ThailandEconomicandStrategyOutlook2015

December30,2014

Cloudslifting,sunnyskiesahead

Jul14

Jan14

Jul13

Jan13

Jul12

Jan12

Jul11

Jan11

SETIndex
Close(Pts)
1,498.22
Mkt.Cap.(Btm)
13,861,164.77
PER(x)
17.81
PBV(x)
2.13
Div.Yield(%)
2.94

SET50Index

1,001.37
Close(Pts)
Mkt.Cap.(Btm)
9,798,422.80

15.71
PER(x)
PBV(x)
2.26

Div.Yield(%)
3.10

SET
SET50
1,700
1,500
1,300
1,100
900
700
500

KTZMICOResearchTeam
Tel.66(0)26955000
ktzmicoresearch@ktzmico.com

Worldgrowthislikelytocontinuetorecoveratdifferentspeeds
The U.S. economy surprisingly has been able to maintain its decent
expansion thus far, despite the end of the asset purchase programs.
On the other hand, the Eurozone economy remains fragile and will
continue to face difficult challenges. The same could also be said for
theJapaneseeconomy,whichhasreturnedtorecession,inlightofthe
salestaxhikeinApril.GrowthinEmergingMarketeconomiesiswidely
expectedtoslowandcommodityexportingcountriesmaysuffermore
than others due to extended periods of weak commodity prices,
especiallycrudeoil.

Thaieconomyshouldactuallyregaintractionin2015
Despite the disappointments this year, there is much evidence to
suggestthattheeconomicperformancenextyearwillgreatlyimprove.
Wereiteratethatthe2015annualbudgetistoosmallconsideringthe
currentriskstogrowth.Asupplementarybillcouldbeveryhelpfuland
we expect one to be unveiled early next year. Expected stimuli will
shoreuphouseholdincome,inturnprovidinganimpetustodomestic
consumption. The governments mega infrastructure investment will
enticeprivateinvestmentandweexpectaccelerationinthatareatoo.
The main risk to growth in our call is the sluggish expansion of Thai
exports as challenges in some sectors may not be resolved any time
soon.

SETIndexistargetedat1,750pointsinourbasecase
Inourbasecase,theSETIndexistargetedat1,750points,basedonPER
of 15.7 times (+1.0SD) and EPS growth of 17.2%, upgraded from 1,686
pointsinthepreviousestimate.Keydriversfortheindexare1)domestic
economic recovery 2) global liquidity and 3) capital flow. However,
highervolatilityisalsoexpectednextyeargiventhenormalizationofFed
policy.Otherconcernsarerenewalofemergingmarketcurrencyrisks,a
worsethanexpected Thai economy along with downward earnings
revisionsfor20142015.

Maintainoverweightonequity
Wemaintainourequityweightingat80%ofourrecommendedportfolio.
Bonds are maintained at 10% as we expect the interest rate to remain
unchanged for the year 2015E. Gold and crude oil hold 5% each for
diversified hedging. We overweight the banking and transportation
sectors.

Governmentboostedstocksareprominent
The government will play a crucial role next year on the back of
economicreformsandstimulus.Weroughlydividethatimpactintofour
categories: investment, consumption, tourism and energy reform. Our
toppicksareKBANK,SCB,CPALL,CK,AAV,andSPCG.

REFERTODISCLOSURESECTIONATTHEENDOFTHENOTESpage1of20

Globaleconomicoutlook:recoveryatdifferentspeeds

Worldgrowthislikelytocontinuetorecoveratdifferentspeeds
Afteryearsofsevereshocksthatcontinuedtoderailtherecovery,2014seemedtobeayear
withnoobviousshocks,atleastonaglobalscale.Thatbeingsaid,idiosyncraticfactorsmade
thespeedofrecoveriesofeachregiondifferent.TheU.S.economysurprisinglyhasbeenable
tomaintainitsdecentexpansionthusfar,despitetheendoftheassetpurchaseprograms.On
the other hand, the Eurozone economy remains fragile and will continue to face difficult
challenges. The same could also be said for the Japanese economy, which has returned to
recession,inlightofthesalestaxhikeinApril.Theuncertaintyhaselevated,consideringthe
fiscalchallengesandpolicyrisksahead.Meanwhile,growthinEmergingMarketeconomiesis
widelyexpectedtoslowandcommodityexportingcountriesmaysuffermorethanotherson
thebackofanextendedperiodofweakcommodityprices,especiallycrudeoil.

Figure1:Multispeedrecoverynextyear
%YoY
3.0

2.8

2.3
1.5

1.4

1.1

1.0

0.8

Eurozone

USA

Japan

2016

2015

2014

2016

2015

2014

2016

2015

2014

0.3

Source:Bloomberg,KT ZMICOResearch

Recoveriesofdifferentspeedsleadtodifferingmacroeconomicpolicies
AsthespeedsoftherecoveriesamongtheG3aredifferent,themacroeconomicpoliciesare
expected todiverge nextyear. With a firmer growthoutlook, the Fed ended its 5year asset
purchaseprogramsinOctandwillexittheultralowmonetarypolicybyhikingthepolicyrate
starting midyear 2015 according to the latest market expectation. Fragile growth in Europe
andJapanhasconvincedpolicymakersthatsupportfromtheircentralbankscontinuestobe
needed.Divergentmonetarypolicywillbethekeyinvestmentthemenextyear.

MarketvigilancefocusedontheFedsactions
TheU.S.economycontinuestoexpandatadecentpace,leadingtoasubstantialimprovement
in the labor market. Nonfarm payrolls have continued to increase by more than 200k each
month since February, pushing the unemployment rate below 6.0%, a level viewed to be
consistent with the Feds desire. As a result, the Fed began QE tapering in Jan before
completely stopping it in Oct. The economy seems to be withstanding the QE tapering very
wellandthusthefirstratehikeshouldcomebeforelong.AccordingtoasurveybyBloomberg,
themajorityofthemarketbelievesthattheFedwillfirstlyhikeitspolicyratearoundmidyear
2015.However,webelievethatitisnotonlythetimingofthefirstratehikethatmatters,how
theFedhikesitsrateisequallyimportant.TheFedhasmadeitclearthatitwillnotshrinkits
balance sheet when the time of the first rate hike comes. An enormous balance sheet may
diminishtheeffectivenessoftheratehike,asthemarketmaynottradetheFedFundsRateat
a rising rate when money supply is ample. The Fed issued a statement regarding this in
SeptemberexplaininghowotherFedinfluencedinterestrates(suchasIOERandRRP)willplay
aroleinfacilitatingtheprocess.WebelievethatthismaycomplicatetheFedscommunication
andthecentralbankwillthuslikelymakeagreaterefforttoexplainitsactions.Themounting
complexitymayamplifythemarketsvolatility,especiallyinthefirsthalfofnextyearbefore
theratehike.

