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Groundwater is the most important natural resource required for agriculture. The resource cannot be optimally used and sustained unless the quality of groundwater is assessed. This study represents the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater quality including EC and SAR as salinity and alkalinity indices, in Ardabil plain. Samples were collected by 34 available wells during 2001-2011. The thematic map of each mentioned index was generated using ordinary kriging. Experimental semivariogram values were fitted for different models to identify the best one for interpolating the groundwater quality indices in the study area. Testing analysis was conducted by cross-validation as well as it revealed the validity and accuracy of Gaussian model for each year. According to the Wilcox diagram, degree of alkalinity in major portion of Ardabil plain groundwater was classified at three levels: C2, 34.68%; C3, 63.9%; and C4, 1.34% of total area. Time change era closed to 10 years impacted on increasing the area extension of the worth class C4 (C2, 26.94%; C3, 62.23%; and C4, 10.83%).

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Salinity and Alkalinity Using Ordinary Kriging; Case Study: Ardabil

Plain Aquifer

Zahra Mahmoodifard *

MSc of Irrigation and Drainage, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Iran.

Professor of Irrigation and Drainage, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Iran.

Associate of Irrigation and Drainage, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Iran.

Farzin Shahbazi

Assistant of Soil Science Department, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Iran.

*Corresponding author: zahra_470@yahoo.com

Keywords

Abstract

Cross- validation

Geostatistics

Semivariogram

Wilcox Diagram

Groundwater is the most important natural resource required for agriculture. The resource cannot be

optimally used and sustained unless the quality of groundwater is assessed. This study represents the spatial

and temporal distribution of groundwater quality including EC and SAR as salinity and alkalinity indices, in

Ardabil plain. Samples were collected by 34 available wells during 2001-2011. The thematic map of each

mentioned index was generated using ordinary kriging. Experimental semivariogram values were fitted for

different models to identify the best one for interpolating the groundwater quality indices in the study area.

Testing analysis was conducted by cross-validation as well as it revealed the validity and accuracy of

Gaussian model for each year. According to the Wilcox diagram, degree of alkalinity in major portion of

Ardabil plain groundwater was classified at three levels: C2, 34.68%; C3, 63.9%; and C4, 1.34% of total

area. Time change era closed to 10 years impacted on increasing the area extension of the worth class C4

(C2, 26.94%; C3, 62.23%; and C4, 10.83%).

1.

Introduction

Groundwater is the main source of irrigation water supply for many settlements. Because poor-quality irrigation water can alter soil

physicochemical properties, causing soil salinization and reducing crop productivity [1], it is important to be evaluated the quality of any

groundwater that may be potentially used for irrigation. Sampling and mapping in the earth sciences are complicated by spatial and temporal

patterns. The discipline of geostatistics provides very useful techniques for handling spatially distributed data such as soil and groundwater

pollution [2; 3; 4; 5]. By identifying spatial patterns and interpolating values at unsampled points, geostatistical analysis can play a vital role to

achievement the sustainable management of groundwater systems by providing estimated input parameters at regular grid points from

measurements taken at random locations [6]. Many authors have emphasized the role of geostatistics in the management and sustainability of

regional water resources [7; 8; 9]. Kriging is a geostatistical interpolation technique that has a number of variations, including simple kriging,

ordinary kriging (OK), co-kriging, stratified kriging and non-linear kriging, with ordinary kriging used most frequently [10]. Kriging method

considers the spatial correlation between the sample points and is mostly used for mapping spatial variability [11]. It is distinguished from

inverse distance weighting (IDW) and other interpolation methods by taking into consideration the variance of estimated parameters [12]. These

methods work best for normal distribution data [13]. Kriging was widely used by many researchers to analyze the spatial variations of

groundwater characteristics and even at many aspects of soil science such as distribution patterns of soil biological indices affected by different

land uses [14]. [15] have used either kriging to interpolate groundwater levels in the Anthemountas Basin of northern Greece or cross-validation

to estimate the accuracy of interpolations. Kriging, Cokriging and IDW methods have also been used by [16] for predicting spatial distribution of

some groundwater characteristics such as TDS, TH, EC, SAR, Cl- and SO42- in Ardakan-Yazd plain. The results showed that kriging and

cokriging methods were superior to IDW method because of low RMSE. [9] applied ordinary kriging and indicator kriging to analyze the spatial

variability of groundwater depth and its quality parameters in Delhi. The results revealed that not only amount of groundwater chloride was more

than 250 mg L-1 in 62% of the study but also its salinity content was exceeded to 2.5 ds m-1 in 69% of the area. [10] has also applied

geostatistical approach to map the salinity of a groundwater irrigation source in China. According to their findings, spherical model was the most

suitable semivariogram to describe groundwater salinity in March, September and November, while exponential model was distinguished as the

best model for its describing in June. [17] used OK to analyze spatial variability of groundwater salinity over a 7-year period in Turkey whose

observation was that the semivariogram models varied by year. Exponential (2004, 2009), spherical (2005), J-Bessel (2006) and rational (2007,

