Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
ED LY
IT 14
IO
N
Issue 30 - July 2014
The e-magazine created especially for active spread bettors and CFD traders
Foundations
of sand?
How to play
the booming
UK housing
market
A day in the
life of a
FTSE binaries
trader by
John Piper
Zak Mirs
MONTHLY
PicK LONMIN
And much, much more - packed full of trade ideas from all our contributors!
Feature Contributors
Robbie Burns aka The Naked Trader
Robbie Burns - The Naked Trader has been a full-time trader since 2001
and has made in excess of a million pounds trading the markets. Hes
also written three editions of his book, Naked Trader and the Naked
Trader Guide to Spreadbetting and runs day seminars using live
markets to explain how he makes money. Robbie hates jargon and loves
simplicity.
Dominic Picarda
Dominic Picarda is a Chartered Market Technician and has been
responsible for the co-ordination of the Investors Chronicles charting
coverage for four years. He is also an Associate Editor of the FT and
frequently speaks at seminars and other trading events. Dominic holds
an MSc in Economic History from the LSE & Political Science.
Editorial List
EditORIAL DIRECTOR
Richard Gill
Editor
Zak Mir
Samuel Rae
Having completed his Economics BSc Degree in Manchester, Samuel
Rae quickly discovered that the retail Forex industry was for him. His
personal trading style combines classic candlestick analysis with a
simple, logical and risk management driven approach to the financial
markets - a strategy that is described and demonstrated in his best
selling book, Diary of a Currency Trader.
Alpesh Patel
Alpesh Patel is the author of 16 investment books, runs his own FSA
regulated asset management firm from London, formerly presented his
own show on Bloomberg TV for three years and has had over 200
columns published in the Financial Times. He provides free online
trading education on www.alpeshpatel.com.
Copywriter
Seb Greenfield
Editorial contributors
Dominic Picarda
Robbie Burns
Alpesh Patel
Richard Jennings
Filipe R Costa
Simon Carter
James Faulkner
Samuel Rae
Anton Kreil
John Piper
CREATIVE DESIGN
Lee Akers
www.cfdmedia.co.uk
Disclaimer
Richard Jennings
Foreword
While it may not be long before China is way ahead of the US in GDP terms, I
would venture to suggest that when you have a command economy and do not
need to consider such peripheral matters such as democracy, free speech, the
environment or even getting GDP figures to be entirely accurate, it aint too
difficult to be number one. Nevertheless, one presumes that with new found
success, Western style openness will eventually penetrate Chinas Great Wall.
Not that we in the West are without our difficulties. It is to be noted how 11 years
after the Iraq invasion in 2003 and in the run up to what was supposed to be a
withdrawal from the strife torn country, one of the worst examples of attempted
nation building is coming apart at the seams. We have been treated to
predictable spikes in gold and crude oil with the ISIS advance. However, it
remains to be seen if the equally predictable consequences of ill advised regime
change and manipulation provide the US and its allies with a Vietnam style defeat
or simply an ongoing geopolitical sore.
From the perspective of Spreadbet Magazine, it could be that the troubles in the
Middle East kill the post financial crisis economic recovery and end the record
equity market bull run for the US. Richard Jennings of Titan Investment Partners
has been championing the bear argument since the turn of the year.
The question now is whether a bubble burst is on its way, not only for stocks in the
US, but also the housing market in the UK. Interestingly enough, it would appear
from commentators doing the rounds currently that a melt-up is now just as
likely as a meltdown, even though we are well on the way in terms of QE tapering
in the US and autumn interest rate rises in the UK. In this months issue we have
several special articles focussing on how to play the UK housing market.
Perhaps, rather ironically, it may be that new QE in the eurozone will actually win
the battle in terms of adding inflationary fire to growth in this troubled space. The
way that US firms such as GE and Pfizer have been looking across the Atlantic to
make deals of late underlines this idea as a possible H2 2014 driver.