REFERTODISCLOSURESECTIONATTHEENDOFTHENOTESpage2of20

ThetimingofnewECBmeasuresneedstobewatchedinEurope
ThesluggishgrowththathasgoneonforyearsseemstobecontinuingintheEurozone.The
recovery remains slow and tentative as the legacies of the crisisinadequate demand, high
debt, and unemploymentcontinue to be obstacles to robust and sustained growth. During
the period of intensifying structural reforms and fiscal challenges, an ultraloose monetary
policystanceisneededtofacilitategrowth.TheECBhasraisedthebarofitsmonetarypolicy
easingbyembarkingontheTLTROsandprivatesectorassetpurchaseprogramsthisyear.The
bankintendstoboostitsbalancesheettothelevelseeninMarch12,approximately1trillion
euromorethanthecurrentlevel.However,theabilityoftheprogramstoinducebalancesheet
expansionmaybelimitedastheattractivenessoftheTLTROsprogramisexpectedtobelow.
Sinceacommitmenttoincreaseloanstotherealsectorisaprerequisiteforcommercialbanks
applyingfortheprogram,theremaybereluctancetodosoamidstelevatedcreditrisk.Hence,
the market expects that the ECB may ease further, possibly introducing asset purchases for
governmentbonds.Thenewprogrammaybeunveiledsometimeinthefirsthalfofnextyear.

RadicalBOJeasingisexpectedtocontinue
The sales tax hike in April has officially dragged the Japanese economy into recession once
again.Thedeclineofeconomicactivitiesin3Q14followingthesharpcontractioninthesecond
quarterledtoPMAbesdecisiontocallforasnapelectioninlateDec.However,Abehasbeen
reelected, causing the market to believe that the macroeconomic policies Abe has been
pursuing,knownasAbenobics,willcontinue.Aseconomicreformsincludingthenextroundof
thesalestaxhikearelikelytogoon,economicrecoverywillremainuncertain.Thus,theBOJis
expectedtocontinueitsaggressivebalancesheetexpansionforanextendedperiod,pushing
domesticassetpricesupwardanddepreciatingtheyen.

DivergingmonetarypolicieswillcreateaneconomicenvironmentthatfavorsUSDandUSD
denominatedassets
In light of diverging monetary policies in the G3, interest rates among the worlds biggest
economiesareverylikelytoalsodiffer.Fednormalizationshouldshifttheyieldcurveupward
while the interest rates in the Eurozone and Japan will likely be pushed down near zero. A
wideninginterestgapwillcreateaneconomicenvironmentthatfavorstheUSDaswellasUSD
denominated assets. Therefore, the USD is expected to outperform next year. Note that
spillover from interest rate divergence will have a considerable impact on Thailands capital
flowsandexchangerates.

Figure2:Wideninginterestrategap

Figure3:CreatesanenvironmentthatfavorstheUSD

%
6.0

USD/
1.5

5.0

USSwap3yr

4.0

EUEONIASwap3yr

/USD
70
EUR

1.4

80
90

1.3

100

2.0

1.2

110

1.0

1.1

JPSwap3yr

3.0

JPY (RHS)

0.0

2008

2009

Source:xxx,KT ZMICO
Research

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

140

1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15

2007

130

1.0

1.0

120

Source:xxx,KT ZMICO
Research

REFERTODISCLOSURESECTIONATTHEENDOFTHENOTESpage3of20

ThaiEconomicOutlook:Cloudslifting

2014economicperformancedisappointed
2014seemstohavebeenadisappointingyearforeconomywatchers.Eventhougheconomists
were right about weak 1H14 growth, the robust 2H14 recovery scenario never materialized.
The3Q14GDPreportremainedsubdued,recordinganincreaseofjust0.4%,roughlythesame
as1H14.The4Q14GDPmayimprovefromthepreviousquarter,butnotbymuchasimplied
by the October economic indicators. Several factorslow income growth, uncertainty
regardingthefutureeconomicoutlook,structuralproblemsinsomeexportsectorscontinue
to hold back the private sectors spending. The market had high hopes for government
spending after the longawaited appointment of the new cabinet in 3Q14. However, the
centralfocusofthegovernmenthasinitiallyseemedtobeoninternalsecurity,corruption,and
socialreforms;asEnergyMinisterNarongchaiAkrasaneefamouslysuggested,thisgovernment
willputsecuritybeforeprosperity.Hence,therehasnotbeenmuchinthewayofstimulusthis
year and the disbursement of the annual budget was also slow. Therefore, government
spendingcouldnotoffermuchhelptotheoverallfeebleeconomythisyear.Inaddition,Thai
export growth, the main engine of the Thai economy in the last decade, was impeded by a
combination of weak agricultural export prices, a loss of competitiveness in the electronics
sectors,andfragileglobaldemand.

Butin2015theThaieconomyshouldactuallyregaintraction
Despitethedisappointmentsthisyear,thereismuchevidencepointingtoagreatlyimproved
economicperformancenextyear.Thedetailswillbediscussedbelow.Insummary,asinternal
securityseemstohavebeenstabilized,thegovernmentnowisexpectedtoturnitsattention
to the economy in light of the economic deterioration. We reiterate that the 2015 annual
budgetistoosmallconsideringthecurrentriskstogrowth.Asupplementarybillcouldbevery
helpfulandweexpectonetobeunveiledearlynextyear.Theexpectedstimuliwillshoreup
householdincome,inturnprovidinganimpetustodomesticconsumption.Thegovernments
mega infrastructure investment will entice private investment and we expect acceleration in
thatareatoo.ThemainrisktogrowthinourcallisthesluggishexpansionofThaiexportsas
challengesinsomesectorsmaynotberesolvedanytimesoon.However,exportsshouldpick
upsomewhatonthebackofoverallimprovementinglobaldemand.Forallthesereasons,we
believethattheThaieconomywillactuallyregaintractionin2015.

