PDI Enrollment Study April 2007

SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
PROJECTIONS FOR
BRUNSWICK
FINAL REPORT
2006-07
Prepared for:
The Brunswick School Department
Prepared by:
Planning Decisions, Inc.
P.O. Box 2414
South Portland, ME 04116-2414
April 2007
Table of Contents
Page
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
I.
Introduction & Methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
II.
Review of Previous Enrollment Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
III.
Enrollment of Brunswick Resident Students. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

A.
B.
IV.
Historical Entering First Grade Enrollment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Factors Influencing Entering First Grade Class Sizes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Recent Resident Birth Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Projections of Entering First Grade Class Sizes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Elementary School Enrollment (K-5). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

A.
B.
VI.
Impact of NASB Closing on School Enrollment in Brunswick.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

New Brunswick Student In-Migration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
First Grade Enrollment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

A.
B.
C.
D.
V.
Previous Enrollment Projections Grade-by-Grade Comparison. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Grade Group Projections Comparison. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Projections of Entering First Grade Class Sizes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Grade-to-Grade Survival Ratios.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Net Elementary Migration (Grades 1-6). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Summary of Previous Enrollment Projections Comparison. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
2006-07 Best Fit Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

2006-07 NASB Closing Models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Middle School Enrollment (6-8). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

A.
B.
2006-07 Best Fit Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

2006-07 NASB Closing Models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
VII.
High School Enrollment (9-12). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

A.
B.
C.
VIII.
Assessment of Economic Conditions, Population Trends, and Residential Development and Their Relation to School Enrollment. . . . . . . . . 48
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
IX.
Brunswick Resident Enrollment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Durham Choice Tuition Student Enrollment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Enrollment of All Students at the Brunswick High School. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Economic Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Population Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
Residential Development Trends.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Relationship of Residential Development to School Enrollment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Summary and Recommendations Regarding Economic Conditions, Population Trends, and Residential Development. . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Summary of Enrollment Projections for School Planning Purposes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
G.
2006-07 Best Fit Projections of All Brunswick Residents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 1 Projections of All Brunswick Residents.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 2 Projections of All Brunswick Residents.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
2006-07 Best Fit Model for Durham Choice Tuition Enrollment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
2006-07 Best Fit Projections of All Brunswick Residents and Durham Choice Tuition Students. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 1 Projections of All Brunswick Residents and Durham Choice Tuition Students. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 2 Projections of All Brunswick Residents and Durham Choice Tuition Students. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
APPENDIX: Grade by Grade Historical and Projected Enrollment, and Grade Group Summaries
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In completing the updated enrollment projections for Brunswick, the major findings of this study are as follows:
C
Planning Decisions has provided the Brunswick School Department with three sets of enrollment projections for the next ten years. The first set
of projections is based solely on historical resident births trends and historical enrollment trends in Brunswick, this set of projections is called the
2006-07 best fit model. The 2006-07 best fit model does not take into account the closure of Naval Air Station Brunswick (NASB) closing.
The second set of projections called the 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 1 model accounts for a rapid out-migration of personnel from NASB
which begins to impact the Brunswick Schools starting in 2007-08 and has a full impact on school enrollment before the beginning of the 2012-13
school year. This model also takes into account a corresponding increase in enrollment from new residents moving into Brunswick as the military
personnel leave. The third set of projections called the 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 2 accounts for a slower out-migration of personnel
from NASB which begins to impact the Brunswick School Department in 2008-09 and has a full impact on school enrollment before the beginning
of the 2013-14 school year. This model also takes into account a corresponding increase in enrollment from new residents moving into Brunswick
as the military personnel leave.
Both models estimate by 2016-17 enrollment in Brunswick will eventually rebound to become similar to the best fit model as military personnel
lost during the closure of NASB are replaced by new Brunswick residents buying or renting housing units currently occupied by military personnel.
However, since many variables could potentially impact enrollment but currently cannot be measured, Planning Decisions has supplied each of
the three models within ranges of plus and minus 10% to account for fluctuations in school enrollment.
In addition, when planning for school facilities, Planning Decisions strongly recommends against using the low range of the supplied enrollment
projections to assess future school capacity needs. This recommendation is made because although enrollment in Brunswick will likely decline
during certain phases of NASB closure with the low ranges being useful for short-term planning, Planning Decisions does believe Brunswicks
school population will NOT remain at the low enrollment levels for the long-term. In fact, Planning Decisions believes future school enrollment
in Brunswick will eventually come in line with the historical enrollment figures in Brunswick, and be more similar to the 2006-07 best fit model
following the full closure of NASB and redevelopment of NASB property.
Planning Decisions recommends that the Brunswick School Department continue to monitor school enrollment trends on a year-by-year basis to
determine the eventual impacts of NASB closing on school enrollment, and to monitor the sale of and redevelopment of NASB.
Planning Decisions suggests the Brunswick School Department monitor the military dependent out-migration by staying in touch with their
families, and by asking the military dependent families when they may choose to leave, and if they could keep the school informed of their
departure plans.
Brunswick Enrollment Report FINAL 2006-07 07-801 4-3-2007.wpd - April 2007
Page 1
Page 2
A review of the previously completed enrollment projections compared with actual 2006-07 enrollment indicated the following:
<
Overall, the 2003-04 best fit projections, underestimated total K-12 enrollment for 2006-07, underestimating total K-12 enrollment in
2006-07 by about 4%. Since the best fit model came close to projecting first grade enrollment for 2006-07, or overestimated the first
grade by 8 students, it appears first grade enrollment in Brunswick is following historical enrollment trends. Regardless, the slight
overestimation of the 2006-07 first grade enrollment by 8 students were taken into account when updating the enrollment projections, as
was the underestimation of total K-12 enrollment.
<
Based on this analysis, although grades 1-2 experienced a high level of in-migration between 2005-06 and 2006-07, Planning Decisions
found nothing to suggest that migration trends are changing between these grade levels, or at the other grade levels. Regardless, Planning
Decisions recommends that the Brunswick School Department keep an eye on future grade-to-grade migration, specifically at grades 1-2
for potential changes migration trends.
<
Planning Decisions previous projections for 2006-07 reflected an out-migration of about 17 students in grades 1-6, while an in-migration
of 29 students occurred between 2005-06 and 2006-07. When Planning Decisions completed the 2003-04 best fit model, a decline in
the level of out-migration with some slight in-migration was occurring. Based on the most recent enrollment data, average elementary
migration may be changing to an average in or out-migration of only a few students compared with the larger out-migrations seen
previously. In addition, the recent change in elementary migration trends was taken into account when updating the enrollment projections.
A review of residential development trends in Brunswick suggests the following:

<
Over the last three years (2004 to 2006), residential growth in Brunswick, or 87 new housing units annually, has been at lower levels
compared with the last five years (2002 to 2006), or 96 new housing units annually, and the last ten years (1997 to 2006) or 81 new housing
units annually.
<
Based this analysis, Planning Decisions estimates future residential development will fluctuate year-to-year, with some years experiencing
higher levels of development compared with other years, and will likely fall somewhere between 85 and 95 new housing units added
annually, and will likely average around 90 housing units added annually.
<
The 2006-07 best fit model adequately accounted for the impact of residential development on preschool migration, and based on recent
trends, residential development does not have a correlating impact on elementary migration trends. Therefore, a second model based on
residential development trends was not created.
Planning Decisions strongly recommends that the Brunswick School Department do the following over the next ten years:
<
Keep a close eye on school enrollment trends, local housing unit development, and housing stock turnover trends during the closing of
NASB.
<
Keep track of the home addresses of both military dependent students leaving the school system and the newly enrolled resident students
in Brunswick to determine if those military dependent students are being replaced by new civilian students, and/or if more new civilian
students are replacing those military students lost.
<
Continually re-evaluate school enrollment trends each year during the closing of NASB to determine changes in school enrollment in
Brunswick during the closing process.
In addition, since the future for Brunswick regarding the redevelopment of NASB still remains uncertain, Planning Decisions provided
school enrollment trends within ranges of plus and minus 10% to account for fluctuations in enrollment that are likely to occur during the closing
process.
Regardless, since different scenarios may develop over the next five to ten years during the closing of NASB, Planning Decisions
strongly recommends that the Brunswick School Department closely monitor future residential growth and population changes within
the Town, and continues to monitor school enrollment trends on a yearly basis.
Page 3
Factors Influencing Entering Class Size (First Grade):

Resident Birth Trends:
Page 4
<
Birth levels among Brunswick residents during the ten-year period (1990-91 to 1999-00), declined on average. The average number of
births over the last five years of the period, (1995-96 to 1999-00), was 245 births, which is lower than the average for the first five years
of the period (1990-91 to 1994-95), or 267 births. The decline in resident births between 1995-96 and 1999-00 has placed downward
pressure on entering first grade class sizes over the last five years. The most recent five-year period (2001-02 to 2005-06) averaged 235
births, while the previous five-year period (1996-97 to 2000-01) had a similar average of births at 237 births. However, over the last three
years (2003-04 to 2005-06) the average of births to Brunswick residents was higher than the most recent five-year average, averaging 242
births. The increase in resident births is the result of two years 2004-05 and 2005-06, experiencing unusually high level of births. In
addition, while resident births have increased on average, births have also fluctuated significantly year-to-year, causing the first grade class
sizes to fluctuate year-to-year. Therefore, the Brunswick School Department should keep an eye on year-to-year resident birth trends.
Based on the last three-year trends, resident births should continue to average about 242 births annually, although year-to-year fluctuations
will continue to occur.
<
Planning Decisions obtained data on the number of Brunswick residents births to military personnel. This data was compiled from
information parents provided when filing out information to obtain a birth certificate. While the data was collected through 2005, the
Maine Department of Human Services no longer requires hospitals to collect the information and no longer codes the birth data they receive
to include parent occupation or employer. In addition, while the birth data Planning Decisions uses to project school enrollment is based
on October 15th through October 14th of a year, the military dependent resident birth data is based on a calendar year. While this is an
imperfect date correlation, it will provide Planning Decisions with a reasonable estimate of how many of Brunswick resident births are
military dependents.
<
Between 1996 and 2005, the number of military dependent births in Brunswick has, on average, remained fairly stable. Over the ten-year
period of 1996 and 2005, military dependent births in Brunswick averaged 75 births annually, ranging between 63 and 88 births. The
most recent five-year period (2001 to 2005) averaged 75 births, while the previous five-year period (1996 to 2000) also averaged 75 births.
However, over the last three years (2003 to 2005) the average of births to military dependents in Brunswick was slightly higher than the
most recent five-year average, averaging 78 births. The increase in resident births is the result of one year 2005, experiencing an unusually
high level of births. In addition, while resident births have increased on average, births have also fluctuated significantly year-to-year,
causing the first grade class sizes to fluctuate year-to-year. Planning Decisions will assume when Naval Air Station Brunswick closes,
resident births should decline by about 75 births annually, or Brunswick resident births should average around 160 births annually. This
estimate does not take into consideration changes in the population due to new families moving into the housing formerly occupied
by the NASB personnel.
Net Preschool Migration Trends:

<
The net out-migration of preschool-aged children over the last five years (2002-03 to 2006-07) has been at lower levels, on average,
compared with what occurred during the previous five-year period (1997-98 to 2001-02). Over the last five years, net preschool outmigration has decline, while continuing to place downward pressure on entering first grade class sizes. Planning Decisions projects
preschool out-migration will continue at a level similar to what has occurred over the last three years, and will continue to place downward
pressure on entering first grade class sizes in Brunswick.
Taken together, a decline in the level of resident births combined with a decline in the out-migration of preschool-aged children,
has resulted in entering first grade class sizes that, on average, have remained fairly stable over the last ten years. In addition, an increase
in resident births combined with a continuation of an out-migration of preschool-aged students will result in a slight decline in first grade
class sizes in the future. This estimate does not take into consideration changes in the population due the closing of the NASB.
Page 5
2006-07 Best Fit Projections for All Brunswick Residents

Planning Decisions 2006-07 best fit model is based on average resident birth levels in Brunswick between 2003-04 and 2005-06, and on a
continuation of an out-migration of preschool-aged children similar to the level occurring over the last three years. This model is based on
historical resident birth and enrollment trends and does not take into account a reduction in enrollment from closing Naval Air Station
Brunswick or corresponding enrollment increases from new residents moving into Brunswick.
School Enrollment Projection Ranges - 2007-08 to 2016-17 (K-12)
All Brunswick Residents - 2006-07 Best Fit Model
School
Year
Grades (K-5)
-10%
2006-07*
Proj.
+10%
Grades (6-8)
-10%
1,399
Proj.
+10%
-10%
714
Proj.
+10%
1,034
1,224
1,360
1,496
678
714
785
926
1,029
1,132
2008-09
1,177
1,308
1,439
709
746
821
912
1,013
1,114
2009-10
1,179
1,310
1,441
690
726
799
879
977
1,075
2010-11
1,167
1,297
1,427
690
726
799
867
963
1,059
2011-12
1,184
1,316
1,448
651
685
754
890
989
1,088
2012-13
1,205
1,339
1,473
651
685
754
860
955
1,051
2013-14
1,224
1,360
1,496
614
646
711
876
973
1,070
2014-15
1,234
1,371
1,508
604
636
700
857
952
1,047
2015-16
1,253
1,392
1,531
605
637
701
805
894
983
2016-17
1,248
1,387
1,526
629
662
728
802
891
980
st
Sources: *2006-07 - current enrollment based on October 1 Enrollment Reports, all

other years - Projected by Planning Decisions, Inc., April 2007.
First Grade Class Size:

T Under the 2006-07 best fit model, Planning Decisions projects first grade
enrollment of all Brunswick residents will experience yearly swings
corresponding with swings in resident births, with enrollment ranging
between 210 and 249 students through 2016-17. In addition, Brunswick
should experience an average first grade enrollment of 226 students over
the next ten years.
Grades (9-12)
2007-08
Page 6
<
<
Grade Group Enrollment:

T Grades K-5 enrollment of Brunswick students will decline from the current
enrollment of 1,399 students, ranging between 1,297 and 1,392 students
through 2016-17.
T Grades 6-8 enrollment of Brunswick students will remain similar to the
current enrollment of 714 students, ranging between 685 and 746 students
through 2012-13. Following 2012-13, enrollment will decline to range
between 636 and 662 students through 2016-17.
T Grades 9-12 enrollment of Brunswick students will decline from the current
enrollment of 1,034 students, to reach 891 students by 2016-17.
2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 1 Model for All Brunswick Residents

Planning Decisions 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 1 model is first based on the 2006-07 best fit model, then takes into account a reduction
in enrollment due to the closing of Naval Air Station Brunswick which relates to the stages of military personnel deployment to occur over the
next four years. Planning Decisions considers this model to be based on a more aggressive reduction of students compared with the 2006-07
NASB Closing Scenario 2 model presented on the following page. In other words, this model estimates a decline in enrollment will occur in
larger amounts over a short period of time. This model also accounts for an increase in school population from new students moving into housing
units vacated by military personnel. A discussion of how these projections were developed can be found in Section III of this report.
All Brunswick Residents - 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 1 Model
School
Year
Grades (K-5)
-10%
2006-07*
Proj.
+10%
Grades (6-8)
-10%
1,399
Proj.
<
T Under the 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 1 model, Planning Decisions

projects first grade enrollment of Brunswick residents (less those military
dependents leaving plus new residents coming in) will experience yearly
swings, and declines in enrollment, with enrollment ranging between 184
and 241 students through 2016-17.
Grades (9-12)
+10%
-10%
714
Proj.
+10%
1,034
2007-08
1,206
1,340
1,474
636
707
778
921
1,023
1,125
2008-09
1,087
1,208
1,329
640
711
782
882
980
1,078
2009-10
1,017
1,130
1,243
597
663
729
824
916
1,008
2010-11
1,059
1,177
1,295
616
684
752
831
923
1,015
2011-12
1,130
1,256
1,382
598
664
730
872
969
1,066
2012-13
1,169
1,299
1,429
604
671
738
848
942
1,036
2013-14
1,206
1,340
1,474
575
639
703
869
966
1,063
2014-15
1,234
1,371
1,508
572
636
700
857
952
1,047
2015-16
1,253
1,392
1,531
573
637
701
805
894
983
2016-17
1,248
1,387
1,526
596
662
728
802
891
980
st
Sources: *2006-07 - current enrollment based on October 1 Enrollment Reports, all

