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Anlisis de carteras 3 - Anlisis de sensibilidad para un modelo con opciones

En el archivo Anlisis de carteras 2 - Modelo con opciones, vimos que cuando el inversor compra opciones sobre las accio
medio de la cartera desciende de aproximadamente el 9.8% a cerca del 9.4% y el VAR disminuye de una prdida de aprox
a una prdida de cerca del 6.0%.

Utilizando este mismo ejemplo, se puede emplear un anlisis de sensibilidad con los grficos de tornado de @RISK para d
las 5 entradas inciertas (las de las celdas azules) que tienen los mayores efectos sobre el resultado de la cartera, con o si
muestran son una novedad de @RISK 6.0. Muestran cmo el resultado medio de la cartera vara con cada una de las entr
mayor longitud que aparecen en la parte superior corresponden a las acciones con los mayores efectos sobre el resultado
En este caso, la accin 3 tiene con diferencia el mayor efecto, por lo que la accin 3 es sin duda la responsable de la varia

opciones

a opciones sobre las acciones, el resultado


de una prdida de aproximadamente el 7.4%

ornado de @RISK para determinar cules son


o de la cartera, con o sin opciones. Los que se
con cada una de las entradas. Las barras de
efectos sobre el resultado medio de la cartera.
a responsable de la variacin de esta cartera.

Modelo de ejemplo de bsqueda de objetivos var

Palisade Corporation

Entradas conocidas
Precio actual de las acciones
Acciones compradas
Tiempo que se conservarn (en aos)
Tasa de crecimiento anual media
Volatibilidad anual
Precio de ejercicio de la opcin
Opciones compradas
Acciones por opcin
Precio por opcin
Tasa libre de riesgo

Accin1
$25.47
1000
0.5
12.47%
25.34%
$24.00
3
100
$88.23
5.50%

Accin2
$33.42
2000
0.5
24.14%
19.85%
$32.00
2
100
$88.68

Accin3
$92.97
1500
0.5
16.86%
29.74%
$90.00
4
100
$515.60

Accin4
$41.33
500
0.5
22.54%
22.36%
$40.00
1
100
$150.17

Accin5
$37.48
1500
0.5
18.22%
22.06%
$36.00
2
100
$123.42

Entradas inciertas
Precio de la accin al vencimiento

#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

Salidas
Resultados de las acciones
Resultado de la cartera sin opciones
Valores de opciones al vencimiento
Resultado de la cartera con opciones

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

Estadsticos de resumen sin opciones


Resultado medio de la cartera
Probabilidad de retorno positivo
VAR del resultado de la cartera

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

Estadsticos de resumen con opciones


Resultado medio de la cartera
Probabilidad de retorno positivo
VAR del resultado de la cartera

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

Nota: Los grficos de tornado de la derecha corresponden a una


ejecucin concreta de la simulacin. Si vuelve a ejecutar la
simulacin, obtendr resultados ligeramente diferentes.
Adems, los estadsticos de resumen anteriores "cobrarn vida"
al volver a ejecutar la simulacin.

Pgina 3

Modelo de ejemplo de bsqueda de objetivos var

Palisade Corporation

Clculos de Black-Scholes para las opciones


Accin1 Accin2 Accin3
d1
0.57491 0.575513 0.390336
d2
0.39576 0.435176 0.180077
N(d1)
0.282676 0.282472 0.348144
N(d2)
0.346141 0.331717 0.428546
Precio
$88.23
$88.68 $515.60

Accin4 Accin5
0.459819
0.5126
0.301687 0.356626
0.322823 0.304115
0.381445 0.360686
$150.17 $123.42

Pgina 4

Mes
1/1/1998
2/1/1998
3/1/1998
4/1/1998
5/1/1998
6/1/1998
7/1/1998
8/1/1998
9/1/1998
10/1/1998
11/1/1998
12/1/1998
1/1/1999
2/1/1999
3/1/1999
4/1/1999
5/1/1999
6/1/1999
7/1/1999
8/1/1999
9/1/1999
10/1/1999
11/1/1999
12/1/1999
1/1/2000
2/1/2000
3/1/2000
4/1/2000
5/1/2000
6/1/2000
7/1/2000
8/1/2000
9/1/2000
10/1/2000
11/1/2000
12/1/2000
1/1/2001
2/1/2001
3/1/2001
4/1/2001
5/1/2001
6/1/2001
7/1/2001
8/1/2001
9/1/2001
10/1/2001
11/1/2001
12/1/2001

