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Executive Summary
Greeces remarkable adjustment in the last three and a
Greece
In
Diagram1.GDPgrowth
1.3%1.5%
2013: -3.7%
2014: +1.1%
0.9%
0%
0.5%
2%
2.9%
4%
6%
8%
10%
GDP
AlphaBankforecasts
The
2013
2012
available period
-9.3
-17.4
13.2
-9.1
18.6
-1.6
4.9
-26.5
-21.4
-0.4
-11.1
-142.9
9.5
-11.2
82.0
72.1
-45.7
45.3
-15.9
-18.2
-20.2
-24.1
-7.4
-10.6
-19.4
-20.2
-3.2
1.2
-10.3
-6.9
-37.2
37.1
4.8
30.3
-6.3
-8.7
-23.7
-14.3
-11.3
-15.0
-26.1
12.5
-5.1
82.0
75.8
-63.4
43.8
9.3
11.6
-10.7
-1.9
-0.7
-7.6
5.2
-6.2
-4.9
4.7
-9.2
-8.7
-29.8
-16.8
-2.8
-18.3
-7.7
-5.2
-37.7
-37.8
-21.8
-20.7
-101.7
17.7
-8.5
80.6
76.9
-74.1
43.6
10.4
37.0
-12.4
-6.9
8.7
9.5
0.3
-7.3
-7.1
3.3
-8.6
-11.8
-22.9
-8.4
-4.1
-4.1
-9.1
-4.2
-30.6
-12.8
-7.5
-17.7
-237.6
24.4
-3.9
80.0
77.2
-74.8
41.4
5.1
-6.0
-3.3
-4.6
-2.4
-13.7
-6.4
0.1
-1.7
-11.1
-2.4
1.9
-9.5
-7.2
-6.3
-6.1
-37.8
2.9
-2.7
-11.0
-898
27.9
-0.2
90.1
88.6
-70.7
47.5
-2.6
6.2
-6.0
-4.9
10.2
15.5
0.9
-11.8
-3.8
-0.4
0.6
Jan-Jul
Jan-Sep
Jul
Jan-Aug
Jan-Aug
Q2
Q2
Jan-Jun
Jan-Jul
Jan-Aug
Q2
Q2
Jun
Jan-Jul
Jan-Sep
Jan-Sep
Jan-Sep
Sep
Jan-Jul
Jan-Jul
Jan-Jul
Jan-Jul
Jan-Sep
Jan-Jul
Q2
Q2
Q2
Aug
Jan-Jul
Table2.TheGGDebtburdenforGreece
AverageMaturity20132047(years)
GGDebtmaturingin2014(bn)
GGDebtmaturingin2015(bn)
305,0
17,2
24,1
16,1
GGDebtmaturingin20162024(bn)
AverageyearlyGGDebtmaturingin20162024(bn)
GGDebtmaturingafter2025(bn)
AverageyearlyGGDebtmaturingin20252047(bn)
GGDebtmaturingafter2030(bn)
Averageannualamortizationpayments(bn)
Averageannualinterestpayments(bn)
Averageyearlypaymentsforservisingthedebt(bn)
AveragenominalGDP20132047(bn)
61,9
6,9
202,9
8,78
165,4
8,7
9,0
17,7
317,0
Averageannualservisingcost/GDP(%)
5,6%
2014
24,9
8,7
33,6
19,3
14,3
2015
16,1
9,8
25,9
11,0
14,9
7,8%
7,8%
0,5
2,8
4,0
2,5
3,5
1,0
14,3
0,0
4,4
5,7
2,5
2,0
1,5
0,0
3,2
14,9
0,0
6,5
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
105,8
94,9
28,0
-4,8%
-9,8%
113,1
101,1
93,3
87,9
80,5
88,6
90,2
88,4
85,5
81,8
31,0
27,8
25,9
23,9
22,0
-10,6%
-4,9%
-2,4%
-1,3%
0,7%
-15,8%
-10,8%
-9,6%
-6,3%
-3,4%
Source: IMF Country Report No. 13/241, July 2013, Greece. 2013:
Estimates EAD Alpha Bank.
Even more impressive is the fact that , as Martin Wolf points out
using IMF data (FT, May 7, 2013), between 2009 and 2012 the
structural fiscal deficit shifted by 15.4 per cent of potential GDP in
Greece, 5.1 per cent in Portugal, 4.4 per cent in Ireland, 3.8 per cent
in Spain and 2.8 per cent in Italy. Despite of that, Moodys (18 April
2013) indicates that in order to upgrade Greek GGBs from the
current C-rating-with no outlook, fiscal consolidation . would need
to proceed much faster than is currently expected.
JanOct.
