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Introduction

1.1

CLIMATE CHANGE

limate change in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007

usage refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using
statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and
that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any
change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of
human activity. This usage differs from that in the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change, where climate change refers to a change of climate
that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition
of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periods.

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate


Change (2007) dispelled many uncertainties about climate change. Warming of the
climate system is now unequivocal. It is now clear that global warming is mostly
due to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases (mostly Carbon dioxide). Over the
last century, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide increased from a preindustrial value of 278 parts per million to 379 parts per million in 2005, and the
average global temperature rose by 0.74C. According to scientists, this is the
largest and fastest warming trend that they have been able to discern in the history of
the Earth. An increasing rate of warming has particularly taken place over the last 25
years, and 11 of the 12 warmest years on record have occurred in the past 12 years.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report gives detailed projections
for the 21st century and these show that global warming will continue and

Introduction

accelerate. The best estimates indicate that the Earth could warm by 3C by 2100.
The major impacts and threats of climate change will be widespread.

As a result of global warming, the type, frequency and intensity of extreme


events, such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons), floods,
droughts and heavy precipitation events, are expected to rise even with relatively
small average temperature increases. Changes in some types of extreme events have
already been observed, for example, increases in the frequency and intensity of heat
waves and heavy precipitation events.

Ultimately, it will have effects on socio-economic and related sectors,


including water resources, agriculture and food security, human health, terrestrial
ecosystems and biodiversity and coastal zones. Changes in rainfall pattern are likely
to lead to severe water shortages and/or flooding. Melting of glaciers can cause
flooding and soil erosion. Rising temperatures will cause shifts in crop growing
seasons which affects food security and changes in the distribution of disease
vectors putting more people at risk from diseases such as malaria and dengue fever.

THEORIES OF CLIMATIC CHANGE


The role of insolation is fundamental in weather and climatic processes.
Hence most climate change theories deal with possible effects of alterations in the
earths energy budget.
The simplest theory states that any change in the kind and amount of energy
emitted from the sun causes changes. Increased solar radiation warms the atmosphere
and resulted in events such as the glacial melting.

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Some theories based on a examining the number of sunspots during more


than two centuries reveals their cycle of about 11.3 years, but the period has been as
short as 9 years and as long as 16. Multiples of the 11-year cycle and secondary
cycles having lengths of 35 years, 80 years and other periods have also been
suggested. Based on these some correlations between sunspot numbers and weather
have been established for specific regions only. Changes in the heat budget, the
general circulation and precipitation patterns on the earth can be seen because of the
combined effect of sunspot activity and suns rotation and the solar wind. Paleoclimatologists have found correlations between earth magnetism and climatic
changes, especially those associated with ice ages and the extinction of species in
the fossil record as the earths magnetic field is known to be affected by the
emissions of charged protons by solar flares during maximum sunspot periods.
There can be other possible causes of changeable insolation even if the
output from the sun is considered constant. Astronomical theories consider five
principal effects.
1.

Changes in the angle which the earth makes with the plane of the ecliptic.
The tilt angle varies slowly between 22.1o and 24.5 o during a cycle of about
41,000 years, presumably affecting the seasons, temperature distribution and
the general circulation.

2.

Changes in the eccentricity of the earths orbit-period 96,000 years.


Resulting variations in the mean distance from earth to sun could affect
temperatures on earth.

3.

Precession of the equinoxes, the regular change in the time when the earth is
a given distance from the sun. At present the earth is closest to the sun in the

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Northern Hemisphere winter (about 3 January). About 10,500 years ago the
Northern Hemisphere winter came at a time of year when the earth was
farthest from the sun. Other things being equal (which they never are),
winters should have been colder and summers warmer than they are now. In
the Southern Hemisphere the reverse applies.
4.

Shifting of the earth on its polar axis. This hypothesis, suggested by Robert
Hooke in 1686 to explain tropical fossils in England, has been abandoned by
most climatologists in favor of theories based on plate tectonics and
continental drift, which also could account for apparent polar wandering.

5.

Changes in the rate of the earths rotation on its axis, affecting the diurnal
heat budget and ultimately world climates (Critchfield, 2012).

Insolation gets affected by the processes of absorption, reflection and


scattering in the outer limits of the atmosphere. Its possible causes are known to be
showers of meteoric dust and time to time increase of volcanic ash. Ash layers in
Antarctic ice show a period of intense volcanic activity from about 30,000 to 17,000
year ago, during which temperatures decreased by about 3 oC. In the modern era the
eruption of Mount Tambora on the Indonesian Island of Sumbawa in 1815 ejected
an estimated 150 km3 of ash into the atmosphere. The following year was known as
the year without a summer in the United States and Europe. Massive eruptions of
other volcanoes in the twentieth century (Katmai, 1912; Agung, 1963; Taal, 1965;
Mayon and Fernandina, 1968) force ash into the stratosphere. Measurements and
estimates of direct solar radiation indicate a reduction by 10 to 20 percent for several
months following the Katmai eruption and an accompanying decrease of a few

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tenths of a degree in mean air temperatures. Effects of such eruptions are felt in local
climates deeply but their global climatic impacts were undetectable.

Impact of culture too can be felt on climate change, as pollution created by


cities and industries, burning of vegetation along with the solid particles resulting
from wind erosion contribute in local climatic changes.

Carbon dioxide and water vapor selectively absorb part of the long wave
terrestrial radiation and a greenhouse effect is created by transmitting short-wave
radiation. An increase of CO2 is thought to produce slightly higher surface
temperatures and it has been proposed as a cause of the warming trend from about
1885 to 1940. Variations in the amount and height of maximum ozone concentration
in the upper atmosphere might also affect air temperatures (Critchfield, 2012).
During volcanic eruptions Sulphur dioxide and chlorine are also emitted which can
react chemically and reduce ozone. Hence, their increase would lead to a small rise
in surface temperatures; a decrease would tend to produce surface cooling.

Continental drift during past geologic eras witnessed land masses shifting to
different latitudinal positions. Geophysicists since the middle of the twentieth
century support crustal movements as explanations of climatic change by giving
refined plate tectonics theory.

The changes in the heat budget or changes in the circulation patterns of the
atmosphere and oceans etc can be regarded as causes of climatic change but they
cannot be solely held responsible for it. As any change in these motion systems are
themselves subject to climatic effects.

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INDIAN SCENARIO
India will also be severely impacted by climate change as the Indian economic
ties to natural resources and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water and
forestry. India may face a major threat and require serious adaptive capacity to
combat climate change. Many studies have underscored the nations vulnerability to
climate change. With changes in key climate variables, namely temperature,
precipitation and humidity, crucial sectors like agriculture and rural development are
likely to be affected in a major way. Impacts are already being seen in unprecedented
heat waves, cyclones, floods, salinisation of the coastline and effects on agriculture,
fisheries and health.

The future impacts of climate change, identified by the Government of


Indias National Communications in 2004 include:

Decreased snow cover, affecting snow-fed and glacial systems such as the
Ganges and Bramhaputra. 70% of the summer flow of the Ganges comes
from melt water

Erratic monsoon with serious effects on rain-fed agriculture, peninsular


rivers, water and power supply

Drop in wheat production by 4-5 million tones, with even a 1C rise in


temperature

Rising sea levels causing displacement along one of the most densely
populated coastlines in the world, threatened freshwater sources and
mangrove ecosystems

Increased frequency and intensity of floods. Increased vulnerability of people


in coastal, arid and semi-arid zones of the country

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Studies indicate that over 50% of Indias forests are likely to experience shift
in forest types, adversely impacting associated biodiversity, regional climate
dynamics as well as livelihoods based on forest products.

Vulnerability to extreme events would affect arid and semi-arid zones, of


which nearly two-thirds are drought-prone. Large areas in Rajasthan, Andhra
Pradesh, Gujarat and Maharashtra and comparatively small areas in
Karnataka, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, West Bengal, and
Uttar Pradesh are frequented by drought. About 40 million hectares of land is
flood-prone, including most of the river basins in the north and the northeastern belt affecting about 30 million people on an average each year.

The climate change predicted in the Third Assessment Report of


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001, says that the warming will be
higher during the winters as compared to the summer season. Its predictions of
climate change in South Asia are given in Table-1.

Table 1- Predictions of Climate Change in South Asia


2020s

2050s

2080s

Parameters
Annual Winter Summer Annual Winter Summer Annual Winter Summer
Temperature
Change (0C)

1.36

1.62

1.13

2.69

3.25

2.19

3.84

4.52

3.20

Precipitation
Change (%)

2.9

2.7

2.5

6.8

-2.1

6.6

11.0

5.3

7.9

Source: Third Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001

Introduction

EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES


Although the climate change debate is often centered on temperature, water
is what will determine whether a community (a village, city, or region) or ecosystem
can survive. Water is the medium through which climate change impacts are being
felt and will be experienced. Climate change will ultimately come down to changes in
water timing (when water is delivered seasonality, monsoon, etc.), quantity (how
much water is available floods and droughts), and quality (how well the water is
suited for consumption or use). That means that water has become an important
potential platform upon which to shape sustainable climate change solutions.

