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TATAS NEXT-GEN
LOW-COST CAR
A prototype of a composite
car is part of Tata Motors
growth ambitions
p.04
PRE-BUDGET SPECIAL
A DECADE OF FISCAL
IRRESPONSIBILITY
Even as Malaysias AirAsia gets
set to enter India, its the
funds-flushed troika from the
Gulf Emirates, Etihad and
Qatar that are well placed
to catch the tailwinds on
the Indian flight path
p.06-11
p.13
06
cover story
FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 02, 2013
Sheikh, Rattle
And Fly
Even as Malaysias largest budget carrier AirAsia gets set to enter India
with the Tata group as a partner, its the funds-flushed troika from the
Gulf Emirates, Etihad and Qatar that are well placed to catch the
tailwinds on the Indian flight path
:: Binoy Prabhakar
ven for an industry that has always been inherently vibrant, last week was unusually eventful
for aviation. It began with the news that a sale of
stake by Jet Airways, Indias second-largest carrier by passengers carried, to Abu Dhabis fastgrowing airline, Etihad Airways, will be delayed.
If the news was disconcerting, Jet didnt show it.
The airline cut fares by nearly a half on Tuesday,
mimicking a move by budget carrier SpiceJet in
January, when Indian air travellers had become
accustomed to the idea that the era of cheap airfare was history. A day later, the Tatas said they
were taking another shot at aviation partnering
Malaysian budget carrier AirAsia. Turns out run-
A New
Kid on the
Air Block
AirAsias plan to enter the
domestic aviation market
partnering the Tatas is
surprising on many counts.
The airline's wariness
about the Indian market is
well-known because of its
struggles on overseas
routes from India since the
launch in December 2008.
According to consultancy
Capa, the brand has
struggled partly because of
its inability to access local
distribution networks.
Travel agents still account
for most bookings in India
but they have not
supported AirAsia as they
do not use the fee-for-service model," it noted in a
recent report. Another
impediment was its
exclusive partnership with
reservation website
Expedia. India happens to
be the only Asian market
where the group has
reduced capacity in the
past year. It dropped out of
three of the nine routes due
to losses. The two busiest
Mumbai and Delhi were
dropped from the network
in 2012 as part of a
rationalisation exercise. Already, AirAsia CEO Tony
Fernandes has indicated
that he is skittish about
flying between Delhi and
Mumbai due to the high airport charges. Today, the
carrier accounts for just
10% of seat capacity in the
India-Southeast Asia
market compared with 14%
a year ago, says Capa.
That said, the
consultancy also noted that
securing the right local
partner could resolve
many of the challenges
AirAsia has faced in India.
The airline seems to have
done exactly that by roping
in the Tatas.
The Indian aviation
industry as a whole may
be in a shambles because it
is a competitive and
largely unprofitable
market thanks to high fuel
taxes and airport charges,
but long-term growth
opportunities are vast.
Mohan Ranganathan, an
air safety consultant, says
the venture is likely to
succeed. Focussing on
tier-2 and tier-3 routes in
the south will feed
AirAsias larger network,
he says. Then there is the
credibility of the Tatas.
07
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FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 02, 2013
Emirates
Airline
Etihad
Airways
National carrier of UAE
Ownership Wholly owned by the
Abu Dhabi government
Fast Fact
Fast Fact
2012-13*
President
Tim Clark
James Hogan
Akbar Al Baker
2011-12*
Change (%)
Key Financials
2012
2011
Change (%)
Revenue ($ billion)
9.7
8.3
16.8
Revenue ($ billion)
4.8
4.1
17
464
225
106
42
14
200
Global Operations
Hub
Key Financials*
Increase in profit on
Ebitda level in 2011-12
Launch
Global Operations
Launch
Hub
Dubai International
Airport
Global Operations
November 2003
Launch
Abu Dhabi
Intl Airport
Hub
129
Destinations in
75 countries
86
Destinations in 55
countries
124
Destinations in
70 countries
197
Fleet in service
70
Fleet
119
Fleet
202
Fleet ordered
90
Fleet ordered
250
Fleet ordered
42,800
11,263
10,656
1,500
Employees
Indians
Indian Operations
Launch October
Employees
Indians
22,100
5,000
Indian Operations
25, 1985
Employees
Indians
Indian Operations
Launch 2004
Launch 1997
63 Flights a week
9 Destinations Ahmedabad, Bengaluru,
95
12
12.3%
1.5%
4.71 million
Flights a week
Takeaway Right now, Emirates has a clear lead over the other two carriers
carriers (see Why Jet & Etihad). Jet is
starved for capital and Etihad, which has
pushed alliances that give it strategic access in specific geographies, stands to
grow in one of its most important markets.