2011
NetCurrentRevenues
Taxrebates
CurrentPrimaryExpentiture
OtherCurrentExpentiture
InterestPayments
CurrentPrimaryBalance
CenGov.PrimaryBalance
5.859,0
768,0
1.090,0
TotalCenGovern.Balance
Source:MinistryofFinance
21.085,0 11.887,0
4.458,0
3.770,0
3.601,0
5.136,0
42,6%
5.136,0
42,6%
6.608,0
6.114,0
6.650,0
8,8%
6.650,0
8,8%
CGBalanceswithoutrevenuesfromEuropeanNCBsundertheANFA&SMP
CGPrimaryBalance
TotalCGBalance
26,2% 1.760,0
7.860,0
CGBalanceswithrevenuesfromEuropeanNCBsundertheANFA&SMP
CGPrimaryBalance
TotalCGBalance
6.534,0 3.616,0
15,0
22.882,0 15.840,0 6.085,0
CGNat.AccountAdjustments
2.611,0 6.714,0
922,0
5.178,0
6.714,0
PrimarySurplusofotherGG
1.634,0
1.425,0
8.839,0
8.839,0
GeneralGBalanceswithrevenuesfromEuropeanNCBsundertheANFA&SMP
Gen.Gov.Surplus
GenGov.InterestPayments
GGPrimarySurplus
RevenuesfromANFA&SMP
Gen.Gov.PrimaryBalance
NominalGDP
GGPrimarySurplus%ofGDP
3.053,0
7.878,0
4.825,0
3.106,0
1.719,0
208.531
193.749
182.911
183.100
2,3%
1,5%
0,4%
0,9%
Source:PeportoftheBudget2014,IMFJuly2013andEADAlphaBankEstimates
Table7a.EstimatedImplementationoftheB2013
Budget
%
Budget
%
Budget
Budget
2013as
2014
B2014
2011
2012
inB2014 B2013
CentralGovernment(CG)CurrentBudget
NetCurrentRevenues
50.091,0
48.021,0 45.424,0
5,4%
47.052
3,6%
Taxrebates
5.283,0
3.172,0 2.901,0
8,5%
2.789
3,9%
CurrentPrimaryExpentiture
51.548,0
47.529,0 44.831,0
5,7%
41.946
6,4%
OtherCurrentExpentiture
2.239,0
1.747,0 1.746,0
0,1%
1.352 22,6%
InterestPayments
16.348,0
12.224,0 6.100,0 50,1%
6.150
0,8%
CurrentPrimaryBalance
3.696,0
1.255,0 1.153,0
8,1% 3.754,0 425,6%
CGPublicInvestmentBudget
3.770,0
3.601,0 5.136,0
42,6%
5.002
2,6%
6.608,0
6.114,0 6.650,0
8,8%
6.800
2,3%
CGBalanceswithoutrevenuesfromEuropeanNCBsundertheANFA&SMP
CG Primary Balance
-6.534,0
-3.768,0 -2.667,0 -29,2% 1.956,0
Total CG Balance
-22.882,0
-15.992,0 -8.767,0
-4.194,0
CG Balances with revenues from European NCBs under the ANFA & SMP
303
2.682
2.641
Revenues from ANFA & SMP
CG Primary Balance
-6.534,0
-3.465,0
15,0
4.597,0
Total CG Balance
-22.882,0
-15.689,0 -6.085,0
-1.553,0
General Government
CG Nat. Account Adjustments
Primary Surplus of other GG
1.634,0
2.460,0 -6.714,0
1.425,0 8.839,0
-5.119
2.407
General Gov. Balances with revenues from European NCBs under the ANFA & SMP
-21.248,0
GenGov.InterestPayments
GGPrimarySurplus
-11.804,0 -3.960,0
9.643,0
2.161,0
7.878,0
3.918,0
-4.265,0
9.665,0
5.400,0
General Gov. Balances without revenues from European NCBs under the ANFA & SMP
653,0 3.106,0
12.457,0 7.878,0
TotalrevenuesfromANFA&SMP
Gen.BovernmentBalance
Gen.Gov.PrimaryBalance
NominalGDP
GGPrimarySurplus%ofGDP
4.900,0
2.814,0
812,0
2.443
-6.708
2.957,0
208.531
193.749
182.911
183.200
2,3%
1,5%
0,4%
1,6%
Source:PeportoftheBudget2014,IMFJuly2013andEADAlphaBankEstimates
2013
78,8
79,0
0,2
183,5
5,3%
2,4
%ofGDP
GGRevenues
42,4%
44,1%
GGPrimaryExpenditure
44,7%
45,4%
GGPrimaryBalance
2,3%
1,2%
Source:IMFCountryReport:Greece(July2013).