Governmentspendingwillbeexpedited,withnewstimulusalongtheway
Undoubtedly, the political protests last year had a great impact on the public sector as
protesterstriedtodisruptgovernmentactivities,leadingtoweakgovernmentspending.Even
thoughthenewlyappointedcabinettrieditsbesttoexpeditedisbursementinthesecondhalf
oftheyear,thedisbursementrateforthe2014annualbudget1endedupatonly87.0%,the
lowestinthelastdecade.However,weexpectgovernmentspendingtoimprovemoderatelyin
termsofboththebudgetscaleanddisbursement.The2015fiscalbudgethasbeenset2.0%
higherthanthepreviousyear,totaling2.58trillionbaht.Moreover,webelievethatitmaybe
toosmallconsideringthefragileeconomicgrowthandthegovernmentsroomtomaneuver.
The budget costs a deficit of only 1.9% to GDP while a deficit of 3% or 4% is common,
especially during a period of low growth. Public debt recorded at 46.5% to GDP in October,
considerablybelowthefiscaldisciplineof60%.Amoderatelevelofpublicdebtshouldallow
the government to increase its spending. A supplementary bill is very possible in this regard
andweexpectonetobeunveiledearlynextyear.Projectsincludedinthepackageshouldbe
ones that are easy to disburse like village funds, thereby effectively boosting the shortterm
economy.Historically,thereweretwosupplementarybillsin2009and2011,costing117and
100 billion baht, respectively. We expect the same scale for the upcoming one, which could
boostGDPbyaroundonepercentagepoint.

ThaifiscalyearbeginsinOctoberandendsinSeptember

REFERTODISCLOSURESECTIONATTHEENDOFTHENOTESpage4of20


Figure4:Asupplementarybillisexpectedearlynextyear
THB,bn
3,000
Supplementarybill
Budget(THB,bn)

2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source:FPO,KT ZMICOResearch

Privateconsumptionislikelytoimproveaswell
One of the biggest disappointments in 2014 was sluggish private consumption. With the
stagnationin2013,themarketexpectedconsumptiontobouncebackstrongly.Unfortunately,
a combination of weak income growth, softening loans, and the drag from automobile
spending appears to have hindered the recovery. That being said, these negative factors
should subside next year, partly thanks to expected government measures. Firstly, the
government has passed various measures to shore up household income, including tax
reductions,specialsalaryincreasesforcivilservants,andrevenuesubsidiesforfarmers.While
the effectiveness of these measures for boosting household income may be limited as the
amountofmoneytobeinjectedisseeminglyquitesmall,webelievethatthegovernmentwill
stepupitsmeasuresnextyearwhenriskstogrowthbecomeclearerandbegintoputsocial
stability at risk. Secondly, monetary conditions should be supportive as well. The Monetary
Policy Committee (MPC) has signaled its intention to keep thepolicy rate at the current low
leveltoaccommodatetherecoveryintheearlystage.Hence,thepolicyrateisprojectedtobe
keptatthecurrentlevelof2.00%throughoutnextyear.Withanimprovingeconomicoutlook,
aneasingmonetarystancewillencouragebankstoexpandtheirlendingactivities.Lastly,the
recoverythusfarthisyearactuallyhasbeenbroadbased.Nevertheless,theplungeinvehicle
sales(comparedwiththesameperiodlastyear)continuedtodragdowntheheadlinefigure.A
largechunkoffuturedemandhasbeenbroughtforwardbythefirsttimecarbuyerscheme,
resulting in this years weak sales growth. The impact from the automobile drag is likely to
dissipatenextyear,assuggestedbystabilizingcarsalesinrecentmonths.Duetothesethree
reasons,webelievethatprivateconsumptionshouldgrowfasternextyear.

Themainrisktoourcallsisconcernoverweakexports
Eventhoughthebusinesssectorhasbeenholdingbackitsinvestmentduetouncertaintyover
theeconomicoutlook,weareconfidentthattheeconomywillrecoverstrongergoingforward;
thus, the brighter economic outlook should foster business investment next year. However,
the mainconcern for our calls lies in exports. Since the Asian FinancialCrisis in the late 90s,
exportshaveneverbeenthissluggishfortwoconsecutiveyears.Thereareseveralreasonsfor
this.Thefirstistheslowdowninglobaldemand.Weaknessinriceandrubberpricesisanother.
However,themostseriousconcernisthelossofcompetitivenessinsomesectors,especially
electronics. As the life of electronic goods is typically shortlived, the absence of new
investment in recent years has led to a lack of product innovation, which has in turn
deterioratedthesectorscompetitiveness.Thestructuralproblemsareunlikelytoberesolved
soonsinceanypotentialnewinvestmentinthecaseofelectronicswilltakesometimebefore
effectivelyyieldingnewproducts.Meanwhile,globaloilpricesarelikelytoremainweaknext
year, as may other commodity prices. The value of Thai agricultural exports thereby is
expectedtobesoft.Hence,webelievethatexportgrowthnextyearislikelytobedecentat
best.Ourbasecaseenvisagesmerchandiseexportsincreasingbyarelativelysubdued4%.
REFERTODISCLOSURESECTIONATTHEENDOFTHENOTESpage5of20

Mathematically,domesticdemandwilldrivetheheadlineGDPto4.0%nextyear
To wrap up our growth outlook, we envisage that the headline GDP will improve from 0.8%
thisyearto4.0%in2015,ledbydomesticdemand.Privateconsumptionisexpectedtoexpand
by4.3%(vs.0.6%in2014),thereforeadding2.2percentagepointstotheheadlineGDP.Our
projectionsseeprivateinvestmentgrowingby8.0%(vs.1.7%).Governmentspendingisalso
forecastedtoimproveintermsofbothconsumption(5.5%vs.2.1%)andinvestment(8.5%vs.
5.2%).Exportsofgoodsandserviceswillimproveto3.7%(vs.0.5%).Nonetheless,owingto
thesurgeintheimportsofgoodsandservices(projectedtobe7.0%vs.4.2%),netexportsare
likelytocontractby7.7%(vs.14.5%).

