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***Aff
---Advantage Updates
China Threat Uniqueness

China is a threat to the US on many levels

Eoyang and Peritz, 13( March 19th, 2013, Meiki Eoyang and Aki Peritz, Third Way national security program,
senior policy executive at Third Way, Chinas Health and Saftey problems will be Americas.
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2013/03/19/china-real-security-threat-america-lack-ofregulation#comments)
And it's not just food. From high concentrations of lead in Chinese-made cooking and eating utensils on the streets of
Philadelphia, to toothpaste contaminated with diethylene glycol, to blood-thinning drugs in Chicago filled with, well,
fake drugs; to formaldehyde-soaked plywood FEMA trailers; to toxic pufferfish being mislabeled as edible monkfish;
even to pet food that causes kidney failure: all can be traced back to China and its ineffective regulatory mechanisms.
These problems all affect millions of Americans much more so than the latest stealth frigate. There haven't been any
major food scandals in 2013, but given the lax regulatory efforts of the Chinese government, as well as the immense
amount of money that can be made by cutting corners, expect to see another massive scandal eventually. Of course,
most Chinese citizens are painfully aware of their government's regulatory shortcomings, and environmental activism
is quickly becoming a major source of concern for Beijing. It must be galling for China's top policymakers to know
that their own children drink contaminated baby milk, eat poison-laced foods, or breathe contaminated air on a daily
basis. All these factors also lead to many other lifelong problems among kids, including lung damage, reduced
intelligence and heart disease. And maybe the Communist Party, in order to stay in power, will realize that it will have
to address these concerns sooner and much more effectively. But since China's problems affect us directly, America
can help move this process along by providing Beijing a roadmap out of its current predicament. We too have
struggled with many of the environmental and regulatory concerns that China now faces.

Relations Uniqueness

US relationships in Latin America are getting worse

Santibaes, 09 ( Francisco De Santibaes July 10 , 2009) An End to U.S. Hegemony? The Strategic Implications of China's Growing Presence
th

in Latin America, Comparative Strategy https://mail-attachment.googleusercontent.com/attachment/u/0/?

ui=2&ik=08eb2519a2&view=att&th=13fcb79c4341ede7&attid=0.1&disp=inline&realattid=f_hizbej390&safe=1&zw&sadui
e=AG9B_P_o6p833FbULPC-txstLILJ&sadet=1373508353404&sads=BzM0ZMJUsY4IhA3eTgtPOhoKn3s&sadssc=1 )

the most dramatic change in U.S.Latin American relations happened after

September 11, 2001. With terrorist attacks having occurred on American soil, the
George W. Bush administration focused its attention on ghting terrorist networks,
such as al Qaeda, and on conducting the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan . In this context, the
White House overlooked Latin America because it did not perceive it as presenting an
immediate threat to U.S. security. This approach would also have important
consequences for American interests. The U.S. made its lack of commitment clear by
the way it managed two nancial crises. While in 1994 the Clinton administration made every possible effort to
Nevertheless,

provide Mexico with the nancial package its economy needed to avoid a complete debacle after the devaluation of the peso,

Washingtons unwillingness to support Argentina in 2001 created the conditions for a

major crisis.30 Indeed, while the Argentine situation was similar to the one Mexico had gone through in 1995a devaluation
that might be followed by a default of sovereign debtthe Bush administration, under the leadership of the then- Treasury
Secretary Paul ONeill, let Argentina fall into default and suffer the most severe
recession in its modern history. A possible justication for this policy would be that
the White House simply had a different view of how to deal with nancial crises in
emerging marketstrying to avoid the risk of moral hazard, for examplebut evidence seems to indicate that this was not
the case. In fact, changes in behavior were restricted only to Argentina. The Bush administration did provide
nancial support to Turkey when this country was going through similar

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circumstances. Latin American leaders interpreted this special treatment as a sign of
how unwilling the United States was to deal with their problems. This sign was even
stronger due to the fact that, during the 1990s, Argentina had become one of
Washingtons closest allies in the region. What, then, could be the benets of
supporting the United States? After the Argentine crisis criticism emerged about the
nature of the scal and monetary policies the IMF had asked Latin American countries
to implement as a prerequisite for receiving its loans.31 The tight policies demanded by the IMF were,
so the argument goes, the real cause of the economic crisis suffered by emerging markets in recent years. Following a similar
rationale, the presidents of Argentina and Brazil, Nestor Kirchner and, Luiz Ignacio Lula Da Silva, decided in 2006 to pay their entire
debts to the IMF and gain, in that way, more independence to implement the scal and the monetary policies they wanted; now
they would not need the support of the U.S. to obtain the approval of the IMF. Later, after receiving pressure from the U.S. due to
Argentinas unwillingness to join the FTAA, Kirchner stated that, with all respect to the countries of the world and to the United
States, Argentina knows what it has to do, what the carnal relations were, what it was to be a dependent country, what hunger is,
the collapse of industry, of production and of exports, which meant subordinating ourselves to policies to which we did not have to
subordinate ourselves.32 The perceptions about the benets of maintaining close links with the U.S. have, indeed, changed.

Chinese Influence in Latin America is rising

Funaro, 13 (Kaitlin Funaro, journalist at Global Post. Xi flies to Mexica as China battles US for influence in Latin
America. June 4th, 2013 http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/china/130604/xi-flies-mexico-china-battles-usinfluence-latin-ame)

ChinesePresidentXiJinpingismakingthemostofhisfourcountrytouroftheAmericastopositionChinaasacompetitortothe
USandTaiwan'seconomicinfluenceintheregion.XiarrivesinMexicoTuesdayforathreedayvisitinwhichheandMexican
PresidentEnriquePeaNietoareexpectedtodiscusstheireconomicties. Thetwonationsareeconomicpartnersbutalso
competitors,particularlywhenitcomestoexportstotheUnitedStates.MexicoandChinabothenjoystrongexportstothe
AmericanmarketbutMexicoitselfhasbeenfloodedwithcheapChinesegoodsthataredisplacingdomesticgoods."Chinaisa
complicatedcase"forMexico,AldoMuozArmenta,politicalscienceprofessorattheAutonomousUniversityofMexicoStatetoldUSAToday."It'snotthe
healthiest(relationship)indiplomatictermsbecausethebalanceoftradehasbeensounequal."Whenitcomestoeconomic
influence,ChinamaybegainingtheupperhandinLatinAmerica.ChinaisincreasingitsfundingtotheregionjustastheUS
hasbeencomingunderpressuretocutaidandinvestment."IfImaLatinAmericanleader,ImveryhappybecauseInowhavemorechipstoplay
with,"KevinGallagher,authorofthe2010book"TheDragonintheRoom,"aboutChinasinroadsinLatinAmerica,toldBloomberg."TheonusisontheUS
tocomeupwithamoreflexible,attractiveofferbutthatsnotsoeasybecauseitdoesnthavethedeeppocketslikeitusedto."
LatinAmerica'sgrowingeconomymakesforanattractiveinvestment.TheInternationalMonetaryFundforecasts theregionseconomieswillexpand3.4
percentthisyear,almostthreetimesthepaceofgrowthinthedevelopedworld.Xi'stourofTrinidad,CostaRicaandMexicoaresettingthestageforhisvisitto
Californialaterthisweek,whichwillbehisfirstfacetofacetalkswithObamasincetakingoffice. ThatXi'sLatinAmericatripcamesoearlyintohispresidencyisa
confidentapproachthatshowslittleconcernforAmericanreaction,EvanEllis,aprofessorattheNationalDefenseUniversityinWashingtontoldBloomberg."Inthe
pastChinesepresidentswereverydeferentialtotheUS.,alwaysmakingreferencetoWashingtonsbackyard,"Ellissaid."YoudonthearanyofthatfromXisteam,
thoughyoudontfindanythreateningrhetoriceither."

Chinese Influence high and rising

Grudgings and Gardner, 2011 (Stuart Grudgins and Scott Gardner, journalists for rueters, Rising China threatens
U.S. clout in Latin America. Wednesday March 16th, 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/16/us-latinamerica-chinaidUSTRE72F19C20110316)

The $10 billion package agreed with the China Development Bank was another clear sign of China's surging
influence in Latin America, transforming the region's economies and undermining U.S. dominance in
its traditional "backyard." China will loom large over U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to Latin America this
week as he sends a message that Washington remains relevant to a region that owes much of its robust
economic health in recent years to Chinese demand. In both Brazil and Chile, the two South American
countries that Obama will visit, China has recently overtaken the United States as the number-one
trade partner. Even in those countries where the United States is still the dominant partner, China is
catching up fast. It has lifted growth for years in commodity producers such as Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Peru with its voracious demand for
raw goods such as iron ore, copper, and soy. More recently, it has followed up with a wave of investments and state-backed loans aimed at expanding

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its access to commodities and tapping demand from Latin America's growing ranks of consumers. In doing so, China

has emerged as an
alternative source of funding for Latin American countries' development in areas such as
infrastructure and energy that were long dependent on World Bank or IMF loans that came with more
strings attached. "It's a real opportunity for Latin America if they play it right and it's a real challenge to the U.S.," said Kevin Gallagher, an
international relations professor at Boston University who co-wrote a book on China in Latin America. "The Chinese are a kick in the pants for the
United States to articulate a little bit more of a serious relationship with the region."

Chinas Influence is rising; the US must move now

Ellis, 05 (Dr. Evan Ellis, PhD in Political Sciences and expert on defense transformation in Latin America, June 2005,
http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA434999)
In this monograph, the author argues that China's pursuit of long term strategic objectives is leading the country to
increase its presence in Latin America, with serious national security implications for the United States. Sustained
Chinese economic growth requires ever greater quantities of basic commodities such as petroleum products, coal,
iron and steel, and strategic minerals. As the new generation of Chinese leadership under Hu Jintao has moved
away from the more cautious approach of his predecessor, Jiang Zemin, China has begun to aggressively court
Latin America as its principal source of supply outside Asia. Figures from the Chinese National Statistics Office
show that, for example, 77 percent of all Chinese foreign investment outside Asia in 2003 went to Latin America.
The pattern of Chinese investment in countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and Chile suggests that the Asian giant is
seeking to assure access to critical commodities by constructing vertically integrated supply networks over which it
has leverage. China is purchasing interest in key Latin American suppliers such as the Canadian minerals firm
Noranda, or the Argentine oil subsidiary PlusPetrol Norte. It is also building cooperative relationships with
supplier governments such as the joint oil exploration and refinery construction deals signed with Venezuela and
Brazil in 2004. Where necessary, China is also investing in the infrastructure of Latin American countries to help
them more effectively bring their products to market. In addition to documenting China's aggressive new posture
in specific Latin American countries, this monograph argues that the expanded Chinese trade and investment
presence in the region ultimately will give China a stake in the politics of the region and may tempt it to become
involved in the region's security affairs. Expanded Chinese trade and investment in Latin America, for example,
will expand greatly the community of Chinese nationals in the region. The broadened community of Chinese
nationals multiplies opportunities for incidents involving those nationals, while also expanding the community in
China with an interest in the region. At the same time, significant Chinese investments in Latin American
extractive industries and increasing dependence on its production will cause the Chinese government to seek to
deflect political movements in Latin American countries that could expropriate these investments or disrupt these
resource flows. Ultimately, this monograph argues that Chinese engagement with Latin America will make the
nation both a powerful competitor and a potential partner for the United States in the region. On one hand, China,
with major investments in Latin America and dependence on its material flows, is likely to be a nation interested in
reducing political instability, armed groups, and criminal activity in the region, rather than fueling radical
populism and insurgency. On the other hand, the United States needs to consider to what degree it is willing to
accept a China that has increasing leverage in Latin America through its investment and trade presence-and a
growing interest in the political course of the region. Now, rather than later, is the time for the United States to
begin seriously considering how to most constructively engage the Chinese in the Western Hemisphere

China is replacing US influence in Latin America

Romero and Barrionuevo, 09 (Simon Romero and Alexei Barrionuevo, April 15

, 2009, Deals Help China Expand

Sway in Latin America, journalists for the New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/16/world/16chinaloan.html?
th

loadDynamically=false&commentsPosition=left&_r=0)
Washington tries to rebuild its strained relationships in Latin America,
China is stepping in vigorously, offering countries across the region large amounts of
money while they struggle with sharply slowing economies, a plunge in commodity prices
and restricted access to credit. In recent weeks, China has been negotiating deals to
double a development fund in Venezuela to $12 billion, lend Ecuador at least $1 billion to
build a hydroelectric plant, provide Argentina with access to more than $10 billion in
Chinese currency and lend Brazils national oil company $10 billion . The deals largely focus on China
locking in natural resources like oil for years to come. Chinas trade with Latin America has grown quickly this
decade, making it the regions second largest trading partner after the United States. But the size and scope of these loans point to a deeper
CARACAS, Venezuela As

engagement with Latin America at a time when the Obama administration is starting to address the erosion of Washingtons influence in the

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hemisphere. This is how the balance of power shifts quietly during times of crisis, said David Rothkopf, a former Commerce Department official
in the Clinton administration. The loans are an example of the checkbook power in the world moving to new places, with the Chinese becoming

Mr. Obama will meet with leaders from the region this weekend. They will discuss
the economic crisis, including a plan to replenish the Inter-American Development Bank, a
Washington-based pillar of clout that has suffered losses from the nancial crisis. Leaders
at the summit meeting are also expected to push Mr. Obama to further loosen the United
States policy toward Cuba.
more active.

Terrorism Uniqueness
Terrorism in Cuba is growing
Feldmann and Perala 01 (Andres Feldmann and Maiju Perala, is a graduate student in the Department of Government and
International Studies at theUniversity of Notre Dame. He has worked on political violence, forced uprooting, and immigration issues. He is currently
writing his dissertation on international responses to internal displacement emergencies in the Americas. is a Junior Researcher at the United Nations
University/World Institute for Development
Economics Research in Helsinki, Finland. Kellog Institute for international studies, Nongovernmental Terrorism in Latin America: ReExamining Old Assumptions, July 2001, http://kellogg.nd.edu/publications/workingpapers/WPS/286.pdf)

Cuba has also registered an unexpected increase in terrorist activity in the 1990s.
After having been nearly free from terrorist activity during the Cold War, a wave of bombing
attacks on tourist locations has hit the island. Most of the attacks have not been claimed
by any terrorist organization, however, the Cuban government has claimed that these incidents
are the result of the operations of rightwing Cuban groups based in Miami (Rother 1997, 6).

Terrorism in Cuba is growing and spreading

Sullivan and Beittel 13 (Mark P. Sullivan and June S. Beittel, Sullivan: Specialist in Latin American Affairs,
Beittel: Analyst in Latin American Affairs, April 5, 2013, http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?
article=2063&context=key_workplace)
The Department of State, pursuant to Section 6(j) of the Export Administration Act (EAA) of 1979, has included
Cuba among its list of states sponsoring terrorism since 1982 (the other states currently on the list are Iran,
Sudan, and Syria). Communist Cuba had a history of supporting revolutionary movements and governments in Latin
America and Africa, but in 1992, then Cuban leader Fidel Castro said that his countrys support for insurgents abroad
was a thing of the past. Most analysts accept that Cubas policy generally did change, largely because the breakup of
the Soviet Union resulted in the loss of billions in subsidies. As noted above, Cuba is also on the State
Departments annual list of countries determined to be not cooperating fully with U.S. antiterrorism
efforts pursuant to Section 40A of the Arms Export Control Act. The State Departments 2011 terrorism report
maintained that current and former members of Basque Fatherland and Liberty (ETA) continued to reside in Cuba,
and that press reporting indicated that the Cuban government provided medical care and political assistance to the
FARC. At the same time, the report maintained that there was no indication that the Cuban government provided
weapons or paramilitary training for either ETA or the FARC. With regard to ETA, the State Department reported
that three suspected ETA members were arrested in Venezuela after sailing there from Cuba and were
deported back to Cuba in September 2011 one of the men, Jose Ignacio Echarte, is believed to have ties to
the FARC and is a fugitive from Spain, which has requested his extradition. Another issue noted in the 2011
terrorism report is that the Cuban government continues to permit fugitives wanted in the United
States to reside in Cuba, and provides such support as housing, food ration books, and medical care. In the
112th Congress, a resolution was introduced in the House, H.Res. 226 (King), that would have called for
the immediate extradition or rendering of all fugitives from justice receiving safe harbor in Cuba in
order to escape prosecution or confinement for criminal offenses committed in the United States; no action was
taken on the measure. Cubas retention on the terrorism list has been questioned by some observers. In general,
those who support keeping Cuba on the list point to the governments history of supporting terrorist acts and
armed insurgencies in Latin America and Africa. They point to the governments continued hosting of members of
foreign terrorist organizations and U.S. fugitives from justice. Critics of retaining Cuba on the terrorism list
maintain that it is a holdover of the Cold War. They argue that domestic political considerations keep Cuba on the
terrorism list, while North Korea and Libya (before the overthrow of the Qadhafi regime) were removed, and
maintain that Cubas presence on the list diverts U.S. attention from struggles against serious terrorist threats.
Cuba has been the target of various terrorist incidents over the years. In 1976, a Cuban plane was

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bombed, killing 73 people. In 1997, there were almost a dozen bombings in the tourist sector in Havana
in which an Italian businessman was killed and several others were injured. In November 2000, four anti-Castro
activists were arrested in Panama for a plot to kill Fidel Castro. The four stood trial in March 2004 and were
sentenced on weapons charges to prison terms ranging from seven to eight years. In late August 2004,
Panamanian President Mireya Moscoso pardoned the four men before the end of her presidential
term. One of the men, Luis Posada Carriles (a nationalized Venezuelan citizen originally from Cuba), is
also alleged to be involved in the 1976 Cuban airline bombing and the series of bombings in Havana in 1997.
Posada entered the United States illegally in 2005. In subsequent removal proceedings, an immigration
judge found that Posada could not be removed to Cuba or Venezuela because of concerns that he would face torture,
and he was thereafter permitted to remain in the United States pending such time as he could be transferred to a
different country. Posada subsequently applied for naturalization to become a U.S. citizen. This
application was denied, and criminal charges were brought against him for allegedly false statements made in his
naturalization application and interview. Although a federal district court dismissed the indictment in 2007, its
ruling was reversed by an appellate court in 2008. In April 2009, the United States filed a superseding indictment,
which included additional criminal charges based on allegedly false statements made by Posada in immigration
removal proceedings concerning his involvement in the 1997 Havana bombings. Posadas trial began in January
2011 and he ultimately was acquitted of the perjury charges in April 2011.

Terrorism in Venezuela is growing and spreading

Sullivan and Beittel, 13 (Mark P. Sullivan and June S. Beittel, Sullivan: Specialist in Latin American Affairs,
Beittel: Analyst in Latin American Affairs, April 5, 2013, httTep://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?
article=2063&context=key_workplace)

U.S. officials have expressed concerns over the past several years about Venezuelas
lack of cooperation on antiterrorism efforts, President Hugo Chvezs sympathetic
statements for Colombian terrorist groups, and Venezuelas relations with Iran . Since
May 2006, the Secretary of State has made an annual determination that Venezuela has not been cooperating
fully with United States antiterrorism efforts pursuant to Section 40A of the Arms Export Control Act
(AECA). The most recent determination was made in May 2012. As a result, the United States imposed an arms
embargo on Venezuela in 2006, which ended all U.S. commercial arms sales and retransfers to Venezuela. (Other
countries currently on the Section 40A list include Cuba,

Eritrea, Iran, North Korea, and Syria, not to be confused with the state

United
States has imposed various sanctions on Venezuelan individuals and companies for
supporting the FARC, Iran, and Hezbollah. In June 2011 congressional testimony, State
Department officials again expressed concern about Venezuelas relations with Iran,
its support for the FARC, [and] its lackluster cooperation on counterterrorism.31 At the
sponsors of terrorism list

under Section 6(j) of the Export Administration Act of 1979.) As discussed, below, the

same time, the State Department testied that Colombian-Venezuelan cooperation on terrorism and security matters is clearly

The State Department noted Venezuelas

deportation of several FARC and ELN members to Colombia, including key operatives and highincreasing and being systematized,

yielding notable results.

prole political actors. It said that President Chvez has called on the FARC to join a political reconciliation process and has
claimed that any discussion between Venezuelan government officials and the FARC about establishing bases in Venezuela took

the State Department maintained that

Venezuela and Colombia continued the dialogue begun in 2010 on security and border
issues, and noted that on several occasions during the year, President Chvez, in referring to the FARC and ELN terrorist groups,
place without his authorization.32 In its 2011 terrorism

report,

stated that his government would not permit the presence of illegal armed groups in Venezuelan territory. (Also see Venezuela
and FARC-Related Sanctions below.) With regard to Venezuelas relations with Iran, the State Departments 2011 terrorism report
maintained that Venezuela maintained its economic, nancial, and diplomatic cooperation with Iran as well as limited military

Obama expressed general concern about Iran engaging in

destabilizing activity around the globe, but indicated that his sense is that what
Mr. Chvez has done over the past several years has not had a serious national
security impact on us.33 This was reiterated by the then-head of the U.S. Southern Command, General Douglas

related agreements. In a July 2012 press interview, President

Fraser, who maintained that he did not see Venezuela as a national security threat, and that Irans connection with Venezuela was
primarily diplomatic and economic. Over the past several years, there has been concern among policymakers about Irans growing
interest and activities in Latin America, particularly its relations with Venezuela under President Hugo Chvez, although there has
been disagreement over the extent and signicance of Irans relations with the region. Since 2006, Iranian President Ahmadinejad
has visited Latin America several times, most often Venezuela, but he has also visited Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and

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Cuba. In 2012, Ahmadinejad undertook two trips to the region: a visit in January to Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Venezuela; and a
June trip to Brazil to attend the U.N. Conference on Sustainable Development in Rio de Janeiro (which notably did not include
bilateral meetings with the Brazilian government) along with side trips to Bolivia and Venezuela. This year, Ahmadinejad attended

Venezuela also has played a key

role in the development of Irans expanding relations with other countries in the
region.
the funeral for President Chvez who died in early March after battling cancer.

Terrorism in Mexico is growing and spreading

Sullivan and Beittel, 13 (Mark P. Sullivan and June S. Beittel, Sullivan: Specialist in Latin American Affairs,
Beittel: Analyst in Latin American Affairs, April 5, 2013, httTep://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?
article=2063&context=key_workplace)

In recent years, violence perpetrated by drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) in Mexico such
as murder and kidnapping has spiked and reached a level of brutality many analysts have
characterized as unprecedented. In the six-year term of Mexicos former President Felipe
Caldern (2006-2012), homicides related to organized crime spiked, numbering between 47,000
65,000 depending on the source. In 2012, the Calderon governments final year in office,

some analysts estimated that the high levels of homicides leveled off or declined, while
other recorded a slight increase.20 Mexico is a major transit point for the lucrative cocaine
trade and a major source and trafficking country for marijuana, methamphetamine and
heroin.21 U.S. government estimates of the annual profits derived from drug trafficking

that flow back to Mexico from the United States range between $8 and $29 billion.22
This highly lucrative market has generated fierce competition within and between the
DTOs to control trafficking routes into the United States and for a share of the growing
internal drug market inside Mexico. The Caldern administration made combating the drug
trafficking organizations its central focus, and the governments aggressive counterdrug strategy
was violently resisted. The government operations that targeted the DTOs, and that removed top
leaders or kingpins by arrest or death in arrest efforts, caused fragmentation. A handful of

larger DTOs that were dominant at the start of the Caldern administration splintered,
while two organizations became dominant. The two polarized rivalsthe Sinaloa DTO in
the western part of the country and Los Zetas in the east remain the largest drug trafficking
organizations in Mexico and both have moved aggressively into Central America. Furthermore,
the Mexican syndicates that traffic illegal drugs have diversified into other illicit activity
including kidnapping, human trafficking, robbery, extortion, resource theft, product piracy and
other crimes. Over the past several years, the DTO-related violence has involved brazen and high
profile crimes such as car bombings, deadly blockades, use of grenades, and at times even
indiscriminate attacks involving civilians, although much of the violence has been between DTO
rivals as well as engagement with Mexican security forces. Homicides attributed to the DTOs
have included beheadings, hangings, dismemberment of victims bodies, and torture. Some

observers have labeled these violent tactics as similar to those of insurgents or terrorists.
However, the DTO actions, while indeed carried out to instill fear and generate
compliance, are not paired with terrorist political motivation or intent. Rather, their
actions are motivated by a ruthless pursuit of profit. The organizations lack a religious or
political ideology with the goal of destroying the government or undermining legitimate
authority, except to continue to neutralize the governments efforts to curtail their illicit
businesses.

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Terrorism Impacts

Countless Deaths from the war on terror

Randall and Godsen 06 (David Randall and Emily Godsen, journalists for Information clearing house, 62,006-180,000- the number
killed in the war on terror/9/10/06 http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article14906.htm)

The "war on terror" - and by terrorists - has directly killed a minimum of 62,006 people,
created 4.5 million refugees and cost the US more than the sum needed to pay off the
debts of every poor nation on earth. If estimates of other, unquantied, deaths - of
insurgents, the Iraq military during the 2003 invasion, those not recorded individually
by Western media, and those dying from wounds - are included, then the toll could
reach as high as 180,000. The result is the rst attempt to gauge the full cost in blood and money of the worldwide
atrocities and military conflicts that began in September 2001. As of yesterday, the numbers of lives conrmed
lost are: 4,541 to 5,308 civilians and 385 military in Afghanistan; 50,100 civilians and
2,899 military in Iraq; and 4,081 in acts of terrorism in the rest of the world.
Economic Impacts to terrorism are enormous

DeGraw 11 (David DeGraw, journalist for Amped Status, July 6th, 2011, The War On Terror Is A $6 Trillion Racket,
With $1 Trillion In Interest Alone, Exceeding The Total Cost Of World War II, http://ampedstatus.org/the-war-on-terror-is-a-6trillion-racket-with-1-trillion-in-interest-alone-exceeding-the-total-cost-of-world-war-ii/ )
As you may have heard, a

newly released study by the Eisenhower Research Project at Brown University revealed that the
cost of the War on Terror is significantly greater than Obama has said. The little passing coverage the study received
in the mainstream press cited $3.7 trillion as the total cost, which was the most conservative estimate. The moderate
estimate, which the mainstream media ignored, was $4.4 trillion. In addition, interest payments on these costs will
most likely exceed $1 trillion, which brings the total cost up to at least $5.4 trillion.