0,2
42,9%
43,1%
0,1%
GGRevenues
GGPrimaryExpenditure
GGPrimaryBalance
NominalGDP
%GDP
Additioalfscalmeasures(cum)
NewGGPrimarybalance
2011
88,4
93,3
4,9
208,5
6,1%
2014
80,2
77,4
2,8
184,0
0,3%
2,8
2015
80,6
78,3
2,3
190,2
3,4%
3,4
5,7
2016
83,8
78,9
4,9
199,5
4,9%
4,1
9,0
43,6%
42,1%
1,5%
42,4%
41,2%
3,0%
42,0% 42,0%
39,5% 39,6%
4,5% 4,5%
4,9
2017
87,9
82,7
5,2
209,1
4,8%
4,3
9,5
208,5
88,4
42,4%
93,3
44,7%
4,9
193,7
85,5
44,1%
87,9
45,4%
2,4
183,5
81,7
44,5%
80,2
43,7%
1,5
185,2
82,4
44,5%
78,7
42,5%
3,7
192,6
85,7
44,5%
79,7
41,4%
6,0
202,0 212,1
89,9
94,2
44,5% 44,4%
80,8
84,4
40,0% 39,8%
9,1
9,8
2,3%
1,2%
0,8%
2,0%
3,1%
4,5%
4,6%
4,50%
4,00%
3,10%
3,00%
2,00%
2,00%
0,80%
1,00%
0,00%
1,00%
1,00%
2,00%
PrimarySurplus(+)MTFS20132016
PrimarySurplus(+)Proj.AlphaBank
2,40%
2011
2012
1,50%
0,00%
1,50%
3,00%
3,00%
2013
2014
2015
2016
Diagram3.GreekSovereignDebtDynamics
2
Troika'sJanuary2013 Debtdynamics
1,60
1,8
EADAlphaBankOctober2013 Debtdynamics
1,6
1,40
1,4
1,2
Germany
Greece
Spain
Ireland
Italy
Portugal
1,50
1,30
1,20
0,8
1,10
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
0,6
0,90
Oct14
Apr14
Oct13
Apr13
Oct12
Apr12
Oct11
Apr11
Oct10
Apr10
Oct09
Apr09
Oct08
Apr08
Oct07
Apr07
Oct06
Apr06
Oct05
Apr05
Oct04
Apr04
Oct03
Apr03
Oct02
Apr02
Oct01
Apr01
Jun05
1,00
Diagram5.Eurostat'sindexofLabourCostperhour(%)
130
Diagram7.CurrentAccountBalanceas%ofGDP
Italy
(BankofGreecedata,2013forcastEADAlphaBank)
120
2,0%
1,0%
0,0%
110
Spain
100
2,0%
Portugal
2,2%
4,0%
90
6,0%
8,0%
80
Greece
5,6%5,5% 5,7%
6,1%
4,5%
6,5%
10,0%
2013
2012
2011
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
2010
0,0%
2009
2,0%
13,2%
2008
4,0%
2007
6,0%
2006
8,0%
2005
10,0%
12,6%
11,0%11,0%
10,5%
10,5%
10,7%
10,6%
9,9%
8,7% 8,2% 8,6%
8,7%
2004
12,0%
2003
14,0%
2002
15,9%
14,3%
16,0%
12,7%
14,0%
2001
Diagram6.ExportsofGoodsas%ofGDP
18,0%
12,0%
2000
2013Q1
2012Q4
2012Q3
2012Q2
2012Q1
2011Q4
2011Q3
2011Q2
2011Q1
2010Q4
2010Q3
2010Q2
2010Q1
2009Q4
2009Q3
2009Q2
2009Q1
2008Q4
2008Q3
2008Q2
2008Q1
On
the
other
hand,
the
improvement
of
competitiveness in Greece has already contributed
substantially to the impressive increase of exports of
goods by 16.1% in 2010 and by 12.6% in 2011 and by
5.6% in 2012. In fact exports of goods (on national
accounts basis) amounted to 27.76 bn (14.3% of
GDP) in 2012, compared to 20.1 bn (8.7% of GDP) in
2009 (See Diagram 6). Also, the sharp fall in imports of
goods and services is now partly attributable to a gradual
process of import substitution.
