Charting 2014 Collin County Turnout

Over all, the national turnout was 36.3 percent; only the 1942 federal election had a lower
participation rate at 33.9 percent. The reasons are likely voter apathy and negative perceptions of
both political parties. Republicans ran a single-theme negative campaign against President
Obama, and Democrats were unwilling to campaign on how much the national economy has
improved or to point out significant achievements of Democratic policies over the six years of
Obama's presidency.
Neither party gave voters an affirmative reason to show up at the polls so Millennials didn't
bother to vote, single women were a little less pro-Democratic than usual, and the racial divide
among voters remains stark. One number stands out above all others: 64 percent of older white
men voted Republican. It's the "widest GOP advantage in this group in data since 1984,"
according to ABC News.
Nationally, Democrats maintained an edge among Latinos voting in 2014 midterm elections, but
in some states, Republican candidates won more than 40% of the Latino vote, according to a Pew
Research Center analysis of National Election Pool exit poll data as reported by NBC News.
In the Texas race for governor, Democrat Wendy Davis won 55% of the Latino vote with 44% of
Latinos voting for Republican Greg Abbott.
Turnout for the November 2014 Texas midterm election was down by 252,662 votes, compared
to 2010 turnout numbers, even though Texas' population grew from 25.2 million in 2010 to an
estimated population of 27.2 million over the last four years.
2014 voter registrations also increase by 756,208 from 13.3 million registered voters in 2010 to
more than 14 million for the November 2014 election, according to statistics from the Texas
Secretary of State. Contrasting that increase in statewide voter registrations, 252,662 fewer
Texas ballots were cast in 2014, yielding a disappointing turnout rate of just 33.6 percent.
The voting age population (VAP) increased from 18,279,737 in 2010 to 19,927,498 in 2014, as
estimated by the Texas Department of State Health Services. An estimated 13.5% of the Texas
VAP (2,690,212) are not U.S. citizens, and an additional estimated 500,000 convicted Texas
felons are also not eligible vote.
The approximate Texas voting eligible population (VEP) for the November 2014 election was
16,737,286 Texans, putting the current Texas VEP registration rate at 84 percent.
Increased voter registrations in Texas' fifteen largest counties account for 642,905 of the
additional 756,208 Texas voters registrations over 2010. In Texass five largest counties
Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, and Travis the number of people registered to vote increased
by over 2% since 2012, according to figures reported by the Houston Chronicle in October.
Over one third of Texans live in those five counties, which encompass the cities of Houston,
Dallas, Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Austin. At the forefront of the registration push was
Battleground Texas, which become the de facto field organization of Democrat Wendy Daviss
campaign for governor.
Statewide, turnout for Democratic Party candidates was down from 2010, while turnout for
Republicans Party candidates increased slightly. Greg Abbott defeated Wendy Davis by 960,378
votes, according to election results reported by the Texas Secretary of State. Abbott finished with
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Charting 2014 Collin County Turnout

more raw votes and a higher percentage of the total than Gov. Rick Perry in 2010. Davis finished
with both a lower percentage of the vote than her 2010 counterpart, Bill White, and a lower vote
count.
Across nine of Texas' fifteen largest counties, turnout was down, compared to 2010. Six of
Texas' largest fifteen counties, including Collin County, managed modest gains in their overall
turnout numbers.

Votes cast for Texas Governor

Although all the big Texas newspapers endorsed Democrats for Governor, Lt. Governor, State
Comptroller and Attorney General, all of them lost on turnout numbers down from 2010, and
perhaps the lowest percentage turnout rates in living memory. As Rick Perry's campaign did in
2010, Abbott's campaign employed social media and big data analytics to essentially hold
midterm Republican turnout even with 2010.

Charting 2014 Collin County Turnout

Among the fifteen largest counties, Democratic turnout declined in the usual Democratic
strongholds of Harris, Dallas, Bexar, El Paso, and Cameron counties. With so much focus
placed on Wendy Davis' home court territory Tarrant County, turnout was up in that county.
Turnout also increased in the Democratic stronghold of Travis County. In Collin, Denton and
Williamson Counties, regarded as Republican strongholds, the combined efforts of Democratic
Party candidates and County Party campaigns generated a slight increase in turnout for
Democrats. Davis bettered Bill White's 2010 vote count in only 13 counties: Brooks, Collin,
Denton, Duval, Haskell, Hidalgo, Kinney, Refugio, Schleicher, Starr, Tarrant, Travis, and
Williamson. (Full list of counties at bottom of article)
Abbott's 2014 Collin County improvement over Perry's 2010 performance appears more
impressive than it actually is because Perry significantly under performed other Republicans on
the 2010 Collin County ballot. In 2010, the Republican candidate for Lt. Governor, David
Dewhurst, received almost 110k votes. Using Dewhurst's 2010 vote tally for comparison of 2014
Republican performance reduces Abbot's 2014 gain in Collin County to just slightly more than
6k votes.
Collin County cities lead Texas and the nation in population growth with a population increase
of more than 61 percent since the 2000 Census. Collin County continues to grow at one of the
fastest rates in the U.S., gaining almost 100 new residents every day.
According to U.S. Census Bureau population estimates for this year, Collin County cities rank in
the top 15 fastest-growing large cities in the nation. Eight of the ten fastest-growing cities in
North Texas are in Collin County, with growth rates averaging more than 250 percent. The 2010
census pegged Collin County,'s population at 782,000 residents. The population estimate for
2014 is 916,097, including 666,050 voting age persons. By the 2016 general election, the
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Charting 2014 Collin County Turnout