<

T Grades K-5 enrollment will decline from the current enrollment of 1,399
students, to reach 1,130 students by 2009-10. Following 2009-10,
enrollment will increase to reach 1,340 students by 2013-14. Following
2013-14 enrollment will increase further to range between 1,371 and 1,392
students through 2016-17.
T Grades 6-8 enrollment will decline from the current enrollment of 714
students, to range between 664 and 711 students through 2012-13.
Following 2012-13, enrollment will decline further to range between 636
and 662 students through 2016-17.
T Grades 9-12 enrollment will decline from the current enrollment of 1,034
students, to reach 980 students by 2008-09. Following 2008-09, enrollment
will decline further to range between 916 and 969 students through
2014-15. Following 2014-15, enrollment will decline further to reach 891
students by 2016-17.
Page 7
2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 2 Model for All Brunswick Residents

Planning Decisions 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 2 model is first based on the 2006-07 best fit model, then takes into account a reduction
in enrollment due to the closing of Naval Air Station Brunswick which relates to the stages of military personnel deployment set to occur over
the next four years. Planning Decisions considers this model to be based on a less aggressive reduction of students compared to the 2006-07
NASB Closing Scenario 1 model. In other words, this model estimates a decline in enrollment will occur in smaller amounts over a longer
period of time. This model also accounts for an increase in school population from new students moving into housing units vacated by military
personnel. A discussion of how these projections were developed can be found in Section III of this report.
All Brunswick Residents - 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 2 Model
School
Year
Grades (K-5)
-10%
2006-07*
Proj.
+10%
Grades (6-8)
-10%
1,399
Proj.
+10%
<
T Under the 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 2 model, Planning Decisions

projects first grade enrollment of Brunswick residents (less those military
dependents leaving plus new residents coming in) will experience yearly
swings, and declines in enrollment, with enrollment ranging between 187
and 232 students.
Grades (9-12)
-10%
714
Proj.
+10%
1,034
2007-08
1,224
1,360
1,496
643
714
785
926
1,029
1,132
2008-09
1,159
1,288
1,417
665
739
813
906
1,007
1,108
2009-10
1,107
1,230
1,353
628
698
768
855
950
1,045
2010-11
1,059
1,177
1,295
616
684
752
831
923
1,015
2011-12
1,040
1,156
1,272
566
629
692
842
935
1,029
2012-13
1,079
1,199
1,319
572
636
700
817
908
999
2013-14
1,152
1,280
1,408
556
618
680
851
946
1,041
2014-15
1,198
1,331
1,464
560
622
684
845
939
1,033
2015-16
1,235
1,372
1,509
567
630
693
798
887
976
2016-17
1,248
1,387
1,526
596
662
728
802
891
980
<
Sources: *2006-07 - current enrollment based on October 1 st Enrollment Reports, all

Page 8

T Grades K-5 enrollment will decline from the current enrollment of 1,399
enrollment will increase yearly to reach 1,387 students by 2016-17.
T Grades 6-8 enrollment will decline from the current enrollment of 714
2016-17.
T Grades 9-12 enrollment will decline from the current enrollment of 1,034
2016-17.
2006-07 Best Fit Model for Durham Choice Tuition Students:

Planning Decisions 2006-07 best fit model of Durham choice tuition student enrollment is first based on the 2006-07 best fit model for all
Durham students. Then takes into account a reduction in projected 9-12 Durham enrollment due to some Durham students (approximately 14%
of total 9-12 Durham students) choosing to attend high schools other than Brunswick High School. These projections should provide the
Brunswick School Department with reasonable estimates of future Durham choice tuition enrollment.
Durham Choice Tuition Students Enrollment - 2006-07 Best Fit Model
School
Year
Grades (9-12)
-5%
2006-07*
Proj.
+5%
183
2007-08
158
166
174
2008-09
153
161
169
2009-10
143
151
159
2010-11
143
150
158
2011-12
135
142
149
2012-13
131
138
145
2013-14
135
142
149
2014-15
126
133
140
2015-16
127
134
141
2016-17
141
148
155

T Under the 2006-07 best fit model, Planning Decisions
projects that 9-12 enrollment of Durham choice tuition
students will decline from the current enrollment of 183
students, to reach 150 students by 2010-11. Following
2010-11, enrollment will decline further to range
st
Sources: *2006-07 - current enrollment based on October 1 Enrollment Reports, all other years Projected by Planning Decisions, Inc., April 2007.
Page 9
TECHNICAL NOTES FROM THE ENROLLMENT STUDY:

!
Resident Births:
<
Page 10
Planning Decisions does not use the calendar year to determine the number of resident births in a year to project future entering first grade
class sizes but instead bases the birth year on when a student is eligible to enroll, or from October 15th of one year to October 14th of the
next. Because the data supplied by the Office of Data, Research, and Vital Statistics at the Maine Department of Human Services for
October is based on October 1st to the 31st, the October births were split in half so that one half is put into one year and the other half is
put into the following years birth figures. This allows the cohort survival model to more accurately project entering first grade class sizes.
Birth data from calendar years 2004 to 2006 is preliminary, but historically this data has been very accurate.
Grade-to-Grade Net Migration Ratios:

<
In making grade-to-grade projections, Planning Decisions analyzes the historical average grade-to-grade survival ratios over the last 10,
5, 4, and 3-year periods, and applies the average that displays the strongest statistical relationship to existing class sizes and the
projections of entering first grade class sizes.
<
When net migration ratios are discussed throughout the study, a ratio higher than 1.000 indicates a net in-migration of children occurred,
and a ratio less than 1.000 indicates a net out-migration of children occurred.
Changes in Resident Student Counts:

<
Starting in 2003-04 school year, the Maine Department of Education no longer allowed for Non-Mainstreamed Special Education students
to be accounted for separately on the October 1st Enrollment Reports. Instead, these students were accounted for in the individual grades
based on their age. This change was made to be consistent with the No Child Left Behind Act and the new Maine Educational Data
Management System (MEDMS).
<
Starting in 2006-07, the Maine Department of Education has school districts uploading enrollment information to MEDMS verse filing
the EF-M-11 Resident Enrollment reports. This change may cause data consistency problems with whether some resident students are
included in the resident enrollment data.
Resident Enrollment Projections Ranges:

<
To provide reasonable cushions for use in the planning of school facilities, Planning Decisions has summarized school enrollment
projections for the best fit model by grade group and presented the projections within ranges of plus and minus 10% at the PreK-12 grade
levels for Brunswick residents and plus and minus 5% for grades 9-12 of Durham choice tuition enrollment.
Page 11
I.
INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY
Change in school enrollment derives from two sources: changes in the number of births to residents in a community, and net migration of preschool and
school-aged children into and out of the community. These projections reflect both sources of change.
These projections are based on Planning Decisions in-house cohort survival model which contains two steps. First, we analyze historical trends and
relationships between entering class sizes (first grade enrollment) and resident births in the year that is six years prior to the enrollment year. Correlation
coefficients (using Pearsons r-squared) are calculated for the last three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine and ten-year periods regarding the relationship
between first grade enrollment and births. The correlation coefficients are examined to determine which period represents the statistical best fit for
projecting future first grade enrollment based on resident birth data.
Second, we analyze historical trends at each grade level. Specifically, we examine the grade-to-grade survival ratios. These ratios represent the number
of students in a grade in one year (i.e., 1st grade in 2005-06) in relation to the number of students in the next grade the following year (i.e., 2nd grade in
2006-07). Then we calculate correlation coefficients (using Pearsons r-squared) for the last three, four, five, and ten-year periods regarding the
relationship between enrollment in a grade in one year and the next grade the following year to determine which period represents the statistical best fit
at each of the grade levels. The grade-to-grade ratios that represent the best fit are then applied to the current enrollment in each grade and projected
first grade classes to project enrollment for the next ten years.
Section II of this report compares the previous projections completed by Planning Decisions to the actual enrollment in 2006-07. Section III discusses
total enrollment in Brunswick, enrollment of military dependent and traditional Brunswick residents, and the potential impact of NASB closing.
Sections IV to VII of this report provide historical enrollment trends and three sets of enrollment projections which project enrollment through 2016-17
for each grade and by grade group.
Section VIII of this report presents economic conditions, population trends, and residential development factors that may influence enrollment projections.
Section IX contains tables that summarize enrollment projections for each grade grouping within ranges of plus and minus 10% at the PreK-12 grade levels
for use in planning of school facilities in Brunswick. In addition, Durham choice tuition student enrollment in grades 9-12 are supplied within ranges
of plus and minus 5%.
Grade by grade historical and projected enrollment figures are presented for Brunswick in the report Appendix.
Page 12
II.
REVIEW OF PREVIOUS ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Planning Decisions had previously completed school enrollment projections for the Brunswick School Department and projected grade by grade
enrollment. This section compares those past projections for the 2006-07 school year against the actual October 1, 2006 enrollment.
A.
Previous Enrollment Projections Grade-by-Grade Comparison
Table II-1 shows the variation between the previous enrollment projections and the current 2006-07 enrollment. Under the 2003-04 best fit
projections for 2006-07, Planning Decisions underestimated enrollment in the seventh grade (by 30 students), the ninth grade (by 35 students), and the
tenth grade (39 students). Overall this model overestimated enrollment for the total of all grades by 130 students, or by 4.1% of total K-12 enrollment.
The 2003-04 best fit projections were based on a preschool net migration ratio of 0.970. The slight overestimation of the first grade enrollment suggests
that the actual level of preschool in-migration was similar to what was used by this model.
Table II-1 - Planning Decisions Enrollment Projections for 2006-07 vs. Actual Enrollment in 2006-07
Brunswick School Department
Difference of Actual Enrollment vs. Enrollment Projection
(Actual - Projections)
#
% Diff.
(4)
(1.9)%
(8)
(3.5)%
9
3.6%
(2)
(1.0)%
11
4.2%
12
4.9%
1
0.4%
30
12.7%
(11)
(4.5)%
35
11.9%
39
14.2%
Grade
2003-04
Best Fit M odel
Current
2006-07 Enrollment
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
213
236
242
209
249
232
229
207
258
259
236
209
228
251
207
260
244
230
237
247
294
275
11
228
240
12
5.0%
12
K-5
6-8
9-12
Total
219
1,381
694
942
3,017
225
1,399
714
1,034
3,147
6
18
20
92
130
2.7%
1.3%
2.8%
8.9%
4.1%
Sources: Planning Decisions, Inc. Projections, 2006-07 enrollment from October 1 st Resident Enrollment Report.
Page 13
B.
Grade Group Projections Comparison
The Brunswick School Department consists of Kindergarten through the twelfth grade and operates with three grade groupings; Kindergarten to
fifth, sixth to eighth, and ninth to twelfth grade. In the previous enrollment reports, Planning Decisions summarized the projections into the grade
groupings and presented the projections within ranges of plus and minus 10% at the K-5 grade level and plus and minus 5% at the 6-8 and 9-12 grade
levels. Table II-2 present the projected 2006-07 enrollment ranges completed previously, along with the actual enrollment based on the 2006-07 October
1st Resident Enrollment Reports. Actual enrollment for October 2006 at the grade group level fell within the ranges projected by Planning Decisions
previously with the exception of the underestimation of the 9-12 projections by the 2003-04 best fit model.
Table II-2 - Actual Enrollment vs. Planning Decisions Projected Ranges by Grade Group for the 2006-07 School Year
2003-04 Best Fit Model
Current 2006-07
Grade Group
Enrollment
Proj.
Proj. Range
K-5
1,381
1,243 - 1,519
1,399
6-8
694
625 - 763
714
9-12
942
895 - 989
1,034
Source: Planning Decisions, Inc. Projections; October 1 st Resident Enrollment Report.
Page 14
C.
Projections of Entering First Grade Class Sizes
The key factor in future school enrollment is the size of the entering class. Planning Decisions projection models use the first grade as the entering
class size. Planning Decisions model does not use the Kindergarten class as the entering class because it is often subject to policy changes over time that
can impact enrollment (i.e., changes from half day to full day Kindergarten) and changes in when parents decide to start children in the school system.
As indicated in Tables II-1, the actual number of first grade students based on the October 1st 2006 data was 228 students, 8 students less than
projected by the 2003-04 best fit model. Understanding the source of the difference is important in refining the future projections.
Entering first grade class sizes are influenced by several factors including:
Resident births
Net preschool migration (net effect of households with preschoolers moving into the school district versus out of the school district)
Patterns regarding the age when parents start children in the school system
Patterns regarding children entering public versus private schools
Since the best fit model came close to projecting first grade enrollment for 2006-07, it appears first grade enrollment in Brunswick is following
historical enrollment trends. Regardless, the slight overestimation of the 2006-07 first grade enrollment by 8 students will be taken into account when
updating the enrollment projections.
Page 15
D.
Grade-To-Grade Survival Ratios
In making grade-to-grade projections, Planning Decisions uses a cohort survival model. With a cohort survival model, projections for grades 2-12
are calculated by applying a survival ratio to existing class sizes. The survival ratio represents the historical ratio of enrollment in a given grade in one
year in comparison to enrollment in the previous grade the prior year (for example, the ratio between the 2006-07 third grade class and 2005-06 second
grade class). Grade-to-grade survival ratios can be influenced by several factors including:
Net migration (net affect of households moving into the school district versus out of the school district),
Drop-out rates (students at the high school grades dropping out of school),
Retention (students having to repeat a grade and being held back from progressing to the next grade), and /or
Students entering or leaving the public school system coming from or going to private schools or home schooling.
In making grade-to-grade projections, Planning Decisions analyzes the historical average grade-to-grade survival ratios over periods of the last
10 years, 5 years, 4 years, and 3 years and applies the average that displays the strongest statistical relationship to existing class sizes and the projections
of entering first grade class sizes. As indicated in Table II-3, the largest variation between projected and actual survival ratios occurred at the first to
second grade level.
After completing the analysis of grade-to-grade enrollment and now the grade-to-grade ratios, the second grade experienced an in-migration from
the first grade while the 2003-04 best fit model projected an out-migration would occur based on historical trends. In addition, the level of in-migration
occurring at grades 1-2 was the highest level of in-migration to occur over the last ten years. However, it was not significantly higher than historical trends,
and migration at grades 1-2 has fluctuated year-to-year between an in-migration and an out-migration of students. Therefore, the higher in-migration may
be the result of a normal fluctuation in trends, however it is too soon to tell if the higher level of in-migration will continue in the future.
Based on this analysis, trends at grades 1-2 do not appear to be changing from an average out-migration to an average in-migration of students.
However, Planning Decisions recommends that the Brunswick School Department keep an eye on grade-to-grade migration trends, specifically at grades
1-2 for changes in migration trends.
Page 16
Table II-3 - Grade-to-Grade Survival Ratios Between 2005-06 and 2006-07