Water managers, farmers, and other stakeholders are used to dealing with
seasonal and yearly variation, but climate change will shift weather and water
patterns with greater frequency and to greater extremes. Future situations will be
substantially less manageable and less predictable, exacerbating underlying stresses
and presenting new risks. Increased drought and flood recurrence and duration, higher
variability of precipitation patterns, increased cyclone intensity, changing trends in
snowpack and generally accelerating rates of glacier melt will be experienced.

This alteration (shifts in timing and averages) and intensification (increasing


number and severity of extreme events) of the hydrological cycle will change
seasonality and water temperatures and alterations in precipitation patterns will
affect water quality. Dissolved oxygen levels, concentration of pollutants and levels
of toxic algae and sedimentation will all change, which mean impacts on aquatic
species that will not only have health and sustenance implications but also economic
consequences.

Introduction

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CONTEXT OF RAJASTHAN


Rajasthan is the largest state in the country, covers about 3, 42,000 square
kilometers area, and is further divided into 33 districts, see Map-1. It stretches in two
of India's major physiographic divisions, namely the Great Plains (Indian Desert)
and the Central Highlands. The Aravalli range of hills intersects the state diagonally
from southwest to northeast, extending right up to Delhi. While the area east of the
Aravalli falls in the northern part of the Central Highlands. The Aravalli forms the
Watershed line between catchment streams flowing into Arabian Sea and Bay of
Bengal respectively. It has a steep but discontinuous front to the Thar plains in the
west and a relatively gentle slope to the alluvial basins in the north and the east. The
central part of Aravalli consist of an important basin of interior drainage is gifted
with Sambhar lake. This area is full of sand hills and typical landscape with several
low depressions.

The climate of Rajasthan on the west of the Aravalli like other desert and semidesert regions, gets rapidly heated during the day and cool down quickly after dusk,
variations of as much as 220C is noted in the maximum and minimum temperature. In
the east and south of Aravallis there is considerable variation in the temperature and
amount of rainfall. Climatically, Rajasthan is the driest State in the country.

Rainfall is the only source of water in the State, which is received from south
west monsoon which usually arrives by the middle of June and continues with
intervening breaks till almost September end. The annual rainfall varies from less
than 100 mm to 1000 mm. As one moves from southwest to northeast, the rainfall
goes on decreasing. It is highest on the Aravalli near Mr. Abu where it exceeds 1000

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MAP - 1

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11

millimeter. The average rainfall in north-western parts of Jaisalmer district ranges


between 1 to 100 millimeter while in Banswara, Chittorgarh and Jhalawar districts it
varies between 901 to 1000 millimeter The state has about 528 millimeter average
rainfall. Except for the Chambal, the 13 other rivers of the state are non-perennial.

CLIMATIC VULNERABILITY
Vulnerability in the context of Climate Change is defined as, the degree to
which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse effects of
climate change, including climate variability and extremes.
In the context of Rajasthan, nearly 61% of the geographical area falls under
arid/ semi arid zone. The entire State receives scanty rainfall. Thar Desert in western
Rajasthan is characterized by low and erratic rainfall, high air and soil temperature,
intense solar radiation and high wind velocity. Context-specific interactions of these
factors give rise to frequent droughts and famines.

Various studies show that Rajasthan is likely to suffer further water shortage
due to overall reduction in rainfall. In addition, the State has the maximum
vulnerability and lowest adaptive capacity to climate change challenges. Rajasthan
has the maximum probability of occurrence of drought. Condition may deteriorate in
terms of severity of droughts in Rajasthan. Even 1% increase in temperature from
base data could result in an increase in evapo-transpiration. All the more, the quality
and quantity of ground water and surface water resources in Rajasthan has
deteriorated rapidly in last two decades.

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Changes in the climate will have profound effect on hydrological cycle viz.
precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. Preliminary assessments as part
of the Second National Communication (NATCOM) of India to be submitted to the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) indicates
that river Luni along with the west flowing rivers Kutch and Saurastra are likely to
face acute water stress conditions, while the river basins of Mahi and Sabarmati are
likely to experience constant water shortage.

Other vulnerability issue is widespread land degradation which is a persistent


challenge in Rajasthan. The processes leading to land degradation are generally
triggered by increasing demand for food from the growing population, which results
in over exploitation of natural resources. Human activities such as firewood cutting in
rural areas and around main cities, deforestation for commercial use, urbanization and
industrialization, over taxed rangeland carrying capacity and overgrazing by everexpanding herds, cultivation in ecologically marginal areas and agricultural, low level
of agricultural technology, reduced fallow time etc., lead to various land degradation
process, including increasing soil degradation through salinisation, flooding, drought
water logging etc. These processes in turn reduce agricultural productivity.

With changes in climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation,


increased incidence of droughts and intensification of water scarce conditions could
impact agricultural production drastically. The state is primarily rain-fed; with bulk
of rainfall (nearly 90%) being received during the monsoon season which is for a
short period and often witnesses a late onset and early withdrawal as compared to
other states. The state of Rajasthan faces many pressures that directly impact the
agricultural sector like high population growth rate, increased use of fertilizers due

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to increased production demand, increased pressure on canals, wells and tube wells
for irrigation, etc.

Hence the impacts will be most felt on the vulnerable and poor sections of
the society, therefore vulnerability assessment and adaptation measures must be
taken up in the climate sensitive socio-economic sectors like water and agriculture.

ADAPTATION STRATEGY
Adaptation is a process through which societies make themselves more able
to cope with an uncertain future. Adapting to climate change entails taking the right
measures to reduce the negative effects of climate change (or exploit the positive
ones) by making the appropriate adjustments and changes. There are many options
and opportunities to adapt ranging from technological options such as rainwater
harvesting, drought management, Integrated Water Resources Management strategy
Options to enhance water availability by combining new infrastructure with other
supply-oriented measures such as desalination, re-use and water marketing, Artificial
recharge of groundwater along with policy to regulate groundwater utilization etc.
are also feasible options.

Similarly, specific areas of intervention in the field of agriculture may include


improvement in agro-extension services, crop insurance, improvement in reclamation
of saline/alkaline soils and efficient irrigation practices. Some long-term adaptations
include changes in sowing dates, crop type and cropping pattern depending on the
agro-climatic conditions to improve crop yields under new climatic conditions,
application of new technologies, new land management techniques and water use
efficiency related techniques including judicious use of water for different crops etc.

Introduction

1.2

14

REVIEW OF LITERATURE
The review covers books, research articles, reports and popular articles on

the research topic. The main topics covered in the review are: Climate Change,
Vulnerability, Adaptation and Extreme Events.

CLIMATE CHANGE
In his article Rao (1996) identified three locations viz., Ganganagar, Bikaner
and Jaisalmer located along the irrigated tract of the Indira Gandhi Canal to assess
the impact of irrigation in the arid Rajasthan which is seen from the micro-climatic
and vegetation changes that occurred it this region due to the long term climatic
changes. Here the trends in annual rainfall (during 1926 to 1993) and air temperatures
(during 1950 to 1993) are used for analysis. The findings suggest that climatic
droughts prevailed in Ganganagar once in every five years, at Bikaner once in every
three years and at Jaisalmer once in every four years. The annual rainfalls trend
showed an overall increase in Ganganagar, decrease in Bikaner and same trend in
Jaisalmer. The air temperatures at all the three locations showed a general decreasing
trend. It is also observed that the amount of canal water that is applied can influence
atmospheric humidity, but it is not known how far this humidity can enhance
precipitation.

In a report by Easterling et al. (2004) the concepts of vulnerability and


adaptation in the context of climate change is explained. It illustrates selected
successes and failures of reactive adaptation to analogous changes in environmental
or socioeconomic conditions, and it explores the challenges and potential benefits of
deliberately stoking the nations adaptive capacity with proactive policies in

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anticipation of climate change. The report also sites a few case studies relating to
Crop Translocation of Winter Wheat in the United States; Resource Substitution in
Response to Scarcity by Dry land for Irrigated Agriculture in the Great Plains and
Sea Level Rise Analogue showing The Rising Great Salt Lake. The case study of
translocation of crops demonstrates that the agricultural sector can expand the range
of certain crops to include climates that are as different as the levels of climate
change projected to occur over the next few decades. The Great Plains example
shows that adaptations can happen in response to resources becoming limited. The
Great Salt Lake example shows that society can, to some degree, address immediate
and vital problems brought about by a changing climate.

The report also suggests the methods of reactive and proactive adaptation
techniques. It concludes that adaptation and mitigation are necessary and
complementary for a comprehensive and coordinated strategy that addresses the
problem of global climate change but the regions and people will suffer some losses
which are unavoidable.