Precios de cierre
Accin1 Accin2
7.32
2.99
7.70
2.98
7.81
3.10
7.78
3.09
9.08
3.35
9.03
3.37
8.29
3.48
7.21
3.02
6.38
2.67
6.42
2.55
7.03
2.69
7.16
2.84
7.65
3.17
8.72
3.39
8.41
3.47
8.15
3.53
8.21
3.88
7.89
3.72
8.56
3.68
8.42
3.76
8.08
3.51
8.43
3.49
7.44
3.28
8.13
3.90
9.70
3.84
10.93
4.01
10.78
3.89
10.38
3.94
10.82
3.92
10.29
4.02
10.27
3.96
9.84
3.83
10.34
4.08
11.25
4.00
12.05
4.34
12.28
4.49
13.05
4.52
12.69
4.42
12.72
4.72
11.67
4.80
12.60
4.91
11.67
5.10
10.75
5.25
11.26
5.24
10.83
5.14
12.35
5.20
11.46
5.28
12.25
5.66

Accin3
17.23
18.37
18.77
19.28
21.46
21.01
19.94
18.43
19.24
19.08
20.78
20.67
23.18
23.78
21.03
19.02
19.83
18.15
18.92
18.32
19.60
18.58
17.71
17.04
17.23
16.86
16.20
17.61
17.84
19.24
18.63
17.26
16.09
13.32
13.84
10.22
10.45
11.15
10.43
9.97
10.93
10.23
9.22
9.54
8.75
9.59
11.29
11.83

Accin4
4.34
4.47
4.68
4.72
5.35
5.68
5.92
5.53
5.33
5.42
5.91
6.08
6.48
6.98
8.15
8.04
7.74
7.13
7.82
7.97
7.58
8.16
8.30
9.86
9.26
8.75
8.43
8.20
8.41
7.77
8.56
8.62
8.23
8.73
8.84
8.86
7.72
7.49
7.51
7.69
7.91
7.36
6.47
7.28
7.03
7.52
7.84
8.06

Accin5
6.06
5.87
5.91
5.63
6.46
6.63
5.86
5.22
4.87
4.73
5.28
5.47
5.35
5.94
6.54
6.31
6.61
6.21
6.18
6.18
6.63
6.58
6.38
7.21
8.26
7.71
7.59
8.44
8.94
8.77
8.37
8.12
8.48
8.77
9.39
9.34
9.31
9.72
10.15
9.24
9.55
9.45
9.91
10.36
10.00
11.11
11.32
11.01

LN(1+devolucin)
Accin1 Accin2
5.06%
1.42%
-0.38%
15.45%
-0.55%
-8.55%
-13.96%
-12.23%
0.63%
9.08%
1.83%
6.62%
13.09%
-3.62%
-3.14%
0.73%
-3.98%
8.15%
-1.65%
-4.12%
4.24%
-12.49%
8.87%
17.66%
11.94%
-1.38%
-3.78%
4.15%
-5.02%
-0.19%
-4.28%
4.96%
8.43%
6.87%
1.89%
6.08%
-2.80%
0.24%
-8.62%
7.67%
-7.67%
-8.21%
4.64%
-3.89%
13.13%
-7.48%
6.67%

-0.34%
3.95%
-0.32%
8.08%
0.60%
3.21%
-14.18%
-12.32%
-4.60%
5.34%
5.43%
10.99%
6.71%
2.33%
1.71%
9.45%
-4.21%
-1.08%
2.15%
-6.88%
-0.57%
-6.21%
17.31%
-1.55%
4.33%
-3.04%
1.28%
-0.51%
2.52%
-1.50%
-3.34%
6.32%
-1.98%
8.16%
3.40%
0.67%
-2.24%
6.57%
1.68%
2.27%
3.80%
2.90%
-0.19%
-1.93%
1.16%
1.53%
6.95%