Closer to home, I had the pleasure of interviewing a man who I regard as a one
person stock market, and certainly an example of how to be an entrepreneur
of the most active variety: David Lenigas. Although I am aware he may not be
everyones cup of tea, and what is called these days a Marmite character, the 26
minute interview on TipTV was open, informative and gave considerable insight
into how Mr Lenigas ticks, as well as the prospects for the 15 companies he is a
board member of. Read the transcript of the interview on page 18.
Enjoy this months issue and happy trading.
Zak
RIDE THE
VOLATILITY.
Weve delivered tight fixed spreads for two years,* giving you the
reliability and confidence you need however volatile the conditions
might be. Not all spread betting companies can say the same.
Capital Spreads is a trading name of London Capital Group Ltd, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
Contents
08
60
16
24
45
50
70
83
89
Foundations of sand?
James Faulkner of
t1ps.com looks at
the macro picture
for the UK
housing market
30
76
Three small caps to benefit
from the housing boom
James Faulkner of t1ps.com looks at three
companies which look set to see bigger
profits on the back of the UK property boom
36
96
100
108
112
118
122
126
Book Review
SBM reviews the timeless investment classic, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and
the Madness of Crowds
Currency Corner
New SBM contributor Samuel Rae, author of the best selling book Diary of a
Currency Trader, explains why he is bearish on the South African rand
Markets in focus
A comprehensive markets round-up of under and out performers during the month of June
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 7
Titan
Investment
Partners
chalks up a
stunning one
year returns
anniversary
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 9
Titans flagship
Global Macro
account is up a
stunning 150.85%
against a
benchmark
return the MSCI
World Index (in
constant $s)
of 19.58% over
the same period
to the 13 June
2014 (from 1 July
2013).
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 11
A closet index
Investment approach
is most certainly not
applied by Titan.
Reasoned,
contrarian, value
orientated and well
researched asset
allocation is at the
heart of their
model.
The chart below shows the performance of Titans Global Macro Fund versus its benchmark the MSCI
World Index (in constant $s) over the period 01/07/2013 to 30/05/2014.
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 13
+158.94%
Flagship
Global Macro
Returns
+20.71%
MSCI Global
Index Benchmark
FUND RETURN
BENCHMARK RETURN
GLOBAL MACRO
+158.94%
NAT RESOURCES
+104.49%
PREC METALS
+46.84%
SMALL CAP*
+9.45%
GLOBAL MACRO
NATURAL RESOURCES
PRECIOUS METALS
SMALL CAP
Risk Disclaimer - Titans funds use a spread betting account and are leveraged products that involve a higher level of risk to your security and can result in losses of some or all of your
capital invested. Ensure that you fully understand the risks and seek independent advice if necessary. *Spread betting in the UK is currently tax free but this may change in the future.
Authorised
and regulated by |the
14 | www.spreadbetmagazine.com
JulyFCA.
2014 Registration No - 590782
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 15
DAVID TEPPER OF
APPALOOSA
MANAGEMENT
DISTRESSED COMPANY AND CONTRARIAN
INVESTOR EXTRAORDINAIRE
By Richard Jennings CFA, Titan
Investment Partners, & Filipe R. Costa
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 17
In 2009, for
example, Appaloosa
made a whopping
$7bn by buying
distressed financial
stocks (including
BoFA and AIG). In
another example, in
2001, his company
returned 61% by
investing in
distressed bonds.
With his specialty being distressed investments,
Tepper always looks for what other investors would
deem to be the worst companies those that
nobody loves and that are near default. Under
certain conditions, investors overreact and push the
value of these companies too low.
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 19
Final Comments
All Titan Funds operate within a spread betting account which means gains or losses are currently free of tax.
However, legislation can change in the future. Spread betting is a leveraged product which could result in
losses of some or even all of your initial deposit. Ensure you fully understand the risks.
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 21
Long/short flexibility
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 23
Dominic Picarda is a
Chartered Market
Technician and has been
responsible for the
co-ordination of the
Investors Chronicles
charting coverage for four
years. He is also an
Associate Editor of the FT
and frequently speaks at
seminars and other
trading events. Dominic
holds an MSc in Economic
History from the LSE &
Political Science.