Figure5:GDPisprojectedtoacceleratein2015
%YoY

7.1
5.3

7.8
6.3
4.6

5.1

6.5

5.0

4.0

2.9

2.5

2.2

0.8

0.1

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2.3

Source:NESDB,KT ZMICOResearch

Inflationislikelytoremainbenignamidweakoilprices
Globaloilpriceshavetumbleddrastically,triggeredbyOPECsunexpecteddecisiontomaintain
itscrudeproductionamidstthesupplyglutstemmingfromthesurgeofshaleoilproduction.
The decline in oil prices has resulted in disinflation around the world. Retail oil prices have
fallen accordingly in Thailand, albeit to a lesser extent than the crude price, leading to
widespreaddeteriorationindomesticinflation.TheConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)hasfallenfrom
2.6%inMayto1.3%inNovemberandisverylikelytodeclinefurtherinthemonthsaheadas
weassessthattheweakoilpriceswilllingernextyear.Inaddition,whilewecallforastronger
recoveryofdomesticdemand,theconsiderableslackintheeconomyasreflectedbythemild
capacity utilization rate of only 60%, should prevent demandside inflationary pressure from
building up. Thus, we now look for only 1.4% headline inflation in 2015, compared to 2.4%
previously.Thenewprojectionstillforeseesa2H15pickupinheadlineinflationbutthepaceis
slowerthanthatofthepreviousassessment.

Figure6:Inflationislikelytoremainbenign
%YoY
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2010

Headlineinflation

Coreinflation

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source:MOC,KT ZMICOResearch

REFERTODISCLOSURESECTIONATTHEENDOFTHENOTESpage6of20

TheMPCisanticipatedtokeepthepolicyrateat2.00%throughout2015
Duetotheinflationdowngrade,wenownolongerseeratehikesin2H15.However,neitherdo
weforeseeanyratecutinourbaselineprojectionduetotworeasons.Firstly,eventhoughwe
seethattheinflationhasaveryhighchancetofallbelowtheMPCstargetrangeof3.01.5%2,
we do not think that it will respond as the weakness in headline inflation will possibly be
temporaryanditcouldpickupinthesecondhalfoftheyear.Secondly,whilefearsoverrisks
togrowthseemtobemountingatthemoment,intensifyingcallsforratecuts,webelievethat
theMPCsharesourviewthattherecoverywillcontinuebyitself,andthusthereisnoneedto
cuttheratefurtheratthispoint.Hence,theMPCislikelytostayinwaitandseemode.Ifthe
recovery isnot derailed, the MPC is anticipated to keep the policy rate at2.00% throughout
2015.

NarrowinginterestrategapislikelytoputpressureonTHB
As our base case projection no longer foresees Thai policy rate hikes next year, the interest
rategapbetweenThailandandtheUSAisexpectedtonarrow.Eventhoughwebelievethat
the direct impact from the interest rate gap to THB movement is trivial3, it may indicate
increasingly different growth between the two regions, thereby possibly deteriorating the
attractiveness of Thailand in terms of capital flow. In addition, as mentioned above, the
currentglobaleconomicenvironmentfavorstheUSDandthegreenbackiswidelyexpectedto
outperform other currencies going forward. Hence, we now expect the THB to slightly
depreciate,from32.5thisyearto33.0nextyear.

Politicaldevelopmentsremainakeyfactortowatchnextyear
Since the coup, the military junta has been able to successfully stabilize Thai politics. Even
though street protests have vanished, risks from politics have not disappeared and could
emergeinthemonthsahead.Webelievethatthekeyfactortowatchwillbethedevelopment
ofthecharterdrafting.Ifthedraftersfailtomeetthedeadlinesorifthereareanysignsthat
the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) will stay in power longer than previously
expected,politicalturmoilisverylikelytoreturn.Thus,webelievethattherearetwoperiods
to watch in this regard. The first is April. According to the interim charter, 19 April is the
deadlinefortheConstitutionalDraftingCommittee(CDC)toproposeadraftconstitutiontothe
NationalReformCouncil(NRC)fordeliberation,orelsetheprocessmustberestarted.Ifthis
goes as planned, the second period to watch is August when the NRC will deliberate on
whether to approve the new charter. If not, the process will restart. In the case that the
processmustberestarted,webelievethatmanypeoplewillbegintoexpressdisenchantment
with the NCPO, raising domestic political tension and possibly leading to another round of
politicalturmoil.

Notethatatthetimeofwriting,theinflationtargetfor2015hadnotyetbeenapprovedbytheFinanceMinister
SeeThawornkaiwong2013forexample

REFERTODISCLOSURESECTIONATTHEENDOFTHENOTESpage7of20

Figure7:Politicaldevelopmentstowatch
Date
2014

2015

Roadmap

31Jul

200memberNationalLegislativeAssembly(NLA)appointed(with28membersaddedlateron
27Sep,partiallyreplacingdisqualifiedmembers,bringingthetotalnumberofmembersto
220)

6Oct

250memberNationalReformCouncil(NRC)appointed

21Oct

NRCsfirstmeeting

4Nov

36memberCharterDraftingCommittee(CDC)appointed

21Dec

NRCgivesadviceorrecommendationstoCDC

19Apr

CDCproposesadraftconstitutiontoNRCfordeliberation

29Apr

NRCchairmanconvenesameetingofNRCfordeliberationonthedraftconstitution

19May

NCPO/cabinetmayproposeamendments

29May

NRCmayproposeamendments

28Jul

CDCmaydeliberateontheproposedamendmentsandreturntheeditedconstitutiontoNRC

12Aug

NRCdecisiononwhethertoapprovethenewcharter

11Sep

NRCchairmanpresentsthedraftoftheconstitutiontotheKingforHissignature

10Dec

ThelastdaytowaitfortheKingssignature

4Q15

Someorganiclawsmayneedtobecraftedtofacilitatetheupcomingelection.Ifthisisthe
case,theelectionmaynotbeheldwithin2015.

Source:KT ZMICOResearch

REFERTODISCLOSURESECTIONATTHEENDOFTHENOTESpage8of20

Marketoutlook:uptrendtocontinue
SETIndextargetisupgradedto1,750pointsatyearend2015
Inourbasecase,theSETIndexistargetedat1,750points,basedonPERof15.7times(+1.0SD)
andEPSgrowthof17.2%,upgradedfrom1,686pointsinthepreviousestimate.Keydriversfor
theindexare1)domesticeconomicrecovery2)globalliquidityand3)capitalflow.However,
higher volatility is also expected next year given the normalization of Fed policy. Other
concernsarerenewalofemergingmarketcurrencyrisks,aworsethanexpectedThaieconomy
along with downward earnings revisions for 20142015. Also note that the bottomup
approachtargetiscurrentlyat1,720points.

