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1,988

Sales
Cost
EBIT
tax
Income
Depreciation
NWC
investment
FCFF

3,370,660
3,083,665 (-)
286,995
(122,807)
164,188
61,517 (+)
87,942 (-)
65,379 (-)
72,384

253460
108457
0.427906

AR
inventry
AP

1988
486,657
805,095
239,513

1987 net
446,755
39,902
733,907
71,188
216,365
23,148

Op margin ratio

9.2%

Sales (growth rate)


Cost
EBIT
tax (tax rate)
Income

7.2%

41.0%

Depreciation
NWC
investment
FCFF

CF0

CF1

CF2

CF3

CF4

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

3,370,660 3,613,348 3,873,509 4,152,401 4,451,374


3,083,665
286,995
332,428
356,363
382,021
409,526
(122,807) (136,295) (146,109) (156,629) (167,906)
164,188
196,133
210,254
225,392
241,621
0
61,517
0
0
0
0
87,942
65,379
0
0
0
0
72,384
196,133
210,254
225,392
241,621

Discount rate

FCFF(0)

10%
11%
12%
13%

1,592,050
1,518,173
1,449,301
1,385,023

Op margin ratio

10.1%

Sales (growth rate)


Cost
EBIT
tax (tax rate)
Income

7.2%

41.0%

Depreciation
NWC
investment
FCFF

CF0

CF1

CF2

CF3

CF4

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

3,370,660 3,613,348 3,873,509 4,152,401 4,451,374


3,083,665
286,995
364,948
391,224
419,393
449,589
(122,807) (149,629) (160,402) (171,951) (184,331)
164,188
215,319
230,822
247,442
265,257
0
61,517
0
0
0
0
87,942
65,379
0
0
0
0
72,384
215,319
230,822
247,442
265,257

Discount rate

FCFF(0)

10%
11%

1,747,794
1,666,690

12%
13%

1,591,081
1,520,514

CF5

CF6

CF7

CF8

CF9

CF10

CF11

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

4,771,873

5,115,448

5,483,760

5,878,591

6,301,849

6,755,582

7,241,984

439,012
(179,995)
259,017

470,621
(192,955)
277,667

504,506
(206,847)
297,658

540,830
(221,740)
319,090

579,770
(237,706)
342,064

621,514
(254,821)
366,693

666,263
(273,168)
393,095

0
259,017

0
277,667

0
297,658

0
319,090

0
342,064

0
366,693

0
393,095

CF5

CF6

CF7

CF8

CF9

CF10

CF11

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

4,771,873

5,115,448

5,483,760

5,878,591

6,301,849

6,755,582

7,241,984

481,959
(197,603)
284,356

516,660
(211,831)
304,830

553,860
(227,083)
326,777

593,738
(243,432)
350,305

636,487
(260,960)
375,527

682,314
(279,749)
402,565

731,440
(299,891)
431,550

0
284,356

0
304,830

0
326,777

0
350,305

0
375,527

0
402,565

0
431,550

TV multiple =

(1+g)
(r-g)
Multiple

r=

14

15

16

10%

2.67%

3.13%

3.53%

11%

3.60%

4.06%

4.47%

12%

4.53%

5.00%

5.41%

13%

5.47%

5.94%

6.35%

g = Expected growth rate of CF after Year 11 to eternity

V(L) = (PV of CF1~CF10) + (PV of CF11 ~ eternity)

(PV of CF1~CF10)
Op margin ratio

(PV of CF1~CF10)

r=

9.2%

10.1%

10%

1,592,050

1,747,794

11%

1,518,173

1,666,690

12%

1,449,301

1,591,081

13%

1,385,023

1,520,514

(PV of CF11 ~ eternity) = FCFF(11) x TVM / (1+r) power 10


Op margin ratio

9.2%
(PV of CF11 ~ eternity)

r=

Op margin ratio

Multiple
14

15

16

10%

2,121,771

2,273,327

2,424,882

11%

1,938,187

2,076,629

2,215,071

12%

1,771,925

1,898,491

2,025,057

13%

1,621,217

1,737,018

1,852,819

10.1%
(PV of CF11 ~ eternity)

r=

Multiple
14

15

16

10%

2,121,771

2,273,327

2,424,882

11%

1,938,187

2,076,629

2,215,071

12%

1,771,925

1,898,491

2,025,057

13%

1,621,217

1,737,018

1,852,819

V(L)
Multiple

V(L)

10%
Margin
9.2%

14

15

16

3,713,821

3,865,376

4,016,932

Margin
9.2%

Margin
10.1%

11%

3,456,360

3,594,802

3,733,244

12%

3,221,226

3,347,792

3,474,358

13%

3,006,239

3,122,041

3,237,842

10%

3,869,565

4,021,121

4,172,676

11%

3,604,877

3,743,319

3,881,761

12%

3,363,005

3,489,571

3,616,137

13%

3,141,731

3,257,532

3,373,333

(1+r) power
10
2.594
2.839
3.106
3.395

(1+r) power
10
2.594
2.839
3.106
3.395

Equity Vakue = V(L) - Debt


Debt =

78,689 short term


360,906 Long term
439,595

Equity Value

Margin
9.2%

Margin
10.1%

Multiple

14

15

16

10%

3,274,226

3,425,781

3,577,337

11%

3,016,765

3,155,207

3,293,649

12%
13%

2,781,631

2,908,197

3,034,763

2,566,644

2,682,446

2,798,247

10%

3,429,970

3,581,526

3,733,081

11%

3,165,282

3,303,724

3,442,166

12%
13%

2,923,410
2,702,136

3,049,976
2,817,937

3,176,542
2,933,738

37.45714286

No. of Shares
37,500 thousands

Share Price

Margin
9.2%

Margin
10.1%

Multiple

14

15

16

10%

87.3

91.4

95.4

11%

80.4

84.1

87.8

12%

74.2

77.6

80.9

13%

68.4

71.5

74.6

10%

91.5

95.5

99.5

11%

84.4

88.1

91.8

12%

78.0

81.3

84.7

13%

72.1

75.1

78.2