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NETHERLANDS
CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK 2015
CONTENTS
CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK 2015
15
HOT TOPICS
RECOVERY PLAY
COMPETITIVE PRICING
GLOBAL CAPITAL FLOWS
WEIGHT OF CAPITAL
APPETITE FOR DEBT
STRONG FUNDAMENTALS
INTRODUCTION
CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK 2015
30%
GR
25%
ES
20%
15%
EU-28
10%
IE
FR
PT
IT
BE
DK
5%
NL
DE
UK
0%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
THE NETHERLANDS
ECONOMY
COMPETITIVE ECONOMY
5.9 BILLION
TOTAL
UNITED KINGDOM
638 M (11%)
Q1-Q3
2014
DOMESTIC
2,073 M (35%)
UNITED STATES
1,348 M (23%)
GERMANY
1,327 M (22%)
OTHER
545 M (9%)
Figure 2 Capital flows in The Netherlands
9
CAPITAL FLOWS
INTERNATIONAL ACTIVITY
65%
46%
Office
Retail
Industrial
Residential
Other
7
6
35%
4
3
2014 Q3
54%
2013
69%
2012
74%
2011
31%
26%
x EUR Bn
9
78%
Foreign
2010
17%
83%
2009
21%
79%
2008
48%
52%
2007
42%
58%
2006
33%
67%
2005
2004
59%
41%
Domestic
22%
2
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
YTD
11
DEBT MARKET
THE RETURN OF FOREIGN LENDERS
COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE-BACKED
SECURITIES
x Million
300
Max LTV
CUSTOMISED
FINANCING SOLUTIONS
100%
Max loan
250
75%
200
50%
150
100
25%
50
0
Q1
Q2
Q3
2010
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2011
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
0%
2014
CAPITAL MARKETS
THE PERFORMANCE OF REAL ESTATE
YIELD COMPRESSION
In line with property markets across Europe, the
Netherlands is facing a renewed yield compression.
Capital values are carefully rising, and, instigated
by accelerating investor activity and anticipated
COMPETITIVE PRICING
AND FAVOURABLE
GROWTH POTENTIAL
%
Current yield
Cycle low
FAVOURABLE PRICING
Assets in the Netherlands are still favourably
priced compared to other core countries in Europe.
Prime yields in Paris and London for example, are
exceptionally tight with levels below 4%. Although
German markets seemingly provide slightly more
favourable returns, current yields in prime locations
have already dropped below pre-crisis levels. Prime
yields in Amsterdam on the other hand currently
still supersede the former cycle low, which might
indicate assets are still relatively undervalued.
Compared to other core countries with strong
economic fundamentals, yields in the Netherlands
remain favourable with prime yields moving around
5.4% (NIY) up to 90 BPs above prime German
markets and 165 BPs above prime UK markets.
Cycle high
5
4
3
2
-1
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
-2
1996
Amsterdam
Madrid
Frankfurt
London City
Stockholm
Munich
Paris
London WE
OUTLOOK
PROSPECTS FOR THE NETHERLANDS
RENEWED OPPORTUNITIES
A major example of an emerging asset class is the
Dutch multifamily residential market. For years, this
commercial market segment had been squeezed
between directly subsidised home ownership and
a strong indirectly subsidised social housing sector.
Triggered by austerity measures, the playing field
of multifamily residential has now opened up to
international investors.
CONTACT
CBRE TEAM
For more information regarding the Netherlands
investment market, please contact:
MACHIEL WOLTERS
RAPHAL RIETEMA
Director
Research and Consulting
+31 (0)20 626 2691
machiel.wolters@cbre.com
Consultant
Research and Consulting
+31 (0)20 626 2691
raphael.rietema@cbre.com
BART VERHELST
Executive Director
Capital Markets
+31 (0)20 626 2691
bart.verhelst@cbre.com
CBRE B.V.
Gustav Mahlerlaan 405
1082 MK Amsterdam
Postal address 7971
1008 AD Amsterdam
+31 (0)20 626 26 91
+ FOLLOW US
@CBRENederland
linkedin.com/company/cbre-nederland
www.cbre.nl
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15
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