Figure8:SETIndexscenarios
Scenario

Thai
GDP

BestCase
(15%)

4.00
%

BaseCase
(70%)

4.00
%

WorstCase
(15%)

3.50
%

Politics
Generalelectionis
setaccordingto
NCPOsplanned
roadmap(within
1Q15)
Generalelectionis
onlyslightly
delayed(within
2Q15)
Generalelectionis
delayedforatleast
one year

Indextarget
2015E

PER(x)

EPS
growth

1890

17.2
(5yraverage+1.5SD)

17.20%

1750

16.0
(5yraverage+1.0SD)

17.20%

1550

14.8
(5yraverage+0.5SD)

12.00%

Source:Bloomberg,KTZMICOResearch
Figure9:SETIndexprojections

Figure10:PERsensitivity

Source:Bloomberg,KTZMICOResearch

Source:Bloomberg,KTZMICOResearch

Undemandingvaluation
Inabsoluteterms,theSETIndexisnowconsiderablycheapinourview,tradingat13.8times
PER(slightlyhigherthanthe5yraverageSD)of2015Eearnings.Moreover,theSETIndexnow
looksattractivecomparedtoothermarkets,withalowerPEGratioandahigherdividendyield.
TheSETIndexisexpectedtobeoneofthefewmarketswithaPEGratiolowerthantheonein
2015E,andatthesametimeprovidingadividendyieldat3.2%(averageis2.7%).

REFERTODISCLOSURESECTIONATTHEENDOFTHENOTESpage9of20

Figure 11: SET Index PER bands

Figure 12: PER bands table

Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research

Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research

Figure 13: SET Index PVB bands

Figure 14: PER bands table

Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research

Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research

Figure 15: Global equity market PEG ratios

Figure 16: Global equity market dividend yields

Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research

Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research

REFERTODISCLOSURESECTIONATTHEENDOFTHENOTESpage10of20

KeyDrivers

Thoughmorevolatilityisexpected,webelievetheThaiequitymarketwillcontinueitsuptrend
nextyear,supportedbybothdomesticandexternalfactors:

1)Domesticeconomicrecovery

TheSETIndexisnormallycorrelatedwithnominalGDPduringcrises,asshowninfigure17and
18 below. History shows that GDP took around 34 quarters to strongly recover after it
bottomed out. Mapping thesame periodwith the SET Index, we found similar patterns with
the index, as it increased 24 quarters after GDP bottomed out. For this round of economic
slowdown,GDPreacheditsbottomin1Q14;thus,weexpecttheSETIndextoincreaseatleast
until the first quarter next year. Moreover, with the economic recovery estimated to gather
pace during the rest of the year, we see a great chance for the SET Index to continue its
uptrendbeyondthefirstquarteraswell.
Figure17:NominalGDPduringcrises

Figure18:SETIndexduringcrises

Source:Bloomberg,KTZMICOResearch

Source:Bloomberg,KTZMICOResearch

Corporateearningsareexpectedtogrow15.2%from2015E,fromthelowbaseof4.6%growth
in 2014E. The sectors that are expected to have the highest earnings growth are the
transportation and tourism sectors, which were adversely affected by political unrest in the
first half of this year. However, we see downside risk to the energy sector ifthe crude price
fallsfurther.Atthesametime,thereareupsiderisksforothersectorsasadecliningoilpriceis
supportive for the economy as a whole, especially for the airline, consumption and
constructionsectors.

Figure19:SETIndexEPSrevision

Figure20:SETIndexEPSgrowthrevisions

Source:Bloomberg,KTZMICOResearch

Source:Bloomberg,KTZMICOResearch

REFERTODISCLOSURESECTIONATTHEENDOFTHENOTESpage11of20

Figure21:Sectorearningsgrowth2015E

Figure22:SectorPEG2015E

Source:Bloomberg,KTZMICOResearch

Source:Bloomberg,KTZMICOResearch

2)Globalliquidity

Lookingtoward2015,majorcentralbanksarestillexpectedtobesupportiveofglobalequity.
TheBoJannouncedanotherroundofQQEtoincreaseassetpurchasesto80trillionJYP(710
billion USD). Moreover, the ECB is estimated to include government bonds in its stimulus
program in the first half of next year, with the total amount of the program estimated at
around1trillioneuro(500billionEUR,or650billionUSD,isexpectedin2015E).Thus,theBoJ
andECBshouldaddatleast1.36trillionUSDtogloballiquidity,morethanenoughtooffsetthe
absenceof1.02trillionUSDinQE3fromtheFed.

Inaddition,evenaftertheFedendeditsQE3inOctober,theU.S.centralbankhasguidedthat
themarketshouldnotexpectaratehikesoonerthanthesecondquarternextyear.Theclear
signal from the Fed together with low inflation expectation has shored up equity markets
recentlyandweexpectriskyassetpricestocontinuetobenefitfromeasingmonetarypolicyin
2015.

Figure23:G3centralbanksbalancesheets

Source:Bloomberg,KTZMICOResearch

REFERTODISCLOSURESECTIONATTHEENDOFTHENOTESpage12of20

EuropeanQEtohavesizeableimpactonSETIndex
WhileMr.Draghi,theECBpresident,hasguidedthatthenewpurchases,togetherwithLTRO,
willhaveasizeableimpactontheECBsbalancesheet,wealsoexpectasizeableimpacton
our index. We try to quantify the magnitude of the impact by comparing the SET Indexs
performancewiththesizeofthestimuluspackagesfromthethreeroundsofQEfromtheU.S.
Positivereturnswereseeninallthoseperiods;however,themagnitudevaried.InthefirstQE,
thepackagesizewas13.6timestheSETmarketcapitalizationwhiletheindexgained96.1%,
implyingamultiplierof7.0times(96.1/13.6).Meanwhile,inthesecondQE,themultiplierwas
only2.6times.

IfwecomparehistoricaldatawiththeexpectedsizeofthecomingQEfromtheECB,wederive
a3.8%10.3%gainintheindexfora500billionEURprogramanda7.6%20.7%gainforaone
trillionEURprogram,dependingonthedegreeofthemultiplierassumed.This,inturn,implies
the SET Index ranging between 1,5951,696 and 1,6541,855 points for 500 billion EUR and
onetrillionEURprograms,respectively.