Dominic
Picardas
Technical
Take
UK HOUSING
STOCKS
SPECIAL
This creates a favourable backdrop for house builders, which are also in much better financial shape than they have
been in the past. These factors could possibly help support the prices of house building stocks in the near-term,
despite the longer-term risks.
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 25
MJ Gleeson
Bellway
While the house building sector as a whole does not
offer great value right now, Bellway is an
exception. Based on its recent share price of 1,422p,
the Newcastle-headquartered firm has a prospective
dividend yield of 4.5% and is trading on around 1.1
times its net tangible assets. Its finances are sturdily
underpinned too, as it has minimal debt. Based on its
valuation and risk characteristics, the ShareMaestro
model says it should currently be trading at more like
2,240p. These characteristics make it an interesting
proposition to value-orientated investors.
BELLWAY CHART
GLEESON CHART
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 27
Berkeley Group
If any part of the countrys residential property
market is in a bubble, it is surely London.
Inflation-adjusted prices have long since passed their
previous 2007 peak, while valuations are through
the roof. According to Land Registry data released
in February, the price of an inner London home was
10.4 times median earnings. Even in humble
Lewisham, the ratio was 8.5 times; while in posh
Kensington and Chelsea it was an eye-watering 31.3
times. Based on price/book ratio, London-focused
builder Berkeley is no bargain itself, its share price of
2,239p supported by net assets of only 1,064p per
share.
BERKELEY CHART
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 29
www.t1ps.com
UK Housing Market
James Faulkner of
t1ps.com takes a
macro look at the
UK housing market
In market economies, prices are
fundamentally driven by the interplay
of demand and supply. Yet the housing
market stands apart, in that demand
is acutely impacted by the availability
and price of credit. This point is crucial,
especially if we accept that underlying
demand for housing is relatively
inelastic (everyone needs somewhere
to live!), as it becomes clear that
monetary policy is the chief
determinant of price in the
housing market.
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 31
UK Housing Market
www.t1ps.com
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 33
UK Housing Market
www.t1ps.com
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 35
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 37
David Lenigas
Zak Mir
Interviews
DAVID LENIGAS
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 39
David Lenigas
The
Kvanefjeld
deposit is the
largest rare
earth
deposit in the
worlD.
The Kvanefjeld deposit is the largest rare earth
deposit in the world. The only issue theyve got
right now is how the Greenland government
handles the concept of uranium and thorium within
that massive sort of billion tonne resource. The
interesting thing about what were looking at in
Greenland, particularly where we are going to start
our exploration efforts, is indications that we have
quite significant rare earths without the uranium
and without the thorium and that is going to be our
first exploration priority target. So thats the Rare
Earth side which I see as exciting. The lithium side is
going to blow the lights out big.
Zak: Right.
David: I mean Ive said publicly Ive been a mining
engineer now for too many years. This to me is a
world class deposit. Its a simple quarry. Ive been
involved in complicated mines, complicated
metallurgy. Copper, gold, silver, nickel, coal, you
know? This is a simple quarry. The metallurgys
solved.
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 41
Fund managers
do not play shares
these days, its a
different world
compared to 2008.
This market is
driven by retail
interest and
sentiment.
David: When I was a young man, there was an old
gentleman called Frank and he actually had a better
batting average than Sir Donald Bradman. He
actually had a batting average for his career of 102.
And old Frank told me, he said, Dave, the best
place to find gold is underneath where the old
timers found it and that has been a lot of what I
look at.
If we look at Horse Hill, people have known about it
for a long time. The majors have had it, the majors
have dropped it. There was a whole area of time in
this country when it was difficult to get things
permitted. Its not fracking, its conventional and
that is the opportunity.
David Lenigas
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 43
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 45
Investors and fund managers alike are always looking for new ways to gain
any advantage possible relative to the wider market, the veritable holy
grail, if you will, in the seemingly endless pursuit of the production of
what is called alpha excess returns attributable to investing skill.