Accin3
6.41%
2.15%
2.68%
10.71%
-2.12%
-5.23%
-7.87%
4.30%
-0.84%
8.54%
-0.53%
11.46%
2.56%
-12.29%
-10.05%
4.17%
-8.85%
4.15%
-3.22%
6.75%
-5.34%
-4.80%
-3.86%
1.11%
-2.17%
-3.99%
8.35%
1.30%
7.55%
-3.22%
-7.64%
-7.02%
-18.89%
3.83%
-30.32%
2.23%
6.48%
-6.68%
-4.51%
9.19%
-6.62%
-10.39%
3.41%
-8.64%
9.17%
16.32%
4.67%

1/1/2002
2/1/2002
3/1/2002
4/1/2002
5/1/2002
6/1/2002
7/1/2002
8/1/2002
9/1/2002
10/1/2002
11/1/2002
12/1/2002
1/1/2003
2/1/2003
3/1/2003
4/1/2003
5/1/2003
6/1/2003
7/1/2003
8/1/2003
9/1/2003
10/1/2003
11/1/2003
12/1/2003
1/1/2004
2/1/2004
3/1/2004
4/1/2004
5/1/2004
6/1/2004
7/1/2004
8/1/2004
9/1/2004
10/1/2004
11/1/2004
12/1/2004
1/1/2005
2/1/2005
3/1/2005
4/1/2005
5/1/2005
6/1/2005
7/1/2005
8/1/2005
9/1/2005
10/1/2005
11/1/2005
12/1/2005
1/1/2006
2/1/2006

13.59
13.81
12.08
12.25
12.50
12.00
12.23
11.91
11.19
11.43
12.58
13.31
14.74
15.47
15.50
16.07
16.11
16.11
17.04
16.35
16.68
16.78
17.51
17.17
18.73
19.10
18.63
18.11
17.74
18.37
16.28
16.68
18.51
19.31
21.66
20.45
21.40
21.80
21.40
24.05
24.08
23.61
23.81
22.63
23.75
24.31
28.02
29.21
31.58
33.08

5.82
5.69
5.44
5.18
5.41
5.11
5.52
5.45
5.31
5.40
5.08
5.68
5.73
6.09
6.05
6.28
6.50
6.37
6.66
6.65
7.25
7.19
7.63
8.24
8.78
8.64
8.96
8.89
9.52
9.98
9.52
9.62
10.58
11.25
12.09
11.56
12.10
12.02
11.66
13.04
14.19
15.27
16.54
14.76
16.12
15.30
17.49
17.45
18.43
18.49

11.83
11.13
11.49
12.10
13.31
12.42
13.08
14.53
14.77
15.81
15.06
15.65
15.35
16.07
17.54
20.21
19.92
20.56
23.32
22.19
20.29
20.88
20.79
19.66
23.35
26.45
23.99
23.24
23.10
21.42
23.26
24.83
27.03
28.00
34.69
32.98
34.15
31.36
29.95
35.02
37.75
39.38
46.15
44.32
46.34
43.06
47.97
45.83
43.26
45.84

7.61
7.25
6.82
7.48
8.05
7.81
8.56
9.18
9.48
10.00
9.83
10.08
10.70
10.50
11.01
12.03
12.30
12.55
13.34
12.89
13.85
15.23
16.25
16.04
18.01
17.60
17.37
17.41
18.41
18.71
18.05
18.69
19.44
18.69
20.28
18.95
21.99
21.97
20.20
23.35
23.00
24.68
23.82
21.82
22.20
22.08
24.31
25.44
25.86
29.20

11.73
11.73
11.00
11.61
11.99
11.19
10.51
10.97
10.24
11.22
11.04
11.39
12.70
12.97
13.31
13.65
14.80
15.29
15.09
14.29
14.97
16.05
17.50
17.69
19.70
19.63
18.84
18.80
18.92
18.38
18.24
18.26
18.66
17.52
18.44
17.90
17.95
17.09
18.67
21.14
19.88
19.12
21.27
18.75
18.88
17.76
19.26
18.96
18.71
21.70

