CH 09

LEY_bk9_09_2ndpp Page 247 Wednesday, January 12, 2005 11:16 AM
Chapter 9
Probability
This chapter deals with relative frequencies and theoretical probabilities.
After completing this chapter you should be able to:
conduct experiments to determine the relative frequency of an event
estimate the probability of an event from experimental data
express the probability of an event using the probability definition
calculate probabilities for simple events
simulate events using random number generators.
Syllabus reference NS5.1.3

WM: S5.1.1S5.1.5
248
Probability (Chapter 9) Syllabus reference NS5.1.3
Diagnostic Test
Use this table for questions 1 and 2. A tennis racquet is spun 100 times. It has rough on one side
and smooth on the other. The table shows the results.
Outcome
Frequency
Rough
81
Smooth
19
The relative frequency for rough is:

81
19
81
A 81
B ---------- C -----D -----100
81
19
Based on the table, the probability

that a spin of this racquet will result in
smooth is:
19
81
A 81
B 19
C ---------- D ---------100
100
Relative frequency
A 52 card pack is shuffled and one card is

dealt. The probability that it is a diamond
is:
1
1
A --B -----C 52
D 13
4
52
Which statement is true?

A There are 8 teams in our netball
competition so our probability of
winning the competition is 1--8- .
A normal six-sided die is thrown once.

The probability of getting a 4 is:
1
4
1
A --B --C --D even
4
6
6
B A coin has been tossed 8 times and all

8 have been heads, therefore the next
toss must be tails.
C Traffic lights can be red, amber or
green. Therefore the probability the
light is green is 1--3- .
A hat contains 1 red, 5 white and 7 blue

tickets. A ticket is selected at random
from the hat. The probability that the
ticket is white is:
5
1
7
A 5
B -----C -----D -----13
13
13
A raffle has 100 tickets numbered from
1 to 100. The probability that the ticket
selected is a number between 8 and 15
inclusive is:
1
8
15
23
A ---------- B ---------- C ---------- D ---------100
100
100
100
A poker die has faces A, K, Q, J, 10, 9 and
is rolled once. The probability of getting a
K or a J is:
1
2
4
1
A --B --C --D --6
6
6
4
Percentage
D There are 24 horses in the Slipper

Handicap horse race. Therefore the
probability that I will draw the
favourite out of a hat containing the
1
-.
names of all the horses is ----24
9
A netball shooter has a 60% chance of

scoring a goal from just inside the goal
circle. To simulate the number of goals
from 50 shots at goal a table of random
numbers can be used by:
A assigning the digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
to scoring a goal
B assigning the digits 0, 6 to missing
C assigning the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 to
scoring a goal
D assigning the digits 0, 1, 2, 3 to
missing
If you have any difficulty with these questions, refer to the examples and questions in the sections
listed in the table.
Question
Section
1, 2
37
Investigation 1
WM: Communicating, Applying Strategies, Reasoning
Probability experiments
A normal coin has two sides, heads and tails. The theoretical probability of each event is 1--2- .
This experiment examines the probability of heads and tails.
1
a Toss a coin 50 times and complete this table.

Result
Tally
Frequency
Fraction of total
Heads
Tails
b
c
d
e
Toss the coin another 50 times and complete a second table.

Compare the results in the two tables and comment on any differences.
Combine your two tables and compare the results of the new table out of 100 trials.
Combine the tables of nine other people with yours. Comment on the fractions out of 1000
for each of the two events.
f The fraction for each should be 1--2- . Comment on the difference in results from the 50 trials
versus the 1000 trials.
g What would you expect if this experiment was repeated 1 000 000 times?
h Comment on the statement The more times the coin is tossed, the closer the fraction of
heads and tails gets to 1--2- each.
2
Chircop tossed a coin 100 times: heads came up 53 times and tails came up 47 times.
47
- . Is she correct? Comment.
a Chircop concluded that the probability of tails is --------100
b Should Chircop expect the same results if she repeats her experiment of tossing the coin
100 times? Explain.
c If Chircop tossed the coin 1 000 000 times, how many tails would she expect? Explain.
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250
When a die is thrown there are six equally likely outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6.

a Throw a die 120 times
Result
Tally
Frequency
Fraction
and complete the table.
(Probability)
1
2
3
4
5
6
b How many of each

number did you expect?
c Explain any differences
Total
between your expected
values and the results.
d Combine your results with the class and comment.
4
120
Rachel rolled a normal six-sided die twelve times. She did not throw a 6. Rachel concluded
that the probability of obtaining a 6 was 0. Why is she wrong? How many 6s would be
expected in twelve throws of the die?
Research Assignment
WM: Communicating, Reasoning
Chance statements
1
Collect statements involving the use of chance language in the media.
Organise these statements from most likely to least likely to occur.
Assign each event with a probability between 0 and 1.
Comment on the statements.
A. THEORETICAL PROBABILITY VERSUS

EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS
From investigation 1 you would have concluded that the more trials conducted the closer the experimental
results are to the theoretical results. In fact, theoretical probability only makes predictions for overall results
in the long term. With experiments of a small number of trials, there may be little or no correlation between
expected results and experimental results.
In some instances it is either very complicated or impossible to calculate the theoretical probability of an event.
In this case the relative frequency gives an estimate for the probability.
Example 1
A cylindrical can is tossed 200 times. The number of times it landed on its side
and on an end were recorded in this table.
Outcome
Frequency
Top end
Bottom end
Side
Relative frequency
Percentage
36
38
126
a Complete the table.

b In future tosses of the can estimate the probability that it will land on its side.
a
Outcome
Frequency
Top end
36
Bottom end
38
Side
126
Relative frequency
36
---------200
38
---------200
126
---------200
Percentage
18%
19%
63%
b P(lands on side) = 63%
Exercise 9A
1
A tennis racquet is spun 200 times. It has rough on one side and smooth on the other.
The table shows the results.
Outcome
Rough
Smooth
Frequency
86
114
Relative frequency
Percentage
a Copy and complete the table.

b Estimate the probability that a spin will result in rough.
2
Four hundred car salespeople were randomly selected and asked the country in which their
car was manufactured. The results are shown in the table.
Country
Australia
Japan
Korea
Germany
Other
Frequency
146
128
56
48
22
Relative frequency
Percentage

b Use this data to estimate the probability that a salesperson chosen at random will have a
car manufactured in Australia.
c Estimate the probability that the salespersons car is manufactured in Germany.
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252
At a state wide teachers conference the colour of each teachers car was recorded; the
results appear in the table. There were 200 teachers cars.
Colour
White
Number
53
Red
48
Blue
27
Green
25
Yellow
21
Black
12
Silver
Other
Relative frequency
53
---------200
48
---------200
Percentage
26.5%
a Copy the table and complete the relative frequency and percentage columns.
b Using these results, how many red teachers cars would you expect in a school with
50 teachers? Explain.
c Complete a similar table for the teachers in your school. How do your schools results
compare? Explain any differences.
4
In a year, a restaurant served 4754 bottles of wine. Of these 86 were returned because the
wine was faulty. Based on this information, estimate the probability that a bottle of wine from
this restaurant is faulty when opened.
In a survey of 5000 marriages it was found that 1285 ended in divorce. Matt and Diane are
getting married. Based on this information, what is the approximate probability that their
marriage will end in divorce?
B. THEORETICAL PROBABILITY
In stage 4 we had the definition of the probability of an event A occurring. It was:
number of favourable outcomes
P(A) = ------------------------------------------------------------------------n
where n is the total number in the sample space.
In stage 4 the following probability properties were developed:
The probability of an event occurring is between 0 and 1.
If P(A) = 0 then the event A is impossible.
If P(A) = 1 then the event A is a certainty.
P(the event A does not occur) = 1 P(A).
Example 1
A spinner is made from a regular pentagon with equal sections
containing the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
a
b
c
d
List the sample space.

Find the probability of spinning a 3.
Find the probability of spinning an odd number.
Find the probability of not spinning a 3.
2
3
5
4
a The five numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 comprise the sample space n = 5.

number of 3s
1
b P(3) = --------------------------------------------------------------- = --number in sample space 5
number of odd numbers
3
c P(odd number) = --------------------------------------------------------------- = --number in sample space 5
d The complementary event to spinning a 3 is not spinning a 3.
P(not a 3)
= 1 P(3)
Checking:
= 1 1--5The numbers that are not 3 are 1, 2, 4, 5
4
= --5 P(not a 3) = 4--5- .
Exercise 9B
1
A square spinner has the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 in equal sections. For one spin, determine the
probability of getting a:
a 1
b 3
c 5
d number less than 5
e number other than 1
A spinner in the shape of a regular hexagon has equal sections marked 1 to 6. For one spin,
determine the probability of getting a:
a 6
b 4
c 3
d odd number less than 6
e even number less than 7
f number less than 7
g 8
h number other than 4
A spinner is made from a regular decagon with 10 equal sections containing the numbers
1 to 10.
a List the sample space.
b Find the probability of spinning a 5.
c Find the probability of spinning an even number.
d Find the probability of spinning an odd number.
e Find the probability of not spinning a 10.
f Find the probability of spinning an 11.
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254
A bag contains 3 red, 4 white and 5 blue tickets. A ticket is selected at random from the bag.
Determine the probability that the ticket is:
a red
b white
c blue
d green
e not red
f not white
g red or blue
h not red or white
i red, white or blue
Adam has spread out a pack of playing cards. He picks a card at random.
Hearts and diamonds are red.
Clubs and spades are black.
Picture cards are King, Queen, Jack.
P(spade)
means the
probability of
selecting a
spade.
Find:
a P(spade)
d P(a black 10)
g P(a 5 or a 6)
b P(4 of hearts)
e P(ace)
h P(green card)
c
f
i
P(club)
P(picture card)
P(not a picture card)
List the sample space for:

A card chosen at
a tossing a coin
random means each
card has the same
b the sexes of a 2-child family
chance of being
selected.
c tossing 2 coins at the same time
d rolling a die
e the order in which 3 people can stand in a line
A fair die is rolled. Determine the probability of getting:

a a 2 or a 3
b a positive integer
c a result greater than 4
d a non-6
e a7
A poker die has faces A, K, Q, J, 10 and 9, and is rolled once.