Some dig very deep inside company financial
statements. Others look into all kinds of technical
indicators in an attempt to identify a discernible and
tradable pattern. A few break the insider trading
rules. And there are even those who trade purely on
their emotions and impulses. One way or another, if
the nonsense that is taught in traditional investment
qualifications is correct, namely that markets are
efficient (they are not), then they are doomed to
fail in this quest.
Eugene
Fama
As regular readers
know, we beg to
differ
wholeheartedly on
these assertions and
believe that, in fact,
asset classes as a
whole are largely
mispriced most of the
time.
We also have empirical evidence that under certain
conditions there are really sudden and wide-ranging
changes exogenous shocks. Just look at some
recent past bubbles. Is it possible to argue that house
prices were rational until 2007 and indeed that
London house prices are today? The inflated prices
until 2007 were partly irrational and ditto with
London housing stock now.
So, if prices always have an element of irrationality
embedded within them, then this is good news for
active investors: it means that we generate alpha
precisely by going against the masses. Looking at
past prices in a certain way is sometimes actually
enough to make a profit, as has indeed been shown
by many academics.
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 47
Long/short flexibility
stock positions
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 49
BINARY CORNER
A DAY IN THE
LIFE OF A
FTSE BINARIES
TRADER
BY JOHN PIPER
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 51
Market opens
The early action supported my view, with a failed
break above 6,300 (meaning the FTSE poked its
head above 6,300 and promptly fell back) and at
this point I bought the following bets:
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 53
4. The FTSE then fell away and you can see that
a five-wave form developed.
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 55
I bought in at 8.9 and you can see from the chart that
the bet went up into the 30s just after 4pm. That is a
potential return of around 200% on the risk incurred.
All in all a good days trading on the FTSE which illustrates quite well the way in which I approach markets. I did not get out at the best levels on either bet
but the end result covered the cost of those gold
earrings and I am most certainly not complaining.
If you want to see the video clips I recorded as I did these trades please visit my website at www.johnpiper.info
Written by JOHN PIPER, professional trader and best selling author of THE WAY TO TRADE, BINARY
TRADING and BINARY BETTING
Email: jptt@aweber.com Web: www.johnpiper.info
FTSE to end down >50
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 57
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 59
www.t1ps.com
THREE SMALL
CAP STOCKS
SET TO BENEFIT
FROM THE
HOUSING BOOM
By JAMES FAULKNER OF T1PS.com
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 61
www.t1ps.com
AGA CHART
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 63
www.t1ps.com
The companys
forward order
position is nothing
short of bulging, with
98% sold for the
current financial
year and over 70% and
25% pre-sold for the
2016 and 2017 financial
years respectively.
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 65
www.t1ps.com
S&U CHART
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 67
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 69
Zak Mirs
Monthly
Pick
Recommendation Summary:
Technicals:
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 71
Fundamentals:
In terms of the fundamental argument in favour of
Lonmin, it may be worth asking the obvious question
and attempting to get it out of the way before focussing
on the nitty-gritty of this situation.
LONMIN CHART
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 73
Capital Spreads is a trading name of London Capital Group Ltd, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 75
Sporting Index
SPORTING INDEX
World Cup
Spread
Betting
Update &
The Open
Preview
76 | www.spreadbetmagazine.com | July 2014
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 77
Sporting Index
As I write this on Friday a pang of sadness comes over me. For today is the
first time that we havent had a World Cup game since the tournament
started. It does at least give fans, bettors and the traders at Sporting Index
24 hours to draw breath after a phenomenal start to the tournament.
There have been goals aplenty 137 in fact after the
group stages. Sporting Index predicted there would
be 158 goals in the whole World Cup that has now
been pushed right up to 175.5. There were 18 games
in the group stage in which one team scored at least
three times.
Its a high-class
last-16 and
assuming the big
guns all make it
through, matches
will surely be far
tighter with so
much at stake.
France should have eased past Nigeria by then and
its worth having a small buy of Les Blues for
outright glory as they look a totally different side to
the one that finished bottom of the pool four years
ago amid internal strife.
Switzerland were battered by France but there were
encouraging signs in their other two group wins and
theyll give Argentina a game.