9,2% 8,6%
10,3%
9,9%
70
Greece
Eurozone
European Union
4,5
3,5
2,5
1,5
0,5
-0,5
-1,5
-2,5
Sep13
Jul13
May13
Mar13
Jan13
Nov12
Sep12
Jul12
May12
Mar12
Jan12
Nov11
Sep11
Jul11
May11
Mar11
Jan11
Nov10
Sep10
Jul10
May10
Mar10
Jan10
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
850
Share
Hellenic Tel. Organ. (HTO)
Public Power Org.(PPC)
Hel. Football prognostic (OPAP)
Water Supply Comp. (EYDAP)
Thes. Port Athority (OLTH)
Thes.Water Supply (EYAPS)
Pireaus Port Athority (PPA)
Hellenic Petroleum (ELPE)
ASE
FTSE-20
Share Price
(EUR) 3/10/2013
Share Price
(EUR)
30/9/2012
% Change
7,70
8,49
8,85
8,51
24,21
6,21
18,60
8,05
1033,25
346,90
2,91
3,64
4,00
4,06
14,20
3,95
11,99
6,50
739,1
267,9
164,6%
133,2%
121,3%
109,6%
70,5%
57,2%
55,1%
23,8%
39,8%
29,5%
Source: Bloomberg
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
Diagram10.NewhiringsintheGreeklabourmarket
170.000
150.000
2011
2012
130.000
110.000
2013
90.000
70.000
50.000
30.000
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
July
June
May
April
March
Febr
Jan
Thus, the number of new hirings in the 10months Jan.Oct.2013 reached 941.3 thousand, compared with 731.8
thousand in the corresponding period of 2012 (see
Diagrams 10). Most of these hirings use flexible labour
contracts and offers low wages and salaries. Hiring and
firing has become substantially easier and less costly in
Greece contributing to the fundamental improvement of
the functioning of the reformed Greek labour market in
resent months. Also, in Jan.-October 2013 an increase of
employment in the private sector of 130.7 thousand was
registered, compared with a negative net change in
employment in the same period of the previous years
(Diagram 11).
Sixth, there is the drastic reform of the social security
system and the reform of the health sector. The social
security reform effort had been initially mainly directed
GREECE AND SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL OUTLOOK PAGE 14
Diagram11.Netincreaseinemploymentintheprivat
sectorinJanuary October(Hiringslayoffs voluntary
retirements)
130.702
140.000
120.000
100.000
80.000
60.000
40.000
20.000
0
20.000
40.000
20.833
10.165
16.472
44.282
60.000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Diagram12.ChangeinoverallresponsivenesstoGoingforGrowth
recomendationsacrossOECDcountriesfrom20082009 to20102011
Greece
Spain
Ireland
Portugal
UnitedKingdom
Poland
Finland
CzechRep
UnitedStates
Sweeden
Mexico
NewZealand
Hungary
Norway
Italy
Austria
SlovakRep.
Turkey
0,68
0,59
0,47
0,41
0,40
0,40
0,33
0,30
0,30
0,30
0,29
0,27
Table10.AdjustmentprogressofEuropeanUnioncountriesinreducing
fiscalandexternaldeficits,inimprovinginternationalcompetitivenessand
instructuralreforms
0,20
0,20
0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
0,200
0,814
0,749
0,734
0,587
0,446
0,297
0,282
0,246
0,207
0,207
0,187
0,167
0,128
0,124
0,100
0,084
0,069
0,052
0,045
0,028
0,011
0,001
0,000
0,000
0,200
0,400
External
Adjustment
Progressin
structural
reforms
8,7
7,4
6,6
10,0
4,6
4,5
6,2
2,9
4,4
8,3
7,2
2,6
4,2
3,7
4,6
3,5
4,4
2,6
0,3
4,0
3,9
2,0
1,1
8,5
5,8
5,2
8,2
5,8
2,4
2,9
3,7
3,0
3,0
2,6
2,4
1,9
2,8
3,5
1,9
1,0
1,8
1,8
8,5
7,4
6,6
7,9
6,5
4,5
4,1
7,1
3,9
5,8
4,2
5,5
3,1
4,4
1,9
2,9
3,7
3,4
2,8
8,9
8,5
7,8
4,3
5,0
6,4
4,2
1,9
0,9
4,3
1,0
0,8
1,0
1,4
Fiscal
adjustment
Greece
8,2
Ireland
Spain
Portugal
Esthonia
Slovakia
Poland
Italy
Malta
United Kingdom
Slovenia
EU-17
Cyprus
France
Netherlands
Finland
Sweeden
Germany
Belgium
7,6
6,5
6,4
6,4
5,5
4,9
4,8
4,5
4,4
4,2
3,9
3,8
2,8
2,7
2,5
2,5
2,3
2,0
1,8
0,03
0,00
ULC
adjustment
Overall
adjustment
score
0,20
:BerenbergBank,TheLisbonCouncil,TheEuroPlusMonitorSpring2013Update
0,600
0,800
1,000