Planning Decisions Projected Ratios vs. Actual Ratios
Grades
Ratios used by the

Actual Ratios Between

2005-06 and 2006-07
Difference
(Actual - Projection)
K-1
0.999
1.022
0.023
1-2
0.989
1.068
0.079
2-3
0.961
0.990
0.029
3-4
0.991
0.985
-0.006
4-5
0.988
1.043
0.055
5-6
0.995
1.041
0.046
6-7
0.996
1.009
0.013
7-8
0.968
0.961
-0.007
8-9
1.067
1.093
0.026
9-10
0.951
0.975
0.024
10-11
0.922
0.902
-0.020
11-12
0.936
0.978
0.042
Sources: Planning Decisions Projections, October 1 st Resident Enrollment Reports.
Page 17
E.
Net Elementary Migration (Grades 1-6)
The survival ratios are an indication of how much net annual migration is occurring at each grade. In making projections and conducting analyses
of school enrollment trends, Planning Decisions typically summarizes net migration levels for the first through sixth grade. Net migration can significantly
influence enrollment at these grade levels. Net migration at the 1-6 level is measured by the total number of students in grades 2-6 in one year minus the
total number of students in grades 1-5 the previous year.
Table II-4 presents annual net elementary migration (1-6) experienced by the Brunswick School Department from 1996-97 to 2006-07, along with
the projected and actual levels of net migration between 2005-06 and 2006-07. Planning Decisions previous projections for 2006-07 reflected an outmigration of about 17students in grades 1-6, while an in-migration of 29 students occurred between 2005-06 and 2006-07. When Planning Decisions
completed the 2003-04 best fit model, migration trends indicate a decline in the level of out-migration with some slight in-migration of elementary
students occurring. Based on the most recent enrollment data, average elementary migration does appear to be changing to an average in or out-migration
of only a few students compared with the larger out-migration seen previously. In addition, the recent change in elementary migration trends will be taken
into account in the future.
Net migration is influenced by two factors; new residential development, and turnover in the existing housing stock. Both factors are influenced
by local and regional economic and housing market conditions. The potential impact of these factors is discussed further in Section VIII of this report.
Page 18
Table II-4 - Net Elementary (Grades 1-6) Migration, 1996-97 to 2006-07

Town of Brunswick
Enrollment Years
Net Migration
1996-97 to 1997-98
(48)
1997-98 to 1998-99
(46)
1998-99 to 1999-00
(46)
1999-00 to 2000-01
(4)
2000-01 to 2001-02
(56)
2001-02 to 2002-03
7
2002-03 to 2003-04
(2)
2003-04 to 2004-05
(1)
2004-05 to 2005-06
(30)
2005-06 to 2006-07
29
10 Year Avg. (97-06)
(20)
5 Year Avg. (02-06)
1
3 Year Avg. (04-06)
(1)
Projected Migration for 2006-07
(17)
2005-06 to 2006-07 Actual Migration
29
Sources: Calculated by Planning Decisions, Inc. based on October 1, Enrollment Reports and Planning Decisions Projections.
Page 19
F.
Summary of Previous Enrollment Projections Comparison
Overall, the 2003-04 best fit projections, underestimated total K-12 enrollment for 2006-07, underestimating total K-12 enrollment in 2006-07
by about 4%. Since the best fit model came close to projecting first grade enrollment for 2006-07, or overestimated the first grade by 8 students, it
appears first grade enrollment in Brunswick is following historical enrollment trends. Regardless, the slight overestimation of the 2006-07 first grade
enrollment by 8 students will be taken into account when updating the enrollment projections, as will the underestimation of total K-12 enrollment in
Brunswick.
Based on this analysis, although grades 1-2 experienced a high level of in-migration between 2005-06 and 2006-07, Planning Decisions found
nothing to suggest migration trends are changing between these grade levels, or at other grade levels. Regardless, Planning Decisions recommends that
the Brunswick School Department keep an eye on future grade-to-grade migration, specifically at grades 1-2 for potential changes in migration trends.
Planning Decisions previous projections for 2006-07 reflected an out-migration of about 17 students in grades 1-6, while an in-migration of 29
students occurred between 2005-06 and 2006-07. When Planning Decisions completed the 2003-04 best fit model, a decline in the level of out-migration
with some slight in-migration appeared to be occurring. Based on the most recent enrollment data, average elementary migration does appear to be
changing to an average in or out-migration of only a few students compared with the larger out-migration seen previously. In addition, the recent change
in elementary migration trends will be taken into account when updating enrollment projections.
Page 20
III.
ENROLLMENT OF BRUNSWICK RESIDENT STUDENTS
The Brunswick School Department educates three different groups of students. The first group is what Planning Decisions refers to as non-military or
traditional students. These traditional students are Brunswick resident students who follow a traditional path through a school system. The second
group of students is called military dependent students, or students who are children of military personnel stationed at Naval Air Station Brunswick,
and are students who generally do not follow a normal path through a school system because of their parents employment requiring frequent relocation.
The third group of students is choice tuition students from the Town of Durham who attend the Brunswick High School. These students are residents
of the Town of Durham who choose to attend high school in Brunswick. Historical and projected enrollment of Durham choice tuition students in grades
9-12 will be discussed in more detail in Section VII of this report.
Table III-1 shows the historical distribution of total K-12 enrollment in Brunswick between non-military and military dependent student enrollment.
Since 1996-97, total K-12 enrollment in Brunswick ranged between 3,169 and 3,249 students through 2002-03. Following 2002-03, enrollment declined
slightly to range between 3,125 and 3,159 students through 2006-07. Brunswicks military dependent enrollment has remained fairly consistent since
1996-97, and accounted for about 19% to 22% of total K-12 enrollment in Brunswick.
School
Year
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
Table III-1 - Historical K-12 Enrollment, 1996-97 to 2006-07

Brunswick, Non-Military (K-12)
Brunswick Military (K-12)
#
%
#
%
2,504
79.0%
665
21.0%
2,546
79.1%
671
20.9%
2,609
80.3%
640
19.7%
2,606
81.4%
596
18.6%
2,578
81.2%
595
18.8%
2,523
79.5%
652
20.5%
2,552
79.9%
643
20.1%
2,498
79.2%
657
20.8%
2,461
77.9%
698
22.1%
2,494
79.0%
664
21.0%
2,435
77.9%
690
22.1%
Total
3,169
3,217
3,249
3,202
3,173
3,175
3,195
3,155
3,159
3,158
3,125
Source: October 1 st Enrollment Reports, data for Military students provided by the Brunswick School Department
Page 21
A.
Impact of NASB Closing on School Enrollment in Brunswick
To provide the Brunswick School Department with comprehensive enrollment projections, Planning Decisions investigated historical enrollment
trends for each group of students. However, while the grade-to-grade data for military dependent students was unavailable for 1996-97 to 2002-03,
total K-12 enrollment data from 1996-97 through 2006-07, and grade-to-grade for 2003-04 through 2006-07 was available for these military dependent
students. Since, the Brunswick School Department estimated the grade-to-grade data prior to 2003-04 based on the total K-12 data and the 2003-04 gradeto-grade data, Planning Decisions was unable to provide a detailed analysis of historical trends and grade-to-grade net migration over the last ten years.
However, based on the total K-12 enrollment, Planning Decisions can provide an estimate of future military dependent students based on the overall
historical K-12 enrollment of these students and the grade-to-grade enrollment of all Brunswick residents. The enrollment of all Brunswick residents was
then reduced by the estimated enrollment of military dependents to determine potential enrollment of non-military or traditional students. While this
is an imperfect measure of historical and future enrollment in Brunswick, it should provide the Brunswick School Department with reasonable estimates
of future enrollment trends for school planning purposes.
Based on total K-12 enrollment trends of military dependent students, Planning Decisions would assume the Brunswick School Department
would experience an enrollment of approximated 675 military dependent students in grades K-12. Or, 400 students in grades K-5, 140 students in grades
6-8, and another 135 students in grades 9-12. However, a major factor which will impact Brunswicks enrollment in the future is the decommissioning
of Naval Air Station Brunswick (NASB).
The decommissioning process will occur in phases with squadrons leaving the Air Station between Fall 2008 and Spring 2010, and all other
personnel (military and federal civilians) leaving between Spring 2010 and 2011 once the squadrons have been realigned. However, this time line is
subject to change, and will be dependent largely on whether the Naval Air Station in Jacksonville Florida is ready to receive the squadrons and additional
personnel. The exact timing of closure will likely change as Naval Air Station Brunswick assesses the closure activities and Jacksonvilles ability to absorb
the additional personnel and equipment, and some will be sent to other locations temporarily, or for approximately 6 months, before going to their
permanent locations. However, the closure time line as of February 2007, has the first squadron set to leave in December 2008, with another leaving in
June 2009, another leaving in October to November 2009, and the final two leaving in December 2009. While three of the squadrons will leave over a
short period of time, or generally over a week, two squadrons, (the squadron leaving in October to December 2009, and one leaving in December 2009)
will take longer to fully deploy, possibly taking up to one year to fully deploy. In addition, once the last of the squadrons personnel have left, the
remaining personnel (such as those with the maintenance department and any administrative staff) will be set to leave the base.
Given that some military personnel are scheduled to leave after a school year begins, projecting student enrollment of military dependent students
becomes more difficult. For example, while some parents may decide to leave prior to the beginning of the school year and/or prior to their military
spouses being moved, some parents may decide to allow their children to finish the school year in Brunswick and then join their spouses the following
spring/summer at their assignments. Estimating the exact timing of when parents will decide to make the move is impossible, however, Planning Decisions
can provide the Brunswick School Department with estimates based on the current closure time line and on a best guess of parental moving choice.
Page 22
In addition, Planning Decisions does strongly suggest that the Brunswick School Department monitor the military dependent out-migration
by staying in touch with their families and by asking the military dependent families when they may choose to leave.
Therefore, based on our conversations with NASB and on Planning Decisions best guess, we will provide the Brunswick School Department
with two scenarios outlining the potential impact on military dependent enrollment during the decommissioning process. The first scenario will assume
a faster out-migration will occur, or NASB Closing Scenario 1 will assume military families will choose to leave prior to the beginning of the school year
during the year their spouses squadron will be deployed. Or, if the squadron is set to leave in December 2008, most personnel will choose to leave prior
to the beginning of the 2008-09 school year. NASB Closing Scenario 2 will assume as slower out-migration occurs, or that some military families will
choose to leave prior to the beginning of the school year, and some families will wait until the following spring. In other words, if a squadron leaves in
December 2008, Planning Decisions will assume fewer students will leave prior to the beginning of the 2008-09 school year. Both Scenarios estimate
some military dependent students will remain following the deployment of the squadrons due to their parents being in the air maintenance department,
administrative functions or in other areas needed through to the final stages of decommissioning.
Planning Decisions estimated that if the NASB did not close, the Brunswick School Department would continue to enroll roughly 675 military
dependent students per year in grades K-12. Using the estimate of 675 students in grades K-12 compared to the projected percent of loss estimates,
Planning Decisions can provide estimated future military dependent enrollment. (See Table III-2). In addition, the two scenarios of potential military
dependent enrollment are supplied by Planning Decisions for the grade groups, K-5, 6-8, and 9-12 in the grade group Sections of this report. These
potential enrollment scenarios should provide the Brunswick School Department with reasonable estimates of future enrollment in Brunswick during the
decommissioning process.
Table III-2 - Estimated Decline of the Military Dependent Population
NASB Closing Scenario 1
School Year
K-12 Enrollment of Military
% Loss Estimate
Dependent Students
2006-07*
0%
690
2007-08
10%
608
2008-09
50%
338
2009-10
85%
101
2010-11
90%
68
2011-12
95%
34
2012-13
100%
0
2013-14 to 2016-17
100%
0
Source: Planning Decisions estimated of out-migration of military dependents.

K-12 Enrollment of Military
% Loss Estimate
Dependent Students
0%
690
0%
675
10%
608
40%
405
60%
270
80%
135
95%
34
100%
0
Page 23
B.
New Brunswick Student In-Migration
With the loss of military personnel from the Brunswick area, comes an in-migration of new residents from other areas. According to recent
estimates, there are roughly 750 units of single-family housing in Brunswick and Topsham, and another 1,600 units currently occupied by military
personnel and their families around the Brunswick area. In addition, housing from civilian employees who choose to move away from the region may
also become available to new home buyers and renters. This turnover in the existing housing stock will cause a significant fluctuation in the school-aged
population over the next ten years. However, as discussed previously, the extent of the change in the school-aged population and the timing of the change
in population will be largely impacted by when the military personnel are relocated and when and if their families decide to leave.
NOTE:
While the scope and timing of the transition of people moving into and out of Brunswick is difficult to estimate, Planning Decisions
does believe over the next ten years following the closure of NASB, school enrollment will rebound to be similar to levels projected
by the 2006-07 best fit model based on historical enrollment trends in Brunswick. Therefore, Planning Decisions believes longterm planning of school facilities in Brunswick should be made based on Planning Decisions 2006-07 best fit model verse an
estimate of enrollment losses from the NASB decommissioning.
However, Planning Decisions will provide the Brunswick School Department with two scenarios of new student in-migration from turnover of
the existing housing stock in the area to be used with the loss estimates of military dependent students, or NASB Closing Scenario 1 and NASB Closing
Scenario 2. These estimates are based on military dependent losses and Planning Decisions assumptions of how the new student in-migration would occur.
For the first few years, the estimate was based on about half of the students lost will be replaced immediately in the year they are lost, then the model
begins to increase the in-migration until it comes inline with the total loss of military students. For example under Scenario 1, in 2007-08 10% of military
students will be lost, while 5% of new students will be gained, and by 2012-13 when 100% of military dependents are lost, Brunswick should experience
90% increase in new student in-migration. (See Table III-3).
Table III-4 shows all three K-12 enrollment scenarios for the Brunswick School Department. These projections, while an imperfect measure of
future enrollment in Brunswick, should provide the School Department with reasonable estimates of potential enrollment scenarios. In addition, in Section
IX of this report Planning Decisions will supply the enrollment in NASB Closing Scenario 1 and NASB Closing Scenario 2 within ranges of plus and
minus 10% to account for fluctuations in trends and potential increases in in-migration of new students not currently anticipated.
While these projections should provide the School Department with reasonable estimates of change, Planning Decisions does strongly
suggest that the Brunswick School Department keep a close eye on future year-to-year enrollment trends over the next five to ten years. In
addition, the Department should strongly consider reevaluating enrollment trends on a year-to-year basis as the timing of military personnel
leaving the NASB becomes clearer, and the patterns of housing stock turn over from the military personnel leaving develop.
Page 24
Table III-3 - Estimate of Increase from New Residents Moving into Military Housing (Both Private and Military Owned)
School
Year
2006-07*
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17

K-12 Enrollment of
% In-Migration Estimate
New Students
0%
690
5%
34
25%
169
40%
270
60%
405
80%
540
90%
608
95%
641
100%
675
100%
675
100%
675

K-12 Enrollment of
% In-Migration Estimate
New Students
0%
690
0%
0
5%
34
20%
135
30%
203
40%
270
60%
405
80%
540
90%
608
95%
641
100%
675
Source: Planning Decisions in-migration of new resident students in Brunswick.
Page 25
Table III-4 - Historical and Projected Enrollment, 1996-97 to 2016-17

(Faster Out-Migration of Military &
Faster In-Migration of New Residents)
No Change - 2006-07 Best Fit Model

School
Year
All
Non-M ilitary
Students
(K-12)
#
M ilitary
(K-12)
#
Total
Non-M ilitary
(K-12)
M ilitary
(K-12)
In-M igration
New Residents Total