India Shining
To fully understand Etihads gains, we
need to look at the airline from the lens of
the other two big carriers based in the Persian Gulf Emirates Airline and Qatar Air-
country. Akbar Al Baker, the chief executive of Qatar Airways, says India is a key
part of the airlines growth strategy, which
is evident from its services to the most
number of destinations compared with
any other country in our network or by any
other international airline.
Indians also form the lions share of their
workforce (see The Gulfs Big Three). It is
another matter that its because they are
inexpensive, deployed largely for the least
Key Financials
Qatar
Airways
08
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FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 02, 2013
Jet Airways
8.18%
7.15%
56
49
Emirates
27.15%
7.01%
185
48
Air India
16.5%
Etihad
11.24%
113
63
FlyDubai
1.46%
10
Air Arabia
SpiceJet
4.08%
28
Takeaway
Emirates
has
grabbed
the biggest
market
share
thanks to a
larger
number
of flights
17.23%
118
Flight attendants of an
Emirates flight
A Three-Way Race
As an early mover, the biggest beneficiary
of this growth has been Emirates. Still,
that does not explain how the carrier has
come to fly 185 times a week from Dubai
to 10 cities in India, considerably higher
than any other international carrier. Emirates edge over rivals stems from the air
traffic rights that Dubai secured from India as part of the open skies policy pursued by the government since 20042005. These arrangements, known as Air
Service Agreements or bilaterals (see
What are Air Service Agreements) in
bilaterals and other open skies agreements are par for the course. In turn,
6th freedom traffic rights have also expanded as a result; so in a way you could
argue that this is indeed the new norm
for the industry and is also part of the
reason why co-operation, not competition on treaties is the way forward.
Nevertheless, the CAG report draws attention to the one-sided nature of benefits
to Emirates despite state-run Air Indias
repeated protests at the lack of reciprocity. It highlighted the Dubai authorities
refusal to agree to requested reciprocal
arrangements for Air India, citing acute
infrastructural constraints at the Dubai
airport. Indian officials overlooked the
Dubai airports status as one of the biggest
in the world. Terminal 3, which is reserved for Emirates, is not only the
worlds largest air terminal, it is also the
worlds largest building.
09
cover story
FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 02, 2013
st
freedoms have
been officially
recognised by international treaties
The right to fly
over a foreign
country without
landing
nd
Freedom
es to Dubai in September 2011 and SpiceJet in June 2012 to comply with a rule that
says Indian carriers must fly on domestic
routes for five years before they expand
overseas. Yet, the total number of seats
apportioned to Indian carriers is still only
42,978 compared with the 54,200 allotted to Emirates and FlyDubai, Dubais
budget airline, according to data collated
from the Dubai airport.
3
4
5
Example
rd
th
London-New Delhi
for Air India
th
Not Enough
However, Emirates is still hungry for more
seats from India. Last year, the carrier approached the National Council of Applied
Economic Research (NCAER) to push its
Description
th
A first-class
lounge of
Qatar
Airways
case with the Indian government. By contrasting the increase of seat allocation
from the present 54,200 a week to
60,000, 70,000 and 80,000, a study by
NCAER notes that if the seats allocated to
Emirates are increased, then the corresponding benefits to the economy and
tourism sector will also increase.
The study establishes Emirates advantage due to the extensive use of the 6th
freedom right, revealing that 55% of its
passengers flew to destinations beyond
Dubai from India compared with the 45%
traffic between India and Dubai. But it is
also careful to highlight that only 18% of
the 6th freedom traffic flies between
10
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FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 02, 2013
EMIRATES
Last MoU April
WIN-WIN
23, 2008
54,200
Integration of frequent-flyer
programmes
Sharing of resources
1,701
ETIHAD
Last MoU* February
International expansion
4, 2008
13,330
Entitled seats a week in each direction
to Indian destinations
*The Indian external affairs ministry issued
notes verbales (diplomatic notes) on
February 10, 2009 and May 11, 2010
QATAR AIRWAYS
Last MoU February
6, 2009
24,292
For example
Entitled seats
after applying
the 2% flexibility
line does very well, but the boss cant go out and buy anything and everything.
Jenks says the Etihad airline acquisition policy is a way
to ramp up its global market share. For example, an Air
Berlin or [soon] Jet Airways frequent short-haul passenger
within EU or India will be more likely to connect in Abu
Dhabi airport when it flies long-haul.
Indeed, long-haul flights are key to the ambitions of all
the three Gulf carriers. Passengers, particularly business
travellers who are the source of most airline profits, will
pay more to not change planes, says Richard Aboulafia,
an aviation consultant at the Teal Group, an American
consulting company.
That explains their big strides in markets like the US.
Emirates launched direct services to Washington DC last
September and Etihad is due to follow this summer. Etihads strategy in India centres on creation of substantial
traffic to destinations in Europe and North America and of
course, the Gulf. Both are offering passengers from India
a one-stop connection to the US capital, says StrategicAero Research.coms Ahmad.
