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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

January 20, 2015

INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312


IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL
information@publicpolicypolling.com, OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH
OF THE PRESS RELEASE

Toomey looks to face formidable challenge in 2016


Raleigh, N.C. Pennsylvania Republican Sen. Pat Toomey is on track for another tight
race after PPPs first Pennsylvania poll of 2015 finds him with low support and a host of
capable Democratic challengers.
Two months after the sound defeat of fellow Republican Gov. Tom Corbett, the first-term
senators approval rating has dropped to 28%, down three points from PPPs last
Pennsylvania poll in June. Women and independent voters are among the most
significant critics of the former Wall Street banker, tracking at 22% approval each.
Toomey fails to capture majority support from his base constituencyjust 39% of
Republicans and 44% of very conservative voters approve of his job performance to date.
Former two-term Governor Ed Rendell leads the pack of potential Democratic
challengers, besting Toomey 44-41 in a hypothetical matchup. Rendell owns a substantial
17-point advantage with Independents, and leads with both men and women (+1 and +6,
respectively). Should Rendell decide to enter the race, he would start with a decided
name recognition advantage over Toomey, 85-63.
Toomeys 2010 opponent Joe Sestak is the next closest challenger. Toomey eked out a
two-point victory in 2010, and would again defeat Sestak 40-36 if an election were held
today. Sestak has been hailed early on as the favorite for the Democratic nomination, but
the former two-term Congressman only polls 40% name recognition with 19% support.
MSNBC pundit Chris Matthews, who has hinted at a run in the past, also trails Toomey
by four points (42-38). Attorney General Kathleen Kane lags behind Toomey by six
points, but polls one point ahead of the Senator in name recognition.
Early indications are that Pennsylvania will have one of the most hard fought Senate
races in the country next year, said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
Pat Toomey hasnt made a very strong impression on voters one way or another in his
first four years in the Senate, and that leaves him pretty vulnerable if the Democrats are
able to land a strong candidate.
PPP surveyed 1,042 registered voters from January 15th to 18th. The margin of error for the survey
is +/- 3.0%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed
over the internet to reach respondents who dont have landline telephones.
Phone: 888 621-6988
Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com
Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com

Pennsylvania Survey Results


Q1

Do you approve or disapprove of President


Barack Obamas job performance?

Q6

Approve .......................................................... 42%


Disapprove...................................................... 51%

Favorable........................................................ 43%

Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Q2

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Pat


Toomeys job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If youre
not sure, press 3.

Unfavorable .................................................... 42%


Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Q7

Approve .......................................................... 28%


Disapprove...................................................... 35%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion


of Kathleen Kane? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If youre not sure, press
3.

Unfavorable .................................................... 21%


Not sure .......................................................... 60%

Q8

Favorable........................................................ 31%
Unfavorable .................................................... 33%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion


of Chris Matthews? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If youre not sure, press
3.
Favorable........................................................ 19%
Unfavorable .................................................... 24%
Not Sure.......................................................... 57%

Q5

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion


of Michael Nutter? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If youre not sure, press
3.

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion


of Josh Shapiro? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If youre not sure, press
3.
Favorable........................................................ 10%

Not sure .......................................................... 36%

Q4

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion


of Joe Sestak? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If youre not sure, press
3.
Favorable........................................................ 19%

Not sure .......................................................... 37%

Q3

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion


of Ed Rendell? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If youre not sure, press
3.

Unfavorable .................................................... 16%


Not sure .......................................................... 74%

Q9

If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were


Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat
Kathleen Kane, who would you vote for? If Pat
Toomey, press 1. If Kathleen Kane, press 2. If
youre not sure, press 3.
Toomey ........................................................... 44%
Kane ............................................................... 38%
Not Sure.......................................................... 17%

Favorable........................................................ 23%
Unfavorable .................................................... 23%
Not sure .......................................................... 55%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.