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 79
Price subject to fluctuation. *New clients only, T's & C's apply, account opening subject to suitability checks.
SPORTINGINDEX.COM/WORLDCUP
LIONEL MESSI
ISNT THE ONLY
GAME-CHANGER
ARGENTINA WORLD CUP GOALS:
10.8-11.2 (6 FROM 3 SO FAR)
Think the World Cup couldnt get any more exciting? Follow the rest
of it with a sports spread bet and completely change the way you
watch the game. Trade Argentina Tournament goals at 10.8-11.2
(6 from 3 so far) and try keeping your emotions in check every time it's
buried into the top corner and you've bought goals (or every time it's
tipped over the bar and you've sold). And thats just one of loads of
markets on all remaining teams. World Cup excitement guaranteed.
Open an account and well
give you a free 250 bet after
placing 3 bets risking 20
each and another free 250
bet after placing 5 more.*
.COM
80 | www.spreadbetmagazine.com | July 2014
0
0
5
EE
IN FR
BETS
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 81
Sporting Index
Subscribe
Leaderboard Index
A prediction on where every player in the
tournament will finish. Points are awarded on the
following basis: 80pts if the player finishes 1st, 40pts
for 2nd, 30pts for 3rd, 25pts for 4th, 20pts for 5th,
15pts for 6th, 10 pts for 7th and 5pts for 8th.
Even leading players will be available at a
reasonable spread. Recent US Open winner Martin
Kaymer will be well-fancied to double in July and if
he turns up in the same form he will be worth
supporting.
Finishing Position
This market allows you to bet on where every player
in a tournament will finish right from first place to
bottom place.
Hotshots
How many points a selected group of golfers will
get in a tournament. For example, we might lump
together the four top European golfers in a
Hotshots bet at The Open.
Points are usually awarded based on the following:
25pts per named player finishing in the top 10, plus
a 50pts bonus if any of the named players wins the
tournament.
My Bankers
Simply pick three players for a specific round. 50
points are awarded if all three of your chosen
players win their matches and 10 points per chosen
player that wins by four or more strokes.
Winning Score
A prediction on the winning score at the end of a
tournament.
Sporting Index might make the spread for The Open
278- 280. If the winning player hits 68, 69, 64 and
70, they would make-up 271.
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 83
Evil Diaries
The man the Daily Mail dubbed The King of the Short Sellers, Evil
Knievil (aka Simon Cawkwell) is Britains most feared bear-raider.
He mostly famously exposed the fiction that were the accounts
of Robert Maxwells Communication Corporation, an event which
helped to earn his pen name.
9th June
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 85
11th June
I bought Concha (CHA) in a placing about five years
ago (when it sported another name). I paid 25,000
then. Yesterday, I sold out for 17,000 and I reckon I
got a jolly good price at 2.15p. There is a few pence
in the balance sheet and a whopping 25m in hope
value. It is surely impossible to see this valuation
justified and the price must collapse when the
placing deal is announced. To me, this is a clear
virtually risk-free short.
13th June
I still do not understand what is going on at Clear
Leisure (CLP). Does anybody?
Just to stay in the swing I yesterday bought 100,000
Gulf Keystone (GKP) at 75p. I am no judge of these
extraordinarily labyrinthine developments in the
Middle East but it does seem as if Kurdistan is doing
quite well. Thats bullish for Gulf Keystone. My only
regret is that I forgot that Gulf Keystone has
upgraded to a full listing which meant stamp duty.
Grrrrrr.... I kissed goodbye to them this morning at
83p.
20th June
I took 20p profit on MySale (MYSL) by selling at
201p. But I doubt that that was the correct approach.
The fact is that The Mashley and Phil are very thick
pals. Further, The Mashley is the UKs finest retailer
(or so I am told). He thinks MySale will work.
(Otherwise he would not have bet.) MySale is
therefore probably still a good long term bet and,
most unusually, may go above the flotation price of
226p.