2008, 2010) models have been preferable approaches for 7 years. In the past year, OK was also used to analyze spatial distribution of the 12

groundwater quality parameters (calcium, magnesium, iron, nitrate, manganese, sodium, potassium, pH, TDS, total hardness, alkalinity and

turbidity) in Ranchi. Results showed that deterioration of groundwater quality in this area is not very serious problem except in few areas [13].

The main objectives of this research are: (i) applying geostatistics to find the best modeling approach to predict the spatial variation of some

groundwater quality indices such as EC and SAR in 10 years change era (2001 and 2011) in Ardabil plain, (ii) fitting models to experimental

variograms, (iii) interpolation of selected indices in the study area using popular methods of OK, (iv) integrate the geostatistical results with GIS

using ArcGIS Geostatistical Analyst to create digital maps of variables and then zoning of the study area to elucidate the occurred environmental

hazards.

245

Assessment of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Groundwater Salinity and Alkalinity Using Ordinary Kriging; (Case Study: Ardabil Plain Aquifer)

Agriculture Science Developments Vol(3), No (7), July, 2014.

2.

Methodology

Ardabil plain has an area about 1074 km2 which has located in the central part of Ardabil province of Iran, 38o 03' N, 48o 35' E, Within the

Universal Transverse Mercator projection (UTM) zone 39N (Fig. 1). Ardabil plain is surrounded by mountains where Garasu river is its outline.

The general slope is from South-East to North-West to outline of the plain. The region climate is temperate. The annual average precipitation

and potential evapotranspiration are about 300 mm and 235 mm, respectively.

.

Figure 1. Location of the study area

In this study for assessment of spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater parameters (EC and SAR) in Ardabil plain, the data from

Ardabil organization regional water were used. The groundwater quality parameters were studied for 34 samples collected from the existing

observation wells Ardabil plain in October 2001 and 2011. Figure 1 shows the observation wells in the study area.

2.3 Statistical analysis

Data was analyzed in 2 stages. First, descriptive statistics for groundwater data, including minimums, maximums, arithmetic means, median,

standard deviations, skewness and kurtosis. Second, a normality (Shapiro-Wilk) test was conducted to test for normal distribution for each

year. Statistical analyses were carried out using SPSS.

2.4 Structural analysis of data

The theoretical basis of geostatistics has been fully described by several authors [18; 19]. The main tool in geostatistics is the variogram, which

expresses the spatial dependence between neighboring observations [20]. The variogram, (h), can be defined as one-half the variance of the

difference between the attribute values at all points separated by h as follows:

( h)

1 N (h)

[ z ( xi h) z ( xi )]

2 N ( h) i 1

(1)

(h): The estimated or experimental semi-variance value for all pairs at a lag distance h

z(xi): The water quality value at point i

z(xi+h): The water quality value of other points separated from xi by a discrete distance h

xi: The georeferenced positions where the z(xi) values were measured

n: The number of pairs of observations separated by the distance h.

Ordinary Kriging was used to interpolate. Five types of semivariogram models (Circular, Spherical, Exponential, Rational quadratic and

Gaussian) were tested EC and SAR in each year. For the selection of the best one, Predictive performances of the fitted models were checked on

the basis of cross validation tests. The values of root mean error (RMSE), average standard error (ASE) and root mean square standardized error

(RMSSE) were estimated to ascertain the performance of the developed models. If the RMSE is close to the ASE, the prediction errors were

correctly assessed. If the RMSE is smaller than the ASE, then the variability of the predictions is overestimated; conversely, if the RMSE is

greater than the ASE, then the variability of the predictions is underestimated. The same could be deduced from the RMSSE statistic. It should

be close to one. If the RMSSE is greater than one, the variability of the predictions is underestimated; likewise if it is less than one, the

variability is overestimated [13]. Various errors are defined by the equation (2)-(4) given below:

RMSE

ASE

1 n

[ z ' ( xi ) z ( xi )]2

n i 1

1 n 2

( xi )

n i 1

(2)

(3)

Zahra Mahmoodifard *, Amir Hosein Nazemi, Seyed Ali Sadraddini, Farzin Shahbazi

246

1 n

[ z ' ( xi ) z ( xi ) / ( xi )]2

n i1

RMSSE

(4)

z'(xi): Predicted value at point xi

2(xi): The Kriging variance at point xi

n: Number of samples

After conducting the cross validation process, maps of kriged estimates were generated which provided a visual representation of the distribution

of the groundwater quality. These maps were produced with the ArcMap module of the ArcGIS. In this study to classification of groundwater

quality, Wilcox diagram were used indicating low-saline and alkali (EC<250 moh/cm and SAR<10), medium-saline and alkali (EC: 250-750

moh/cm and SAR: 10-18), high- saline and alkali (EC: 750-2250 moh/cm and SAR: 18-26) and very high- saline and alkali (EC> 2250 and

SAR>26) regions (Figure 2).

irrigation water [21]

3.

Table 1 and Table 2 provides a summary of groundwater salinity and alkalinity statistics for 2001 and 2011. In 2001, EC value ranged from 324

mho/cm to 2660 mho/cm with a mean and standard deviation as 1023.50 and 634.84 respectively. In the same year, SAR value ranged from

0.702 to 12.69 with a mean and standard deviation as 4.047 and 2.808 respectively. In 2011, EC value ranged from 369 mho/cm to 5480

mho/cm with a mean and standard deviation as 1456.88 and 1277.48 respectively. In the same year, SAR value ranged from 0.386 to 13.103

with a mean and standard deviation as 3.451and 2.887, respectively.

Kriging methods work best if data is normally distributed. In this study, the Shpiro - Wilk test showed EC and SAR values during the study

period were not normally distributed; therefore, values were log-transformed prior to the calculation of semivariance.

Years

2001

2011

N

34

34

Min

324

369

Max

2660

5480

Mean

1023.50

1456.88

Median

810.50

988

S.D.

634.84

1277.48

Skewness

0.976

1.77

Kurtosis

0.302

2.74

Transformation

Lognormal

Lognormal

Years

2001

2011

N

34

34

Min

0.702

0.386

Max

12.69

13.103

Mean

4.047

3.451

Median

3.698

2.554

S.D.

2.808

2.887

Skewness

1.438

1.276

Kurtosis

2.356

2.094

Transformation

Lognormal

Lognormal

247

Assessment of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Groundwater Salinity and Alkalinity Using Ordinary Kriging; (Case Study: Ardabil Plain Aquifer)

Agriculture Science Developments Vol(3), No (7), July, 2014.

Circular, spherical, exponential, gaussian and rational quadratic semivariogram models were evaluated in this study. Tables 3-6 show these

models and results of cross-validation between measured and estimated values. As the tables indicate, guassian model is as best-fits for EC and

SAR in 2001 and 2011. Therefore this model was selected for generate maps. The corresponding nugget, sill and range values of the best fitted

theoretical models were reported in Table 7. The best fitted semivariogram models are shown in Figure 3.

Spatial dependence of groundwater quality parameters can be classified according to nugget-to-sill ratio (%), with a ratio of <25% indicating a

strong spatial dependence, a ratio of 2575% indicating moderate spatial dependence and a ratio of >75% indicating a weak spatial dependence

[22].

Findings for nugget-to-sill ratios in the present study indicated groundwater salinity and alkalinity to have a strong spatial structure for all years

tested (except SAR to have a moderate spatial structure in 2011 year), with similar annual values ranging from 20,000 m to 25,000 m (Table 7).

The RMSSE values close to one represent a good prediction model. Close values of RMSE and ASE for groundwater quality parameters also

shows good agreement of the model.

