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- on 01/02/2015
As we approach the final week of campaigning for the Presidential election,
the political messages of both coalitions are becoming clearer. So are the
strategies of both coalitions and trends in voter sentiment as revealed
through some surveys and public attendance in political rallies. Defections
from the ruling coalition have dominated the political stage though there
have been some notable defections from the opposition to the government
side also sparingly. As a result of nearly 26 MPS defecting from the ruling
coalition, including those from the SLFP and other parties, the stage is set
for a sharper contest between Rajapakses and the rest who are opposing
them. The emerging trend seems to be for a change in the governance of
Sri Lanka rather than maintaining the status quo. People who I have spoken
and opposition events and stages can only register negative images of a
government campaigning primarily on external factors rather than the
oppositions main complaint about good governance (yaha palanaya),
corruption, waste, politicization of the judiciary, public service, academia
and even the security forces. Militarisation has been a key issue of
discussion along with the restricted freedoms for the media, and wider
public.
Forecasting
It is not possible to forecast the results of an election without systematically
conducted surveys of voter intentions like in other countries by reputed
polling agencies. Nonetheless, we can analyse the results of previous
elections and set the outcome of such analysis against the developing
context by taking some relevant factors into account.
Thus, one way to forecast the results of forthcoming election is to examine
closely the results of the 2010 Presidential election to see where the
contestants drew their strengths. The results from 2010 election can be
contrasted with politically significant events and issues dominating 2015
election in order to formulate a view about where the trend is? Thus in this
article, I am making an attempt to find out the provinces and districts that
the current President Mahinda Rajapakse had a clear, overwhelming
majority or a reasonable majority while paying attention to the provinces
and districts where the opposition candidate at the time Sarath Fonseka
had a majority. Then on the basis of the currently dominant defections,
other political issues and events, I make a tentative prediction about the
result of the forthcoming election.
In the 2010 elections, Mahinda Rajapakse received a total of 6,015,934
votes (57.88%) and Sarath Fonseka 4,173,185 votes (40.15%). A gap of
about 17.5% points existed between the two. The total polled was 74.49%
(Department of Elections 2010). All other candidates secured between 1.002.00% of total votes only.
Province and District-wise results of the 2010 Presidential election show the
following:
Provinces Where SF was a clear favourite
Eastern Province
Batticaloa (MR 68.93% SF 26.27%)
Digamadulla (MR 47.92% SF 49.94%)
Trincomalee (MR 43.04% SF 54.09%)
(SF was the favourite except in Batticaloa)
Northern Province
Jaffna (MR 24.75% SF 63.84%)
Vanni (MR 27.31% SF 66.86%)
(SF was the clear favourite)
Provinces where MR was a clear favourite
Central Province
Kandy (MR 54.16% SF 43.89%)
Matale (MR 59.74% SF 38.01%)
Nuwara Eliya (MR 43.77% SF 52.14%)
(MR was the favourite except in Nuwara Eliya)
Southern Province
Hambantota (MR 67.21% SF 31.20%)
Matara (MR 65.53% SF 32.86%)
Galle (MR 63.69% SF 34.83%)
(MR was the clear favourite)
Western province
Colombo (MR 52.93% SF 45.90%)
Gampaha (MR 61.66% SF 37.28%)
Kalutara (MR 63.06% SF 35.43%)
(MR was the clear favourite. Colombo was just above the line)
North Western province
Kurunegala (MR 63.08% SF 35.46%)
polled relatively well (i.e. above 50% but below 60%) and in Nuwara Eliya,
the opposition coalition will have a better chance of reaching the goal of
moving above 50%. Added factors such as the defection of Navin
Dissanayake, some Tamil politicians etc. could contribute to this result along
with countrywide dissatisfaction with the regime due to the incumbent
factor and the Rajapakse vs the rest syndrome emerging in the electorate.
Winning by a large majority in these districts by the opposition can also add
substantially to its overall performance in the final countrywide result.
In the 11 districts that MR polled very well in 2010, the battle lines have
been drawn between the ruling coalition and the opposition based on
significant defections from the ruling party to the opposition. For example,
in the Colombo district defections of high profile representatives such as
Rajitha Senarathne, Hirunika Premachandra and others can swing the result
in the oppositions way considerably. In the North Central province, the
defection of Maithripala Sirisena and all those provincial and Pradesheeya
sabha members could have a significant impact on the voter base of MR.
This impact can spill over to surrounding provinces also. In the Eastern
province, the defections of Muslim Congress, and other Muslim politicians
can have a significant impact on the MR voter base. The impact of minor
parties likeJathika Hela Urumaya along with Arjuna and Chandrika factors
can have an impact on Gampaha district, which is considered part of the
Sinhalese Buddhist heartland. In the so-called Dharmapala Belt (suburbs
and districts in greater Colombo), this impact may be more visible. Given
the recent result of the Uva province council elections, it may be within the
reach of the opposition also.
Though there is Sajith Premadasa factor in the Hambantota district, I still
believe that MR will perform very well or in fact very well in districts such as
Hambantota, Matara, and Galle (due to the war hero factor, Rajapakse
factor and Southern development factor), Gampaha (he may still poll above
50% due to Basil factor), North Western Province and the Sabaragamuwa
including one from Colombo University, suggests a victory for the common
candidate though there is a significant portion of undecided voters at this
stage (see Colombo Telegraph 02.01.2015). They predict 53% for Sirisena
and 44% for Rajapakse. This is in broad correspondence with my own
prediction as mentioned above.
There is also some anecdotal evidence of a mood change in the broader
electorate this time. A village level supporter of Rajapakses in the Southern
Province recently acknowledged that there is a mood for change among
people this time around compared to 2010. He stated that people are
intelligent (buddhimat) though they are being bombarded with election
propaganda. He also admitted that the opposition candidate is being denied
access to public facilities for grounds, meeting halls etc. in the area.
Another person from Kandy province indicated that all the customers who
visit her shop criticise the present regime on various grounds. Some
university educated colleagues who returned from Sri Lanka to Australia
recently acknowledge that there is a mood for change but some believe
voters will also not forget the infrastructure development work by the
Rajapakses. For example, he cited the Colombo-Katunayake expressway
and Colombo-Matara highway. These have shortened travel time between
various locations. Yet these returnees were also concerned about the high
cost of highways and other mega projects as reported by ruling party
insiders who have now defected.
At the conclusion of his review of Jayasuriyas book, Perera says,
In the final analysis, it is clear that at the beginning of electoral politics in
the country and well into the mid 1970s, it was possible to witness a
blossoming of party politics in a bipolar party system (141). However,
the dream of democratic politics that was initiated by the early generations
of Sri Lankan political leaders and achieved up to a point, has been steadily
dismantled since the late 1970s..Within the script of this political tragedy