Resolving
Insolvency:
Recovery
rate(cents
onthe$)
89,4
81,5
48,9
82,3
88,6
48,3
87,5
42,2
82,9
92,8
71,6
48,3
72,3
67,3
38,3
54,8
32,6
62,7
22,3
34,0
30,0
36,0
19,5
139,4
39,6
Alphabank
PiraeusBank
NationalBank
Eurobank
PrivateSector
Numberof SharePrice
Total
%
Shares in4.10.2013 4.10.2013 illion
10.922,9
0,59 6.444,51
1.050,5
16,3%
5.072,6
1,33 6.746,56
1.464,0
21,7%
2.396,8
3,28 7.861,50
1.210,7
15,4%
4.050,4
0,52 2.085,96
29,2
1,4%
Capital
HFSF
Injection
bythe
Capital
Capitali
Deposit
injection
zation
Market
private
byHFSF (4.10.2013) Share
Sector
Alphabank
4.021,0
5.394,1
22%
550,0
PiraeusBank
6.415,0
5.282,6
30%
1.444,0
NationalBank
8.677,0
6.650,8
25%
1.079,0
Eurobank
5.839,0
2.056,8
19%
0,0
Total
24.952,0
19.384,2
96,0%
3.073,0
Sourse:Bloomberg,IMF(July2013)
Diagram14.10yearnewGGBsPrices
32,50
30,00
27,50
25,00
22,50
20,00
17,50
15,00
12,50
10,00
7,50
5,00
07/05/13
23/04/13
09/04/13
26/03/13
12/03/13
26/02/13
12/02/13
29/01/13
15/01/13
01/01/13
18/12/12
04/12/12
20/11/12
06/11/12
23/10/12
09/10/12
25/09/12
11/09/12
28/08/12
14/08/12
31/07/12
17/07/12
03/07/12
19/06/12
05/06/12
22/05/12
08/05/12
The above recapitalizations and restructurings of noncore banks have absorbed much less capital than
anticipated, as the assessed by Black Rock and the Bank
of Greece capital gap was lower than anticipated and the
capital injections by the private sector were also higher
than expected. Moreover, most of the core banks have
additional capital buffers, which will secure their
endowment with adequate capital, even under a
significantly adverse scenario concerning developments
in the Greek economy in the following 2-5 years. These
capital buffers will thus ensure the safety and soundness
of the banking system and of its deposits in the years to
come. Moreover, the HFSF is still endowed with surplus
funds (not used in the 2013 recapitalization and
restructurings), which may also be used in the future in
case of need. All these buffers, in combination with the
concrete prospects that exist today for an early recovery
of the economy and a fast containment of unemployment,
imply that the Greek banking system will be ready in time
to attract back the deposits and contribute to the proper
financing of the economy in the following years. In the
following two Boxes in this Report we analyze in more
detail developments in the fields of bank deposits and
Net deposits
5.562
3.310
3.085
1.446
740
1.328
369
975
-118
-1.054
-2.324
-2.044
-2.482
-3.228
-3.357
-4.466
-5.080
-2.393
-4.483
-2.604-2.429
-3.754
-4.083 -3.732
-4.822
-5.457
Net withdrawals
-500
-963
-1.385
3.049
932
596
916
1.078
644
128
-483
-178
-288
-739
-1.810
-3.522
-6.785
-4.576
-5.269
-6.851
-8.514
10/09 12/09 02/10 04/10 06/10 08/10 10/10 12/10 02/11 04/11 06/11 08/11 10/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 06/12 08/12 10/12 12/12 02/13 04/13 06/13 08/13
Source: Bank of Greece
60,0
30,0
0,0
-30,0
2001
2003
2005
2007
Sight deposits
2009
Savings deposits
2011
2013
Time deposits
6/2012
10/2008
5,00
4,00
3,00
2,00
1,00
9/2010
0,00
2006
2007
Savings deposits
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Italy
NPL Rate
NPL Rate
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-5%
Spain
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
Growth rate
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-6%
-4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Growth rate
Portugal
Greece
14%
35%
NPL Rate
NPL Rate
-2%
Source:Bancad'Italia, IMF.
Source:BancodeEspana, IMF.
12%
30%
10%
25%
8%
20%
6%
15%
4%
10%
2%
5%
0%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
0%
-8%
-5%
-2%
1%
4%
Growth rate
7%
Growth rate
Source:BankOfGreece,IMF.