---Oil Spills Advantage

1AC Advantage
Cuba cant drill in deep water; U.S. assistance is imperative
PION 10- Dr. Bickel holds an M.S. and Ph.D. from the Department of Engineering-Economic Systems at Stanford
University and a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering with a minor in Economics from New Mexico State University. an
assistant professor in both the Operations Research / Industrial Engineering Group (Department of Mechanical
Engineering) and the Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering at The University of Texas at Austin., THE
BROOKINGS INSTITUTION (JORGE P. 10/22/2010 "CUBAS ENERGY FUTURE: STRATEGIC APPROACHES TO
COOPERATION" http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/events/2010/10/22%20cuba
%20energy/20101022_cuba_energy )PHS
You know, the problem with writing a book is that as soon as you send it to the publisher, the world in front of you
and all the facts change. So, right away, were ready for a second edition of Cubas Energy Future since things are
changing so fast. What I would like to do, really, I would like to go over five facts or five issues that have come to
light in the last few months and I dont think that we can have a debate and a conversation if we really dont have
the five -- the facts and happenings in front of us to be as transparent as we can. So, the first question that I have
faced in the last few months is, is there oil in Cuba? I mean a very simply question. All that I can share with you is
that according to the U.S., yes. And that is the only hard geological data that we have in the public domain.
According to the USGS, there is somewhere around five billion barrels of undiscovered liquid reserves in Cubas
North Belt Thrust. Now, that is the area just around the Florida Straits and along the north coast of western Cuba.
The USGS does not address any oil in the deep waters Gulf of Mexico and in the Eastern Gap, which

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as you know Cuba eventually will have a piece of the Eastern Gap. So, again, the numbers that the USGS puts forward -- the five

billion barrels of undiscovered liquid reserves, is only in the North Belt Thrust of Cuba. When we talked to our Cuban counterparts and they add the deep waters -- the real deep waters of the
Gulf of Mexico including the Eastern Gap -- their number then increases by about 10 to 12 billion barrels. But, again, I think right now, the only number that we have to rely in front of us is the
USGS number. Theres a couple of other facts that are very important. And that is that, as you remember, Repsol did drill a well back in July of 2004. And even though they did not hit the
reservoir, the core sample of that well was very positive. Positive enough that Statoil Norsk Hydro, which as you know is Norways most important oil company, bought 30 percent of that
concession. Also, Repsol has stayed in Cuba. I mean, Repsol has spent easily over $100 million in Cuba today, including the drilling of the Yamagua Well in July of 04. As a former oil man, Ill
tell you that we just dont hang around a country because we happen to like that country. We hang around a country because there is economic potential for some benefit there. So, the fact
that the USGS -- the USGS number has certain validity. The fact that major oil companies are still in Cuba today, what we consider for actual business and economic reasons -- not for political
reasons. And the fact that now they are about to drill another well -- actually seven prospects on the island indicate to us that the potential for hydrocarbo in Cuba is over P50. In other words,
there is a probability of more than 50 percent for us to find oil in Cuba. Youre going to find folks that will say, well, thats heavy oil. Trust me, in todays market, whether its heavy or light oil
is good news. So, yes. I personally think that there is a very high probability that we are going to find considerable oil reserves in Cuba. By the way, countries like Argentina and Columbia, their
proven reserves are somewhere in the neighborhood of between four and five billion barrels. The second discussion that we hear, particularly here in Washington, is Cubas right to drill in its
own EEC. I mean, Im sorry, but Cuba is a sovereign country and Cuba has every right to drill with its economic exclusive some. The issue at hand is the demarcation line. As you know, the
Cuban Maritime Border Agreement was reached during the Carter Administration in 1977. But it was never ratified by the Senate. So there are folks in Washington that say well, we ought to

Fine. All that that agreement does is the demarcation line. So that means that within that
demarcation line, Cuba, again, as a sovereign country, has the right under the United Nations law of the sea exploit
its natural resources. The issue then comes is the argument that Cuba should not be -- should
be drilling, then I believe that those that said that ought to apply also their position to Mexico. They should also
apply their position to the Bahamas, who is about to drill in their waters. They ought to apply that position to the
Canadians who are drilling off Sable Island off the coast of Maine. So I think we have to be very careful when we go
around saying that Cuba doesnt have any right to drill in their own waters when other countries around us are
doing so, and when we, in the United States, are doing so in the Gulf Coast putting actually in jeopardy also the
environmental and the ecological arena of our neighbor countries. A third topic is Cupets experience. Well, you
know, the Cubans dont know how to drill in deep waters. Well, that is true. Cuba doesnt
rescind that agreement.

have any technical and operational experience in deep water drilling. But the Cubans are not the ones -- Cupet is

not the one going to do the drilling. Its going to be Repsol and Norsk Hydro and those type of companies that do have the expertise to drill in deep waters. The Cubans, over the last 10 years,
have gained vast amount of expertise, particularly in horizontal drilling, and because of their heavy oil reservoirs of the north coast. So the Cubans do have expertise. Do they have expertise in
deep water drilling? No, they do not. But, again, thats going to be an area that is going to be covered by companies like Repsol and Statoil Norsk Hydro. Repsol, by the way as you know, is very
active in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Late last year, Repsol just finished the Buckskin Project about 180 miles south of Houston and that project was a 28,000 feet depth project. So, Repsol and, of
course, the Norwegians have the expertise to drill. The fourth fact that I want to clarify is the talk about the Scarabeo 9 that we have all heard recently. The Scarabeo 9 is a semisubmersible
that is on its way to Cuba. Its actually now on its way from China to Singapore to finish some electronic work and then eventually from Singapore, it will move into Cuban waters we hope
sometime in the first quarter. The Scarabeo 9 is a six generation rig. The Scarabeo 9 is Norwegian design -- is owned now by Saipem, who is a division of Eni, the Italian oil company. She can
drill at about 12,000 feet of water -- total water depth. I mean total reservoir depth of about 30,000 feet. She can withstand winds of over 100 knots. This semisubmersible -- and Im not an
engineer, but it gets me excited because its a semisubmersible that has DP3, which is a positioning device that when shes anchored, theres no anchor to this semisubmersible. This
semisubmersible is actually guided by satellites and she has a number of engines and propellers underneath and that keeps her right on top of that reservoir. So its an unbelievable piece of
equipment. Also from the environmental and risk point of view, in the case of a hurricane, its very easily for the Scarabeo 9 to move out of the way, let the hurricane go by and then come back
to its position. Scarabeo 9 has room for 200 people -- 200 experts on her. Its regrettably that there wont be American oil workers on that. There will be mostly workers from the UK and
Norway operating on the Scarabeo 9. But, again, no problem with the Scarabeo 9. Two last point -- Cubas economic benefit. I mean, do we hear a lot of discussions of Cubas energy

I believe that every country has the right to be

energy independent. Just like we do, theres no reason why Cuba cannot become energy
independent. In fact, I will argue -- and Im not a political scientist -- but I will argue that for a country to
be politically mature, it cannot have any type of economic dependency on a third party. We
independence and the impact -- the political impact, the political ramifications that it could have?

know the Cuban experience during the period of the Soviet Union and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 when they were relying on Soviet oil. Certainly, we do not want that for Cuba
again. So I think that energy independent -- not only from the economic point of view, but also from the political point of view -- is extremely important for Cuba. Remember that these
agreements are a 60/40 agreement. Cubas production sharing contract agreements are 60/40. In other words, 60 percent goes to the state, 40 percent goes to the partner. They do have the
option of right of first refusal. In other words, the partner has the right to export his 40 percent equity oil, but first Cuba has the right to buy that 40 percent from the partner if it wishes to do

And Cuba will have

to be producing in excess of 200,000 barrels a day in order for get -- in order for it to get the same economic benefit
that it gets today from the 93,000 barrels a day that it gets from Venezuela. So in other words, there wont be
so. So, the timeline that Im running on this is that it will take anywhere for Cuba between three to five years to fully develop all of its North Cuba Belt Thrust.

an economic bonanza for Cuba because all that it will be doing is will be replacing one
barrel at a time that it gets from Venezuela. Ron is not here today with us -- Ron Solego from the
University of Rice that wrote another chapter on this book. But also let me tell you that Rice University has run
scenarios that in the future, under a different economic system than Cuba has today, Cubas demand -- which
today is about 150,000 barrels a day -- could double to 300,000 a day. So those of you that -- or those of us
that believe that Cuba has the potential to be a net exporter of oil, if Cubas economy rebounds, and Cuba

economy becomes a real economic engine in the Caribbean basin, Cubas oil demand could
certainly double to 300,000 barrels a day. And last is the environmental issue. Again, Im an oil man.
So, I am one of those that over the 32 years that I spent in the industry, learned early on that my business is
inherently a high risk business. Whether it is drilling, whether it is refining -- we know about Texas City. Whether
it is transshipment -- we know about the Exxon Valdez. Whether it is moving gasoline form Port Everglades to
Miami service station -- we know about the accident that happened there about four years ago when a gasoline
truck overturned and a family of four were killed. So I am the first one to recognize and bring before you that the
oil industry -- whether we like it or not -- is inherently a high risk enterprise . And what I
learned over my 32 year career is that while we have to do -- I guess not necessarily the CEO of the oil companies,
but every single employee that works for an oil company -- is to have a conscious of an

environmental concern and a conscious in which we have to act responsible at every level

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of the corporation. We need to establish with Cuba today an agreement similar to the one
that we have with Mexico, which is the MEXUS Program, which is a set of protocols
between the two countries of what to do in the case of a national emergency, in the case of
a major catastrophic oil spill. Dan is going to talk and address more of that issue, but I want to tell you that
it is imperative for the government of Cuba and for the government of the United States to
have that set of rules of what to do -- particularly now after the deep water horizon. The lessons
that we have learned out of the deep water horizons are lessons that we need to be transferring actually to our MEXUS Program, which is with Mexico -- between the United States and Mexico
-- and with Cuba. Last, the issue of a general license. Every single piece of equipment that goes to Cuba cannot be of American made. If tomorrow there is an emergency in Cuba, international
oil companies operating in Cuba do not have access to any type of equipment from the U.S. They cannot pick up the phone and call Houston and ask for whatever help they need in order to
manage an oil spill. Our friends at the State Department, which by the way are working on these issues, will say, well -- and the Treasury Department -- will say you can apply for a license. Trust

, in the case of an emergency, that particular piece of equipment that is needed -- we

dont know where its going to be, we dont know whos inventory its going to be, we dont
know in what warehouse its going to be. And what if that particular company did not apply
for a license a year ago? So I think that it is very important on the environmental arena two
things -- that the United States and Cuba sit down for a set of protocols of how to behave
and how to cooperate in the case of an emergency. And I think that it is very important for the
United States to issue a general license only in the case of a major catastrophic spill so that the
international oil companies operating in Cuba can access the technology that eventually is
going to protect not only Cuban waters that is important, but that it is also going to
protect South Florida. Thank you
me

And, Other countries fail means U.S. oil hardware is key

GOODHUE 13- editor, The Reporter
, KeysNet (DAVID G. 6/6/2013 "Last Cuban offshore oil project ending for now"
http://www.keysnet.com/2013/06/06/487368/last-cuban-offshore-oil-project.html )PHS

A Russian oil company using a Norwegian -owned drilling rig is temporarily pulling out
of Cuban waters without finding any significant sources of crude , but industry watchers say it is too
soon to dismiss Cubas offshore energy potential. The Songa Mercur was searching for oil in at least two prospects
near the Bahamas exclusive economic zone with Cuba located fewer than 200 miles from the South Florida coast.
The Cuban government announced in late May the state-run Russian company operating the rig, Zarubezhneft, was
leaving the area but would return to the same spot in 2014. The announcement has major implications for Cubas
energy future. The communist island nation is heavily dependent on imports from ally nations like Venezuela for its
oil needs. Cuba suffered a major disappointment when several countries were unsuccessful
in finding oil in the deep waters of the Florida Straits last year. The area about 70 miles from Key
West might contain large amounts of oil, but it is in very deep water, the crude is difficult to find and working in
the area is highly expensive. Operations in the Straits cost companies about $100 million each in exploratory
missions alone, said Jorge Pion, associate director of the Latin America and Caribbean Energy Program at the
University of Texas at Austin. I have been told that the oil is there, but the traps/structures are very difficult. So oil

companies are probably likely to spend their limited capital dollars in other more
promising, less risky areas (not only technical but also politically) than Cuba, Pion said in an e-mail.

They would rather go to Brazil, Angola, Alaska, U.S. Gulf of Mexico or the new growing market of shale in Argentina. The Straits exploration conducted by four
international companies on a giant Chinese-built, Italian-owned semi-submersible oil rig worried both environmentalists and critics of Cubas Castro regime. But the
operation was largely a bust and only two of the participating companies are still in the region: Malaysias Petronas and Gazprom, from Russia. Theyre operating in a
partnership and are now only conducting some seismic work, Pion said. The first company to work on the rig, Spains Repsol, closed its Cuban offices. And
Petroleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA, is going through too many financial difficulties to invest again in the risky Straits, according to Pion. The area near the Bahamas
where Zarubezhneft is exploring is much shallower around 2,000 feet below the surface as opposed to 6,000 feet in the Straits. This makes it a more attractive place
for companies like Zarubezhneft to search for offshore fossil fuels. Valentina Matvienko, speaker of the Russian Federation Council the countrys equivalent of the
U.S. Senate pledged in a May interview with Cubas state-run Granma newspaper continued investment and involvement in Cubas offshore energy projects. We are
currently negotiating a broad range of projects relating to energy, and Russian companies such as Zarubezhneft are actively involved in oil prospecting in Cuban waters,

But the company might not use the Songa Mercur when it returns, according to
oil industry sources. One of the reasons Zarubezhneft is leaving Cuba is because the rig was having equipment
difficulties. Instead, Zarubezhneft may come back in a drill ship, a traditional seagoing vessel with oil-drilling
capabilities. However, Lee Hunt, president emeritus of the International Association of Drilling
and this work is going to continue, Matvienko said.

Contractors, said finding a ship that complies with the 52-year-old U.S.-imposed trade
embargo against Cuba could be difficult. Such a vessel must have fewer than 10 percent of its parts made

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in the United States. If the ship is not compliant with the embargo, companies using it could
face U.S. sanctions. Geir Karlsen, a Songa Offshore spokesman, told The Reporter his company has no
agreement with Zarubezhneft to take the Mercur back to Cuba. Russia and Cuba are not the only countries hoping the Cuba/Bahamas
maritime border abounds with crude. The Bahamas Petroleum Co., based out of the Isle of Man, received permission to begin exploratory offshore drilling in the region
ahead of a referendum that would give Bahamians a say in the future energy development of their country. This means drilling in the Old Bahamas Channel, south of
the Andros Islands, could begin by 2014. The BPC is looking to partner with another oil company in its search for oil. The company is also seeking European investors.
Since the area is so close to the Zarubezhneft site, Russias success there could reap BPC a financial windfall. Good news in Cuba would have helped in the search for
much-needed capital and/or possible joint venture partners, Pion said. A discovery on the Cuban side would have certainly helped their development momentum.

It wont
have anything to do with Zarubezhneft, Erikssen said in an e-mail. Hunt said just because no significant discoveries
have been found off the Bahamas doesnt mean the oil isnt there. More than one U.S. wildcatter made his fortune on
the last roll of the dice, he said.
Natalia Erikssen, a BPC spokeswoman, said the company plans to begin drilling next year regardless of Zarubezhnefts success or failure in the region.

Embargo halts potential security measures

Bert and Clayton 12- Captian Bert-military fellow (U.S. Coast Guard) at the Council on Foreign Relations. Clayton
is fellow for energy and national security at the Council on Foreign Relations., Council on Foreign Relations (Melissa B.
Blake C. 3/7/2012 "Addressing the Risk of a Cuban Oil Spill" )PHS

The imminent drilling of Cuba's first offshore oil well raises the prospect of a large-scale oil
spill in Cuban waters washing onto U.S. shores. Washington should anticipate this
possibility by implementing policies that would help both countries' governments stem and
clean up an oil spill effectively. These policies should ensure that both the U.S. government
and the domestic oil industry are operationally and financially ready to deal with any spill
that threatens U.S. waters. These policies should be as minimally disruptive as possible to the country's
broader Cuba strategy. The Problem A Chinese-built semisubmersible oil rig leased by Repsol, a Spanish oil
company, arrived in Cuban waters in January 2012 to drill Cuba's first exploratory offshore oil well. Early estimates
suggest that Cuban offshore oil and natural gas reserves are substantialsomewhere between five billion and twenty
billion barrels of oil and upward of eight billion cubic feet of natural gas. Although the United States typically
welcomes greater volumes of crude oil coming from countries that are not members of the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC), a surge in Cuban oil production would complicate the United States' decades-old effort
to economically isolate the Castro regime. Deepwater drilling off the Cuban coast also poses a threat
to the United States. The exploratory well is seventy miles off the Florida coast and lies at a depth of 5,800 feet.
The failed Macondo well that triggered the calamitous Deepwater Horizon oil spill in April 2010 had broadly similar
features, situated forty-eight miles from shore and approximately five thousand feet below sea level . A spill off

Florida's coast could ravage the state's $57 billion per year tourism industry. Washington
cannot count on the technical know-how of Cuba's unseasoned oil industry to address a
spill on its own. Oil industry experts doubt that it has a strong understanding of how to
prevent an offshore oil spill or stem a deep-water well blowout. Moreover, the site where the first
wells will be drilled is a tough one for even seasoned response teams to operate in. Unlike the calm Gulf of Mexico,
the surface currents in the area where Repsol will be drilling move at a brisk three to four knots, which would bring
oil from Cuba's offshore wells to the Florida coast within six to ten days. Skimming or burning the oil may not be
feasible in such fast-moving water. The most, and possibly only, effective method to respond to a spill would be
surface and subsurface dispersants. If dispersants are not applied close to the source within four days after a spill,
uncontained oil cannot be dispersed, burnt, or skimmed, which would render standard response technologies like
containment booms ineffective. Repsol has been forthcoming in disclosing its spill response plans to U.S. authorities
and allowing them to inspect the drilling rig, but the Russian and Chinese companies that are already negotiating
with Cuba to lease acreage might not be as cooperative. Had Repsol not volunteered to have the Cuba-

bound drilling rig examined by the U.S. Coast Guard and Bureau of Safety and
Environmental Enforcement to certify that it met international standards, Washington
would have had little legal recourse. The complexity of U.S.-Cuba relations since the
1962 trade embargo complicates even limited efforts to put in place a spill
response plan. Under U.S. law and with few exceptions, American companies cannot assist the Cuban
government or provide equipment to foreign companies operating in Cuban territory. Shortfalls in U.S.
federal regulations governing commercial liability for oil spills pose a further problem. The

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Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA 90) does not protect U.S. citizens and property against damages stemming from a
blown-out wellhead outside of U.S. territory. In the case of Deepwater Horizon, BP was liable despite being a foreign
company because it was operating within the United States. Were any of the wells that Repsol drills to go
haywire, the cost of funding a response would fall to the Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund (OSLTF), which is
woefully undercapitalized. OPA 90 limits the OSLTF from paying out more than $50 million in a fiscal year
on oil removal costs, subject to a few exceptions, and requires congressional appropriation to pay out more than $150
million. The Way Forward As a first step, the United States should discuss contingency planning for

a Cuban oil spill at the regular multiparty talks it holds with Mexico, the Bahamas, Cuba,
and others per the Cartagena Convention. The Caribbean Island Oil Pollution Response and Cooperation
Plan provides an operational framework under which the United States and Cuba can jointly develop
systems for identifying and reporting an oil spill, implement a means of restricting the
spread of oil, and identify resources to respond to a spill. Washington should also instruct the U.S.
Coast Guard to conduct basic spill response coordination with its counterparts in Cuba. The United States already has
operational agreements in place with Mexico, Canada, and several countries in the Caribbean that call for routine
exercises, emergency response coordination, and communication protocols. It should strike an agreement with Cuba
that is substantively similar but narrower in scope, limited to basic spill-oriented advance coordination and
communication. Before that step can be taken, U.S. lawmakers may need to amend the Cuban

Democracy Act of 1992 to allow for limited, spill-related coordination and communication
with the Cuban government. Next, President Barack Obama should issue an export-only
industry-wide general license for oil spill response in Cuban waters, effective immediately .
Issuing that license does not require congressional authorization. The license should allow
offshore oil companies to do vital spill response work in Cuban territory, such as capping a well or drilling a relief
well. Oil service companies, such as Halliburton, should be included in the authorization. Finally, Congress should
alter existing oil spill compensation policy. Lawmakers should amend OPA 90 to ensure there is a responsible party
for oil spills from a foreign offshore unit that pollutes or threatens to pollute U.S. waters, like there is for vessels.
Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and Congressman David Rivera (R-FL) have sponsored such legislation.
Lawmakers should eliminate the requirement for the Coast Guard to obtain congressional approval on expenditures
above $150 million for spills of national significance (as defined by the National Response Plan). And President
Obama should appoint a commission to determine the appropriate limit of liability cap under OPA 90, balancing the
need to compensate victims with the desire to retain strict liability for polluters. There are two other, less essential
measures U.S. lawmakers may consider that would enable the country to respond more adeptly to a spill. Installing

an early-response system based on acoustic, geophysical, or other technologies in the

Straits of Florida would immediately alert the U.S. Coast Guard about a well blowout or
other unusual activity. The U.S. Department of Energy should find out from Repsol about the characteristics of
Cuban crude oil, which would help U.S. authorities predict how the oil would spread in the case of a well blowout.
Defending U.S. Interests An oil well blowout in Cuban waters would almost certainly require a

U.S. response. Without changes in current U.S. law, however, that response would
undoubtedly come far more slowly than is desirable. The Coast Guard would be barred
from deploying highly experienced manpower, specially designed booms, skimming
equipment and vessels, and dispersants. U.S. offshore gas and oil companies would also be
barred from using well-capping stacks, remotely operated submersibles, and other vital
technologies. Although a handful of U.S. spill responders hold licenses to work with Repsol, their licenses do not
extend to well capping or relief drilling. The result of a slow response to a Cuban oil spill would be
greater, perhaps catastrophic, economic and environmental damage to Florida and the
Southeast. Efforts to rewrite current law and policy toward Cuba, and encouraging cooperation with its
government, could antagonize groups opposed to improved relations with the Castro regime. They might protest any
decision allowing U.S. federal agencies to assist Cuba or letting U.S. companies operate in Cuban territory. However,

taking sensible steps to prepare for a potential accident at an oil well in Cuban waters
would not break new ground or materially alter broader U.S. policy toward Cuba. For years,
Washington has worked with Havana on issues of mutual concern. The United States routinely coordinates with Cuba
on search and rescue operations in the Straits of Florida as well as to combat illicit drug trafficking and migrant
smuggling. During the hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides
Cuba with information on Caribbean storms. The recommendations proposed here are narrowly tailored to the

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specific challenges that a Cuban oil spill poses to the United States. They would not help the Cuban economy or
military. What they would do is protect U.S. territory and property from a potential danger emanating from Cuba.
Cuba will drill for oil in its territorial waters with or without the blessing of the United States. Defending against

a potential oil spill requires a modicum of advance coordination and preparation with the
Cuban government, which need not go beyond spill-related matters. Without taking these
precautions, the United States risks a second Deepwater Horizon, this time from Cuba.

Cuba is a keystone environment the center of all biodiversity in the Caribbean

EDF 2k (Environmental Defense Fund, Cuba, "Crown Jewel Of Caribbean Biodiversity," Threatened, November 30,
2000, http://www.edf.org/news/cuba-crown-jewel-caribbean-biodiversity-threatened)
Our work in Cuba: A new era for ocean conservation

Cuba has one of the Caribbean's most diverse marine environments, with massive reefs
that exceed the Florida Keys and serve as spawning grounds for many species of fish.
Environmental Defense scientists and attorneys and their Cuban colleagues are working to protect these marine
treasures by reducing overfishing and helping design protected areas for marine life. In addition to publishing marine
research and building education programs with Cuban scientists, Environmental Defense will co-sponsor the Fifth
Cuban Marine Science Congress, December 4-8 in Havana. "Cuba is the Caribbean's biological crown
jewel," said Environmental Defense scientist Dr. Ken Lindeman. "With over 3,000 miles of coastline and 4,200
islets and keys ? Cuba is literally teeming with marine and terrestrial treasures . Cuba is also at a
historic crossroads: coastal development and overfishing have begun to damage these resources. Environmental
Defense and our Cuban colleagues are working to ensure Cuba's resources are preserved for future generations." In
December, 500 managers and scientists from Cuba and the rest of Latin America, North America and Europe will
gather in Havana for the Fifth Cuban Marine Science Congress to present the latest research on marine conservation.
Environmental Defense scientists and Cuban colleagues will present research on innovative designs for marine
protected areas that can benefit local fishers. Environmental Defense experts also will present lessons learned in
coastal protection along the US Atlantic coast, where water pollution, habitat destruction and overfishing also
threaten marine life. "Cuba is the environmental keystone of the Caribbean. This conference is a
crucial gathering of knowledge that can help preserve the marine treasures of the greater Caribbean for years to
come," said Environmental Defense scientist Dr. Doug Rader.

A spill would decrease biodiversity

Corn and Copeland 10- Mary- specialized in environmental matters, and following her position in Lowrys office,
prepared reports on natural resources topics for the Congressional Research Service in the Library of Congress. Ph.D. in
biology from Harvard University in 1976. Claudia- Biomedical Writing and Editing Computational geneticist (post-doc) at
University of Leipzig Molecular Entomologist (post-doc) at USDA-ARS, Congressional Research Service (Mary C. Claudia
C. 8/5/2010 "The Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: Coastal Wetland and Wildlife Impacts and Response"
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41311.pdf )PHS
Habitats such as salt marshes and mangrove forests and the biota that reside in them are subject to destruction or
alteration by oiling events.20 The degrees of impacts of oil on wetland vegetation are variable

and complex and can be both acute and chronic, ranging from short-term disruption of
plant functioning to mortality. The primary acute damage to the marshes is that plants,
which hold the soil in place and stabilize shoreline, will suffocate and die, especially if
multiple coatings of oil occur. Once vegetation dies, the soil collapses. Then the soil
becomes flooded, and plants cannot re-grow. If plants cannot re-establish, soil erosion is
accelerated, giving rise to even more flooding and further wetland loss. If oil penetrates
into the sediments, roots are continuously exposed to oil, with chronic toxicity making
production of new shoots problematic. Consequently, plant recovery is diminished, and eventually land
loss occurs. In addition to direct impacts on plants, oil that reaches wetlands also affects animals that
utilize wetlands during their life cycle, especially benthic organisms that reside in the
sediments and are a foundation of the food chain.21 20 Congressional Research Service 11 In the
Gulf, coastal saltwater wetlands and tidal freshwater wetlands are sensitive to oil, both

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immediately and in the long term.22 The severity of immediate and longer-term impacts and damages
depends on a number of factors, including the type and quantity of oil spilled (low-sulfur light crude such as that
associated with the Deepwater Horizon is considered less toxic than denser heavy crude or refined fuel oils
involved in other spills, and the quantity of oil from the current spill is believed to be the largest that has ever
occurred in U.S. waters); the condition of the oil on and below the surface, including the length of time it is in the
water before it hits land (oil weathers over time, through the natural actions of evaporation, photodegradation, and
microbial degradation, which all reduce acute toxicity); season and prevailing weather (both the natural
degradation processes and ecosystem recovery occur more rapidly in warmer climates than colder regions, but a
spill that occurs during the growing season of plants will have more severe impact than one in the fall or winter
when plants are dormant); type of shoreline and composition of vegetation (wetlands and similar fragile
environments are more at risk and more difficult to clean than harder surfaces such as sandy beaches); type of
waves and tidal energy in the area of the spill (wave energy is necessary to help move oil away from land and to
enhance the effects of chemical dispersants); and presence of dispersants (chemical dispersants are used to
enhance breakdown of the oil, but the long-term ecosystem effects of chemically dispersed oil and the dispersants
themselves are uncertain).23 Estimating Mortality The effects on wetland habitats lead directly to

effects on the animals and plants in those habitats. The federal government has the lead in
managing some categories of species, while states take the lead in the rest. Comprehensive data are
more readily available for the former, which are called federal trust species. The trust species consist of birds, marine mammals, and threatened and endangered
species. The principal federal agencies involved in managing these species are the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS, Department of the Interior) and the National
Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS, Department of Commerce). Birds Oil contamination of birds can have acute effects. If contamination of its feathers is severe, the
bird loses the feathers insulation properties and dies of hypothermia even in seemingly warm weather. 22 Maps showing the known locations of oil in the Gulf are
available at http://www.fws.gov/home/dhoilspill/maps.html. These maps are updated at intervals, as new information becomes available. 23 Testimony of Jane
Lyder, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Fish and Wildlife and Parks, Department of the Interior, before the House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Insular Affairs,
Oceans and Wildlife, June 10, 2010. The Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: Coastal Wetland and Wildlife Impacts and Response Congressional Research Service 12 Birds
are primarily affected through thermoregulatory challenges caused by oiling of plumage and through ingestion. Oil reduces the ability of bird feathers to provide
insulation, which increases their risk of hypothermia. Rate of heat loss is much higher in the water than in air, so oiled plumage is particularly problematic for birds
that must find food in the water, such as seabirds, cormorants, and grebes. Oil is most commonly ingested by birds while preening their contaminated feathers or

The president of the American Bird Conservancy stated that rescue groups are prepared
to do everything humanly possible to capture and save as many oiled birds as they can find, but there are
while feeding on contaminated prey.24

problems well beyond our abilities to mitigate or even count. In addition to the potential
catastrophic losses to shorebirds that we know to be at risk on their breeding grounds and
in the wetlands around the Gulf, the oil spill poses a serious threat to seabirds. 25 The
coating of feathers also results in loss of buoyancy, and, if severe, can cause the bird to drown and then sink. It is
this phenomenon that makes an accurate estimate of bird deaths extremely difficult. Many argue that mortality
analyses based on counts of carcasses and on estimates of the ultimate survival of oiled birds that have been cleaned
and released produce a marked undercount of actual deaths, particularly for species that forage farther offshore.
According to the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council, after the 1989 Alaska spill, the number of recovered
carcasses of birds was only a fraction of the estimated deaths: The carcasses of more than 35,000 birds

and 1,000 sea otters were found after the spill, but since most carcasses sink, this is
considered to be a small fraction of the actual death toll. The best estimates are: 250,000
seabirds, 2,800 sea otters, 300 harbor seals, 250 bald eagles, up to 22 killer whales, and billions of salmon and
herring eggs.26 The number of live but contaminated birds found in the Gulf as of August 2, 2010, was 1,643, along
with 3,271 carcasses, for a total of 4,914.27 Of the birds collected alive, 594 were released. Carcasses are stored, and
will be used as evidence in litigation concerning damage to natural resources. If no more carcasses were found, and
if the same ratio were to apply to the BP spill as in the Exxon Valdez spill, then about 23,400 bird deaths would be
expected.28 However, not only does this calculation assume (improbably) that no more carcasses will be found, but
also that the diligence and thoroughness in collecting carcasses in the Gulf is similar to the diligence and
thoroughness in Prince William Sound. Marine Mammals Marine mammals inhabiting the Gulf include manatees,
several species of whales, dolphins, and seals. These species do not have significant hair that can become oiled, but
rely on a layer of fatty tissue for warmth. However, contact with oil can cause skin irritations, perhaps leading to
infections. A more significant threat is inhalation of fumes when they surface to breathe. Moreover, their prey may
be contaminated with hydrocarbons, or the prey populations may be reduced or absent. Some of the Gulfs whales
feed by sifting large amounts of water through plates called baleen. These plates may become clogged with oil.29 As
of August 2, 2010, there were five marine mammals collected alive, and 64 dead; of the carcasses collected, 53 did
not have visible oil, and a necropsy will be needed to determine the cause of death.30 While marine mammals may
be physically capable of avoiding oil slicks, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency,

[r]esearch on dolphins in human care has shown that the animals avoid oil on the surface
of the water, however observations of wild dolphins have documented the animals

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swimming in, feeding in and socializing in oiled water during previous oil spills in the Gulf
of Mexico.31 Where a spill covers a very large area and volume of water as it does in the Gulf, the animal may
have to avoid much of its previous range. Endangered Species Threatened and endangered species living in the
wetlands and coastal areas face varying degrees of risk. Moreover, the threats to a given individual may be different
from those to a species: a breeding bird that is unable to find sufficient food to feed its young may abandon its
attempt to breed for the year, but can survive itself. The young will die without the care of the parent bird. Or the
eggs may become oiled, fail to hatch, and be abandoned. In either case, if abandonment is widespread, the damage
to the species could be severe even if all adult birds were to survive.

