MODELE MATEMATICE UTILIZATE IN ANALIZA

FENOMENULUI TERRORIST
Abstract: Complexitatea fenomenului terrorist si internationalizarea
acestuia, imprevizibilitatea cu care aceste organizatii isi aleg obiectivele si
metodele utilizate pentru atingerea lor, fac imposibila realizarea unui model
efficient de analiza si predictie.
Analiza datelor statistice combinata cu diferite metode de interpolare
constituie unul din instrumentele care pot fi utilizete in predictia diferitelor
aspecte ale fenomenului terrorist.
In acest articol sunt analizate, din punct de vedere cantitativ,
incidentele teroriste inregistrate la nivel global si pe zone geografice, pentru
a vedea in ce masura predictiile pe zone geografice se potrivesc cu cele
realizate la nivel global.
Analizele au fost realizate pe baza datelor statistice inregistrate in
perioada 1991-2006 si prin utilizarea programului Matlab unde am ales

optiunea de interpolare cu functii spline, tinand cont de

proprietatile acestora.
1. Generalities
Radicalizarea fenomenului terrorist din ultima perioada si
internationalizarea acestuia, precum si dorinta unor organizatii
teroriste de a utilize in viitoarele atacuri arme de distrugere in masa
reclama din partea comunitatii internationale o pozitie ferma si
eficace, precum si realizarea unor structuri de monitorizare si
contracarare a actiunilor intreprinse de aceste organizatii.
Certain states continue to finance and logistically support the
terrorist groups. Training camps are to be found in Asia Middle
East and north Africa. Terrorists are constantly improving their
methods in terms of technique and public opinion and mass media
manipulation. The Middle East is the most active and dangerous
source of terrorism. There are other areas with an intense terrorist
activity such as Algeria where the fundamentalist Islamic
organizations use this procedure to fight against the government, a
phenomenon that occurs in Egypt as well. In the Cecenia,

devastated after the war against Russia, terrorism is used by

different warrior groups in order to undermine the nationalist
government and to obtain material resources to redeem the
hostages generally foreign citizens with financial means.
Terrorism is however present in other geographical areas as well.
Latin America is dominated by urban and rural guerillas animated
by the left wing political doctrines; in Europe terrorism is active
both in the economically developed states such as northern Ireland
and Spain and in the Balkans such as Bosnia Herzegovina and
Kosovo, Greece and Turkey.
Starting from the transnational and asymmetric character of
terrorism, the main terrorist threat seems to be the possibility of a
organization, terrorist group or terrorists making use of weapons
of mass destruction; the possible attacks on nuclear bases, on
chemical enterprises, biological laboratories, etc. launched in order
to obtain nuclear, chemical or biological weapons, or to denote
such bombs in order to produce devastating damages.
The spectrum of terrorist threats is wider and practically no
complete classified list of all terrorist threats can be drawn up
given their diversity and rapid occurrence.
2. Mathematical modeling of terrorist actions
An inventory of the terrorist incidents and the
accomplishment of some statistical analysis will not be enough if
we want to obtain some predictions that canalize the most adequate
means and resources of terrorist actions prevention and
counterattack.
We will further on present the results regarding the terrorist
actions from the period 1991-2006 by introducing a histogram and
predicting the number of terrorist attacks for the following period.
The study does not aim at making assertions regarding
concepts, classifications, criteria, etc. it only intends to analyze the
official data of the site http://www.tkb.org from a numerical and
quantitative point of view. The purpose of this analysis is to form
an overall picture of the terrorist incidents and their consequences

and to conceive a short term prediction regarding the scope of this

phenomenon.
The first diagram presents the number of terrorist incidents
that occurred worldwide from 1991 to 2006.

Fig. 1

In cele ce urmeaza sunt prezentate incidentele teroriste

inregistrate pe zone geografice.