10.38%
1.61%
-13.38%
1.40%
2.02%
-4.08%
1.90%
-2.65%
-6.24%
2.12%
9.59%
5.64%
10.20%
4.83%
0.19%
3.61%
0.25%
0.00%
5.61%
-4.13%
2.00%
0.60%
4.26%
-1.96%
8.70%
1.96%
-2.49%
-2.83%
-2.06%
3.49%
-12.08%
2.43%
10.41%
4.23%
11.48%
-5.75%
4.54%
1.85%
-1.85%
11.67%
0.12%
-1.97%
0.84%
-5.08%
4.83%
2.33%
14.20%
4.16%
7.80%
4.64%

2.79%
-2.26%
-4.49%
-4.90%
4.34%
-5.70%
7.72%
-1.28%
-2.60%
1.68%
-6.11%
11.16%
0.88%
6.09%
-0.66%
3.73%
3.44%
-2.02%
4.45%
-0.15%
8.64%
-0.83%
5.94%
7.69%
6.35%
-1.61%
3.64%
-0.78%
6.85%
4.72%
-4.72%
1.04%
9.51%
6.14%
7.20%
-4.48%
4.57%
-0.66%
-3.04%
11.19%
8.45%
7.34%
7.99%
-11.39%
8.81%
-5.22%
13.38%
-0.23%
5.46%
0.33%

0.00%
-6.10%
3.18%
5.17%
9.53%
-6.92%
5.18%
10.51%
1.64%
6.80%
-4.86%
3.84%
-1.94%
4.58%
8.75%
14.17%
-1.45%
3.16%
12.60%
-4.97%
-8.95%
2.87%
-0.43%
-5.59%
17.20%
12.47%
-9.76%
-3.18%
-0.60%
-7.55%
8.24%
6.53%
8.49%
3.53%
21.42%
-5.06%
3.49%
-8.52%
-4.60%
15.64%
7.51%
4.23%
15.86%
-4.05%
4.46%
-7.34%
10.80%
-4.56%
-5.77%
5.79%

3/1/2006
4/1/2006
5/1/2006
6/1/2006
7/1/2006
8/1/2006
9/1/2006
10/1/2006
11/1/2006
12/1/2006
1/1/2007
2/1/2007
3/1/2007
4/1/2007
5/1/2007
6/1/2007
7/1/2007
8/1/2007
9/1/2007
10/1/2007
11/1/2007
12/1/2007

31.54
36.86
33.51
31.09
30.62
24.39
22.55
24.00
28.68
26.72
29.40
31.35
27.72
28.28
25.94
27.45
24.55
24.72
23.16
23.66
25.10
25.21

20.58
20.34
19.90
21.69
21.42
19.16
19.12
21.03
21.72
24.60
25.30
24.20
26.78
25.51
24.62
27.35
26.47
27.27
28.87
33.00
31.69
32.76

45.59
50.86
51.67
50.49
58.27
49.61
56.60
65.41
72.85
81.34
80.84
74.98
78.30
92.41
102.60
114.32
111.17
110.28
107.13
86.98
91.36
91.68

28.46
27.70
26.85
28.77
30.04
26.92
30.53
31.79
31.79
32.82
33.30
33.50
36.69
38.26
36.45
38.57
35.84
40.36
36.27
41.35
41.07
40.57

23.86
24.61
26.13
27.48
26.60
22.48
23.80
26.74
27.97
30.67
31.47
33.94
36.22
33.88
30.82
32.92
33.37
33.16
34.66
33.06
36.70
36.92

Medias mensuales
Desv est mensuales
Medias anuales
Desv est anuales

-4.77%
15.59%
-9.53%
-7.50%
-1.52%
-22.75%
-7.84%
6.23%
17.81%
-7.08%
9.56%
6.42%
-12.31%
2.00%
-8.64%
5.66%
-11.17%
0.69%
-6.52%
2.14%
5.91%
0.44%