Similarly, an article by Kumar (2004) presents a detailed analysis of the


association of agricultural output with monsoon rainfall where two indicators of El
Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Sea Surface temperatures
(SST) are measured. The study considers aggregate food grains, cereals, pulses and
oilseeds, rice, wheat, sorghum, groundnut and sugarcane by season at national and
for particular regions within India. The study uses all-India and state-level agricultural
statistics (area, production and yield) available from 194950 to 199798 for
individual crops (rice, wheat, sorghum, groundnut, oilseeds and sugarcane) and for

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combined cereals, pulses and food grains. The rainfall pattern data from 1871 to
1991 was studied. In the findings we see the kharif growing season coincides with
the south-west monsoon therefore here the correlation between monsoon and crops
is particularly strong. While analyzing crop-climate association on a regional scale
we see that since production varies from one region to another within India, we used
monsoon rainfall data from meteorological subdivisions to study local scale climate
influences on crop production kharif food grains, kharif and rabi rice, total wheat,
kharif sorghum, and kharif groundnut production in individual states. Crops
grown in both the (kharif ) monsoon (except sorghum) and the (rabi) post-monsoon
seasons (except rice and sorghum) respond significantly to the summer monsoon All
the kharif crops except sorghum are strongly associated with ENSO conditions.
However, none of the rabi crop indices showed this relationship the significant
correlations with the Indian Ocean SST anomalies suggest that kharif crop production
indices (except sorghum) have some predictability at a long lead time. Although rabi
groundnut, oilseed and sorghum production indices are related to the Indian Ocean
SST anomalies, such a relationship for annual total production is evident only for
rice, groundnut, oilseeds and food grains.

The results of this study provide evidence that crop response to monsoon
rainfall has some predictability, even before the start of the growing season. This
type of analysis, at a finer spatial scale, could provide useful information for
targeting interventions.

Burroughs (2005) in his book studies climate with anthropological,


archeological and historical perspective. The chapters - The Climate Of The Past

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100000 Years, The Evolutionary Implications Of Living With The Ice Age,
Emerging From The Ice Age Our Climatic Inheritance and The Future are
especially useful. They reviews the aspects of our physiological, intellectual
development and social behavior that have been influenced by climatic factors and
how the features of our lives- diet, health and relation with the nature are the product
of the climate that evolved. The book looks into the past only to gain knowledge for
the future; how man can learn to adapt effectively by changing some of his habits.
Effect of climate on human history can be seen as the book is supported by very
scientifically analysed data. The author also suggests that how IPCC predictions can
be set against what happened during the last ice-age and in the Holocene and in
particular when the climate shifted radically in between those two periods.

A paper by Gupta (2005) projects the future emission scenario of India


highlighting the extent of Indias vulnerability to climate change and also critically
analyses the initiatives undertaken in India to mitigate greenhouse gas emission. The
author expresses concern that India is vulnerable to climate change impacts, as a
vast population depends on climate sensitive sectors like agriculture, forestry and
fishery for livelihood and increase in the events of flood and drought would pose a
threat to food-security and livelihood. The paper mentions agriculture and food
security, forestry, coastal areas and human health as the areas of concern. Domestic
efforts to mitigate green house gas emissions can be done in the fields of Pollution
Control, Energy Conservation and Energy Efficiency; Forestry; by institutionalizing
climate change research; regulating population growth and urban agglomeration;
promotion of renewable sources of energy; participating in the global declarations.

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The author suggests that India should be alert, active and assertive in its global
participation and enhance its adaptive capacity.

Rathore et al. (2006) in an article mention the observations that have been
made since the beginning of 21 st century, reporting that changes have been observed
in surface temperature, rainfall, evaporation and extreme events, global mean sea
level has risen etc. these observations have been made in India as well. The writers
stress that warmer climates accelerated the hydrological cycle, which ultimately
affect the groundwater level negatively. The paper attempts to study the possible
impacts of climate change on surface and groundwater resources in India. It studies
the relation between rainfall, food production, population and freshwater needs.
Rivers, snow, ice and glaciers have been while talking about the surface water
resources. Impacts of events of flood and drought too have taken into consideration
while studying the surface water resources. It is mentioned that the ground water has
been exploited unmindfully and has become the main provider to meet the rising
need in the domestic, industrial and agricultural sectors, hence it is declining rapidly.

Projections have been made regarding climate change during the next century
over India and the impact they would have on water resources. It has also been
discussed that ground water management in India has become an important point
now but it is still in a very initial stage. The paper advocates that there should be an
increase in the studies on changing climatic patterns which impact the hydrological
cycle and which are leading to depletion of water resources.

Adger et al. (2009) considered that the previous analysis about adaptation
have been done from a narrow stand point predominantly- ecological, physical,

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economic or technical. Here they have articulated four prepositions around ethics,
knowledge, risk and culture as these will open up the limits of adaptation to climate
change. These limits are endogenous and emerge from inside the society.

These four prepositions are evaluated by four statements and it is suggested


that these elements inherit in any society contribute to limiting the successful
adaptive response of society. The role of ethics can have both a positive impact;
greater knowledge of future impact and the risk it can pose leads to early adaptation;
undervaluing of cultures limits the range of adaptation actions. The ability to adapt
depends on availability of technology, capacity of learning and their ethical and
cultural backgrounds.

Helm (2009) divided his book in twenty-two chapters contributed by various


authors. The chapters cover various topics like climate change policy: why so little
has been achieved?; The global deal on climate change; Climate treaties and the
imperatives of enforcement; The implications of rapid development for emission and
climate change mitigation; The behavioural economics of climate change; climate
change and Africa; India and climate change mitigation; EU climate change policy:
a Critique; climate change mitigation from renewable energy: its contribution and
cost; The global climate change regime : a defense. The book examines the economies
of climate change and the incentives of the main players i.e. United States of
America, China and European Union and considers the policies that governments can
put in place to reduce greenhouse gas emission and ultimately shift our economies
onto a low-carbon path. It looks into the international framework for a climate
change agreement which is up for review as the initial Kyoto Protocol comes to an

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end in 2012. In this regards itself it also deals how there is much enthusiasm from
political and environmental groups but the underlying economics and politics remain
highly controversial.

The book by Kumar (2009) focuses on two aspects of global environmental


change: Groundwater and depletion of stratospheric ozone. It has chapters dealing
with the concept of Global Warming, its causes; Relation of climate change and
groundwater; Population Growth; Current Sea Level Rise; Environmental Pollution
and ground water; Protection of Ozone Layer; and, Greenhouse effect. Out of these
the chapter highlighting the relation of climate change and Ground water is crucial.
The author in the chapter points out to the importance of glaciers as an important
indicator of climate change. Glacial erosional features, landforms products and
deposits, and types of glaciers, formation of glacial ice, changes in glacier size and
movement of glaciers have been used as an indicator. The author includes effect of
carbon dioxide, plate tectonics, solar variation, orbital variations, volcanism, human
influences, fossil fuels, aerosols, cement manufacture, land use and livestock as an
indicator of climate change. The author indicates that interplay of the above factors
is very crucial. The book also highlights that modification of climate change event
can be done through geo-engineering techniques like - Solar radiation management
by albedo modification, green house gases remediation by carbon sequestration and
hydrological geo-engineering.

The paper by Billett (2010) investigates the role of Indian media in shaping
the opinion of the public regarding the environmental issue of climate change. The
investigation done for the study is based on the coverage through main articles only

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excluding opinion and editorial pieces on the climate change issue between January
2002 and June 2007 in the four major English dalies, namely The times of India, The
Hindu, Hindustan Times and The Indian Express; which present climate change in a
very scientific framework as compared to western nations. The methodology followed
a discourse analysis and used the outputs of the Indian discourse i.e. the journalists,
editors and free-lance writers. Here, four main climate change themes were used:
science, impacts, responsibility, action.

It is pointed out that the general belief in media is that the anthropogenic
causes of the problem are only the industrial elite and also highlights the NorthSouth Divide. The press also placed the responsibility and demand for action, having
located the threats of climate change within the country. Here, the study revealed that
on the issue of Climate Politics most of the readers believe that the problem was a
mess created by developed countries. But still India sees climate change as its
responsibility.

Reddy (2009) in his book deals with an array of issues relating to energy
efficiency, development and environment. Some of the chapters are- Climate debate;
Win-win climate policy; Fundamentals of energy efficiency; The benefits and
drawbacks of energy efficiency; Commercializing clean energy technologies; Financing
energy efficiency in transition economies; The role of institutions in promoting
energy efficiency. The chapter dealing with Climate debate gives a brief history of
the policies related to changing climate; it also presents the two views about climate
change. One believing that climate issue is a hoax inflated by media and nothing
special is required to be done. Whereas the other believes that there is enough

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evidence to prove that CC is happening in the world and majorly caused due to
anthropogenic activities. The expansion of scientific knowledge is unlikely to end
the debate as each side will get more data to confirm their cases. Regardless of which
side is right the points raised by both are valuable. The real problem is not scientific
controversy but the way in which science is used by economic and political interests
and the risk of scientists becoming a pawn in a high stake political game. The
chapter - Win-win Climate Policy discusses that in 1992 UNFCCC encouraged the
use of cost effective mechanism for tackling climate change. This principle was
reaffirmed by the Kyoto Protocol. The economic win-win is achieved when a
problem is mitigated at negative net economic cost, thus leading to a win for
problem solving and a win for the economy.

