NCDEX DAILY LEVELS

DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-02-2014

666

664

662

660

658

656

654

652

650

SYBEANIDR

20-02-2014

3545

3525

3505

3485

3470

3450

3430

3410

3380

RMSEED

20-04-2014

3530

3510

3490

3470

3450

3420

3400

3380

3360

JEERAUNJHA

20-02-2014

16800

16700 16600

16500

16400 16300 16200 16100 16000

CHANA

20-02-2014

3490

3470

3450

3430

3410

3380

3360

3340

3320

CASTORSEED

20-02-2014

4690

4670

4650

4620

4600

4580

4560

4540

4520

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-02-2014

671

668

665

662

659

656

653

650

647

SYBEANIDR

20-02-2014

3585

3540

3500

3470

3440

3410

3370

3340

3310

RMSEED

20-04-2014

3575

3540

3510

3480

3440

3410

3380

3350

3310

JEERAUNJHA

20-02-2014

17300

17100 16900

16700

16500 16200 16000 15800 15600

CHANA

20-02-2014

3555

3520

3485

3450

3410

3370

3330

3290

3260

CASTORSEED

20-02-2014

4750

4710

4670

4630

4590

4550

4510

4470

4430

 MCX DAILY LEVELS

DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30-01-2015 118

117

116

115

114

113

112

111

110

COPPER

27-02-2015 367

365

363

360

357

354

351

348

345

CRUDE OIL

16-01-2015 3070

3050

3030

3010

2980

2960

2940

2920

2900

GOLD

05-02-2015 28200

28100

28000

27900

27600

27500

27400

24300

27200

LEAD

30-01-2015 119

118

117

116

115

114

113

112

111

NATURAL GAS 27-01-2015 201

199

197

195

193

191

189

187

185

NICKEL

30-01-2015 925

910

900

890

880

870

860

850

840

SILVER

05-03-2015 39800

39600

39400

39200

39000

38800

38600

38400

38200

ZINC

30-01-2015 134

133

132

131

130

129

128

127

126

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30-01-2015 123

121

118

116

114

112

110

108

106

COPPER

27-02-2015 373

369

365

361

357

353

349

345

341

CRUDE OIL

16-01-2015 3180

3140

3100

3075

3030

3000

2970

2940

2900

GOLD

05-02-2015 28600

28400

28200

28000

27800

27600

27400

27200 27000

LEAD

30-01-2015 125

123

120

117

114

112

110

108

106

NATURAL GAS

27-01-2015 205

202

199

196

193

190

187

184

181

NICKEL

30-01-2015 960

930

900

870

840

810

780

750

720

SILVER

05-03-2015 40400

40200

40000

39800

39600

39400

39200

39000 38800

ZINC

30-01-2015 139

137

135

133

131

129

127

125

123

 MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
The Swiss National Bank shocked financial markets on Thursday by scrapping a three-year-old
cap on the franc, sending the currency soaring against the Euro and stocks plunging on fears for
the export-reliant Swiss economy.
The Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates on Thursday by 25 basis points to 7.75 percent in a
surprise inter-meeting cut, yielding to growing signs of slowing inflation and a flagging
recovery.
U.S. producer prices in December recorded their biggest fall in more than three years on
tumbling energy costs while underlying inflation pressures were tame, a cautionary note for the
Federal Reserve as it ponders its next step on monetary policy.
The Labor Department said on Thursday its producer price index for final demand declined 0.3
percent, the biggest drop since October 2011, after falling 0.2 percent in November.
The collapse in oil prices is starting to slow growth in U.S. output, OPEC said on Thursday,
although the slowdown will not prevent demand for the exporter group's oil falling in 2015 to
its lowest in a decade.
1.
2.
3.
4.

RBI slashed repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.75 percent.