42.4
Business
29.2
24.0
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012
Q4 2011
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011
Q4 2010
Q3 2010
Q2 2010
Q1 2010
Morgages
Q4 2009
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
1600
1400
105
1200
100
10%
EconomicSentiment
Index,lhs
GDP(%yoygrowth),rhs
2%
85
4%
80
:Bloomberg
400
06/05/2013
06/04/2013
06/03/2013
06/02/2013
06/01/2013
06/12/2012
06/11/2012
06/10/2012
06/09/2012
06/08/2012
06/07/2012
06/06/2012
06/05/2012
06/04/2012
06/03/2012
06/02/2012
06/01/2012
06/12/2011
06/11/2011
06/10/2011
06/09/2011
06/08/2011
06/07/2011
06/06/2011
06/05/2011
6%
75
8%
70
10%
2006 Q1
2006 Q3
2007 Q1
2007 Q3
2008 Q1
2008 Q3
2009 Q1
2009 Q3
2010 Q1
2010 Q3
2011 Q1
2011 Q3
2012 Q1
2012 Q3
2013 Q1
2013 Q3
2014 Q1
600
4%
0%
90
800
6%
2%
95
1000
8%
0,0
240,7
50,0
79,819
-29,8
210,9
184,2
145,6
38,6
56,5
26,1
7,9
20,1
2,4
%'09
%'10
%'11
%'12
%'13
%'14
-0,3%
-1,6%
4,9%
-13,7%
-20,7%
1,6%
-18,4%
10,2%
-3,5
-3,0%
-19,4%
-20,2%
-21,6%
-6,8%
-6,3%
-8,7%
-15,0%
-21,6%
-15,7%
-8,2%
-18,6%
-0,6
-8,5%
5,2%
-6,2%
-26,3%
-7,2%
-7,7%
-5,2%
-19,6%
-18,0%
-25,1%
-18,1%
-16,7%
0,6
-8,7%
0,3%
-7,3%
-26,6%
-8,1%
-9,1%
-4,2%
-19,2%
-32,9%
-7,9%
-17,4%
-2,9%
1,1
-9,4%
-2,4%
-13,7%
-52,7%
-5,7%
-5,9%
-5,0%
-6,1%
-32,0%
6,5%
1,2%
1,2%
4,2%
-5,7%
1,8%
-6,1%
-61,8%
-2,0%
-1,9%
-2,5%
7,9%
8,0%
12,0%
5,8%
5,5%
12,5%
-0,6%
4,6%
-2,0%
-128,8%
-3,2%
-4,9%
-7,1%
-6,4%
-3,7%
1,1%
13,7
3,5
89,2
10,8
69,8
-3,5
25,1
28,6
13,3
2,5
87,3
12,7
68,2
-1,4
26,5
27,9
15,4
3,0
82,5
17,5
64,8
1,3
27,9
26,6
3,69
-6,51
-0,80
-3,05
-1,62
0,30
2,18
-4,14
-0,96
-0,83
-1,13
0,03
1,78
-1,30
-0,48
1,08
0,20
0,09
-6,4
-3,7
1,1
% of GDP
Fixed Investment
Investment in Housing
Total Consumption
Gross Saving
Private Consumption
Balance of goods & services
Exports of goods & services
Imports of goods & services
Net Exports
Private Consumption
Government Consumption
Fixed Investment
Housing Investment
Change in stocks
20,5
18,3
15,9
6,8
5,6
4,9
92,7
90,9
90,8
7,3
9,1
9,2
73,3
72,3
71,8
-11,4
-8,9
-7,0
20,1
22,2
24,0
31,5
31,1
31,0
Contribution to GDP growth (percentage points)
3,04
3,00
2,35
-1,13
-4,58
-5,58
0,87
-1,67
-0,96
-3,16
-3,08
-3,59
-1,70
-1,46
-1,00
-2,77
1,41
0,64
-3,1
-4,9
-7,1
Source: ELL.STAT, Projections EAD Alpha Bank for 2013-2014 (May 2013)
Tourism activity was kept high even in the relatively offseason months of September and October. Hotel occupancy
in the main Greek destinations reached 90%-95% in
September, while occupancy in October and November is
now expected to increase by 15%-20% compared to the
corresponding months of 2012. For the first time from many
years Greeces objective of prolonging the tourism season
looks to have been achieved, a fact that promises a good
outlook for external tourist performance in 2014 as well.
Prospects of healthy growth in tourism in 2014 are now
supported by data concerning pre-bookings, which are
exceeding their level for 2013.
Tourism receipts registered a 14.4% increase in Jan.September 2013, compared with a 0.28% increase in JanSept. 2012 and a 9.8% increase in Jan.-Sept. 2011.
Therefore, these revenues are expected to grow by more
than +14.8% in 2013, reaching 11.5 bn. This will be the
result of the expected substantial growth of international
tourist arrivals to about 18.5 million visitors in 2013 (an
increase by 13.0% in 2013 as a whole from +15.2% yoy in
January-September 2013) from 16.3 million visitors in 2012.
The contribution of the cruise industry is also estimated to be
significant in 2013, elevating tourist receipts from this source
to the level of 0.80 bn, from 0.52 bn in 2012 (Bank of
Greece data).
There are three major factors that have shaped this new
expansionary trend of Greek external tourism in 2013. The
first is the solid comparative advantages, tourist assets and
the inviting image that Greece is projecting abroad. The
second is the clear improvement of hotel (and other tourist
establishments) infrastructure and the advancement in the
quality of service they provide. The last factor is the
Shipping:
Industrial
Production:
Production
of
the
Food
Beverages
Tobacco
Oil(refineary)products
Chemicals
Pharmaceuticals
Basicmetalls
Manuf.ofmetallproducts
Machineryandequipment
Woodandcorkproducts
Plasticproducts
NonMetallicMinerals
Electricalequipment
Textiles
Clothing
Othertransportequipment
Vechicles,trailersandothers
Repair&machineryinstalation
ManufacturingIndustry
Source:ELL.STAT.
Weights
18,2
6,0
1,9
11,3
5,3
2,5
8,0
5,1
2,1
1,2
4,2
10,3
3,0
3,1
3,4
1,6
0,8
4,1
100,0
Jan.Sep.
2013
5,4%
3,1%
2,7%
11,3%
2,5%
11,5%
7,4%
13,6%
5,5%
24,5%
0,3%
0,4%
9,3%
10,8%
1,3%
12,5%
13,3%
12,8%
1,2%
2012
3,8%
8,3%
8,9%
24,3%
11,9%
5,5%
6,1%
9,8%
13,3%
11,1%
9,5%
15,8%
6,0%
17,4%
7,0%
26,5%
14,7%
14,6%
6,7%
2011
4,3%
9,3%
10,5%
14,5%
4,7%
0,6%
6,5%
5,4%
6,3%
2,8%
7,3%
35,9%
13,6%
22,0%
25,4%
37,1%
28,8%
2,6%
9,5%
2009
2,7%
4,8%
2,7%
0,1%
14,6%
18,3%
17,9%
17,7%
27,0%
27,3%
13,7%
24,2%
20,1%
27,8%
23,6%
18,6%
13,3%
15,2%
11,2%
Level
Sep.2013
(2005=100)
91,6
85,1
77,8
124,3
75,2
158,3
86,7
59,4
50,2
39,9
72,8
32,2
59,6
22,8
33,1
17,4
38,1
40,0
73,0
IndexofBusiness expectations in
industry
80,00
Indexofmanufacturing production
(seasonally adjusted)
70,00
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Q32013
Q42012
Q12012
Q22011
Q32010
Q42009
Q12009
Q22008
Q32007
Q42006
Q12006
Q22005
Q32004
Q42003
Q12003
Q22002
Q32001
60,00
Q42000
Q12000
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
-16%
-18%
2005=100
Jan.-Aug. 2013
Supermarkets
Departments stores
Food-beverages-tobacco
Pharmaceautical products, cosmetics
Clothing and footwear
Furniture, electrical equipment
Books, stationery, other goods
Overall Index
Index (except automotive fuel)
Source: ELL.STAT.
81,3
82,5
62,4
74,9
53,9
56,1
61
67,2
67,3
yoy %
Jan.-Aug. 2012
91,7
94,6
65,9
88,1
58,0
62,4
62,4
75,2
75,5
Jan.-Aug. 2013
-11,3
-12,8
-5,2
-15,0
-6,9
-10,2
-2,1
-10,6
-10,9
Jan.-Aug. 2012
-6,4
-6,5
-15,6
-10,1
-21,5
-16,6
-12,1
-11,5
-11,0
Diagram19.Volumeofretailsales
60
15,0%
10,0%
65
5,0%
70
0,0%
75
5,0%
10,0%
%yoygrowth
15,0%
6month movingavg
80
85
07/2013
02/2013
09/2012
04/2012
11/2011
06/2011
01/2011
08/2010
03/2010
10/2009
05/2009
12/2008
07/2008
02/2008
09/2007
04/2007
11/2006
06/2006
01/2006
25,0%
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
20,0%
Sep-13
May-13
Jul-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Jan-13
Sep-12
May-12
Jul-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Jan-12
Sep-11
May-11
Jul-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Jan-11
Sep-10
Jan-Sept.2013
-12.89
16.84
29.74
14.22
10.70
9.05
-2.43
4.76
4.94
3.84
2.09
-4.26
Jan-Sept.2012
-15.65
16.09
31.74
12.92
9.36
10.19
-1.64
4.15
3.15
-1.22
-0.63
2.58
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
ASE Compostive
2010
FTSE 20
2011
2012
2013
Yearly Data
Real GDP Growth
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
- Equipment
- Residential
Unemployment (percent)
Employment
Consumer Price Index (year average)
Unit Labor Costs
Credit Expansion (Private Sector)
Government Deficit (as % of GDP)
Current Account (as % of GDP)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
3,5
22.8
27.4
25.6
8.3
1.4
3,0
3.1
21.5
-3,1
-13.7
-18.4
-20.7
9.5
-0,6
1.3
6.2
4.1
-15.6
-10.3
-4.9
-15.0
-8.2