That causes extinction

Diner, 94 Major & Instructor, Judge Advocate General School
[David, Military Law Review, Winter]
1. Why Do We Care? -- No species has ever dominated its fellow species as man has. In most cases,
people have assumed the God-like power of life and death -- extinction or survival -- over the plants and animals of
the world. For most of history, mankind pursued this domination with a single-minded determination to master the
world, tame the wilderness, and exploit nature for the maximum benefit of the human race . In past mass

extinction episodes, as many as ninety percent of the existing species perished, and yet the
world moved forward, and new species replaced the old. So why should the world be
concerned now? The prime reason is the worlds survival. Like all animal life, humans live
off of other species. At some point, the number of species could decline to the point at which
the ecosystem fails, and then humans also would become extinct. No one knows how many species
the world needs to support human life, and to find out -- by allowing certain species to become extinct -- would not be
sound policy. In addition to food, species offer many direct and indirect benefits to mankind. 2. Ecological Value. -Ecological value is the value that species have in maintaining the environment. Pest, erosion, and flood control are
prime benefits certain species provide to man. Plants and animals also provide additional ecological services -pollution control, oxygen production, sewage treatment, and biodegradation. 3. Scientific and Utilitarian Value. -Scientific value is the use of species for research into the physical processes of the world. Without plants and animals,
a large portion of basic scientific research would be impossible. Utilitarian value is the direct utility humans draw
from plants and animals. Only a fraction of the earths species have been examined, and mankind may someday
desperately need the species that it is exterminating today. To accept that the snail darter, harelip sucker, or Dismal
Swamp southeastern shrew could save mankind may be difficult for some. Many, if not most, species are

useless to man in a direct utilitarian sense. Nonetheless, they may be critical in an indirect
role, because their extirpations could affect a directly useful species negatively . In a closely
interconnected ecosystem, the loss of a species affects other species dependent on it .
Moreover, as the number of species decline, the effect of each new extinction on the
remaining species increases dramatically. 4. Biological Diversity. -- The main premise of species
preservation is that diversity is better than simplicity. As the current mass extinction has progressed,
the worlds biological diversity generally has decreased. This trend occurs within ecosystems by of
species, and within species by reducing the number of individuals. Both trends carry serious future implications.

Biologically diverse ecosystems are characterized by a large number of specialist species,

filling narrow ecological niches. These ecosystems inherently are more stable than less diverse systems.
The more complex the ecosystem, the more successfully it can resist a stress. . . . [l]ike a net, in
which each knot is connected to others by several strands, such a fabric can resist collapse better than a simple,
unbranched circle of threads -- which if cut anywhere breaks down as a whole. By causing widespread extinctions,
humans have artificially simplified many ecosystems. As biologic simplicity increases, so does the risk of ecosystem
failure. The spreading Sahara Desert in Africa, and the dustbowl conditions of the 1930s in the United States are
relatively mild examples of what might be expected if this trend continues. Theoretically , each new animal or

plant extinction, with all its dimly perceived and intertwined affects, could cause total
ecosystem collapse and human extinction. Each new extinction increases the risk of
disaster. Like a mechanic removing, one by one, the rivets from an aircrafts wings, mankind [humankind] may be
edging closer to the abyss.

Drilling Now

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Russia drilling in Cuba now

Snytkova 13- writer/journalist, pravda.ru (Maria S. 1/3/2013 "Russia to supply Cuban oil to USA?"
http://english.pravda.ru/business/companies/01-03-2013/123941-russia_cuba_oil-0/ )PHS
Many became highly concerned last week, when it was said that Russia was forgiving Cuba nearly $30 billion of debt.
What a gesture of good will! Journalists speculated that Russia had thus received access to the Cuban shelf.
Afterwards, Russia will be able to explore and extract mineral resources in Cuban waters . As
they say, friendship and money do not mix. Why did Russia suddenly become so generous and publicly announced
the decision to write off Cuba's debt of $30 billion. According to the Kommersant, it is certainly not the matter of
forgiveness. The Russian authorities have laid the eye on the Cuban shelf, where company Zarubezhneft (Russia)
began drilling in deep areas in December 2012. This phase of the exploration of the Cuban shelf will end only in June
2013. To date, nothing has been said whether Zarubezhneft has found something or not. However, experts say that
there was obviously a good reason, for which the Russian authorities forgave Cuba the Soviet debt only a month after
the exploration works began. Apparently, in addition to fine cigars and rum, the Cubans have found something to
offer to the Russians, experts say. Print version Font Size Send to friend "The Cuban shelf is quite promising, with
a large resource base, but, for the time being, it has not been developed, so the work on the Cuban shelf bears certain
risks for both Russian and other companies, - Investkafe analyst Julia Voitovich told Pravda.Ru. - There are risks that
some geological reserves may not be confirmed. Nevertheless, I believe that it is beneficial for Russia to
participate in the development of the Cuban shelf not just to increase oil production and sales, but also
to receive additional technologies and experience on the shelf . Largely, the work of our Russian
companies abroad, including in foreign shelf projects, primarily pursues the goal to obtain technological capabilities.
And I think that from this point of view, the work on the Cuban shelf of Russia would be
interesting." Meanwhile, the Kommersant newspaper, looking ahead, wrote what place Russia can take on the
world market, should the wildest dreams come true and a significant amount of minerals is found on the Liberty
Island. If Russia finds oil there, the country may become a supplier of hydrocarbons for the
United States. Assumptions of large reserves of black gold on the north coast of Cuba first appeared in 2008.
Several companies started to explore the Cuban shelf: Venezuela's PdVSA, Petronas of Malaysia, the Spanish Repsol,
and the Russian Zarubezhneft. However, the results were bleak. Oil was not found, but Russia believed that it was
early to give up. The work that Zarubezhneft currently conducts on the shelf targets deeper parts of the coastal areas
of Cuba. The interest of the Russian company is also based on the agreement with the Cuban state company Cupet,
which both parties signed in the autumn of 2009. In this document it was said that should Russian developers find
oil, then Zarubezhneft would be entitled to share products with the Cuban state company up till 2034. Russians rigs
will not be removed from the region before summer. However, the Cuban shelf is not the most important factor
when it comes to the Cuban debt to Russia. Russia and Cuba may open a new stage of relations with
each other. During his recent visit to Cuba, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev signed ten agreements with
President Raul Castro. Incidentally, there was not a single representative of the oil sector among the Russian
delegation.

Cuba Cant Drill

Cuba cant do it properly
Scott 11- Journalist with 25 years experience covering Latam and international economic issues provides breaking
news and analysis on the region's biggest economies., LatamEnergy (Heather S. 10/28/2011 "LatamEnergy: US Embargo
on Cuba Hinders Response to Gulf Spill" https://mninews.marketnews.com/content/latamenergy-us-embargo-cubahinders-response-gulf-spill )PHS
The U.S. economic embargo on Cuba has had many unintended consequences in the half-century since it was
imposed, but since the end of the Cold War most have gone largely unremarked due to the small economic impact of
the island nation. But the scenes last year of the oil gushing into the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the Deepwater
Horizon accident, that took months to shut down, have pulled the curtain back on an unexpected danger: an oil spill
in Cuban waters within sight of Florida. The danger is acute : the first deepwater rig is steaming

its way to the Caribbean to begin drilling northwest of Cuba early next year. Energy and
environmental experts have been sounding the warning, stressing that the embargo , which
prohibits U.S. firms or American citizens from doing any business in Cuba, would prevent U.S. participation

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in the cleanup efforts for a large oil spill. Unlike the Deepwater Horizon accident, an oil spill off
Northwest Cuba would not remain relatively contained to the U.S. Gulf coast states, but instead would hitch a ride on
the fast moving Gulfstream and speed up the Atlantic Coast, soiling beaches and fisheries for hundreds of miles, with
the potential for a devastating U.S. economic impact. Many companies and thousands of ships and personnel were
enlisted in last year's disaster, most American. But none of them could help in a Cuban accident without special
permission from the U.S. Treasury, and Cuba does not have the resources or expertise to mount a
response on its own. This had not been an immediate concern since Cuba had no significant offshore drilling
operations, and none in deep water. In fact, Cuba depends on Venezuela for about two-thirds of its daily
consumption. But the country has divided its portion of the Gulf of Mexico into 59 blocks and has awarded 20 to
foreign oil firms. The U.S. Geological Survey estimate for undiscovered oil reserves in the North Cuba Basin (north
and west of the island in the Gulf of Mexico) is 4.6 billion barrels. Spain's Repsol will be the first to try to tap one of
the fields to see if it can be developed commercially, and, critically, is the only private firm on the list and one with
extensive operations in the United States as well. The strategy of many U.S. lawmakers -- driven by the Florida-based
anti-Castro lobby -- has been to try to find a way to prevent Cuba from drilling at all . The point of the
embargo, after all, is to bring about regime change through economic pressure. But there is no real way
to stop a sovereign nation from drilling in its own waters. In contrast, worried environmental

and oil industry experts are calling on the U.S. government to issue some blanket
exceptions to the embargo to allow American firms and personnel to respond quickly in the
event of a large accident. The key point is summed up in this recommendation in a report by the Center for
Democracy in the Americas: "The Obama administration should aggressively and comprehensively use its existing
licensing authority to ensure the right firms with the best equipment and expertise are in place to fight the effects of
an oil spill." The center's Executive Director Sarah Stephens told reporters in Washington recently that the
embargo "leaves us in a very risky position." Many U.S. officials in various agencies understand the
danger and "are trying so hard to do everything they can, subtly, under the radar, without making anyone angry," she
said, but warned, "That's just not good enough." At a recent hearing by the Senate Energy and Natural Resources
Committee on the dangers of oil spills in foreign waters adjacent to U.S. waters, including the Gulf and Alaska, Coast
Guard Vice Admiral Brian M. Salerno, deputy commandant for operations, discussed cooperation efforts with
Mexico, Russia and Canada. One comment on these international agreements and the priority in reacting to a large
spill, went to the heart of the matter: "Without controlling the source, you cannot get ahead of the problem, so the
facilitated movement of essential people and equipment to the source is an essential component of these
agreements," he said. This, the critics say, is exactly the problem, since U.S. equipment and personnel cannot move
into Cuba easily. Salerno tried to reassure the committee, saying, "In the event that an oil spill does occur within
Cuban waters, the Coast Guard would mount an immediate response ... . And we would focus on combating the spill
offshore using all viable response tactics." But oil industry veteran Jorge Pinon, now a visiting research fellow Latin
American and Caribbean Center at Florida International University, said only three firms, including Clean
Caribbean & Americas, have been granted exceptions to the embargo and licenses to operate in Cuban
waters, far short of the thousands of boats that would be needed in event of a large spill.
Unfortunately, for the U.S. government "the point of reference is political, not environmental ," he
said. "It is important to allow the Coast Guard to engage like they are ready to do." Instead, Pinon said Washington is
using the one bit of leverage it has: the private oil company Repsol, which not incidentally has large resources in the
U.S. Gulf waters and Alaska. Salerno and Michael R. Bromwich, director of the Bureau of Safety and Environmental
Enforcement at the Interior Department, said the government is "engaging" with Repsol to ensure the Scarabeo 9 rig
meets the best safety standards. In fact, they have taken the unprecedented step of asking for all the design details
and getting permission to inspect a foreign-built, foreign-owned rig in foreign waters. Stephens and Pinon agreed the
U.S. agencies understand the danger and would like to do as much as they can within the constraints of the embargo
to ensure a response is possible in the event of a spill, including working with Cuban officials indirectly through third
countries in international fora. (Salerno said the U.S. worked through the International Maritime Organization to
"convene a multilateral seminar this December in the Bahamas that will invite Caribbean nations, including the
Bahamas, Cuba, Mexico, and Jamaica, to discuss oil spill prevention and response issues.") "It's easier to issue 100
licenses under the table," than grant a general license, Pinon said. But he warned, U.S. officials are playing Russian
roulette. Even though Cuban officials are striving to produce the best possible regulations to defend against oil spills
-- modeled largely on the United States and others with experience -- especially to protect their tourism industry,
they do not have the resources nor the expertise to respond to a large accident, Pinon said.

The U.S. has no emergency response agreement with Cuba for oil spills.

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Stephens and Colvin 11- Sarah-Executive Director of the Center for Democracy in the Americas Jake-Vice
President for Global Trade Issues at the National Foreign Trade Council , The Hill (Sarah S. Jake C. 9/29/11 "US-Cuba
policy, and the race for oil drilling " http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/184661-us-cuba-policy-andthe-race-for-oil-drilling )PHS
To protect the national interest and for the sake of Florida's beaches and the Gulf of Mexico's

ecosystem it is time to stop sticking our heels in the sand when it comes to U.S.-Cuba
policy. Before the end of the year, a Chinese-made drilling platform known as Scarabeo 9 is
expected to arrive in the Gulf. Once it is there, Cuba and its foreign partners, including Spains Repsol, will
begin using it to drill for oil in waters deeper than Deepwater Horizons infamous Macondo well. The massive rig,
manufactured to comply with U.S.-content restrictions at a cost of $750 million, will cost Repsol and other companies
$407,000 per day to lease for exploration. They are taking this financial risk because Cuba needs the oil and its
partners Spain, Norway, Russia, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Canada, Angola, Venezuela, and possibly China
believe that drilling in waters said to contain undiscovered reserves of approximately 5 billion barrels of oil is good
business. In virtually every other country in the world, developments like these would

prompt high-level discussions about how to exploit these resources safely or to anticipate a
crisis were a disaster to strike. Experts who have studied the currents say a spill in Cuban waters
would send 90 percent of the oil into the Keys and up the East Coast of Florida. But the
embargo leaves Floridas sensitive coastal resources defenseless. Due to the fact that the
drilling involves Cuba, American companies and workers cannot lend their expertise to
what could be a risky operation. U.S. economic sanctions prevent our private sector from
helping Cuba drill safely and paralyze the U.S. government, which ought to be convening
bilateral discussions on best practices and coordinating disaster response. In fact, the U.S.
has no emergency response agreement with Cuba for oil spills. While some specific
licenses have been granted to permit U.S. firms to conduct limited transactions with Cuba, current sanctions
bar the United States from deploying the kind of clean-up equipment, engineers, spare
parts for blow-out prevention, chemical dispersants, and rigs to drill relief wells that would
be needed to address an oil crisis involving Cuba. One welcomed development came earlier this
month, when William Reilly, a former head of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and co-chair of the
Commission that investigated the Deepwater Horizon disaster, led a group of experts to Cuba to take a look at their
plans. While the administration has done well giving permission to Mr. Reilly, as well as to other experts, to
discuss the problem with Cuban counterparts, it should move more aggressively to work with the

Cuban government to cooperate on plans for safe drilling and responding to a possible
crisis. Rather than moving forward, some in the U.S. Congress would make the problem worse. Rep. Ileana
Ros-Lehtinen (FL-R), who criticized Mr. Reillys visit to Cuba as giving credibility to the regimes dangerous oildrilling scheme, has offered legislation to try and stop Repsol from drilling. Rep. Vern Buchanan
(FL-R) would deny Repsol the right to drill in U.S. waters if it helped Cuba drill in its waters. Thirty-four members of
both parties have written Repsol directly, threatening the company if it drills with Cuba. Yet this tactic cant

work . Even if they could deter Repsol from drilling which is unlikely they cannot stop Cuba and partners from
countries like China, Russia, and Venezuela, from using the rig and searching for oil. At some point, it is likely that
drilling will begin and the United States ought to do what it can to prepare for that eventuality. The U.S.

government should facilitate access by Cuba and its drilling partners to the resources they
need to drill safely. President Obama should instruct the Treasury Department to issue a blanket general license
now that would allow private industry to provide what oil expert Jorge Pion calls any conceivable response in the
event of a crisis. As we have already done with Mexico and Canada, the U.S. should join Cuba in crafting
a crisis response agreement covering on-scene coordinators , a joint response team, response
coordination centers, rapid notification protocols, customs and immigration procedures, and communications. The
plan should be written, signed, tested, and implemented as quickly as possible. Earlier this year, the Deep Water
Horizon Commission, which Mr. Reilly co-chaired, said in its final report that neither BP nor the federal government
was prepared to deal with a spill of its magnitude or complexity; that industry and policy makers were lulled by a
culture of complacency that resulted in 5 million barrels of oil being dumped into the Gulf. Having seen this

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movie once before, complacency is inexcusable. Politics should not blind Washington to the reality of the situation
unfolding off of our shores.

Cuba Would Accept US Technology

Cubans prefer U.S. technology
BENJAMIN-ALVARADO 10- Professor of Political Science University of Nebraska-Omaha, THE BROOKINGS
INSTITUTION (JONATHAN B. 10/22/2010 "CUBAS ENERGY FUTURE: STRATEGIC APPROACHES TO
COOPERATION" http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/events/2010/10/22%20cuba
%20energy/20101022_cuba_energy )PHS

Well, let me just begin by making a statement. One of the things that has been apparent over the past 10
years in talking with Cuban officials -- and both Jorge and I have had extensive opportunities to speak
directly with planning officials, officials within the ministry of basic industry and the Cupet leadership -- is that

their preferred partner is the United States. Their preferred access to technology is, you
know, is top-shelf U.S., deep water exploration technologies . That being stated, you know, its very
frustrating for them and it certainly increased the cost of their operations by having to
triangulate and, you know, to get replacement parts from places like France or Great Britain as
opposed to, you know, one phone call away and overnight shipping from Houston for some of
the replacement parts for things that are essential to that particular industry. And I think that should be, you know,
said up front. Now, the relationship with Venezuela is very interesting. And one of the things I think we have to
balance this with is that, yes, Cuba receives a lions share of its fossil fuels in terms for transportation and for energy
generation. What they produce themselves, its about 50 -- 60,000 barrels a day is primarily for industrial uses. So
their life blood is still contingent upon a relationship with Venezuela. I believe that the Cubans would prefer that it
not be that way. I think that they are looking for a more stable source. I think that they understand full
well, you know, the volatility that when it comes to dealing with the Chavez government in Venezuela -- and one
thing that I would like to remind people of is that the energy infrastructure in Venezuela itself is crumbling. They

have not maintained it to a standard that would, you know, create confidence in a lot of
people. If you want to have a stable energy supply, you need to have, you know, your bases
covered with the appropriate infrastructure. Both Mexico and Venezuela have been
suffering extensively from a lack of attention to their energy infrastructure and it poses
problems not only for Cuba, but for the United States as well. So I think that should be stated up
front. In terms of what Cuba could garner from a more, you know, cooperative type of stance from the United States,
I think Teds right. At the micro-level, we will probably continue to see, you know, incremental, very

small movements, but nothing of the radical types of steps taken in order to ensure that
the Cuban dreams can be fulfilled. I mean I attended a meeting in Mexico City in 2006 where, you
know, U.S. oil companies were sitting down at the table with Cuban officials and they were
ready to start cutting deals right there on the spot. Well obviously that never came to pass, but the fact
of the matter is there is intense interest in both sides on that area.

Embargo Key
Obama must relax the embargo to ensure oil drilling safety
Dlouhy 11- covers energy policy and other issues for The Houston Chronicle and other Hearst Newspapers from
Washington, D.C. Previously, Fuel Fix (Jennifer D. 10/18/2011 "U.S. to let American firms respond to any Cuban oil spills"
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2011/10/18/u-s-to-let-american-firms-respond-to-any-cuban-oil-spills/ )PHS

The United States is paving the way for American firms to respond to any oil spills from
drilling set to begin off Cubas northern coast later this year , an Obama administration official told
the Senate today. The decision could mean relaxing the 19-year-old U.S. trade embargo against
Cuba, which generally bars American commerce with the nation and caps the amount of American-made
components in offshore drilling vessels and other equipment at 10 percent. The federal government is

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taking measures to ensure that the appropriate private industry parties are able to
respond quickly in the event of an oil spill in Cuban waters, said Bureau of Safety and
Environmental Enforcement Director Michael Bromwich. That includes issuing licenses that would
allow U.S. companies to deploy booms, skimmers, dispersants, pumps and other
equipment and supplies necessary to minimize environmental damage in the event of a
spill. Bromwich said the Treasury Department also is weighing whether to issue export licenses to companies that
own and operate containment equipment that is designed to capture crude from blown-out underwater wells. Two
U.S. firms developed such subsea containment systems in response to last years Deepwater Horizon disasters, but
there are no others that would be readily available in case of a well blowout near Cuba. Under the embargo,
individual companies can ask the Treasury Departments Office of Foreign Assets Control for licenses to travel to or
do business with Cuba. At least three U.S. companies specializing in spill response already hold such permits, but
only one Clean Caribbean & Americas has approval to export products to Cuba. Some environmentalists and oil
industry leaders have united in pressing the administration to issue general license for a broad class of oil service
companies so they can share safety information and do business with Cuba in case of an emergency well before one
happens. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, said she was concerned that if licensing decisions are made only

after a spill occurs, on a case-by-case, day-by-day basis . . . you may see a delay in our
ability to respond quickly and address the cleanup. We have incredible assets and resources
standing by just hundreds of miles away, Murkowski said. But in the event of . . . a disaster that could
impact our shores, were kind of in standby mode. That doesnt give folks the assurance that
we would all like. Theres nothing more frustrating than knowing you have the ability to
address something but you have policies that are hanging you up. Bromwich insisted the
Treasury Department could swiftly issue licenses if the existing long-term permits arent sufficient. I dont
anticipate that would be a problem, he told the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. I have a lot of
confidence that if the existing licenses were not sufficient to enable an adequate response . . . that those licenses
would be granted very, very quickly. And Coast Guard Vice Adm. Brian Salerno said he was confident that top
officials in charge of granting those export licenses would move quickly in case of a spill. We would be very
dependent on the decisions made by the State Department and the Treasury Department regarding the ability of U.S.
companies to offer their capabilities within Cubas (exclusive economic zone), Salerno said. In our discussion with
them . . . Im very confident that people appreciate the gravity of the situation and the fact that the clock is ticking . . .
and we would need very expedient decision making. The Senate energy panel is examining the U.S. preparation to
combat oil spills in nearby foreign waters, as the publicly traded Spanish oil company Repsol prepares to drill an
exploratory well near the Florida straits. The drilling is set to begin before the end of the year, once Repsols chosen
rig, Saipems Scarabeo 9, arrives on site. Partners on the project include Norways Statoil and Indias Oil and Natural
Gas Corp. The planned drilling project just 50 miles away from the Florida coast has sparked fears about what might
happen in case of an accident, since models show that a spill in the region could send oil washing
onto southeast Florida beaches in three days. Repsol has taken steps to assure U.S. regulators it will
abide by Americas offshore drilling regulations as well as the highest industry standards, Bromwich said, adding
that the company has been very cooperative. For instance, Repsol has pledged to keep federal regulators aware of
its oil spill preparation, and recently let U.S. officials witness a table-top spill response exercise conducted in
Trinidad. Bromwich said the company also has invited U.S. agencies to inspect the Scarabeo 9 rig that would be used
at its site. Given the proximity of drilling to U.S. waters and considering the serious consequences a
major oil spill would have on our economic and environmental interests we have

welcomed the opportunity to gather information on the rigs operation, technology and
safety equipment, Bromwich said. The Coast Guard and safety bureau are planning to jointly visit and inspect
the Scarabeo 9 shortly before the semi submersible rig enters Cuban waters. Bromwich said U.S. officials would
conduct a thorough inspection of the vessel, but acknowledged that some tests of emergency equipment known as a
blowout preventer could not be conducted before it is at its final drilling site. We will do all available tests and
inspections that one can do (when) not on the site where the drilling will take place, Bromwich said. We will be
given access to all components of the rig. We will be able to do everything that we consider necessary with respect to
the blowout preventer. Bromwich conceded the inspection was not optimal, and that a better inspection (could
be done) once the rig is on site. But, he insisted, this is the best way to protect U.S. interests as best we can. The

Obama administration has so far unsuccessfully pressured Repsol to hand over its detailed
drilling plans and information about the oil and gas reservoir it will be exploring . The
company has said that information is proprietary and may be restricted from release by the Cuban government.

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We are working through those issues, Bromwich told reporters. Repsol has told us there are confidentiality
agreements that they have. The lawyers are now trying to work through those to make sure we get that info. The more
information we get the more comfortable well feel and the higher level of confidence we will have. Repsols
cooperation with U.S. regulators is tied to its American economic interests. Unlike other oil
companies planning to drill near Cuba soon, Repsol holds leases to drill in U.S. waters, opening the prospect that
Repsol could face repercussions in the United States for mistakes it makes in Cuban waters. Basically, the only
leverage we have is companies that are doing business in U.S. waters, noted Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.V. If theyre
not in our waters, we have no leverage or oversight whatsoever. We are a tremendous danger for the United States
coastline and waters. Manchin suggested the U.S. should lift some sanctions against Cuba in exchange for the
country stepping up its offshore drilling standards. We are at the mercy of the Cuban government to make sure they
do it right, and we have no hammer, Manchin said. Jorge Pinon, a fellow with Florida International Universitys
Cuban Research Institute, said the U.S. is bullying Repsol, while ignoring impending drilling by other oil
companies, such as Russias Gazprom. We cannot continue in this element of confrontation , Pinon
said. Were all in business together. The environment is all of our concern. We need to sit down and work not
in the spirit of confrontation but of cooperation. Paul Schuler, the CEO of Clean Caribbean & Americas,
insisted that more U.S. companies need pre-approval to respond to spills in Cuban waters. If there is a significant
problem in Cuba and were unable to deal with it in Cuban waters, the obvious follow on is that well deal with it in
U.S. waters, Schuler said. It is in our interest in preserving our natural resources . . . that we do something to
engage with the Cubans so we can operate there. Environmentalists and industry representatives

recently traveled to Cuba to meet with its drilling regulators and said they were impressed
by how seriously the company is addressing the issue. But Bromwich told reporters he
wasnt 100 percent sold on Cubas ability to effectively regulate offshore energy
exploration. We dont know a lot about the Cuban oversight regime, Bromwich said after the hearing. I think
the information that weve received suggests it is not highly developed.

A2 Licenses Solve

Licenses ineffective, embargo is only way

Lobe 11- an American journalist and the Washington Bureau Chief of the international news agency Inter Press Service,
Aljazeera (Jim L. 11/6/2011 "Cuba plans deep-water oil drilling"
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2011/11/201111511216261487.html )PHS
"We are extremely concerned over what seems to be a lack of a coordinated effort by the
administration to prevent a state sponsor of terrorism, just 90 miles from our shores, from engaging in risky
deep sea oil drilling projects that will harm US interests as well as extend another economic lifeline to the Cuban
regime," complained four Cuban-American congressmen in a letter to Obama earlier this week. They demanded,
among other things, that the administration investigate whether any part of the Scarabeo has been made with USorigin parts in violation of the 49-year-old US trade embargo, and whether Obamas own Interior Department may
itself be violating the law by providing Repsol with technical advice. "The administration needs to provide
answers and change course," said Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, one of the four lawmakers and chair
of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, who in September also helped persuade 35 of her House colleagues to sign a
letter to Repsol's chairman urging him to immediately halt the companys plans to drill. The signatories included
most lawmakers from Florida whose Gulf coast would almost certainly be affected by any spill originating in the
drilling area. Repsol has become the main target of Congressional opposition to the project primarily because it is the
only publicly traded company with substantial investments in the US in a multinational consortium that includes the
state oil companies of Malaysia, Brazil, Norway, Angola and several other countries. Repsol, which has issued
repeated assurances that the rig's operation and equipment will meet US standards, has agreed to permit a team from
the US Coast Guard and the Interior Department's Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) to
inspect the Scarabeo and its drilling equipment when it reaches Trinidad and Tobago later this month. While that
inspection won't be as comprehensive as Washington would like, BSEE director Michael Bromwich told a hearing of
the House Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources: "In our judgment, it's a lot better than nothing." The
administration is also using the multilateral International Maritime Organisation (IMO) to have its Coast Guard
officers sit down with Cuban and other officials from the northern Caribbean next month to discuss measures for
dealing with spills under the 1990 International Convention on Oil Pollution, Preparedness, Response and

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Cooperation (OPRC). In fact, the $750m Scarabeo is considered pretty much state of the art. It was designed by
Norwegian engineers; its structure was built in China; and it was fitted with the latest deep-water drilling technology
in Singapore. The need for cooperation But the fear of a major accident has prompted a number of

environmental groups and independent experts to urge the administration to become

significantly more engaged with both the Cuban government and all of the companies that will be
operating the rig. In particular, they want the administration to issue a general licence for US oil services
companies to work in Cuba, which would permit them to respond quickly to any spill or related emergency resulting
from drilling operations. Under the trade embargo, each company would have to apply for a special license to do so.
"We are very naive to think that, in the case of Cuba, a handful of individual exports licences
could prevent and contain a deepwater oil exploratory well blow-out ," Jorge Pinon, a former oil
executive and consultant at Florida International University, told the Subcommittee. "A general licence to export and
supply equipment, personnel and services to international oil companies operating in Cuba in the case of an
emergency is urgently needed," he stressed, noting that more than 5,000 vessels, millions of metres of booms; and
nearly eight million litres of dispersant were deployed to contain the Deepwater Horizon spill. That message was
echoed by Daniel Whittle, who directs the Cuba programme at the Environmental Defense Fund and who organised a
delegation headed by President George HW Bush's environment chief, William Reilly, that visited Cuba earlier this
year. Reilly was the co-chairman of the national commission that investigated the Deepwater disaster. "First and
foremost, the administration should take steps now to ensure that US-based companies are pre-authorised to assist
in preventing and containing major oil spills in Cuban waters," he testified. "It's critical to get US companies into the
act because of their technology, know-how, and proximity," agreed Jake Colvin, vice president of the National
Foreign Trade Council (NFTC), a business lobby that represents major multi-national corporations. " While the

administration has the authority to licence a rapid response by those companies in the
event of an accident, it hasn't yet authorised it." "The reason they're not issuing a general
licence is entirely political," according to Sarah Stephen, the director of the Washington-based
Center for Democracy in the Americas, which has lobbied against the embargo and last summer
published a booklet on Cuba's drilling plans. "The administration clearly understands the urgency here, but it's
worried about the pressure from Congress, especially from the Floridians," she said.