Copper continues its downward trajectory on Wednesday.
US Core Retail Sales plunged by 1 percent in December.
Euro Zones Industrial Production gained 0.2 percent in November

PRECIOUS METAL
Gold rose as much as 3 percent to a four-month high on Thursday after Switzerland's central
bank unexpectedly abandoned its three-year cap on the franc sent global shares and bond yields
into turmoil.
Swiss franc soared nearly 28 percent against the dollar, and the euro slid as much as 30 percent
below the 1.20 cap to a record low of 0.8500 francs per euro.
Gold has benefited from years of increased central banks' liquidity following the 2008 financial
crisis, but more monetary stimulus in the euro zone could result in a stronger dollar and, in turn,
lower gold prices. UBS lowered its gold price forecast for the year to $1,190 from $1,200,
saying it had underestimated the downside risks.
The US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a negative note yesterday declining by 0.2 percent as

retail sales in the U.S. slumped in December by the most in almost a year, pushing back the
time line for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

BASE METAL
Copper rose on Thursday on a mix of bargain-hunting, short-covering and hedging by
consumers, a day after its biggest slide in more than three years, but more losses were expected.
The price tumbled more than 8 percent at one point in Wednesday's session, to a 5-1/2 year low
of $5,353.25 a tonne, after a downward revision to global growth by the World Bank and falls
in oil prices amplified fears about the outlook for the economy and demand. Supporting the
market, investors bet on an increased chance of policy stimulus after disappointing China bank
loan data. But adding to bearish sentiment, Japan's core machinery orders rose less than
expected in November, as renewed global growth concerns appeared to temper corporate
spending plans and cast fresh doubts over how quickly the economy can recover from
recession. In other markets, a shock move by Switzerland to abandon its more than three-yearold cap on the franc sent the currency soaring and Europe's shares and bond yields tumbling.

ENERGY
Oil prices declined on Thursday as an erratic dollar and expectations of weakening demand
dashed hopes that a strong rally Wednesday might have signaled a bottom to the seven-month
price rout. Wednesday's surge was the biggest in 2-1/2 years and continued early Thursday,
with both benchmarks breaking above $50 before giving back gains.
Trading was choppy as U.S. crude briefly surged ahead of Brent early in the day. The move
came on the last day of trading for the Brent contract.
The Swiss National Bank abandoned its cap against the euro, pushing the Swiss currency up
sharply and depressing the euro. But the dollar's movements were erratic over the course of the
day, and expectations of lessening demand across the globe depressed the markets. Jobless
claims in the U.S. are up, while factory activity is down, according to reports from the Labor
Department and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank. Christina Lagarde, managing director of
the International Monetary Fund, said investment and consumption were weak in many
economies, including China, the world's second-biggest consumer.
U.S. natural gas futures lost 2.3 percent in volatile trade on Thursday on forecasts calling for
slightly less cold over the next two weeks despite a bigger-than-expected storage draw. The
latest weather models for the lower 48 U.S. states called for slightly less frigid, but still belownormal temperatures over the next two weeks, especially at the end of the month, with an
expected 492 heating degree days (HDD). The U.S. Energy Information Administration said
utilities pulled 236 billion cubic feet of gas from storage during the cold weather last week,
topping analysts estimates in a Reuters poll for a draw of 224 bcf. That was the biggest weekly

decrease since the polar vortex blanketed much of the nation last February and easily topped
the 131-bcf draw in the previous week and the five-year average draw of 190 bcf. It was well
short of the record 268-bcf decrease of a year earlier