Models

Circular

spherical

exponential

Gaussian

rational quadratic

Prediction errors

Average standard

492.1

519.2

607

365.8

584.4

367.8

366.9

392.6

336.4

400.2

0.7855

0.7409

0.6664

1.001

0.7163

Models

Circular

spherical

exponential

Gaussian

rational quadratic

Prediction errors

Average standard

1095

1159

1340

834.1

1294

864.2

868.8

928.4

784.3

998.3

0.8141

0.7667

0.703

1.001

0.7876

Models

Circular

spherical

exponential

Gaussian

rational quadratic

Prediction errors

Average standard

3.202

3.386

3.98

2.508

3.752

2.127

2.150

2.212

1.989

2.505

0.7949

0.7390

0.6110

1.008

0.7492

Models

Circular

spherical

exponential

Gaussian

rational quadratic

Prediction errors

Average standard

2.754

2.843

3.069

2.580

3.078

2.511

2.523

2.554

2.500

2.629

0.9341

0.9039

0.8342

1.008

0.8528

Zahra Mahmoodifard *, Amir Hosein Nazemi, Seyed Ali Sadraddini, Farzin Shahbazi

248

Groundwater

parameter

EC

SAR

year

2001

2011

2001

2011

Best fitted

model

Gaussian

Gaussian

Gaussian

Gaussian

Nugget (C0)

Sill (C0+C)

Range (m)

Nugget ratio

0.0450

0.0711

0.1000

0.2900

0.3700

0.6610

0.6550

0.3600

20,000

21,000

25,000

22,000

0.1084

0.0971

0.1324

0.4461

Figure 3. Best-fitted semivariograms models for water quality parameters in years tested

The spatial distribution of groundwater quality parameters is shown in 2001 and 2011 in Figure 4. In 2001, Salinity was mapped into 3

categories, with EC ranging from 324 to 2660 mho/cm (mean: 1023.50 mho/cm). 34.68% of the area showed an EC in the range of 250750

mho/cm, 63.98% of the area had an EC ranging from 750 to 2250 mho/cm and 1.34% had an EC value above 2250 mho/cm (Table 8). In

2011, Salinity was mapped into 3 categories too, with EC ranging from 369 to 5480 mho/cm (mean: 1456.88 mho/cm). 26.94% of the area

showed an EC in the range of 250750 mho/cm, 62.23% of the area had an EC ranging from 750 to 2250 mho/cm and 10.83% had an EC

value above 2250 mho/cm (Table 8).

Spatially, EC values increase from the east part towards the sou'wester part of the study area (Figure 4A and B). In general temporally

groundwater salinity values have increased especially in the sou'wester part between 2001 and 2011 (Figure 4A and B).The increase in

groundwater salinity on the sou'wester part of the study area from 2001 to 2011 can be attributed mainly to existence of Miocene formation at

the fringe of this location and salt leaching by rainfall and infiltration to this area.

In 2001 and 2011, alkalinity was mapped into 1 category that 100% of the area showed an SAR in the range of lower 10 (Table 9). Spatially and

temporally, groundwater alkalinity values have not changed much.

249

Assessment of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Groundwater Salinity and Alkalinity Using Ordinary Kriging; (Case Study: Ardabil Plain Aquifer)

Agriculture Science Developments Vol(3), No (7), July, 2014.

Table 8. Differences in groundwater salinity values within the study area, (km2,%).

Year

2001

2011

C1 (<250 mho/cm)

Area(km2)

(%)

0

0

0

0

C2 (250-750 mho/cm)

Area (km2)

(%)

372.25

34.68

289.21

26.94

C3 (750-2250 mho/cm)

Area (km2)

(%)

686.81

63.98

668.04

62.23

C4 (>2250 mho/cm)

Area (km2)

(%)

14.39

1.34

116.21

10.83

Zahra Mahmoodifard *, Amir Hosein Nazemi, Seyed Ali Sadraddini, Farzin Shahbazi

250

Table 9. Differences in groundwater alkalinity values within the study area, (km2,%)

Year

2001

2011

4.

S1 (<10)

Area (km2)

1073.46

1073.46

(%)

100

100

S2 (10-18)

Area(km2)

(%)

0

0

0

0

S3 (18-26)

Area(km2)

(%)

0

0

0

0

S4 (>26)

Area(km2)

(%)

0

0

0

0

Conclusion

Kriging is considered to be a useful technique for the monitoring, evaluation and management of groundwater resources. This study

used ordinary kriging to map the spatial variability groundwater salinity and alkalinity. Spatially, groundwater salinity showed a tendency to

increase from the east part towards the sou'wester part of the Ardabil Plain, and temporally, groundwater salinity increased specially on

the sou'wester part of Ardabil Plain from 2001 to 2011; But spatially and temporally, groundwater alkalinity values have not changed much.

The results will be beneficial for the planners and decision makers to devise policy guidelines for efficient management of the groundwater

resources in Ardabil plain.

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