Licenses fail
Snow 11- OGJ Washington Editor
, Oil and Gas Journal (Nick S. 11/4/2011 "Witnesses discuss US ability to respond to oil spill offshore Cuba"
http://www.ogj.com/articles/2011/11/witnesses-discuss-us-ability-to-respond-to-oil-spill-offshore-cuba.html )PHS
The US is working with adjacent countries to develop effective responses to offshore crude oil spills that could
threaten US coasts, a US Department of the Interior official told a US House subcommittee. Other witnesses
suggested that more needs to be done, particularly in regard to Cuba . Michael R. Bromwich, interim
director of the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, told the House Natural Resources Committees
Energy and Minerals Subcommittee that the US government is in close contact with Repsol-YPF SA as it prepares to
drill offshore Cuba. The US government will use all appropriate resources and authority to respond to any spill in
Cuban or other waters. The administration has engaged state and local governments and private parties that might
be affected by such a spill to ensure awareness and mutual cooperation and the adequacy of five different existing
area contingency plans covering Florida where models predict varying probabilities of US shoreline impacts should a
spill occur at the planned exploratory drilling locations in Cuban waters, he said in written testimony for the
subcommittees Nov. 2 hearing. BSEE staff is working with the US Coast Guards Miami office to develop an
international offshore drilling response plan and will participate in a workshop about the plan, Bromwich continued.
We will continue with active support of these efforts to ensure that appropriate plans and resources are in place to
respond in a rapid and effective manner to an oil spill that reaches US waters, he said. The US Departments

of Commerce and Treasury also have a long-standing practice of providing licenses for US
companies to respond to environmental emergencies in Cuban waters. BSEE is working closely
with other federal agencies on initiatives with other countries, including Cuba, Mexico, the Bahamas, and Jamaica,
Bromwich said. More bilateral agreements More needs to be done in the way of bilateral
agreements, two witnesses testified. Jorge R. Pinon, visiting research fellow at Florida International Universitys
Cuban Research Institute, said the US has agreements of cooperation with Mexico and Canada regarding an oil spill.
Daniel J. Whittle, a senior attorney and Cuba program director at the Environmental Defense Fund, said a similar

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bilateral agreement is urgently needed with Cuba and the Bahamas. Current US policies toward Cuba allow
scientific, academic, and conservation groups to conduct on-the-ground research projects with Cuban partners and
institutions, but these exchanges generally involve nongovernmental groups and institutions. Most private
companies are prohibited from doing business in Cuba because of the embargo, Whittle told
the subcommittee. There is a narrow exception for some private entities, such as oil service companies, but they
must first apply for specific approval from the US Treasury and Commerce Departments to provide services and
export equipment to Cuba. Few oil service companies have requested specific licenses, probably
because the process is complicated and time-consuming , he said. In the event of an oil spill in
Cuban waters, this licensing process would cost precious time, Whittle said. We are very naive
to think that in the case of Cuba, a handful of individual export licenses could prevent and contain
a deepwater oil exploratory well blowout. He advocated a general license to export and supply
equipment, personnel, and services to international oil companies operating in Cuba in the case of an emergency. He
also suggested US regulators have not yet considered that Malaysian national oil company Petronas plans to drill in
Cuban waters using the same rig once Repsol finishes with it.

A2 Bacteria Good

The bacteria still harm the ecosystem

Schleifstein 13- Hurricane and environment reporter Mark Schleifstein has been with NOLA.com, The TimesPicayune (Mark S. 4/8/2013 "An explosion in oil-munching bacteria made fast work of BP oil spill, scientist says"
http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2013/04/an_explosion_in_oil-munching_b.html )PHS
Much of the oil spilled into the Gulf of Mexico after the Deepwater Horizon explosion in 2010 disappeared within
weeks of the capping of BPs Macondo well on July 15, digested by a massive explosion in oil-eating microorganisms,
said Terry Hazen, a professor of environmental biology at the University of Tennessee-Knoxville, during a Monday
panel at the national conference of the American Chemical Society in New Orleans. of oil in the Gulf from July 27 to
August 26, 2010, from aboard four research ships. Much of the oil and methane gas released by the well was
originally found to be moving in a plume 3,600 feet below the surface to the southwest of the Macondo well site. An
initial scientific paper in August 2010 concluded that the tiny droplets of oil and oily material in the plume already
were rapidly disappearing within a few days after the well was capped. Further research found that there was a 10fold increase in several types of bacteria that munch on oil molecules, Hazen said. Over time, the make-up of the
different types of bacteria changed to those that were eating different toxic chemical compounds left behind when the
oil was eaten by the first organisms, he said. While the rapid disappearance of oil was a largely

positive sign, Hazen said its still unclear whether the explosion in growth of a few oileating bacteria types might have itself disrupted the deepwater Gulf ecosystem. Meanwhile, oil
that came to the surface also rapidly exhausted available nutrients, competing with
naturally-occurring algae in the warm Gulf waters, he said. Scientists also are unsure whether the oil and its
cleanup directly affected the ecosystem before it was biodegraded and dispersed, he said. Also unanswered,
Hazen said, is how resilient the Gulf is to future combinations of hurricanes, oil spills,
floodwaters from the Midwest, and the industrial and human wastes entering the Gulf from the Mississippi and
other rivers. Similar potential good news was delivered by Gabriel Kasozi, a chemistry researcher at Makerere
University Kampala in Uganda, who has been part of a team of researchers from the University of Florida studying
the BP oil that washed into wetlands in Barataria Bay. Kasozi said that a study of an oiled patch of wetlands at St.
Maryas Point in the northern part of the bay found that key chemical constituents largely disappeared after a year of
weathering. The findings could provide some hope for state officials concerned about stubborn areas of oiled
wetlands scattered across 200 miles of Louisianas coastline. However, Kasozi pointed out that the test area was
several yards inland from the shoreline, and it was unclear whether oiled wetland grasses closer to the water line had
disappeared, as they have elsewhere. As with similar research results released in peer-reviewed scientific magazines
or at other scientific meetings, the results of the two researchers represent only small slices of the wide body of
research being conducted into the effects of the oil spill. Much of that research is being done to support the ongoing
lawsuits by the federal government against BP and other parties believed responsible for the spill, and many of the
results of that research are still being withheld from the public until the legal battle is over. In addition to the
lawsuits being heard in U.S. District Court in New Orleans, the results of those studies will be used as part of the
Natural Resource Damage Assessment process required under the federal Oil Pollution Act. Under that process, BP,

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federal agencies and the states will determine what damage was caused by the spill and come up with projects aimed
at mitigating the damage or compensating the public for lost resources.

Impact Extension

Oil spills hurt the whale population

Than 10- science writer & editor. , National Geographic (Ker T. 5/21/2010 "Oil Spill to Wipe Out Gulf's Sperm
Whales?" http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/05/100521-science-environment-gulf-mexico-oil-spill-spermwhales/ )PHS
If the Gulf of Mexico oil spill kills just three sperm whales, it could seriously endanger the long-term survival of the
Gulf's native whale population, scientists say. Right now between 1,400 and 1,660 sperm whales live year-round in
the Gulf of Mexico, making up a distinct population from other Atlantic Ocean groups, in which males make yearly
migrations. All sperm whales are considered endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. But the Gulf of
Mexico population is thought to be especially vulnerable due to its relatively small size. The whales are now at risk
from the ongoing Deepwater Horizon oil spill, because they are likely to ingest or inhale toxic crude and noxious oil
fumes. (See pictures of the oil seeping into Louisiana marshes.) "We know there's going to be some [oil]

exposure, and we know there's an endangered species. If you put those two thing together,
there is reason for concern," said Celine Godard-Codding, an environmental toxicologist at Texas Tech
University. A 2009 stock assessment report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
estimated that the potential biological removal, or PBR, level for the Gulf of Mexico sperm whale population is three.
That means the whales' long-term survival is at risk if, in addition to natural deaths, three sperm
whales a year are killed or removed by human causes . The loss of a handful of whales each year can
impact a population of hundreds, because sperm whalesespecially femalesrequire a very long time to reach sexual
maturity. Females then give birth to just three or four calves during their entire lifetimes. "They're like humans. Most
of the human population is not going to have six kids at once and do that every year," Godard-Codding said. "As

soon as we get to the level of three deaths caused by human interactionand this would
include the oil spillthat would jeopardize that particular sperm whale population. " Whales
May Be Choked, Drowned, and Poisoned Oil spills can affect sperm whales and other cetaceans, including dolphins,
in a number of ways. For starters, the marine mammals have to surface to breathe, and if they come up through an
oil slick, they can suck the toxic substance into their lungs. Also, the fumes on the surface of the water after a recent
spill can be powerful enough to knock out full-grown whales, causing them to drown. (Read an eyewitness account of
smelling the Gulf oil spill.) Finally, the oil can taint the toothed whales' preyfish and squidaffecting the whales'
diets and hurting their chances of raising healthy calves. (See pictures of a sperm whale eating a giant squid.) "The
chemicals in the oil product that move up through the food web are a great concern for us," said Teri Rowles,
coordinator of NOAA's marine-mammal health and stranding response program. Previous studies have shown that
at least some of the Gulf of Mexico sperm whales are known to hang around where the Deepwater Horizon oil rig was
located before it exploded on April 20, triggering the spill. "Between 2000 and 2005, about 300 [sperm] whales were
seen on a consistent basis right in that area," Texas Tech's Godard-Codding said. Dead Gulf Sperm Whales Hard to
Tally Some experts worry that the Gulf oil spill could be as damaging to sperm whales as the 1989
Exxon Valdez oil spill was to killer whales in Alaska's Prince William Sound. (See pictures of oil
lingering in Alaska 20 years after Exxon Valdez.) After the Exxon Valdez disaster, some populations of killer whales
were reduced by as much as 40 percent, according to a 2008 study led by marine biologist Craig Matkin of the North
Gulf Oceanic Society in Alaska. Even now, that killer whale population has yet to recover and will likely go extinct in
a few decades, Matkin said. "We lost so many females out of that group that they couldn't catch up again. They still
haven't caught up," he said. If the current oil spill causes more than three Gulf sperm whale
deaths this year, it could push that group into the "red zone," Matkin said. Whether marine
mammals are being affected by the Gulf oil spill is unclear. Oil is a suspected factor in the stranding of several coastal
bottlenose dolphins (picture), but a firm link has yet to be established, NOAA's Rowles said. "Deep-diving whales,
like sperm whales living away from the shore"and thus closer to the main body of the oil slick"certainly have been
exposed," she added. Finding dead or affected whales will be difficult, however, because the animals spend most of
their time underwater, and their bodies do not often wash ashore. "In the aerial surveys that are being performed as
part of the cleanup and marine-mammal observations, we are requesting that people report dead floating whales,"

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Rowles said. "That would be the most likely way we would detect dead sperm whales."

Spill would kill the sea otter, a keystone species

RODGERS et. Al. 05- Stimson Bullitt Professor of Environmental Law, University of Washington. Professor
Rodgers teaches environmental law, law and biology, and oceans and coastal law. His research interests include the
subjects of law, biology, human behavior, and environmental law in Indian country., Alaska Law Review
(WILLIAM RODGERS, J.B. CROSETTO III, C.A. HOLLEY, T.C. KADE, J.H. KAUFMAN, C.M. KOSTELEC, K.A.
MICHAEL, R.J. SANDBERG, J.L. SCHORR 2005 "THE EXXON VALDEZ REOPENER: NATURAL RESOURCES
DAMAGE SETTLEMENTS AND ROADS NOT TAKEN" Lexis )PHS
The EVOS Council says that "Intertidal Communities" are recovering in the wake of the spill n425 and has its own
criteria for ascertaining full recovery. n426 The intertidal zone is comprised of beaches and nearshore, sub-tidal areas
that play a vital role in maintaining the ecosystem of Prince William Sound. n427 If this regime is not recovered - and
it is not - the legal case for the Reopener is established. [*197] Twelve years after the Exxon Valdez oil spill, the
Alaska Fisheries Science Center conducted a study and found, quite amazingly, that Exxon Valdez oil was highly
persistent: "Although the volume of oil has declined considerably, our study suggests the area of oiled beach has
probably changed little since 1992." n428 This oil persistence study found oil on seventy-eight out of ninty-one
beaches selected randomly based on previous exposure to EVOS oil. n429 The study evaluated an area of 11.3
hectares and estimated "conservatively" that there were 55,600 kilograms of subsurface oil remaining. n430 "These
results indicate that oil from the Exxon Valdez remains by far the largest reservoir of biologically available polycyclic
aromatic hydrocarbons on beaches impacted by the spill and that biota dependent on these beaches risk continued
exposure." n431 The spill impacted portions of the 1,400 mile coastline in Prince William Sound, on the Kenai and
Alaska peninsulas, and in the Kodiak Archipelago. n432 The flora and fauna of the intertidal zone suffered significant
impacts from the spilled oil and the subsequent clean-up efforts. n433 Within a few years, algal coverage and
invertebrate populations returned to densities and abundances like those observed in unoiled areas. n434 Despite
this recovery, there continues to be large fluctuations in algal coverage in the areas impacted by the oil spill.n435
Specifically, Fucus gardneri populations (a perennial brown seaweed known as rockweed or popweed that dominates
the intertidal) continue to be unstable as a result of the spill and more recent natural events. n436 Additionally,
through 1997, [*198] studies have confirmed that populations of invertebrate mollusks and annelid worms on oiled
and washed beaches are much less abundant than those on comparable unoiled beaches. n437 In comparing oiled
sites with unoiled reference sites, scientists documented a reduced abundance of many species of algae and
invertebrates in areas impacted by the spill. n438 For example, the oil spill contributed to a reduced abundance and
reproductive potential of the common seaweed, Fucus gardneri, and its place was superceded by "more
opportunistic" species such as barnacles, oligochaete worms, and filamentous brown algae. n439 Intertidal
communities are ecologically important and serve as subsistence resources for a variety of species, including sea and
river otters, black oystercatchers, harlequin ducks, and pigeon guillemots. n440 Of critical importance to intertidal
communities is the full recovery of Fucus gardneri populations, which provide cover for many invertebrate
populations. n441Fucus' recovery has been hindered by the unexpected persistence of subsurface Exxon Valdez oil in
the middle and lower intertidal zones. n442 Based on the lack of full recovery of some soft-sediment intertidal
invertebrates and the role of residual oil in initiating Fucus population instability, the intertidal communities are not
recovered. (v). Sea Otters. Sea Otters are deemed "recovering" in the August 2002 Status Report. n443 They are not
recovered. Though the total number of sea otters killed by the oil spill is unknown, acute loss is estimated in the range
of several thousand. n444 The sea otter population is probably increasing today in Prince

William Sound. n445 But sea otters in the most heavily oiled areas still face [*199]
significant recovery problems. n446 Knight Island, which suffered heavy oiling and the highest otter
mortalities after the spill, showed no increase in the population as of 2000, due to low juvenile survival rates. n447
Oil persists on the beaches and is ingested by the otters during foraging activities; "progress toward recovery ... is
evident, but that in areas where initial oil effects were greatest, recovery may be constrained by residual spill effects,
resulting from elevated mortality and emigration." n448 Until the sea otters begin to recover in the areas most
severely impacted by the spill, the population should not be listed as "recovered" by the EVOS Council. The sea

otter is a keystone species because it helps keep other species under control in nearshore
communities. n449 Given the importance of the intertidal community to the health of sea otters, and the critical
importance of sea otters in the Prince William Sound ecosystem, it is clear that this species cannot be
considered fully recovered from the effects of the oil spill. More effort needs to be taken to speed the
otters' resurgence. 3. Are These Losses "As a Result" of the Oil Spill? All losses depicted above - and many more not

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discussed here - are linked to the oil spill. The Peterson study of long-term ecosystem responses shows how far the
science of oil-spillcausation has progressed since 1989. n450 For some species, lingering consequences

show up as health effects; for others, population numbers are down. For the orcas of Pod
AT1, the "result" of the oil spill may very well be extinction . n451 For many species, the habitat that
was lost to the oil spill remains lost. A 2004 study n452 sponsored by the EVOS Trustee Council [*200] "found some
form of oil at 86% of the beaches [visited] and on 93% of the combined beaches of categories I and II." n453 The
study used a random sampling approach "to provide a quantitative, probability-based estimate of the amount of oil
remaining." n454 The study sampled three categories of beaches: (I) those that were "heavily oiled" at any time
during the period from 1990-93; (II) those that were "moderately oiled" at any time during the same period; and (III)
those that were heavily oiled in 1989 but had only light or no oil impact during subsequent years. n455 The total
length of beach sampled was 116.6 kilometers (approximately 72.5 miles). n456 A grid was laid out on each beach
tested and was searched visually for evidence of surface oil. n457 Each oil patch was then classified according to types
like "asphalt pavement/mousse," "surface oil residue," "tar balls," "coat," or "oil film." n458 Oil visually evident
within the uppermost five centimeters (two inches) of a beach surface was considered "surface oil." n459 Test pits
were dug to a depth of 0.5 meters (1.6 feet) to evaluate the presence of subsurface oil. n460Chemical analyses of oil
found were compared to chemical "fingerprints" of Exxon Valdez oil, and to samples originating from known
contamination released during the 1964 earthquake ("Monterey Formation" asphalt). n461 The results of the study
show that the distribution of detected oil among the sampled beaches was highly variable. n462 Segments that were
within sheltered embayments receiving the brunt of the initial oil landfall were the most heavily impacted. n463
Persistent oil was also found on beaches with surface armoring of boulder or cobble, nearly level slopes of the middle
intertidal, or a bedrock platform overlaid with sediment veneer. n464 Again, some form of oil was found at nearly
90% of the beaches visited, and on over 90% of the category I and II beaches. n465 Surface oil was found in all [*201]
three categories. n466 The estimate of beach area contaminated by subsurface oil was 7.8 hectares (19.3 acres). n467
Subsurface oil was most often found in the lower tidal elevations of the sampling grid. n468 All of the subsurface oil
was consistent with Exxon Valdez oil, and was usually less weathered than surface oil samples. n469 Monterey
Formation oil was usually found above +3 meters (9.8 ft) tide height, typically in the form of flattened tar balls
adhered to cobbles and boulders, or occasionally as small tar mats. n470 Petroleum derived from the Monterey
Formation was estimated to account for less than 10% of the surface oil encountered. n471 The researchers did not
find evidence that the oil found during the study originated from any other anthropogenic sources. n472 The study
suggested it underestimated the area of oil-con-taminated beach. n473 Though the volume of oil mass has fallen, this
study suggests that the area of oiled beach has changed only slightly since 1992. n474 "Although the oil remaining is
only about 0.14-0.28% of the volume originally beached, the decline was most rapid during the first few years."
n475Subsequent annual loss is estimated to be 20-26%, which is "substantially slower than anticipated." n476 4.
Could the Long-Term Adverse Effects Reasonably Be Anticipated by the Trustees? The state of knowledge at the time
of the Exxon Valdez settlement is best confirmed by the actions of the principals; for instance, in 1991 Exxon assured
Judge Holland that [*202] Prince William Sound was "well on the way" to recovery. n477 The Reopener was only a
hedge against the improbable. Books would later be written on how nature could quickly rebound from traumas like
the oil spill of the Exxon Valdez. n478 This confidence unraveled relatively quickly. The cascades of unanticipated
consequences came post-settlement, such as the 1992 and 1993 collapse of pink salmon runs, the first population
collapse of Pacific herring in 1993, the 2001 documentation of the extent of buried oil, and a number of other
developments. n479 The Trustee Council has admitted that many of the long-term effects of the oil spill were not
known (and could not have been known) at the time of the settlement: Many of the resources affected by the spill
had limited or no recent data on their status in 1989. In addition, some of the available pertinent data was the result
of limited sampling and had wide ranges in the population estimates. Having such patchy data on resources made it
difficult to accurately assess initial injury ... . Since the Exxon Valdez oil spill affected an area rich in wildlife and was
so well studied, it would not be surprising that there are findings without precedent in the scientific literature on oil
effects. One example of such an unprecedented effect is the sensitivity of Pacific herring and pink salmon to low
concentrations of weathered oil. n480 Other examples are explained below. All of them support triggering the
Reopener to combat the unanticipated and lingering effects of the Exxon Valdez oil spill.

Economy Add-On

A spill would destroy the border economy

Pratt 10- ArcUser Editor, ESRI (Monica P. 2010 " Simplifying Situational Awareness "
http://www.esri.com/news/arcuser/1010/files/pelicanrescue.pdf )PHS
Response to the Deepwater Horizon incident, the largest oil spill in United States history, was aided by the most

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extensive deployment of field GIS for any disaster. For the first time, responders using ArcGIS Mobile had one
simplified process that provided bidirectional situational awareness to all responding agencies in near real time. On
April 20, 2010, an explosion on the Deepwater Horizon oil drilling rig, under lease to BP p.l.c., killed 11 platform
workers, and sank the platform, leaving the Macondo well gushing oil from the seafloor. The well, located
approximately 41 miles off the southeast coast of Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico, leaked an estimated 4.9 million
barrels of crude oil before the wellhead was capped. An Immediate Threat The shorelines of the states bordering
the Gulf of MexicoAlabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texaswere vulnerable to the effects of the
growing oil slick. The speed of wind and ocean currents, the type of oil spilled, and temperature can affect the rate at
which oil spreads. However, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National
Ocean Service Office of Response and Restoration, under most conditions within minutes or hours, even very heavy
oil can spread until it is "as thin as a coat of paint on the wall." The effects of an oil spill on the

environment depend not only on how much and where oil was spilled and how far it has
spread but also on what kind of oil was spilled . This spill involved crude oil, which can cause long-term
contamination to intertidal areas and can severely impact waterfowl and mammals. Shoreline habitat, fisheries,
and wildlife in states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were immediately threatened by the
spill. Previous accidental oil releases in the Gulf have directly impacted blue crabs, squid,
shrimp, and other commercially important aquatic life as well as wildlife that can be adversely
affected by direct contact with oil. Populations of some wildlife species in the area were under pressure before the
spill. For example, all five species of Gulf Coast sea turtles are listed as threatened or endangered. To prevent the loss
of all this year's hatchling sea turtles, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), NOAA's National Marine Fisheries
Service (NOAA-Fisheries), and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWCC) jointly developed a
plan that is relocating 700 sea turtle nests. Of the many species endangered by the oil spill, the situation of the
Brown Pelican is particularly poignant. The Louisiana state bird, Pelecanus occidentalis had just made a remarkable
comeback from near extinction as the result of widespread use of the pesticide DDT in the 1950s and 1960s and
habitat pressure caused by the erosion of wetlands. In November 2009, it was taken off the endangered species list.
After the spill, birds were again endangered by the volatile compounds in oil that can cause respiratory and digestive
ailments, particularly in young pelicans. While dead and dying sea turtles and pelicans vividly

illustrate the effects of direct contact with oil, other effects from oil spills are less apparent
and more long term. Toxins in oil can cause genetic damage, liver disease, cancer, and
reproductive and developmental conditions that impair fish and other animals. Soil in areas
where plants die from exposure to oil can become destabilized, leading to erosion. Effects on
animals can also result from compromised habitat, altered migration patterns, decreases in available food, and life
cycle disruption. . The spill also endangered the economic well-being of the human

residents of these states, an area still recovering from the devastating effects of
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. Oily coastal waters and beaches threatened two major industries
in the region: commercial seafood and tourism. The Gulf supplies the nation with crab, shrimp,
oysters, and crawfish, while the tourist and recreation industry employs hundreds of
thousands of area residents. Urgent Response Required To minimize these adverse effects, rapid response
to the oil spill was essential. A unified command was established to manage response operations and link responding
organizations. Fifteen federal agencies, including NOAA, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the U.S.
Coast Guard, and the Department of Homeland Security were involved in response along with numerous state and
local agencies from the five states bordering the Gulf. Thousands of vessels and tens of thousands of personnel have
been involved in the Gulf response and mitigation efforts. Esri's disaster response team was providing assistance
software, technical support, GIS data, and personnelto local,state, and federal government agencies as well as
private-sector organizations. (For more information on other aspects of Esri's involvement, see "GIS Used to
Respond to Oil Spill Disaster: Esri Provides Software, Services, and Around-the-Clock Support." Esri also created an
interactive social media map application that not only showed the current location of the oil spill but also let visitors
add links to online photos, Web sites, and YouTube videos related to the spill. Mobile GIS Added to Response
Efforts While BP was convinced that a mobile solution could help coordinate these efforts, it was not confident that
communications could be adequately handled over a five-state area. Esri wildland fire specialist Tom Patterson, a
member of Esri's response team who has been using mobile GIS for emergency response since 2000, was sent to
support mapping of the oil slick's impact on the environment and coordinate mitigation efforts using mobile GIS.
Although cellular connectivity was now available in much of the deployment area, Patterson knew wireless

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communication would be essential to effectively carry out both missions. He also knew that Inmarsat's Broadband
Global Area Network Service (BGAN) had been used in Haiti disaster relief efforts. He took a BGAN terminal
supplied by Inmarsat service provider Remote Satellite Systems. The terminal accessed the BGAN mobile service,
which provides simultaneous voice and broadband data capabilities. Esri staff, called in to support the federal
incident command post at Houma, Louisiana, created a focused ArcGIS Mobile application for mapping oil
barricades. After an initial proof-of-concept phase, BP purchased 300 Trimble handheld devices for use in spill
response. Patterson conducted brief training sessions for the Louisiana National Guard, U.S. Coast Guard, and U.S.
Fish and Wildlife response teams that would be using the mobile units and ArcGIS Mobile application. Field teams
used BGAN to synchronize data with Esri's servers in Redlands, California. Protecting Vulnerable Shoreline After it
was clear the oil spill could not initially be stopped, Louisiana's governor Bobby Jindal called out the Louisiana
National Guard to protect sensitive species habitat. When dealing with the oil from spills, responding agencies

have three strategies: contain it using barriers; disperse it with the help of chemical
products; and remove it from the water through burning, filtering, and/or collecting oil . The
Louisiana National Guard was tasked with placing booms that would contain, deflect, and hold back the growing oil
slick. Booms are tubular floating barriers that can be made of porous material to absorb as well as contain oil. In
addition to booms, sandbags, and HESCO baskets (deployable jetty structures made of mesh front and filled with
rocks) were put in place by the guard. Planners and incident commanders needed access to current information on
the type and location of the barriers being deployed along the beaches in various counties and parishes to stop oil
from reaching the shore. This was a formidable task, given the Gulf's approximately 47,000-mile U.S. coastline (a
figure that includes the shores of barrier islands, wetlands, inland bays, and inland water bodies that was developed
using mean high water line digitized from NOAA's nautical charts). As of the end of August, approximately 1.81
million feet of containment boom and 9.16 million feet of sorbent boom had been deployed. Response crews from
various federal and state agencies and teams within BP used mobile units and ArcGIS Mobile to collect data about the
location and condition of booms and other barriers. The Alabama Marine Police used Panasonic Toughbooks
mounted in their boats to map booms that had been deployed. Subsequently, booms were mapped as they were being
deployed, eliminating the need to revisit sites. Using the BGAN network, maps, data, images, and video were
transmitted to Incident Command. This gave command staff a very high level of situational awareness. They could
view information on the placement of barriers in near real time. In addition to monitoring where barrier devices were
being placed, the mobile data collection also helped with staffing because the information on the personnel deployed
was so current and widely available. Recording Survey Information Areas contaminated by oil spills are surveyed to
determine the best response strategies. That survey information is gathered by Shoreline Cleanup and Assessment
Technique (SCAT) team members who record this information on standard SCAT forms. Esri's ArcGIS Mobile team
created a data model for the short version of the SCAT form for use by responders with GPS-enabled handheld
mobile devices. The intelligence in the data model was directly leveraged through an application developed in a
prerelease version of ArcGIS Mobile 10. Responders could use the GPS capabilities of the mobile device to capture
segment lines and zone points. The application was used to fill out a form that meets SCAT specifications and
transmit this data to the command center via a wireless connection. Simple to deploy, the application was well
received and required little or no training for the responders using it. USFWS staff used the application to document
oiled birds and other species recovered in Louisiana marshes. Pelican rescue efforts were representative of these
activities. Approximately 15 to 18 oily pelicans were captured every day and transported to rehabilitation centers so
wildlife biologists could work on them. As of mid-July, 681 pelicans had been rescued. Mapping the locations where
pelicans were captured updated previous wildlife surveys, identified breeding areas, and supplied baseline data for
comparing the recovery of the species in succeeding years. After cleanup, healthy birds were released in Florida,
Texas, and western Louisiana. A Breakthrough "The big difference between this event and others I have been
involved in was the scale of the event and the ability to provide real-time situational awareness bidirectionally," said
Patterson, who has been involved in public safety for more than 30 years. In previous response efforts, GPS units
were used for collecting locations. That information had to be uploaded somewhere separately later and incorporated
into a map, then pushed out or printed to update other people in the effort. "The ArcGIS Mobile solution is seamless
and immediate," he said. Although ArcPad 8 allows updating of the server from the field, it is designed for
knowledge users who are conducting ad hoc projects. ArcGIS Mobile was selected because it was a simpler solution
that allowed one application to be used for multiple projects. ArcGIS Mobile can be customized with extensions
tailored to the needs of each responding agency. These applications can be configured to monitor field-workers,
enforce validation on fields, attach cabinet (CAB) files and photos to reports, and post data automatically back to the
server. With ArcGIS 10, "We could sync from anywhere using the BGAN network," said Patterson. The Spatial Flex
viewer, an out-of-the-box solution that comes with ArcGIS Server, was used for displaying current maps at daily
briefings. The ability of everyone in a five-state area to see the same information at the same time was a big

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advancement. With the combination of ArcGIS Mobile and BGAN, these capabilities can be supplied in one simplified
process. Patterson believes these new capabilities have important implications for emergency response efforts.
Because real-time information about the incident can be made available to everyone working on an event, they can
interact as needed, not just at daily briefings. The 12-hour cycle for incident control can be modified and a new
paradigm adopted that keeps options open and increases the potential for better decisions and more effective
response. Extending the Role of Mobile GIS For many years, GIS has played a pivotal role in disasters like the Gulf
of Mexico oil spill. Remediation efforts for one of the most well-known accidental oil releases, the 1989 Exxon
Valdezspill, were aided by GIS. This technology has played a key role in managing and analyzing data for oil spill
restoration projects. With the introduction of ArcPad a decade ago, ArcGIS was expanded to include the mobile
platform, which has been especially valuable to emergency management. With ArcPad, GIS professionals and trained
volunteers involved in emergencies could access and collect georeferenced data in the field using GPS-enabled
handheld devices. However, the use of ArcGIS Mobile in the Deepwater Horizon incident represents a milestone in
the extension of GIS in the field. Simple, focused applications that were rapidly deployed and centrally maintained let
responders from the Louisiana National Guard, USFWS, and other agencies immediately and rapidly gather
georeferenced data with little or no training. With the addition of BGAN, which supplied wireless connectivity,
information on the rapidly evolving event was quickly and easily shared with all agencies involved, helping organize
protection and cleanup efforts and providing a common operational picture in near real time.

