Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Final Report
Submitted by:
Omar Masood, Bilal Al Mula Abd, Bao Nguyen, Lei Xiao
Rutgers University
Industrial and System Engineering
Table Content
1.
Introduction .........................................................................................................................1
2.
Objectives ...........................................................................................................................2
3.
4.
Methodology .......................................................................................................................4
4.1. Executive summary of methodologies ..............................................................................4
4.2. Failure Rate Based on Key Components Failure Rate .......................................................6
4.2.1 Methodology Approach for Electric Devices...............................................................6
4.2.2. Power Cord and Plug .................................................................................................7
4.2.3. Transformer ............................................................................................................. 10
4.2.4. Switch ..................................................................................................................... 11
4.2.5. Tube clogging by Calcium Carbonate ...................................................................... 13
4.2.6. The Principle Failure Rate ....................................................................................... 14
4.3. Failure Rate Estimation Based on Statistic ...................................................................... 14
4.4. Failure Rate Estimation Based on Simulated Data .......................................................... 17
4.5 Fitting the Data to Produce a Reliability Model ............................................................... 19
5.
6.
7. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 22
Appendix .................................................................................................................................. 23
References: ............................................................................................................................... 26
1. Introduction
Coffee is a very popular beverage all around the world. In fact, coffee is the second most
traded commodity worldwide. When evaluating the benefits of coffee, it becomes obvious why
coffee is so popular. It has been proven that coffee helps you live a longer and healthier lifestyle,
as it contains plenty of anti-oxidants and nutrients needed to survive (B2, B5, K, and Mg).
Coffee helps burn fat and increases metabolism by 3-11%, while improving workout
performance by increasing adrenaline and releasing fatty acids. It prevents Alzheimers and
Dementia by 65% and cirrhosis of the liver by 80%. With all these benefits, it is no surprise that
18.5 million drip coffee machines were purchased in the United States in 2010.
Coffee was first cultivated in Ethiopia in the sixth century A.D. The coffee berries were
consumed whole, or a wine was made out of the fermented fruits. Coffee, made from ground,
roasted beans, dates to the thirteenth century, and by the fifteenth century, coffee was popular all
across the Islamic world. The drink was introduced to Europe around 1615. The ancient method
of preparing coffee was to boil the crushed roasted beans in water until the liquid reached the
desired strength. The typical coffee pot was a long-handled brass pot with a narrow throat. This
kind of pot is still used throughout the Arab world, and is known in the West as a Turkish coffee
pot.
In England and America, boiling coffee in a sauce pan was for a long time the standard
method. Sometimes the coffee was boiled for several hours; other classic recipes called for
additions to the pot such as egg white, salt, and even mustard.
More sophisticated methods of brewing coffee evolved in France. The coffee bag, similar to
the familiar tea bag, appeared in France in 1711. Ground coffee was placed in a cloth bag, the
bag into a pot, and boiling water poured on top. Nearly a hundred years later, Jean Baptiste de
Belloy, who was Archbishop of Paris, invented a three-part drip coffee pot. The top part of the
pot held inside it a filter section made of perforated metal or china. Boiling water was poured
through the filter section, and it slowly dripped down to fill the pot below. The percolator was
invented in 1825. In a percolator, the pot full of water is placed directly on the stove burner.
When the water boils, it condenses in the top of the pot, and then drips through a strainer basket
filled with coffee. The Melitta filter, a plastic cone with several openings in the bottom, that
holds a paper filter of finely ground coffee, appeared around 1910, as did the glass Silex, an
hourglass-shaped filter pot.
The automatic drip coffee maker operates on the same principle as the Melitta and Silex, by
dripping boiled water through finely ground coffee in a paper filter. This machine debuted in the
United States in 1972 as the well-known Mr. Coffee. Mr. Coffee was an immediate success, and
popularized the automatic drip method. As of 1996, some 73% of American households report
owning an automatic drip coffee maker. Some models have timing features, so that they can be
pre-filled at night to make coffee at dawn. Other units have a temporary shut-off function, so the
carafe can be removed from the warmer plate while the coffee is filtering. Others pulse the water
over the filter at intervals, for a slower drip and more concentrated brew.
As an appliance used daily, the coffee maker may fail as its usage is increased, which can be
annoying and frustrating to the user. Many reasons can result in failure, for example the
components can wear heating element, power cord, etc. Or perhaps, the coffee will fail because
of damages caused by the user. While the coffee maker is a high reliable appliance, online
resources that will be discussed later report its average lifetime be approximately 6 years. In this
report, the main objective is to determine the reliability and safety of coffee makers and provide
suggestions on how to use coffee makers safely, and how to extend the lifespan of a coffee
maker.