16th June
20th June
18th June
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 87
Providing direction
for your investment
ROBBIE
BURNS
FX
Futures and Options
Physical FX
OUR SERVICES
Advisory
Execution Only
Market Analysis
Optimise
Platinum
Strategise
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 89
I dont personally expect to get up to much trading this summer as our market will be nearly
closed by the time I wake up in the US. However, I have noticed some interesting companies
that have recently come down 30% or more off their highs. That is, quality companies that
have been hit for, I think, temporary reasons.
So Ive been buying some of these, expecting to hold them over the summer while they
recover.
So here is my list of potential summer recover play sizzlers! Ive already snapped them all
up as I write except for Asos, where I am still waiting.
Telecom Plus
This has fallen a long way from its high, but looks
a great one to snap up near recent lows for
potential big returns. It provides utilities, phone
and broadband services sold by independent
distributors. The company reckons profits will be
up to 63m soon a big jump.
2
Theres a nice dividend too. Customer service
is highlighted as excellent by Which? Magazine,
and the company is bullish on its prospects
after recently buying its energy customers from
N Power, enabling it to ensure a leap in profits. If
it ends up being a cold winter, watch for massive
gains by next summer.
Asos
ASOS CHART
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 91
Iomart
IOMART CHART
Vectura
VECTURA CHART
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 93
In the meantime if you want to read more by me, the good news is that the new
edition of my book Naked Trader has just been published! You can get Naked
Trader 4 only from my website over the summer and from Amazon from September.
The book updates Naked Trader 3 which I wrote in 2011 a lot has happened in the
market since then and I cover all the changes. There are tons of ideas, trader stories,
psychology, biggest trading mistakes and 20 trading strategies to make money.
Its only 14.99 and the first 500 who order it get a free pack of Naked Trader T-bags
made from only the best tea!
To get
ader
Naked Tr
e
4 click th
he
book to t
left
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 95
Anton Kreil
Anton Kreil
How NOT to be
the Monkey in
the Market
part 2
Following up on last months interview with Zak Mir, Anton Kreil gives more
valuable information on how not to be a monkey in the market by doing the
opposite of what you are told to do by the brokers.
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 97
Anton Kreil
The responsible
approach and the
approach that all
professional traders
take is to not abuse
leverage and
understand how their
liabilities look from the
outset.
You will spend the rest of your life (or until you
realise it doesnt work), opening spread betting
accounts with small amounts of money and
gambling it to zero. This is something professional
traders call The Dumb Money Merry Go Round
or in this edition the Monkey Merry Go Round.
You must open your trading account with a decent
amount of money (in the UK over 10,000 and in the
US $25,000+). This will allow you in the first instance
to have 50,000 ($75,000) exposure and
significantly reduce the chances of you losing
money and massively increase your chances of
being profitable. There is a minimum requirement in
terms of capital that is essential in terms of enabling
you to take a professional approach. We are being
responsible by telling you this!
iii) Dont open a spread betting account before
proving you can make money consistently. Spread
betting was invented in the 1970s by Investors Gold
(IG) Index for the retail market and is now provided
by multiple vendors / platforms. No professional
traders spread bet or use spread betting platforms.
It is a product that is 100% designed for the retail
market, to enable them to open small trading
accounts so they can gamble in the financial
markets. CFDs were invented for hedge funds
primarily, by Merrill Lynch, in 1992. They are an
institutional level product. Hedge funds are offshore
investment vehicles and do not have tax liabilities
anyway, so they dont care about spread betting.
CFDs do everything for them.