A spill would destroy Floridas tourist and fish based economy

Peterson et. Al. 12- Whittle-J.D. Rader-Ph.D., Biology, University of North Carolina;
M.S., Zoology, University of Washington. Chief Oceans Scientist, Environmental Defense Fund (Emily Peterson, Daniel
Whittle, Douglas Rader 2012 "Bridging the Gulf" http://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/EDF-Bridging_the_Gulf2012.pdf )PHS
As demonstrated by the Deepwater Horizon Gulf of Mexico oil disaster of 2010, the Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska in
1989, and Mexicos 1979 Ixtoc I well blowout, deepwater drilling is inherently risky. Even companies

using the most sophisticated, cutting-edge technology with highly skilled personnel
experience oil spills and accidents that threaten human lives, economies, and the environment. In fact,
the Deepwater Horizon accident resulted in extensive oil pollution of roughly 200 miles along the edge of the Cuban
EEZ, and very nearly led to U.S.-drilled oil befouling important and valuable Cuban beaches, reefs, seagrass beds,
and mangrove swamps.36 The only factor that prevented an international incident was the chance timing of the
central Gulf Loop Current gyre formation, which interrupted the delivery of oil down current as far as the Florida
Keys. As Cuba proceeds with plans to explore its deepwater offshore oil fields, the risk of a

potential oil spill in Cuban waters impacting U.S. marine and coastal resources is similarly
worrisome. Significant oil spills from exploratory wells are not without precedent: both the BP Deepwater
Horizon and Ixtoc I spills resulted from exploratory well blowouts. Experience from past disasters highlights that
oil spills do not adhere to political boundaries and that advanced planning and cross-border cooperation are pivotal
for mounting a timely, coordinated response strategy. Projected trajectory of a spill In assessing the
potential threat to U.S. shores, many often reference that Key West, Florida is a mere 80 miles from the
Jaguey prospect site where Repsol drilled in Cubas EEZ, north of Havana, in spring 2012.37 In fact, several other
factorssuch as the prevailing ocean current, wind direction and velocity, water
temperature, and type of oil spilled also play critical roles in determining the direction
and speed of spilled oil. Thus, despite the geographic proximity ofthe ecologically valuable Florida Keys to
the rig site in Cuba, scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimate that
the probability of oil traveling from a potential blowout at the Repsol rig site to the Florida Keys was comparatively
low.38 Doug Helton, operations coordinator for the office of response and restoration at NOAA, emphasized that
the dominance of ocean currents can trump distance in influencing the direction of an oil slick. The currents are
like a conveyor belt at the grocery store, he told The Miami Herald. 39 Oil moves at 2 to 3 percent of the wind
speed. It moves at 100 percent of the current speed. Due to the powerful Gulf Loop Current, it is more likely that
oil spilled from a rig site in Cubas EEZ could travel to the eastern shore of Florida and up the southeast Atlantic
coast, in addition to threatening Cubas North Coast, Cay Sal Banks (the third largest bank of the Bahamas), and the
Bahamas proper. In preparation for Repsols exploration project in 2012, NOAA generated computer tracking
models to assess the threat to U.S. coasts and shorelines from deepwater drilling off the coast of Cuba. NOAA
selected 20 potential deepwater drilling sites from the western region of Cuba to the Bahamas. The model was run
using 200 different spill scenarios based on a variety of ocean current and weather conditions. According to the

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agencys first study of a hypothetical spill from 13 Environmental Defense Fund / edf.org a deepwater well site
offshore of Cuba, the area at highest risk of shoreline impact could be the eastern

shore of Florida. 40 Areas as far north as Charleston, South Carolina could face potential shoreline risk,
though the modeled scenario predicted a lower likelihood of oiling for shorelines north of the Florida border.41
While areas at risk of immediate impact appear to be those along the Straits of Florida and U.S. south Atlantic
coast, scientists are careful to note that the models are far from precise, authoritative forecasts. NOAA specialists
themselves emphasize that the models vary significantly based on weather data and location of the drilling site.
Richard Sears, who served as chief scientific advisor on the federal commission that investigated the Deepwater
Horizon disaster, stressed there was significant uncertainty in projecting the path of the BP oil slick in 2010, even
with the combined technical expertise of federal agencies and private companies.42 There were a wide array of
models surrounding the BP spill, ranging from most of the oil projected to come ashore to Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and Floridato a significant portion going out through the Straits of Florida and up the East Coast
towards North Carolina, Sears said in a personal interview. Neither of those happened.43 Sears described the
added complexity of estimating the oils vertical movement. There were a lot of surprises with Macondo about
where the oil went, Sears explained, not only in two dimensions, but also in terms of three dimensional impacts
within the water column.44 Preparing for a potential spill in Cubas EEZ highlights the
underlying uncertainty in predicting the trajectory of a spill, particularly with regards to possible
shoreline impacts and biological threats within the water column and on the seafloor. This lack of
predictability reinforces the importance of opening lines of communication and
expanding U.S.-Cuban cooperation to ensure that any containment and response strategy
would be implemented effectively using the most timely incident updates. Shared
environmental resources at risk If a spill were to occur in Cuban waters, marine and coastal
resources of the United States, Cuba, and the Bahamas could be placed at significant risk .
Fisheries, coastal tourism, recreation, and other natural resources-based enterprises and
activities in the region could experience adverse impacts on the scale of weeks to years, or
even decades. Multiple factorsincluding the type and amount of oil spilled, the environment in which the oil
spilled, and prevailing weather and ocean current conditionswould play key factors in determining the extent and
gravity of a spills impact.45 In Cuba, marine and coastal habitats could suffer substantial long-

term harm which could degrade, in turn, entire populations and habitats downstream in
the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. According to Dr. John W. Tunnell, Jr., associate director of the Harte Research
Institute and an expert on the Gulf of Mexico marine environment, the primary three habitats at risk on
Cubas North Coast near the area where exploration is occurring are coral reefs, seagrass beds, and
lush mangrove forests.46 These habitats are found throughout the region, but in greatest abundance in the
Archipelago Sabana-Camaguey and the Archipelago Los Colorados, where they provide breeding,
nursery, and feeding habitats for commercial fish species, including grouper, snapper,
and grunts. If chemical dispersants were used as part of the clean-up effort, they could reduce impacts on fauna
for which oiling per se is the greatest threat (e.g. birds) but also add additional toxicity, as well as alter the transport
and ecological fate of oil constituents moving through the water column and then into the air or back towards the
bottom. Dispersed oil could have greater deleterious effect on Cubas coral reefs, which are fragile, slow-growing,
and have low resilience to physical and chemical stresses.47 Like salt marshes, coastal mangrove swamps are also
difficult to clean up in the aftermath of an oil spill, and mangroves can die within a week to several months as a
result of oil exposure.48 Reduced from their formerly healthy, vibrant state, such important habitats could lose
their ability to support the fisheries and marine life that depend on them. Oil toxicity and physical
contamination can also have profound effects on individual organisms. The news media often
draw attention to charismatic marine life, such as dolphins and sea turtles, which are closer to shore and can
experience heavy oil coating during a spill. However, less visible organisms such as surface-floating larvae, middepth scattering layer organisms, and benthic organismsincluding coral reefs, but also soft-sediment
communitiesare equally, if not more, vulnerable. A significant spill in Cubas waters could impact larval

populations of lobster, grouper, snapper, and other reef fishes that traditionally mature
in the Nearshore habitats along Cubas northern coast provide breeding and nursery grounds for
juvenile reef fishes.`5 Environmental Defense Fund / edf.org waters of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and south
Atlantic, as well as those that have key spawning grounds in the Gulf itself (including Atlantic bluefin tuna). The
ecological linkages between Cuba and the United States are brought into clear focus when considering the

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environmental resources that would be at stake in those two countries in the event of a spill . In the same way

that Cuban officials expressed serious concern about potential impacts to Cuban waters
from the BP Deepwater Horizon spill, Floridians are deeply worried about potential
damages to their communities and natural environment. Migratory species that normally travel
freely between Cuban and U.S. territory including bluefin tuna, whale sharks, and birds along the East Coast
flyaway could suffer from oil exposure during a significant spill incident. One problematic limitation in
evaluating natural resources at risk in Cubas watersand the subsequent risk to the U.S. environmentis the lack
of sufficient baseline scientific knowledge. Detailed geological and environmental conditions are not fully
understood in many parts of the Caribbean.49 For example, petroleum-eating microbes exist in high concentrations
in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and may help mitigate environmental damages during spills and natural seepages,
although the ecological cascades unleashed by altered biomass, dissolved oxygen, and acidification patterns remain
unknown. It is not known if such oil-eating bacteria also exist in substantial numbers in Cuban waters and would
possibly modulate damages to natural resources there. Economic assets at risk The intertwined

relationship between coastal economies and the local environment illustrates that the
economic implications of a major deepwater spill in Cuba could be substantial, with farreaching impacts on tourism as well as commercial and recreational fishing . In Florida, over
86.5 million tourists visited the state in 2011 and generated over $67 billion in direct economic impact.50 Tourism
represents Floridas top industry and accounts for 23 percent of the states sales tax revenue.51 Florida also boasts
one of the most productive commercial fisheries in the country, and its recreational saltwater fishery has an
economic impact of $5.7 billion, while supporting over 54,000 jobs.52 As demonstrated during the Deepwater
Horizon disaster, publicity surrounding a spill can ignite public fears and decimate tourism and
seafood consumption even in areas spared of oil exposure . An oil spill could threaten fisheries and
tourism in Cuba as much as in Florida. Top tourist areas along Cubas North Coastincluding Cayo Paraiso and
Cayo Levisaare known for their pristine beaches and attractive snorkeling opportunities. Following Havana, the
resort town of Varadero is the second most popular destination on the island for foreign travelers. Varaderos
extensive beaches receive one million international visitors annually and could experience devastating physical and
financial impacts in the event of a spill. Cayo Coco, located on the Sabana Camaguey Archipelago on the northern
shore of Cuba, is another prime tourist destination also directly vulnerable to a potential spill. With its crystal
waters and pristine white sand beaches, Cayo Coco is home to a host of all-inclusive luxury resorts. In 2011,
tourism attracted 2.7 million visitors and 2.5 billion in income to Cuba, which represents a 12.8 percent increase in
revenue from the previous year.53 Given that the tourism industry is perceived as the engine of Cubas economic
growth, the island would have much to lose if a highly-publicized oil spill impacted its shores

---Regime Change Advantage

1AC Advantage
Cubans wants political Reforms

Sweig 13 JULIA E. SWEIG is Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow and Director for Latin America Studies and
the Global Brazil Initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations.
At first glance, Cuba's basic political and economic structures appear as durable as the midcentury American cars
still roaming its streets. The Communist Party remains in power, the state dominates the
economy, and murals depicting the face of the long-dead revolutionary Che Guevara still appear on city walls.
Predictions that the island would undergo a rapid transformation in the manner of China or Vietnam, let alone the
former Soviet bloc, have routinely proved to be bunk. But Cuba does look much different today than it did ten or 20
years ago, or even as recently as 2006, when severe illness compelled Fidel Castro, the country's longtime president,
to step aside. Far from treading water, Cuba has entered a new era, the features of which defy easy classification or
comparison to transitions elsewhere.
Three years ago, Castro caused a media firestorm by quipping to an American journalist that
"the Cuban model doesn't even work for us anymore." Tacitly embracing this assessment, Fidel's
brother Ral Castro, the current president, is leading a gradual but, for Cuba, ultimately radical

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overhaul of the relationship between the state, the individual, and society, all without
cutting the socialist umbilical cord. So far, this unsettled state of affairs lacks complete definition or a
convincing label. "Actualization of the Cuban social and economic model," the Communist Party's preferred
euphemism, oversells the degree of ideological cohesion while smoothing over the implications for society and
politics. For now, the emerging Cuba might best be characterized as a public-private hybrid in
which multiple forms of production, property ownership, and investment, in addition to a slimmer welfare state and
greater personal freedom, will coexist with military-run state companies in strategic sectors of the economy and
continued one-party rule.
A new migration law, taking effect this year, provides a telling example of Cuba's ongoing reforms. Until recently, the
Cuban government required its citizens to request official permission before traveling abroad, and doctors, scientists,
athletes, and other professionals faced additional obstacles. The state still regulates the exit and entry of professional
athletes and security officials and reserves the right to deny anyone a passport for reasons of national security. But
the new migration law eliminates the need for "white cards," as the expensive and unpopular exit permits were
known; gives those who left the country illegally, such as defectors and rafters, permission to visit or possibly
repatriate; and expands from 11 months to two years the period of time Cubans can legally reside abroad without the
risk of losing their bank accounts, homes, and businesses on the island.
This new moment in Cuba has arrived not with a bang but rather on the heels of a series of cumulative measures -most prominent among them agricultural reform, the formalization of a progressive tax code, and the government's
highly publicized efforts to begin shrinking the size of state payrolls by allowing for a greater number of small
businesses. The beginnings of private credit, real estate, and wholesale markets promise to further Cuba's evolution.
Still, Cuba does not appear poised to adopt the Chinese or Vietnamese blueprint for market liberalization anytime
soon. Cuba's unique demographic, geographic, and economic realities -- particularly the island's aging population of
11 million, its proximity to the United States, and its combination of advanced human capital and dilapidated physical
infrastructure -- set Cuba apart from other countries that have moved away from communism. It is perhaps
unsurprising, then, that Cuba's ongoing changes do not resemble the rapid transition scenario envisioned in the 1996
Helms-Burton legislation, which conditioned the removal of the U.S. embargo on multiparty elections and the
restitution of private property that was nationalized in the 1960s. In this respect, Washington remains more frozen in
time than Havana.
Cuba's reforms might appear frustratingly slow, inconsistent, and insufficient to address its citizens'
economic difficulties and desires for greater political participation. This lack of swiftness,
however, should not be taken as a sign that the government has simply dug in its heels or is ignoring the political
stakes. The response of Cuban leaders to their country's vexing long-term challenges has involved strategic thinking
and considerable debate. Indeed, the next few years will be crucial. As the 53-year-old Miguel Daz-Canel, the current
vice president and Castro's newly designated successor, recently noted, Cuba has made "progress on the issues that
are easiest to solve," but "what is left are the more important choices that will be decisive in the development of [the]
country."

Creating more economic opportunities in Cuba will help lift the Castro Regime

Bandow 12 (Doug Bandow works for the CATO Institute. http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/time-endcuba-embargo)

Expanding economic opportunities also might increase pressure within Cuba for further
economic reform. So far the regime has taken small steps, but rejected significant change.
Moreover, thrusting more Americans into Cuban society could help undermine the ruling
system. Despite Fidel Castros decline, Cuban politics remains largely static. A few human rights
activists have been released, while Raul Castro has used party purges to entrench loyal elites.

Lifting the embargo would be no panacea. Other countries invest in and trade with Cuba to no
obvious political impact. And the lack of widespread economic reform makes it easier for the
regime rather than the people to collect the benets of trade, in contrast to China. Still, more
U.S. contact would have an impact. Argued trade specialist Dan Griswold, American tourists
would boost the earnings of Cubans who rent rooms, drive taxis, sell art, and operate restaurants
in their homes. Those dollars would then nd their way to the hundreds of freely priced farmers
markets, to carpenters, repairmen, tutors, food venders, and other entrepreneurs.
The Castro dictatorship ultimately will end up in historys dustbin. But it will continue to
cause much human hardship along the way.

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It is necessary for regime change in Cuba to spread democracy

Havana Times 13 (May 8, 2013 Biden: U.S. wants real change in Cuba http://www.havanatimes.org/?
p=92758)
US Vice President Joe Biden said today that Washington believes that Cuba has made some small encouraging
signs of change but that the Obama administration still wants to see real change leading to a
democratic future of the island. At the same time, he warned that the imprisonment of US agent Alan
Gross in Havana is still one of the main obstacles to a dialogue with Cuba, reported DPA news. We have seen

some small encouraging signs as the release of political prisoners, the lifting of travel
restrictions and small economic reforms,? Biden said in his keynote speech to the 43rd Conference of
the Americas at the State Department in Washington. However, he criticized what he called the
continuing abuse and arrest of people who want to express an opinion different from the
official policy of the island. Therefore, he said, although the Obama administration has
made some gestures toward liberalization of Cuba travel and remittances for CubanAmericans, the ultimate goal is still seeing a democratic island and that the US would
continue working in that direction. What we really want to do is encourage the next level
of cooperation in Cuba, (encourage) real changes, significant, permanent, the type of
peaceful democratic change and courageous that Cubans like (the late dissident) Oswaldo Paya
have defended, said Biden. That is why we will continue taking steps to support the Cuban
people and the prosperous democratic future they deserve , he said. In any dialogue with Havana the
case of Alan Gross continues to weigh heavy, Biden reiterated.
The Vice President recalled that even many of those who support more involvement in Cuba have spoken out in
favor of Grosss release and he assured that the Obama administration is working on it.

More Human Rights in Cuba lead the path to Global Democracy

Goodhart 08 (Michael Goodhart is Associate Professor of Political Science, and he holds secondary appointments in
Philosophy and Women's Studies at the University of Pittsburgh Human Rights and Global Democracy
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747-7093.2008.00177.x/full)
Human rights are necessary for achieving democracy in such a context for four reasons. First,
they attach to persons rather than to particular jurisdictions ; that is, they apply regardless of who
violates them or where the violations occur. Second, they are globally recognized as standards of

legitimacy binding not only on states but also on IGOs, TNCs, and the like. Third, and
related, human rights do not require a comprehensive political framework for their
implementation; their protection is compatible with the multiplicity of governance
including democratic state governmentcharacteristic of global politics. Finally, human
rights articulate aims rather than mechanisms. They describe what should be achieved, not
how it should be achieved. This makes them flexible enough to adapt to the diversity of
existing and emerging forms of governance. This way of understanding human rights
resonates with the trend in law, scholarship, and practice of viewing human rights not only
in the traditional manneras legal obligations of states to their citizensbut also more
expansively as ethical standards for legitimate governance at all levels and binding on all actors.

Democracy is an extremely favorable type of government

Morlino 04 (Leonardo Morlino is a professor at the University of Florence What is good about democracy?
http://ies.berkeley.edu/research/files/CP02/CP02-What_is_Good_Democracy.pdf)
A quality democracy is a good democracy. As is evident, the defining problem concerns what is intended by the
adjective. Starting from the definition mentioned above, and from the prevailing notions of quality , I consider a

quality or good democracy to be one presenting a stable institutional structure that realizes
the liberty and equality of citizens through the legitimate and correct functioning of its
institutions and mechanisms. A good democracy is thus first and foremost a broadly
legitimated regime that completely satisfies citizens (quality in terms of result). When institutions
have the full backing of civil society, they can pursue the values of the democratic regime . If,

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in contrast, the institutions must postpone their objectives and expend energy and resources on consolidating and
maintaining their legitimacy, crossing over even the minimum threshold for democracy becomes a remarkable feat.

Second, a good democracy is one in which the citizens, associations, and communities of
which it is composed enjoy at least a moderate level of liberty and equality (quality in terms of
content). Third, in a good democracy it is the citizens themselves who have the power to check
and evaluate whether the government pursues the objectives of liberty and equality
according to the rule of law. They monitor the efficiency of the application of the laws in force, the efficacy of
the decisions made by government, and the political responsibility and accountability of elected officials in relation to
the demands expressed by civil society (quality in terms of procedure).

Cuba Pro Liberalization

Cuban economists want free market reforms

Wall Street Journal 07 (http://www.wright.edu/~tdung/Cuba_economy_after_Castro.pdf)

With Fidel Castro ailing and absent from the public stage, some influential Cuban intellectuals
are laying plans for a more market-oriented approach to fortify the island's ailing
communist economy. The debate over economic experimentation, squelched a decade ago by the Castro
regime, offers a glimpse of what a post-Castro Cuba could look like. Now, it is intensifying at a time when Castro
disciple Hugo Chvez is steering Venezuela toward the kind of hardline socialism that has failed to produce
prosperity in Cuba. Together, the Cuban economists' proposals would cut down on state

interference in businesses and aim to wring more productivity out of the island nation's
economy. Among the steps under discussion: decentralizing control, expanding the power
of managers at privately owned agricultural cooperatives, extending private ownership to
other sectors, boosting investment in infrastructure and increasing incentives to workers.
None of the plans would shuck communism for capitalism or open the island further to foreign investment -- which
economists outside Cuba say are critical for the island to prosper. But the fact that the government is permitting -and perhaps even encouraging -- the debate suggests regime officials might find these kinds of
changes acceptable, though it may take Mr. Castro's death to put them into action. "We are in the midst of a process
of debate, which is cautious and controlled, but is happening for the first time in many years," said Pedro Monreal, a
senior professor at the Center for Research on the International Economy in Havana. "It's an historic moment," says
Julia Sweig, a Cuba specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. "The Cuban regime feels confident
enough to have voices it once purged be at the center of the economic debate on reform." The proposals are

prompted by the continuing economic privation in Cuba, where state salaries don't come
close to covering living costs.

A speaker for the Cuban people says that Cubans want reforms
Global Post 13 (February 7, 2013 Cubans want more reforms
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/130207/cubans-want-more-reforms-dissident-blogger)
President Raul Castro's economic reforms "have whetted the appetite of Cubans" who now
want more, opposition blogger Yoani Sanchez said in an interview with a Brazilian newspaper Thursday. "I am
not naive about the changes in Cuba, about the small economic adjustments which Castro introduced," the
prominent Cuban dissident, who recently received a passport allowing her to travel abroad, said from Havana.
"Cuba is ready to enter the 21st century," Sanchez said, in the interview with the daily Folha de Sao Paulo.
She has just obtained a visa to visit Brazil, which will be her first stop on a foreign tour that will begin February 17. In
a bid to revive the communist-ruled island's economy, Castro has undertaken a series of cautious
reforms since taking over from his ailing brother Fidel in 2006, including legalizing the private real

estate market and allowing more private businesses. Cuba has also allowed citizens to
travel abroad for the first time without a reviled and costly exit visa. During her stay in Brazil, the
blogger will attend the opening of Brazilian filmmaker Dado Galvao's 2009 documentary "Connection CubaHonduras," in which she is interviewed. Galvao had launched a campaign to secure Sanchez's visit to Brazil.
Sanchez, who often criticizes the government in her "Generation Y" blog , had a visa to visit Brazil
last year but was unable to make the trip because she had no passport and was refused one. During a planned

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February 20-21 stay in Sao Paulo, the blogger will attend the launch of her book, "From Cuba with Affection," and
give interviews to local media, according to Contexto, the publisher. After Brazil, she plans to visit Peru, the Czech
Republic and Mexico, where she is to attend a meeting of the Inter-American Press Association on March 8. She

won the Ortega y Gasset prize for best online journalism, granted by Spain's El Pais
newspaper, in 2008. She was also named one of Time magazine's 100 most influential
people in 2008, and CNN has called her blog among the world's 25 best.

The Castro Regime is Falling apart and more International attention would cause more
dissidents under the government
Democracy Digest 12 (12-10-2012 Cuba reforms fail because regime not ready to let go
http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2012/12/cuba-reforms-fail-because-regime-not-ready-to-let-go/)

Cubas efforts to promote small-scale private enterprise are floundering due to the
governments innate authoritarianism, say analysts. The failure of a new agriculture exchange
near the capital, Havana, is a vivid sign of both how much the country has changed, and of all
the political and practical limitations that continue to hold it back, The New York Times reports:
Because of waste, poor management, policy constraints, transportation limits, theft and
other problems, overall efficiency has dropped: many Cubans are actually seeing less food
at private markets. That is the case despite an increase in the number of farmers and
production gains for certain items. A recent study from the University of Havana showed that market
prices jumped by nearly 20 percent in 2011 alone. And food imports increased to an
estimated $1.7 billion last year, up from $1.4 billion in 2006. Its the first instance of
Cubas leader not being able to get done what he said he would, said Jorge I. Domnguez, vice
provost for international affairs at Harvard. The published statistical results are really very
discouraging. The reforms are failing to inject much dynamism into the islands moribund
economy, demonstrating that the regime has has lost the ideological battle , observers claim.
The projects failure highlights the tensions within the ruling Community Partys attempt to reconcile free markets
with authoritarian politics, along the lines of the Market-Leninist regimes in Vietnam and China, analysts suggest:
Its about control, said Philip Peters, a Cuba analyst with the Lexington Institute, a Virginia-based research group.
Other analysts agree, noting that though the agricultural reforms have gone farther than other changes like those
that allow for self-employment they remain constrained by politics. The government is not ready to let
go, said Ted Henken, a Latin American studies professor at Baruch College. They are sending the message

that they want to let go, or are trying to let go, but what they have is still a mechanism of
control. Desperate for foreign revenue, Cubas government is suppressing news of a major cholera outbreak for
fear of alienating tourists. We have to question whether the Cuban government today prioritizes their need for
tourism more than local public health demands, wrote Sherri Porcelain, a public health expert at the University of
Miami and researcher at its Institute for Cuban and Cuban American Studies. Worst hit by the cholera has been
eastern Cuba, where Sandy came ashore last month halfway between Manzanillo and Santiago, the islands secondlargest city and capital of a province with the same name. It damaged water, electricity and sewer systems, flooded
latrines and left behind puddles where dengue-carrying mosquitoes easily bred. There is tremendous worry in
Santiago, said Clavel, one of a dozen Cubans contacted for this story. Many were dissidents, unafraid to talk about
the epidemics. Their versions coincided in many ways, but could not be individually confirmed. The regimes

recent crackdown on pro-democracy dissidents has prompted the head of Spains ruling
party to call for the democratization of Cuba . I want to say very loudly and clearly that for the citizens
of the western countries, for all the citizens of the democratic countries that share the same cultural roots and the
same moral and political values, the existence of the Communist dictatorship in Cuba is a reason
for embarrassment and a call to our sense of freedom and responsibility , said Esperanza
Aguirre. Her countrys historical and cultural bonds with Cuba mean Spaniards have more responsibility than
anyone else when it comes to taking on the dictatorship, and when it comes to collaborating with the
dissidence in order to achieve, once and for all, a return to a free Cuba, she said.

Embargo Key
Keeping the Embargo keeps the Castro regime in power

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Hellmer 03 (Muetze Hellmer is a sociology senior Trade embargo fuels Castro regime
http://www.loyolamaroon.com/2.8031/trade-embargo-fuels-castro-regime-1.1130964#.UdiC7_nVDK8)

A few weeks ago President Bush announced that he would liberate the Cuban people from
Fidel Castro's regime by tightening the trade embargo and by increasing efforts to spread
U.S. propaganda in the nation. For Bush, this was little more than talk aimed at getting the Miami
vote, but this talk is very harmful, especially to Cubans. Possibly recognizing this, the House
and Senate have moved to reduce enforcement of the travel ban. A recent New York Times
editorial said, "As the main beneficiary of this failed policy, Mr. Castro may want to call Mr.
Bush and encourage him to get that veto pen ready." Castro indeed would be disappointed
to see the sanctions lifted. This would remove the one thing that has kept Castro in power
all of these years - fear. Like any government that crushes its people, the best asset that
Castro's regime could have is the fear of its citizens. Fear of state terror will do, but fear of
foreign invasion and domination is better. The forty-year economic embargo, coupled with
covert U.S. action to destabilize the current government, has given the Cuban people fear.
This fear has been used by the Castro regime to justify its abuse of human rights and its
mockery of democracy. Recent events illustrate this claim. About a year ago, former U.S. President Jimmy
Carter became the first U.S. president to visit the island since the 1959 revolution. A few days before his arrival, a
group of Cubans presented a petition to the government demanding freedom of speech, of communication, of
enterprise, and free elections. This timing was not a coincidence - the signers and leaders of the project waited for
Carter's visit, because they knew that the Cuban government would not dare perpetuate a human rights disaster in
front of a former U.S. president. This was about the same time that current U.S. president, George W. Bush, made
some hostile, idiotic, and widely published remarks about Castro's government. As soon as Carter was safely off the
island, Castro organized a widespread effort to combat the protesters' threat to his

government by using the remarks by our current president to rally the Cuban people behind
him. The largest march in Cuban history was coordinated as a protest reacting to Bush's
gibberish. Following this rally, a change to the constitution was proposed, which would
make the current economic and political structure of Cuba forever unchangeable. Official
government reports say that 99.25 percent of Cuban citizens "voted" on this proposition putting to death any notion of peaceful political change on the island. This trade embargo
and these hostile actions from the U.S. government do not hurt Castro; they justify his hold
over the country. Negative attention from the United States, such as Bush's statements on Oct. 10, strengthen
the dictator and his oppressive policies. His defense is that Cuba is in a state of war with the United States, and that it
is necessary for all citizens to sacrifice a few freedoms. To show that we care about the freedom of the

Cuban people, let's stop the war and let Castro stand on his own legitimacy. If he stands,
then he is what the Cuban people want. If not, ending the embargo is how we can effectively
bring about change on the island.

Lifting the Embargo would cause the Castro Dictatorship to collapse, spurring
improved human rights and living conditions
Voxxi 13 (June, 2 2013 Prosperity in Cuba terrifies the Castro regime
http://www.voxxi.com/prosperity-cubathe-castro-regime/)

Prosperity has an appealing sound. Many ordinary Cubans, especially the young, yearn
for it. Their Communist leaders have responded with reforms that now give them more
chance for material self-improvement than they have known in decades. The change is
astonishing. Streets are lined with private businesses, ranging from shops and cafes to computer schools to yoga and
aerobics studios. Along highways, vendors hawk fish and vegetables. This would have been unthinkable a few years
ago. Few Cubans are happy with the change, though. Many think it is far too limited.