(Slower Out-Migration of Military &
Slower In-Migration of New Residents)
Non-M ilitary
(K-12)
M ilitary
(K-12)
In-M igration
New Residents Total
1996-97
3,128
2,463 78.7%
665
21.3%
3,128
2,463
78.7%
665
21.3%
3,128
2,463
78.7%
665
21.3%
3,128
1997-98
3,147
2,476 78.7%
671
21.3%
3,147
2,476
78.7%
671
21.3%
3,147
2,476
78.7%
671
21.3%
3,147
1998-99
3,180
2,540 79.9%
640
20.1%
3,180
2,540
79.9%
640
20.1%
3,180
2,540
79.9%
640
20.1%
3,180
1999-00
3,122
2,526 80.9%
596
19.1%
3,122
2,526
80.9%
596
19.1%
3,122
2,526
80.9%
596
19.1%
3,122
2000-01
3,094
2,499 80.8%
595
19.2%
3,094
2,499
80.8%
595
19.2%
3,094
2,499
80.8%
595
19.2%
3,094
2001-02
2,993
2,341 78.2%
652
21.8%
2,993
2,341
78.2%
652
21.8%
2,993
2,341
78.2%
652
21.8%
2,993
2002-03
3,040
2,397 78.8%
643
21.2%
3,040
2,397
78.8%
643
21.2%
3,040
2,397
78.8%
643
21.2%
3,040
2003-04
3,155
2,498 79.2%
657
20.8%
3,155
2,498
79.2%
657
20.8%
3,155
2,498
79.2%
657
20.8%
3,155
2004-05
3,159
2,461 77.9%
698
22.1%
3,159
2,461
77.9%
698
22.1%
3,159
2,461
77.9%
698
22.1%
3,159
2005-06
3,158
2,494 79.0%
664
21.0%
3,158
2,494
79.0%
664
21.0%
3,158
2,494
79.0%
664
21.0%
3,158
2006-07*
3,125
2,435 77.9%
690
22.1%
3,125
2,435
77.9%
690
22.1%
3,125
2,435
77.9%
690
22.1%
3,125
2007-08
3,092
2,412 78.1%
675
21.9%
3,087
2,412
79.0%
608
19.9%
34
1.1%
3,053
2,412
78.1%
675
21.9%
0.0%
3,087
2008-09
3,052
2,372 77.8%
675
22.2%
3,047
2,372
82.4%
338
11.7% 1 69
5.9%
2,878
2,372
78.7%
608
20.2%
34
1.1%
3,013
2009-10
2,996
2,316 77.4%
675
22.6%
2,991
2,316
86.2%
101
3.8%
270
10.0%
2,687
2,316
81.1%
405
14.2% 1 35
4.7%
2,856
2010-11
2,975
2,295 77.3%
675
22.7%
2,970
2,295
82.9%
68
2.4%
405
14.6%
2,768
2,295
82.9%
270
9.8%2
03
7.3%
2,768
2011-12
2,979
2,299 77.3%
675
22.7%
2,974
2,299
80.0%
34
1.2%
540
18.8%
2,873
2,299
85.0%
135
5.0%
270
10.0%
2,704
2012-13
2,968
2,288 77.2%
675
22.8%
2,963
2,288
79.0%
0.0%
608
21.0%
2,896
2,288
83.9%
34
1.2%
405
14.9%
2,727
2013-14
2,968
2,288 77.2%
675
22.8%
2,963
2,288
78.1%
0.0%
641
21.9%
2,929
2,288
80.9%
0.0%
540
19.1%
2,828
2014-15
2,949
2,269 77.1%
675
22.9%
2,944
2,269
77.1%
0.0%
675
22.9%
2,944
2,269
78.9%
0.0%
608
21.1%
2,877
2015-16
2,913
2,233 76.8%
675
23.2%
2,908
2,233
76.8%
0.0%
675
23.2%
2,908
2,233
77.7%
0.0%
641
22.3%
2,874
2016-17
2,932
2,252 76.9%
675
23.1%
2,927
2,252
76.9%
0.0%
675
23.1%
2,927
2,252
76.9%
0.0%
675
23.1%
2,927
Source: October 1 st Enrollment Reports, data for Military students provided by Brunswick School Department, and Planning Decisions projections.
Page 26
IV.
FIRST GRADE ENROLLMENT
A.
Historical Entering First Grade Enrollment
A review of first grade enrollment in Brunswick over the last ten years (1997-98 to 2006-07) reveals enrollment that increased slightly, on average.
During this ten-year period, first grade enrollment ranged between a low of 209 students in 2001-02, and a high of 271 students in 1998-99, with an
average enrollment of 243 students. The average first grade enrollment over the last five years (2002-03 to 2006-07), was 241 students, which was similar
to the average during the previous five years (1997-98 to 2001-02), or 244 students. (See Table IV-1 and Figure IV-2).
Table IV-1 - Relationship of Entering First Grade Class Size to Resident Births
Town of Brunswick
# of Births
1st Grade Year
1st Grade Enrollment
Ratio
1st/Births
1990-91
280
1997-98
261
0.932
1991-92
312
1998-99
271
0.869
1992-93
271
1999-00
262
0.967
1993-94
209
2000-01
219
1.048
1994-95
265
2001-02
209
0.789
1995-96
262
2002-03
252
0.962
1996-97
242
2003-04
264
1.091
1997-98
227
2004-05
227
1.000
1998-99
252
2005-06
235
0.933
1999-00
243
2006-07
228
0.938
5 Yr Avg. (91-95)
267
5 Yr Avg. (97-01)
244
0.921
5 Yr Avg. (96-00)
245
5 Yr Avg. (02-06)
241
0.985
10 Yr Avg. (91-00)
256
10 Yr Avg. (97-06)
Birth Year
(Oct. 15 - Oct. 14)
243
st
0.953
st
Sources: Births - Office of Data, Research, and Vital Statistics; Maine Department of Human Services; 1 Grade Enrollment - October 1 , Enrollment Reports. All else calculated
by Planning Decisions, Inc.
Page 27
B.
Factors Influencing Entering First Grade Class Size
The size of the first grade class is influenced by two factors: the number of births to residents of a community during the year that is six years
prior to the enrollment year; and, the level of net migration of preschool-aged children (number of preschool-aged children moving into the community
minus the number of preschool-aged children moving out of the community) during the first grade enrollment year and the year that was six years prior.
The level of preschool migration can be measured by the ratio of enrollment for the entering first grade class to the number of births to residents in the
year that was six years prior.
1.
Resident Birth Levels
Birth levels among Brunswick residents during the ten-year period (1990-91 to 1999-00), declined on average. The average number of
births over the last five years of the period, (1995-96 to 1999-00), was 245 births, which is lower than the average for the first five years of the
period (1990-91 to 1994-95), or 267 births. The decline in resident births between 1995-96 and 1999-00 has placed downward pressure on
entering first grade class sizes over the last five years. (See Table IV-1 and Figure IV-1).
2.
Net Preschool Migration
In the first five years of the last decade, (1997-98 to 2001-02), Brunswick experienced an out-migration of preschool-aged children, with
an average net migration ratio of 0.921. In the past five years, (2002-03 to 2006-07), Brunswick experienced a lower level of out-migration of
preschool-aged children, with an average net migration ratio of 0.985. Over the last five years, net preschool out-migration has declined and
placed less downward pressure on entering first grade class sizes. (See Table IV-1).
Taken together, a decline in the level of resident births combined with a decline in the level of preschool out-migration, has resulted
in entering first grade class sizes that, on average, have remained fairly stable over the last ten years.
Page 28
C.
Recent Resident Birth Trends
Between 1996-97 and 2005-06, the number of births to all residents of Brunswick, on average, remained fairly stable, while fluctuating year-toyear, averaging 236 births annually, and ranging between 219 and 260 births. The most recent five-year period (2001-02 to 2005-06) averaged 235 births,
while the previous five-year period (1996-97 to 2000-01) had a similar average of births at 237 births. However, over the last three years (2003-04 to
2005-06) the average of births to Brunswick residents was higher than the most recent five-year average, averaging 242 births. The increase in resident
births is the result of two years 2004-05 and 2005-06, experiencing unusually high level of births. In addition, while resident births have increased on
average, births have also fluctuated significantly year-to-year, causing the first grade class sizes to fluctuate year-to-year. Therefore, the Brunswick School
Department should keep an eye on year-to-year resident birth trends. Based on the last three-year trends, resident births should continue to average about
242 births annually, although year-to-year fluctuations will continue to occur. (See Table IV-2 and Figure IV-1).
Planning Decisions obtained data on the number of Brunswick residents births to military personnel. This data was compiled from information
parents provided when filing for a birth certificate. While the data was collected through 2005, the Maine Department of Human Services no longer
requires hospitals to collect the information, and no longer codes the birth data they receive to include parent occupation or employer. In addition, while
the birth data Planning Decisions uses to project school enrollment is based on October 15th through October 14 of a year, the military dependent resident
birth data is based on a calendar year. Therefore, while this is an imperfect date correlation, it will provide Planning Decisions with a reasonable estimate
of how many Brunswick resident births are military dependents.
Between 1996 and 2005, the number of births to military dependents in Brunswick has, on average, remained fairly stable. Over the ten-year period
of 1996 and 2005, births to residents of Brunswick averaged 75 births annually, ranging between 63 and 88 births. The most recent five-year period (2001
to 2005) averaged 75 births, while the previous five-year period (1996 to 2000) also averaged 75 births. However, over the last three years (2003 to 2005)
the average of births to Brunswick residents was slightly higher than the most recent five-year average, averaging 78 births. The increase in resident births
is the result of one year 2005, experiencing an unusually high level of births. In addition, while resident births have increased on average, births have
also fluctuated significantly year-to-year, causing the first grade class sizes to fluctuate year-to-year. Planning Decisions will assume when Naval Air
Station Brunswick closes, resident births should decline by about 75 births annually, or Brunswick resident births should average around 160 births
annually. This estimate does not take into consideration changes in the population due to new families moving into the housing formerly occupied
by the NASB personnel.
Page 29
Table IV-2 - Trends in Resident Births - 1996-97 to 2005-06

Town of Brunswick
Birth Year
(Oct. 15 - Oct. 14)
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04 pre
2004-05 pre
2005-06 pre
10 Yr Avg. (97-06)
5 Yr Avg. (97-01)
5 Yr Avg. (02-06)
3 Yr Avg. (04-06)
Town of Brunswick
(All Brunswick Residents)
242
227
252
243
219
220
229
219
247
260
236
237
235
242
Birth Year
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
10 Yr Avg. (96-05)
5 Yr Avg. (96-05)
5 Yr Avg. (01-05)
3 Yr Avg. (03-05)
Military Births
70
66
86
68
84
77
63
68
77
88
75
75
75
78
Source: Office of Data, Research, and Vital Statistics; Maine Department of Human Services, 2004 to 2006 births are preliminary.
Page 30
Estimated Brunswick
Resident Births without
Military Births
172
161
166
175
135
143
166
151
170
172
161
162
160
164
Figure IV-1
Page 31
D.
Projections of Entering First Grade Class Sizes
Planning Decisions 2006-07 best fit model is based on average resident birth levels in Brunswick between 2003-04 and 2005-06, and on a
continuation of an out-migration of preschool-aged children similar to the level occurring over the three years. Under the 2006-07 best fit model,
Planning Decisions projects that first grade enrollment of all Brunswick residents will experience yearly swings corresponding with swings in resident
births, with enrollment ranging between 210 and 249 students through 2016-17. In addition, Brunswick should experience an average first grade
enrollment of 226 students over the next ten years. (See Table IV-3 and Figure IV-2).
Under NASB Closing Scenario 1, Planning Decisions projections that first grade enrollment of Brunswick residents (less those military dependents
leaving plus new residents coming in) will experience yearly swings, plus declines in enrollment, with enrollment ranging between 184 and 241 students
through 2016-17.
Under NASB Closing Scenario 2, Planning Decisions projections that first grade enrollment of Brunswick residents (less those military dependents
leaving plus new residents coming in) will experience yearly swings, plus declines in enrollment, with enrollment ranging between 187 and 232 students.
Birth Year
(Oct. 15 - Oct. 14)
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04 pre
2004-05 pre
2005-06 pre
2006-07*
2007-08*
2008-09*
2009-10*
3 Yr Avg. 04-06
Table IV-3 - Projected First Grade Enrollment, 2007-08 to 2016-17

Town of Brunswick
1st Grade Enrollment
# of Births
1st Grade Year
NASB Closing
Best Fit Model
Scenario 1
219
2007-08
210
206
220
2008-09
211
192
229
2009-10
219
184
219
2010-11
210
187
247
2011-12
236
224
260
2012-13
249
241
242
2013-14
232
228
242
2014-15
232
232
242
2015-16
232
232
242
2016-17
232
232
242
10 Yr Avg. 07-16
226
216
NASB Closing
Scenario 2
210
207
203
187
205
222
216
224
228
232
213
Sources: Births 2000-2005 - Office of Data, Research, and Vital Statistics; M aine Department of Human Services, 2004 to 2006 births are preliminary. *2006-07 to 2009-10 births
estimated by Planning Decisions based on average births between 2003-04-2005-06. 1 st Grade Enrollment - Projected by Planning Decisions, Inc.
Page 32
Figure IV-2
Page 33
V.
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ENROLLMENT (K-5)
A.
2006 Best Fit Model

Table IV-1 - Historical and Projected Elementary School Enrollment (K-5)
1996-97 to 2016-17 - Town of Brunswick - 2006-07 Best Fit Model
Grade
School
Year
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
Total
(K-5)
1996-97
264
292
258
255
269
248
1,586
1997-98
285
261
259
259
271
243
1,578
1998-99
266
271
236
245
259
275
1,552
1999-00
221
262
260
238
241
242
1,464
2000-01
223
219
275
244
238
240
1,439
2001-02
250
209
214
244
224
231
1,372
2002-03
218
252
217
209
255
220
1,371
2003-04
219
264
247
235
211
269
1,445
2004-05
223
227
270
245
230
221
1,416
2005-06
223
235
209
264
234
221
1,386
2006-07*
209
228
251
207
260
244
1,399
2007-08
208
210
229
248
201
264
1,360
2008-09
216
211
210
226
241
204
1,308
2009-10
207
219
211
208
220
245
1,310
2010-11
233
210
220
209
202
223
1,297
2011-12
245
236
210
217
203
205
1,316
2012-13
228
249
237
208
211
206
1,339
2013-14
228
232
250
234
202
214
1,360
2014-15
228
232
232
246
228
205
1,371
2015-16
228
232
232
229
240
231
1,392
2016-17
228
232
232
229
223
243
1,387
The elementary level in Brunswick consists of Kindergarten to the

fifth grade. This section provides the Brunswick School Department
with an analysis of historical enrollment trends a set of enrollment
projections which does not include the impact of Naval Air Station
Brunswick being decommissioned. (See Table V-1 and Figure V-1).
Historical Enrollment Trends:
<
At the Kindergarten through fifth grade level, enrollment of

Brunswick students declined from 1,586 students in 1996-97
reaching 1,464 students by 1999-00. Following 1999-00,
enrollment in Brunswick declined further, to range between 1,371
and 1,445 students through 2006-07.
2006-07 Best Fit Model Projections:

<
Under the 2006-07 best fit model, Planning Decisions projects

that K-5 enrollment of Brunswick students will decline from the
current enrollment of 1,399 students, ranging between 1,297 and
1,392 students through 2016-17.
st
Source: 1996-97 to 2006-07 - historical enrollment, October 1 Enrollment Reports; all other years
- projected by Planning Decisions, Inc.
Page 34
B. 2006-07 NASB Closing Models

Table V-2 - Historical and Projected Elementary School Enrollment (K-5)
1996-97 to 2016-17 - Brunswick Military Students and New Resident Students
School
Year
No Change-Best Fit M odel

Trad.
M ilitary
Resident
Total
M ilitary
In-M igr.
New Res.
Total
M ilitary
In-M igr
New Res.
Total
1996-97
1,196
390
1,586
390
1,586
390
1,586
1997-98
1,184
394
1,578
394
1,578
394
1,578
1998-99
1,177
375
1,552
375
1,552
375
1,552
1999-00
1,114
350
1,464
350
1,464
350
1,464
2000-01
1,090
349
1,439
349
1,439
349
1,439
2001-02
992
380
1,372
380
1,372
380
1,372
2002-03
995
376
1,371
376
1,371
376
1,371
2003-04
1,060
385
1,445
385
1,445
385
1,445
2004-05
1,011
405
1,416
405
1,416
405
1,416
2005-06
997
389
1,386
389
1,386
389
1,386
2006-07*
983
416
1,399
416
1,399
416
1,399
2007-08
960
400
1,360
360
20
1,340
400
1,360
2008-09
908
400
1,308
200
100
1,208
360
20
1,288
2009-10
910
400
1,310
60
160
1,130
240
80
1,230
2010-11
897
400
1,297
40
240
1,177
160
120
1,177
2011-12
916
400
1,316
20
320
1,256
80
160
1,156
2012-13
939
400
1,339
360
1,299
20
240
1,199
2013-14
960
400
1,360
380
1,340
320
1,280
2014-15
971
400
1,371
400
1,371
360
1,331
2015-16
992
400
1,392
400
1,392
380
1,372
2016-17
987
400
1,387
400
1,387
400
1,387
This section should provide Brunswick with reasonable estimates of

future military enrollment changes and additional new resident students
in vacated military housing. However, enrollment may change
significantly if the decommissioning time line of the Naval Air Station
Brunswick changes. (See Table V-2).
<
Grades K-5 enrollment of traditional Brunswick students declined

from 1,196 students in 1996-97 reaching 1,090 students in 200001. Following 2000-01, enrollment in Brunswick declined further
to range between 983 and 1,060 students through 2006-07.
<
Grades K-5 enrollment of military students since 1996-97 ranged

NASB Closing Scenario 1:

<
Under the 2006-07 NASB Scenario 1 model, total K-5

enrollment will decline from the current enrollment of 1,399
enrollment will increase to reach 1,340 students by 2013-14.
Following 2013-14 enrollment will increase further to range
between 1,371 and 1,392 students through 2016-17.