Figure24:EstimatedSETIndeximpactfromECBstimulus

Source:Bloomberg,KTZMICOResearch,asof22Dec14

3)CapitalFlow

AlthoughweexpectonlylimitedcapitalinflowtograduallyreturntotheThaistockmarket,we
dont expect any large capital outflow in 2015 either. Foreign investors have recorded a
reducedallocationintheThaistockmarketsince2013whentheysoldasmuchas190billion
THB and they have sold 27 billion THB year to date. This has resulted in a reduction of the
foreignholdingofThaistockto31.85%,whichisthelowestlevelsince2009,thusleavingless
room for outflow. In our view, even if the dollar continues to strengthen next year, the
stabilizedpoliticalsituationandimprovingdomesticeconomicconditionsshouldsupportsome
degreeofinflow,oratleastlimittheoutflowanddownsideriskforthemarket.

REFERTODISCLOSURESECTIONATTHEENDOFTHENOTESpage13of20

Figure25:Foreignnetbuy/sell

Figure26:ForeignholdingofThaistocks

Source:Bloomberg,KTZMICOResearch

Source:Bloomberg,KTZMICOResearch

Generalelectionandliftingofmartiallawinourbestcasescenario
Theliftingofmartiallawisanothermajorfactortosupportthemarketin2015;however,we
seeonly aslight possibilityfor this tohappen soon.While the issueof endingmartial law in
some areas has been raised from time to time, PM Prayuth Chanocha remains concerned
about the political situation and marital law has thus continued. Nonetheless, we believe a
partialliftingofmartiallawwillfinallybepossiblenextyear,especiallyintourismprovinces,if
thegovernmentcancallforageneralelectioninearly2016asplanned.Thiswillbeupsiderisk
forthemarketintermsofboostingconfidenceandattractingmorefundinflow.Notethatin
2006,martiallawwasliftedinsomeareasonlythreemonthsafterthecoup.

Concerns

LimitedimpactfromFedsratehikesin2015E
One of the concerns for global equity markets next year is a rate hike from the Federal
Reserve. However, in the past, the SET Index saw only a slightly negative and shortterm
impactfromthetighteningoftheratebytheU.S.centralbank.Infact,inthelastfiverounds
Fed ratehikes, the SET Index averaged positive returnsof 20% and 8% during the sixmonth
periodsbeforeandaftertherateincrease,respectively.However,somevolatilityintheshort
termispossibleasstatisticssuggestanaveragemarketpullbackof2%onemonthafterthe
firstratehike.However,wedonotexpectasignificantcorrectionorpanicinthemarketasFed
rate increases have been widely anticipated by investors, especially if a hike does not come
soonerthanthesecondquarterofnextyear.Moreover,consideringthebrightoutlookofthe
U.S.economy,theincreaseintheinterestrateisnotthatworrisomeinourview.

Figure27:Fedfundsratevs.S&P500andSETindices

Source:Bloomberg,KTZMICOResearch,

REFERTODISCLOSURESECTIONATTHEENDOFTHENOTESpage14of20


Figure28:SETIndexperformancesduringFedsrateincreases

Source:Bloomberg,KTZMICOResearch,

Investmentstrategy

Maintainoverweightonequity
We maintain our equity weighting at 80% of our recommended portfolio, with expected
returns of approximately 1013% annually. Bonds are maintained at 10% as we expect the
interest rate to remain unchanged for the year 2015E. Gold and crude oil hold 5% each for
diversifiedhedging.Weoverweightthebankingandtransportationsectors.

Figure29:Sectorweighting

Source:Bloomberg,KTZMICOResearch

Governmentboostedstocksareprominent
The government will play a crucial role next year on the back of economic reforms and
stimulus;thus,werecommendinvestinginstocksthatwillbenefitfromgovernmentmeasures.
We roughly divide that impact into four categories: investment, consumption, tourism and
energy reform (as shown in figure 30). Government spending is expected to accelerate next
year, which will boost investment and private consumption. We expect the banking,
constructionandcommercesectorstobethemainbeneficiaries.Fortourism,thegovernment
alsoaimstorevivethedomestictourismsectorviataxandvisaexemptionmeasures.Finally,
fortheenergysector,withtheuncertaintyregardingthecrudeprice,alternativeenergyisnow
looking more attractive, especially with the new Power Development Plan focusing more on
coalfireandsolarpower.OurtoppicksareKBANK,SCB,CPALL,CK,AAV,andSPCG.

REFERTODISCLOSURESECTIONATTHEENDOFTHENOTESpage15of20

Figure30:Governmentstimuluspackages

Source:KTZMICOResearch

Figure31:Toppicksintheportfolio

Source:Bloomberg,KTZMICOResearch,asof25Dec14

REFERTODISCLOSURESECTIONATTHEENDOFTHENOTESpage16of20

SectorOutlooks2015E

BankingSector2015outlook(Overweight;TopPicks:KBANK,SCB)

2015Einvestmentthesis
For the 2015 outlook, we expect a faster economic turnaround on the consumption side
(seeingimprovingmomentumsince3Q14),followedbytheinvestmentside.Themaintheme
and driver for 1H15 will be consumption play (except for the autorelated sector), which
should largely benefit banks with a higher noninterest income base (especially KBANK and
SCB), while CAPEX play (positive for large banks) should follow in 2H15. This follows our
expectation that 2015 GDP growth of 4% (vs. the forecast of 0.8% in 2014) will be led by
governmentspendingaswellasprivateconsumption.

Meanwhile, we no longer see rate hikes in 2H15 and now expect a stable interest rate
environment in 2015E or a possible rate cut depending mainly on the degree of economic
recoveryandtheoilpricesituation.Inthecaseofaratecut,weseegreaterbenefitstobanks
withhigh exposureto fixedrateloans (mainlyauto hirepurchase operators,i.e., TISCO, KKP
andTCAP).Meanwhile,largerbanksshouldseeaneutralimpactthankstotheirefficientNIM
management(especiallyKBANK,SCBandKTB).

201516Eearningsoutlooksremainsolid
Weexpectthesectorsnetprofitgrowthat5%in2014E,11%in2015Eand14%in2016Ewith
normalizedprofit(PPOP)growthat9%,9%and11%,respectively.KeyNPgrowthdriversfor
201415Eare1)anticipatedloangrowthof5%and8%in201415E;2)netfeeincomegrowth
of8%and14%,respectively;3)lowercreditcostto86bpsand81bps,respectively,from95
bpsin2013.Moreover,modestNIMimprovementandlowercosttoincomeratiosareother
earningsboosts.