Professional Trading
Masterclass (PTM) Video Series
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 99
best of
the blog
JUNE 2014
Visit www.spreadbetmagazine.com/blog
for our latest calls on global markets
July 2014
| www.spreadbetmagazine.com | 101
http://www.spreadbetmagazine.com/blog/titan-inv-partners-hedge-funds-and-why-size-matters-the-rare.html
http://www.spreadbetmagazine.com/blog/quindell-portfolio-lucien-miers-v-richard-jennings-of-titan.html
July 2014
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http://www.spreadbetmagazine.com/blog/james-faulkner-on-sprue-aegis-small-cap-of-theweek.html
http://www.spreadbetmagazine.com/blog/zak-mir-on-crude-and-the-oil-majors.html
July 2014
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Risk Warning: Please note that Opes Associates Limited t/a Opes Academy is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and as such is not permitted to offer nancial or investment advice to UK resident investors, whether or not the intended investments are regulated or unregulated. We strongly encourage you to consult an FCA-authorised Independent Financial Adviser before committing to any form of investment. Trading and investing often involves a very high degree of risk. Past results are not indicative of future returns and nancial instruments can go down
as well as up resulting in you receiving less than you invested. Do not assume that any recommendations, insights, charts, theories, or philosophies will ensure protable investment. Spread betting, trading binary options and CFD's carry a high risk to your capital, can be very volatile and prices may move rapidly against you. Only speculate with money you can afford to lose as you may lose more than your original deposit and be required to make further payments. Spread betting may not be suitable for all customers, so ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent
advice if necessary.
July 2014
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Book Review
Book Review
In this
internationally
renowned classic
book there is a
multitude of
information that
traders can use to
their advantage in
understanding the
herding nature of
investing.
BY CHARLES MACKAY
A person is intelligent; people are stupid. Whoever once said that must
have been referring to stock market manias. Its an astonishing and
unsettling fact that, although first published in 1841, this book describes
trends and manias that are as relevant today as they were back then.
Book Review
EXTRAORDINARY
POPULAR
DELUSIONS AND THE
MADNESS OF CROWDS
Bubble trouble
Perhaps the best known story is that of The
Mississippi Scheme which details the life of John
Law the Scottish economist, gambler, banker,
murderer, royal advisor, exile, rake and adventurer
(and Evil Knievils ancestor). In 1716 he established
the Banque Generale, a state chartered bank with
the power to issue unbacked paper currency. He
believed that increasing the money in circulation
would benefit commerce.
MacKays basic
premise that
humans are
dominated by
greed and fear
when it comes to
money states
that you too will
succumb to
temptation when
its prevalent all
around you. In
understanding the
herding nature
of investing.
July 2014
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Book Review
Mackays
narration is
intelligent and
detailed; he even
throws in a good
sprinkling of
witty anecdotes
(the sailor who
ate a prize tulip
bulb with his
herring
breakfast
thinking it to
be an onion and
spent months in
jail as a
result).
July 2014
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Currency Corner
CURRENCY CORNER
WHY I AM
STRONGLY
BEARISH ON THE
SOUTH AFRICAN
RAND
BY Samuel Rae
July 2014
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Currency Corner
As soon as a signal
appears that concurs
with my strongly bullish
USD/ZAR bias, I will enter
long with an initial
target of yearly highs
somewhere between
11.3000 and 11.4000.
So how am I looking to register a position? Again, for
those of you not familiar with my strategy, I
generally use traditional candlestick patterns to both
enter trades and dictate my risk management
parameters.
USD/ZAR CHART
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July 2014
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Alpesh
on the Markets
WHAT MEN CAN LEARN FROM WOMEN
I write to you from Singapore, the financial centre made famous by the
trader Nick Leeson, the man who personified the excess, macho culture
of the trading world. Interestingly, have you ever noticed how there are
no trading or financial scandals involving women? No films have ever
been made about the Fox of Wall Street, have they?
Ive just given a speech to a room full of
entrepreneurs and was struck by how many are
female far more than I would have found in the
UK. In a room with about a thousand entrepreneurs,
about 40% were women. But this isnt reflected in
the boardrooms of listed companies. There can
be little doubt about male dominance when only
around one out of a hundred of the UKs largest
companies are headed up by a female CEO. Even
in the US, a similar lowly proportion of women head
up Fortune 500 companies.
These figures simply do not reflect the reality of
business ownership. Research shows that 46% of all
US businesses are owned by women. Whats more,
the girls seem to be pretty good at running
businesses too.
Alpesh B Patel
Alpesh is a hedge fund manager who set up his asset management company in 2004. His
Sharescope Special Edition has outperformed every UK companys fund manager over the past
decade, as well as Warren Buffett. He has written over 200 columns for the Financial Times and
presented his own investment show on Bloomberg TV for three years. He is a former Visiting
Fellow in Business & Industry at Oxford University and the author of 18 books on investing.