population is estimated to increase to 990,954 residents, including 729,430 voting age persons.
(Population estimates from Texas Department of State Health Services)
Collin County's high population growth is reflected in voter registration numbers over the last
quarter century, as shown in the chart below. Note that the popularity of early voting has
steadily increased over those years with a majority of voters now preferring to vote early.
Election Day turnout between presidential and midterm election years now varies little, with
almost all the turnout variability between presidential and midterm years moving to early voting.
Unfortunately, midterm turnout rates over most of the past 25 years has been stuck at or under 40
percent.

For the 2014 election, Collin County had 489,032 registered voters, an increase of 64,360 over
2010 registrations, out of an estimated 2014 VAP of 666,050 adults. Using the VAP number,
Collin County had a registration rate of 73.4 percent. But an estimated 12 percent of the county's
VAP are not voting eligible citizens, and the county has about 10k felons who are also not
eligible to vote. That reduce the county's voting eligible population to 576,124 adults, yielding a
registration rate of 85 percent.

Charting 2014 Collin County Turnout

As the chart shows, registration rates are weakest in the younger age groups and strongest in the
oldest age groups. As usual, midterm election results were determined by the older generations
because younger voters of every demographic group did not bother to vote. While efforts of
Battleground Texas and other groups and candidates to register voters paid off with 39,605 new
voters added the county poll book during 2014, only 18 percent of those newly registered voters
voted.

While exit polling data isn't available for Collin County, it is likely demographic results are
similar to statewide results. In the Texas race for governor, Democrat Wendy Davis won 55% of
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Charting 2014 Collin County Turnout

the Latino vote with 44% of Latinos voting for Republican Greg Abbott. The following chart
gives the overall demographic view for the county.
36K Hispanic Americans are registered to vote in Collin County with 3.9K affiliated with the
Democratic Party by primary vote and 2.8K affiliated with the Republican Party. 40K Asian
Americans are registered to vote in Collin County with 4.5K affiliated with the Democratic Party
and 1.7K affiliated with the Republican Party. 8,719 Hispanic Americans and 7,197 Asian
Americans voted in 2014 midterm election.

About 83k voters have voted in a Republican primary only and a little more than 52K voters
have cast ballots in a Democratic Primary only. Another 12k voters have voted in both party's
primaries since 2008. Voters solidly affiliated with the Republican Party turned out at higher
rates across all age groups, Republicans age 60 and older topping 80 percent turnout. Fewer
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Charting 2014 Collin County Turnout

voters have affiliated with the Democratic Party, however, a large portion of the 12k voters who
have voted in both primaries self identify as Democrats. Democratic primary ballots in Collin
County have so few candidates, so few challengers to Republicans running for office and so
rarely have contested races that some Democrats occasionally cross over to vote in Republican
primaries. That said, affiliated Democrats turned out at low lower rates than Republicans across
all age groups.

Looking at key Collin County ballot returns shows that Democratic candidates down ballot from
Wendy Davis held stronger numbers, relative to past elections. Down ballot Democrats show
particular strength as compared to the Democrat at very top of the ballot, David Alameel running
for the U.S. Senate against Republican John Cornyn. The numbers actually suggest that a few
Democrats must of crossed over to vote for Cornyn instead of Alameel.

Charting 2014 Collin County Turnout

46% of the total vote was straight party Republican and 18% was straight Democratic Party. 70%
of the Republican vote was straight party. 56% of the Democratic vote was straight party. Voter
registrations increased 15 percent over 2010, but turnout increased only 12 percent. (Goldstein
was the 2010 Democratic candidate for the 5th Court of Appeals and Meyers was the Republican
opponent. Molberg was the 2014 Democratic candidate for the 5th Court of Appeals and
Stoddart was the Republican opponent.)

Charting 2014 Collin County Turnout

Democratic candidate Sameena Karmally ran against Republican incumbent Jodie Laubenberg
for the district 89 seat in the Texas House of Representatives. Laubenberg was unopposed in
2010.

Charting 2014 Collin County Turnout

Democratic candidate Denise Hamilton ran against Republican incumbent John Peyton for
Collin County Justice of the Peace, Precinct 3, Place 2. Democratic Rey Flores ran against
Peyton in 2010.