Not to be outdone, Qatar will start flights to Chicago
from April 10. The airline has also announced the launch
of six new international gateways in recent months, including Gassim in Saudi Arabia and Najaf in Iraq.
A New Order
A few Indian competitors are fighting back. IndiGo, Indias biggest airline by passengers carried and the only
one known to make consistent profits, is expanding operations to the Gulf, according to its president Aditya Ghosh.
The carrier currently flies 16 times (to and fro) a day between India and Dubai and will connect Thiruvananthapuram with the city-state from March 1. Ghosh says keeping in mind the high travel demand, IndiGo will look to
launch operations between Kozhikode and Dubai as a
part of its summer schedule this year.
Yet, other financially-strapped Indian carriers should
be worried. Aboulafia says most other airlines and lessors
care solely about profit, pricing their products and running their businesses accordingly. But these players (from
the Gulf ), he says, are trying to preserve oil and gas wealth
by converting it into something tangible airlines, aircraft
leasing, and aviation services. They dont need to make
money, at least not in the short term.
That makes them the best bets to inherit the future of
air travel. Already, they have pulled global airline alliances, which offer passengers more destinations, easier
connections and transfer of frequent-flier miles, to their
hubs. Al Baker was quoted as saying: When you cannot
defeat someone, youve got to join them.
That sounds like bravado, but it also reflects the realities of a new era of aviation. The Capa report says the international aviation industry is adjusting to the impact of
the unfettered global ambitions of these carriers.
According to Capa, the historical weakness of international services by Indian carriers means that nearly 40%
of Indian international traffic travels to its final destination via an intermediate offshore airport. The Gulf hubs
capture more than half of such flows. Most of the airlines
seeking additional rights are 6th freedom carriers, which
will further squeeze the foreign routes of Indian carriers.
Not to forget AirAsia, whose operations will open a new
line of confrontation on domestic and foreign routes.
The India head of the foreign airline quoted earlier says
when the bilaterals are due for review, nothing is going to
change. Obviously, he is referring to the poor prospects
of Indian carriers thanks to the staggering ambitions of
the three Gulf carriers.
11
cover story
FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 02, 2013
Jet, Set...IndiGo!
Indias most preferred full-service airline brand is in desperate need of an
overhaul if it has to counter the threat from the value-for-money brigade
:: Manisha Singhal
Mid-air Confusion
Jet acquired Sahara [in 2007] and then
rechristened it JetLite. Later it added more
confusion by adding eight business class seats
to its JetKonnect service. But the business
class seats on the JetKonnect flights offer me a
different experience than the flights on Jet full
service. This has a huge negative impact on
the Jet brand, points out Bijoor.
Initially, Jet Airways had a much clearer
brand proposition. Among the several lowcost airlines that were available at the time, it
stood out as a brand that delivered highquality, customer-focused service, though at
a premium, points out Rishtee Batra, assistant professor of marketing at the Indian
School of Business.
IndiGos
delivery is
good & there
is clarity in
terms of what
the airline
is offering
Santosh Desai,
MD & CEO,
FUTUREBRANDS
Jet is working
on several
initiatives:
on time
performance,
constant
product and
service
innovation
Manish Dureja,
VICE-PRESIDENT,
JET AIRWAYS
Harish Bijoor Consults Inc recently did an audit by identifying 47 touch points at which an
airline interacts with consumers, like airport
kiosks, staff, hostesses and the like. Of these,
the audit suggested that IndiGo had perfected
46 touch points, right from the badges worn
by the hostesses, to the way food is packed, to
the uniqueness of those boxes. The bottom
line: IndiGo respects detail, which helps give it
a singular, conscious identity.
Brand Push
In an airline industry, brand consultants argue, two aspects are critical: one is operations
and the other is branding. An airline seat is a
commodity and a differentiation in that commodity is what gives you a kick. Experts say Jet
did a brilliant job for long time on branding
and a good job on operations but today its focus is more on operations and less on branding but IndiGo has done both.
IndiGos delivery on the whole is good and
there is clarity in terms of what the airline is offering. They sell themselves as full value at low
cost, says Santosh Desai, MD & CEO at Futurebrands, a consultancy. He adds that IndiGos brand equity in terms of perception is superior to that of Jet in the current scenario.
IndiGo may have done enough to put Jets
tag of being the most-preferred airline under a
cloud. Latest numbers for the peak Decemberended quarter show that Jets passenger numbers have declined by 13% on domestic routes.
Jets Dureja counters that today we are Indias largest private-airline group and continue
to retain our undisputed market leadership
the airline is also constantly working very hard
on several initiatives such as on time performance, constant product and service innovation, which would manifest itself in the form of
superior service quality, greater reliability and
enhanced connectivity for all our guests.
A deal with Etihad, which is still some way
from being inked, and the resultant financial
infusion may be just what Jet needs to refresh
a brand that still has a lot in store.