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R
EE E K L Y
P
O
Blow by Blow
On
R
Bullions,
T
Base metals,
29 DEC 02 JAN 2015

Energy

MAJOR EVENTS
Gold advanced the most in more than two weeks amid speculation that China, the
worlds biggest consumer, will take more measures to bolster the economy, boosting
demand for the precious metal as a store of value.
The Peoples Bank of China plans to temporarily waive a requirement for lenders to
set aside reserves for some deposits, people with knowledge of the matter said. Gold
surged 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as central banks increased
money supply on an unprecedented scale. Gold has rebounded almost 6 percent from
a four-year low reached in November as China lowered interest rates last month to
spur economic growth and Japan expanded its unprecedented stimulus program. The
moves rekindled concern that global inflation could rise even as U.S. consumer costs
stay below the Federal Reserves goal. Speculation that China will do more to support
the economy is creating demand for gold. At some point with all this money in the
system, we could see some concern about inflation. Gold futures for February delivery
climbed 1.9 percent to settle at $1,195.30 an ounce at 1:40 p.m. on the Comex in New
York, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since Dec. 9. Prices declined 1.9
percent in the previous three sessions.
Natural gas slumped below $3 per million British thermal units in New York for the
first time since 2012 on speculation that record production will overwhelm demand
for the heating fuel.
Futures settled at the lowest in 27 months and have plunged 26 percent in
December, heading for the biggest one-month drop since July 2008, as mild weather
and record production erased a surplus to year-ago levels for the first time in two
years. Temperatures will be mostly above average in the eastern half of the U.S.
through Dec. 30.

Gold Advances
Most in Two
Weeks on China
Stimulus
Speculation.

Natural Gas Drops

Below $3 for First
Time Since 2012.

Natural gas for January delivery fell 2.3 cents, or 0.8 percent, to settle at $3.007 per
million Btu on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $2.973, the
lowest intraday price since Sept. 26, 2012. Volume was 54 percent below the 100-day
average for the time of day at 2:32 p.m. Gas dropped 13 percent this week, a fifth
straight weekly decline.
Copper got squeezed on the expectations that the Industrial data from China due to be
released tomorrow would remain weak. China consumes more than 40 percent of
Copper and the debacle in its demand can crumble the non ferrous metals especially
Copper.
Meanwhile, the volumes remained laggard as the traders still remained on holidays
due to Christmas. Gains in Dollar were troubling Dollar denominated currencies. In
foreign exchange markets, US Dollar remained on the higher side of the spectrum
compared to Euro.
The Dollar is now at 28 months highs against the Euro forcing traders to bet lower on
the commodities like Copper. These commodities have also faced crisis on account of
growing expectations of supplies in coming days. This month, U.S. gross domestic
product rose 5.0% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations for a growth rate of
4.3% and up from 3.9% in the three months to June. On MCX, Copper was trading at Rs
405.6 per kg, up 0.33 percent. The prices are expected to move lower but not
significantly as the volumes are not progressing forward indicating lack of volatile
activity.

Expectations of
Weak Chinese
Data Squeeze
Copper.

ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE & TIME

DESCRIPTION

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

Dec 30 7:30pm

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

4.4%

4.9%

8:30pm

CB Consumer Confidence

94.6

88.7

Dec 31 7:00pm

Unemployment Claims

287K

280K

8:15pm

Chicago PMI

60.2

60.8

8:30pm

Pending Home Sales m/m

0.6%

-1.1%

9:00pm

Crude Oil Inventories

7.3M

10:30pm

Natural Gas Storage

-49B

Jan 1 All Day

Bank Holiday

Jan 2 8:15pm

Final Manufacturing PMI

54.1

53.7

8:30pm

ISM Manufacturing PMI

57.6

58.7

8:30pm

Construction Spending m/m

0.4%

1.1%

8:30pm

ISM Manufacturing Prices

43.1

44.5

GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD showed choppy movement,
tested the support level of 26500 and
there is also trendline support. Now, if
it is able to sustain above 27300 then
next resistance level is seen around
27800. On other hand if it maintain
below 26500 then bearish movement
take it towards the next support level
of 26000.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
above 27300 for the targets of 27800
with stop loss of 26400.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

26500

26050

25525

27350

27800

28200

SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER on daily charts showed
sideways movement last week, found
support around 35800 and closed
above to it. Now, if it sustain above
38000 then next resistance is seen in
the range of 39300-40000. On lower
side maintain below 35830 then next
support is seen around 34500. If it is
closed below 34500 then it could test
recent bottom of 33500.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 35800 for
the target of 33500, with stop loss of
39200.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

35800

34500

33600

38200

39450

40600

CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Crude oil last week showed
sideways movement found support of
psychological level of 3500 and
consolidate around it. Now, if it sustain
below 3500 then bears may again
active and find next support around
3100. If some correction occurs and
maintains above 3800 then 4000 will
act as major resistance for it.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
sell below 3500 for the target of 3300,
with stop loss of 3750.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

3435

3125

2885

3765

4060

4350

COPPER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper last week showed bearish
movement and closed around 400.
Important trendline has been broken
and its also look like a small head and
shoulder now if it is sustain below 400
then it will move towards 390 next
important support. On the other hand
immediate resistance is seen near 411,
if it is closed above this resistance
then next resistance will be seen at
418.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 400, with stop loss of 412 for the
target of 390.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

397.80

394.50

389.80

406.40

410.70

415

DISCLAIMER

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