2. Objectives
The main objective of this study is to determine the reliability and safety of coffee makers
utilizing the FAILURE RATE DATA APPROACH (). As coffee is such a valued commodity
worldwide, helping understand the reliability of coffee makers is quite important. Through the
use of the failure rate data approach, this study will determine the reliability of these machines,
discuss safety related issues, and recommend methods to prolong the life of a coffee machine.
into a carafe. The carafe sits on a metal plate which has another heating element inside it. This
keeps the coffee warm. Simple research indicates that the key coffee machine components that
fail over time are the power cord/switch, heating element, inner tubes, heat sensors and the oneway valve.
4. Methodology
4.1. Executive summary of methodologies
The main objective for this project is to determine the reliability of a coffee maker using the
failure rate data approach. In order to do so, failure rate data must be collected. However, failure
rate data and specifically, the coffee machine failure data is hard to be collected in practice.
Online reviews by customers, along with very generic failure rate data were found online. In
order to overcome the shortcoming of data, four-methods were developed to estimate how
reliable the system is.
1. For the first method, the failure rate of the system is determined according to the failure
rate of each component. As illustrated in the reliability block diagram from section 4, all
of the coffee machine components are connected in series. In other words, the systems
R Ri
(1)
i 1
Where n is the number of key components. Moreover, the failure principle in a series
system is equal the sum of the components failure rates:
n
(2)
i 1
According to the equation (2), the failure rate of the system is the sum of the failure rates
of each component. The following assumptions are considered in this methodology:
Assumption 1: All components function independently.
Assumption 2: The failure rate is subject to an exponential distribution.
Assumption 3: No distinction is made between complete failure and drift failures.
2. The second method is uses statistics of real values to analyze the reliability/failure rate of
the whole system. After collecting data from an online customer survey found online, the
hazard/failure rate is developed. Using this method, the following steps were performed.
Step 1. The time intervals were determined.
Step 2. The number of failures in the time interval were collected.
Step 3. The failure density, failure rate and reliability were calculated.
3. The third method utilized an artificial neural network (ANN) to build the reliability
model. As the ANN method requires a great deal of data, it is generated using online
information showing average coffee machine life. The ANN process used is as follows.
Step 1. The time intervals were determined.
Step 2. The number of failure in each time interval were collected.
Step 3. The network and corresponding parameters was constructed, along with
inputs and outputs.
Step 4: The reliability was simulated using ANN.
4. The fourth method analyzed reliability by fitting the data found in method 2 and 3 using
the toolbox of Matlab. Using this approach, the reliability/failure rate of the whole system
was analyzed. In this method, the reliability of the coffee maker was assumed to be
subject to a certain distribution. Then the data-fitting toolbox of Matlab was used to
estimate the corresponding parameters automatically.
Part _ count (r e f )i
(1)
i 1
Where, ref is the failure rate under reference conditions, and n is the number of
components.
The reference conditions adopted are typical for the majority of applications of components
in equipment. It is assumed that the failure rate used under reference conditions is specific to the
component and includes the effects of complexity, technology of the casing, different
manufacturers and the manufacturing process etc.
2. Failure rate prediction at operating condition (part stress).
Components in equipment may not always operate under the reference conditions. In such
cases, the real operational conditions will result in failure rates different from those given for
reference conditions. Therefore, models for stress factors, by which failure rates under reference
conditions can be converted to values applying for operating conditions (actual ambient
temperature and actual electrical stress on the components), and vice versa, may be required. The
failure rate for equipment under operating conditions is calculated as follows:
n
i 1
j 1
(2)
Where, ref is the failure rate under reference conditions, n is the number of components, m is
the number of factors.
In this project, the failure rate of components was calculated by using the method of part
stress manner using data from MIL-HDBK-217 F[7]. The failure rate estimation process consists
of the following steps:
Step 1. Define the equipment to be analyzed.
Step 2. Understand system by analyzing equipment structure.
Step 3. Determine operational conditions, including operating temperature and rated stress.
Step 4. Determine the actual electrical stresses for each component.
Step 5. Select the reference failure rate for each component from the database [7].
Step 6. In the case of a failure rate prediction at operating conditions calculate the failure
rate under operating conditions for each component using the relevant stress models
Step 7. Sum up the component failure rates.