Fig.2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Moving on to the analysis of data and to obtaining a

prediction for the upcoming period, it has to be mentioned that the
prediction is done by keeping an account of the data registered
until 2006 and by using some interpolation methods. Such a
prediction can only be relative given the diversity of actions
resorted to, of changes that occur in the organization of the terrorist
networks that gain in autonomy and in decision making power, but
this is however a first estimation of the scope terrorist actions
would gain during the upcoming period.
The interpolation is a method used in order to approximate
data in the analyzed interval, an extension of the obtained function
through continuity seldom leading to an appropriate result.
By analyzing the data
>> x = [0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6]
y = [420 272 272 310 268 238 184 1286 1171 1151 1732 2648
1897 2646 4976 6588]
>> tempa = spline(x,y,1.7)
tempa = 4853.5

and by achieving the interpolation with their function we get a

number of 4853 terrorist attacks for the year 2007. This prediction
is achieved by using the Matlab program.
In the same way we can predict the terrorist incident which
can occur in 2007 on geographical areas.
in Africa we have:
>> x = [0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6]
y = [13 33 57 85 48 39 16 107 53 28 27 29 29 36 42 64]
>> tempa = spline(x,y,1.7)
tempa = 127.2
in East & Central Asia we have:
>> x = [0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6]
y = [6 2 7 6 7 9 32 10 10 25 12 13 15 8 3]
>> tempa = spline(x,y,1.7)
tempa = 14.9
in Eastern Europe we have:
>> x = [0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6]
y = [10 7 12 21 12 13 22 311 86 28 104 215 125 169 155 130]
>> tempa = spline(x,y,1.7)
tempa = 254.9
in Latin America & the Caribbean we have:
>> x = [0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6]
y = [122 81 47 55 22 40 40 186 114 225 163 477 199 107 148 152]
>> tempa = spline(x,y,1.7)
tempa = 20.3
in Middle East / Persian Gulf we have:
>> x = [0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6]
y = [102 59 65 73 40 44 27 205 352 310 509 626 497 1355 3042 4520]
>> tempa = spline(x,y,1.7)
tempa = 4639.9
in North America we have:
>> x = [0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6]
y = [4 2 3 3 1 2 16 7 8 9 36 16 18 8 14 4]
>> tempa = spline(x,y,1.7)

tempa = -77.3
in South Asia we have:
>> x = [0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6]
y = [27 5 9 8 17 22 15 123 85 96 180 811 610 463 883 1206]
>> tempa = spline(x,y,1.7)
tempa = 533.2
in Southeast Asia & Oceania we have:
>> x = [0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6]
y = [10 13 17 14 4 13 13 31 30 73 139 121 31 220 426 357]
>> tempa = spline(x,y,1.7)
tempa = -237.2
in Western Europe we have:
>> x = [0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6]
y = [126 70 55 51 118 58 26 284 433 372 549 341 375 273 258
152]

>> tempa = spline(x,y,1.7)

tempa = -401
Evident ca in realitate nu putem obtine valori negative. Insa,
tinand cont de datele obtinute mai inainte putem trage urmatoarele
concluzii:
suma incidentelor teroriste predictionate pe zone
geografice este foarte aproape de cifra obtinuta la nivel
global;
acolo unde am obtinut valori negative inseamna ca
probabilitatea de a avea loc incidente teroriste in acele
zone este foarte mica ;
cele mai active zone sunt Middle East / Persian Gulf,
South Asia si Eastern Europe;
ingrijorator este faptul ca numarul acestora a crescut,
practic inregistrandu-se in ultimii ani o crestere de
peste zece ori fata de media inregistrata la inceputul
anilor 90.
Conchidem aceasta analiza cu observatia ca fenomenul
terrorist cunoaste in ultimii ani o radicalizare accentuata, printr-o

crestere alarmanta a numarului incidentelor teroriste, a numarului

de victime rezultate in urma acestora, a obiectivelor vizate si a
metodelor utilizate si mai ales a dorintei de a utilize in viitor arme
de distrugere in masa.
Bibliography
[1] Vasile Carutasu, Ghi Brsan, Aplicatii ale modelarii si
simularii actiunilor militare, Editura Academiei Fortelor Terestre,
Sibiu, 2006, 110 pagini, ISBN 973-7809-65-3, 978-973-7809-65-0
[2] Vasile Cruau, Mircea Cosma, The Statistical Analysis of the
Terrorist Phenomenon, 7-8 March, 2007, Brno, Czech Republic
[3] Vasile Cruau,
Stoina Neculai, Consideraii privind
amploarea fenomenului terorist n perioada 1991-2003, Sesiunea
de comunicri tiinifice a U.N.Ap. cu participare internaional,
Bucureti, 14-15 aprilie, 2005, ISBN 973-663-182-6
www.tkb.org