KBANK,SCBandTMBourtoppicks
WearemaintainingourOverweightstanceforthebankingsectorgiventhatbankswillbethe
mainbeneficiaryoftheeconomicrecovery.Moreover,thecurrentvaluationsarenearthelow
band of the upcycle economy and have become attractive from an LT investment
perspective.OurtoppicksremainKBANKandSCB,whileTMBisattractiveforatradingstance
ontheM&Atheme.

EnergySectorNeutral;TopPicks:PTT,RATCH

Weexpecttheenergysectortodeliverpoorearningsin4Q14E,largelydraggeddownbythe
performanceofdownstreamplayers(TOP,PTTGC,IRPC,BCP)onabiggerstocklossinthelast
quarter following the deep plunge of the crude price to US$5560/bbl. Note that we expect
most downstream players to deliver a net loss in 4Q14E, largely due to the huge stock loss
despitebettermarketGRM/GIMfollowingthewideningcrackspreadsofmiddledistillatesas
wellastheloweryieldlossandcrudepremium.Meanwhile,PTTEPs4Q14Eearningsriskison
the downside, particularly from the noncash impairment loss linked to the shortlived
Montara oil field (~US$300mn), and likely from the other uneconomic petroleum fields (the
MarianaOil Sandsproject, for example),reflecting a bearmarket with debasedoil prices in
thenextfewyears(pertheaccountingstandards).

OurNPforecastsfortheenergysectorcallfornegativegrowthof15%YoYin2014Ebeforea
reversal to +16% YoY growth in 2015E due to the base effect of the massive stock loss in
2H14E.Takingoutthisbaseeffect(withthesectorsexpectedstocklossofBt33bnin2014E),
our forecasts call for NP growth of +3% YoY in 2014E and 2% YoY in 2015E, with the
downwardrevisiononthecrudeoilpricetobeoffsetbythebenefitoftheNGVpriceincrease,
alongwithvolumeexpansionandthekickoffofnewprojects.Thesectors2016ENPislikelyto
deliver11%YoYgrowthgiventheeasingofoilpricesandthecontinuingNGVpricehikes.

REFERTODISCLOSURESECTIONATTHEENDOFTHENOTESpage17of20

Our forecasts for the sectors 201416E NP growth of 15%/+16%/+11% are ahead of the
consensus forecasts by 15%/9%/5%, as we have factored in the huge stock loss in 4Q14E,
along with the Dubai price assumption cut (to US$70/bbl in 2015E and US$75/bbl in 2016E)
andthe assumed 75%chance of anNGV price hiketo match withPTTs cost (approximately
Bt5/kgwiththefirstBt2/kgalreadyeffectiveandtheremainingBt3/kgincreaseexpectedto
occurstepbystepeverysixmonths).

Theenergysectoriscurrentlytradingat1.3xPBV(1.25SD),vs.duringtheglobalcrisisin2H08
at 1.0x PBV (2SD), with current share prices trading at an 1124% discount ahead of their
valuations.Despitetheundemandingvaluation,sectorearningsriskisincreasingasthemarket
questions whether there is more pain to come with regard to oil prices (to the low US$40s
level);wekeepourNeutralratingunchanged.Weretainourbasketoftoppicks:PTT(2015E
SOTPbasedTP:Bt387)andRATCH(2015ESOTPbasedTP:Bt68),whileoursecondtierpickis
IRPC(2015ESOTPbasedTP:Bt3.9).

CommerceSectorNeutral;Toppick:CPALL

Consumption should recover to a normal growth rate at around 4% in 2015 as government

stimulusandstablepoliticswillbedriversboostingconsumersentiment,tourismandprivate
investment. However, the recovery may remain slow in 1H15 with weak crop prices as a
constraint. The recovery should becomemore obviousin 2H15 when more stimulus and the
resumptionofprivateinvestmenttakeeffect.WebelieveCPALLwillbethefirstbeneficiaryas
its extensive network and dynamic marketing campaigns/promotions should significantly
improvetrafficduringtheconsumptionrecovery.Itsadvantagesoverrivalsfromeconomiesof
scale and its established distribution system will remain a key strength, while the low base
from2014anddecliningSG&Awillalsobefactorsboostingprofitgrowth.

PropertySectorNeutral;TopPicks:QH,SPALI

Weexpectcumulativepresalesofdevelopersunderourcoveragetofallbyaround10.0%this
year,mainlyduetopoliticalturmoilfromJantoMay14.Asthelowinterestrateenvironment
continues, we should see improvement over the low base next year, but presales growth is
expectedtobelimitedintherangeof05%becauseofhighhouseholddebt,whichnowstands
at83%ofGDP.Meanwhile,weshouldseestrongrevenuegrowthnextyearthankstorecord
high backlogs; cumulative transfers for the sector in 2015E are expected at Bt229.6bn
(+19.4%),upfromBt192.3bn(+11.6%)in2014E.OurfirsttoppickisQH(Buy,TPBt5.10)forits
undemanding valuation (3.4x residential 2015E PER) and potential upside to 2015E transfer
growth (estimate: 7.8% vs. companys target: 1520%); the company cites aggressive TH
launchesasthesupportforstronggrowthnextyear.SPALI(Buy,TPBt28.25)isthesecondtop
pick for its highly secured revenue streams (over 70% secured in 2015E) and strong 2015E
earningsgrowth of 16.0%. Also, SPALI is trading at 8.0x2015E PER, one of the lowest in the
industry.

Food&AgroSectorOverweight;TopPick:GFPT

Thethreemeatstocksunderourcoverage,namelyCPF,GFPTandTUF,areexpectedtoreport
strongearningsin2015(+44%YoY).Keyearningsgrowthdriversinclude:1)expectedsmaller
losscontributionsfromtheshrimpbusiness(atCPFandTUF)in2H14,whichwillturntoprofit
in2015E;2)expectedhighdomesticmeatprices,especiallybroilerprices,todrivegrossprofit
margins;3)anticipatedincreasesinexportpricesforchickenproductsasaresultofthepeak
sales season as well as growing demand from Japan and Russia (note: Japan has imported
morechickenproductsfromThailandtoreplacetheabsentimportsfromChinaduetosafety
reasons while Russia will import more products from Thailand to replace the absent supply
fromtheU.S.andEurope);and4)theexpecteddeclinesinrawmaterialcosts(i.e.,cornand
soybeanmealcosts)in2Hduetohighsupplyduringtheharvestseason.