<
Under 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 2 model, total K-5

enrollment will increase yearly to reach 1,387 students by 2016-17.
Note: Trad. = traditional residents. New Res. = new residents from in-migration of children into
vacated military housing. Source: 1996-97 to 2006-07 - historical enrollment, October 1 st Enrollment
Reports; all other years - projected by Planning Decisions, Inc.
Page 35
Figure V-1
Page 36
VI.
MIDDLE SCHOOL ENROLLMENT (6-8)
A.
Table VI-1 - Historical and Projected Middle School Enrollment (6-8)

1996-97 to 2016-17 - All Brunswick Resident Students - 2006-07 Best Fit Model
Grade
School
Year
6th
7th
8th
Total
(6-8)
1996-97
242
249
238
729
1997-98
242
234
230
706
1998-99
232
241
247
720
1999-00
259
235
237
731
2000-01
242
261
229
732
2001-02
247
249
266
762
2002-03
228
242
233
703
2003-04
252
240
244
736
2004-05
259
263
252
774
2005-06
235
257
269
761
2006-07*
230
237
247
714
2007-08
249
230
235
714
2008-09
270
249
227
746
2009-10
209
270
247
726
2010-11
250
209
267
726
2011-12
228
250
207
685
2012-13
210
228
247
685
2013-14
211
209
226
646
2014-15
219
210
207
636
2015-16
210
219
208
637
2016-17
236
209
217
662
The middle school level in Brunswick consists of the sixth through

the eighth grade. This section provides the Brunswick School
Department with an analysis of historical enrollment trends and
enrollment projections of all Brunswick resident students, and does
not take into account the Naval Air Station Brunswick being
decommissioned. (See Table VI-1 and Figure VI-1).
<
At the sixth to eighth grade level, since 1996-97 enrollment of

Brunswick students fluctuated year-to-year, and ranged between
703 and 774 students through 2006-07.

<

that 6-8 enrollment of Brunswick students will remain similar to
the current enrollment of 714 students, ranging between 685 and
746 students through 2012-13. Following 2012-13, enrollment
will decline to range between 636 and 662 students through 201617.
st
Source: 1996-97 to 2006-07 - historical enrollment, October 1 Enrollment Reports; all other years
- projected by Planning Decisions, Inc.
Page 37
B.
2006-07 NASB Closing Models

future military enrollment and additional new resident students in
However, enrollment may change
No Change - Best Fit M odel NASB Closing Scenario 1
NASB Closing Scenario 2 vacated military housing.
School
significantly if the decommissioning time line of Naval Air Station
Trad.
In-M igr.
In-M igr
Year
M ilitary To tal M ilitary
Total M ilitary
Total Brunswick changes. (See Table VI-2 and Figure VI-1).
Resident
New Res.
New Res.
Table VI-2 - Historical and Projected Middle School Enrollment (6-8)
1996-97
575
154
729
154
729
154
729
1997-98
552
154
706
154
706
154
706
1998-99
572
148
720
148
720
148
720
1999-00
595
136
731
136
731
136
731
2000-01
596
136
732
136
732
136
732
2001-02
611
151
762
151
762
151
762
2002-03
555
148
703
148
703
148
703
2003-04
585
151
736
151
736
151
736
2004-05
614
160
774
160
774
160
774
2005-06
621
140
761
140
761
140
761
2006-07*
574
140
714
140
714
140
714
2007-08
574
140
714
126
707
140
714
2008-09
606
140
746
70
35
711
126
739
2009-10
586
140
726
21
56
663
84
28
698
2010-11
586
140
726
14
84
684
56
42
684
2011-12
545
140
685
112
664
28
56
629
2012-13
545
140
685
126
671
84
636
2013-14
506
140
646
133
639
112
618
2014-15
496
140
636
140
636
126
622
2015-16
497
140
637
140
637
133
630
2016-17
522
140
662
140
662
140
662

<
Grades 6-8 enrollment of traditional Brunswick students since

1996-97 ranged between 552 and 621 students through 2006-07.
<
Grades 6-8 enrollment of military students since 1996-97 ranged


<
Under the 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 1 model, 6-8

enrollment will decline from the current enrollment of 714
students, to range between 664 and 711 students through 2012-13.
Following 2012-13, enrollment will decline further to range

<

enrollment will decline from the current enrollment of 714
students, to reach 684 students by 2010-11. Following 2010-11,
enrollment will decline further to range between 618 and 662
st
Source: 1996-97 to 2006-07 - historical enrollment, October 1 Enrollment Reports; all other years projected by Planning Decisions, Inc.
Page 38
Figure VI-1
Page 39
VII. HIGH SCHOOL ENROLLMENT (9-12)

A.
Brunswick Resident Enrollment
Table VII-1 - Historical and Projected High School Enrollment (9-12)

1996-97 to 2016-17 - Town of Brunswick - 2006-07 Best Fit Model
Grand
Grade
School
Total
9-12
Total
Year
(9-12) Spec Ed
9th
10th
11th
12th
9-12
1996-97
246
210
185
172
813
6
819
1997-98
282
219
197
165
863
5
868
1998-99
254
264
206
184
908
24
932
1999-00
251
245
236
195
927
32
959
2000-01
254
240
217
212
923
34
957
2001-02
228
222
222
187
859
85
944
2002-03
287
243
224
212
966
29
995
2003-04
267
273
224
210
974
0
974
2004-05
275
239
247
208
969
0
969
2005-06
282
266
230
233
1,011
0
1,011
2006-07
294
275
240
225
1,034
0
1,034
2007-08
275
278
254
222
1,029
0
1,029
2008-09
261
260
257
235
1,013
0
1,013
2009-10
253
247
240
237
977
0
977
2010-11
274
239
228
222
963
0
963
2011-12
297
260
221
211
989
0
989
2012-13
230
281
240
204
955
0
955
2013-14
275
218
259
221
973
0
973
2014-15
251
260
201
240
952
0
952
2015-16
231
237
240
186
894
0
894
2016-17
232
218
219
222
891
0
891
The high school level in Brunswick includes the ninth through twelfth
grade, and students in these grades attend the Brunswick High
School. (See Table VII-1 and Figure VII-1).
<
Between 1996-97 and 2006-07, overall enrollment at the high

school, including Non-Mainstreamed Special Education students,
increased from 819 students in 1996-97 to reach 1,034 students
by 2006-07.

<

that 9-12 enrollment of Brunswick students will decline from the
current enrollment of 1,034 students, to reach 891 students by
2016-17.
Source: 1996-97 to 2006-07 - actual enrollment, October 1 st Enrollment Reports; all other years projected by Planning Decisions, Inc.
Page 40

School
Year
No Change - Best Fit M odel NASB Closing Scenario 1

Trad.
M ilitary To tal
Resident
M ilitary
In-M igr.
New Res.
Total
M ilitary
In-M igr
New Res.
Total
1996-97
698
121
819
121
819
121
819
1997-98
745
123
868
123
868
123
868
1998-99
815
117
932
117
932
117
932
1999-00
849
110
959
110
959
110
959
2000-01
847
110
957
110
957
110
957
2001-02
823
121
944
121
944
121
944
2002-03
876
119
995
119
995
119
995
2003-04
853
121
974
121
974
121
974
2004-05
836
133
969
133
969
133
969
2005-06
876
135
1,011
135
1,011
135
1,011
2006-07*
900
134
1,034
134
1,034
134
1,034
2007-08
894
135
1,029
122
1,023
135
1,029
2008-09
878
135
1,013
68
34
980
122
1,007
2009-10
842
135
977
20
54
916
81
27
950
2010-11
828
135
963
14
81
923
54
41
923
2011-12
854
135
989
108
969
27
54
935
2012-13
820
135
955
122
942
81
908
2013-14
838
135
973
128
966
108
946
2014-15
817
135
952
135
952
122
939
2015-16
759
135
894
135
894
128
887
2016-17
756
135
891
135
891
135
891

future military enrollment and additional new resident students in
vacated military housing.
However, enrollment may change
significantly if the decommissioning time line of Naval Air Station
Brunswick changes. (See Table VII-2 and Figure VII-1).
<
Grades 9-12 enrollment of traditional Brunswick students

increased from 698 students in 1996-97 to reach 815 students in
1998-99. Following 1998-99, enrollment remained stable, ranging
between 823 and 876 students through 2005-06. Following 200506, enrollment increased to reach 900 students by 2006-07.
<
Grades 9-12 enrollment of military students since 1996-97 ranged

between 110 and 123 students through 2003-04. Following 200304, enrollment of military dependent students in Brunswick
increased to range between 133 and 135 students through 2006-07.

<

students through 2014-15. Following 2014-15, enrollment will
decline further to reach 891 students by 2016-17.

<

st
Source: 1996-97 to 2006-07 - historical enrollment, October 1 Enrollment Reports; all other years projected by Planning Decisions, Inc.
Page 41
Figure VII-1
Page 42
B.
Durham Choice Tuition Student Enrollment

1996-97 to 2016-17 - All Durham Residents - 2006-07 Best Fit Model
Durham Choice Tuition in
All Durham Residents
Brunswick
School
Grade
Grade
Year
Total
Total
9-12
9th
10th 11th
12h
9th
10th 11th 12th 9-12
1996-97
36
41
41
35
153
23
23
16
12
74
1997-98
48
38
36
39
161
26
25
19
15
85
1998-99
58
48
40
33
179
35
24
24
21
104
1999-00
57
62
48
36
203
38
34
27
23
122
2000-01
54
61
63
43
221
44
39
43
22
148
2001-02
63
61
69
52
245
51
47
41
37
176
2002-03
52
56
54
47
209
44
50
42
30
166
2003-04
60
54
57
51
222
54
46
50
36
186
2004-05
55
65
50
54
224
48
58
41
46
193
2005-06
55
55
59
46
215
48
45
53
35
181
2006-07
46
55
48
59
208
43
47
41
52
183
2007-08
51
47
50
46
194
46
40
43
37
166
2008-09
46
53
43
47
189
41
45
37
38
161
2009-10
41
47
47
41
176
36
41
41
33
151
2010-11
45
42
43
45
175
41
36
37
36
150
2011-12
41
47
38
41
167
36
40
33
33
142
2012-13
42
42
42
36
162
37
36
36
29
138
2013-14
44
43
38
40
165
40
37
33
32
142
2014-15
36
46
38
36
156
32
39
33
29
133
2015-16
42
37
41
37
157
37
31
36
30
134
2016-17
55
43
33
39
170
50
37
29
32
148
The high school level in Brunswick also includes enrollment of

students from the Town of Durham. Durham students have a choice
(See Table VII-3 and Figure VII-2).
<
All Durham Residents: Between 1996-97 and 2006-07, overall

enrollment of all Durham students, increased from 153 students in
1996-97 to reach 245 students by 2001-02. Following 2001-02,
enrollment declined to range between 208 and 224 students
through 2006-07.
<
Durham Choice Tuition in Brunswick: Durham choice tuition

enrollment at the Brunswick high school, increased from 74
students in 1996-97 to reach 148 students by 2000-01. Following
2000-01, enrollment increased further to range between 166 and
193 students through 2006-07.

<
All Durham Residents: Under the 2006-07 best fit model,

Planning Decisions projects that 9-12 enrollment of all Durham
students will decline from the current enrollment of 208 students,
to reach 175 students by 2010-11. Following 2010-11, enrollment
2016-17.
<
Durham Choice Tuition in Brunswick: Under the 2006-07 best

fit model, Planning Decisions projects that 9-12 enrollment of
Durham choice tuition students will decline from the current
enrollment of 183 students, to reach 150 students by 2010-11.
Following 2010-11, enrollment will decline further to range
st
Source: 1996-97 to 2006-07 - actual enrollment, October 1 Enrollment Reports; all other years projected by Planning Decisions, Inc.
Page 43
Figure VII-2
Page 44
C.
Enrollment of All Students at the Brunswick High School

1.
2006 Best Fit Model

1996-97 to 2016-17 - All Students at the Brunswick High School - 2006-07 Best Fit Model
Durham Choice
Brunswick 9-12 Enrollment
School
Total All Students
Tuition Students
Year
(9-12)
Non-Military
Military
(9-12)
1996-97
698
121
74
893
1997-98
745
123
85
953
1998-99
815
117
104
1,036
1999-00
849
110
122
1,081
2000-01
847
110
148
1,105
2001-02
823
121
176
1,120
2002-03
876
119
166
1,161
2003-04
853
121
186
1,160
2004-05
836
133
193
1,162
2005-06
876
135
181
1,192
2006-07
900
134
183
1,217
2007-08
894
135
166
1,195
2008-09
878
135
161
1,174
2009-10
842
135
151
1,128
2010-11
828
135
150
1,113
2011-12
854
135
142
1,131
2012-13
820
135
138
1,093
2013-14
838
135
141
1,114
2014-15
817
135
133
1,085
2015-16
759
135
134
1,028
2016-17
756
135
146
1,037
Table VII-4 contains the figures for the 2006 best fit model
for Brunswick traditional students, Brunswick Military
dependent students and Durham choice tuition students. (See
Figure VII-2).
<
Between 1996-97 and 2006-07, enrollment of all students

at the high school, increased from 893 students in 199697 to reach 1,217 students by 2006-07.