Regulations still make it difficult for them to hire employees and buy supplies. Businesses
must stay small; people call them bonsai businesses after the Asian plants that never grow beyond miniature
size. This frustrates the remarkable number of Cubans who are eager to become entrepreneurs. They wish the

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government would cast aside its fears and liberate the economy. Something in the minds
of our leaders makes them hate the thought that someone might get rich, observed the barber
who shaved me in the provincial town of Cardenas. He was right, but the regimes fears are
understandable. Senior Cuban leaders, symbolized by Fidel and Raul Castro, were forged
in the crucible of Marxist ideology and spent their lives considering capitalism a cruel
enemy of humanity. They rebelled against social inequality as young men, saw the suffering that enveloped
many capitalist countries in Latin America, and were appalled by the emergence of rapacious oligarchy in Russia after
privatization in the 1990s. Almost literally on the back of their necks, they feel the eager breath of what

some call the Miami mafia, wealthy Cuban Americans who dream that investing in Cuban
businesses could be their path to power in their ancestral homeland. Legalizing largerscale private business in Cuba would have profound political consequences. It would lead to
the emergence of a middle class, and eventually a wealthy class. Such classes always seek to
transform their economic power into political power. Cuban leaders are acutely aware that
an open economy could be the greatest long-term threat to their revolutionary order. This
makes the US trade embargo on Cuba even more self-defeating than it has been for the last
half-century. It is among the most bizarre American foreign policies. No other country in the world has cut itself
off from Cuba. Lifting the embargo would hasten the kind of change most Americans and most
Cubans would like to see in Cuba. Paralyzed by fear of the Cuban vote in Florida, however,
generations of American politicians have refused to take this eminently logical step. In
todays Cuba, life is shaped by access to hard currency. This has led to a ludicrous distortion of the social order. A
surgeon, who by the nature of his profession may work only for the state, is paid in Cuban pesos and earns the
equivalent of $30 per month. A waiter in a tourist restaurant, paid in hard currency, can earn that in a day. So can
performers who dress up in garish caricature of old Cuban dancers and, for a fee, allow themselves to be
photographed kissing tipsy tourists in the colonial plazas of Old Havana.

Lifting the Embargo would help liberate Cuba

Bandow 12 (Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a former special assistant to former US president
Ronald Reagan. December 11, 2012, Time to End the Cuba Embargo,
http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/time-end-cuba-embargo)
The U.S. government has waged economic war against the Castro regime for half a century. The policy may have been
worth a try during the Cold War, but the embargo has failed to liberate the Cuban people. It is time to
end sanctions against Havana. Decades ago the Castro brothers lead a revolt against a nasty authoritarian, Fulgencio
Batista. After coming to power in 1959, they created a police state, targeted U.S. commerce, nationalized American
assets, and allied with the Soviet Union. Although Cuba was but a small island nation, the Cold War magnified its
perceived importance. Washington reduced Cuban sugar import quotas in July 1960. Subsequently U.S. exports were
limited, diplomatic ties were severed, travel was restricted, Cuban imports were banned, Havanas American assets
were frozen, and almost all travel to Cuba was banned. Washington also pressed its allies to impose sanctions. These
various measures had no evident effect, other than to intensify Cubas reliance on the Soviet Union. Yet the collapse
of the latter nation had no impact on U.S. policy. In 1992, Congress banned American subsidiaries from doing
business in Cuba and in 1996, it penalized foreign firms that trafficked in expropriated U.S. property. Executives from
such companies even were banned from traveling to America. On occasion Washington relaxed one aspect or another
of the embargo, but in general continued to tighten restrictions, even over Cuban Americans. Enforcement is not
easy, but Uncle Sam tries his best. For instance, according to the Government Accountability Office, Customs and
Border Protection increased its secondary inspection of passengers arriving from Cuba to reflect an increased risk of
embargo violations after the 2004 rule changes, which, among other things, eliminated the allowance for travelers to
import a small amount of Cuban products for personal consumption. Three years ago, President Barack Obama
loosened regulations on Cuban Americans, as well as telecommunications between the United States and Cuba.
However, the law sharply constrains the presidents discretion. Moreover, UN Ambassador Susan Rice said that the
embargo will continue until Cuba is free. It is far past time to end the embargo. During the Cold War, Cuba
offered a potential advanced military outpost for the Soviet Union. Indeed, that role led to the Cuban missile crisis.
With the failure of the U.S.-supported Bay of Pigs invasion, economic pressure appeared to be Washingtons best
strategy for ousting the Castro dictatorship. However, the end of the Cold War left Cuba strategically irrelevant. It is a
poor country with little ability to harm the United States. The Castro regime might still encourage unrest, but its

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survival has no measurable impact on any important U.S. interest. The regime remains a humanitarian
travesty, of course. Nor are Cubans the only victims: three years ago the regime jailed a State
Department contractor for distributing satellite telephone equipment in Cuba. But Havana is
not the only regime to violate human rights. Moreover, experience has long demonstrated that it is virtually
impossible for outsiders to force democracy. Washington often has used sanctions and the Office of Foreign Assets
Control currently is enforcing around 20 such programs, mostly to little effect. The policy in Cuba obviously

has failed. The regime remains in power. Indeed, it has consistently used the embargo to
justify its own mismanagement, blaming poverty on America. Observed Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton: It is my personal belief that the Castros do not want to see an end to the
embargo and do not want to see normalization with the United States, because they would
lose all of their excuses for what hasnt happened in Cuba in the last 50 years. Similarly, Cuban
exile Carlos Saladrigas of the Cuba Study Group argued that keeping the embargo, maintaining this
hostility, all it does is strengthen and embolden the hardliners . Cuban human rights activists also
generally oppose sanctions. A decade ago I (legally) visited Havana, where I met Elizardo Sanchez Santa Cruz, who
suffered in communist prisons for eight years. He told me that the sanctions policy gives the government a good alibi
to justify the failure of the totalitarian model in Cuba. Indeed, it is only by posing as an opponent of Yanqui
Imperialism that Fidel Castro has achieved an international reputation. If he had been ignored by Washington, he
never would have been anything other than an obscure authoritarian windbag. Unfortunately, embargo supporters
never let reality get in the way of their arguments. In 1994, John Sweeney of the Heritage Foundation declared that
the embargo remains the only effective instrument available to the U.S. government in trying to force the economic
and democratic concessions it has been demanding of Castro for over three decades. Maintaining the embargo will
help end the Castro regime more quickly. The latters collapse, he wrote, is more likely in the near term than ever
before. Almost two decades later, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, chairwoman of the House Foreign Relations Committee,
retains faith in the embargo: The sanctions on the regime must remain in place and, in fact, should be strengthened,
and not be altered. One of the best definitions of insanity is continuing to do the same thing while expecting to
achieve different results. The embargo survives largely because of Floridas political importance. Every presidential
candidate wants to win the Sunshine States electoral votes, and the Cuban American community is a significant
voting bloc. But the political environment is changing. A younger, more liberal generation of Cuban Americans with
no memory of life in Cuba is coming to the fore. Said Wayne Smith, a diplomat who served in Havana: for the first
time in years, maybe there is some chance for a change in policy. And there are now many more new young Cuban
Americans who support a more sensible approach to Cuba. Support for the Republican Party also is falling. According
to some exit polls Barack Obama narrowly carried the Cuban American community in November, after receiving little
more than a third of the vote four years ago. He received 60 percent of the votes of Cuban Americans born in the
United States. Barack Obama increased his votes among Cuban Americans after liberalizing contacts with the island.
He also would have won the presidency without Florida, demonstrating that the state may not be essential politically.
Today even the GOP is no longer reliable. For instance, though Republican vice-presidential nominee Paul Ryan has
defended the embargo in recent years, that appears to reflect ambition rather than conviction. Over the years he
voted at least three times to lift the embargo, explaining: The embargo doesnt work. It is a failed policy. It was
probably justified when the Soviet Union existed and posed a threat through Cuba. I think its become more of a
crutch for Castro to use to repress his people. All the problems he has, he blames the American embargo. There is
essentially no international support for continuing the embargo. For instance, the European Union plans to explore
improving relations with Havana. Spains Deputy Foreign Minister Gonzalo de Benito explained that the EU saw a
positive evolution in Cuba. The hope, then, is to move forward in the relationship between the European Union and
Cuba. The administration should move now, before congressmen are focused on the next election. President Obama
should propose legislation to drop (or at least significantly loosen) the embargo. He also could use his authority to
relax sanctions by, for instance, granting more licenses to visit the island. Ending the embargo would have obvious
economic benefits for both Cubans and Americans. The U.S. International Trade Commission estimates American
losses alone from the embargo as much as $1.2 billion annually. Expanding economic opportunities also might
increase pressure within Cuba for further economic reform. So far the regime has taken small steps, but

rejected significant change. Moreover, thrusting more Americans into Cuban society could
help undermine the ruling system. Despite Fidel Castros decline, Cuban politics remains largely static. A
few human rights activists have been released, while Raul Castro has used party purges to entrench loyal elites.
Lifting the embargo would be no panacea. Other countries invest in and trade with Cuba to no obvious political
impact. And the lack of widespread economic reform makes it easier for the regime rather than the people to collect
the benefits of trade, in contrast to China. Still, more U.S. contact would have an impact. Argued trade specialist Dan

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Griswold, American tourists would boost the earnings of Cubans who rent rooms, drive taxis, sell art, and operate
restaurants in their homes. Those dollars would then find their way to the hundreds of freely priced farmers markets,
to carpenters, repairmen, tutors, food venders, and other entrepreneurs. The Castro dictatorship
ultimately will end up in historys dustbin. But it will continue to cause much human hardship along the
way. The Heritage Foundations John Sweeney complained nearly two decades ago that the United States must not
abandon the Cuban people by relaxing or lifting the trade embargo against the communist regime. But the dead
hand of half a century of failed policy is the worst breach of faith with the Cuban people. Lifting sanctions would be a
victory not for Fidel Castro, but for the power of free people to spread liberty. As Griswold argued, commercial
engagement is the best way to encourage more open societies abroad. Of course, there are no guarantees. But

lifting the embargo would have a greater likelihood of success than continuing a policy
which has failed. Some day the Cuban people will be free. Allowing more contact with
Americans likely would make that day come sooner.

Human Rights Extensions

If the Castro Regime isnt lifted, then extreme human rights violations will continue
which is horrible. We owe action to these suffering people.

U.S. Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor 06 (March 8, 2006 Cuba
http://www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/hrrpt/2005/61723.htm)

The government's human rights record remained poor, and the government continued to
commit numerous, serious abuses. At least 333 Cuban political prisoners and detainees were
held at year's end. The following human rights problems were reported: denial of citizens'
rights to change their government, beatings and abuse of detainees and prisoners,
including human rights activists, carried out with impunity, transfers of mentally healthy
prisoners to psychiatric facilities for political reasons, frequent harassment of political
opponents by government-recruited mobs, extremely harsh and life-threatening prison
conditions, including denial of medical care, arbitrary arrest and detention of human rights
advocates and members of independent professional organizations, denial of fair trial,
particularly to political prisoners, interference with privacy, including pervasive
monitoring of private communications, severe limitations on freedom of speech and press,
denial of peaceful assembly and association, restrictions on freedom of movement,
including selective denial of exit permits to thousands of citizens, refusal to recognize
domestic human rights groups or to permit them to function legally, domestic violence,
underage prostitution, and sex tourism, discrimination against persons of African descent,
and severe restrictions on worker rights, including the right to form independent unions.

Human Rights Violations are extremely high

Hanson and Lee 13 (Stephanie Hanson, and Brianna Lee, Senior Production Editors on the Council on Foreign
Relations U.S.-Cuba Relations http://www.cfr.org/cuba/us-cuba-relations/p11113#p4)

In March 2003, the Cuban government arrested seventy-five dissidents and journalists,
sentencing them to prison terms of up to twenty-eight years on charges of conspiring with
the United States to overthrow the state. The Cuban Commission for Human Rights and
National Reconciliation, a Havana-based nongovernmental group, reports that the
government has in recent years resorted to other tactics besides prison --such as firings
from state jobs and intimidation on the street-- to silence opposition figures. A 2005 UN

Human Rights Commission vote condemned Cuba's human rights record, but the country
was elected to the new UN Human Rights Council in 2006.
Humanitarian Aid Key to gaining soft power, and soft power helps prevent future
conflicts
Bouie 12 (5-4-12 Danny R. Bouie is a Lieutenant in the U.S. Navy Humanitarian Assistance and Soft Power

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Projection http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a563765.pdf)

Humanitarian Assistance is a soft power tool that is available to theater commanders and
can potentially extend their operational reach far beyond the expected results of kinetic
effects. The use of soft power is far reaching and more than just a diplomatic tool. The
soft power of a country rests primarily on three resources: its culture (places where it is
attractive to others), its political values (when it lives up to them at home and abroad),
and its foreign policies (when they are seen as legitimate and having moral authority).20
Future conflicts will continue to be political in nature and may require less engagement by
military personnel in a combat role, but will lend themselves to the U.S. supporting allies
and partners through diplomacy and the military in a soft power role. As a vital element

of U.S. national power the U.S. military must adapt the capability to project soft power
as a means of shaping the international communitys support for U.S. values and
interests and effectively communicating the success of soft power operations21 .

Humanitarian Assistance as an intentional pre-planned operation gives the commander

the ability to cultivate the operational environment through the six phase model

***Neg
---Advantage Updates
Relations Uniqueness

US relations with Latin America are good and getting better

Farnworth, 13 ( Eric Farnworth, a reporter from ABC news, US Latin American relations: Paternalism to Partner(opinion),
June 13, 2013, http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Opinion/us-latin-american-relations-paternalism-partnership-

opinion/story?id=19393563#.Ud4IDvlQFqU)
It's rare that both the U.S. president and vice president travel to Latin America and the Caribbean in the same year,
much less the same month.
But that's exactly what just occurred with President Barack Obama's trip to Mexico and Central
America, and Vice President Joe Biden's travel to Brazil, Colombia, and Trinidad and Tobago in
May. These tripsand also early June meetings in Washington with the presidents of Chile and
Peru and Secretary of State John Kerry's trip to Guatemala, a state visit for the president of Brazil
in October, and meaningful immigration reformoffer the best opportunity in some time to
establish a more consequential U.S. policy toward the Americas. For many years the foundation for policy has been
the belief that democracy is both secure and ingrained in the minds of the people of Latin America and the Caribbean, and that partnership with the
United States is a natural result. Washington

assumes that democracies once established through free and

fair elections will remain democratic, and that democratic institutions will deepen and prosper
over time. The United States also anticipates that democratically-elected governments will transition power regularly and peacefully to a legitimate
opposition, abide by a rule of law that supersedes any individual government, maintain human rights protections, and respect a free press.

China Threat Uniqueness

China is not a threat in Latin America

AFP, 2010 (AFP, August 18

,2010, US sees no China threat in Latin America,

th

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iw7rVbCz5WJ-yjCFa6DcH9EO7VTQ)
BEIJING The

United States welcomes China's investments in Latin America and does not see the Asian nation's
growing influence in the region as a threat to its interests , a senior US official said. "It is certainly not a concern, it is

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certainly not a threat," Arturo Valenzuela, the US State Department's top official for Latin America and the
Caribbean, told reporters during a five-day visit to China. "China's engagement, investment and trade with the countries
of the Western hemisphere... helps to strengthen the economies and provide employment for people in these
countries." The United States and China shared a "coincidence of objectives" in Latin America, Valenzuela said,
noting both countries wanted to lift standards of living, improve political stability and strengthen security in the
region. Chinese trade with the region has grown about 10-fold over the past decade as China's quest for new
sources of raw materials has expanded and Latin American purchases of Chinese-made goods have climbed .
Beijing lent 20 billion dollars to oil-rich Venezuela earlier this year and has been investing heavily in Brazil, which has massive deposits
of iron ore. China's trade with the region reached 143 billion dollars in 2008, the most recent period for which official figures are
available. China is lending a billion dollars to Ecuador for energy, oil and telecommunications projects and a
Chinese company is interested in investing another billion dollars in agricultural projects, Ecuadoran authorities
said Tuesday. Officials said the credit line would be in addition to a 1.7 billion dollar loan from the Eximbank of China for the construction of a 1,500
megawatt hydroelectric plant in Ecuador. Valenzuela, the assistant secretary of state for Western hemisphere affairs, was in Beijing for the fourth round
of talks on Latin America under the umbrella of the US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue. When asked about Taiwan's diplomatic ties in Latin America
and how they affected talks with China, Valenzuela said the issue was a "footnote" in their discussions on the region. Several Central American
countries are among the 23 nations that formally recognise Taipei over Beijing, following their split in 1949 after a civil war.

China is a partner not a threat

Heini, 2008( Jamie Heini, COHA Research Assosiate, Chinas Claim in Latin America: So t Far a Partner Not a threat, July 25,
2008, http://www.coha.org/china%E2%80%99s-claim-in-latin-america-so-far-a-partner-not-a-threat/)

Overall, Chinas increased footprint in Latin America is not indicative of a new rivalry
with the U.S. Instead, it more likely reveals the globalizing trend that helps to dene
modern international relations. China is merely taking advantage of the disintegration
of political and spatial boundaries brought on by globalization, in order to expand its
own economic and political interests. [I]t has demonstrated flexibility in
relationships with Latin American regimes on both the right and left of the political
spectrum. In addition, [China] has sought to maintain a low prole in Latin America that
avoids provoking the United States (China-Latin America Task Force 2006). Therefore, the
U.S. should take a cooperative rather than competitive stance towards Chinas
western advancement in order to minimize any complication of its economic and
political interests, as well as capitalize on the opportunities a new hemispheric player
can provide. U.S. policymakers would be wise to continue to encourage China to adopt human
rights and environmental protections to ensure Beijings responsible involvement in Latin
America. At the same time, the U.S. should recognize Chinas ability to contribute to an
increasingly prosperous western hemisphere which is now seeking autonomy from
Washingtons sometimes harsh manifestations.

China offers opportunities for the US- they are not a threat
Chinese Embassy in the US, No Date (Embassy of the Peoples Republic of China in the United States of America,
China not a threat but an opportunity for US, Zhu says, http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/zmgx/zysj/zrjfm/t36216.htm)

Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji on April 9 reaffirmed that China's growth will pose no threat to the United States, but will instead
offer opportunities for the United States to advance its business interests. The Chinese premier, who is paying an official visit
to the United States, added that China is not an enemy, nor a potential adversary of the United States, but a friend of it for now
and a long time to come. "There is no way that we will become the enemy of the United States," Zhu said at a dinner banquet
here attended by several hundred distinguished figures including some senior former U.S. officials. The Chinese premier argued that China's
GDP (gross domestic product) is only one tenth of the United States and its per capita GDP many times smaller than that of
the United States. Even for decades to come, there will still be a big gap between the two countries. "Therefore, China is going to be the
biggest market rather than a threat (to the United States)." "I think it's time to change the fallacy of 'China being a threat' into the belief
of 'China being an opportunity'," Zhu said. The premier, whose humor aroused laughter and applause from the audience from time to time,
urged American businesspeople not to miss the opportunity of entering the China market . Zhu said he agrees with U.S.

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President Bill Clinton that China lags far behind the United States militarily. "So why should you (Americans) be afraid of
China?" he asked. Zhu, whose remarks focused on business issues at the banquet, said that China has a long way to go in economic development,
particularly in the areas of energy, infrastructure and environmental protection; so there exist big potentials for Sino-U.S. cooperation.

China offers opportunities for the US in multiple areas

Zimmerman, 01 (July 2001, Mailia Zimmerman a journalist for CIRE magazine, China offers opportunities despite
international incidents, http://www.ccim.com/cire-magazine/articles/china-offers-opportunities-despite-internationalincidents)

The Commercial Markets Though the markets are competitive, opportunities exist in the commercial
real estate arenas in China. Office. During 2000, the demand for office space in Beijing was strong, and
vacancy rates declined to between 12 percent and 15 percent. Office lease rates increased to between
$3.80 per square foot to $4.75 psf per month in class A buildings. Last year, three new class A office projects
were completed, providing a total of almost 4.5 million square feet of additional office space. However, the
new supply immediately was offset because more than 7.5 million sf was leased, making 2000 the most robust year for leasing activity in Beijing's
history. Meanwhile, in Shanghai, where absorption rates are down and a large surplus of space exists, the office market saw a rental rate increase of
about 7 percent, with lease rates for class A office space averaging about $1.75 psf per month. About 3.5 million sf of new office space was added to the
Shanghai market during 2000. Industrial. Industrial real estate in China traditionally has been more stable than

other property types due to little speculative development in this sector. However, the face of Beijing's industrial
market is changing, with an infusion of high-tech companies as tenants, which represents a significant shift away from the traditional old-economy users.
Vacancy rates are at 4 percent, and lease rates in Beijing average 45 cents psf per month. Retail. Retail vacancy rates in Beijing

average 12 percent, and lease rates range from $5.84 psf per month in the Chaoyang district to more
than $9.30 psf per month in Wanfujing, the shopping area next to the Forbidden City and Tiananmen
Square. A big-box shopping center is in the planning stages in Beijing, which will be the first Western-style shopping center in China with big
category-killer stores and ample parking. In Shanghai, retail space did not increase significantly last year, with the average vacancy rate at 23 percent
and lease rates in the affluent areas averaging between $7 psf and $8.25 psf per month. Multifamily. During 2000, more than 21 million

sf of housing sold in Beijing, an increase of 85 percent over the previous year. Sales prices for
apartments average about $90 psf. Developers of low-cost housing are entitled to favorable tax credits
if they maintain price levels below about $46 psf. One major factor contributing to the growth in home
sales is the availability of home mortgages. In the second half of 2000, the total value of home
mortgages in Beijing exceeded about $2.5 billion. In Shanghai, both the sale and pre-sale of multifamily units posted doubledigit increases during 2000. The most popular apartments are those priced between $23 psf and $46 psf, which are affordable to the largest segment of
middle-income households. - See more at: http://www.ccim.com/cire-magazine/articles/china-offers-opportunities-despite-internationalincidents#sthash.8lhhDlJC.dpuf

---Oil Spills Advantage

No Drilling
Cuba is moving towards cleaner energy
Torres 13- degree in Biology, a member of the Hermanos Saiz Association (group of young Cuban writers and artists),
Havana Times (Isbel T. 6/21/2013 "Cuba: Wind Power vs. Oil" http://www.havanatimes.org/?p=95091 )PHS
HAVANA TIMES It would seem that local newspapers are intent on misinforming the public both at home and
abroad about the Cuban governments priorities with respect to the development of alternative energy sources. A
case in point was the news surrounding the recently-concluded congress of the World Wind Energy Association and
the Renewable Energy Exhibition (WWEC 2013), held in Havana at the beginning of this month. During a press
conference, the director of Cubas Center for the Study of Renewable Energy Technologies (CETER), Conrado
Moreno, declared that Cuba plans on developing the infrastructure needed to generate at least
10 percent of its electricity with renewable sources by the year 2030. In this connection, the official
lauded the great strides in the development of wind power technologies that Cuba has

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made in recent years, adding that the country has a program the world can learn from.
However, thanks to this impressive wind power program, whose installed capacity was less than 0.5 Megawatts
(MW) in 2005, the country barely produced 12 MW of electricity in 2010. That Cuba should present the congress
with such an out-of-date figure (a figure which, in addition, is anything but impressive, representing a mere 0.08 % of
the countrys entire energy output) should raise some eyebrows. This figure may help explain why it will take
thirteen years for the country to be able to generate 10 % of its energy with wind power and the other renewable
sources of energy used on the island. The fact of the matter is that Cuba currently has 9,343 wind turbines, 15
turbines and 4 wind farms in operation, for an installed capacity of 11.7 MW, a figure which places it beneath 68 other
countries around the world. As a way of comparison, in 2010 Nicaragua had a generating capacity of 40 MW (the
equivalent of 5 % of the countrys total installed capacity), garnered from wind power technologies alone, while Cuba
currently generates a mere 4 % of its electricity via renewable energy sources in general. Local optimism, however,
isnt dampened by any of this, and experts continue to extol the virtues of Cubas largest wind farm (with a
capacity of 51 MW), whose construction on the northern coast of the islands eastern province of Las Tunas, a
place of allegedly ideal wind conditions, is expected to be completed next year. It is estimated that the

wind farm could generate some 153 GW/h a year, allowing the country to cut down its fossil
fuel consumption by some 40 thousand tons a year. Not without a number of altercations at different
levels, the Cuban government has managed to secure the environmental licenses required for
the project from the pertinent agencies rather quickly , giving technicians a mere week to collect the required data. The Wind Energy
Debate Wind power is an abundant, renewable and clean energy resource which can aid in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Cubans, however, have never received any in-depth
information regarding its benefits and limitations, nor have we ultimately been consulted in connection with its implementation. Boasting of a relatively high Energy Return Rate* (18.1:1), wind
power is cursed by one, significant limitation: its intermittence, that is, the fact that wind currents are not constant. According to experts, wind currents on Cubas northern coastline are not
uniform and are heavily influenced by local conditions, resulting from the interaction of trade and local winds and seasonal meteorological events. Because of this, wind power can only ever
supplement, never wholly replace, fossil fuel sources on the island, as the contribution of conventional energy sources is indispensible. In addition, as these conventional technologies operate in
backup mode in this scheme, they consume a lot more fuel per KW produced every hour. Fossil fuels are also consumed during the process of constructing the wind farm (during the mining of
the materials, transportation and industrial processing) and all subsequent, indispensable maintenance operations. Another inconvenient aspect of this technology is that winds must reach a
certain, minimum velocity to be able to move the blades of the turbines. There is also a maximum wind velocity that, if exceeded, causes the entire network circuit to shut down. In addition to the
noise they produce and the disruption of the natural environment they represent, these wind farms reportedly affect the routes of migratory birds or the areas where these birds avail themselves of
lateral winds, and the creation of access roads and regular human presence, in general damages local fauna. The limitations of this technology, and the impact it has on the environment,
ought not make us reject wind farms outright, but should, rather, make us re-think the way in which we have been implementing the technology and how congruous it is with the countrys global

. Cuba has been working in the renewable energy

development strategy, as well as prompt us to demand accurate information in this regard

field for decades without any type of legal regulations and without incurring any legal
action from anyone. Recently, the director of CETER claimed that a team of experts is working to implement it
[the legal regulations] in a manner that suits Cubas economic development model. The Oil Question One of the
more disquieting aspects of the wind power issue is how the Cuban media portray its state
of development on the island, selling an image of a sustainable and ecological program,
when, in fact, the country is heading down the more profitable road, caring little about its
environmental impact. Some statements we find in the press include: In recent years, Cuba has made great
progress in the development of wind power technologies. / Cuba has developed a wind power infrastructure ()
which only highly developed countries can boast of. / Cubas renewable energy program includes photovoltaic
energy sources, which have experienced considerable development since the 1990s. / The solarization of Cubas
energy generating system. / The generation of electricity with renewable sources of energy will grow by 949 MW. As these grandiloquent reports on green energy sources
are published, oil prospecting projects across Cubas platform continue in almost utter silence. This means that the government continues to invest heavily in this polluting energy source. Cuban
oil experts and government officials had anticipated that the country would be producing 90 % of its electricity with domestic oil reserves by 2010, but were unable to achieve this. According to
recent declarations made by Jorge Pion, Associate Director of the Latin American and Caribbean Energy Program, Cuba could be producing as many as 250 thousand barrels of crude a day within
five to seven years. Enthusiastic Cuban government experts estimate that the Gulf of Mexico platform could contain as many as 20 billion barrels of oil. The U.S. Geological Service estimate is
considerably more modest, calculating reserve volumes there at 5 billion oil barrels. To date, results have not been exactly promising. The Scarabeo 9 platform had to pull out of the so-called
Exclusive Economic Zone last year, following three unsuccessful attempts to find oil in the area. To top things off, a few weeks ago, the Russian oil company Zarubezhneft decided to push back
prospecting efforts to 2014, reporting complications of a geological nature. These fiascos do little to burst the oil bubble of the Cuban government, which continues to spend millions in
prospecting infrastructure. Following the intensive modernization of the countrys thermoelectric plants ten years ago, Cuba is now working to expand its refinery in Cienfuegos, construct an oil
duct connecting Cienfuegos and Matanzas, build a storage facility that can house 600 thousand oil barrels in Matanzas and complete the vast commercial port in Mariel (a billion dollar
investment), and in many other related projects. In the meantime, Venezuela continues to ship an average of 100 thousand barrels of oil to the island every day, 30 thousand of which are financed
by PetroCaribe, as per a 25-year agreement with an interest rate of only 1 % signed with the island. What will Cuba do in 2030, then, when it has the infrastructure to generate 10 % of its
electricity using renewable energy sources? Will it have found the oil it seeks by then? Will it abandon the idea of using this oil for energy production? Will it sell it to the United States? According
to the most recent report issued by the National Intelligence Council, the CIA bureau responsible for analyzing and anticipating geopolitical and economic developments around the world, by 2030

.
We must acknowledge that hydrocarbons continue to be the worlds chief energy resource and that, like the rest of the
world, Cuba does not have the infrastructure or programs needed to make the transition to a
post-oil economy. Broadening Cubas Energy Sources Many experts agree that the diversification and
expansion of energy sources must become one of the pillars of Cubas future energy production scheme. A broad
range of alternative energy sources, from natural gas (the least polluting of all hydrocarbons) to renewable sources
such as ethanol extracted from sugar cane, wind power, solar energy and bio-gas could be developed in Cuba. That
said, according to Cubas National Statistics Bureau, the amount of energy Cuba produced using renewable sources in
2011 was nearly 2 million tons less of oil equivalent than in 2001. This report reveals a marked decline in the use of
these alternative energy sources in the course of the decade, a trend which coincides with the oil enthusiasm of
the United States (the worlds largest importer of hydrocarbons today) will be entirely self-sufficient in terms of oil resources, and the worlds oil market could well collapse as a result of this

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recent years and the shutting down of numerous sugar refineries across the country. The greatest drop was
experienced in the use of biomass (chiefly sugar cane bagasse). Hydroelectric plants are the most widely used forms
of primary energy production, while wind power generators occupy the fifth place among renewable energy
technologies used on the island. In recent years, experts in the field have voiced complaints that Cubas Electricity
Law does not particularly encourage the use and commercial promotion of renewable energy sources. The truth of
the matter is that none of these sources of energy afford us one, magical solution to the

problem of the energy deficit, and many of these technologies pose serious bioethical
questions. If anything, they underscore the fact that the demands of contemporary society,
engineered by global capitalism, are insatiable . The policy of development at all costs,
planned obsolescence, the alienation of individuals and collectives in productive processes,
the outsourcing of production, the deification of consumption, policies which protect banks
and international financial institutions, these and many other problems are at the root of
the crisis faced by the energy sector and, I dare say, our civilization as a whole. In the words of social
anthropologist Emilio Santiago Muio, a sustainable system which is not grounded in marketing implies a profound
change in lifestyle. Cuban economists and politicians do not appear to be equipped with the mentality needed to
understand this. They are prey to the same ills mentioned above, and they are irresponsibly supported, in their
policies, by a good part of Cubas scientific community, which does little to re-think the idea of development that
prevails today. At the recently-concluded world conference on wind power, Cuba sought to put together a business
portfolio with a view to signing international agreements and broadening productive capacities in the sector. This,
which appears commendable, is congruous with the pragmatism of calculating analysts within and outside Cuba, who
seek a painless reinsertion of the islands economy in the international market.