Raleigh, NC 27604
Survey of 1,042 Pennsylvania voters
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

January 15-18, 2015

Q10 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were


Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Chris
Matthews, who would you vote for? If Pat
Toomey, press 1. If Chris Matthews, press 2. If
youre not sure, press 3.

Q14 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were


Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Josh
Shapiro, who would you vote for? If Pat
Toomey, press 1. If Josh Shapiro, press 2. If
youre not sure, press 3.

Toomey ........................................................... 42%

Toomey ........................................................... 43%

Matthews ........................................................ 38%

Shapiro ........................................................... 31%

Not sure .......................................................... 20%

Not sure .......................................................... 26%

Q11 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were


Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Michael
Nutter, who would you vote for? If Pat Toomey,
press 1. If Michael Nutter, press 2. If youre not
sure, press 3.
Toomey ........................................................... 42%
Nutter .............................................................. 35%
Not Sure.......................................................... 23%

Q12 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were


Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Ed
Rendell, who would you vote for? If Pat
Toomey, press 1. If Ed Rendell, press 2. If
youre not sure, press 3.
Toomey ........................................................... 41%
Rendell............................................................ 44%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Q13 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were


Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe
Sestak, who would you vote for? If Pat
Toomey, press 1. If Joe Sestak, press 2. If
youre not sure, press 3.
Toomey ........................................................... 40%

Q15 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bob


Caseys job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If youre
not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 41%
Disapprove...................................................... 33%
Not sure .......................................................... 26%

Q16 In the last presidential election, did you vote for


Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 43%
Someone else / Don't remember .................... 8%

Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,


somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 11%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 20%
Moderate......................................................... 31%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 23%
Very conservative ........................................... 15%

Sestak............................................................. 36%
Not sure .......................................................... 23%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.


Raleigh, NC 27604
Survey of 1,042 Pennsylvania voters
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

January 15-18, 2015

Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.


Woman ........................................................... 53%
Man................................................................. 47%

Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,


press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 44%
Republican...................................................... 40%
Independent / Other........................................ 16%

Q20 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,


press 2. If other, press 3.

Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to


45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 11%
30 to 45........................................................... 29%
46 to 65........................................................... 39%
Older than 65 .................................................. 21%

Q22 Mode
Phone ............................................................. 80%
Internet ........................................................... 20%

White .............................................................. 85%


African-American ............................................ 11%
Other............................................................... 5%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.


Raleigh, NC 27604
Survey of 1,042 Pennsylvania voters
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

January 15-18, 2015

2012 Vote

2012 Vote

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
Obama Approval

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
Toomey Approval

Approve 42%

80%

4%

16%

Approve 28%

18%

41%

21%

Disapprove 51%

10%

93%

67%

Disapprove 35%

45%

25%

24%

10%

3%

16%

Not sure 37%

37%

33%

55%

Not sure

8%

2012 Vote

2012 Vote

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
Kane Favorability

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
Matthews Favorability

Favorable 31%

48%

13%

22%

Favorable 19%

28%

11%

7%

Unfavorable 33%

16%

55%

19%

Unfavorable 24%

13%

37%

18%

Not sure 36%

36%

33%

59%

Not Sure 57%

59%

52%

75%

2012 Vote

2012 Vote

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
Nutter Favorability

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
Rendell Favorability

Favorable 23%

35%

12%

8%

Favorable 43%

64%

23%

19%

Unfavorable 23%

17%

29%

22%

Unfavorable 42%

18%

67%

51%

Not sure 55%

48%

59%

70%

Not sure 15%

17%

10%

30%

2012 Vote

2012 Vote

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
Sestak Favorability

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
Shapiro Favorability

Favorable 19%

31%

9%

4%

Favorable 10%

16%

5%

3%

Unfavorable 21%

11%

31%

22%

Unfavorable 16%

11%

22%

16%

Not sure 60%

57%

60%

74%

Not sure 74%

73%

73%

80%

January 15-18, 2015


survey of 1,042 Pennsylvania voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.


Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

2012 Vote

2012 Vote

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
Toomey/Kane

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
Toomey/Matthews

Toomey 44%

16%

77%

34%

Toomey 42%

15%

76%

30%

Kane 38%

67%

11%

17%

Matthews 38%

67%

11%

9%

Not Sure 17%

17%

12%

48%

Not sure 20%

18%

14%

61%

2012 Vote

2012 Vote

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
Toomey/Nutter

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
Toomey/Rendell

Toomey 42%

13%

77%

30%

Toomey 41%

12%

75%

30%

Nutter 35%

62%

9%

9%

Rendell 44%

77%

14%

18%

Not Sure 23%

25%

14%

61%

Not sure 15%

11%

11%

52%

2012 Vote

2012 Vote

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
Toomey/Sestak

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
Toomey/Shapiro

Toomey 40%

11%

76%

Sestak 36%

67%

8%

Not sure 23%

22%

17%

25%

Toomey 43%

16%

7%

Shapiro 31%

56%

9%

5%

68%

Not sure 26%

28%

16%

69%

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
Casey Approval
Approve 41%

62%

23%

19%

Disapprove 33%

15%

53%

27%

Not sure 26%

23%

24%

54%

Very Somewhat
Somewhat
Very
Base liberal
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Obama Approval
Approve 42%

73%

78%

45%

14%

5%

Disapprove 51%

23%

19%

37%

84%

90%

5%

3%

18%

1%

4%

Not sure

survey of 1,042 Pennsylvania voters

26%

Ideology

2012 Vote

January 15-18, 2015

76%

8%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.


Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Ideology

Ideology

Very Somewhat
Somewhat
Very
Base liberal
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Toomey Approval

Very Somewhat
Somewhat
Very
Base liberal
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Kane Favorability

Approve 28%

25%

17%

25%

36%

44%

Favorable 31%

49%

42%

37%

18%

9%

Disapprove 35%

52%

44%

34%

28%

21%

Unfavorable 33%

22%

25%

26%

43%

54%

Not sure 37%

23%

39%

42%

36%

35%

Not sure 36%

29%

34%

37%

40%

37%

Ideology

Ideology

Very Somewhat
Somewhat
Very
Base liberal
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Matthews Favorability

Very Somewhat
Somewhat
Very
Base liberal
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Nutter Favorability

Favorable 19%

38%

26%

17%

12%

9%

Favorable 23%

44%

29%

26%

11%

7%

Unfavorable 24%

23%

12%

17%

33%

39%

Unfavorable 23%

26%

20%

17%

23%

34%

Not Sure 57%

39%

62%

66%

55%

52%

Not sure 55%

30%

50%

57%

66%

59%

Ideology

Ideology

Very Somewhat
Somewhat
Very
Base liberal
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Rendell Favorability

Very Somewhat
Somewhat
Very
Base liberal
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Sestak Favorability

Favorable 43%

70%

60%

48%

24%

17%

Favorable 19%

42%

29%

17%

12%

4%

Unfavorable 42%

13%

26%

33%

64%

69%

Unfavorable 21%

20%

15%

17%

21%

36%

Not sure 15%

17%

14%

19%

12%

13%

Not sure 60%

39%

56%

66%

67%

60%

Ideology

Ideology

Very Somewhat
Somewhat
Very
Base liberal
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Shapiro Favorability

Very Somewhat
Somewhat
Very
Base liberal
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Toomey/Kane

Favorable 10%

30%

16%

7%

5%

4%

Toomey 44%

9%

18%

37%

70%

Unfavorable 16%

19%

9%

17%

16%

20%

Kane 38%

81%

63%

42%

15%

5%

Not sure 74%

51%

74%

77%

79%

76%

Not Sure 17%

11%

19%

21%

15%

16%

Ideology

79%

Ideology

Very Somewhat
Somewhat
Very
Base liberal
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Toomey/Matthews

Very Somewhat
Somewhat
Very
Base liberal
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Toomey/Nutter

Toomey 42%

15%

14%

33%

68%

80%

Toomey 42%

15%

14%

30%

71%

Matthews 38%

72%

69%

40%

13%

6%

Nutter 35%

65%

57%

42%

9%

6%

Not sure 20%

13%

17%

27%

19%

14%

Not Sure 23%

20%

28%

28%

20%

15%

January 15-18, 2015


survey of 1,042 Pennsylvania voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.


Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

79%

Ideology

Ideology

Very Somewhat
Somewhat
Very
Base liberal
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Toomey/Rendell

Very Somewhat
Somewhat
Very
Base liberal
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Toomey/Sestak

Toomey 41%

9%

15%

29%

69%

80%

Toomey 40%

7%

13%

30%

69%

Rendell 44%

79%

70%

53%

18%

7%

Sestak 36%

81%

60%

39%

11%

4%

Not sure 15%

12%

14%

17%

13%

13%

Not sure 23%

12%

27%

31%

20%

17%

Ideology

79%

Ideology

Very Somewhat
Somewhat
Very
Base liberal
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Toomey/Shapiro

Very Somewhat
Somewhat
Very
Base liberal
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Casey Approval

Toomey 43%

10%

16%

33%

71%

79%

Approve 41%

59%

57%

50%

27%

12%

Shapiro 31%

72%

50%

33%

10%

4%

Disapprove 33%

19%

20%

20%

48%

62%

Not sure 26%

19%

33%

34%

19%

18%

Not sure 26%

22%

23%

30%

25%

26%

Gender
Base Woman

Gender
Man

Obama Approval

Base Woman

Man

Toomey Approval

Approve 42%

40%

43%

Approve 28%

22%

35%

Disapprove 51%

51%

51%

Disapprove 35%

31%

38%

9%

6%

Not sure 37%

46%

27%

Not sure

8%

Gender
Base Woman

Gender
Man

Kane Favorability

Base Woman

Man

Matthews Favorability

Favorable 31%

30%

31%

Favorable 19%

19%

19%

Unfavorable 33%

30%

37%

Unfavorable 24%

16%

32%

Not sure 36%

40%

32%

Not Sure 57%

64%

49%

January 15-18, 2015


survey of 1,042 Pennsylvania voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.


Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Gender
Base Woman

Gender
Man

Nutter Favorability

Base Woman

Man

Rendell Favorability

Favorable 23%

18%

28%

Favorable 43%

43%

42%

Unfavorable 23%

20%

25%

Unfavorable 42%

39%

45%

Not sure 55%

62%

47%

Not sure 15%

17%

13%

Gender
Base Woman

Gender
Man

Sestak Favorability

Base Woman

Man

Shapiro Favorability

Favorable 19%

17%

22%

Favorable 10%

10%

10%

Unfavorable 21%

17%

25%

Unfavorable 16%

12%

20%

Not sure 60%

67%

52%

Not sure 74%

77%

70%

Gender
Base Woman

Gender
Man

Toomey/Kane

Base Woman

Man

Toomey/Matthews
Toomey 44%

41%

48%

Toomey 42%

42%

43%

Kane 38%

40%

36%

Matthews 38%

39%

36%

Not Sure 17%

19%

16%

Not sure 20%

19%

21%

Gender
Base Woman

Gender
Man

Toomey/Nutter

Base Woman

Man

Toomey/Rendell

Toomey 42%

40%

44%

Toomey 41%

39%

43%

Nutter 35%

34%

36%

Rendell 44%

45%

44%

Not Sure 23%

26%

21%

Not sure 15%

16%

13%

January 15-18, 2015


survey of 1,042 Pennsylvania voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.


Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Gender
Base Woman

Gender
Man

Base Woman

Toomey/Sestak

Man

Toomey/Shapiro

Toomey 40%

38%

43%

Toomey 43%

41%

44%

Sestak 36%

36%

37%

Shapiro 31%

31%

32%

Not sure 23%

26%

20%

Not sure 26%

28%

24%

Party

Gender
Base Woman

Man

Base Democrat Republican

Casey Approval

Independent
/ Other

Obama Approval

Approve 41%

40%

43%

Disapprove 33%

30%

36%

Not sure 26%

30%

21%

Approve 42%

72%

11%

35%

Disapprove 51%

22%

83%

51%

7%

6%

14%

Not sure

8%

Party

Party

Independent
Base Democrat Republican
/ Other
Toomey Approval

Base Democrat Republican

Independent
/ Other

Kane Favorability

Approve 28%

22%

39%

22%

Favorable 31%

45%

16%

25%

Disapprove 35%

43%

23%

40%

Unfavorable 33%

21%

47%

33%

Not sure 37%

36%

38%

38%

Not sure 36%

34%

36%

42%

Party

Party

Independent
Base Democrat Republican
/ Other
Matthews Favorability

Base Democrat Republican

Independent
/ Other

Nutter Favorability

Favorable 19%

26%

13%

13%

Favorable 23%

35%

10%

18%

Unfavorable 24%

13%

34%

29%

Unfavorable 23%

17%

28%

25%

Not Sure 57%

61%

53%

58%

Not sure 55%

48%

62%

56%

January 15-18, 2015


survey of 1,042 Pennsylvania voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.


Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Party

Party

Independent
Base Democrat Republican
/ Other
Rendell Favorability

Base Democrat Republican

Independent
/ Other

Sestak Favorability

Favorable 43%

62%

22%

39%

Favorable 19%

28%

9%

19%

Unfavorable 42%

24%

64%

37%

Unfavorable 21%

14%

27%

24%

Not sure 15%

14%

14%

23%

Not sure 60%

58%

64%

57%

Party

Party

Base Democrat Republican

Independent
/ Other

Shapiro Favorability

Base Democrat Republican

Independent
/ Other

Toomey/Kane

Favorable 10%

16%

7%

3%

Toomey 44%

20%

76%

34%

Unfavorable 16%

13%

17%

22%

Kane 38%

65%

10%

33%

Not sure 74%

71%

77%

75%

Not Sure 17%

15%

14%

33%

Party

Party

Independent
Base Democrat Republican
/ Other
Toomey/Matthews

Base Democrat Republican

Independent
/ Other

Toomey/Nutter

Toomey 42%

16%

77%

28%

Matthews 38%
Not sure 20%

Toomey 42%

17%

66%

9%

17%

14%

30%

Nutter 35%

41%

Not Sure 23%

Party

75%

28%

61%

8%

28%

22%

17%

44%

Party

Base Democrat Republican

Independent
/ Other

Toomey/Rendell

Base Democrat Republican

Independent
/ Other

Toomey/Sestak

Toomey 41%

17%

74%

27%

Toomey 40%

14%

75%

27%

Rendell 44%

73%

13%

44%

Sestak 36%

64%

7%

31%

Not sure 15%

11%

13%

29%

Not sure 23%

22%

18%

42%

January 15-18, 2015


survey of 1,042 Pennsylvania voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.


Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Party

Party

Independent
Base Democrat Republican
/ Other
Toomey/Shapiro

Base Democrat Republican

Independent
/ Other

Casey Approval

Toomey 43%

18%

74%

32%

Approve 41%

60%

23%

34%

Shapiro 31%
Not sure 26%

57%

5%

26%

Disapprove 33%

17%

51%

32%

25%

21%

42%

Not sure 26%

24%

26%

34%

Race
Base

Race

AfricanWhite American Other

Obama Approval

Base

AfricanWhite American Other

Toomey Approval

Approve 42%

36%

88%

42%

Approve 28%

29%

27%

24%

Disapprove 51%

56%

6%

50%

Disapprove 35%

34%

35%

49%

8%

5%

8%

Not sure 37%

37%

38%

27%

Not sure

8%

Race
Base

Race

AfricanWhite American Other

Kane Favorability

Base

AfricanWhite American Other

Matthews Favorability

Favorable 31%

28%

55%

21%

Favorable 19%

20%

16%

14%

Unfavorable 33%

35%

26%

26%

Unfavorable 24%

24%

18%

26%

Not sure 36%

37%

19%

53%

Not Sure 57%

56%

66%

60%

Race
Base

Race

AfricanWhite American Other

Nutter Favorability

Base

AfricanWhite American Other

Rendell Favorability

Favorable 23%

20%

43%

25%

Favorable 43%

39%

72%

42%

Unfavorable 23%

20%

41%

33%

Unfavorable 42%

46%

12%

39%

Not sure 55%

60%

16%

41%

Not sure 15%

15%

16%

19%

January 15-18, 2015


survey of 1,042 Pennsylvania voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.


Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Race
Base

Race

AfricanWhite American Other

Sestak Favorability

Base

AfricanWhite American Other

Shapiro Favorability

Favorable 19%

18%

29%

19%

Favorable 10%

9%

22%

13%

Unfavorable 21%

21%

14%

27%

Unfavorable 16%

16%

12%

22%

Not sure 60%

61%

56%

53%

Not sure 74%

75%

66%

65%

Race
Base

Race

AfricanWhite American Other

Toomey/Kane

Base

AfricanWhite American Other

Toomey/Matthews
Toomey 44%

48%

17%

30%

Toomey 42%

47%

12%

26%

Kane 38%

35%

71%

34%

Matthews 38%

33%

74%

36%

Not Sure 17%

17%

12%

36%

Not sure 20%

19%

14%

38%

Race
Base

Race

AfricanWhite American Other

Toomey/Nutter

Base

AfricanWhite American Other

Toomey/Rendell

Toomey 42%

47%

5%

32%

Toomey 41%

46%

5%

24%

Nutter 35%

30%

70%

Not Sure 23%

23%

25%

35%

Rendell 44%

39%

84%

47%

32%

Not sure 15%

14%

11%

29%

Race
Base

Race

AfricanWhite American Other

Toomey/Sestak

Base

AfricanWhite American Other

Toomey/Shapiro

Toomey 40%

46%

27%

Toomey 43%

48%

6%

33%

Sestak 36%

31%

78%

39%

Shapiro 31%

28%

61%

28%

Not sure 23%

23%

22%

34%

Not sure 26%

24%

33%

40%

January 15-18, 2015


survey of 1,042 Pennsylvania voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.


Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Race
Base

Age

AfricanWhite American Other

Base

Casey Approval

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Obama Approval

Approve 41%

38%

69%

29%

Approve 42%

40%

46%

42%

36%

Disapprove 33%

34%

16%

46%

Disapprove 51%

42%

45%

52%

60%

Not sure 26%

28%

14%

25%

18%

9%

6%

4%

Not sure

8%

Age
Base

Age

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Toomey Approval

Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Kane Favorability

Approve 28%

19%

25%

30%

36%

Favorable 31%

35%

27%

32%

31%

Disapprove 35%

29%

35%

35%

36%

Unfavorable 33%

12%

38%

33%

37%

Not sure 37%

53%

40%

35%

28%

Not sure 36%

53%

35%

35%

32%

Age
Base

Age

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Matthews Favorability

Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Nutter Favorability

Favorable 19%

23%

17%

18%

22%

Favorable 23%

21%

22%

22%

24%

Unfavorable 24%

12%

22%

23%

32%

Unfavorable 23%

13%

29%

21%

22%

Not Sure 57%

65%

60%

59%

46%

Not sure 55%

66%

49%

56%

54%

Age
Base

Age

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Rendell Favorability

Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Sestak Favorability

Favorable 43%

35%

47%

41%

44%

Favorable 19%

24%

19%

18%

20%

Unfavorable 42%

30%

38%

45%

48%

Unfavorable 21%

12%

26%

19%

21%

Not sure 15%

35%

15%

13%

8%

Not sure 60%

64%

55%

63%

58%

January 15-18, 2015


survey of 1,042 Pennsylvania voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.


Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Age
Base

Age

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Shapiro Favorability

Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Toomey/Kane

Favorable 10%

11%

11%

9%

11%

Toomey 44%

27%

45%

44%

52%

Unfavorable 16%

7%

18%

16%

18%

Kane 38%

48%

40%

37%

34%

Not sure 74%

82%

70%

75%

71%

Not Sure 17%

25%

15%

19%

14%

Age
Base

Age

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Toomey/Matthews

Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Toomey/Nutter

Toomey 42%

33%

37%

43%

53%

Toomey 42%

27%

39%

42%

52%

Matthews 38%

44%

44%

35%

32%

Nutter 35%

36%

40%

33%

29%

Not sure 20%

22%

19%

22%

15%

Not Sure 23%

37%

20%

24%

19%

Age
Base

Age

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Toomey/Rendell

Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Toomey/Sestak

Toomey 41%

31%

32%

44%

52%

Toomey 40%

31%

34%

42%

50%

Rendell 44%

44%

52%

42%

Not sure 15%

26%

16%

13%

38%

Sestak 36%

39%

42%

34%

32%

10%

Not sure 23%

30%

24%

24%

18%

Age
Base

Age

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Toomey/Shapiro

Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Casey Approval

Toomey 43%

36%

36%

44%

53%

Approve 41%

21%

46%

44%

40%

Shapiro 31%

31%

39%

28%

27%

Disapprove 33%

32%

32%

32%

34%

Not sure 26%

32%

26%

28%

20%

Not sure 26%

46%

22%

24%

26%

January 15-18, 2015


survey of 1,042 Pennsylvania voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.


Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Mode

Mode

Base Phone Internet


Obama Approval

Base Phone Internet


Toomey Approval

Approve 42%

41%

42%

Approve 28%

29%

27%

Disapprove 51%

54%

39%

Disapprove 35%

38%

19%

5%

18%

Not sure 37%

33%

53%

Not sure

8%

Mode

Mode

Base Phone Internet


Kane Favorability

Base Phone Internet


Matthews Favorability

Favorable 31%

30%

32%

Favorable 19%

18%

21%

Unfavorable 33%

35%

28%

Unfavorable 24%

25%

16%

Not sure 36%

35%

40%

Not Sure 57%

56%

62%

Mode

Mode

Base Phone Internet


Nutter Favorability

Base Phone Internet


Rendell Favorability

Favorable 23%

21%

28%

Favorable 43%

42%

47%

Unfavorable 23%

24%

17%

Unfavorable 42%

47%

22%

Not sure 55%

55%

55%

Not sure 15%

11%

32%

Mode

Mode

Base Phone Internet


Sestak Favorability

Base Phone Internet


Shapiro Favorability

Favorable 19%

19%

22%

Favorable 10%

8%

19%

Unfavorable 21%

22%

15%

Unfavorable 16%

18%

8%

Not sure 60%

59%

63%

Not sure 74%

74%

73%

January 15-18, 2015


survey of 1,042 Pennsylvania voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.


Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Mode

Mode

Base Phone Internet


Toomey/Kane

Base Phone Internet


Toomey/Matthews

Toomey 44%

46%

38%

Toomey 42%

44%

36%

Kane 38%

39%

36%

Matthews 38%

38%

38%

Not Sure 17%

15%

26%

Not sure 20%

18%

26%

Mode

Mode

Base Phone Internet


Toomey/Nutter

Base Phone Internet


Toomey/Rendell

Toomey 42%

44%

32%

Toomey 41%

45%

25%

Nutter 35%

35%

34%

Rendell 44%

43%

49%

Not Sure 23%

21%

34%

Not sure 15%

12%

26%

Mode

Mode

Base Phone Internet


Toomey/Sestak

Base Phone Internet


Toomey/Shapiro

Toomey 40%

43%

30%

Toomey 43%

45%

31%

Sestak 36%

36%

Not sure 23%

21%

39%

Shapiro 31%

30%

36%

31%

Not sure 26%

24%

33%

Mode
Base Phone Internet
Casey Approval
Approve 41%

40%

47%

Disapprove 33%

36%

20%

Not sure 26%

24%

32%

January 15-18, 2015


survey of 1,042 Pennsylvania voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.


Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988