<
Under the 2006-07 best fit model, Planning Decisions

projects that 9-12 enrollment of all students at the
Brunswick High School will decline slightly from the
current enrollment of 1,217 students, to range between
1,113 and 1,195 students through 2011-12. Following
2011-12, enrollment will decline slightly more to range
between 1,028 and 1,114 students through 2016-17.
Source: 1996-97 to 2006-07 - actual enrollment, October 1 st Enrollment Reports; all other years - projected
Page 45
2.
2006-07 NASB Closing Models

1996-97 to 2016-17 - All Students at the Brunswick High School - Alternative Models
School
Year
Trad.
M ilitary
Resident
In-M igr.
In-M igr.
Durham
Trad.
Durham
New
Total
M ilitary
New
Total
Tuition
Resident
Tuition
Resident
Resident
1996-97
698
121
74
893
698
121
74
893
1997-98
745
123
85
953
745
123
85
953
1998-99
815
117
104
1,036
815
117
104
1,036
1999-00
849
110
122
1,081
849
110
122
1,081
2000-01
847
110
148
1,105
847
110
148
1,105
2001-02
823
121
176
1,120
823
121
176
1,120
2002-03
876
119
166
1,161
876
119
166
1,161
2003-04
853
121
186
1,160
853
121
186
1,160
2004-05
836
133
193
1,162
836
133
193
1,162
2005-06
876
135
181
1,192
876
135
181
1,192
2006-07*
900
134
183
1,217
900
134
183
1,217
2007-08
894
122
166
1,189
894
135
166
1,195
2008-09
878
68
34
161
1,141
878
122
161
1,168
2009-10
842
20
54
151
1,067
842
81
27
151
1,101
2010-11
828
14
81
150
1,073
828
54
41
150
1,073
2011-12
854
108
142
1,111
854
27
54
142
1,077
2012-13
820
122
138
1,080
820
81
138
1,046
2013-14
838
128
141
1,107
838
108
141
1,087
2014-15
817
135
133
1,085
817
122
133
1,072
2015-16
759
135
134
1,028
759
128
134
1,021
2016-17
756
135
146
1,037
756
135
146
1,037
This section should provide Brunswick with reasonable

estimates of all students attending the Brunswick High
School. However, enrollment may change significantly if
the decommissioning time line of Naval Air Station
Brunswick changes. (See Table VII-5 and Figure VII-3).
<
Under the 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 1 model,

all 9-12 enrollment will decline from the current
enrollment of 1,217 students, to reach 1,141 students by
2008-09. Following 2008-09, enrollment will decline
further to range between 1,028 and 1,111 students
through 2016-17.

<
Under the 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 2 model,

all 9-12 enrollment will decline from the current
enrollment of 1,217 students, to reach 1,101 students by
2009-10. Following 2009-10, enrollment will decline
further to range between 1,021 and 1,087 students
through 2016-17.
st
Source: 1996-97 to 2006-07 - historical enrollment, October 1 Enrollment Reports; all other years - projected
Page 46
Figure VII-3
Page 47
VIII. ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, POPULATION TRENDS, AND RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT

AND THEIR RELATION TO SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
Future school enrollment in Brunswick will be impacted by past, current, and future trends in population, housing development, and economic conditions.
With the growth of a population and development of new homes comes the potential for new students in the school system. Because school enrollment
is impacted by residential development, Planning Decisions analyzed development trends in Brunswick. This information is then used to test whether
the best fit cohort survival enrollment projections adequately reflect potential future economic and residential development trends.
A.
Economic Trends
1.
Where People Work
Census commuting data provides a snapshot of where people living in Brunswick worked in 1990 and 2000. (See Table VIII-1). Based
on the 2000 Census, there were 10,067 Brunswick resident workers in 2000 (people who reside in Brunswick and either work in Brunswick or
commute to work in another community), a loss of 271 workers or decline of 2.6% over the decade. In 1990, 78.1% of Brunswicks workers
commuted to communities in the Brunswick Labor Market Area (LMA), and in 2000 that figure declined slightly by 73.1% of Brunswicks
total workers commuting to the LMA. The Portland-South Portland-Biddeford Metropolitan Area (MA) was the second largest recipient of
Brunswick resident workers with 15.8% in 1990 to 17.4% in 2000. In addition, all other areas received 9.5% of Brunswicks commuters in 2000,
compared to 6.1% in 1990. This shift is indicative of Brunswicks residents looking outside of the communities in their LMA, the Brunswick
LMA, for work.
In 2000, the Brunswick LMA (which includes the communities of Brunswick, Harpswell, Dresden, Westport, Wiscasset, Arrowsic, Bath,
Bowdoin, Bowdoinham, Georgetown, Perkins unorganized territory, Phippsburg, Richmond, Topsham, West Bath, and Woolwich) was the largest
recipient of Brunswick workers with 73.1% of all Brunswicks resident workers. Within the LMA, the Town of Brunswick received the largest
number of Brunswicks commuters with 53.6%, while the City of Bath was the second largest recipient with 11.4% of commuters. Interestingly,
from 1990 to 2000 there was a slight shift within the LMA. The percentage of Brunswick resident workers commuting to Brunswick, declined
from 61.9% in 1990 to 53.6% in 2000, while both the City of Bath and the Town of Topsham increased their percentage share.
In 2000, the Portland-South Portland-Biddeford MA (which includes the communities of Alfred, Arundel, Baldwin, Biddeford, Buxton,
Cape Elizabeth, Casco, Cornish, Cumberland, Dayton, Falmouth, Freeport, Frye Island, Brunswick, Gray, Hiram, Hollis, Kennebunk,
Kennebunkport, Limerick, Limington, Long Island, Lyman, Naples, New Gloucester, North Yarmouth, Old Orchard Beach, Parsonsfield, Porter,
Portland, Pownal, Raymond, Saco, Scarborough, Sebago, South Portland, Standish, Waterboro, Westbrook, Windham, and Yarmouth) was the
second largest recipient of Brunswick workers with 17.4% of all Brunswicks resident workers. Within the MA, the City of Portland received
the largest number of Brunswicks commuters with 6.3%, while the Town of Freeport was the second largest recipient with 4.7% of commuters.
Page 48
Based on this analysis, the economic health of Brunswick is strongly tied to Brunswick LMA and more loosely tied to the PortlandSouth Portland-Biddeford MA.
Table VIII-1 - 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census Commuting Data
Town of Brunswick
1990
Total Resident Workers
2000
10,338
% of Total Resident
Workers
10,067
% of Total Resident
Workers
Brunswick LMA
8,075
78.1%
7,363
73.1%
Bath
1,116
10.8%
1,150
11.4%
Brunswick
6,397
61.9%
5,391
53.6%
Topsham
356
3.4%
451
4.5%
1,631
15.8%
1,751
17.4%
Freeport
459
4.4%
474
4.7%
Portland
732
7.1%
638
6.3%
South Portland
151
1.5%
222
2.2%
632
6.1%
953
9.5%
Place of Work
Portland-South Portland-Biddeford MA
All Other Areas

Source: 1990 and 2000 U.S. Commuting Data
Page 49
2.
Regional Employment Levels
Labor Market data for the newly defined Brunswick LMA was not available for years prior to 2004, which does not allow for accurate
comparison of Labor Market trends, while data for the Portland-South Portland-Biddeford MA was reassessed for prior years. However, data
for the old defined Bath-Brunswick LMA was available through 2003. Although the communities in the new LMA are slightly different from
the old LMA, the data should be accurate enough for comparison purposes.
Table VIII-2 presents trends in wage and salary employment in the Labor Market Areas that strongly influences Brunswick. The BathBrunswick LMA, which strongly influences the economic health of the Town of Brunswick experienced a 0.9% decline in the number of jobs
from 32,230 jobs in 1999 to 31,950 jobs in 2003, losing 280 jobs. The LMA experienced a decline in employment while the State of Maine
experienced a 3.3% increase in the number of jobs over the same period. The Portland-South Portland-Biddeford MA experienced a 3.7%
increase in the number of jobs from 185,775 jobs in 2001 to 192,700 jobs in 2005, adding 6,925 jobs. The MA experienced a rate of growth that
was more than the growth in the State of Maine, which experienced a 0.6% increase in the number of jobs.
Table VIII-2 - Trends in Total Non-Farm Wage and Salary Employment 1999-2003 and 2001-2005
Labor Market Area Influencing Brunswick vs. State of Maine
Labor Market Area
1999
2003
# change
% change
Bath-Brunswick LMA
32,230
31,950
(280)
-0.9%
Maine Total
587,260
606,830
19,570
3.3%
2001
2005
# change
% change
Portland-South Portland-Biddeford MA
185,775
192,700
6,925
3.7%
Maine Total
608,100
611,700
3,600
0.6%
Labor Market Area
Source: Maine Department of Labor, Division of Economic Analysis and Research.
Page 50
In 2002, the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Southern Maine completed employment forecasts for Maine
through 2025. The data takes into account the brief 2001-2002 recession, but does not forecast additional recessions. The model forecasts more
rapid in-migration to Maine than earlier forecasts, and uses the 2000 Census and the preliminary 2001 population estimates. Table VII-3 presents
employment forecast for Cumberland County and the State.
In 2005, Cumberland Countys total employment (including wage and salary employment, self employment, and farm employment) is
estimated to be 225,175 workers. Total employment in Cumberland County is forecast to grow by 29,342 jobs to a level of 254,517 by the year
2025, an increase of 13%. This increase in employment is similar to that forecast for the State as a whole, or 13.3%, and accounts for about 27%
of the total growth in the State of Maine during the period.
Table VIII-3 - Total Employment Forecasts 2005, 2015, & 2025

Cumberland County vs. State of Maine
Change
Area
2005
2015
2025
2005-15
2015-25
2005-25
Total Employment
Cumberland County
225,175
242,286
254,517
17,111
7.6%
12,231
5.0%
29,342
13.0%
State
816,842
880,826
925,879
63,984
7.8%
45,053
5.1%
109,037
13.3%
Source: University of Southern M aine, Center for Business and Economic Research, 2002 Long-Range Economic Forecasts.
Note: Employment data includes wage and salary employment, self-employment and farm employment.
Taken together, the employment trend data indicates the job growth over the last five years in the Labor Market Areas which influence
Brunswick, has been at both lower levels (Bath-Brunswick LMA) and higher levels (Portland-South Portland-Biddeford MA) compared to those
experienced Statewide. In addition, it appears employment in and around Brunswick will mostly likely continue to grow as the State of Maine
grows. However, if something occurs which has an impact on the employment growth in the State of Maine, it will likely have a similar impact
on the employment of Brunswick residents. Or, in the case of the closing of Naval Air Station Brunswick, there will be a significant impact on
employment in the area.
Page 51
B.
Population Trends
Table VIII-4 presents the population trends for the community of Brunswick in comparison to Cumberland County and the State of Maine. In
1990, Brunswicks total population was 20,906 people. Total population in Brunswick increased by 266 people, or by 1.3%, to reach a total of 21,172
people in the year 2000. In addition in July of 2005, total population in Brunswick was estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau to have increase by another
648 people to reach 21,820 people. Cumberland County also experienced an increase in population but by 9.2%, a much faster rate in comparison to the
Town of Brunswick. In addition, Brunswick experienced an increase in total population which was slower than the State as a whole, which increased
by 3.8%.
The population of Brunswick who are under 18 years of age was 4,845 in 1990. By 2000, that figure increased only slightly by 0.5%, for a gain
of 26 children. Looking at Cumberland County, the population of people under 18 years of age increased by 8.8%, while the State of Maine actually
declined by 2.5%. Therefore, Brunswicks under 18 population remained fairly stable while Cumberland Countys increased, and the State of Maines
under 18 population declined.
The population of Brunswick who are between 5 and 17 years of age was 3,306 in 1990. By 2000, that figure increased by 7.6% to 3,558, or a
gain of 252 children. It is important to note that while the 5 to 17 population in Brunswick increased by 252 children, the total of the under 18 population
increased by only 26 children, meaning while the school-aged population in Brunswick increased, the population of infants to 4-year-olds declined. In
addition, this decline in the infant to 4-year-old population will have an impact on future enrollment in Brunswick. Looking at Cumberland County, the
population of people 5 to 17 years of age increased by 16.2%, while the State of Maine only increased by 3.2%. Therefore, Brunswicks ages 5 to 17
population increased at a faster rate than the State of Maine and a slower rate than Cumberland County.
When we look at the population of women who are 18 to 44 years of age, or the population of fertile females, in 1990 there were 4,690 fertile
females in Brunswick. By 2000, that figure declined by 7.2% to 4,351, for a loss of 339 fertile females. Looking at Cumberland County, the population
of fertile females declined by 4.1%, and the State of Maine declined by 8.1%. Therefore, Brunswicks fertile female population declined at a faster rate
than Cumberland County and a slower rate than the State of Maines fertile female population.
In addition, we looked at the population of women who are generally considered past their fertile age, or women who are 45 years of age or older.
In the 45 years of age or older age group, Brunswick experienced a significant increase in this population group compared to other population groups,
experiencing a gain of 21.1%. Between 1990 and 2000, the population of women who are 45 years of age or older increased from 3,531 women in 1990,
to reach 4,276 women in 2000, this was a gain of 745 women over the ten-year period. The increase in this population group would help to explain the
decline in the infant to 4-year-old population while the school-age population increased. When looking at Cumberland County, the population of women
who are 45 years of age or also increased significantly, by 25.2%, or gaining 10,739 women during the period. In addition, the State of Maine experienced
a significant increase (22.7%) during the period, gaining 49,479 females who where 45 years of age or older.
Page 52
The implication for this data in the Town of Brunswick is that the growth of the female population, appears to be from women who have matured
past the generally accepted age of fertility. However, while the population of females who are 45 years of age or older increased, Brunswicks total female
population in 2000 consisted of more fertile females than females who were 45 years of age or older. In addition, the fertile female population declined
over the ten-year period. Therefore, if the growth in the female population continues to be from women who are past the generally accepted age of fertility,
the result of this aging female population will be that fewer children will be born, children who would have attended schools in Brunswick in the future.
Table VIII-4 - Population Trends, 1990 - 2000
Town of Brunswick vs. Cumberland County & State of Maine
Area
1990
2000
Brunswick
20,906
Cumberland County
1990-00
#
21,172
266
1.3%
243,135
265,612
22,477
9.2%
1,227,928
1,274,923
46,995
3.8%
Brunswick
4,845
4,871
26
0.5%
Cumberland County
56,928
61,962
5,034
8.8%
State
309,002
301,238
(7,764)
-2.5%
Brunswick
3,306
3,558
252
7.6%
Cumberland County
40,021
46,519
6,498
16.2%
State
223,280
230,512
7,232
3.2%
Total Population
State
Population Age Under 18
Population 5 to 17 Years of Age
Fertile Female Population (18 to 44 years of age)