A2 Biodiversity Impacts

Their eco collapse claims are exaggerated

Salleh 13- PhD on the role of the media in debates over the risk of new technologies and is a research associate with the
Australian Centre for Independent Journalism at the University of Technology Sydney. Anna has degrees in science and
journalism, and has worked as a researcher and producer on Australian Story, Quantum, The Investigators (ABC TV) and
Insight (SBS TV) programs., Australian Broadcasting Corporation (Anna S. 2/28/2013 "Ecologists Reject 'Doomsday-Like'
Scenario" http://sks.sirs.com/cgi-bin/hst-article-display?id=SNY5587-08705&artno=0000350232&type=ART&shfilter=U&key=Extinction%20%28Biology%29&title=Ecologists%20Reject
%20%27Doomsday-Like%27%20Scenario&res=Y&ren=Y&gov=Y&lnk=Y&ic=N )PHS

Planet's Earth's terrestrial life is not likely to suffer sudden global collapse at the hands of
humans, says an international team of ecologists. But there is debate about their conclusions, to be
published in an upcoming issue of the journal Trends in Ecology and Evolution. Dr. Barry Brook of the University
of Adelaide, and colleagues, question suggestions in recent scientific papers that human activity is pushing planetary
ecology past "tipping points", altering terrestrial life rapidly and possibly irreversibly. Some scientists, for example,
argue the number of species lost has already crossed a threshold, compromising ecological function. Brook says
while ecological tipping points apply in some cases, such as the Amazon, he does not believe

humans can have the sort of global-scale impact on the terrestrial biosphere, that
meteorites or exploding volcanoes are capable of . In the past, such catastrophic events drove
large and rapid planetary-scale changes that shifted Earth's terrestrial ecology into a
completely new state, he says. By contrast, says Brook, human activity has a much more local
and piecemeal effect on terrestrial environments and this does not add up to one focused
global driver of change. In his study, he looked at the effect of human activity on species loss, habitat
fragmentation and land use. "Things happen in a patchy way at different rates in different environments and with
different consequences," says Brook. "That lack of co-ordination suggests relatively smooth changes at the global
scale will occur rather than there being a sudden tipping point." Climate change The new study also looked at
climate change. Brook says even though climate change is a result of a global driver (CO2), its impacts vary from
region to region and some areas will be more vulnerable than others to the same degree of warming. "The argument
that climate change will cause a [global] tipping point in terrestrial ecosystems is weak," he says. Brook emphasises
he does not dispute ecological tipping points apply in some cases. For example, he says ocean acidification may be
reaching a tipping point, and tipping points may be relevant in some regions, for example the Amazon. "What

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we're saying is that at a planetary scale there are no mechanisms that can explain how the
whole earth system can shift from one state to another." Brook believes the tipping point concept has
strong psychological effects on humans. He says before a tipping point is reached, people can delay taking action,
and after it has passed, people feel it's too late to take action. "On one side of the tipping point you're complacent, on
the other side you're fatalistic," says Brook. "If there is no strong tipping point then it's never too late or too early to
intervene." Interconnections Atmospheric scientist Professor Andrew Pitman from the University of New South
Wales agrees with Brook and colleagues' analysis of the relatively limited impact that patchy human activity can have
on habitat and species across the globe. "Human land use change doesn't have an impact on
triggering tipping points at the global scale," he says. But Pitman says Brook has failed to consider the
role of the atmosphere in driving global-scale change. "He takes one piece of the jigsaw, the terrestrial biosphere,
and talks about it in isolation," says Pitman. Pitman says while a slow upward trend in CO2 is unlikely to directly
trigger a planetary-scale collapse of the terrestrial biosphere, the extreme climatic events linked to climate change are
more of a problem. For example, he says, drought together with burning of the Amazon could lead to major changes
in the Earth's atmosphere through release of CO2, aerosols and changes to the global energy and water cycles.
"Water that falls on the edge of the Amazon, falls again three or four or five times as it heads west across the Amazon
basin. It recycles its own rainfall and creates its own climate, which interacts with the global climate," says Pitman.
He says a tipping point in a regional area like the Amazon could trigger a global tipping point through the mediating
role of the atmosphere. And just like a collapse of the large Chinese economy would have devastating effects on the
global economy, a collapse of the vast Amazon would have devastating effects on the globe's ecology, including
biodiversity, says Pitman. "Clearly the loss of the Amazon would not have as big an impact as a three-kilometre
meteorite hitting Western Europe," he says. "But we don't have much we can do about a three-kilometre meteorite.
There is something we can do about CO2 emissions and the consequential impact on the Amazon."

Their impacts are a joke, the Gulfs bacteria ate oil before theyd do it again
Koebler 13- Reporter & Web Producer Feb. 2011 - Present University of Maryland Philip Merrill College of Journalism
College Park, Md.Major in journalism, Minor in SpanishB.A. earned May 2010, U.S. News (Jason K. 4/8/2013 "Study: OilEating Bacteria Mitigated Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill" http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/04/08/study-oileating-bacteria-mitigated-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill )PHS

Oil-eating bacteria that are abundant in the Gulf of Mexico may have prevented the 2010
Deepwater Horizon spill from being more catastrophic , according to new research discussed
Monday. According to some estimates, the spill pumped nearly 5 million barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico over
the course of nearly three months, but within several weeks of being plugged, many areas of the
Gulf were oil free. According to University of Tennessee researcher Terry Hazen, the Gulf has a "greaterthan-believed" ability to clean itself up after an oil spill. He presented his research Monday at the
American Chemical Society's national meeting in New Orleans. "The bottom line from this research may

be that the Gulf of Mexico is more resilient and better able to recover from oil spills than
anyone thought," Hazen said in a statement. "It shows that we may not need the kinds of heroic measures
proposed after the Deepwater Horizon spill, like adding nutrients to speed up the growth of bacteria that breakdown
oil, or using genetically engineered bacteria. The Gulf has a broad base of natural bacteria, and they
respond to the presence of oil by multiplying quite rapidly." The Gulf has such plentiful oil-eating
bacteria because of natural seeps that occur--each year, as many as 1.4 million barrels of oil enter the gulf from the
Earth's crust. Over the years, bacteria have evolved to consume certain oil components . After the
spill, Hazen says there was a boom in the oil-eating bacteria population. "The fact is, for millions of years you have
had a million barrels of oil a day going into the Gulf of Mexico from natural seeps--it's encouraged [the evolution] of
organisms that have the ability to degrade," he says. Hazen told U.S. News that there may still be ongoing
environmental impacts from the spill, which killed 11 people after the rig sunk, devastated the Gulf economy for
months as engineers attempted to plug the spill and killed thousands of animals. BP was ordered to pay more than
$4.5 billion in damages related to the spill. "We don't know what the overall effects will be--the bacteria and the
plankton and fish were swimming through oil and oil droplets for weeks," he says. "We don't know what the effect
will be but it probably wasn't good." Hazen says the population boom of oil-eating bacteria may have also caused a
similar increase in the number of plankton, which could have further reaching effects up the food chain. While
scientists are working on that question, he says the spill would have been worse if it had occurred in another body of
water. Though oil-eating bacteria have been found in other oceans, the Gulf's bacteria seem

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to degrade oil faster than other species. "We should certainly be worried about how resilient they will
be--there could be a tipping point somewhere that overwhelms the gulf's ability to clean itself up," he says.

A2 Solvency
U.S. Tech capabilities irrelevant, humans will always make errors. Solvency is
impossible
Genovali 13- executive director of Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Misty MacDuffee is Raincoast's wild salmon
program director., The Toronto Star (Chris G. 4/3/2013 "Dirty truth about oil spills; Government platitudes ignore the
reality that human error is inevitabl" Lexis )PHS

The federal government's recently stated intention to establish a "world-class oil spill
response and prevention" plan is clearly designed to assuage public fears in British Columbia over the
dramatic increase in oil tanker traffic that would accompany the Enbridge Northern Gateway project and the Kinder
Morgan Trans Mountain expansion. Energy Minister Joe Oliver's announcement, however, does little to diminish
the risk or change the nature of shipping oil on the B.C. coast. The reality is that human nature and

physical nature are the forces that produce tragedies at sea. Unforeseen events that
inevitably occur in narrow channels, high-traffic corridors and bad weather increase the
risk of oil tanker accidents on B.C.'s coast . Major oil spills show that despite assurances of
low risk and advanced technology, poor decisions still lead to major incidents . Groundings,
collisions, equipment failures and explosions are all cited as causes for accidents, but these are consequences, not
causes. Root causes of incidents are more insidious, with human error, cost-cutting and
miscommunication foremost among them. Lost in all the minister's warm and fuzzy rhetoric about
increased tanker inspections, tanker safety panels and new navigational aids is the fact that human failures account
for up to 80 per cent of the world's oil spills. Underscoring the fact there is no accounting for human error, B.C.'s
largest oil spill response vessel ran aground en route to Oliver's news conference last month. The federal
government's public relations exercise does, however, speak to timing. It occurs before the conclusion of the federal
review process for Northern Gateway, immediately precedes the 24th anniversary of the Exxon Valdez oil spill
disaster and coincides with the launch of a provincial election in which pipelines and oil tankers are certain to figure
prominently in the outcome of the campaign. Oliver's announcement is viewed by many as nothing more than empty
pandering to the legitimate concerns of British Columbians as the phrase "world-class oil spill response and
prevention" is a meaningless platitude. There is no such thing as world-class oil spill response

and prevention. The existing yardstick is wholly inadequate as estimates of open-water recovery by
mechanical equipment recover only 10 to 15 per cent of the oil from a marine spill at best. As we have learned from
previous spills, no response is possible in rough weather, high seas and dangerous conditions. Importantly,

these conditions often precede, or follow, oil spills. Pumping and skimming recovery
options are impossible in over one knot of tide or in waves over two to three metres. In rough
conditions or offshore spills, response is limited to the use of dispersants, as containment is not an option.
Dispersants have proven to be largely unsuccessful on water-in-oil emulsions and on oil that has weathered, and will
not likely be successful on bitumen. Furthermore, reliable knowledge regarding the extent of dispersant toxicity is
lacking. With grossly overstated oil spill response capabilities revealed after the 2010

Deepwater Horizon disaster, it was evident that improvements to oil spill technology have
been negligible. Responders in the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill indicated that cleanup technology was no further
ahead than in the 15 years previous. Responders in the Deepwater Horizon spill claimed that cleanup technologies
were essentially the same as in the Exxon Valdez spill. Thus, despite some minor improvements, oil spill recovery
remains largely unchanged in the last 35 years. Importantly, the spill response in these situations was nothing like
what had been promised by the oil companies. The Canadian Coast Guard has also identified uncertainty around the
effectiveness of spill recovery with the products that Enbridge plans to transport. In its submission to the joint review
panel assessing Northern Gateway, the coast guard stated it was "not aware of a scientific consensus regarding how
these products will behave once introduced into the marine environment or the effects over time of the products
being in the water. The Canadian Coast Guard, therefore, is uncertain whether or not traditional oil spill recovery
methods would be effective." The coast guard's fear that bitumen could submerge or sink has recently been

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reinforced by top Canadian and U.S. chemical scientists. But this would not be the only impact of a diluted bitumen
spill. If a slick hits the water, it would immediately release dangerous components that are

acutely toxic to fish and animals. Currently, no technology can recover those volatile
diluents. The bottom line on the B.C. coast, as has been shown elsewhere, is that having the ability to
respond does not necessarily translate into effective cleanup of an oil spill.

---Regime Change Advantage

Regime Change Inevitable
Raul Castro is going to step down in 2018, so there is no need to lift the embargo
because the regime will change in 5 years

Allam 13 (2-25-13. Hannah Allam is a national correspondent covering foreign affairs and the state department. Even
if Raul Castro steps down in 2018, U.S.-Cuba relations may not thaw
http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/02/25/3253690/even-if-raul-castro-steps-down.html)
WASHINGTON -- Cuban President Raul Castros announcement over the weekend that hell

step down in 2018 after the five-year term he just began ends starts the countdown for U.S.
officials contemplating a thaw in relations with the island nation. But analysts caution that so far
the regimes reforms amount to window dressing . By law, the United States is restricted from
normalizing relations with Cuba as long as the island is ruled by the Castro brothers: ailing
revolutionary leader Fidel, 86, and his brother Raul, 81. Raul Castro said Sunday that not
only would he step aside in 2018, he also would propose term limits and age caps for future
presidents, the latest in a series of moves that are hailed by some Cuba observers as steps
toward reform but dismissed by others as disingenuous. But those are hardly the kinds of breakthrough reforms
that State Department and independent analysts say will be needed to improve U.S.-Cuba relations, which froze after
the Cuban revolution of 1959 that saw Fidel Castro align himself with the communist bloc and the United States
impose a trade embargo that 54 years later remains in place. Each side is making small, subtle moves, but since its a
glacier, its not going to melt overnight, said Alex Crowther, a former U.S. Army colonel and Cuba specialist whose
published commentaries on bilateral relations include a 2009 essay calling for an end to the embargo.
Analysts of U.S.-Cuban relations said that the latest moves are primarily self-serving for the regime, allowing the two
elderly brothers to handpick an acceptable successor before theyre too infirm to administer the country. Raul
Castros anointing of Communist Party stalwart Miguel Diaz-Canel, 52, as the favored successor was the most
important takeaway from the presidents speech, several analysts agreed. It doesnt mean hes being chosen to
succeed Raul, but it does mean theyre leaving the gerontocracy and opening up the aperture to younger leaders,
Crowther said. Diaz-Canel is an impressive career politician, said Jorge Dominguez, a Cuban American professor of
Mexican and Latin American politics and economics at Harvard University. He moved through the Communist Party
ranks, serving as a provincial first secretary, minister of higher education, a member of the partys political bureau
and one of the Castros gaggle of vice presidents. In those roles, he has a wider array of responsibilities that have
positioned him well for the eventual succession, Dominguez said. He has also been traveling abroad with Raul to
add foreign experience to what had been principally a domestic-policy resume. When Castro elevated Diaz-Canel
to first vice president and set a date for his own stepping aside, for the first time there was an
expiration date for Castro rule of Cuba. It is true that other would-be successors appeared from time to
time, but none was anointed, and none had a formal designation as the successor, Dominguez said. Sure, there will
be political fights in the future. Theirs is a political party, after all, and politicians will jockey for power and position.
But Diaz-Canel is now the frontrunner. The Castro brothers know by now that such moves also play well in the
United States, where they just got a public relations boost with the remarks of a U.S. senator who led a delegation to
Cuba this month to seek the release of Alan Gross, an American imprisoned on the island for illegally importing
communications equipment while on a USAID-funded democracy-building program.

A2 Embargo Solves
Lifting the Embargo would help the Castros keep their power
Rooney 10 (Tom Rooney is Republican Representative from Florida Lifting the travel ban would prop up Castro

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regime http://thehill.com/opinion/op-ed/111739-lifting-the-travel-ban-would-prop-up-castro-regime)

The Castro regime is in dire financial trouble. The state-run economy is in crisis, foreign
trade declined by a third this past year, the tourism industry is declining and the
government is several billion dollars in debt to foreign lenders. Meanwhile, Venezuela where
despot Hugo Chavez is usually happy to help out Fidel and Raul Castro is unable to provide much assistance due to
the failings of its own communist rule. Emboldened by these developments, Cubas dissidents have grown
increasingly active, sensing change is finally imminent. The Castros, not ones to go down easily,

have responded by desperately seeking new sources of revenue to keep their floundering
regime alive. They are hoping to land the big prize an easing of sanctions by the United
States. This would provide the hard currency they need to continue their evil, authoritarian
rule. Unfortunately, on June 30 the House Agriculture Committee played right into the Castros hands, approving a
bill that would lift the travel ban on Cuba and bolster the Castro regime with American tourism dollars. Why
would we lift the travel ban now and let our tourism dollars prop up the Castro regime?
Lifting the ban while this regime is on the ropes would just be another bailout only this
time, wed be bailing out a brutal dictatorship on the brink of collapsing. Every dollar spent
by American tourists in Cuba would help the regimes bottom line, providing the Castros
with the resources they need to maintain their army, secret police and political prisons.
According to the State Department, Cuba is a state sponsor of terrorism with close ties to
Iran and North Korea. The country also provides a safe haven for terrorists from around
the world. Lifting the travel ban would funnel American tourism dollars to finance statesponsored terror and help provide refuge to terrorists, jeopardizing our national security.
As a congressman from Florida, I cannot in good conscience support any bill that lets American dollars
provide refuge for terrorists 90 miles from the shores of our state. Shockingly, this bill
requires no human-rights concessions from Cuba. The proposal rewards the Castros for decades of
human-rights abuses, and it opens relations with a regime that routinely imprisons citizens and journalists who
disagree with their government. This bill is a symbolic abandonment of our commitment to the
brave pro-democracy movement in Cuba. According to democracy advocate Freedom House, Cuba holds
at least 167 political prisoners. Just a few months ago, political prisoner Orlando Zapata Tamayo died after a hunger
strike. And today, American citizen Alan Gross is being held prisoner without charges for his efforts to help the small
Jewish community in Cuba use cell phones and laptops. Supporters of this bill claim allowing
American tourists into Cuba would weaken the regime. History does not support this claim .
European, Canadian and Latin American visitors have been visiting the island regularly since the 1990s. While these
visits have brought money to support the government, they have done nothing to undermine Castro or improve the
lives of Cuban people. In fact, not only has the influx of European and Canadian tourists failed to bring greater
freedom to Cuba, the tourism industry has instead become a tool for the Castro regime to expand its control over the
Cuban people. The Castros have used their control over the tourism industry to create a

national system of apartheid and segregation. They forbid Cuban citizens from entering the
hotels, resorts, beaches, restaurants and stores where foreign tourists visit. The government
sharply limits the interactions tourists can have with the Cuban people. The State Department warns against
interacting with Cuban citizens, because any interaction could be monitored by the secret police and can subject that
citizen to harassment, detention or other repressive actions. The Castro-run tourism industry abuses the most
innocent and defenseless of its population by openly promoting child prostitution. There is no evidence to suggest
liberalizing our travel policies with Cuba would fare any better than the efforts made by Europe or Canada.
Ultimately, we have a choice. We can strengthen the pressure on the Castro regime and help bring about a postCastro government prepared to leave communism behind. Or we can lift sanctions, give the Communist party the
means to persist and legitimize their horrible treatment of the Cuban people over the last 50 years. I support

sending a clear message to the next generation of Cuban leaders after the Castros: They can
maintain a defeated evil regime, or be welcomed as a free nation with the United States as
partner.

A2 Human Rights Impact

There are specific trades allowed under the embargo that allow medicine supplies so

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we dont need to lift the embargo to solve this issue.

U.S. Department of the Treasury 11 (1-18-2011 Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act of
2000 (TSRA) Program http://www.treasury.gov/services/Pages/tsra_info.aspx)

The Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act of 2000 , Title IX of Public Law 106 387
(October 28, 2000) (the "TSRA"), provides that the President shall terminate any unilateral
agricultural sanction or unilateral medical sanction in effect as of the date of enactment of
the TSRA. The TSRA does not direct the termination of any unilateral agricultural sanction
or unilateral medical sanction that prohibits, restricts, or conditions the provision or use of
any agricultural commodity, medicine, or medical device that is controlled on the United
States Munitions List, controlled on any control list established by the Export
Administration Act of 1979 or any successor statute , or used to facilitate the development or
production of chemical or biological weapons or weapons of mass destruction. Section 906 of the TSRA further
requires that the export of agricultural commodities, medicine, or medical devices to Cuba or
to the government of a country that has been determined by the Secretary of State, under Section 620A of the Foreign
Assistance Act of 1961 (22 U.S.C. 2371), section 6(j)(1) of the Export Administration Act of 1979 (50 U.S.C. app.
2405(j)(1)), or section 40(d) of the Arms Export Control Act (22 U.S.C. 2780(d)), to have provided support repeatedly
for acts of international terrorism, or to any other entity in such a country, shall only be made pursuant to one-year
licenses issued by the United States Government.

***Private Sector CP
1NC Shell

Text: The United States Federal Government should allow for the export and sale of
goods and services to businesses, agricultural cooperatives and individuals engaged in
certifiably independent economic activity
Private Sector solves economic reforms
Lopez Levy and French, December 2, 2010 10:12 a.m. EST
Special to CNN Arturo Lopez Levy is a lecturer and a Ph.D. candidate at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies of
the University of Denver, Colorado. Anya Landau French directs the New American Foundation's U.S.-Cuba Policy
Initiative.
Taking a page from the Chinese playbook, the Cuban Communist Party is embracing development of "special
economic zones to promote development." And there are calls to decentralize economic activities such as food
production and services to the provinces and municipalities as much as possible. The party document even hints at
the possibility of a real estate market in which Cubans could once again be able to buy and sell their houses. But
nothing signals the end of the old model more than the party's plan to phase out the famous ration card. None of
these changes will be easy to implement. Raul Castro's government is attempting to reform the economy and the
party in the face of increased demands for participation and socioeconomic development from all segments of society,
especially the youth. To succeed, the economic reformers must overcome a large, self-interested bureaucracy with
decades of bad habits to give up, a budgetary crunch, a lack of capital, capacity and regulatory experience in dealing
with a much larger private sector, and the longstanding fear in Havana, real or imagined, that any economic opening
is an invitation to the United States and particularly the Miami, Florida, exiles to come in and exploit the place. For
all these reasons, the next four months offer the United States a critical window of opportunity to craft a smarter
policy toward the island, one that avoids undercutting reformers in Havana and that could even help ensure the
success of deeper and necessary economic reforms on the island. This kind of engagement with Communist countries
is nothing new for the United States. In Vietnam, a nation where 58,000 Americans died in a war against a highly
nationalist Communist Party, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has spent billions of dollars
assisting a transition to a market economy, the development of contract capacity and the expansion of the
Vietnamese private sector.The United States has worked with the Vietnamese government to prevent hurricane
damage, pandemics, illegal trade and deforestation, worked with its Supreme Court to protect property rights, and

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has promoted high-technology enterprise in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. No one is excluded from these programs
for being a member of Vietnam's Communist Party or for having fought against the United States. Today in Vietnam,
the United States promotes change through detente. U.S. Vietnam policy respects the country's sovereignty while
encouraging market-oriented economic development as the best way to promote human rights in that country. In so
doing, the United States has never given up the democratic values underpinning its foreign policy. It operates,
however, with respect for international law and sensitivity to the nationalist culture of Vietnam. Why not adopt the
Vietnam model for U.S. Cuba policy? President Obama inherited, and has done little to change, his predecessor's
regime change policy obsessed with a (highly unlikely) rapid political transition that by definition excludes the United
States from exerting any positive influence over the important changes being contemplated in Havana today. Unlike
our allies in Spain and Brazil, who have offered Cuba assistance in developing a more robust private sector, the only
U.S. government dollars that reach the island are funneled through U.S.- and third-country nongovernmental
organizations to work with a small number of political and human rights activists -- at a time when millions of
Cubans are focused on how to provide for their families in increasingly uncertain economic times.With
unprecedented Cuban reforms in the offing that could triple the island's private sector and create economic
opportunities for the United States and Cubans living in the diaspora, the Obama administration has shown little
interest.By failing to open broader cultural and educational U.S. travel to the island (U.S. regulations forbid most
Americans from visiting the island), precisely when thousands of visitors could nourish the emerging private sector of
hostels, restaurants, travel agents, taxi drivers and many others, the United States is squandering an opportunity to
help these reforms take hold.Cuba's Communist Party is laying the foundations of a post-Fidel Cuba. Raul Castro has
also called for a party conference late next year, where the party will select its leaders, and it's expected that Fidel
Castro would step down as first secretary of the Cuban Communist Party. This is the time to influence the outcome of
its internal debates. Will the Obama administration seize the moment? Or will it prove the adage true, that when it
comes to Cuba, Washington never ceases to miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

Uniqueness Economy High

Cubas economy is progressing

Sweig, and Bustamante, July-August 2013 Foreign Affairs, COPYRIGHT 2013 Council on Foreign Relations,
Inc. http://www.cfr.org/

At rst glance, Cuba's basic political and economic structures appear as durable as the
midcentury American cars still roaming its streets. The Communist Party remains in power, the
state dominates the economy, and murals depicting the face of the long-dead revolutionary Che
Guevara still appear on city walls. Predictions that the island would undergo a rapid
transformation in the manner of China or Vietnam, let alone the former Soviet bloc, have
routinely proved to be bunk. But Cuba does look much different today than it did ten or 20 years
ago, or even as recently as 2006, when severe illness compelled Fidel Castro, the country's
longtime president, to step aside. Far from treading water, Cuba has entered a new era, the
features of which defy easy classication or comparison to transitions elsewhere. Three years
ago, Castro caused a media restorm by quipping to an American journalist that "the Cuban
model doesn't even work for us anymore." Tacitly embracing this assessment, Fidel's brother
Raul Castro, the current president, is leading a gradual but, for Cuba, ultimately radical overhaul
of the relationship between the state, the individual, and society, all without cutting the socialist
umbilical cord. So far, this unsettled state of affairs lacks complete denition or a convincing
label. "Actualization of the Cuban social and economic model," the Communist Party's preferred
euphemism, oversells the degree of ideological cohesion while smoothing over the implications
for society and politics. For now, the emerging Cuba might best be characterized as a publicprivate hybrid in which multiple forms of production, property ownership, and investment, in
addition to a slimmer welfare state and greater personal freedom, will coexist with military-run
state companies in strategic sectors of the economy and continued one-party rule. A new
migration law, taking effect this year, provides a telling example of Cuba's ongoing reforms. Until
recently, the Cuban government required its citizens to request official permission before
traveling abroad, and doctors, scientists, athletes, and other professionals faced additional
obstacles.

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Obama is taking steps to engage with Cuba

LeoGrande Obama's liberalization of Cuba travel regulations a step towards deeper engagement 11:02 PM ET
William M. LeoGrande [Dean, School of Public Affairs at American University]

"President Obama's new regulations liberalizing travel to Cuba represent a key step forward in
his policy of engagement. The new regulations eliminate the barriers to academic, educational,
and cultural exchange imposed by President George W. Bush in 2003 and 2004. Those barriers
eliminated most contact with Cuban civil society, which had expanded signicantly under
President Bill Clinton.
President Obama came to office having criticized U.S. policy toward Cuba for fifty years of failure, and promising to
try something different. His goal was to improve inter-government relations by engaging in dialogue on issues of
mutual interest, expanding people-to-people contacts, and creating conditions to encourage political and economic
reform on the island. As first steps, in April 2009, he effectively eliminated all restrictions on Cuban-Americans' right
to travel to Cuba and to send remittances to family members. In May, he invited the Cuban government to resume
regular diplomatic dialogue on immigration and other issues, an offer which Cuba accepted.

Solvency Economy

Private reforms can replace the necessity for lifting the embargo
Mark P. Sullivan: June ,12, 2013 Specialist in Latin American Affairs, Congressional Research Services (CRS) Cuba:
U.S. Policy and Issues for the 113th Congress http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R43024.pdf
Over the past decade, there have been efforts in Congress to ease U.S. sanctions, with, one orboth houses at times
approving amendments to appropriations measures that would have eased U.S. sanctions on Cuba. Until 2009, these
provisions were stripped out of final enacted measures, in part because of presidential veto threats. In March 2009,
Congress took action to ease some restrictions on travel to Cuba, marking the first time that Congress has eased Cuba
sanctions since the approval of the Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act of 2000. In light of Fidel
Castros departure as head of government and the gradual economic changes being made by Ral Castro, some
observers called for a reexamination of U.S. policy toward Cuba. In this new context, two broad policy approaches
have been advanced to contend with change in Cuba: a status-quo approach that maintains the U.S. dual-track policy
of isolating the Cuban government while providing support to the Cuban people; and an approach aimed at
influencing the attitudes of the Cuban government and Cuban society through increased contact and engagement. In
general, those who advocate easing U.S. sanctions on Cuba make several policy arguments. They assert that if the
United States moderated its policy toward Cubathrough increased travel, trade, and dialoguethen the seeds of
reform would be planted, which would stimulate forces for peaceful change on the island. They stress the importance
to the United States of avoiding violent change in Cuba, with the prospect of a mass exodus to the United States. They
argue that since the demise of Cubas communist government does not appear imminent, even without Fidel Castro
at the helm, the United States should espouse a more pragmatic approach in trying to bring about change in Cuba.
Supporters of changing policy also point to broad international support for lifting the U.S. embargo, to the missed
opportunities for U.S. businesses because of the unilateral nature of the embargo, and to the increased suffering of
the Cuban people because of the embargo. Proponents of change also argue that the United States should be
consistent in its policies with the worlds few remaining communist governments, including China and Vietnam On
the other side, opponents of changing U.S. policy maintain that the current two-track policy of isolating Cuba, but
reaching out to the Cuban people through measures of support, is the best means for realizing political change in
Cuba. They point out that the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act of 1996 sets forth the steps that Cuba
needs to take in order for the United States to normalize relations. They argue that softening U.S. policy at this time
without concrete Cuban reforms would boost the Castro government, politically and economically, and facilitate the
survival of the communist regime. Opponents of softening U.S. policy argue that the United States should stay the
course in its commitment to democracy and human rights in Cuba, and that sustained sanctions can work.
Opponents of loosening U.S. sanctions further argue that Cubas failed economic policies, not the U.S. embargo, are
the causes of Cubas difficult living conditions.