The book provides a view on integrating climate policies with development


priorities. Given the uncertainties about the cost of reducing green house gas the best
way to proceed may be through the introduction of more flexibility into international
trading programs for carbon credits.

The book by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) Working
Group (2009) is a report that looks if there are any security implications of climate
change for India. The Working Group finds out that climate change is a non-traditional
security threat as its impact on human security is immense. Climate change can lead
to loss in biodiversity, breakdown of ecosystems which will have a direct negative
impact on human society which is tightly linked with national security. The chapters
include climate change and Security: Exploring the link; Key Vulnerabilities due to
climate change; climate change and Disasters; Climate change and Migration; Energy

Introduction

23

and climate change; Economics and Adaptation to climate change; Impact on Indias
Bilateral Relations with neighbouring countries; Impact on war-fighting capability
of the Indian Military; Climate change: Indias Negotiating position. Three chapters
in particular relate to my research topic namely, Key Vulnerabilities due to Climate
Change, Climate Change and Disasters and Economics and Adaptation to Climate
Change. The chapters analyze the observed changes in the climate and projected
Climate Change in Indian context and the potential risks and sectoral impacts on
India could face in the next few decades. They suggest that natural disasters are
increasing in terms of frequency, intensity, scope and destructive capacity. These
disasters are linked to Climate Change through short term natural variability,
manifesting in extreme weather conditions such cyclones, storms, floods, droughts,
heat waves, wind storms, and other natural hazards for potential for catastrophic loss
of human lives, damage to infrastructure and environment. This chapter analyses the
impact of Climate Change on the risk of natural hazards in India and proposes
preparedness strategies and emergent policy imperatives. The book also sets up a link
between Climate Change, human security and vulnerability. The chapter establishes
a close relationship between Climate Change and socio-economic concerns for
development. It concludes that climate policy and international negotiations require
a governance framework that is under pinned by the rationale that populations in the
developing world will need to move up the energy ladder in improving basic
standards of living.

The book concludes that the consequences of climate change for a developing
country like India will be serious under any scenario and human security will be
affected. India should use climate change as an opportunity to make socio-economic

Introduction

24

development more sustainable. For the same The National Action Plan of climate
change is considered a good beginning, but its time-bound implementation needs to
be ensured.

The report by Singh et al. (2010) of Rajasthan State Pollution Control Board
highlights the fact that Rajasthan is a climate sensitive state, having maximum
vulnerability and lowest adaptive capacity. Due to this reason the adaptation strategies
here become inevitable. There is an emphasis on the science-based policy making.
The report mentions policies relating to water, dry lands, forests, agro-forestry, urbanforests, dune restoration, biodiversity and mine-spoil management in Rajasthan.
A brief review of the available literature and an annotated bibliography of
published research on climate change impacts, mitigation and adaptation are
provided in order to facilitate the identification of policy options in Rajasthan.

ADAPTATION
Gowd et al. (1998) in the article presented a systematic study conducted of
the various landforms and geomorphic units that have been carried out in the
Peddavanka watershed area comprising a catchment area of 298 sq. km. in the
Anantapur district of Andra Pradesh. Hydro-geomorphology and lineament studies
have been carried in the region. Related maps are prepared based on the visual
interpretation of the satellite data of IRS-1B and LISS-II on 1:50,000 scale.

The authors suggest that such maps prepared with the use of satellite imagery
are very useful in identifying favorable zones for groundwater. Such hydrogeomorphologic maps revels that the shallow groundwater occurrences are controlled

Introduction

25

by geo-morphological features whereas faults/fractures control the yield of


groundwater at intermediate depth.

Noss (2001) talks about forest management on which the Kyoto Protocol is
silent on and argues that if we study how forests address climate change and other
stresses under natural conditions then even we might be able to maintain, restore or
mimic these processes of adjustments. Sometimes the changes become progressively
faster, more intense, or broader in extent that a global mass extinction becomes
probable. The Conservationists have to keep the rates, scales, and intensities of
change in ecosystems within the historic range of variability and they must also
develop strategies to mitigate the effects of inevitable changes that fall outside the
historic range of variability.

Minimizing extinction during climate change requires that species be given


opportunities to adapt. Migration appears to have been the primary way species
responded to past climate changes but some species may adapt to climate change by
in situ evolution. The author identifies that climate change is not the only threat to
forests but adds one more layer of stress to species and ecosystems already suffering
from poor land-use practices. To protect forests from the harmful effects of climate
change, we must first mitigate the proximate threats of habitat destruction,
fragmentation, and degradation and for the same some recommendations are also
given like providing buffer zones, avoid fragmentations, practice low intensity
forestry and protect against fires. The author emphasizes that increased emphasis
must be placed on actions such as protecting climatic refugia and providing habitat
connectivity parallel to environmental gradients for good forest management during

Introduction

26

changing climate. He has also highlighted some points on which he suggests that
further research is required.

The report by Tideman (2004) describes how people of semi-arid Gujarat


and Rajasthan have evolved their coping strategies with migration and income
diversifications are the key characteristics and the others being easy flow of relevant
information, financial support and increase of milk production as a substitute for
crops. The project under which this report is generated believes that effective
watershed management plays an important role in enhancing the coping and adaptive
ability of people against drought. So the status of two watersheds, one in GujaratAmbaji Watershed (Danta, Banaskantha) and the other in Rajasthan-Jaulna
Watershed (Niwai, Tonk) have been discussed in this report. The report also reviews
the possible impact of climate change on India resulting due to the changing pattern
of monsoon and fluctuation in the groundwater level and their impacts which make
the drought coping strategies even more difficult.

The paper by Das et al. (2005) presents a case study of Tonk district
(Rajasthan) that focuses on the traditional adaptation practices used by the vulnerable
communities in this drought prone area. This place is the best decision ground to
formulate any policy and financial intervention. Tonk has been chosen as the
representative survey area and the situation post the worst drought of 2002 is studied.
It was experienced that occurrences of drought has increased. The traditional
adaptation practices followed were not sowing more water demanding crops like
wheat and cotton, growing crops only for self consumption and those too requiring
minimum water like mustard, chana, cumin seeds. There is also provision for storing

Introduction

27

enough fodder for animals and food grains for self consumption. To obtain water in
a scarce situation generally wells are deepened, new ponds are dug and construction
of anicuts is seen. With the help of a local NGO a medicinal plant named Sona
Mukhi is widely grown which earns them some revenue which is utilized in drought
period. Organic manure is also promoted- vermi-compost, fodder crops are grown
for both domestic and market consumption. The article also mentions the role of
government by programs like Food-for-Work Program, District Poverty Initiative
Project and self-help groups, international funding agencies. The authors have made
some recommendations regarding drought adaptation techniques like efficient
resource management, planning to be linked with developmental activities, efficient
monitoring of programs and enhancement of awareness.

The paper by The Energy and Resources Institute (2006) discusses ways
of mainstreaming adaptation considerations into sustainable development efforts by
establishing a link between adaptation to climate change and sustainable development.
The paper tries to look into the fact that what specific climate change impacts and
measures will affect development efforts and how. After understanding the link better
integrated policies can be formulated. To achieve the desired goal the paper includes
a discussion on the concepts of Vulnerability and Adaptation, their assessment
criterion and why focusing on them is important. It is seen that climate change and
sustainable development interact in a circular fashion. As the human induced climatic
changes affect the sustainable development and the developmental techniques affect
the human factors like land-use change. The measures for integration should be done
on all local, sectoral, national and global levels. Particular significance should be
given to developing nations as they are considered more vulnerable.

Introduction

28

Schipper (2007) in the paper discusses results of the research aimed at


exploring the international discourse on adaptation to the climate change and the
meaning of adaptation to climate change in the context of development. The author
also holds the view that human-induced global climate change is already occurring
and its effects will continue for years to come. Adaptation to climate change is
inevitable and it can either be deliberate or automatic. But some solutions may only
be short term as they are limited by their own lack of flexibility whereas effective
adaptation must have a long term goal. The agenda of adaptation has been the main
focus of United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the
disaster risk reduction community and development agencies (including World
Bank). The article emphasizes that adaptation is a process for reducing impacts not
vulnerability and both adaptation and development play a role in responding to risks.
So links are being drawn between adaptation and sustainable development on
theoretical and political levels. Here poverty and constraints to development
fundamentally restrict adaptation. Relating to this, two tracks towards adaptation are
identified Adaptation approach to drought and Vulnerability reduction to
development. A case study of El Salvador is also cited.