Brunswick
4,690
4,351
(339)
-7.2%
Cumberland County
55,930
53,660
(2,270)
-4.1%
State
262,072
240,816
(21,256)
-8.1%
Brunswick
3,531
4,276
745
21.1%
Cumberland County
42,696
53,435
10,739
25.2%
State
217,644
267,123
49,479
22.7%
Female Population (45+ years of age)
Source: 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census.
Page 53
C.
Residential Development Trends
Trends in housing development are influenced by national and regional economic trends and local land-use policies. Two sets of data are used
to examine residential development trends in Brunswick, the U.S. Census and local new housing unit data.
1.
U.S. Census Data
In 1980, according to the U.S. Census, there was a total of 6,083 year-round housing units in Brunswick. (See Table VIII-5). By 1990,
total year-round housing units had increased to 8,012 units, an increase of 31.7% (1,929 units) in the decade, or an average of 193 new units per
year. The percentage increase in Brunswick during this period was greater than the increase for Cumberland County (20.1%), and for the State
of Maine (16.7%).
In 1990, according to the U.S. Census, there was a total of 8,012 year-round housing units in Brunswick. By 2000, total year-round housing
units had increased to 8,500 units, an increase of 6.1% (488 units) in the decade, or an average of 49 new units per year. The percentage increase
in Brunswick during this period was less than the increase for Cumberland County (12.2%), and the State of Maine (10.3%).
In addition, over the twenty-year period between 1980 and 2000, total year-round housing units in Brunswick had increased by 39.7%
(2,417 units), or an average of 121 new units per year. The percentage increase in Brunswick during this period was more than the increase for
Cumberland County (34.7%), and the State of Maine (28.8%).
This data indicates that while Brunswick experienced growth in the number of new year-round housing units built between 1980
and 1990 that was at a faster rate than experienced in Cumberland County and the State of Maine, more recently between 1990 and 2000,
the rate of growth in Brunswick has been slower than Cumberland County and the State.
Table VIII-5 - Year-Round Housing Unit Trends - 1980-2000
Town of Brunswick vs. Cumberland County and the State of Maine
# of Year Round
Housing Units
Change between
1980-1990
Change between
1990-2000
Change between
1980-2000
1980
1990
2000
# of units
% Change
Avg. # of
Units
Added
Annually
Brunswick
6,083
8,012
8,500
1,929
31.7%
193
488
6.1%
49
2,417
39.7%
121
Cumberland County
82,981
99,632
111,750
16,651
20.1%
1,665
12,118
12.2%
1,212
28,769
34.7%
1,438
State of Maine
427,377 498,839 550,361
71,462
16.7%
7,146
51,522
10.3%
5,152
122,984
28.8%
6,149
Area
# of units
% Change
Avg. # of
Units
Added
Annually
# of units
% Change
Avg. # of
Units
Added
Annually
Source: 1980, 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census
Page 54
2.
Local Housing Data
Data on annual new housing units added since 1997 is used to analyze residential development trends. For this analysis, housing unit data
is based on the number of building permits issued annually by the Town of Brunswick for new housing units as reported by the Towns Planning
and Codes Departments for a calendar year.
Between 1997 and 2006, the Town of Brunswick added, on average, 81 new housing units annually. Over the first five years of the period
(1997 to 2001), Brunswick averaged 66 new housing units added annually, while over the most recent five-year period (2002 to 2006), Brunswick
experienced a significant increase in residential development, averaging 96 new housing units added annually. However, over the last three years,
residential development has declined slightly, averaging 87 new housing units added annually. (See Table VIII-6 and Figure VIII-1.)
With its availability of land for development and close proximity to job centers, Brunswick continues to be an attractive community for
purposes of residential development. In addition, the Town continues to make efforts to attract and retain commercial development and expand
local job opportunities. It is likely that residential development in Brunswick will continue over the next three to five years with levels similar
those experienced recently, or at a level of about 85 to 95 new housing units being added annually. Lower levels of development would occur
if the regional economy took a downturn or policies to restrict residential development levels were implemented by the Town. However, the
closing of Naval Air Station Brunswick may change the outlook of future residential development in the Town of Brunswick.
At this time the exact outcome of the existing housing owned or occupied by military personnel is uncertain. The roughly 570 military
units in Brunswick (about 73 more are located in Topsham) on the NASB property are owned and maintained by Government Military Housing
(GMH) and are currently occupied by military personnel. GMH does not anticipate renting their units out to non-military personnel until the base
closes in 2011 and the units are sold. Once those units are sold and a plan is developed for their use and the use of NASB property, the potential
impact on school enrollment should be further assessed. Since a number of the GMH-owned housing units on the base have recently been
remodeled and are in excellent condition, these units, which would likely enter the market once the base has been closed, will be attractive to new
home buyers or renters. However, whether the units will become rental units, owner occupied units, affordable housing units, or be developed
into some other use is uncertain at this point. Therefore, at this time too many variables exist for a detailed assessment of the impact on school
enrollment from these military units.
Regardless of the GMH-owned properties, other housing units in the area which are not GMH-owned but are occupied by military personnel
will become available for civilians to rent or purchase. The addition of these units into the housing market will likely cause a short-term decline
in the demand for new housing unit development. However, while new housing unit development declines, the addition of these new housing
units into the available housing stock will continue to generate new people coming into the town to replace those military personnel lost. Who
will chose to move into the currently military personnel-owned properties, and whether those new renters or buyers will have school-aged children
is uncertain. However, if the current military personnel-owned properties are reasonable priced, and are in family friendly neighborhoods, then
the likelihood of young families moving into these available housing units is high. However, whether the families will have fewer children or
Page 55
more children than the military personnel who are leaving remains to be seen and should be evaluated as the process of the NASB closing occurs.
For example, a developer may choose to build significantly more housing on the base once it is sold, or perhaps homes vacated by military
personnel will be re-inhabited at such a fast rate there will be no impact on new home development, or perhaps the economy will significantly slow
the sale of new homes in the area. Therefore, many different potential scenarios exist which would impact school enrollment. In addition, while
NASB is scheduled to close in 2011, the closing may be delayed if the military personnel are transferred at a slower rate than initially anticipated
or the hanger in Florida being built to accommodate the planes being transferred in not completed on time for the current scheduled deployment.
Therefore, Planning Decisions strongly recommends that the Brunswick School Department do the following.
1.
Keep a close eye on school enrollment trends, local housing unit development, and housing stock turnover trends during
the closing of NASB.
2.
Keep track of the home addresses of both military dependent students leaving the school system and the newly enrolled
resident students in Brunswick to determine if those military dependent students are being replaced by new civilian
students, and/or if more or less new civilian students are replacing those military students lost.
3.
Continually re-evaluate school enrollment trends each year to determine how the closing of NASB is impacting school
enrollment in Brunswick.
In addition, since the future for Brunswick regarding the redevelopment of NASB still remains uncertain, Planning Decisions believes
providing school enrollment trends within ranges of plus and minus 10% will be warranted to account for fluctuations in enrollment that is likely
to occur. These ranges are found in Section IX of this report.
However, Planning Decisions will look at the current impact of new residential development on school enrollment trends to see if new
residential development is impacting school enrollment. If a correlation between residential development and school enrollment is not currently
found, Planning Decisions will not change school enrollment projections for Brunswick based on residential development trends. Regardless,
since there are many potential scenarios that may develop over the next five years from the closing of NASB, Planning Decisions strongly
recommends that the Brunswick School Department closely monitor future residential growth within the Town and continues to monitor
school enrollment trends on a yearly basis.
Page 56
Table VIII-6 - New Housing Units, 1997-2006

Town of Brunswick
Year
Permits for Homes
3-year moving average
1997
58
1998
63
1999
61
61
2000
62
62
2001
85
69
2002
110
86
2003
107
101
2004
95
104
2005
82
95
2006
84
87
Last 10 Yr Avg. 97-06
81
First 5 Yr Avg. 97-01
66
96
87
Sources: 1997-2006 Based on building Permit data from Town of Brunswick, Planning & Codes Departments.
Page 57
Figure VIII-1
Page 58
D.
Relationship of Residential Development to School Enrollment
Planning Decisions in-house cohort survival does not directly incorporate the level of residential development and turnover in the existing housing
stock when projecting school enrollment. Rather, the survival ratios used within cohort models reflect the historical impact of net migration (which is
influenced by residential development and turnover) on school enrollment. If future residential development levels, turnover levels, or their relationship
to net migration is significantly different from levels experienced in the past ten years, then cohort survival models may overstate or understate future
enrollment. For school planning purposes, it is important to understand the degree to which residential development activity will impact school enrollment.
Specifically, Planning Decisions looked at how past residential development has impacted the in-migration of students.
1.
Net Preschool Migration
To show the relationship between residential development and preschool net migration, Planning Decisions examined the ratios between
net preschool migration reflected in the first grade enrollment and the number of new homes built in Brunswick between the year of the first grade
enrollment year and the six years prior. (See Table VIII-7).
On average, for each of the six-year periods examined, 510 new housing units were built in Brunswick. The average net out-migration
of preschool-aged children for each of the first grade enrollment years was 4 children, or a ratio of -0.008 children per unit, or a loss of almost 1
child per 100 units.
Over the last three years between 2004-05 and 2006-07, on average, for each of the six-year periods examined, 541 new homes were built
in Brunswick, a higher level compared to what occurred over the last five-year period. However, the average net out-migration of preschool-aged
children for each of the first grade enrollment years was higher than the last five-year average, or 11 children, for a ratio of 0.020 children per unit,
or a loss of about 2 children per 100 units.
In addition, for the current school year, there was a net out-migration of 15 preschool-aged children. Applying the 15 preschool outmigrants to the 563 new homes added results in a ratio of -0.027 (a loss of about 3 children per 100 units), a rate similar to what occurred over
the last three years.
In order for residential development to impact preschool net migration, a significant increase in residential development would have to
occur and/or preschool migration trends would have to change to a yearly average in-migration of preschool-aged children verses the out-migration
occurring over the last five-year period. Based on this analysis, a significant increase in residential development which is above and beyond
the recent three-year rate of growth is unlikely to occur. In addition, nothing suggests preschool migration will change to an in-migration
in the near future. Therefore, because Planning Decisions best fit model adequately reflects the potential impacts on preschool net
migration caused by residential development, a second model was not created. However, Planning Decisions does strongly suggest the
Brunswick School Department about keeping a close eye on preschool migration trends to determine the future impact on migration from
the closure of NASB.
Page 59
Table VIII-7 - Births, First Grade Enrollment, Net Preschool Migration and Housing Units Added
Town of Brunswick
# of Births
1st Grade
Class Year
1st Grade
Enrollment
Net Migration
Year
Housing Units
Ratio
Migr/HU
1995-96
262
2002-03
252
(10)
1997-02
439
(0.023)
1996-97
242
2003-04
264
22
1998-03
488
0.045
1997-98
227
2004-05
227
1999-04
520
0.000
1998-99
252
2005-06
235
(17)
2000-05
541
(0.031)
1999-00
243
2006-07
228
(15)
2001-06
563
(0.027)
5 Yr Avg. (96-00)
245
5 Yr Avg. (02-06)
241
(4)
Avg. (97-06)
510
(0.008)
3 Yr Avg. (98-00)
241
3 Yr Avg. (04-06)
230
(11)
Avg. (99-06)
541
(0.020)
Birth Year
(Oct. 15-Oct. 14)
st
Sources: Births - Office of Data, Research, and Vital Statistics; Maine Department of Human Services. 1 Grade Enrollment - October 1st, Resident Enrollment Reports. Residential
Development- Town of Brunswick, Planning & Code Enforcement Department. All else calculated by Planning Decisions.
Page 60
2.
Net Elementary (Grades 1-6) Migration
Regarding the relationship between residential development levels and migration of students at the elementary grades (first to sixth),
Planning Decisions examined the ratio of annual net migration of students at each of the grade levels and annual new homes built in Brunswick
during the year. (See Table VIII-8).
In the ten years between 1997 and 2006, Brunswick experienced an average net in-migration of elementary students. The average ratio
of in-migration of elementary students (1-6) to new housing units was -0.244, or, on average, over the last ten years every 100 homes built in
Brunswick resulted in the out-migration of about 24 elementary students in one year.
Over the last five years (2002 to 2006), Brunswick experienced an average net in-migration of elementary students, with an average inmigration ratio of 0.006. Or, on average, over the last five years every 100 housing units built in Brunswick resulted in the in-migration of almost
1 elementary student in a year which was a different level of migration compared with the ten-year average of migration.
However, over the last three years (2004 to 2006), Brunswick experienced a slight average out-migration of elementary students, with an
average out-migration ratio of -0.008. Or, on average, over the last three years every 100 housing units built in Brunswick resulted in the outmigration of almost 1 elementary student in a year.
In addition, looking at recent trends, the migration of elementary students does not appear to be related to development levels. The level
of residential development and the in-migration of students fluctuated year-to-year, with increases in development not corresponding with increases
in elementary in-migration and declines in development do not necessarily correspond with declines in elementary in-migration. For example,
some years experienced high levels of development but a low level of in-migration or an out-migration of elementary students. In 2002, 110 new
housing units were added and Brunswick experienced an in-migration of 7 students, the only time an in-migration occurred over the last ten-year
period, and 2003 had 107 new housing units added and an out-migration of 2 students occurred. While in 2005, 82 housing units were added and
Brunswick experienced a high level of out-migration of 30 students. Then, the following year 84 new housing units were added and an inmigration of 29 students occurred. The variations in the level of net migration occurring in grades 1-6 in Brunswick indicates elementary migration
is not consistently influenced by overall residential development occurring in the Town.
Because of the year-to-year variations in net elementary migration, the ten-year ratio is likely the most reliable for predicting future levels
of migration. Planning Decisions best fit model takes into account historical migration trends, adequately reflecting the levels of elementary
in-grade migration. Therefore, because Planning Decisions best fit model adequately reflects the potential impacts on elementary net
migration caused by residential development, a second model was not created. However, Planning Decisions does strongly suggest the
Brunswick School Department about keeping a close eye on elementary migration trends to determine the future impact on migration
from the closure of NASB.
Page 61
Table VIII-8 - Net Elementary (1-6) Migration and New Housing Units
Town of Brunswick
Enrollment Years
Net Migration
Year
# of New Housing Units
Ratio
Migr/HU
1996-97 to 1997-98
(48)
1997
58
(0.828)
1997-98 to 1998-99
(46)
1998
63
(0.730)
1998-99 to 1999-00
(46)
1999
61
(0.754)
1999-00 to 2000-01
(4)
2000
62
(0.065)
2000-01 to 2001-02
(56)
2001
85
(0.659)
2001-02 to 2002-03
2002
110
0.064
2002-03 to 2003-04
(2)
2003
107
(0.019)
2003-04 to 2004-05
(1)
2004
95
(0.011)
2004-05 to 2005-06
(30)
2005
82
(0.366)
2005-06 to 2006-07
29
2006
84
0.345
10 Yr Avg. (97-06)
(20)
10 Yr Avg. (97-06)
81
(0.244)
5 Yr Avg. (02-06)
5 Yr Avg. (02-06)
96
0.006
3 Yr Avg. (04-06)
(1)
3 Yr Avg. (04-06)
87
(0.008)
Sources: Net Migration - Calculated by Planning Decisions, Inc. based on October 1, Resident Enrollment Reports. Residential Development: Town of Brunswick Code Enforcement
and Planning Department. All else calculated by Planning Decisions, Inc.
Page 62
E.
Summary and Recommendations Regarding Economic Conditions, Population Trends, and Residential Development
Based on recent trends, Brunswick most likely will not experience an increase in new housing unit development over the next 3-5 years
significantly above growth estimated by Planning Decisions, or 85 to 95 housing units added annually, or an average of about 90 housing units added
annually. However, development will likely continue to fluctuate year-to-year with some years experiencing higher levels of development and other years
experiencing lower levels of development. When looking at the estimated level of growth, or 90 housing units added annually, Planning Decisions best
fit cohort model adequately reflects levels of preschool migration caused from residential development, while it appears residential development is having
an inconsistent impact on elementary migration trends.
Regardless, Planning Decisions strongly suggests that the Brunswick School Department do the following:
<
Keep a close eye on school enrollment trends, local housing unit development, and housing stock turnover trends during the closing of
NASB.
<
Keep track of the home addresses of both military dependent students leaving the school system and the newly enrolled resident students
in Brunswick to determine if those military dependent students are being replaced by new civilian students, and/or if more new civilian
students are replacing those military students lost.
<
Continually re-evaluate school enrollment trends each year to determine how the closing of NASB is impacting school enrollment in
Brunswick.
Finally, since development in Brunswick may be impacted by the closing of NASB in the distant future (beyond the three to five-year estimate
provided in this report), Planning Decisions recommends the Brunswick School Department take into consideration school capacity needs may need to
be revisited again based on the impacts which occur from the closing.
Therefore, the 2006-07 best fit enrollment projections adequately reflect recent trends of preschool and elementary (1-6) net-migration
occurring in Brunswick. Since the future for Brunswick regarding the redevelopment of NASB still remains uncertain, Planning Decisions believes
providing school enrollment trends within ranges of plus and minus 10% will be warranted to account for fluctuations that are likely to occur. The
projections are presented in Section IX within ranges of plus and minus 10% for grades K-12.
Page 63
IX.
SUMMARY OF ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS FOR SCHOOL PLANNING PURPOSES
To provide reasonable cushions for use in the planning of school facilities, Planning Decisions has summarized school enrollment projections for the 200607 best fit model, the 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario #1 model, and the 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario #2 model by grade group and presented
the projections within ranges of plus and minus 10% for the PreK-12 grade groups. In addition, 9-12 best fit projections of Durham choice tuition
students are presented in ranges of plus and minus 5%. (See Tables IX-1 to IX-7). The report Appendix contains grade by grade historical and projected
enrollment.
A.
2006-07 Best Fit Projections of All Brunswick Residents