July 2014
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July 2014
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Technology Corner
Technology Corner
TECHNOLOGY CORNER
THE ESSENTIAL
HOLIDAY
SURVIVAL KIT
The Bag
OK, so for the unimportant things like clothes,
toiletries, passports, tickets etc. you should
probably look at getting yourself an actual suitcase,
but for your essential items, you need to grab hold of
the Proporta Gadget Bag (24.95). Padded
lining and durable casing mean that your gadgets
will be protected no matter what those baggage
handlers do to it, and clever little apertures mean
that you can run headphone and charging cables
through it as required.
By Simon Carter
With summer upon us and the Great British weather just waiting to let
us down, many of us will be turning our thoughts to packing our bags,
jumping on a plane and heading to sunnier climes. Youve done your
research, youve found the perfect spot and youre ready to go. But,
wait, what should you pack? Dont worry, SBM has you covered!
Though the
price may be a
little rich for
some, the five
times optical
zoom lens with
full manual
control, RAW
output for
serious
photographers,
Background
Defocus and a
host of other
clever little
features make
this snapper a
gem.
The Camera
Youre not going to want to take your top-of-the-range DSLR and all its attachments out on every trip, so you
should invest in a solid point-and-shoot too. While many are deriding this area of the market, with claims that
smartphones can more than serve the snap shot function, youd be hard pressed to find a phone that comes
anywhere near matching the picture quality of the Canon PowerShot S120 (330). Though the price may be a
little rich for some, the five times optical zoom lens with full manual control, RAW output for serious
photographers, Background Defocus and a host of other clever little features make this snapper a gem.
July 2014
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Technology Corner
Technology Corner
The Apps
Downtime
If youre going abroad, there are two must have apps that
you need to download before you travel. The first is
Google Translate (Free) which breaks language
barriers across an incredible 80 languages. Converse
normally (well, as normally as you can while speaking into
a phone) and Translate will do what it says on the tin and
translate into a language of your choice. You can also type
in those confusing road signs, or take a picture of that
bewildering menu and let Translate do its thing. No more
shouting in English for you! Best of all is that the
languages can be downloaded for offline use meaning
that you neednt rack up a huge data roaming bill while on
your travels.
Youre on your holiday to relax, and what better way to do so than to fill your case with Lee Childs novels, or
the latest from Zak Mir or Robbie Burns? OK, so it wont be news that you no longer need an armful of
paperbacks. But with eReaders now ranging from the sublime to the ridiculous, you need to get the right one.
And, in this case, you should probably stick with the most famous name of all, the Kindle Paperwhite (109).
Although the functions of an eReader may seem somewhat unimpressive (it displays books, right?), the way
that the Kindle handles that task is astonishing and will leave you wondering why we ever bothered with
something as primitive as paper! The good news is that the Paperwhite also handles PDFs so you can take Mir,
Burns and SBM with you around the world!
The Absolute
Essential
You can have all the gadgets in the world,
but if youre getting bitten by bugs like a
six-foot corn on the cob, your holiday is
going to be ruined. So invest a little in the
catchily titled Electronic Pest Repeller
Unique Pest Control (26.99) which uses
electromagnetic and ultrasonic waves to
deter those winged nasties. According to the
blurb, it also works against mice, rats,
cockroaches, ants and fleas, but if your hotel
has a problem with those, youre probably
better off sleeping elsewhere.
When not reading you may be tempted to play the odd game on your smartphone. Those pesky screens
though. They seem so big, but as soon as you start prodding onscreen buttons, suddenly the screen doesnt
seem so spacious. Fortunately the guys down at Gametel (12.95) feel your pain and have produced a
Bluetooth powered controller which clips onto your phone and allows you to play with actual buttons. The
range of games is slightly limited, but itll add a new dimension to your smartphone.
Happy Holidays!
July 2014
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Markets In Focus
Markets In Focus
MARKETS IN
FOCUS june 2014
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