The article focuses on a development agenda where there is emphasis on the


continuous nature of adaptation. It focuses on the processes that are necessary to
achieve sustainable adjustment to all factors contributing to risk. Here adaptation is
understood to guide development successfully in the light of increased risk from
global environmental, social and economic change. On the whole this paper argues
for the perspective of reducing the vulnerability of the poor through development
to adapt to climate change.

Introduction

29

The article Adapting to Climate Change (2008) by an anonymous author


discusses the need for adaptation especially for the poor communities of the world.
The main sector for their adaptation should be agriculture. The major concentration
of the article is on the Dry lands, which are under threat due to changing climate. It
talks about a case-study of Maharashtra whose 70% land is hot semi-arid to arid and
the agriculture is monsoon dependent. Here a Trust is working in this region for
catching rain wherever it falls with a community based resource management. Here
hydraulic structures, water-sheds and training of new and improved agricultural
practices are provided. The natural regeneration of grasses and shrubs is encouraged.
This led to improvement of bio-diversity and revival of flora and fauna of the region.
There is also a mention of the case-study of drought prone area in Bara Province of
western Sudan, which is also a degraded land where a somewhat similar community
based resource management, is done.

It has been suggested that the crop selection should be done of the crop which
can deal with the changing climate and this is a very effective way of adaptation by
the farmers. It is also suggested that the adaptation process can be made smoother if
they are made aware of the potential impacts of climate change.

The article Reviving Traditional Rainwater Harvesting Systems (2008)


whose author is anonymous supports the need and utility of conserving the
traditional rainwater harvesting systems as they are time tested and suitable to the
specific environment. These methods are low cost and also community managed
which encourages optimization of local recourse at micro-level. A few traditional
water harvesting methods in India are also mentioned like Khadins in Rajasthan,

Introduction

30

Virda in Gujarat, Dhora of Aravalli region and Eri of Tamil Nadu. Here a
traditional water harvesting system of Sudan is mentioned, stating that it enhanced
their agricultural production security.

Hurd (2008) presents a structured overview of basic concepts that underlie


the design and development of highly credible adaptation strategies i.e. a strategy
with the highest potential for success against the most likely range of changes in
environmental and societal conditions. The paper also interprets the termsSensitivity, Exposure and Adaptability as these are the interacting components with
vulnerability. On the question of when to adapt, the application of reactive and
anticipatory adaptation strategies is also examined. It has been suggested that
adaptation strategies develop over time, usually with sustained investment and
careful planning. It includes the ability of systems, organizations and individuals toadjust, mitigate and recover. A variety of adaptation strategies have also been
suggested like improving scientific capabilities, establishment of risk management
institutions, considering climatic factors in land use planning.

Sahai (2008) talks about the negative impact that the global climate change
will have on the crops around the world as it will impact the key cropping factors i.e.
temperature and rainfall. The article also points out that simulation of crop response
models are usually limited to important crops. The impact of higher temperatures,
increased carbon dioxide, rising water stress and increased crop pests are also
discussed. The article mentions the possible benefits of global warming which can
be good for agriculture - enhanced Carbon dioxide assimilation, longer growing
season, and increased precipitation.

Introduction

31

The author suggests that the best remedy to this problem is Climate Proofing
the crops. Where crop management practices should be changed by the farmers, grow
tougher plant varieties and be prepared for constant changes in the way they operate.

Srivastav (2008) discusses the strong link between agriculture and rainfall
and examines how strongly both of them impact the agricultural production and state
of farmers in India. The article also mentions that there are 177 districts where
agriculture is completely rain-fed. The author also cites a study conducted by TERI
in Chhattisgarh showing the impact of climate change on cropping pattern. The
article mentions that the frequency of droughts is also likely to increase due to climate
change as pointed out by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The
declaration of UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) regarding the need to
increase the resilience of the worlds food systems to climate change especially for
the developing nations is also cited here.

The article impresses on the fact that the Indian agricultural system should
put in place an apt coping mechanism timely to save the farmers and the production;
else it could witness a drastic fall in production.

Akermann et al. (2009) gives a glimpse of the major problems with which
the semi-arid Rajasthan is suffering prolonged drought periods, reoccurring in short
intervals as 80% of annual rainfall between June to September and rest nine months
remain dry. The irrigation coverage is also low. According to few farmers rainfall in
past few decades has become even more erratic and untimely, the number of rainy
days has also decreased as most of the agriculture is rainfall dependent and therefore
the farmers abandon their fields and work in nearby cities as their adaptation

Introduction

32

strategy. Here, the author also mentions the remarkable work done by an NGO
namely, Cecoedecon (Centre for Community Economics and Development
Consultant Society) in a village-Bhipur, Rajasthan. Due to its specialized assistance
through seed conservation and grain storage and water harvesting and controlling
were done which resulted in increased crop yield and soil moisture and even barren
land could be put under agriculture. More heat adapted and less water demanding
variety of crops like-millets, green-gram, pulses and mustard are introduced and
locally made pesticides e.g. of neem are used which reduce the input cost as well.
Local seed banks are also established.

With this article the author shows one of the successful adaptation practices
from local communities but also stresses on the fact that it was all due to the cooperation of the locals.

Dhaka et al. (2010) discusses about the importance of agriculture in India


and climate change as the key component influencing it highlights its impact on food
production and overall economy. The core area of study is how climate change
related disasters like drought, flood, cyclone, hail storm, high-wind and extreme
temperature affecting agriculture production, food security, water resources, bio
diversity are perceived by farmers and what adaptation strategies they adopt. For the
same the study is conducted in the Bundi district of Rajasthan where 500 farmers
were personally interviewed on the above issue. Descriptive statistics were used to
characterize farmers perception and various adaptation measures. The findings
suggest that- most farmers believed that the temperature distribution has undergone
a significant shift in addition to an overall increase in temperature; the rainfall levels

Introduction

33

have decreased; more occurrences of drought; late onset and early withdrawal of
monsoon is observed. Uneven distribution and unpredictable behavior of the rains is
also seen. When the factors influencing farmers perception to climate change were
noted they were- age, experience, innovativeness, environmental consciousness and
exposure of mass media. The adaptation strategies undertaken were- Integrated
farming system (most important adaptation technique), adjusting cropping sequence,
rain water harvesting etc.

It was observed that the farmers taking up adaptation measures were of more
age and experience, were receipt of extension, advice, level of education, larger farm
or showed environmental consciousness.

Measham et al. (2010) underlines the relevance of local governments for


responding to the climate change impacts but their role remains distant here. The
article presents an empirical study of the constraints on planning for climate
adaptation as identified by local government participants such as lack of information,
institutional limitations and resource limitation. Community Based Environmental
Planning can also be adopted but only after due consideration.

Based on the recognized constraints, the authors developed a research project


in Sydney, Australia with the aim to identify how local governments experience these
constraints and how they address them in practical terms. The findings of which
suggest that climate change is seen as one environmental issue along with pollution
and water quality. The participants also mentioned a lack of useful, credible and
relevant information about the nature of climate risk to which they must adapt to be
a key barrier for planning for climate change. The political nature of the local bodies

Introduction

34

also affects the decisions taken in this regards. Hence it is seen that role of local
bodies is crucial but due to some reason their functioning is not that effective as it
can be due the various barriers.

A report by World Bank (2010) sums up the various efforts carried out in
the most drought-prone districts of Mahbubnagar and Anantapur in Andra Pradesh
by a World Bank project - Andra Pradesh Drought Adaptation Initiative (APDAI). It
includes 19 pilot projects sought to enhance the adaptive capacity of rain fed farming
systems to climate variability through optimum use of water, Diversified Farming
System, System of Rice Intensification (SRI), Deccani breed improvement in sheep
and improvement in tank-based fisheries.

The groundwater pilots aim to introduce collective management of groundwater


and also to cultivate crops requiring less water instead of their earlier paddy crop. A
network has been set connecting five individual bore wells, which supplies water to
the entire area. Due to these efforts, Chellapur village remained unaffected in the
drought year of 2010. The farmers were able to increase area under Rabi crops and
have also taken fodder and vegetable crops. Groundnut production also increased
due to the use of sprinklers.

VULNERABILITY
Venema et al. (2002) in the article lays stress on the situation of rural India
and especially of women. The Indian society is largely agrarian and since 1950 there
have been an increase in out-migration of population to non-farm activities. In this
situation the role of women has been greatly marginalized. Their role in farms
include high amount labor still they are deprived of much economic benefit and

Introduction

35

illiteracy ruins this situation and many more. Due to climate change impact on crop
cycles are predicted due to which problems will rise for the rural poor. An example
of Kerala is cited where birth rates are low and literacy rate is high and has very less
gender discrimination. Therefore, the author suggests that the rural environmental
development programs should be community managed and women must play an
active role in the developmental programs and they should also be a central concern
of such programs.