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Charting 2014 Collin County Turnout

For comparison and preview to the 2016 election challenge, here is the November 2012 election
chart

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Charting 2014 Collin County Turnout

Targeted GOTV programs in the 8 to 12 weeks before Election Day are essential.
The Collin County Democratic Party Coordinated Campaign ran those programs
in 2014, including:

Road Signs at Major Intersections (Collected to reuse in 2016)

Wendy / Leticia yard signs
Voters Guide Newspaper and their distribution
Paid Block Walk Program
Phone Bank Calling
Meet the Candidates Breakfast
Rally with Leticia at Collin College
September Candidate Rally (600-700 guests)
Targeted Web Advertising
Signs placed a ED and EV polling places

The problem Democrats face is that the party organization, candidates and activist groups don't
know the names, addresses, (cell) phone numbers, email addresses and social media site
destinations of enough Democratic-leaning people to target for GOTV contact in this 8-12 weeks
to reach a result close to 50.1% of the vote.
Getting younger voters to the polls must be a key strategy for Democratic candidates. There is
currently no way to urge younger voters to get out and vote because the party leanings of
individuals in younger age cohorts have not been identified through canvassing programs, and
they have no primary election voting history to indicate party affiliation. Even if party-related
organizations and candidates could identify those potential young voters, the only way to make
contact with them is by knocking on their front door. That is because that part of the electorate
has a cell phone mostly lifestyle and no voter information data base contains their cell number,
email address, or social media site preferences.

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Charting 2014 Collin County Turnout

Democrats have about 95 weeks until early voting starts for the Nov 2016 election. Activists at
the county and neighborhood levels must work every week to identify every Democratic-leaning
voting age citizen, documenting their contact and demographic info. As Democratic leaning
people are identified, county level organizations must plan and execute programs that build
relationships with those people to make them an active part of the Democratic base.

Those programs must be designed to invite that disconnected part of the electorate to participate
in regular conversations at house and town hall meetings, and on social media. Democrats must
do old fashioned base building work, and learn how to combine Internet and mobile
communication with those traditional community organizing activities to accomplish that
mission.
The American conservative movement has moved public conversation steadily rightward over
the last 30 years, with far-reaching consequences for the countrys political governance. The
conservative movement has succeeded through the actions of a well-funded and well-coordinated
organizational infrastructure that follows a long-term, disciplined communications strategy.
The conservative infrastructure provides conservative politicians with both ideas and specific
language for use in public statements and campaigns. It also presents these words and the
associated conservative messages to the public through multiple media, making it appear as if the
politicians are simply expressing widely accepted ideas. Thanks to their institutional
infrastructure and its affiliated media, conservative ideology has become the dominant force in
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Charting 2014 Collin County Turnout

public discourse, and thus in American politics.
There is now widespread recognition among many Democrats that almost all of their programs,
institutions, and activities are under attack by the Right, and that they have been unable, thus far,
to mount an effective response. This has led to a growing awareness that Democrats must build a
political movement for the twenty-first century, with the power to fund, generate, package, and
disseminate ideas that lead society forward.
The indisputable success of the conservative infrastructure model serves as a continuing
reminder that attention to marketing and communications, as well as organizational
development, with coordination and appropriate funding, can yield enormous dividends. A
strategic marketing approach by Democrats will greatly enhance the value and reach of new
policy ideas, new Democratic media channels, and growing involvement of people across all
demographic groups.
Given the conservative movements three-decade head start, Democrats must build traditional
infrastructure components in order to achieve parity. If they want to achieve dominance in the
marketplace of ideas, however, they must also tap their strategic competitive advantages.
Democratic advantages can be found in the creative sector, nonprofit organizations, academia,
new media and the blogosphere, technology, and grassroots movements. A robust, highly
effective progressive infrastructure will leverage these advantages.
To summarize, three elements are needed to make a progressive infrastructure work toward
building a multi-racial, multi-sector movement that can achieve major advances for economic
and racial justice. They are:

Deep relationships that connect people beyond the campaign of the moment;
Identify and focus on shared worldview (values, beliefs, assumptions) and vision of
Democratic-leaning voters at the grassroots;
Coordinated long-term strategy with a focus of building power and recognizing the
different roles that are needed in that strategy.

Perhaps the most important function of a political infrastructure is to provide a disciplined and
coordinated political strategy aimed at building a movement capable of exercising governing
power. The need to win immediate election victories is balanced with building power in the
long-term. This is what we call the 51%-30% understanding.
Typically people think about winning in terms of doing whatever is necessary to get 51% of the
vote. However, progressive organizations also need to put resources into building a base of, say,
30% of the population. That base, if it existed, would be the committed core, the constituencies
acting on the basis of a progressive worldview, promoting a progressive agenda.
Building that base is absolutely crucial to the long-run ability to be competitive election to
election, beginning with the 2016 election.

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