Economic growth in Cuba is restricted by sanctions

Caribbean Update Web. 2 July 2013 "Economy grows." Feb. 2013: 6+. Global Issues In Context
ECONOMY GROWS. Despite a decades-old trade embargo imposed by the United States, Cuba's economy

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continues to grow, notching up 3.1% in 2012, reports Caribbean360.com (Jan. 3, 2012):This was 3.4% lower than
planned, said Adel Yzquierdo, Minister of Economy and Planning. In his report to the lawmakers gathered at the
Havana's Convention Center, Yzquierdo described as favorable the country's performance, despite not reaching
expected growth. He mentioned several sectors that did not reach the planned output such as construction,
production of nickel and light industry, in the latter, the serious maintenance problems the industry is facing led to
the non-fulfilment of plans. On the construction sector, he spoke of several problems Cuba must focus on next
year;He added there is an urgency to keep construction materials in the market in order to solve Cuba's housing
stock deficit. He noted there has been an increase on construction materials supplies to the population, but still they
lack the needed quality and availability. Unemployment now is 3.8%, and there was 1% growth in salaries and
employment thanks mainly to the self-employed sector, he said. Cargo transportation grew 8.9 % but mass
transportation decreased nationwide. Yzquierdo said investments were 19% short due to inefficiencies in planning
and control, and added there have been undue delays in the execution of projects. Cuba has undertaken widespread
economic reform in recent years geared toward counter-acting the degenerative effects of the five decade-long
embargo imposed by the United States that hampers Cuba from capitalizing on trading goods and services in the
lucrative market of its largest neighbor to the north.

Shifting towards private sector spurs economic growth

Cave 2012 Easing of Restraints in Cuba Renews Debate on U.S. EmbargoBy DAMIEN CAVE (Damien Cave is a
foreign correspondent for The New York Times, based in Mexico City. Along with two other reporters, he covers Mexico,
Central America and the Caribbean), Published: November 19, 2012 New York Times
HAVANA If I could just get a lift, said Francisco Lpez, imagining the addition of a hydraulic elevator as he stood
by a rusted Russian sedan in his mechanics workshop here. All he needed was an investment from his brother in
Miami or from a Cuban friend there who already sneaks in brake pads and other parts for him.The problem:
Washingtons 50-year-old trade embargo, which prohibits even the most basic business dealings across
the 90 miles separating Cuba from the United States. Indeed, every time Mr. Lpezs friend in Florida accepts
payment for a car part destined for Cuba, he puts himself at risk of a fine of up to $65,000.
With Cuba cautiously introducing free-market changes that have legalized hundreds of thousands of small private
businesses over the past two years, new economic bonds between Cuba and the United States have formed, creating
new challenges, new possibilities and a more complicated debate over the embargo.
The longstanding logic has been that broad sanctions are necessary to suffocate the totalitarian government of Fidel
and Ral Castro. Now, especially for many Cubans who had previously stayed on the sidelines in the battle over Cuba
policy, a new argument against the embargo is gaining currency that the tentative move toward capitalism by the
Cuban government could be sped up with more assistance from Americans.

Castro providing more private sector reform, cut 500,000 government jobs
The Vietnam News Agency 8 Feb. 2011.. Web. 8 July 2013. "Cuba expands private economic sector." General
OneFile http://go.galegroup.com/ps/i.do?id=GALE%7CA248723958&v=2.1&u=mlin_b_bps&it=r&p=ITOF&sw=w
February 08, 2011 (VNA) -- The Cuban Government has announced the recent grant of licenses of operation for over
80,000 private businesses as part of an overall plan to improve the national economy. The resumption of licensing
private businesses has been occurring since October last year, and is aimed at expanding private business in 178
categories of services in order to provide jobs for a majority of 500,000 redundant workers set to be laid off from the
State-owned economic sector. Economists predicted a surge in self-employment when the massive lay-off move
comes into force this month. The island country of 11.2 million has a workforce of 5 million, with 3 million employed
in the State sector. The Government has planned to lay off 500,000 public workers up to late March and another
500,000 later on in order to increase the economy's competition and salaries for public workers. Havana also made
public its plan to disburse 130 million USD this year to import production materials and other products necessary for
expanding the private economic model. The Government is also to provide credit information for private business
people. Deputy Minister of Information Industry and Communication Jorge Luis Perdomo on February 7 said the
ministry might sell 27 percent of the stock of the State-run telecom group Etecsa to foreign businesses after its Italian
partner, Telecom, sold its shares back to the Cuban telecom monopoly for 706 million USD in January. Perdomo
added that the Cuban National Assembly is expected to pass the first ever telecom law this year in service of sector
development. Also on February 7, an international information technology and telecommunication fair opened in
Havana, drawing over 2,000 experts from 35 countries across the world.

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Solvency Relations

Private Sector bolsters relations between U.S. and Latin America

White, Robert E. . 6 July 2013 U.S. Foreign Relations "A chance to remake U.S.-Cuba relations." International Herald
Tribune 9 Mar. 2013. Global Issues In Context. Web.
After our counterrevolutionary efforts failed to end the Salvadoran conflict, the Defense Department asked its
research institute, the RAND Corporation, what had gone wrong. RAND analysts found that U.S. policy makers had
refused to accept the obvious truth that the insurgents were rebelling against social injustice and state terror. As a
result, "we pursued a policy unsettling to ourselves, for ends humiliating to the Salvadorans and at a cost
disproportionate to any conventional conception of the national interest." Over the subsequent quarter-century, a
series of profound political, social and economic changes have undermined the traditional power bases in Latin
America and, with them, longstanding regional institutions like the Organization of American States. The
organization, which is headquartered in Washington and which excluded Cuba in 1962, was seen as irrelevant by
Chavez. He promoted the creation of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States - which excludes the
United States and Canada - as an alternative. At a regional meeting that included Cuba and excluded the United
States, Chavez said that "the most positive thing for the independence of our continent is that we meet alone without
the hegemony of empire." Chavez was masterful at manipulating America's antagonism toward Fidel Castro as a
rhetorical stick with which to attack the United States as an imperialist aggressor, an enemy of progressive
change, interested mainly in treating Latin America as a vassal continent, a source of cheap
commodities and labor. Like its predecessors, the Obama administration has given few signs that it has grasped
the magnitude of these changes or cares about their consequences. After President Obama took office in 2009, Latin
America's leading statesman at the time, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, then the president of Brazil, urged Obama to
normalize relations with Cuba. Lula, as he is universally known, correctly identified our Cuba policy as
the chief stumbling block to renewed ties with Latin America, as it had been since the very early years of the
Castro regime. After the failure of the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion, Washington set out to accomplish by stealth and
economic strangulation what it had failed to do by frontal attack. But the clumsy mix of covert action and porous
boycott succeeded primarily in bringing shame on the United States and turning Castro into a folk hero. And even
now, despite the relaxing of travel restrictions and Ra[pounds sterling]l Castro's announcement that he will retire in
2018, the implacable hatred of many within the Cuban exile community continues. The fact that two of the three
Cuban-American members of the Senate - Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas - are rising stars in the
Republican Party complicates further the potential for a recalibration of Cuban-American relations. (The third
member, Senator Robert Menendez, Democrat of New Jersey, is the new chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee, but his power has been weakened by a continuing ethics controversy.) Are there any other examples in
the history of diplomacy where the leaders of a small, weak nation can prevent a great power from acting in its own
best interest merely by staying alive? The re-election of President Obama, and the death of Chavez, give
America a chance to reassess the irrational hold on our imaginations that Fidel Castro has exerted for five decades.
The president and his new secretary of state, John Kerry, should quietly reach out to Latin American leaders like
President Juan Manuel Santos of Colombia and Jose Miguel Insulza, secretary general of the Organization of
American States. The message should be simple: The president is prepared to show some flexibility on Cuba and asks
your help. Such a simple request could transform the Cuban issue from a bilateral problem into a multilateral
challenge. It would then be up to Latin Americans to devise a policy that would help Cuba achieve a sufficient
measure of democratic change to justify its reintegration into a hemisphere composed entirely of elected
governments. If, however, our present policy paralysis continues, we will soon see the emergence of
two rival camps, the United States versus Latin America. While Washington would continue to enjoy
friendly relations with individual countries like Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, the vision of Roosevelt
and Kennedy of a hemisphere of partners cooperating in matters of common concern would be
reduced to a historical footnote.

Private Sector solves relations through economic growth

Shank 11 Economic Reform Key to Resetting the US-Cuba Relationship The growth of the private sector in Cuba
spells new opportunities for US firms Submitted by:Michael Shank (is a doctoral candidate at George Mason
University's School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution and an Associate at the Global Partnership for
the Prevention of Armed Conflict)., Posted:Nov 16, 2011 06:03 PM EST,

The report, titled Cubas New Resolve: Economic Reform and its Implications for US Policy,
shows that the economic policy trends in Cuba parallel the very conversations in Congress and

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throughout US state legislatures, whether its reducing the numbers of employees on the state
payroll, reducing government spending for social safety nets or supporting small businesses.In
fact, President Castro is spurring new private sector enterprise, enabling Cubans to open small
businesses, hire workers and create farming and manufacturing cooperatives that will function as
small businesses. Tea Party types in the US and proponents of smaller government should like
what Castro is doing. Hes cutting one million workers on the state payroll, reducing ration card
allocations and ending some state subsidies entirely. Castro is also decentralizing government by
handing over state responsibilities to provincial and municipal leaderships with the aim to build
capacity and implement decisions locally.All of this should make Washington happy. Yet while US
President Barack Obama is on board the US-Cuba relationship transformation train, doing more
to improve US-Cuba relations than recent predecessors, there are still ample roadblocks in
Congress keeping our two countries from increased economic cooperation. Dont forget that
Cuba, until recently, was the United States' largest rice export market and fth largest export
market in Latin America for US farm exports. Furthermore, Cuba holds the potential for $20
billion in trade with America over a three-year term. Our economy could clearly benet from
better relations.

U.S. is losing Cuba to other countries-must act now

Paul Nash, 24 May 2013 Contributor | The Diplomatic Courier How the Chinese are Helping to Transform Cuba,
Again

China is Cubas second largest trading partner after Venezuela, and Cuba is Chinas
largest trading partner in the Caribbean, with bilateral trade now standing at around
$2 billion. Beijing wants to help Cuba push through market-oriented economic reforms, knowing
from its own experience over the past three decades that private sector entrepreneurial activity
can stimulate foreign investment, build national capital and promote domestic consumption. To
this end, China has granted Cuba numerous long-term low or interest-free loans to support
development and maintain nancial and social stability through the reform process. It has also
undertaken signicant technology transfers and entered into joint ventures in farming, light
industry, and tourism.Cuba has started the reform process focussed on its biggest export
industries. It has, for example, begun restructuring its ailing sugar industry by abolishing the
sugar ministry and creating Azcuba, a state holding company consisting of 13 provincial sugar
companies that operate 56 sugar mills and 850 sugarcane farms. Azcuba signed foreign
investment agreements with companies from Brazil and Britain in 2012 to modernize
harvesting equipment and build biomass energy plants. Cuba exports about 400,000
tonnes of sugar annually to China, more than half the amount it produces for domestic
consumption.Chinas interest in Cuba is, of course, inseparable from the Caribbeans natural
resources and those of Latin America more broadly. The Sino-Cuban economic fraternity, from
Beijings viewpoint, is largely pragmatic rather than idealistic. Beijing has demonstrated that it
will conduct business with left-leaning governments like Venezuela and Ecuador as readily as
with right-leaning governments like Chile and Colombia. The Sino-Cuban partnership may
represent a lost opportunity for the United States in promoting liberal democracy in the Western
Hemisphere. But it may also represent a path to normalized relations if China can help Cubas
economy reform such that it, like Vietnams, no longer justies the continuation of a decades-old
U.S. trade embargo on the basis that Cubas economy is dominated or controlled by
international communism

Solvency Regime Change

Lifting embargo does nothing to stop regime

Ron Radosh March 18th, 2013 - 8:20 pm The Time to Help Cubas Brave Dissidents Is Now: Why the Embargo Must
Not be Lifted by

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For liberals and leftists in the United States, the main demand they always raise is to lift the
embargo. According to the argument they regularly make, the embargo has to be lifted for the
following reasons: 1) it is not effective; 2) it gives the regime the excuse to argue to the Cuban
people that the poverty they suffer is the result of not being able to trade with the United States
and other nations honoring the embargo; 3) lifting the embargo would hence deprive Fidel and
Raul Castro from their main propaganda argument, revealing that the reasons for a collapsed
economy are the regimes own policies; and 4) trade and travel from the United States would
expose Cubans to Americans and others who live in freedom, help curb anti-Americanism, and
eventually lead to slow reform of the system.
What these liberals and leftists leave out is that this demand lifting the embargo is also the
number one desire of the Cuban Communists.

Private Sector solves for democratic reform in Cuba

Juan Carlos Hidalgo 2010 is a Policy Analyst on Latin America at the Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity.
September 14, 4:58PM the Cato Institute Cuba Needs A Swift Transition Towards Capitalism
http://www.cato.org/blog/cuba-needs-swift-transition-towards-capitalism

The big question is whether the meager non-state sector can absorb such an influx of workers in
such a short period of time. My take is that the only way Cuba can accomplish this is by
aggressively liberalizing its economy: privatizing most industries and farmland, cutting red tape,
freeing prices, lowering taxes (which fall heavily on the tiny private sector), and getting rid of
thousands of restrictions on private businesses that currently thwart entrepreneurship. This, of
course, means abandoning altogether the current communist model and moving towards a
capitalist system. So far, the reforms introduced by Ral Castro since becoming president three
years ago have been far too timid and in some instances even counterproductive. As Oleh
Havrylyshyn, former Ukrainian deputy minister of nance, wrote in a paper published by Cato
three years ago on the transformation of post-communist economies , rapid reforms (as opposed
to gradual ones) bring about better results in terms of higher growth rates, lower unemployment,
higher investment, etc. Interestingly, Havrylyshyn also found that all of the rapid reformers
developed into liberal democracies, whereas in many of the gradual reformers small groups of
super-wealthy oligarchs captured the state and dominated its economic decisionmaking. The
Cuban ruling elite cannot afford to waste time. Very soon, hundreds of thousands of Cubans will
be looking for a job in the dilapidated private sector. Social unrest could easily erupt if their
search for a job or occupation goes unfullled. In the end, only a swift transition towards
capitalism can rescue the Cuban people.

Only through private reforms can Cubans gain independence from regime
Franks 10 Jeff Franks, HAVANA Cuba contributer for Reuters Limited| Fri Sep 24, 2010 1:57pm EDT,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/09/24/us-cuba-reform-idUSTRE68N3OG20100924

Cubans will be able to open restaurants, repair homes and cars, train animals, rent out homes,
give massages, provide transportation, work as clowns and open many other businesses, some
currently prohibited by the communist-led government. The plan, outlined in Communist Party
newspaper Granma, said the government was considering providing bank credits to new
entrepreneurs, who will be able to hire employees for the rst time since small businesses were
nationalized in 1968. While the measures steal from capitalism, the key goal of the reform is to
"defend, maintain and continue perfecting socialism" by increasing productivity, Granma said.
Self employment, it said, gives a worker "another way of feeling useful with his personal effort."
Cuba has said it will lay off 500,000 workers from state payrolls and, starting in October, issue
250,000 licenses for self-employment to help create private sector jobs for them.Another
200,000 government jobs will shift over to employee-run cooperatives and leasing arrangements.

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More than 85 percent of the Cuban labor force, or over 5 million people, worked for the
government at the close of 2009, according to official gures. The moves are the biggest so far
by President Raul Castro as he tries to improve the troubled economy and, for the most part, are
welcomed by cash-strapped Cubans tired of getting by on an average salary equivalent to about
$20. "Raul has done in a few years what Fidel should have done long ago," restaurant worker Luis
Alberto Noa, 44, told Reuters, referring to former Cuban leader Fidel Castro. But, he added, it will
only be effective if the government "does not tax the new businesses too heavily."A Cuban
economist told Reuters he was optimistic about the island's nancial future for the rst time in
years."The changes are all about increasing productivity, which is what we've been saying for
years," he said

Solvency Drilling

Cuba is looking to the U.S. to drill in order to reduce their dependency on Venezuelan
oil
Nick Snow 11 5/11/2012 WASHINGTON, DC, May By OGJ Washington Editor
Repsol SA continues drilling Cubas rst offshore oil well as some US government agencies, oil
and gas organizations, and environmental groups press to ease restrictions that would keep US
companies from responding if the well blows out and sets off a spill, experts at a Center for
International Policy seminar said. They reported some progress as more federal officials become
aware of the problem, but indicated that much more needs to be done.No one is predicting a
catastrophe, emphasized William K. Reilly, co-chairman of the presidential commission that
investigated the 2010 Macondo deepwater well incident and oil spill. He said Cuba and Repsol
are moving more slowly than normal to keep matters under control, but the US still has not taken
the nal necessary steps to let US companies respond if the well blows out and begins to leak
crude.Historically, its been appropriate to talk about Cuba only after the next election, Reilly
observed, adding that the White House was not happy when he led a delegation to that country
after the presidential commission on the Macondo well spill completed its investigation. US
President Barack Obama does not need congressional approval to modify sanctions against Cuba
so US companies could respond if there was a spill, he said. Contractors in Cuba have had to
scour markets worldwide for parts, noted Lee Hunt, who recently retired after 22 years as
president of the International Association of Drilling Contractors, during the seminar at the
Carnegie Endowment for Peace. They havent had access to the best and most recent versions
of the equipment theyre using. Saipem SPA had to return a new prevention stack to use there
when it learned that it was made in the US, and had to buy one which had been in service
elsewhere, he said.But a US company that wanted to provide services for the current Cuban
offshore drilling operation recently got a very broad license from the US Department of
Commerces Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) in 3 days, compared with other rms having
to wait 6 months for a restricted license, Hunt said. OFAC now says it would be able to issue
licenses within 24 hr in the event of a spill, he added.

Private Companies could help Cuba by providing technical capabilities for successful
drilling
William F. Jasper 2010 [is known as one of America's top investigative journalists and is senior editor for the New
American.] Offshore Drilling, Opposing View Points, Gale

Energy dependence has always been an Achilles' heel for Fidel Castro's decrepit Communist
regime. From 1959 to 1991, Castro relied on his Soviet sponsors for subsidized oil supplies. More
recently, he has been forced to turn to Comrade Hugo Chvez of Venezuela, who has been more
than willing to supply his fellow Marxist with discounted oil, to the tune of about 98,000 barrels
per day, more than half of Cuba's daily consumption. But Cuba is set to break out of its decadesold status of energy dependence and economic backwardness. It is sitting on an offshore

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energy treasure chest that is estimated to contain 4.6 billion barrels of oil and 9.8
trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Over a dozen nations and oil companies have negotiated
joint ventures with Havana [the capital of Cuba]or are in the process of doing soto cash in on
these deep-water energy sources. So, Cuba, China, Venezuela, Brazil, Canada, India, and others
may soon be beneting from the energy reserves a few miles off our coast. But the United
States, which is even more dependent on foreign oil than Cuba, is sitting on the sidelines. Unlike
Cuba, which does not have the technical ability to drill for oil and gas on its own, the
United States has always been a leader in deep-ocean exploration and drilling.
According to the U.S. Minerals Management Service, America's deep seas on the Outer
Continental Shelf (OCS) contain 420 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (the U.S. consumes 23 TCF
per year) and 86 billion barrels of oil (the U.S. imports 4.5 billion per year). However, federal
government policies are preventing us from accessing that treasure trove of desperately needed
energy. No other nation in the world prohibits development of its offshore energy. But, incredibly,
federal prohibitions on OCS drilling over the past 25 years have caused the United States to send
trillions of dollars to overseas oil producers and have jeopardized our national security by making
us dangerously dependent on foreign energy sources. According to the House Resources
Committee [officially the Committee on Natural Resources], the United States sends around $500
billion annually to foreign energy producers, which is a major cause of our huge annual trade
decits and the continuing precipitous loss of our manufacturing base.

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Politics Net Benefit

Obama is focusing on easing restrictions now
Michael D. Shear, Apr 13, 2009 [writer for the Washington Post, category The Foggy Bottom] Posted at 12:16 PM ET on
Obama Lifts Some Restrictions on Cuba

President Obama is lifting some restrictions on Cuban Americans' contact with Cuba and
allowing U.S. telecom companies to operate there, opening up the communist island nation to
more cellular and satellite service, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs announced at his regular
news brieng today. The decision does not lift the trade embargo on Cuba but eases the prohibitions
that have restricted Cuban Americans from visiting their relatives and has limited what they can send
back home.It also allows companies to establish ber-optic and satellite links between the United
States and Cuba and will permit U.S. companies to be licensed for roaming agreements in
Cuba.Communications of those kinds have been prohibited under tough rules put in place by George
W. Bush's administration to pressure for democratic change in the island nation.But under the new
policy promoted by Obama, satellite radio companies and television providers will also be able to
enter into transactions necessary to provide service to Cuban citizens.It will also provide an exception
to the trade embargo to allow personal cell phones,computes and satellite receivers to be sent to
Cuba."All who embrace core democratic values long for a Cuba that respects the basic
human, political and economic rights of all of its citizens," Gibbs said. "President Obama
believes the measure he has taken today, will help make that goal a reality." As a candidate, Obama
promised to seek closer relations with Cuba, and courted Cuban voters in the key state of Florida. As
president, he has signaled that he intends to move toward a greater openness.Sen. John F. Kerry (DMass.), chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, praised the move. "President Obama has made
the right call. . . ," he said in a statement this afternoon. "These changes are both compassionate
and responsive to reality." A White House aide said the president believes that democratic change will
come to the Cuban nation more quickly if the United States reaches out to the people of Cuba and
their relatives in the United States.But the move is highly controversial, especially among those who
supported Bush's hardline policy and view the restrictions as a way of spurring political change.The
news drew quick criticism from Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) and his brother, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart
(R-Fla.), who called it a "serious mistake." In a statement posted online, they said, "Unilateral
concessions to the dictatorship embolden it to further isolate, imprison and brutalize pro-democracy
activists, to continue to dictate which Cubans and Cuban-Americans are able to enter the island, and
this unilateral concession provides the dictatorship with critical nancial support." Obama's
administration takes a somewhat different view than the Bush administration, but has
resisted a wholesale elimination of the trade embargo and travel ban, which has been
pushed for by some in Congress.The announcement comes as the president prepares to leave
Thursday for the Summit of the America's in Trinidad, and a stop in Mexico.

Although lifting the embargo isnt possible now, allowing private sector trade is
possible due to political support
Mark Knoller April 20, 2009 CBS News White House correspondent, 2:50 AM
Obama: I'll Stick With Embargo For Now

. President Obama freely admits that the U.S. trade embargo of Cuba "hasn't worked the
way we wanted it to" although it's been in effect for nearly 50 years
Even so, he made it clear today it will stay in place until Cuban leaders take more overt
action to free political prisoners, and permit freedom of the press and democratic
elections."The Cuban people aren't free and that's our lodestone, our north star when it

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comes to our policy in Cuba," said Mr. Obama. During a trip-ending news conference at
the site of the Summit of the Americas (where Cuba's exclusion and the U.S. embargo
were highly-contentious issues), the president said his concerns about Cuba are "not
simply something to be brushed aside." That puts his policy in line with all of his
predecessors, who resisted calls at home and abroad, even from members of Congress,
that the embargo be lifted.Defending the exclusion of Cuba from the Summit, President
Obama pointed out that all 34 leaders there were democratically-elected, which
"conferred legitimacy" on them. He said that is not the case with Cuba's leaders.
He said his administration won't change its policy toward Havana "overnight,"
but he feels he has sent a signal to Cuba that he wants to see a "transformation."Some
critics of the embargo say it has more to do with domestic politics than diplomatic
principle. There would be political hell to pay in Florida, New Jersey and other places with
sizeable Cuban-American populations if a sitting President or other politician advocated
lifting the embargo before the Castro regime were overthrown and democracy allowed to
take root.The critics view it as hypocritical that U.S. policy allows enthusiastic trade with
China, a Communist nation where political oppression is no less than in Cuba. It's
inconsistent to say the least, and yesterday, a senior administration official, under cover
of anonymity, admitted as much."Look, our relations with each country in the world are a
product of our history, our domestic politics. I think if you're arguing for consistency, it's
something that we strive for but don't always reach. And that's obviously the case."
In other words, the U.S. will trade with some oppressive countries, if it suits American
commercial and political needs.But Mr. Obama sees "signs of progress" in Cuban
President Raul Castro's offer to discuss all issues with the United States, including human
rights. The president said the U.S. would explore that offer "and see if we can make
some further steps.""There are gonna be some ways the Cuban government can send
some signals that they're serious about pursuing change," said Mr. Obama.
Cuban-Americans large numbers in swing state Florida makes them a political
influence in the decision about the embargo
Susan Eckstein 2009 [professor at Harvard University] The Personal Is Political: The Cuban Ethnic Electoral Policy
Cycle http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2009.00042.x/pdf

Cuban Americans account for less than 1 percent of the U.S. population. But despite their
small number, they have magnied their political influence by primarily residing in the
largest electoral swing state, Florida; by electing their own to local offices; and by
prioritizing ethnic concerns when voting. The U.S. state-based, winner-take-all electoral
collegesystem contributed to the importance of their vote in presidential elections. By
the turn of the twenty-rst century, Cuban Americans accounted for 8 percent of the
electorate in a state commanding one tenth of the electoral college votes (Pain 2003).
Cuban Americans take both citizenship and voting rights seriously. In 1990 nearly 60
percent of Cuban Americans in Miami, where most Cuban Americans live, were U.S.
citizens (Eckstein 2009, table 3.1). By 2004, two-thirds of them were citizens, with 90
percent of those of voting age registered voters (see table 1). Cuban Americans also
tend to vote in blocs, and the extent of their bloc-voting has an impact on electoral
outcomes. Florida used to be Democratic until the Republicans, during Ronald Reagans
presidency,courted Cuban Americans as part of their strategy to win over the South

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(Black and Black 2002). Indeed, Cuban American party switching from Democratic to
Republican helped the state become contested terrain.

In South Florida, Cuban Americans used their vote to help elect co-ethnic candidates to office,
including at the congressional level

Cuban-Americans want to force Castros into democratic change

Susan Eckstein 2009 [professor at Harvard University] The Personal Is Political: The Cuban Ethnic Electoral Policy
Cycle http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2009.00042.x/pdf

U.S. Cuba policy, including that regarding the personal embargo, needs to be understood also in
the context of Cuban American lobbying and campaign contributions. Cuban Americans formed a
political action committee (PAC), through which they channeled funds to elect Cuban and non
Cuban Americans alike, across the partisan divide and nationwideas well as in Florida, to defend
and advance a hard U.S. line on Cuba. Between the 1980s and 2000, they lobbied and channeled
political contributions mainly through organizations associated with the Cuban American National
Foundation (commonly called the Foundation).Beginning in 2001, however, a new organization
and then a new PAC carried the hardline torch.Formally, the Foundations main goal was to
advance freedom and democracy in Cuba (CANF 2007). Reagan, during his rst presidential
term, helped give the Foundation its initial boost by overseeing the channeling of hundreds of
thousands of federal dollars to a Foundation affiliated organization via the National Endowment
for Democracy(Fonzi 1993, 11; Haney and Vanderbush 2005, 4344). The Foundation, however,
quickly established a revenue base of its own. Jorge Mas Canosa, its influential and charismatic
chief officer, persuaded fellow Cuban Americans who successfully shared in the Americandream
to make large annual contributions to the organization. By the early 1990s, the Foundation
claimed 50,000 members and by the beginning of the twenty-rst century 5,000 more, with 170
directors, trustees, and associates reputedly contributing $1,000 to $10,000 annually (Cuba
Information Archives n.d.; Tamayo 2002). Mas Canosa oversaw the formation of both a formally
autonomous lobbying organization, the Cuban American Foundation (CAF), and a Political Action
Committee, the Free Cuba PAC. Between the time of its founding and 2000, the Free Cuba PAC
accounted for all but 1 percent of Cuban American PAC political donations. It took in nearly $1.7
million and made $1.3 million in campaign contributions.

Cuba Lobby makes it impossible for embargo to be lifted

WILLIAM M. LEOGRANDE 2013 [writer for Foreign Policy] APRIL 11, The Cuba Lobby

Founded at the suggestion of Richard V. Allen, Reagan's rst national security advisor, CANF
became one of the most powerful ethnic foreign-policy organizations in the United States and
was the linchpin of the Cuba Lobby until Mas Canosa's death in 1997. "No individual had more
influence over United States policies toward Cuba over the past two decades than Jorge Mas
Canosa," the New York Times editorialized. In Washington, CANF built its reputation by
spreading campaign contributions to bolster friends and punish enemies. In 1988, CANF money
helped Joe Lieberman defeat incumbent Sen. Lowell Weicker, whom Lieberman accused of being
soft on Castro because he visited Cuba and advocated better relations. Weicker's defeat sent a
chilling message to other members of Congress: challenge the Cuba Lobby at your
peril. In 1992, according to Peter Stone's reporting in National Journal, New Jersey Democrat
Sen. Robert Torricelli, seduced by the Cuba Lobby's political money, reversed his position on
Havana and wrote the Cuban Democracy Act, tightening the embargo. Today, the political action
arm of the Cuba Lobby is the U.S.-Cuba Democracy PAC, which hands out more campaign
dollars than CANF's political action arm did even at its height -- more than $3 million in the
last ve national elections.

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