The research paper by The Energy and Resources Institute (2003) deals
with the study of the impacts of climate change and of changes brought about by
economic globalization on a particular region or society. Use of a framework based
on the concept of double exposure is done here. It is identified that the major climate
induced effects are the direct effects from changes in temperature, precipitation, or
carbon dioxide concentrations, indirect effects through changes in soil moisture and
changes in the frequency of droughts or floods. On the economic part there is the
impact of globalization and the implementation of structural administrative reforms.
The Indian agriculture becomes even more vulnerable as there is not much scope to
increase the area under food grains whereas we still have the challenge of feeding a
billion people in a changing climatic and economic scenario. One of the objectives
of the study was to create climate change vulnerability profile for India at the district
level for which a series of maps were constructed. Hence maps depicting biophysical,
social, and technological and climate change vulnerability have been presented. A
second objective of the study was to create a globalization vulnerability profile for
Indian agriculture. For this the map is based on the degree of sensitivity and adaptive
capacity, assuming uniform exposure to liberalization policies such as tariff

Introduction

36

reductions. The two climate change and globalization vulnerability profiles were
then superimposed to identify districts that are double exposed to both processes.
The resulting map indicates that districts in western Rajasthan, southern Gujarat,
Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, northern Karnataka, northern Andhra Pradesh, and
southern Bihar are considered double exposed. To study the micro-level implications
of vulnerability in the double affected areas, case studies were conducted across five
districts, i.e. Jhalawar district of Rajasthan, Anantapur district in Andhra Pradesh,
Raipur in Chhattisgarh, Jagatsingpur in Orissa and Chitradurga district of Karnataka.
Based on the case studies conducted in these some policy formulation related
suggestion have been given so that they are designed to fortify current coping
capacity also have the power to strengthen long-term adaptive capacity. Measures
such as crop insurance, seed banks, alternative (off-farm) employment options, and
enhanced access to inputs and Markets. Another set of policy-relevant insights
offered by the case study approach relates to the understanding of how certain
factors change the vulnerability of a given community or place over time. This study
wishes to bring attention to the need for strengthening institutions and better
integrating policies with the goal of building long-term adaptive capacity and
resilience to climate change.

Hulme (2003) in his paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in
terms of its potential implications for society; the area under study is The United
Kingdom and northwest Europe in particular. The paper also mentions that the
previous works have generally considered the implications only from economic and
ecological perspectives. Here, the author discusses some implications from a social
and behavioural science perspective. The author considers that the events of abrupt

Introduction

37

climate change have generally been ignored during the analyses of climate-change
impacts and in the design of climate adaptation strategies. The nature of abrupt
climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are
also examined. The example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation is
discussed to show the implications for society of abrupt climate. The author also
examines if abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or
intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in
climate, and what impact it can pose on the adaptation strategies practiced now.

The paper concludes with mentioning the two fundamental problems for
society associated with such an outcome of an abrupt climate change. Firstly, the
future changes in climate currently being anticipated and; secondly, the probability
of such a scenario occurs remains fundamentally unknown. The implications of both
problems the problems occurring during climate policy and for decision making
have not been researched so far. It is suggested that a study should be undertaken to
analyze how society would respond to regional climate trends reversed and whether
or not this reversal was related to natural climate variability or abrupt climate change
triggered by anthropogenic forces.
Through a study OBrien et al. (2004) and other scholars have tried to
identify a method for mapping vulnerability to two stressors (i.e. climate change and
economic globalization) at the sub-national level and then it is applied to examine
the vulnerability of Indias agricultural sector.

The approach comprises four main steps: (1) developing a national vulnerability
profile for climate change at the district level; (2) developing a national vulnerability

Introduction

38

profile for an additional stressor at the district level; (3) superimposing the profiles
to identify districts in India that are double exposed; and (4) conducting case
studies in selected districts.

To develop a national vulnerability profile for climate change the approach


applies the IPCC typology is followed here to develop measures of adaptive capacity,
sensitivity and exposure. To measure adaptive capacity significant Biophysical (soil
conditions, groundwater availability), socioeconomic (levels of human and social
capital, the presence or lack of alternative economic activities and technological (the
availability of irrigation, quality of infrastructure) factors that influence agricultural
production are identified. Based on these factors in 1991 across Indias 466 district
map is produced where higher degrees of adaptive capacity in districts located along
the Indo-Gangetic Plains (except Bihar) and lower adaptive capacity in the interior
portions of the country, particularly in the states of Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh,
Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka are identified. To measure sensitivity
under exposure to climate change, a climate sensitivity index (CSI) that measures
dryness and monsoon dependence, based on a gridded data set for 19611990 was
created. The globalization vulnerability profile was constructed by combining for
each district the values of the adaptive capacity and import sensitivity indices as a
result high vulnerability in most of Rajasthan and Karnataka, as well as in substantial
portions of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Assam. Notable areas
of low vulnerability occur along the Indo-Gangetic plain is seen. In the end the
approach combines information from the climate and globalization vulnerability
maps to identify areas that are vulnerable to both stressors. The case study areas here
include-Jhalawar district in Rajasthan, Anantapur district in Andhra Pradesh and

Introduction

39

Chitradurga district in Karnataka. Apart from the various merits, like use of topdown and bottom-up approaches to understand vulnerability and identifying
locations where policy intervention is most critical, there are some limitations of the
method as well. There are differences between farmers and the villages not captured
during mapping though they are identified in case study; concerning the time scale
of the analysis; mapping the district level may lead to false sense of precision. But
the key strength of the approach is that it provides a means for evaluating the relative
distribution of vulnerability to multiple stressors at a sub-national level.

Tompkins et al. (2004) in the paper proposes the belief that adaptation to
climate change requires a broader conceptualization of equitable, legitimate, and
sustainable development in effective and resilient response. Some natural systems
have inbuilt ability to adapt whereas others have to learn how to become resilient.
Here the focus to built resilience in both social and ecological features is on the role
of networks and institutions. Managing natural resource systems with the added
stresses associated with climate change poses a challenge for socio-ecological systems.

This paper explores the potential benefits of present-day co-management (it


is one form of collective action whereby resource stakeholders work together with a
government agency to undertake some aspect of resource management) in building
resilience to cope with climate change through a case study of a coastal community
in Trinidad and Tobago that relies on coastal resources. Here, focus is specifically on
the role of co-management in building community resilience. Resource stakeholders
must follow approaches that offer pathways for vulnerable communities to engage in
developing response policies and ensure that there is room for change in those

Introduction

40

policies. In this paper the authors have cited a case of Trinidad & Tobago for how
co-management promotes resilience for climate change adaptation. There was struggle
of balancing development and conservation. But with co-management adaptations
the stakeholders now take both the actions together. This is believed to transform
into greater ecosystem resilience with time.

Mall et al. (2006) in the article points out that crop growth, development,
water use and yield under normal conditions are largely determined by weather
during the growing season and even with minor deviations from the normal weather,
the efficiency of extremely applied inputs and food production is seriously impaired.
In India agriculture plays a key role in overall economic and social well being. For
the study the all-India area, production and yield of food grains from 1950-51 to
2003-04 along with percentage coverage under irrigation data have been analyzed. It
shows that all these factors are dependent on the vagaries of monsoon. Global
warming may also threaten India food security if there is a negative effect on
agriculture. Climate variability and food production are enormously linked as
extreme weather conditions, such as floods, droughts, heat and cold wave, flash
floods, cyclones and hailstorm, are direct hazards to crops and subtle fluctuation in
weather during critical phases of crop development can also have substantial impact
on yields. Impacts on wheat, sorghum, rice, chickpea, soya bean and maize have
been presented. It is suggested that adaptation measures to mitigate the potential
impact of climate change included possible changes in sowing dates and genotypes
selection. It also mentions that several studies have projected increase or decrease in
yields of cereal crops (rice, wheat, maize and sorghum), Oilseed and pulses crops
(soybean, groundnut, chickpea, mustard and pigeon pea) depending on interaction of

Introduction

41

temperature and CO2 changes, production environment, season and location in India.
Still the climate change impact studies have not conducted on several important
crops in India such as sugarcane, cotton, jute, sunflower, potato and onion etc., which
may be done in future for better assessment of vulnerability of Indian agriculture due
to climate change.

Malone et al. (2008) discusses about their study conducted in 2005, in which
they assessed the current resilience of India and Indian states to climate, using
Vulnerability Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM). Through this approach we learn
about the differing sources and levels of vulnerability and resilience of the Indian
states. In this study the future scenario of Resilience Assessment is also done.
VRIM is a four-tier hierarchical model uses 17 proxies (relating to Sensitivity and
Adaptive Capacity), each contributing to the overall Resilience Index. The projections
utilized two IPCCs SRES based scenario rapid growth scenario and delayed
growth scenario. A comparative study of Orissa & Punjab has been done as to show
what kind of data can be obtained from VIRM. The outcomes of this model can be
used by policy makers and this model can be applied elsewhere for resilience study.