Determine the probability of getting:
a an A
b a number
c an A or a number
A symmetrical octahedral (8-sided) die has numbers 1 to 8 marked on its faces.

It is rolled once. Determine the probability of throwing:
a a2
b a number less than 4
c a number less than 1
d a number between 0 and 9
10
A regular pentagonal (5-sided) spinner has the numbers 1 to 5 marked on its partitions.
Determine the probability that after a spin the result will be:
a an even number
b a prime
c a factor of 6
11
A bag contains 3 red and 7 blue buttons, and one is randomly selected from the bag.
Determine the probability that the button is:
a red
b blue
c red or blue
d green
12
The $2 lottery has 100 000 tickets. Find the probability of:
a winning first prize with one ticket
b not winning first prize with 50 tickets
13
One ticket is chosen in a lottery consisting of 100 tickets numbered 1 to 100, and the
choice is made randomly. Determine the probability that the ticket is:
a a two-digit number
b a multiple of 12
c a multiple of 7 or 11
14
Determine the probability that a person randomly selected in the street has his (or her)
birthday in September. (Dont forget leap years.)
15
Many games require a 6 to start, when rolling a normal die.

a What is the probability of starting on the first roll of the die?
b Kristie says 3 is her lucky number. Is she more likely to start first roll if a 3 is required
instead of a 6?
Investigation 2
WM: Reasoning, Communicating, Applying Strategies
A pair of dice
From the illustration, we can
clearly see that when two dice
are rolled there are 36 possible
outcomes.
Of these {1, 3}, {2, 2} and {3, 1}
give us a sum of 4.
Consider the following question:
What is the likelihood of the sum
of the numbers being 4, when two
dice are rolled?
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256
The answer to this question lies in the fact that 3 out of the possible 36 outcomes give a sum of 4.
Hence the probability of a sum of 4 when two dice are rolled is
3
-----36
(or 8.333%).
Using the illustration

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12
Sum
above, copy and
complete the table.
3
1
----------Fraction of total
36
36
The figures listed in
this table are our
expected results for the experiment of determining the likelihood of a particular sum when
two dice are rolled.
Now toss two dice 200 times and

record in a table the sum of the
two numbers for each toss.
Copy and complete the table
given opposite.
Pool as much data as you can

with other students and find
the overall percentage of
each sum. Make a
comparison between
the results you have
obtained and the
expected results
from the previous
table.
Sum
Tally
Frequency
Fraction of total
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Total
200
C. CALCULATING PROBABILITIES
This section involves two groupwork activities designed to promote the understanding of probability concepts
relating to theoretical and calculated probabilities.
Groupwork 1
1
Each person designs their own spinner with four colours. Make the
spinner so that all colours are not equally likely but do not tell the
probabilities of each colour occurring.
Using the spinner you made, conduct a trial of 100 spins to see how closely the experimental
results match the probabilities.
a Working in pairs, use another persons spinner. One person spins, the other person
records the results. The person recording cannot look at the spinner.
b The recorder decides on the number of trials and must estimate the probabilities of each
of the colours after the experiment.
c Compare your results and explain them.
d Swap over so you are recording and spinning with another spinner, and repeat parts a, b
and c.
What can you conclude about the number of trials compared with the accuracy of the results?
Groupwork 2
1
a Using between 20 and 52 cards, each person designs a deck with their
own probabilities for drawing a red or a black card.
b Swap decks around the group. To experimentally find the probabilities
of red or black cards, shuffle the deck then select a card and record its colour.
Replace the card, shuffle, then select another card.
c The challenge is to be the first to correctly identify the probabilities. You may not guess
and you are only permitted one answer. You must decide how many trials are enough.
The teacher prepares a number of bags with counters or marbles of two different colours in
each bag. Only the teacher knows the number of each colour.
a Students in their groups draw a counter or a marble, note its colour and replace it.
b They repeat this process until they are ready to answer with the probability of each colour.
Each group is allowed only one answer.
c The first correct group wins.
d Compare the experimental results of all groups. Does this provide a better estimate?
Investigation 3
WM: Applying Strategies, Reasoning, Communicating
Rectangular spinners
This investigation is suitable for four students. A rectangular spinner
can be made from cardboard using a match or toothpick for its
spindle.
You are to investigate the chances of the spinner finishing on
blackened edges on opposite sides of the spinner. The other
two sides are to be 4 cm long.
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258
Make eight different spinners for, say, x = 1 cm, 2 cm,