LME INVENTORIES
LME Inventories

Copper

Lead

Zinc

Aluminium

Nickel

Current Stock

198725

215825

661375

4131350

418332

Change

4725

-3350

-9225

12

% Change

2.44%

0.00%

-0.50%

-0.22%

0.00%

NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

RM SEED
The recent rains in some areas in growing states of Rajasthan, Gujarat and UPreportedly
good for the standing crop kept trend weak for RMSeed. Though demand for Mustard Oil
remained strong in domestic markets but the higher levels were not sustainable due to the
recent rains even as overall firmness was noted in Oil complex sector.
Reports of crop damage from parts of Rajasthan from recent rains also kept prices firm.
Demand rose further for Mustard Oil amid falling stocks ahead of the Festival season. Cool
weather in growing states keep production prospects good though reports of damage to crop in
some areas in Rajasthan from the recent rains supported the market sentiments.
As per Ministry of Agriculture, Rajasthan area coverage in Rabi season 2014-15 till 24
December was 26.40 lakh ha vs 29.73 lakh ha in 2013-14. The government has set a target of
29 lakh for this year. The fall in area was due to high temperature in Oct and lack of rains.
Farmer are reportedly shifting to Barley and Wheat. Crops also faced germination problem due
to the high Temperature. Mustard area coverage in All over India is 63.79 lakh Ha during Rabi
2014-15 and 67.00 lakh ha in 2013-14, area coverage during Rabi 2014-15 is lower.
As per latest reports from Oil World, the output of mustard in Europe is expected to decline
near 15% to 205 lakh tons, the lowest level in past 30 years, while it was 240 lakh tons last
year. There is outbreak of insects on the mustard cops in Europe, as per the Oil World re-port,
which may reduce the yield.

JEERA
Firm trend persisted for Jeera as markets traded with high volatility. Export demand started
rising and an overall fall in crop production reports kept supporting the prices.
Cool weather in growing states of Gujarat and Rajasthan amid reports of rains in some areas
(reportedly good for the standing crop productivity) did pressurize prices to some extent.
The recent rains in the growing states of Gujarat and Rajasthan had created possibilities of
improved crop productivity. However with International markets opening after the recent
holidays, export demand has started rising.
As per latest Govt reports, in Gujarat, normal area is approximately 388,000 hectares. Till
5.1.2015, only 2.64 lakh ha have sown as compared to 4.54 lakh ha last year. Sowing area
during current year likely to go down in Gujarat and Rajasthan due to lower price as compared
to Coriander. Area may shift to Coriander and Fenugreek seed. Cumin output is expected to fall
steeply in Gujarat this year. Output was 3.46 lakh tons in the state last year but may fall this
year as acreage is slashed by 42%. However, yield is expected to improve after the rainfall that
the state received recently. Still, there is less probability of the output to cross 2 lakh tons.
The exports have already shot up 40% during the 1st half of the quarter. It is expected to remain
high in coming months too which could create a Bullish sentiment in the long term for the
commodity. Finally a fall in area as reported amidst adverse weather conditions in growing
areas could help keep market sentiments firm in the medium term.

CHANA
NCDEX Chana Feb. futures closed down 0.83 % on third consecutive day mainly due weak
spot demand and expectation of new crop arrivals in less than a months time. Overall
sentiments looks mixed for Chana amid expected lower output and duty free export allowed till
Mar 2015.
As per the Govt data, Chana has been sown over 81.01 lakh hectares which are less 15.4 % on
Jan 9, 2015 as compared to last year. Weather so far has been conducive for the growth of
Chana crop in the growing states. Considering favorable weather conditions in the coming days
and thereby a normal yield, we expect Chana production to hover around 84-86 lakh tonnes in
2014-15

REFI. SOYA
Ref Soy Oil found good support at these levels as International markets rates too traded slight
firm. The uptrend however was limited with bearish WASDE reports for Oil complex. Good

demand persisted in domestic markets. Sources indicate some more recovery possible in the
near term as demand picks up further.
The recent hike in Import Duty on Crude Edible Oil and refined edible oil would have a
medium term Bullish impact on pricesas per sources. Import Duty on Crude Edible Oil hiked
from 2.5% to 7.5% and on Refined Edible Oil hiked to 15% from 10%. Fall in International
markets had so far kept pressure on the market sentiments while domestic markets traded firm.
Rates however continue to find strong psychological Resistance at the 600 level.
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 117.0 million tons, down slightly due
to a small reduction in cottonseed.
Soybean exports are increased 40 million bushels to 1,760 million reflecting the record export
pace in recent weeks and prospects for additional sales and shipments ahead of the South
American harvest.
India imported 11.62 million tonnes of edible oil during Sep-Oct 2013/14 compared to 10.68
million tonnes during the same period previous season, stated the Solvent Extrac-tors'
Association (SEA).

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