Bhuiyan et al. (2009) in the paper examine the spatio-temporal variations in


aquifer-recharge in response to erratic monsoon rainfall, high heat flow and
increasing demand by analyzing GIS-based time-series. On this basis zones with
declining trend of water table have been demarcated. The study area for the same is
located in Rajasthan between latitude 23o30N to 26o18N; longitude 72o24E to
74o39E covering about 25000 sq km of the Aravalli range. This area has very few
surface water bodies and lies in the semi-arid climatic zone. The data used for study

Introduction

42

deals with 38 years of rainfall since 1966 to 2003 and the data for ground water level
since 1984 to 2003 i.e. 20 years for comparison with water level fluctuations and
rainfall patterns and their variations are studied for two decades during 1984-2003.
The ground water levels fluctuate differently in the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon
period. The fluctuation was represented using water index WFI which was developed
to quantify recharged deficit. It was found that for the monsoon period recharge
exceeds withdrawal and vice-versa for non-monsoon period. In the decadal
observations are asymmetric response of water table to monsoon rainfall is seen. The
inter-annual variability of rainfall follows no deficit trend or pattern.

Through this study we come to know that the monsoon rainfall has improved
to some extent in the last decade in the south-western part but decreased in the
central Aravalli. Significant change in aquifer-recharge is observed in the later decade
in comparison to earlier decade and the GIS-based time-series analysis is found
advantageous in monitoring spatio-temporal variation of ground-water recharge.

The report by Vulnerability and Adaptation Program in Semi-Arid India


(2009) which worked in Rajasthan and Andra Pradesh from 2005-2009 talks about
two major climate changes. Firstly, the 60% population of India resides in rural
regions whose livelihood is primarily based on climate-sensitive natural resources
with poor adaptive capacity. Secondly, is the concern associated with the biodiversity
loss as around 70% of natural vegetation in India will find it difficult to adapt with
the changing climate. To assess the vulnerability in India the semi-arid regions have
been considered as they are very vulnerable. The areas that were identified for
program implementation were Kothur and Srirangpur of Mahabubnagar district in

Introduction

43

Andra Pradesh and Amda and Kundai of Udaipur district in Rajasthan. The climatic
conditions of all the four villages were assessed and on that basis their climate
projections and the impact on natural resources was calculated. To build response
capacity and improve management of climate risks it included interventions for
improved land and water management, energy conservation, promotion of best
agronomic practices, introducing systems for improved weather based farming
decisions and awareness creation.

Goyal (2009) discussed about how global warming is expected to have a


profound

effect

on hydrological cycle viz.

precipitation,

soil

moisture,

evapotranspiration (ET) etc. the major stress is laid on the relation between the
effect of global warming on crops water requirement and ultimately on groundwater
resources of Rajasthan. Here, rate of ET has been taken has been taken as the main
component for the study and its relation is studied with climate change and water
resources. The author also stressed upon the fact that the proper water management
techniques should be put to practice as Rajasthan already has water scarcity and it is
likely to increase as the rate of ET is increasing causing a reverse affect an crop
production which ultimately affects the economy of the state.

The book by Singh et al. (2009) talks about the unprecedented loss and
changes in biodiversity taking place at the genetic, species and ecosystem levels, in
both terrestrial and marine group of organisms at Uttarakhand in particular. The
chapters include - Environmental change and biodiversity: Global and Indian
experiences; Environmental change and biodiversity in Uttarakhand; Environmental
change and biodiversity: conceptual framework and research design; Environmental

Introduction

44

profile of Nanda Devi biosphere reserve; Land use/ land cover change and biodiversity:
using RS, GIS and perception approaches; Inventory of biodiversity using: RS and
GIS; Landslide hazard and biodiversity; Biodiversity conservation: global to local
initiatives. The chapter Land use/ land cover change and biodiversity: using RS,
GIS and perception approaches mentions that there is an increased use of Remote
Sensing and GIS technology for the study of land cover/use dynamics. Images from
Landsat-7 acquired from Enhanced Thematic Mappper are utilized. To study the
region, it has been divided into four classes- forest, glaciers, river and bare-land. As
all these classes are dynamic, changes can be studied efficiently. The authors point
out that the problem of biodiversity loss needs to be minimized in order to keep the
ecosystem functional. The book also contributes to Indias efforts in fulfilling the
goals of the International Year of Planet Earth, Kyoto Protocol and UNFCCC.

Arora et al. (2010) mentions that climate change is expected to lead an


intensification of the global hydrological cycle and can have major impacts on
regional water resources affecting both surface and ground water supply. Due to
these factors water stresses will be seen on drinking water and sanitation and also
crop yield. The authors also cite that Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) has specifically designated several of Indias low-lying coastal river deltasthe Ganges, the Godavari, the Krishna and the Mahanadi- as particular hotspots of
climate change vulnerability. The amount water availability data and the National
Water Mission in the country are also mentioned.

The authors reveal that India has witnessed climatic anomalies but is still
under-prepared to face climate change impacts. So for these adaptation strategies

Introduction

45

aiming at sustainable development and management of water must be promoted;


policy changes must be made; more studies should be done in this field and
appropriate models must be adopted.

EXTREME EVENTS
Jodha (1969) does the analysis of weekly rainfall data for 47 years (i.e.
1908-1966) the scholar predicts that there is an occurrence of at least one severe
drought in a period of five years. The study indicated that the agriculture gets
affected due to paucity of rainfall but there are other factors too which contribute
like less soil moisture, low atmospheric humidity and high temperature; these too
contribute in water loss. In this situation if modern conservation techniques likebunding, mulching, micro-wind breaks, shelter belts are used then the water paucity
situation created by drought can be controlled. The farmers must also stick to the
cropping of bajra, moth, gwar etc. as they are drought resistant. Similarly, the
perennial grasses must be used to sustain livestock economy. The author also points
out the fact that the grazing lands have a lot of forage to support the animals for two
to three years in the arid region of Rajasthan like Jaisalmer, Barmer, and Bikaner.
But this phenomenon is seen only during monsoonal period. As the water dries in
the region the forage dries up. Therefore, there is a need of stock watering
arrangement so that this forage can be used as pasture land even during the scarcity
period. Proper grazing regulation should be made to ensure controlled and
systematic use of forage.

The author suggests that the government should spend on conservational


methods and it will eventually have lesser spending on the drought relief works. If

Introduction

46

the land use patterns of the districts like Barmer, Bikaner and Jaisalmer are properly
controlled then the scarcity situation can be brought very much in control.

In his paper White (2000) highlights the importance of drought policy,


vegetation monitoring and land management in reducing the impact of drought. The
author has cited the drought policies from Australia and southern Africa. Some of
their practices can even be incorporated in the other arid regions of the world. The
paper stresses that there should be an affective national drought policy which should
aim at making people self reliant. Government policies must favor planning and
preparation for droughts in advance and enough support should be provided to
related researches and farmers education on the same.

Wilhite (2000) in his paper discusses the concept of drought as a natural


hazard having both natural and social components along with drought preparedness
and planning and related policies in United States at state level since 1982. He sees
that the basic goal of state drought plans is to improve the effectiveness of state
response efforts by enhancing monitoring and early warning, risk and impact
assessment and response and mitigation programs. Local, federal and tribal
governments are also given greater attention to drought planning. A review of the
status and progress in 11 sub-Saharan African countries are also included. It is
generally observed here that drought policies are lacking, there is a lack of
preparedness. Still countries like Botswana and South Africa are doing some
progressive work in this field. He also suggests a drought policy and planning
process developed in 1991 in United States for state level governments as a remedy.
He suggests that the various governments can use these steps according to their

Introduction

47

requirements to address the issues associated with drought preparedness as an


integral part of planning for sustainable development.

Wilhite et al. (2001) suggests that there should be a method to supply


drought warnings timely so that proper precautionary measures can be taken timely.
For the same the paper suggests that a proper drought monitoring system should be
introduced. In that system assessment of droughts magnitude, its affect on people
and availability of water resources must be done accurately. Here, an Integrated
Drought Monitoring system has been advocated. It is a very scientific data based
computation method, where all the data should be fed correctly covering information
from local, regional and national level. Using these system assessment products can
be generated on a daily, weekly or monthly basis. A case study of USA is also cited
in the paper, in which the evolution of their drought monitoring system has been
given which was launched in 1999. This system consists of color map and a summary
stating the droughts current impacts, future threats and prospects for improvement.
Using this system drought has been categorized in 5 intensities i.e. Abnormally Dry,
Moderate, Severe, Extreme and Exceptional Drought. The shortcoming of this
system is that no two droughts have same behaviour and no single parameter is
sufficient enough to determine the severity of drought. But if the observations are
operationalised properly then a very reliable drought monitoring and management
system can be prepared.

