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Introduction
Conclusion
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1. Introduction
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1. Introduction
In the following we exclusively consider per risk Excess of Loss
treaties (per risk XLs). This is a special non-proportional
reinsurance contract: The distribution of each loss between
cedant (insurer) and reinsurer isnt proportional but depends on
the respective loss size.
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Reinsurance-Pricing
17.01.2013
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1. Introduction
In the following we exclusively consider per risk Excess of Loss
treaties (per risk XLs). This is a special non-proportional
reinsurance contract: The distribution of each loss between
cedant (insurer) and reinsurer isnt proportional but depends on
the respective loss size.
Priority (Deductible) = Retention of the cedant and Limit
(Coverage) = maximum excess-loss for the reinsurer are the
most important characterizing parameters of an XL.
HSR-logo
Reinsurance-Pricing
17.01.2013
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1. Introduction
In the following we exclusively consider per risk Excess of Loss
treaties (per risk XLs). This is a special non-proportional
reinsurance contract: The distribution of each loss between
cedant (insurer) and reinsurer isnt proportional but depends on
the respective loss size.
Priority (Deductible) = Retention of the cedant and Limit
(Coverage) = maximum excess-loss for the reinsurer are the
most important characterizing parameters of an XL.
Common description of an (per risk) XL:
Limit after / in excess of / xs Priority,
e.g. 3.000.000 EUR xs 1.000.000 EUR.
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Reinsurance-Pricing
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1. Introduction
In the following we exclusively consider per risk Excess of Loss
treaties (per risk XLs). This is a special non-proportional
reinsurance contract: The distribution of each loss between
cedant (insurer) and reinsurer isnt proportional but depends on
the respective loss size.
Priority (Deductible) = Retention of the cedant and Limit
(Coverage) = maximum excess-loss for the reinsurer are the
most important characterizing parameters of an XL.
Common description of an (per risk) XL:
Limit after / in excess of / xs Priority,
e.g. 3.000.000 EUR xs 1.000.000 EUR.
XL Pricing = XL Quotation = Calculation of XL Net Premium =
Calculation of XL Risk Premium =
Expected XL-loss amount for the forthcoming year =
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(Expected XL severity) * (Expected XL frequency).
Prof.Dr. Michael Frhlich (HS Regensburg)
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1. Introduction
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1. Introduction
Reinsurance is all about peak risks or risk volatility on:
I
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1. Introduction
Reinsurance is all about peak risks or risk volatility on:
I
I
I
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1. Introduction
Reinsurance is all about peak risks or risk volatility on:
I
I
I
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Reinsurance-Pricing
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1. Introduction
Reinsurance is all about peak risks or risk volatility on:
I
I
I
Ideal World:
I
I
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Ni
X
Li,k
k =1
Pi
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Ni
n X
X
Li,k
i=1 k =1
Pi
n
X
Pi
BCi .
n
P
i=1
Pi
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i=1
Prof.Dr. Michael Frhlich (HS Regensburg)
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Pi
Li,k
n
X
Ni
Pi
k =1
BC =
.
n
P
Pi
Ni
i=1
Pi
i=1
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Pi
Li,k
n
X
Ni
Pi
k =1
BC =
.
n
P
Pi
Ni
i=1
Pi
i=1
Pi
n
P
Pi
i=1
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Pi
Li,k
n
X
Ni
Pi
k =1
BC =
.
n
P
Pi
Ni
i=1
Pi
i=1
Pi
n
P
Pi
i=1
Ni
Pi
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Pi
Li,k
n
X
Ni
Pi
k =1
BC =
.
n
P
Pi
Ni
i=1
Pi
i=1
Pi
n
P
Pi
i=1
Ni
Pi
Ni
P
Li,k
k =1
Ni
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Claims Frequency
Average Claim Amounts
...and to reflect portfolio specificities.
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Claims Frequency
Average Claim Amounts
...and to reflect portfolio specificities.
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Xi
PMLi
Xi
w)
PMLi
besitzen.
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Xi
PMLi
Xi
w)
PMLi
besitzen.
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Gb,g (x) =
x,
ln(1+(g1)x)
,
ln(g)
g=1v b=0
b=1, g>1
1bx
bg = 1 , g > 1
1b ,
(g1)b+(1gb)bx
)
ln(
1b
, b>0, b=
6 1 , bg 6= 1 , g > 1.
ln(gb)
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gc = g(c) = e(0,78+0,12c)c .
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gc = g(c) = e(0,78+0,12c)c .
Bei der Implementierung kann man sich auf den letzten Ast der
Funktion beschrnken, da alle plausiblen Eingabewerte des
Parameters c fr Exposurekurven in diesem Fall abgedeckt
werden.
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gc = g(c) = e(0,78+0,12c)c .
Bei der Implementierung kann man sich auf den letzten Ast der
Funktion beschrnken, da alle plausiblen Eingabewerte des
Parameters c fr Exposurekurven in diesem Fall abgedeckt
werden.
Die vier Kurven, die durch die Parameter c {1.5, 2, 3, 4} definiert
sind, entsprechen nach Bernegger nherungsweise den Swiss Re
Kurven 1-4. Diese Werte sind zwar einfach zu merken, noch
besser im Sinne der kleinsten Abweichungsquadrate werden die
vier Kurven allerdings durch die Parameter
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c {1.64, 1.94, 2.88, 3.88} beschrieben.
Prof.Dr. Michael Frhlich (HS Regensburg)
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b(v ) = b0 (1 + z)
= b0 (
v log2 (1+z)
)
.
v0
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b(v ) = b0 (1 + z)
= b0 (
v log2 (1+z)
)
.
v0
E(min(X , p))
b(p)
p
=
= ( )log2 (1+z) .
E(min(X , vi ))
b(vi )
vi
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(x x0 )
).
(x x0 ) +
u 1 (1 u)1 du.
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Var (X )
E(X )
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Var (X )
E(X )
Var (X )
E(X )
E(X )
Var (X )
; =
1).
E(X )
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Var (X )
E(X )
Var (X )
E(X )
E(X )
Var (X )
; =
1).
E(X )
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u [0, 1].
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u [0, 1].
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u [0, 1].
xmin
)
x
x = F 1 (u) =
xmin
1
(1 u)
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5. Conclusion
Find the balance between model complexity and realism
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5. Conclusion
Find the balance between model complexity and realism
Main advantages of simple mathematical models: Focus on trends
detection and calibration; economic interpretation (and control of
assumptions); communication.
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5. Conclusion
Find the balance between model complexity and realism
Main advantages of simple mathematical models: Focus on trends
detection and calibration; economic interpretation (and control of
assumptions); communication.
Mixing simple models ensures accuracy and ease of
interpretation.
Long tail business would need
Sophisticated mathematical approach for individual IBNR and
IBNER.
Taking into account superimposed inflation for personal injury.
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5. Conclusion
Find the balance between model complexity and realism
Main advantages of simple mathematical models: Focus on trends
detection and calibration; economic interpretation (and control of
assumptions); communication.
Mixing simple models ensures accuracy and ease of
interpretation.
Long tail business would need
Sophisticated mathematical approach for individual IBNR and
IBNER.
Taking into account superimposed inflation for personal injury.
Risk premium calculation on present value basis (investment
gains).
Actuarial and underwriting judgements are complementary to HSR-logo
mathematical approaches.
Prof.Dr. Michael Frhlich (HS Regensburg)
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Albert Einstein
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