REFERTODISCLOSURESECTIONATTHEENDOFTHENOTESpage18of20

TransportSectorOverweight;TopPicks:NOK,AAV,BTS

Earningsin2015fortheaviationsectorarelikelytoturnaroundYoY,owingto:1)theimpact
of a low base from the political crisis in 2014; 2) passenger volume improvement, 3) price
pressurerelief,and4)lowerjetfuelprices.Earningsfortheshippingsectorarealsolikelyto
turn around from fleet expansion despite the likely flat BDI owing to the weakening global
economy.BTSisexpectedtobenefitfromthegovernmentsplantostartbiddingfortheO&M
servicesoftheGreenLinemasstransitprojectin1H15(ourearningsprojectionsandvaluation
donotincludeadditionalO&Mservicesinthefuture).BECLsearningsarelikelytogrowinline
withtrafficvolumegrowth.

HealthcareSectorUnderweight

Hospitalsprofitshouldincreasewith2025%growthin2015,astheimprovingeconomyand
calm political situation will boost domestic demand and foreign patients. However, volume
growth should be moderate, given the economy remaining slow and key growth sources in
medicaltravel(MiddleEastandMyanmar)saturating.Billsizegrowthwillbedrivenlargelyby
treatmentintensity,asweakspendingandcompetitiondiscouragepricehikes.Newcapacities
willboostrevenuegrowthforBGH,butlossesintheearlystageofnewhospitalsmayhinder
profitability.Meanwhile,thesignificantriseinthenumberofJCIhospitalsremainsanobstacle
preventingstronggrowthforBH.Moreover,thenewWorldMedicalCenterhospitalwillbe
analbatrossaroundBCH'sneck,pullingitsprofitdowninthenextfewyears.Inourview,the
highvaluations(PEGof1.51.6xforBGHandBH,1.3xforBCH)lookunjustified.

ConstructionServiceSectorNeutral;TopPicks:CK,TTCL

Earningsin2015arelikelytoflattenowingtotheabsenceofadditionalordersfromthepublic
sector in 2H131H14 due to the prolonged protests. However, we estimate construction
projectsvaluedataroundBt170bnfromthepublicsectortostartthebiddingprocessin2015,
accordingtothegovernmentsinfrastructureinvestmentplanvaluedatBt2.4trnoverthenext
ten years. These projects include three double track railway projects, partial work from the
SBIAexpansion(phaseII),andonemasstransitproject(OrangeLine).

Note:KTZMICOisapartnershipbetweenKTBandZMICO,KTZMICOisaFinancialAdvisor
forBH,AnexecutiveofKTZMICOSecuritiesisalsoamemberofBCPsboard.

REFERTODISCLOSURESECTIONATTHEENDOFTHENOTESpage19of20

DISCLAIMER
This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness
cannotbeguaranteed.Thestatementsandopinionshereinwereformedafterdueandcarefulconsiderationforuseas
informationforthepurposesofinvestment.Theopinionscontainedhereinaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.This
documentisnot,andshouldnotbeconstruedas,anofferorthesolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellanysecurities.The
useofanyinformationcontainedinthisdocumentshallbeatthesolediscretionandriskoftheuser.

KTZMICORESEARCHRECOMMENDATIONDEFINITIONS
STOCKRECOMMENDATIONS
BUY:Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more
overthenext12months

OUTPERFORM:Expectingtotalreturnsbetween10%
to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns
overasixmonthperiodduetospecificcatalysts

UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between

10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market
returns over a sixmonth period due to specific
catalysts

SELL:Expectingnegativetotalreturnsof10%ormore
overthenext12months

SECTORRECOMMENDATIONS
OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's
coverage universe, is expected to outperform the
relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the
next12months.

NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's

coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with
the relevant primary market index over the next 12
months.

UNDERWEIGHT:Theindustry,asdefinedbytheanalyst's
coverage universe, is expected to underperform the
relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12
months.

REFERTODISCLOSURESECTIONATTHEENDOFTHENOTESpage20of20

th

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th

th

KTZMICO Securities Company Limited

st

8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500
Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000

Phaholyothin Branch

rd

Fax. (66-2) 631-1709

Ploenchit Branch

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nd

Sindhorn Branch

3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,

8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,

1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,

900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,

Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132

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Phayathai, Bangkok 10400

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Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330

Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500

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Chachoengsao Branch

Viphavadee Branch

Phitsanulok Branch

G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,

Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch

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Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900

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Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500

Telephone: 083-490-2873

Fax. (66-2) 618-8569

th

Chonburi Branch

Pattaya Branch

108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,

4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,

382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,

T.Namuang, A.Muang,

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A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260

Chachoengsao 24000

A. Muang, Cholburi 20000

Telephone: (038) 362-420-9

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Fax. (038) 362-430

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Fax. (038) 287-637

Khon Kaen Branch

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Hat Yai Branch

Sriworajak Building Branch

200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,

1st 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222

260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,

Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,

Luang Road, Pomprab,

A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000

Hatyai Songkhla 90110

Bankgok 10100

Telephone: (043) 389-171-193

Telephone: (074) 355-530-3

Telephone: (02) 689-3100

Fax. (043) 389-209

Fax: (074) 355-534

Fax. (02) 689-3199

Central World Branch

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Phuket Branch

999/9 The Offices at Central World,

422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan

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Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,

Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,

Bangkok 10330

Chiang Mai 50100

Phuket 83000

Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,

Telephone: (053) 270-072

Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683

(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899

Fax: (053) 272-618

Fax. (076) 222-861

Pak Chong Branch

Cyber Branch @ North Nana

173 175, Mittapap Road,

Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor,

North Nana Branch
35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua
Subdistrict , Wattana District,
Bangkok 10110
Telephone: 083-490-2871

Nong Sarai, Pak Chong,

Nakhon Ratchasima 30130
Tel. (044) 279-511
Fax. (044) 279-574

Nakhon Ratchasima Branch

Bangkhae Branch

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275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae,
Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160
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624/9 Changphuek Road, .

Naimaung, A.Maung,
Nakhon Ratchasima 30000
Telephone: (044) 247222
Fax: (044) 247171
Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our
views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in
securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are
made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.