The paper by De (2005) reviews the major natural disasters and extreme
weather events which occurred in India from 1901 to 2004. The abnormalities are
observed in the occurrence of- cold wave, fog, snow storms, avalanches, hailstorm,

Introduction

48

thunder storm, dust storm, heat wave, tropical cyclones, tidal waves, floods, heavy
rains, landslides and drought. It has been observed that the frequency and duration of
the events have increased which cause loss of life and property. IPCC in 2001 has
observed that human activities are largely responsible for global warming. This
situation has been intensified due to deforestation, urbanization, and increase in the
number of automobiles. Due to the increase in the frequency of extreme events the
infrastructure associated with the population has also become vulnerable.

Bhuiyan et al. (2006) gives a detailed study of seasonal drought dynamics


has been carried out to identify spatio-temporal drought patterns in meteorological,
hydrological, and vegetative spheres with keeping in mind that drought perception
varies significantly among regions of different climates. Here the study area was
selected in the Aravalli region of Rajasthan of 25,000sq km between latitude
N23030 N26018 and longitude E72024-E74036. Time-series drought maps of the
region have been generated in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment
using various drought indices. Since aquifer recharge, agricultural activities, and
ecological changes are controlled by rainfall, the present analysis has been focused
on drought during the monsoon and the non monsoon periods. The region is dry for
most of the year except the rainy season (i.e. June-September) and exhibits a semiarid climate. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has been used to monitor
meteorological drought. It is based on the probability on the probability of
precipitation for any desired time scale and spatially invariant indicator of drought.
SPI has been used to quantify the precipitation deficit in the monsoon and the nonmonsoon periods from 1984 to 2003. Standard Water-Level Index (SWI) was used
to analyze hydrological drought. It was proposed to monitor anomaly in ground-

Introduction

49

water level as a correspondent of aquifer- stress. The pre-monsoon and postmonsoon ground-water levels of 541 wells of the region had been collected from the
Ground Water Department, Jodhpur, Rajasthan, and have been analyzed to study the
drought effects on hydrological regime Normalised Difference Vegetation Index
(NDVI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI)
and Vegetation Health Index (VHI) have been employed to assess vegetative
drought. Vegetative and agricultural droughts reflect vegetation- stress caused due
to adverse climatic and hydrologic factors. NDVI reflects the vegetation condition
through the ratio of responses in near infrared (Ch2) and visible (Ch1) bands of
Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) of NOAA VCI varies in the
range 0 and 100 (%) reflect relative changes in the vegetation condition from
extremely bad to optimal. Similarly, Temperature Condition Index represents the
relative change in thermal condition in terms of brightness temperature whose values
are obtained from the thermal band (Ch4) of NOAA-AVHRR. VCI, TCI and VHI of
the study area have been computed for the monsoon and the non-monsoon periods
during the years 19842002 by averaging weekly values. Some of the significant
findings in the context of meteorological drought severe to extreme droughts were
observed during 1984-1987, 2000; moderate drought- 1991, 1993, 1995 and 1999.
Hydrological drought is marked by decline of water level at various pockets both
during the monsoon and the non monsoon periods depending upon rainfall,
temperature and draft. During the monsoon of 1985, the vegetation experienced
stress and loss of vegetation health (i.e. vegetative drought) However, it is also seen
that a reasonably good match is observed among all the three drought indices SPI,
SWI and VHI.

Introduction

50

SPI maps indicate that meteorological drought appears in the Aravalli region
in a random fashion. The SWI maps reveal that in the Aravalli region aquifer-stress
shifts its position time to time and the migration is alternate from east to west and
vice versa. In comparison to hydrological stress, vegetative stress in the Aravalli
region is slower to begin but quicker to withdraw. The time-series maps of different
droughts reveal no linear correlation. Moreover, speed of drought development and
drought duration also vary widely. Therefore, identification, classification, and
analysis of drought dynamics are highly influenced by the monitoring parameters.

The article by Goswami et al. (2006) discussed about the variability of


rainfall resulting in the increase of extreme rain events such as landslides, flash
floods, crop damage etc. in spite of the fact that no significant long term trend is
identifiable. For the study, the scholars used a daily gauged rainfall data at 1 by 1
resolution from IMD based on 1803 stations that have at least 90% data availability
for the period 1951-2000. The Central India is selected as the region to examine the
trends. The findings suggest that the maximum 1-day rainfall during the summer
monsoon of 1951 to 2003 is C1 was 58.2 cm and there is a 10% increase per decade
in the level of heavy rainfall since 1950s whereas the number of extreme events
have more than doubled indicating a large increase in disaster potential. The
observed trends suggest enhanced risks associated with extreme rainfall over India
in the coming decades, even though no clear trend can be projected.

The article by Jain et al. (2009) is aimed at integrating meteorological and


satellite based drought indicators for drought monitoring in the southern part of
Rajasthan state which experiences very frequent and the highest degree of droughts

Introduction

51

in India. They identify that out of 3.28mil km2 of geographical area of India about
1.07 mil km2 land experiences water stress and drought condition. By studying the
climatic records of Rajasthan, it is selected by the scholars as the study area. Here,
13 districts covering an area of 10.72 mha i.e. 23000N and 26005N latitude,
71018E and 77042 E were selected for drought monitoring. This area covers 4 out
of the 9 agro-climatic zones identified in the state namely- the transitional plain of
Luni basin (zone 1), the Sub humid southern plain zone and the Aravalli hills (zone
2), the humid south- eastern plain (zone 3) and the humid southern plain (zone 4).
The meteorological data in form of monthly precipitation data for 5 stations
(Udaipur, Bhilwara, Dungarpur, Chittorgarh and Kota) from 1981-2005 was used.
27 NOAA-AVHRR satellite images were used for the period 2002-2005. The
Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) based on precipitation data and the NDVI
(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), TCI (Temperature Condition Effect),
VCI (Vegetation Condition Index) using satellite data were applied to identify
drought prone area they were computed from satellite derived land surface
parameters. By using the precipitation values for all the stations for the monsoon
period (June to October) for the years 2002-2005 were computed at the NDVI, VCI,
TCI, BT (Brightness Temperature) and WSVI (Water Supply Vegetative Index)
were obtained from AVHRR images during 2002-2005. Here we find that SPI which
revealed that 2002 was the most drought affected state is a very reliable drought
indicator in raj. The economic analysis of NDVI shows that Zone-1 had max drought
conditions from the years followed by Zone-4; Zone-2 and 3 were least affected.
The result reflects the possibility of using satellite images with better spatial and
temporal resolution in drought monitoring in India.

Introduction

52

Guhathakurta et al. (2011) suggests that a large amount of variability of


rainfall is related to the occurrence of extreme rainfall events and their intensities.
So a study of spatial variability of extreme rainfall events over different parts of the
country would help to identify zones of high and low values of extreme rainfall
events. For the study daily rainfall data was collected from 1901-2005 for 2599
stations. To detect the trend the non-parametric Mann-Kendell Test was used. With
its help stations with significant increasing and decreasing trend in frequency of
rainy days were marked. The result talks about all the 36 meteorological subdivisions of India. Annual normal rainy days vary from the low value of 10 over
extreme western parts of Rajasthan to the high frequency of 130 days over
northeastern parts of the country. This study reveals the noticeable changes in the
extreme rainfall events that occurred over India in the past century. The flood risk
also increased significantly over India. The flood risk was more in the decades
19811990, 19711980 and 19912000 over the eastern coast, West Bengal, east
Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Konkan region.

Introduction

53

1.3

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY:

1.

To understand the changing scenario of Rajasthan with respect to climate


change through rainfall, temperature.

2.

To study the extreme weather events of flood and drought in Rajasthan

3.

To address the vulnerabilities to current water scarcity and climate change


risks.

4.

To study Rajasthan Governments adaptation strategy, plans and programs


on water resource in the light of climate change

Introduction

1.4

HYPOTHESIS

1.

Extreme events i.e. droughts and floods have increased in the state.

54

Nature of rainfall has changed with increase or decrease in precipitation in


most of the districts in Rajasthan.

3.

Heat waves/hot spells in summer of longer duration, more intense and more
frequent, particularly in Western Rajasthan.

4.

Dependency on ground water has increased.

Introduction

1.5

55

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Source of Data Collection


The study is based on the secondary data and literature collected from the
research institutions, libraries and related government departments. For primary data
collection Survey was conducted in the Barmer district. The data was statistically
analyzed and is presented in the form of tables, maps and graphs.

Methods of Data Processing


The data is analyzed in two modes, i.e. statistical analysis and cartographic
analysis. The statistical analysis was done with the help of SPSS (Statistical Product
and Service Solutions) 15.0. For cartographic work MapInfo Professional 6.5 was
used.

Case Studies
Two case studies were conducted covering rural as well as urban area. First
study was conducted to find out the farmers respond to climate change in rural area
of Rajasthan. For this Aagore, Mahaderi Naadi, Uttarlai naadi, Sarkapaar,
Naganeshia and Beriyon ka Baas dhaanis were covered from drought prone areas
of the state. A questionnaire was prepared to collect the primary data.
Second study was conducted in the Barmer city urban area to study the
urbanization, water crises and its management.