Table-IX-1 - School Enrollment Projection Ranges - 2007-08 to 2016-17 (PreK-12)
All Brunswick Residents - 2006-07 Best Fit Model
PreK
Grades (K-5)
Grades (6-8)
Grades (9-12)
Grades (PreK-12)
School
Year
-10%
Proj.
+10%
-10%
Proj.
+10%
-10%
Proj.
+10%
-10%
Proj.
+10%
-Range
Proj.
+Range
2007-08
194
216
238
1,224
1,360
1,496
643
714
785
926
1,029
1,132
2,987
3,319
3,651
2008-09
186
207
228
1,177
1,308
1,439
671
746
821
912
1,013
1,114
2,947
3,274
3,601
2009-10
210
233
256
1,179
1,310
1,441
653
726
799
879
977
1,075
2,921
3,246
3,571
2010-11
221
245
270
1,167
1,297
1,427
653
726
799
867
963
1,059
2,908
3,231
3,554
2011-12
205
228
251
1,184
1,316
1,448
617
685
754
890
989
1,088
2,896
3,218
3,540
2012-13
205
228
251
1,205
1,339
1,473
617
685
754
860
955
1,051
2,886
3,207
3,528
2013-14
205
228
251
1,224
1,360
1,496
581
646
711
876
973
1,070
2,886
3,207
3,528
2014-15
205
228
251
1,234
1,371
1,508
572
636
700
857
952
1,047
2,868
3,187
3,506
2015-16
205
228
251
1,253
1,392
1,531
573
637
701
805
894
983
2,836
3,151
3,466
2016-17
205
228
251
1,248
1,387
1,526
596
662
728
802
891
980
2,851
3,168
3,485
Sources: Projected by Planning Decisions, Inc., April 2007.
Page 64
B.
2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario #1 Projections of All Brunswick Residents

Table IX-2 - School Enrollment Projection Ranges - 2007-08 to 2016-17 (PreK-12)
All Brunswick Residents - 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario #1
PreK
Grades (K-5)
Grades (6-8)
Grades (9-12)
Grades (PreK-12)
School
Year
-10%
Proj.
+10%
-10%
Proj.
+10%
-10%
Proj.
+10%
-10%
Proj.
+10%
-Range
Proj.
+Range
2007-08
163
181
199
1,206
1,340
1,474
636
707
778
921
1,023
1,125
2,926
3,251
3,576
2008-09
166
184
202
1,087
1,208
1,329
640
711
782
882
980
1,078
2,775
3,083
3,391
2009-10
199
221
243
1,017
1,130
1,243
597
663
729
824
916
1,008
2,637
2,930
3,223
2010-11
214
238
262
1,059
1,177
1,295
616
684
752
831
923
1,015
2,720
3,022
3,324
2011-12
203
225
248
1,130
1,256
1,382
598
664
730
872
969
1,066
2,803
3,114
3,425
2012-13
206
229
252
1,169
1,299
1,429
604
671
738
848
942
1,036
2,827
3,141
3,455
2013-14
206
229
252
1,206
1,340
1,474
575
639
703
869
966
1,063
2,857
3,174
3,491
2014-15
206
229
252
1,234
1,371
1,508
572
636
700
857
952
1,047
2,869
3,188
3,507
2015-16
206
229
252
1,253
1,392
1,531
573
637
701
805
894
983
2,837
3,152
3,467
2016-17
206
229
252
1,248
1,387
1,526
596
662
728
802
891
980
2,852
3,169
3,486
Page 65
C.
2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario #2 Projections of All Brunswick Residents

All Brunswick Residents - 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario #2
PreK
Grades (K-5)
Grades (6-8)
Grades (9-12)
Grades (PreK-12)
School
Year
-10%
Proj.
+10%
-10%
Proj.
+10%
-10%
Proj.
+10%
-10%
Proj.
+10%
-Range
Proj.
+Range
2007-08
180
200
220
1,224
1,360
1,496
643
714
785
926
1,029
1,132
2,973
3,303
3,633
2008-09
166
184
202
1,159
1,288
1,417
665
739
813
906
1,007
1,108
2,896
3,218
3,540
2009-10
182
202
222
1,107
1,230
1,353
628
698
768
855
950
1,045
2,772
3,080
3,388
2010-11
197
219
241
1,059
1,177
1,295
616
684
752
831
923
1,015
2,703
3,003
3,303
2011-12
192
213
234
1,040
1,156
1,272
566
629
692
842
935
1,029
2,640
2,933
3,226
2012-13
199
221
243
1,079
1,199
1,319
572
636
700
817
908
999
2,668
2,964
3,260
2013-14
203
225
248
1,152
1,280
1,408
556
618
680
851
946
1,041
2,762
3,069
3,376
2014-15
206
229
252
1,198
1,331
1,464
560
622
684
845
939
1,033
2,809
3,121
3,433
2015-16
206
229
252
1,235
1,372
1,509
567
630
693
798
887
976
2,806
3,118
3,430
2016-17
206
229
252
1,248
1,387
1,526
596
662
728
802
891
980
2,852
3,169
3,486
Page 66
D.
2006-07 Best Fit Model for Durham Choice Tuition Enrollment

Table IX-4 - School Enrollment Projection Ranges - 2007-08 to 2016-17 (9-12)
Durham Choice Tuition Students - 2006-07 Best Fit Model
Grades (9-12)
School
Year
-5%
Proj.
+5%
2007-08
158
166
174
2008-09
153
161
169
2009-10
143
151
159
2010-11
143
150
158
2011-12
135
142
149
2012-13
131
138
145
2013-14
134
141
148
2014-15
126
133
140
2015-16
127
134
141
2016-17
139
146
153
Page 67
E.
2006-07 Best Fit Projections of All Brunswick Residents and Durham Choice Tuition Students
IX-5 - School Enrollment Projection Ranges - 2007-08 to 2016-17 (K-12)
All Brunswick Residents and Durham Choice Tuition Students - 2006-07 Best Fit Model
PreK
Grades (K-5)
Grades (6-8)
Grades (9-12)
School
Year
-10%
Proj.
+10%
-10%
Proj.
+10%
-10%
Proj.
2007-08
194
216
238
1,224
1,360
1,496
643
714
785
1,084
1,195
1,306
2008-09
186
207
228
1,177
1,308
1,439
671
746
821
1,065
1,174
2009-10
210
233
256
1,179
1,310
1,441
653
726
799
1,022
2010-11
221
245
270
1,167
1,297
1,427
653
726
799
2011-12
205
228
251
1,184
1,316
1,448
617
685
2012-13
205
228
251
1,205
1,339
1,473
617
2013-14
205
228
251
1,224
1,360
1,496
2014-15
205
228
251
1,234
1,371
2015-16
205
228
251
1,253
2016-17
205
228
251
1,248
+10% -Range Proj. +Range -Range
Proj.
+Range
3,145
3,485
3,825
1,283
3,100
3,435
3,770
1,128
1,234
3,064
3,397
3,730
1,010
1,113
1,217
3,051
3,381
3,712
754
1,025
1,131
1,237
3,031
3,360
3,689
685
754
991
1,093
1,196
3,018
3,345
3,673
581
646
711
1,010
1,114
1,218
3,021
3,348
3,675
1,508
572
636
700
983
1,085
1,187
2,995
3,320
3,646
1,392
1,531
573
637
701
932
1,028
1,124
2,963
3,285
3,607
1,387
1,526
596
662
728
941
1,037
1,133
2,990
3,314
3,638
Page 68
Grades (PreK-12)
F.
2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 1 Projections of All Brunswick Residents and Durham Choice Tuition Students
All Brunswick Residents & Durham Choice Tuition Students - 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario #1
PreK
Grades (K-5)
Grades (6-8)
Grades (9-12)
School
Year
-10%
Proj.
+10%
-10%
Proj.
+10%
-10%
Proj.
2007-08
163
181
199
1,206
1,340
1,474
636
707
778
1,079
1,189
174
2008-09
166
184
202
1,087
1,208
1,329
640
711
782
1,035
1,141
2009-10
199
221
243
1,017
1,130
1,243
597
663
729
967
2010-11
214
238
262
1,059
1,177
1,295
616
684
752
2011-12
203
225
248
1,130
1,256
1,382
598
664
2012-13
206
229
252
1,169
1,299
1,429
604
2013-14
206
229
252
1,206
1,340
1,474
2014-15
206
229
252
1,234
1,371
2015-16
206
229
252
1,253
2016-17
206
229
252
1,248
Grades (PreK-12)
Proj.
+Range
3,084
3,417
2,625
169
2,928
3,244
2,482
1,067
159
2,780
3,081
2,374
974
1,073
158
2,863
3,172
2,467
730
1,007
1,111
149
2,938
3,256
2,509
671
738
979
1,080
145
2,958
3,279
2,564
575
639
703
1,003
1,107
148
2,990
3,315
2,577
1,508
572
636
700
983
1,085
140
2,995
3,321
2,600
1,392
1,531
573
637
701
932
1,028
141
2,964
3,286
2,625
1,387
1,526
596
662
728
941
1,037
153
2,991
3,315
2,659
Page 69
G.
2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 1 Projections of All Brunswick Residents and Durham Choice Tuition Students
All Brunswick Residents & Durham Choice Tuition Students - 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario #2
PreK
Grades (K-5)
Grades (6-8)
Grades (9-12)
School
Year
-10%
Proj.
+10%
-10%
Proj.
+10%
-10%
Proj.
2007-08
180
200
220
1,224
1,360
1,496
643
714
785
1,084
1,195
1,306
2008-09
166
184
202
1,159
1,288
1,417
665
739
813
1,059
1,168
2009-10
182
202
222
1,107
1,230
1,353
628
698
768
998
2010-11
197
219
241
1,059
1,177
1,295
616
684
752
2011-12
192
213
234
1,040
1,156
1,272
566
629
2012-13
199
221
243
1,079
1,199
1,319
572
2013-14
203
225
248
1,152
1,280
1,408
2014-15
206
229
252
1,198
1,331
2015-16
206
229
252
1,235
2016-17
206
229
252
1,248
Proj.
+Range
3,131
3,469
3,807
1,277
3,049
3,379
3,709
1,101
1,204
2,915
3,231
3,547
974
1,073
1,173
2,846
3,153
3,461
692
977
1,077
1,178
2,775
3,075
3,376
636
700
948
1,046
1,144
2,798
3,102
3,406
556
618
680
985
1,087
1,189
2,896
3,210
3,524
1,464
560
622
684
971
1,072
1,173
2,935
3,254
3,573
1,372
1,509
567
630
693
925
1,021
1,117
2,933
3,252
3,571
1,387
1,526
596
662
728
941
1,037
1,133
2,991
3,315
3,639
Page 70
Grades (PreK-12)
APPENDIX - GRADE BY GRADE HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENT AND GRADE GROUP
SUMMARIES
Page 71

PDI Enrollment Study April 2007

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SCHOOL ENROLLMENT

Introduction & Methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Review of Previous Enrollment Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Enrollment of Brunswick Resident Students. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Historical Entering First Grade Enrollment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Elementary School Enrollment (K-5). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

Impact of NASB Closing on School Enrollment in Brunswick.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

First Grade Enrollment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Previous Enrollment Projections Grade-by-Grade Comparison. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

2006-07 Best Fit Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

Middle School Enrollment (6-8). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

2006-07 Best Fit Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

High School Enrollment (9-12). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Brunswick Resident Enrollment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Summary of Enrollment Projections for School Planning Purposes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

2006-07 Best Fit Projections of All Brunswick Residents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

Brunswick Enrollment Report FINAL 2006-07 07-801 4-3-2007.wpd - April 2007

Brunswick Enrollment Report FINAL 2006-07 07-801 4-3-2007.wpd - April 2007

A review of residential development trends in Brunswick suggests the following:

Brunswick Enrollment Report FINAL 2006-07 07-801 4-3-2007.wpd - April 2007

Factors Influencing Entering Class Size (First Grade):

Brunswick Enrollment Report FINAL 2006-07 07-801 4-3-2007.wpd - April 2007

Net Preschool Migration Trends:

Brunswick Enrollment Report FINAL 2006-07 07-801 4-3-2007.wpd - April 2007

2006-07 Best Fit Projections for All Brunswick Residents

Sources: *2006-07 - current enrollment based on October 1 Enrollment Reports, all

First Grade Class Size:

Grade Group Enrollment:

Brunswick Enrollment Report FINAL 2006-07 07-801 4-3-2007.wpd - April 2007

2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 1 Model for All Brunswick Residents

T Under the 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 1 model, Planning Decisions

Sources: *2006-07 - current enrollment based on October 1 Enrollment Reports, all

First Grade Class Size:

Grade Group Enrollment:

Brunswick Enrollment Report FINAL 2006-07 07-801 4-3-2007.wpd - April 2007

2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 2 Model for All Brunswick Residents

T Under the 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 2 model, Planning Decisions

Sources: *2006-07 - current enrollment based on October 1 st Enrollment Reports, all

First Grade Class Size:

Grade Group Enrollment:

Brunswick Enrollment Report FINAL 2006-07 07-801 4-3-2007.wpd - April 2007

2006-07 Best Fit Model for Durham Choice Tuition Students:

Grade Group Enrollment:

Brunswick Enrollment Report FINAL 2006-07 07-801 4-3-2007.wpd - April 2007

TECHNICAL NOTES FROM THE ENROLLMENT STUDY:

Grade-to-Grade Net Migration Ratios:

Changes in Resident Student Counts:

Brunswick Enrollment Report FINAL 2006-07 07-801 4-3-2007.wpd - April 2007

Resident Enrollment Projections Ranges:

Brunswick Enrollment Report FINAL 2006-07 07-801 4-3-2007.wpd - April 2007

INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY

Brunswick Enrollment Report FINAL 2006-07 07-801 4-3-2007.wpd - April 2007

REVIEW OF PREVIOUS ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Previous Enrollment Projections Grade-by-Grade Comparison

Brunswick Enrollment Report FINAL 2006-07 07-801 4-3-2007.wpd - April 2007

Grade Group Projections Comparison

Brunswick Enrollment Report FINAL 2006-07 07-801 4-3-2007.wpd - April 2007

Projections of Entering First Grade Class Sizes

Patterns regarding children entering public versus private schools

Brunswick Enrollment Report FINAL 2006-07 07-801 4-3-2007.wpd - April 2007

Grade-To-Grade Survival Ratios

Brunswick Enrollment Report FINAL 2006-07 07-801 4-3-2007.wpd - April 2007

Table II-3 - Grade-to-Grade Survival Ratios Between 2005-06 and 2006-07

Ratios used by the