2.5 cm, 3 cm, 3.5 cm, 4 cm, 5 cm, 6 cm or other values of
your own choosing.
4 cm
x cm
Each spinner is to be twirled several hundred times so that an estimate of the probability of
getting a black edge results for each of the spinners. Divide this task between the members
of your group.
Collect the data and complete a table like the one given below.
x
2.5
3.5
P(black) estimate
4
Graph P(black) against x. Write about the shape of your graph and explain how it could be
used to estimate P(black) for various values of x.
From your graph estimate:

a x, when P(black) = 0.1, 0.4, 0.8
b P(black) if x = 4.5
D. EQUALLY LIKELY EVENTS

Equally likely events are events that have the same (equal) chance of occurring.
For example, when a coin is tossed, heads and tails are equally likely events. When selected at random, they
have an equal chance of occurring.
Sometimes events are not equally likely.
Example 1
Comment on these statements:
a My family has four boys so the next baby born will be a boy.
b There are ten teams in the football competition, therefore the probability that my
1
-.
team will win the competition is ----10
a The fact that four boys were born is a coincidence. The next baby has approximately
an equal chance of being a boy or a girl.
b Some teams are better than others, so the probability of each team winning is not
1
- , if it is poor the
equal. If your team is good the probability will be greater than ----10
probability could be very close to 0.
Exercise 9D
1
Comment on these statements:

a There are 26 letters in the English alphabet. Therefore the probability that a persons
1
-.
name starts with Z is ----26
b There are 12 teams in my netball competition. Therefore the probability that my team will
1
-.
win the competition is ----12
c There are 128 players in the main draw of Wimbledon. Therefore the probability of picking
1
-.
the winner at the start of the tournament is --------128
d Traffic lights can be red, amber or green. Therefore the probability that a particular traffic
light is red is 1--3- .
1
-.
e There are 52 cards in a pack. Therefore the probability of selecting an ace is ----13
f I need a 6 on a normal die to start a game. Therefore the probability that I will start first
go is 1--6- .
g There are 24 horses in the Melbourne Cup field. Therefore the probability of selecting the
1
-.
winner from a list of their names is ----24
h A letter is chosen from the word INSIGHT. Therefore the probability that it is an I is 2--7- .
What assumptions are made in these statements?

a 30% of the population do not work. Therefore the probability of being unemployed is 0.3.
b I asked five people leaving the corner store what drink they bought. Four of them bought
orange juice and one bought lemonade. Therefore the probability that someone buys
orange juice is 4--5- .
c Of the thirty students in 9 Red, only three watch the evening news. Therefore the
1
-.
probability that someone watches the evening news is ----10
Investigation 4
WM: Applying Strategies, Reasoning
Instant money and bingo

Many sporting clubs and service clubs use instant money or
bingo type tickets to raise money. We will consider an instant
money type of game where amounts of $1, $2, $5, $10 and
$25 can be won. A ticket will show five different amounts, and
if three of them are the same then that ticket will win.
$5 $2 $1 $25 $10
The second ticket wins $2 because three $2 symbols appear.
$2 $2 $10 $5 $2
Losing ticket
Winning ticket
The social club is raising money for new clubrooms. They decide to sell 25 000 of these tickets at
20 cents each. They will distribute $2500 in prizes. They decide to print:
5 prizes of $25
25 prizes of $10
125 prizes of $5
250 prizes of $2
and the remaining prize money is in $1 tickets.
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260
Determine how many prizes of $1 will have to be produced so $2500 is given in prizes.
When all tickets have been sold, how much money does the social club expect to make?
Determine the probability that when buying one ticket you will win:
a a $25 prize
b a $10 prize
c a $5 prize
d a $2 prize
e a $1 prize
f any prize
Investigation 5
WM: Applying Strategies, Reasoning, Communicating
Roulette
One game played extensively in casinos is roulette. The
game consists of a horizontal rotating wheel containing
38 equal slots and a steel marble that will spin into
one of them. The slots are numbered 00, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4,
5, up to 36. The slots are red or black for the
numbers 1 to 36. 0 and 00 are usually green.
(00 appears on the American version.)
Gamblers place their betting chips on the table as shown (International layout). They can bet on red
or black or single numbers or combinations of numbers.
a
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
Result
$ won
Individual number 5 (pleine)

Two adjacent numbers (cheval)
Three numbers in a row (transversale pl.)
Four numbers in a square (carre)
First four numbers (0, 1, 2, 3)
Two rows, six numbers (transversale 6)
A vertical row of 12 numbers (colonne)
First twelve numbers 112 (12 p.)
Second twelve numbers 1324 (12 m.)
Third twelve numbers 2536 (12 d.)
All even numbers 2, 4, 6, 8 ... (pair)
All odd numbers 1, 3, 5, 7... (impair)
All red numbers 1, 3, 5, 7 ... (rouge)
All black numbers 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, ... (noir)
All numbers 118 (manque)
All numbers 1936 (passe)
35
17
11
8
8
5
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
In the result table, the $ won shows how much can be won from a $1 bet. A loss results in the casino
keeping your $1. For example:
a win on number 17 pays $35 (and you also get back your original bet of $1)
a win on b above pays $17 if an 8 or 9 occurs.
(Assume that we use the table as shown, i.e. no 00 slot.)
1
If you bet $10 on number 23 and win, what will be your return?
If you bet $1 on each number, how much does it cost you and what will be your return?
From your answer to question 2 determine what percentage profit the casino expects to
make.
What profit does the casino hope to make on coloured bets?
Your expected gain can be calculated using:

Expected gain = Possible $ winnings P(winning) Amount bet P(losing)
and a negative answer means an expected loss.
Copy and complete the following table assuming that you bet $1 each time.
Type of bet
Possible $
winnings
P(winning)
P(losing)
Expected $
gain or loss
6
-----37
31
-----37
0.027
a
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
i
6
Is the game of roulette fair?
What type of bet (if any) is best to use in roulette?
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262
Investigation 6
WM: Applying Strategies, Reasoning
Concealed number tickets

Many clubs have ticket machines that contain sets of consecutive numbers from 0001, 0002,
0003, up 2000. These games are relatively inexpensive to play and are used as fundraisers
for the club (e.g. football club, golf club).
Tickets are ejected at random at a cost of 20 cents each. A small cardboard cover is removed to
reveal the concealed number.
Suppose a golf club can buy golf balls as prizes for $2.50 each and a set of 2000 tickets for the
machine at $30. One club shows the following winners table.
Winning numbers
777
1000, 2000
any multiple of 25
Prize
Cover
removed
4 golf balls
2 golf balls
1 golf ball
If all tickets are sold, how many balls are paid out as prizes?
Determine the total cost to the club for a complete round of 2000 tickets going through the
machine.
What percentage profit is made by the club?
If you purchase one ticket, what is your chance of winning at least one ball?
What is your $ expectation for the playing of one game, i.e. purchasing one ticket.
Design your own concealed ticket game for a club or group so that the customer receives
an expected payout of around 80% (and certainly not less than 80%).
E. RANDOM NUMBER GENERATORS

A simulation is a simple mathematical model that allows us to investigate a more complicated, time-consuming
or costly situation. In some cases we can estimate the probability of events that are very difficult to determine
using the formal rules of probability.
This section uses tables of random numbers to model situations.
This table of random numbers is to be used in this exercise.

0 8 2 1 3 2 9 7 8 4 7 6 5 6 1 4 6 6 3 5 1 0 1 9 5 1 0 0 1 2 4 9 3 3 8 4 0
6 3 3 1 4 5 8 0 2 9 6 2 5 7 2 3 9 9 6 7 5 5 3 6 1 9 6 0 9 3 0 6 4 8 6 7 9
8 6 7 1 5 5 5 2 9 3 1 5 8 0 0 2 1 7 6 0 0 4 9 3 3 3 4 7 5 4 5 8 6 4 0 6 9
3 3 0 1 7 9 2 6 3 0 5 1 5 1 4 8 2 6 8 4 4 7 2 9 8 8 1 9 5 4 0 6 9 3 4 1 2
7 0 2 5 5 3 4 4 9 2 0 3 4 4 7 7 4 7 4 0 4 5 9 3 4 6 8 2 4 4 7 2 3 8 2 5 5
3 5 7 9 9 7 4 5 3 9 4 2 7 9 6 9 0 3 1 4 9 5 9 2 9 9 1 8 3 3 3 2 5 1 4 5 6
8 2 7 0 9 2 2 0 9 3 4 6 5 6 8 1 3 7 7 1 1 9 8 8 5 0 5 5 7 1 7 9 7 8 3 6 9
2 3 3 5 2 3 4 1 6 1 7 6 5 6 8 1 3 7 7 1 1 9 8 8 5 0 5 5 7 1 7 9 7 8 3 6 7
4 6 3 1 0 3 0 7 8 6 4 6 7 8 4 9 8 9 6 8 0 2 9 2 0 8 9 4 3 1 1 7 0 5 0 1 3
9 1 7 0 5 8 7 6 4 6 4 8 9 4 1 0 6 3 0 3 9 0 0 3 8 9 0 5 9 4 6 5 7 1 3 9 8
Example 1
A football goalkicker has a 60% chance of kicking a goal from the sideline.
a Simulate five kicks, using a table of random numbers, to find the number of goals he
would score by:
i assigning digits to represent a goal and a miss
ii selecting five random one-digit numbers from the table
b Repeat the simulation to estimate the number of goals he would kick from 50 attempts.
c Compare your results with the expected probability.
a i
Let each digit in the table represent a kick. Let the six digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 signify
a goal, and the four digits 6, 7, 8, 9 signify a miss. Six out of ten digits or 60%
represent a goal, and four out of ten digits or 40% represent a miss.
ii Choosing any place in the table as a starting point, read off five digits representing the
five kicks at goal. If the starting point is the third row with the seventh digit in, shown
in bold, then the five digits are 5, 2, 9, 3, 1. This represents four goals and one miss.
b Starting at the same place the fifty digits are:
52931580021760049333475458640693301792630
515148268
representing 34 goals and 16 misses.
c The expected number of goals from 50 kicks would be 30; from the simulation it is 34.
Note:
Any six of the digits 09 could have been chosen to represent a goal.
Starting at a different place may give different results.
A calculator or spreadsheet could be used to generate random numbers.
If it is possible or practical to use technology to generate the numbers,
then use the technology rather than the table for questions 35.
This spreadsheet provides a random number generator.
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264
Exercise 9E
1
Repeat the question from the example starting with the first digit in the table.
The probability that a particular soccer striker will score from

a penalty is 90%. Simulate 50 kicks, using a table of random numbers,
to find the number of goals he would score by:
a i assigning digits to represent a goal and a miss
ii selecting fifty random one-digit numbers from the
table starting with the first number in the fifth row.
b Compare your results with the expected number of 45 goals.
c Repeat, starting from a different position in the table, and
compare the results.
The probability that a netball shooter will score a goal is 70%.