10.71%
-1.17%
-2.19%
8.61%
-1.25%
-11.15%
-0.21%
9.52%
3.23%
12.45%
2.81%
-4.45%
10.13%
-4.86%
-3.55%
10.52%
-3.27%
2.98%
5.70%
13.37%
-4.05%
3.32%

-0.55%
10.94%
1.58%
-2.31%
14.33%
-16.09%
13.18%
14.47%
10.77%
11.02%
-0.62%
-7.53%
4.33%
16.57%
10.46%
10.82%
-2.79%
-0.80%
-2.90%
-20.84%
4.91%
0.35%

1.04%
7.31%

2.01%
5.73%

1.40%
8.58%

12.47%
25.34%

24.14%
19.85%

16.86%
29.74%

Accin4

Accin5

2.95%
4.59%
0.85%
12.53%
5.99%
4.14%
-6.81%
-3.68%
1.67%
8.66%
2.84%
6.37%
7.43%
15.50%
-1.36%
-3.80%
-8.21%
9.24%
1.90%
-5.02%
7.37%
1.70%
17.22%
-6.28%
-5.67%
-3.73%
-2.77%
2.53%
-7.92%
9.68%
0.70%
-4.63%
5.90%
1.25%
0.23%
-13.77%
-3.02%
0.27%
2.37%
2.82%
-7.21%
-12.89%
11.80%
-3.49%
6.74%
4.17%
2.77%

-3.19%
0.68%
-4.85%
13.75%
2.60%
-12.35%
-11.57%
-6.94%
-2.92%
11.00%
3.54%
-2.22%
10.46%
9.62%
-3.58%
4.64%
-6.24%
-0.48%
0.00%
7.03%
-0.76%
-3.09%
12.23%
13.60%
-6.89%
-1.57%
10.62%
5.76%
-1.92%
-4.67%
-3.03%
4.34%
3.36%
6.83%
-0.53%
-0.32%
4.31%
4.33%
-9.39%
3.30%
-1.05%
4.75%
4.44%
-3.54%
10.53%
1.87%
-2.78%

-5.75%
-4.85%
-6.11%
9.24%
7.34%
-3.03%
9.17%
6.99%
3.22%
5.34%
-1.71%
2.51%
5.97%
-1.89%
4.74%
8.86%
2.22%
2.01%
6.10%
-3.43%
7.18%
9.50%
6.48%
-1.30%
11.58%
-2.30%
-1.32%
0.23%
5.58%
1.62%
-3.59%
3.48%
3.93%
-3.93%
8.16%
-6.78%
14.88%
-0.09%
-8.40%
14.49%
-1.51%
7.05%
-3.55%
-8.77%
1.73%
-0.54%
9.62%
4.54%
1.64%
12.15%

6.33%
0.00%
-6.43%
5.40%
3.22%
-6.91%
-6.27%
4.28%
-6.89%
9.14%
-1.62%
3.12%
10.89%
2.10%
2.59%
2.52%
8.09%
3.26%
-1.32%
-5.45%
4.65%
6.97%
8.65%
1.08%
10.76%
-0.36%
-4.11%
-0.21%
0.64%
-2.90%
-0.76%
0.11%
2.17%
-6.30%
5.12%
-2.97%
0.28%
-4.91%
8.84%
12.42%
-6.15%
-3.90%
10.66%
-12.61%
0.69%
-6.12%
8.11%
-1.57%
-1.33%
14.83%

-2.57%
-2.71%
-3.12%
6.91%
4.32%
-10.97%
12.58%
4.04%
0.00%
3.19%
1.45%
0.60%
9.10%
4.19%
-4.85%
5.65%
-7.34%
11.88%
-10.68%
13.11%
-0.68%
-1.22%

9.49%
3.09%
5.99%
5.04%
-3.25%
-16.83%
5.71%
11.65%
4.50%
9.22%
2.57%
7.56%
6.50%
-6.68%
-9.47%
6.59%
1.36%
-0.63%
4.42%
-4.73%
10.45%
0.60%

1.88%
6.46%

1.52%
6.37%

22.54%
22.36%

18.22%
22.06%