Step 8. Document the results and the assumptions.
4.2.2. Power Cord and Plug
The connection of electronic equipment to the AC power supply is usually accomplished
using detachable connectors. The alternative of "hard-wiring" equipment to the building wiring
makes service and movement of equipment more costly and less convenient. Therefore, many
types of connectors exist. As a result, much confusion is generated as to what the various
connection types are, when they are used, and what they should look like. But, if not used
properly, power cords lead to electrical shock hazards, equipment damage, and fire hazards.
4.2.2.1. Types of Power Cord
Power Cords come in either two or three-wire types. Two-wire cords should be used to
operate small appliances. Three-wire cords are used for outdoor appliances and electric power
tools. The third wire on the cord is a ground. This type of cord should never be plugged into an
ungrounded electrical outlet.
One
16AWG
13 amps
10 amps
14AWG
18 amps
15 amps
12AWG
25 amps
20 amps
10AWG
30 amps
25 amps
8AWG
40 amps
35 amps
6AWG
55 amps
45 amps
4AWG
70 amps
60 amps
2AWG
95 amps
80 amps
The US standard type "A" plug has two flat prongs, with or without holes, one slightly
larger than the other.
The US standard type "B" plugs has two flat prongs, with or without holes, one slightly
larger than the other and a third grounding pin/prong.
Table 5.2 Applications and Pins Count for Different Wiring Systems.
an ungrounded outlet.
ref
(5)
E is environment factor
ref
(6)
is quality factor,
(7)
10
Where,
ref
is quality factor,
A rocker switch in which off is zero power; it will be labeled with I and
A push-button or momentary contact switch with non-zero power in off; it will be labeled
with
Fig 4.4
11
symbols.
3. Unknown off power. In some contexts, the power consumption while off may not be
known or may change. This occurs in operating systems that may not know the power
status of the hardware they run on and so may not know which symbol to use. This also
can occur with devices that can be operated on battery or mains power; their status while
off may vary depending on whether the device is mains-connected, and also whether the
battery is present
4.2.4.4 Failure Rate of Switch
The failure rate of the switch can be calculated by the following equation:
ref
(8)
cyc
12
The scale-growth rate (in weight per unit time per unit area), as follow:
w ps .
dx ps Aks d T0 Tb
.
dt
q
dt
(9)
Where, ps is density of scale (120mg/l). A is surface area of the heating tube, ks is the
thermal conductivity of scale, q is the heating flow per unit time, d(To - Tb)/dt is the slope of
straight line representing the variation of temperature difference (To - Tb) with time.
Heating flow in the above equation can be calculated by following equation:
q hc AdT
(10)
Where, q is the heat transferred per unit time (W). A is the heat transfer area of the
surface (m2). hc is the convective heat transfer coefficient of the process (W/(m2 K)) or W/ (m2
0
C)). dT is the temperature difference between the surface and the bulk fluid (K or oC).
According to the mechanism of calcium carbonate scale deposition on heat-transfer
surfaces, the nucleation of CaCO3 deposits on metallic surface is not significantly different from
the subsequent growth on CaCO3 crystals. Therefore, the kinetics of this chemical reaction is
considered as a constant rate. Because the chemical reaction rate is unchanged, the failure rate of
tube clogging by a chemical reaction is constant. The failure rate can be estimated by 1/MTTF.
Assuming that a 90% volume of calcium carbonate in the heating tube is the signal of failure and
based on the two aforementioned equations, the estimator for failure rate of tube clogging is
1.3896 10 5 / hr . The calculation is explained further in the appendix by Matlab.
The lifetime data was found by investigating the average lifespan of coffee makes from a
Canadian website [2]. According to the website, poll results for the average lifespan of drip
coffeemakers are given as follows.
From Fig 4.5, the time interval is divided in a large range. More details about the lifespan
over 3 years should be known. Therefore, each customers comment is reviewed. After this
review, data is retrieved indicating specific coffee machine lifetimes between 3 and 20 years.
With this data, the failure rate (f(t)), hazard rate (h(t)), reliability (R(t)) and cumulative
distribution function of failure (F(t)) can be calculated by using the following equations:
n f t
f t
h t
R t
(3)
no t
n f t
(4)
ns t t
f t ns t
h t
no
(5)
F t 1 R t
(6)
Where, nf(t) is the number of failed components. no is the number of identical components
which are subjected to the design operating condition test. ns(t) is the number of surviving
components at the beginning of the period t. The results are tabulated in Table 4.3.
Table 4.3 f(t), h(t), R(t) and F(t) for Coffee Machine Using Canadian Data
Time
interval Failures
in
Hazard
rate Reliability
Unreliability
(years)
interval
f(t)
h(t)
R(t)
F(t)
0-1
0.1579
3/19=0.1579
1-2
0.1053
2/16=0.1250
0.8424
0.1576
2-3
0.1053
2/14=0.1429
0.7369
0.2631
3-4
0.0526
1/12=0.8333
0.0631
0.9369
4-5
0.1053
2/11=0.1667
0.6317
0.3683
15
5-9
0/9=0
9-10
0.3158
6/9=0.6667
0.4737
0.5263
10-11
0/9=0
11-12
0.0526
1/3=0.3333
0.1578
0.8422
12-17
0/9=0
17-18
0.0526
1/2=0.5
0.1052
0.8948
18-19
0/9=0
19-20
0.0526
1/1=1
0.0526
0.9474
Total
19
As can be seen from Table 4.3, there are some intervals with zero failures. For these
specific intervals, the corresponding failure rates, and hazards rate are 0, and the reliability is
meaningless (0/0). Therefore, the data was regrouped using five year intervals and displayed in
Table 4.4.
Table 4.4 Results of f(t), h(t) and R(t) Using Five Year Intervals
Upper bound
Number failing
Number surviving
Reliability
(years)
Failure
Hazard rate
density
19
1.0000
0.1053
0.1053
10
0.4737
0.0632
0.1333
10
0.1578
0.0105
0.0667
15
0.1053
0.0211
0.2000
20
total
19
The reliability R(t), failure density f(t), hazard rate h(t), MTTF and the sample variance is
estimated as follows.
R t
f t
ni
n
i 1, 2,
R ti 1 R ti
ti 1 ti
f t
R t
for ti
,k
for ti
t
(7)
ti 1
ti 1
(8)
(9)
16
k 1
ni ni 1
i 0
MTTF ti
ti
ti ti 1
2
t0 0
n0 n
(10)
Where n is the number of units at risk at the start of the test and ni is the number of units
having, survived at ordered time ti respectively.
Finally, the MTTF is calculated to be 6.1842. Also, another resource was found online that
displays the lifetime of coffee machines [5]. Typical lifetime of coffee machines in the United
States, by product type and in years is illustrated in Fig 4.6.
Fig 4.6. Typical Lifetime of Coffee Machines in the United States, by Product Type (in years)
When comparing the MTTF of the coffee maker calculated from Canadian website data with this
data is very clear that the values are close. This is a strong indication that the estimate is accurate
4.4. Failure Rate Estimation Based on Simulated Data
Due to the small amount of failure samples utilized simulation data was simulated to develop
another failure rate and reliability model. According to the statistics from the US website and the
Canadian website, the mean lifetime of a coffee maker is approximately 6 years. In addition, the
known maximum lifetime is 20 years. Therefore, it is assumed that a chi-square distribution is
more appropriate to simulate the lifetime of a coffee maker. As such, one hundred samples of
data were simulated to build the lifetime samples. The simulated mean lifetime was 6.1473
years, the maximum lifespan was 23.4526 years, and the minimum lifespan was 0.8955 years.
The lifespan distribution is as follows.
17
Frequency
14
12
10
0
0
10
15
20
25
Time (Years)
Fig 4.7 Histogram of Coffee Machine Lifespan Using Simulated Data
Next, the lifespan was divided into 0.5 time intervals (year), and the frequency, reliability,
and corresponding unreliability was calculated.
1
Failure F(t)
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Time (Years)
Fig 4.8 Unreliability of Coffee Machine Using Simulated Data
The failure rate model for a coffee maker is built using an artificial neural network (ANN)
based on [3]. The basic settings and parameters of ANNs are given as follows: there is one input
layer and one output layer, the input of the network is the operating time of the coffee maker, and
the output is the corresponding reliability. There is one neuron in both the input and output
18
layers. There is one hidden layer, which has ten neurons. Tansig is the activiation function of
the neurons in the hidden layer, purelin is of the output layer. The weight adjustment is based
on the Levenberg-Marquardt method because of its fast convergency. The maximum iteration is
10000, and the error performance goal is 1e-10. The error evaluation is calculated based on
Equation (14). The comparison of the simulated reliability and real reliability is given as follows.
error pr rr
(11)
1
real reliability
predicted reliability
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Time (Years)
Fig 4.9 Comparison of Coffee Machine Reliability Between Predicted Reliability Based on ANN and
Real Reliability
and fitted error is 0.45. Similarly, the estimated results using a Weibull distribution are as
1.933
follows: R t e
7.252
Reliability R(t)
The performances of the fitted models are illustrated in Figure 4.10 below.
Time (Years)
Fig 4.10 Fitting by using exponential distribution and Weibull distribution
21
appliances that have been left plugged to the electrical outlet over extended periods even when
not in use.
6.6. Using the Filtered or Mineral Water Instead of Tap Water
In order to avoid the Limescale process, water should be filtered before feeding into the
reservoir of the machine. Using distilled or mineralized water as opposed to tap water will
prevent clogging of the heating tubes.
6.7. Consider Use Time Operation and Time Clock Device
From start to finish, most coffee machines take approximately 5-15 minutes to produce a cup
of coffee. However, most machines operate much longer than this as they are left unattended
until the user decides to drink the coffee. Using a timed device automatically shuts off the
machine after a predetermined time, thus prolonging coffee machine life.
6.8. Power Cord and Plug Recommendation
Manufacturers should use type B US standard plug with a grounding pin when producing
coffee machine. This will certainly minimize, if not, alleviate safety issues caused by type A
plugs. Moreover, the power should be plugged directly into the outlet which can provide stable
current/voltage. These two things can extend your life-time of the coffee maker.
7. Conclusion
As the coffee machine is one of the most utilized appliances in a household, knowing the life
time and methods to increase the age, would be quite useful, Through the use of four varying
methodologies, the lifetime of a coffee machines has been shown to range from 6-7.52 years. As
the difference in time between all four methods is not significant, it is believed that this range is
highly accurate. Furthermore, steps have been outlined that will almost certainly prolong, coffee
machine life much longer than this aforementioned range.
22
Appendix
Appendix A - MATLAB Code for Tube Clogging
%%Fixed variable
%%Density of scale (density of calcium ion in hradwater) Kg/cm^3
Ps =0.12;
%%Area of inner aluminum tube surface
A = 0.007335;
%%thermal conductivity of scale
Ks = 1.45;
%%heating flow equation
q =2000*0.007335*(373-294);
%% Slope of straight line representing the variation of temp differ
Tmax = 100;
Tmin = 21;
T1= 0.5/60;
To = 0;
dT =(Tmax -Tmin)/(T1-To);
%% The scale-groeth rate (weight per unit time per unit area) (kg/hr.m^2)
w=(Ps*A*Ks*dT)/q
%% kg/hr.m^2 convert to g/hr.cm^2
w1 = w*1*10^3/1*10^-4
%% Assume coffee machine operate 10 mins/day and Area (73.35cm^3)
w2 = w1*(1/6)*73.35
%% Volume of calciuum carbonate / day 1gram = 0.369 cm^3
V= w2*0.369
%% Total voume inside of the heating tube 18.305 cm^3
%% How many date untill the tube get 90% occupied
day = 16.4745/V
year = day/365
Failure_rate = 1/(day*24)
23
24
25
References:
1.
http://appliancerepairalamoheightstx.com/appliance-repair-blog/top-5-ways-to-extend-your-coffee-makersservice-life.
2.
http://www.ehmac.ca/everything-else-eh/86642-average-lifespan-your-coffeemaker-3.html.:
3.
http://www.filterwaterdirect.com/information/how-to-treat-hard-water.
4.
http://www.joe.org/joe/2011august/rb6.php.
5.
http://www.statista.com/statistics/220433/life-expectancy-of-coffee-machines/.:
6.
http://www.water-guide.org.uk/limescale.html.
7.
MIL-HDBK-217 F.
8.
Al Nasser WN, Shaikh A, Morriss C, Hounslow MJ, Salman AD. Determining kinetics of calcium
carbonate precipitation by inline technique. Chemical Engineering Science 2008; 63(5): 1381-1389.
9.
Al-Garni AZ, Jamal A. Artificial neural network application of modeling failure rate for Boeing 737 tires.
Quality and Reliability Engineering International 2011; 27(2): 209-219.
10.
Rajurkar SS, Kulkarni AR (2010) Analysis of Power Transformer failure in Transmission utilities. National
http://appliancerepairalamoheightstx.com/appliance-repair-blog/top-5-ways-to-extend-your-coffee-makers-
service-life
26