Simulate 50 shots at goal, using a table of random numbers, to
find the number of goals she would score by:
a i assigning digits to represent a goal and a miss
ii selecting fifty random one-digit numbers from the
table starting with the first number in the fifth row.
c Repeat, starting from a different position in the table,
and compare the results.
A plant seedling has an 80% chance of surviving the first six weeks after planting.
Simulate the survival of 100 plants using a table of random numbers by:
a i assigning digits to represent the survival and death of the seedling
ii selecting 100 random one-digit numbers from the table.
b Compare your results with the expected number of 80 survivals.
The chance of a couple having a male child or a female child are each 1--2- . Simulate the number
of boys and girls in a family of four children, using a table of random numbers, by:
a i assigning even numbers to represent boys and odd numbers to represent girls
ii selecting four one-digit numbers from the table and recording the number of boys
and girls.
b Repeat the process until you have results for ten families.
c Combine the results of the class.
d Find the mean number of boys in a family of four, using the whole class results.
e From your results, what is the probability in a family of four children that there are 0, 1,
2, 3 or 4 boys?
non-calculator activities
2.5 1.7 =
Find the value of 2820 20.
Five more than three times the sum of 4 and 6?
7
9
10
11
1
Write 8 --- as a mixed fraction?
3
35.6543 1000 =
7
Change ------ to a percentage.
20
Find 20% of $180.
1
How many minutes in 3 --- hours?
2
What is the value of (0.4)2?
Consider the 4 in the number 13 746 892. Its value would be:
A 4
B 4000
C 40 000
D 400 000
Which of the following numbers is closest to 7?

A 6.9
B 7.01
D 7.1
C 6.93
12
What fraction is 4 days of 1 fortnight? Give your answer in simplest fraction form.
13
An urn contains 9 blue and 7 red marbles. If I withdraw one marble from the urn, what is the
probability that it will be blue?
15
20.4
Estimate the value of ----------------------- giving your answer as a whole number.
2.1 + 1.8
Write the number for 200 + 3 + 0.02 + 0.004.
16
If John earns $140 for 7 hours work, how much will he receive for 5 hours work?
17
Rachel knows that 225 31 = 6975. Use this data to find the answer to Rachels question:
69 750 000 31 =
18
What is
19
What is the next number in the sequence: 1, 4, 9, 16, 25, _____ ?
20
The average of ten numbers is 3. What is the total of all ten scores?
21
5+72+1=
23
2 1
--- + --- =
3 6
14
25
36 + 4 ?
12 345 km = _____ metres.
22 Ken has finished reading 25% of a 40

page book. How many pages are left
to read?
24 What is the
length of the
side x in the
diagram?
x cm
6 cm
8 cm
265
266
Language in Mathematics
Blaise Pascal (16231662)
Blaise Pascal was born in Clermont-Ferrand, France, in
1623. Pascals father was a judge in the tax court and his
mother died when he was only three years old. He began
showing a great insight and understanding of mathematics
at a relatively young age. When he was only 16, Pascal
wrote a paper on conic sections, the study of shapes
obtained when a right circular cone is cut at various
angles.
Before he turned 20, Pascal developed a calculating machine
(patented 1647) to assist his father with tax calculations.
This machine was, in a way, the first digital calculator.
Pascal conducted experiments with his father on vacuums,
and in 1647 described the effects of air pressure on tubes of
mercury, which led to the construction of barometers.
There appears very strong evidence that the theory and study
of probability originated in the gambling halls of France where players had little idea of odds or
percentages. However, Pascal is one of the main theorists in the development of the modem theory
of probability as it is known today.
Pascal is remembered not only for his contribution to mathematics, but also for his involvement in
physics and religious philosophy. His family originally held strong Catholic beliefs, but as a result of
the illness of his father he came into contact with people with an even stricter moral approach to
religion. As a result, Pascal became extremely interested in Christian beliefs and ethics, and
produced a large number of papers on these subjects.
Despite his great contributions to mathematical and religious thinking, the one criticism of Pascal
is that he was probably too concrete a thinkersome emotional problems he appeared to analyse
like a geometry problem. However, this minor criticism is far outweighed by the enormous
contributions he made in other areas.
1
a
b
c
d
How many years did Pascal live?