-21.6
12.6
-2,6
4.7
-0.1
0.0
-10.7
-9.2
-7.1
-19.6
-18.1
-18.0
17.7
-5,6
3.3
-1.8
-3.1
-9.5
-8.6
-6.4
-19.2
-17.4
-32.9
24.2
-8,3
1.5
-6.2
-4.0
-6.0
-2.2
-3.7
-3.2
1.5
-19.0
27.0
-3.5
-0.5
-6.3
-6.5
-12.4
-0.2
-14.3
-4.8
-33.6
7.7
1.2
4.2
5.1
15.9
-9.8
-13.3
2011
year
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
year
available period
-8.7
-37.7
-8.5
43.6
80.6
76.9
-74
-12.1
1.9
-9.6
40.0
78.5
72.9
-81
-11.4
-26.2
-3.9
41.3
79.0
77.6
-75
-9.9
-43.7
-3.8
42.0
79.7
76.7
-69
-13.8
-44.1
1.9
41.4
82.7
81.6
-74,8
-11.8
-30.6
-3.9
41.2
80.0
77.2
-74,8
-12.3 (Jan-Mar)
-43.6(Jan.-Mar)
-0.7 (Jan-Apr)
45,3 (May)
88.8 (Jan-May)
87,6 (Jan-May)
-69,9 (Jan-May)
-3.1
-6.4
-2.9
-2.0
-2.3
-4.0
-6.8
-3.4
-3.3
-0.5
-4.8
-5.3
-3.6
-5.3
-0.2
-4.5
-5.3
-3.7
-4.9
-0.2
-4.0
-5.1
-3.4
-4.4
1.1
-4.0
-5.1
-3.4
-4.4
1.1
-3.4 (Apr)
-5.4 (Apr)
-3.2 (Apr)
-3.4 (Apr)
-0.1 (Apr)
3.3
1.5
-0.9
1.5
1.9
1.9
-1.5
-1.6
1.7
1.2
1.5
0.3
-0.4(May)
-1.4 (May)
0.40
7.46
12.37
4.71
1.39
15.75
0.41
7.81
11.41
4.13
1.04
24.74
0.42
7.67
11.26
3.78
0.74
25.40
0.42
7.52
11.22
3.31
0.43
23.69
0.42
7.45
10.76
3.16
0.21
16.16
0.42
7.61
11.16
3.60
0.57
16.16
0.42 (Apr)
7.44 (Apr)
10.07 (Apr)
3.22 (Apr)
0.21 (Apr)
9.19 (May)
-7.1
-7.2
-19.6
0.3
-7.3
-6.7
-7.4
-22.8
4.2
-14.9
-6.4
-7.2
-21.5
-3.0
-12.9
-6.7
-8.9
-21.5
-4.2
-18.7
-5.7
-8.7
-10.3
-4.8
-8.1
-6.4
-8.1
-19.2
-2.4
-13.7
-5.6 (Q1)
-8.3 (Q1)
-5.6 (Q1)
-2.6 (Q1)
-7.8 (Q1)
20.2
47.5
-27.2
8.8
32.4
-18.4
0.03
-17.3
4.9
10.8
-5.9
2.2
37.5
-3.7
-0.4
-37.0
10.4
21.5
-11.1
5.0
45.5
-6.0
0.3
-72.0
16.1
31.7
-15.7
13.8
88.0
-1.9
2.0
-76.0
22.0
41.6
-19.6
16.3
83.4
-3.3
2.3
-100.5
22.0
41.6
-19.6
16.3
83.4
-3.3
2.3
-100.5
5.4 (Jan-Mar)
9.9 (Jan-Mar)
-4.5 (Jan-Mar)
3.3 (Jan-Mar)
72.3 (Jan-Mar)
-1.3 (Jan-Mar)
1.3 (Jan-Mar)
0.5 (Jan-Mar)
680.4
-51.9
11.8
729.0
7.1
13.4
611.0
-10.2
11.5
739.0
8.6
13.6
908.0
33.4
17.7
908.0
33.4
17.7
1,014.5 (May)
93.1
32.7
-2.0
-4.1
1.0
Quarterly Data
Economic Activity (avg)
Retail Sales Volume
Construction Activity
Industrial Production (Manufacturing)
PMI (manufacturing)
Economic Sentiment Indicator
Index of Business Expectations in Manufacturing
Consumer Sentiment Index
Credit Expansion (eop)
Private Sector
Consumer Credit
Housing
Business
Tourism
Prices (eop)
Consumer Price Index
Core Inflation
Interest Rates (eop)
Savings
Short-term Business Loans
Consumer Loans (with charges)
Housing Loans (with charges)
3 month Euribor
10 year Bond Yield
National Accounts
Real GDP
Final Consumption
Investment
Exports of goods & services
Imports of Goods & services
Balance of Payments (in bn - Cum ulative )
Exports of Goods
Imports of Goods
Trade Balance
Invisibles Balance
Invisibles Balance / Trade Account
Current Account
Direct Investments
Portfolio Investments
Athens Stock Exchange (eop)
Composite Index
% change
Market Capitalization ASE (% of GDP)
2013