Why is Pascal remembered?
What criticism is made of Pascal?
Why did Pascal become interested in Christian beliefs?
Replace the vowels in these glossary terms.

a ch __ nc __
c pr __ b __ b __ l __ ty
e pr __ d __ ct __ __ n
b __ v __ nt
d r __ nd __ m
f th __ __ r __ t __ c __ l
Rearrange these words to form a sentence:

a used estimate Relative to frequencies probability are
b are number simulate to used Random generators events
Use every third letter to find the sentence.

DFPGYRTROEWBDFAGHBBVICDLXSIZATQAYWSEEESRTTYUII
OMPLAKJTKMEMRSFGBDSEERCGHOSCMEFERTMYGOVDRWAE
SDSRFTVFACSBAQLWEERTAGHSJHTEDHWSEESNDSUCDMVG
BMIEOURQWOESFAGTHPREMIHAAQRLCISPDIEFNHJCTRRAA
ESVABNSHYEFGS
Glossary
certainty
event
experimental probability
impossible
random
simulate
chance
equally likely events
fair
prediction
random number generator
theoretical
CHECK YOUR SKILLS
Use this table for questions 1 and 2.

Three hundred car salespeople were randomly
selected and asked the country in which their car
was manufactured. The results are shown in the table.
complementary event
experimental data
favourable outcomes
probability
relative frequency
trial
Country
The relative frequency for Korea is:

42
A 42
B ---------100
Frequency
Australia
125
Japan
103
Korea
42
Germany
24
Other
1
267
42
C ---------300
Based on the table, the probability that a car will be Australian is:
125
125
100
A ---------B ---------C ---------100
300
125
A normal six-sided die is thrown once. The probability of getting a 1 is:
1
4
1
A --B --C --4
6
6
42
D ---------125
125
D ---------175
D even
268
A hat contains 7 red, 3 white and 1 blue ticket. A ticket is selected at random from the hat.
The probability that the ticket is red is:
7
1
7
A 7
B -----C -----D -----11
11
10
A raffle has 50 tickets numbered from 1 to 50. The probability that the ticket selected is the
numbers 7 or 13 is:
2
1
7
13
A -----B -----C -----D -----50
50
50
50
A poker die has faces A, K, Q, J, 10, 9, and is rolled once. The probability of getting an A or
a 10 or a 9 is:
1
2
3
1
A --B --C --D --6
6
6
3
A 52-card pack is shuffled and one card is dealt. The probability that it is a diamond is:
1
2
13
4
A -----B -----C -----D -----52
52
52
52
Which statement is true?

A There are 12 teams in our netball competition, so our probability of winning the
1
-.
competition is ----12
B A coin has been tossed 5 times and all 5 have been heads, therefore the next toss must be
tails.
C A die has six sides with the numbers 1 to 6 on them. The chance that I will get a 6 to start
a game is 1--6- .
D There are 18 horses in the Slipper Handicap horse race. Therefore, the probability that
1
-.
the favourite will win is ----18
A plant seedling has an 80% chance of surviving the first six weeks after planting. To simulate
the survival of 100 plants a table of random numbers can be used by:
A assigning the digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 to survival
B assigning the digits 1, 8, 0 to not surviving
C assigning the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 to survival
D assigning the digits 0, 1, 2 to not surviving
If you have any difficulty with these questions, refer to the examples and questions in the sections
listed in the table.
Question
Section
1, 2
37
REVIEW SET 9A
1
A tennis racquet is spun 200 times. It has rough on one side and smooth on the other.
The table shows the results.
Outcome
Frequency
Rough
166
Smooth
34
Relative frequency
Percentage

b Estimate the probability that a spin will result in rough.
2
A normal six-sided die is thrown once. Determine the probability of getting:

a a4
b a5
c an even number
d a 1 or a 6
Comment on the statement: There are 10 teams in our netball competition, so the probability
1
- .
that our team will win the competition is ----10
The probability that a particular super-12 kicker will score from a penalty is 80%. Simulate
50 kicks, using a table of random numbers, to find the number of goals he would score by:
a
i assigning digits to represent a goal and a miss
ii selecting fifty random one-digit numbers from the table starting with the first
number in the fifth row.
c Repeat, starting from a different position in the table, and compare the results.
269
270
REVIEW SET 9B
1
Kim rolled a normal six-sided die six times. She did not throw a 6. Kim concluded that the
probability of obtaining a 6 was 0. Why is she wrong? How many 6s would be expected in
six throws of the die?
A hat contains 3 red, 5 white and 9 blue tickets. A ticket is selected at random from the hat.
Determine the probability that the ticket is:
a red
b blue
c white
d not blue
A raffle has 100 tickets numbered from 1 to 100. Determine the probability that the ticket
selected is:
a number 12
b a number less than 10
c a number between 19 and 31
Comment on the statement:

Traffic lights can be red, amber or green. Therefore the probability the light is green is 1--3- .
REVIEW SET 9C
1
Four hundred car salespeople were randomly selected and asked the country in which their
car was manufactured. The results are shown in the table.
Country
Frequency
Australia
195
Japan
103
Korea
62
Germany
34
Other
Relative frequency
Perecentage

b Use this data to estimate the probability that a salesperson chosen at random will have a
car manufactured in Australia.
c Estimate the probability that the salespersons car is manufactured in Japan.
2
A poker die has faces A, K, Q, J, 10, 9 and is rolled once. Determine the probability of getting:
a aK
b a number
c an A and a J

I need a 6 to start a game. Therefore, the probability that I will start on my first roll is 1--6- .
A plant seedling has a 90% chance of surviving the first six weeks after planting. Simulate
the survival of 100 plants using a table of random numbers by:
a
i assigning digits to represent the survival and death of the seedling
ii selecting 100 random one-digit numbers from the table.
b Compare your results with the expected number of 90 survivals.
271
272
REVIEW SET 9D
1
In a year, a restaurant served 5188 bottles of wine. Of these 74 were returned because the
wine was faulty. Based on this information, estimate the probability that a bottle of wine from
this restaurant is faulty when opened.
A 52 -card pack is shuffled and one card is dealt. Determine the probability that it is:
a an ace
b a red card
c a heart
d a picture card
Matthew and Melissa each tossed a coin 100 times. Matthew counted 53 tails and so stated
53
- . Melissa counted 46 tails and stated that the probability
that the probability of tails is --------100
46
- . Who is correct? Explain.
of tails is --------100

There are 24 horses in the Slipper handicap horse race. Therefore, the probability that the
1
- .
favourite will win is ----24

CH 09

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LEY_bk9_09_2ndpp Page 247 Wednesday, January 12, 2005 11:16 AM

Syllabus reference NS5.1.3

LEY_bk9_09_2ndpp Page 248 Wednesday, January 12, 2005 11:16 AM

Probability (Chapter 9) Syllabus reference NS5.1.3

The relative frequency for rough is:

Based on the table, the probability

A 52 card pack is shuffled and one card is

Which statement is true?

A normal six-sided die is thrown once.

B A coin has been tossed 8 times and all

A hat contains 1 red, 5 white and 7 blue

D There are 24 horses in the Slipper

A netball shooter has a 60% chance of

LEY_bk9_09_2ndpp Page 249 Wednesday, January 12, 2005 11:16 AM

Probability (Chapter 9) Syllabus reference NS5.1.3

a Toss a coin 50 times and complete this table.

Toss the coin another 50 times and complete a second table.

LEY_bk9_09_2ndpp Page 250 Wednesday, January 12, 2005 11:16 AM

Probability (Chapter 9) Syllabus reference NS5.1.3

When a die is thrown there are six equally likely outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6.

b How many of each

Collect statements involving the use of chance language in the media.

Organise these statements from most likely to least likely to occur.

Assign each event with a probability between 0 and 1.

Comment on the statements.

A. THEORETICAL PROBABILITY VERSUS

LEY_bk9_09_2ndpp Page 251 Wednesday, January 12, 2005 11:16 AM

Probability (Chapter 9) Syllabus reference NS5.1.3

a Complete the table.

b P(lands on side) = 63%

a Copy and complete the table.

a Copy and complete the table.

LEY_bk9_09_2ndpp Page 252 Wednesday, January 12, 2005 11:16 AM

Probability (Chapter 9) Syllabus reference NS5.1.3

LEY_bk9_09_2ndpp Page 253 Wednesday, January 12, 2005 11:16 AM

Probability (Chapter 9) Syllabus reference NS5.1.3

List the sample space.

a The five numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 comprise the sample space n = 5.

LEY_bk9_09_2ndpp Page 254 Wednesday, January 12, 2005 11:16 AM

Probability (Chapter 9) Syllabus reference NS5.1.3

List the sample space for:

A fair die is rolled. Determine the probability of getting:

A poker die has faces A, K, Q, J, 10 and 9, and is rolled once.

A symmetrical octahedral (8-sided) die has numbers 1 to 8 marked on its faces.

LEY_bk9_09_2ndpp Page 255 Wednesday, January 12, 2005 11:16 AM

Probability (Chapter 9) Syllabus reference NS5.1.3

Many games require a 6 to start, when rolling a normal die.

LEY_bk9_09_2ndpp Page 256 Wednesday, January 12, 2005 11:16 AM

Probability (Chapter 9) Syllabus reference NS5.1.3

Using the illustration

Now toss two dice 200 times and

Pool as much data as you can

LEY_bk9_09_2ndpp Page 257 Wednesday, January 12, 2005 11:16 AM

Probability (Chapter 9) Syllabus reference NS5.1.3

LEY_bk9_09_2ndpp Page 258 Wednesday, January 12, 2005 11:16 AM

Probability (Chapter 9) Syllabus reference NS5.1.3

Make eight different spinners for, say, x = 1 cm, 2 cm,

From your graph estimate:

D. EQUALLY LIKELY EVENTS

LEY_bk9_09_2ndpp Page 259 Wednesday, January 12, 2005 11:16 AM

Probability (Chapter 9) Syllabus reference NS5.1.3

Comment on these statements: