Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
India I Equities
Daily
4 December 2014
Sensex: 28443
Nifty: 8538
Markets
Sensex
Nifty
Dow Jones
S & P 500
FTSE
Nikkei*
Hang Seng*
3 Dec 14
1 Day
YTD
28443
8538
17913
2074
6717
17845
23517
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
-0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
34.3%
35.4%
8.1%
12.2%
-0.5%
9.5%
0.9%
3 Dec 14
1 Day
Avg '14
636
3,132
22,318
21.3%
13.7%
-30.0%
526
2,643
32,107
3 Dec 14*
MTD
YTD
769
705
63
2,046
1,967
78
136,724
121,892
16,364
2,443
2,512
-69
8,874
9,359
-485
815,449
804,641
10,115
319
345
-25
818
939
-122
27,972
25,500
2,238
3 Dec 14
1 Day
YTD
70.3
1,208.5
572.5
61.9
1.2
119.8
8.0%
8.0%
354.13
0.5%
-0.1%
-3.8%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
5.bps
.bps
1.4bps
-33.6%
0.2%
-2.1%
-0.2%
11.6%
-12.1%
-75.bps
-85.2bps
19.9bps
Volumes (US$m)
Cash BSE
Cash NSE
Derivatives (NSE)
Flows (US$m)
FII Cash
Buy
Sell
Net
FII - Derivatives
Buy
Sell
Net
DII Cash
Buy
Sell
Net
Others
Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter ARSSBL) is a full service brokerage and equities research firm and the views expressed therein are solely
of ARSSBL and not of the companies which have been covered in the Research Report. This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient and is to be circulated
only within India and to no countries outside India. Disclosures and analyst certifications are present in Appendix.
Anand Rathi Research
India Equities
4 December 2014
Market Data
Large Caps
Mid Caps
Small Caps
(>US$1bn)
(US$250m-1bn)
(US$100m-250m)
Price Performance
Top-5 gainers
Company
Price Performance
CMP (INR)
1 wk (%)
1 Mth (%)
BERGER PAINTS
424
19.5
6.6
WOCKHARDT LTD
936
15.6
174
14.7
1 wk (%)
1 Mth (%)
378
54.4
62.7
SPICEJET LTD
23.5
505
34.1
52.7
TAKE SOLUTIONS
56
39.1
37.1
10.7
STRIDES ARCOLAB
911
23.8
36.7
SEQUENT SCIENTIF
536
27.5
19.0
556
26.6
38.7
70
26.0
78.0
1 Mth (%)
1096
13.6
17.7
ORIENTAL BANK OF
310
13.4
8.6
CMP (INR)
1 wk (%)
1 Mth (%)
681
(14.9)
(15.7)
1325
(8.6)
(2.0)
VEDANTA RESOURCE
CONTAINER CORP
GMR INFRASTRUCTU
Price Performance
Top-5 gainers
Company
CMP (INR)
Top-5 losers
Company
Top-5 gainers
Company
353
16.0
24.2
ZYDUS WELLNESS
801
14.8
27.7
ONMOBILE GLOBAL
CMP (INR)
1 wk (%)
1 Mth (%)
SUZLON ENERGY
13
(9.6)
(2.2)
ABAN OFFSHORE
543
(8.4)
(13.0)
Top-5 losers
Company
Top-5 losers
Company
CMP (INR)
1 wk (%)
21
39.6
1 Mth (%)
50.0
CMP (INR)
1 wk (%)
12
(22.3)
(56.4)
33
(11.8)
(30.2)
18
(8.5)
(15.0)
KAVERI SEED
844
(7.5)
(8.5)
RS SOFTWARE INDI
542
(10.4)
(15.9)
361
(6.7)
(11.0)
JK CEMENTS LTD
606
(6.7)
0.3
GUJARAT NATURAL
182
(8.7)
(10.9)
NATIONAL ALUMIN
58
(6.6)
1.0
85
(5.7)
(25.5)
15
(8.4)
0.7
FUTURE RETAIL LT
GAMMON INFRASTRU
Volume
Volume
Volume
Volume spurts
Company
Volume spurts
Company
Volume spurts
Company
CMP (INR)
1 wk avg
1/4 wk (%)
CMP (INR)
1 wk avg
1/4 wk (%)
CMP (INR)
1 wk avg
1/4 wk (%)
GUJARAT GAS CO
594
1,280,553
191.4
MOTILAL OSWAL
259
271,523
171.4
ICVL CHEMICALS L
195
1,518
282.9
OBEROI REALTY
258
1,115,807
171.7
505
547,895
150.6
TAKE SOLUTIONS
56
2,238,107
266.4
CROMPTON GREAVES
189
24,660,992
157.0
STRIDES ARCOLAB
911
1,177,743
141.8
TRIBHOVANDAS BHI
169
591,423
173.4
BERGER PAINTS
424
1,471,113
135.9
378
8,013,150
133.7
GOODYEAR INDIA
659
129,274
134.1
34,281
26,418
81.6
200
1,301,477
124.1
556
1,010,260
127.5
CMP (INR)
200D Avg
(%)
CMP (INR)
200D Avg
(%)
CMP (INR)
200D Avg
(%)
800
429
85.3
BOMBAY BURMAH TR
457
182
151.2
ICVL CHEMICALS L
195
53
263.3
641
2,403
359
1,465
78.8 #
64.4 #
CENTURY PLYBOARD
JK TYRE & IND LT
163
639
80
319
104.3
99.5
EXDON TRADING CO
VISAGAR POLYTEX
308
805
85
234
259.4
253.3
EICHER MOTORS
14,359
8,901
61.1 #
GATI LTD
269
138
95.7
KAMALAKSHI FINAN
439
126
245.7
ASHOK LEYLAND
55
34
60.8
KITEX GARMENTS
523.7
285.6
82.3
71
25
171.0
CMP (INR)
200D Avg
(%)
12
33
(63.4)
MRF LTD
Technicals
Above 200 DMA
Company
Technicals
NATIONAL BUILDIN
WHIRLPOOL OF IND
AJANTA PHARMA
CMP (INR)
200D Avg
(%)
142
250
(42.7)
Technicals
CMP (INR)
200D Avg
(%)
13
19
(27.7)
JAIPRAKASH ASSOC
30
52
(42.2)
PIPAVAV DEFENCE
35
47
(25.1)
SKIL INFRASTRUCT
29
54
(47.6)
VEDANTA RESOURCE
681
972
(30.0)
FUTURE RETAIL LT
85
113
(24.5)
KAPPAC PHARMA
262
421
(38.2)
18
26
(27.3)
JAYPEE INFRATECH
21
27
(22.6)
352
539
(34.6)
260
326
(20.2)
JAIPRAKASH POWER
13
17
(21.2)
FINANCIAL TECHNO
188
270
(30.5)
GMR INFRASTRUCTU
CAIRN INDIA
Source: Bloomberg
India Equities
Healthcare
India I Equities
Company Update
Change in Estimates Target Reco
4 December 2014
Fortis Healthcare
Rating: Hold
Target Price: `125
Share Price: `107
FORH IN / FOHE.BO
`136 / `93
28443/8537
US$1.0m
`49.6bn / US$0.8bn
462..8
Focus back on India. In 2QFY15 Fortis Healthcare announced its RedLinkAsia Pte Ltd, Singapore, divestiture to Medi-Rad Associates for SG$137m.
This is in line with the companys strategy to focus on its domestic businesses.
After this divestment, the company does not have any international
operations. We view this as positive development and expect growth and
margins to improve ahead.
Promoters
- of which, Pledged
Free Float
- Foreign Institutions
- Domestic Institutions
- Public
71.34
74.44
28.66
9.04
0.31
19.31
FY13
FY14
FY15e
FY16e
FY17e
Sales (`m)
60,516
47,593
41,932
45,853
51,307
-1,842
-1,654
-1,138
-31
1,234
-4.0
-3.6
-2.5
-0.1
2.7
EPS (`)
Growth (%)
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
PE (x)
-23.8
-30.0
-43.5
NA
40.2
P/B (x)
15.2
36.6
46.2
22.4
14.0
RoE (%)
1.2
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.8
RoCE (%)
-5.3
-4.1
-2.5
-0.1
2.2
2.5
1.1
0.1
1.4
2.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Sales
EBITDA
EPS
71.34
82.55
28.66
8.84
0.3
19.52
71.34
69.6
28.66
9.09
0.79
18.78
FY15e
FY16e
0
(4.8)
NA
(2.4)
(3.2)
NA
Sensex
140
130
120
Fortis
110
100
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
90
Source: Bloomberg
Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter ARSSBL) is a full service brokerage and equities research firm and the views expressed therein are solely of
ARSSBL and not of the companies which have been covered in the Research Report. This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient and is to be circulated only within
India and to no countries outside India. Disclosures and analyst certifications are present in Appendix.
Anand Rathi Research
India Equities
4 December 2014
Net revenues
Revenue growth (%)
- Oper. expenses
EBIDTA
EBITDA margin (%)
- Interest expenses
- Depreciation
+ Other income
- Tax
Effective tax rate (%)
Reported PAT
+/- Extraordinary items
+/- Minority interest
Adjusted PAT
Adj. FDEPS (`/sh)
Adj. FDEPS growth (%)
FY13
FY14
FY15e
FY16e
FY17e
60,516
102.8
53,729
6,787
11.2
6,340
3,706
1,570
2,313
29.1
5,644
9,646
809
(1,842)
(4.0)
NA
47,593
(21.4)
45,759
1,834
3.9
3,163
2,479
1,706
265
18.5
1,166
3,533
158
(1,654)
(3.6)
NA
41,932
(11.9)
40,591
1,341
3.2
1,499
2,303
903
(312)
20.0
(1,247)
0
109
(1,138)
(2.5)
NA
45,853
9.4
43,291
2,562
5.6
1,312
2,462
1,038
(35)
20.0
(139)
0
109
(31)
(0.1)
NA
51,307
11.9
47,629
3,678
7.2
939
2,525
1,194
281
20.0
1,126
0
109
1,234
2.7
NA
FY13
FY14
FY15e
FY16e
FY17e
4,095
33,013
37,109
16,912
64,650
261
118,932
95,179
11,874
3,893
6,762
5,117
118,932
59,533
(13.8)
90.6
4,628
38,196
42,824
8,093
20,076
350
71,342
42,939
18,174
9,934
7,644
2,585
71,342
17,491
(5.7)
92.5
4,628
43,172
47,799
8,093
20,076
350
76,318
43,090
18,174
9,934
7,422
7,633
76,318
12,443
0.6
103.3
4,628
48,117
52,745
8,093
15,076
350
76,263
43,127
18,174
9,934
7,656
7,306
76,263
7,770
0.0
114.0
4,628
54,296
58,924
8,093
10,076
350
77,442
43,102
18,174
9,934
7,929
8,237
77,442
1,839
0.2
127.3
PAT
+ Non-cash items
Cash profit
- Incr./(Decr.) in WC
Operating cash-flow
- Capex
Free cash-flow
- Dividend
+ Equity raised
+ Debt raised
- Investments
- Misc. items
Net cash-flow
+ Op. cash & bank bal.
Cl. cash & bank bal.
Share capital
Reserves & surplus
Net worth
Minority interest
Total debt
Def. tax liab. (net)
Capital employed
Net fixed assets
Investments
- of which, Liquid
Net working capital
Cash and bank bal.
Capital deployed
Net debt
WC days
Book value (`/sh)
Year-end: Mar
Year-end: Mar
FY14
FY15e
FY16e
FY17e
5,644
1,166
3,706
2,479
9,350
3,645
(94)
882
9,444
2,763
1,396 (49,761)
8,047 52,524
0
0
0
5,298
(5,824) (44,574)
9,463
6,299
8,207 (9,480)
968 (2,532)
4,149
5,117
5,117
2,585
(1,247)
2,303
1,056
(222)
1,279
2,454
(1,175)
0
0
0
0
6,223
5,048
2,585
7,633
(139)
2,462
2,323
235
2,088
2,500
(412)
0
0
(5,000)
0
5,085
(327)
7,633
7,306
1,126
2,525
3,651
273
3,378
2,500
878
0
0
(5,000)
0
5,053
931
7,306
8,237
Year-end: Mar
P/E (x)
P/B (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Dividend payout (%)
Asset turnover (x)
Net Debt/Equity (x)
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
Net debt/Op. CF (x)
Interest coverage (x)
P/CEPS (x)
EV/ sales (x)
M-cap/sales (x)
FY13
FY14
FY15e
FY16e
FY17e
(23.8)
1.2
15.2
(5.3)
2.5
0.0
0.0
0.6
1.7
8.8
6.3
0.5
23.5
1.7
0.7
(30.0)
1.2
36.6
(4.1)
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.5
9.5
6.3
(0.2)
60.1
1.4
1.0
(43.5)
1.0
46.2
(2.5)
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.4
9.3
9.7
(0.6)
42.5
1.5
1.2
NA
0.9
22.4
(0.1)
1.4
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.3
3.0
3.7
0.1
20.4
1.3
1.1
40.2
0.8
14.0
2.2
2.7
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.5
1.2
13.2
1.0
1.0
(`m)
200,000
SRL
18%
160,000
International
4%
120,000
80,000
28x
25x
20x
15x
40,000
Indian Hospitals
78%
Nov-14
May-14
Nov-13
May-13
Nov-12
May-12
Nov-11
May-11
Nov-10
Nov-09
May-10
Nov-08
May-09
Nov-07
May-08
Appendix
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this Research Report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the
compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research
analyst(s) in this report. The research analysts are bound by stringent internal regulations and also legal and statutory requirements of the Securities and Exchange
Board of India (hereinafter SEBI) and the analysts compensation are completely delinked from all the other companies and/or entities of Anand Rathi, and have
no bearing whatsoever on any recommendation that they have given in the Research Report.
Important Disclosures on subject companies
Rating and Target Price History (as of 3 December 2014)
190
Fortis
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
170
150
130
4
2
110
Date
24-Oct-11
14-Feb-12
11-Jun-12
27-Dec-12
13-Feb-13
4-Jun-13
8-Oct-13
Rating
Buy
Hold
Sell
Sell
Hold
Hold
Hold
TP
(`)
160
120
102
110
118
105
116
Share
Price (`)
121
107
101
117
102
90
116
3
6
90
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Oct-11
Aug-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jan-11
70
The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of Anand Rathi Research have received compensation based
upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors, firm revenues and overall investment banking
revenues.
Anand Rathi Ratings Definitions
Analysts ratings and the corresponding expected returns take into account our definitions of Large Caps (>US$1bn) and Mid/Small Caps (<US$1bn) as described
in the Ratings Table below:
Ratings Guide
Large Caps (>US$1bn)
Mid/Small Caps (<US$1bn)
Buy
>15%
>25%
Hold
5-15%
5-25%
Sell
<5%
<5%
Hold
27%
0%
Sell
13%
0%
Other Disclosures
This report has been issued by ARSSBL which is a SEBI regulated entity, and which is in full compliance with all rules and regulations as are applicable to its
functioning and governance. The investors should note that ARSSBL is one of the companies comprising within ANAND RATHI group, and ANAND RATHI as a
group consists of various companies which may include (but is not limited to) its subsidiaries, its affiliates, its group companies who may hold positions, views,
stakes and may service the companies covered in this report independent of ARSSBL. Investors are cautioned to be aware that there could arise a potential
conflict of interest in the views held by ARSSBL and other companies of Anand Rathi who maybe affiliated, connected or catering to the companies mentioned in
the Research Report; even though, ARSSBL and Anand Rathi are fully complaint with all procedural and operational regulatory requirements. Thus, investors
should not use this as a sole basis for making their investment decision and should consider the recommendations mentioned in the Research Report bearing in
mind the aforementioned.
Further, the information herein has been obtained from various sources which we believe is reliable, and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures
or other derivatives related to such securities (hereinafter referred to as Related Investments). ARSSBL and/or Anand Rathi may trade for their own accounts as
market maker / jobber and/or arbitrageur in any securities of the companies mentioned in the Research Report or in related investments, and may be on taking a
different position from the ones which haven been taken by the public orders. ARSSBL and/or Anand Rathi and its affiliates, directors, officers, and employees may
have a long or short position in any securities of the companies mentioned in the Research Report or in Related Investments. ARSSBL and/or Anand Rathi, may
from time to time, perform investment banking, investment management, financial advisory or any other services not explicitly mentioned herein, or solicit
investment banking or other business from, any entity and/or company mentioned in this Research Report; however, the same shall have no bearing whatsoever
on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the other
companies of Anand Rathi, even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest.
Furthermore, this Research Report is prepared for private circulation and use only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation
and the specific financial needs or objectives of any specific person who may receive this Research Report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the
appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this Research Report, and, should understand that
statements regarding future prospects may or may not be realized, and we can not guarantee the same as analysis and valuation is a tool to enable investors to
make investment decisions but, is not an exact and/or a precise science. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that
each security's price or value may rise or fall. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Foreign currency rates of exchange may
adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investments mentioned in this report.
Consumer Durables
India I Equities
Company Update
Change in Estimates Target Reco
4 December 2014
Bajaj Electricals
Rating: Sell
Target Price: `225
Share Price: `220
Sales (`m)
FY13
FY14
FY15e
FY16e
FY17e
33,773
40,298
45,088
52,186
59,920
314
(53)
605
1,269
1,493
EPS (`)
3.2
(0.5)
6.1
12.7
15.0
109.6
17.6
PE (x)
69.7
(412.8)
36.2
17.3
14.7
PBV (x)
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.6
2.3
RoE (%)
7.2
(0.7)
8.4
16.3
16.9
RoCE (%)
10.8
5.9
16.0
22.9
23.9
0.9
0.7
1.4
1.4
1.4
11.0
31.4
49.3
45.3
46.4
Growth (%)
Sep14 Jun14
Promoters
- of which, Pledged
Free Float
- Foreign Institutions
- Domestic Institutions
- Public
65.6
34.4
14.0
6.0
14.3
Mar14
65.9
34.1
16.2
3.8
13.9
66.1
33.9
14.6
3.8
15.4
FY15e
FY16e
Sales
EBITDA
EPS
(4.4)
(30.9)
(55.3)
(5.0)
(9.2)
(23.4)
BJE
350
300
250
200
Sensex
Dec-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
May-14
150
Mar-14
Our take. We slash our FY15e/FY16e earnings because of the lower sales
and the EBITDA-margin decline. We expect earnings growth to pick up in
`
FY16 and FY17 because of more profitable orders in hand (in E&P). The
company plans capex of ~`400m on R&D in FY15. We have introduced
estimates for FY17. Due to the subdued performance, we maintain our Sell
on the stock. Assigning a PE of 15x to FY17e earnings, we arrive at a target
of `225. Risks. Better performance of the E&P division, greater demand for
electrical appliances.
`385 / `160
28265 /8445
US$0.5m
`22.3bn / US$0.36bn
99.9m
Jan-14
BJE IN / BJEL.BO
Feb-14
Key data
Dec-13
Source: Bloomberg
Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter ARSSBL) is a full service brokerage and equities research firm and the views expressed therein are solely of
ARSSBL and not of the companies which have been covered in the Research Report. This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient and is to be circulated only within
India and to no countries outside India. Disclosures and analyst certifications are present in Appendix.
Anand Rathi Research
India Equities
4 December 2014
FY13
Net sales
Sales growth (%)
- Oper. expenses
EBIDTA
EBITDA margins (%)
- Interest
- Depreciation
+ Other income
- Tax
Effective tax rate (%)
Reported PAT
+/- Extraordinary items
Adjusted PAT
Adj. FDEPS (`/sh)
Adj. FDEPS growth (%)
DPS (`/sh)
33,773
9.0
32,665
1,109
3.3
690
145
168
178
25.8
512
198
314
3.2
(73.3)
2.00
FY14
FY15e
FY16e
FY17e
40,298
45,088
19.3
11.9
39,480
42,937
818
2,151
2.0
4.8
783
1,100
248
330
153
169
(7)
285
10.9
32.0
(53)
605
(53)
605
(0.5)
6.1
(116.9) (1,240.2)
1.50
3.00
52,186
15.7
48,846
3,340
6.4
1,293
367
186
597
32.0
1,269
1,269
12.7
109.6
3.00
59,920
14.8
56,085
3,835
6.4
1,449
396
205
702
32.0
1,493
1,493
15.0
17.6
3.00
Year-end: Mar
Share capital
Reserves & surplus
Shareholders fund
Debt
Deferred Tax Liab (net)
Minority interests
Capital employed
Net Fixed assets
Investments
Working capital
Cash
Capital deployed
Net Debt
Net Debt/Equity (%)
W C turn (days)
Book value (`/sh)
FY13
FY14
FY15e
FY16e
FY17e
200
7,087
7,286
1,600
8,887
2,323
298
5,686
501
8,887
1,099.5
11.0
63
73.2
200
6,891
7,091
3,447
10,543
2,518
673
6,554
544
10,543
2,902.6
31.4
55
71.3
200
7,147
7,347
4,947
12,293
2,688
673
8,029
649
12,293
4,297.5
49.3
59
73.8
200
8,066
8,266
5,447
13,713
2,721
673
9,034
1,031
13,713
4,415.5
45.3
60
83.1
200
9,209
9,409
5,697
15,106
2,625
673
10,896
658
15,106
5,039.0
46.4
61
94.6
FY13
FY14
FY15e
FY16e
FY17e
Year-end: Mar
PAT
+ Non-cash Items
Cash profit
- Incr./(Decr.) in WC
Operating cash-flow
- Capex
Free cash-flow
- Dividend
+ Equity raised
+ Debt raised
- Investments
- Misc. items
Net cash-flow
+ Opening cash
Closing cash
512
85
597
(358)
955
601
354
233
9
(311)
(143)
(3)
(35)
536
501
(53)
74
20
868
(848)
442
(1,290)
175
37
1,846
376
43
501
544
605
330
935
1,475
(540)
500
(1,040)
350
(5)
1,500
105
544
649
1,269
367
1,636
1,005
632
400
232
350
0
500
382
649
1,031
1,493
396
1,889
1,862
26
300
(274)
350
(0)
250
(373)
1,031
658
P/E (x)
P/B (x)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
RoAE (%)
RoACE (%)
Dividend yield (%)
Dividend payout (%)
Cash PE
Debt/ Equity (x)
Debtors Days
Inventory Days
Payable days
WC days
F.A Turnover(x)
FY13
FY14
FY15e
FY16e
FY17e
69.7
3.0
0.7
20.5
7.2
10.8
0.9
45.5
33.4
0.22
110.6
42.0
149.3
63.4
14.5
(412.8)
3.1
0.6
29.5
(0.7)
5.9
0.7
(329.3)
112.8
0.49
98.8
39.3
156.0
55.4
16.0
36.2
3.0
0.6
11.9
8.4
16.0
1.4
57.8
23.4
0.67
111.2
38.0
175.0
59.0
16.8
17.3
2.6
0.5
7.7
16.3
22.9
1.4
27.6
13.4
0.66
109.3
37.0
172.0
59.7
19.2
14.7
2.3
0.4
6.9
16.9
23.9
1.4
23.4
11.6
0.61
109.4
37.0
173.0
60.7
22.8
Fig 5 PE band
(`)
400
Lighting &
Luminaires
24%
350
BJE
300
250
20x
200
Consumer
Durables (Incl.
Fans)
47%
16x
150
12x
100
8x
50
4x
Engineering &
Projects
29%
Nov-14
May-14
Nov-13
May-13
Nov-12
May-12
Nov-11
May-11
Nov-10
May-10
Nov-09
May-09
Nov-08
-50
Source: Company
4 December 2014
2QFY14
2QFY15
% var (yoy)
1QFY15
% var (qoq)
9,602
10,295
7.2
8,876
16.0
10,823
(4.9)
(16)
98
718.2
369
(73.3)
588
(83.3)
PBT
(231)
(203)
12.1
76
(366.8)
300
(167.7)
Adj. PAT
(154)
(142)
7.7
56
(352.4)
201
(170.7)
Sales
EBIDTA
Source: Company.
Bajaj Electricals 2QFY15 revenue rose 7.2% yoy to `10.3bn (`9.6bn a year
ago) following 32.5% revenue growth in its E&P division. The EBIDTA
margin was 1% (-0.2% a year ago). Despite the revenue growth in the E&P
division, the 2QFY15 EBIT loss came at `281m (`433m in 2QFY14). In
2QFY15 the company reported a net loss of `142m, chiefly because of the
lighting divisions lower margins. Capital employed was `12.1bn (`9.7bn last
year). Management had guided to reducing capital employed in the E&P
division as well as improving the margin there in FY15 since many old and
sticky projects have been executed and new orders have been received.
Segment-wise performance
Fig 8 Segment-wise revenue (` m)
1HFY15
% var
2QFY14
2,509
2,260
(10.0)
1,686
34.0
4,083
3,946
(3.4)
Consumer Durables
4,539
4,657
2.6
5,046
(7.7)
8,906
9,703
9.0
2,545
3,373
32.5
2,142
57.4
4,438
5,515
24.3
Source: Company
7.6
2.8
(479)bps
1.5
137bps
6.6
8.5
6.0
(254)bps
6.9
(89)bps
8.9
(17.0)
(8.3)
868bps
(2.8)
(557)bps
(15.6)
1HFY15
% var
2.3 (431)bps
6.4 (243)bps
(6.2)
942bps
Source: Company
Other Highlights
It recruited 250 people in the last six months to execute the new
projects; this has increased fixed costs by ~`40m.
4 December 2014
(`m)
(%)
3,000
60
300
12
2,500
45
250
10
200
2,000
30
150
1,500
15
100
1,000
50
-15
Revenue
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
500
EBIT
Growth (RHS)
Source: Company
Source: Company
(`m)
(%)
(`m)
(%)
5,500
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
700
15.0
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
13.0
500
Revenue
12.0
11.0
400
10.0
300
9.0
200
8.0
100
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
1,500
14.0
600
7.0
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
5,000
Growth (RHS)
EBIT
Source: Company
Source: Company
(`m)
(%)
(`m)
(%)
4,500
100
15
4,000
80
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
60
3,000
40
2,500
20
2,000
1,500
-20
500
-40
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
1,000
Revenue
Source: Company
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3,500
Growth (RHS)
EBIT
Source: Company
4 December 2014
Valuation
Fig 16 Change in estimates
FY15
Year end : Mar
FY16
New
Old
% Chg
New
Old
% Chg
Net Sales (` m)
45,088
47,184
(4.4)
52,186
54,909
(5.0)
EBIDTA (` m)
2,151
3,114
(30.9)
3,340
3,679
(9.2)
4.8
6.6
(183)bps
6.4
6.7
(30) bps
Adj. PAT (` m)
605
1,356
(55.3)
1,269
1,650
(23.1)
Appendix
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this Research Report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the
compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research
analyst(s) in this report. The research analysts are bound by stringent internal regulations and also legal and statutory requirements of the Securities and Exchange
Board of India (hereinafter SEBI) and the analysts compensation are completely delinked from all the other companies and/or entities of Anand Rathi, and have
no bearing whatsoever on any recommendation that they have given in the Research Report.
Important Disclosures on subject companies
Rating and Target Price History (as of 1 December 2014)
410
Bajaj Electrical
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
360
310
9
260
2
210
160
110
6
3 4
8
7
Date
Rating
22-Dec-11
Buy
29-May-12
Sell
30-Jul-12
Sell
20-Sep-12
Sell
10-Apr-13
Sell
10-Jul-13
Sell
13-Aug-13
Sell
12-Feb-14 Hold
30-May-14
Sell
TP
(`)
193
180
171
174
177
165
163
242
249
Share
Price (`)
136
197
173
191
168
174
159
232
319
60
Nov-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
10
The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of Anand Rathi Research have received compensation based
upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors, firm revenues and overall investment banking
revenues.
Anand Rathi Ratings Definitions
Analysts ratings and the corresponding expected returns take into account our definitions of Large Caps (>US$1bn) and Mid/Small Caps (<US$1bn) as described
in the Ratings Table below:
Ratings Guide
Large Caps (>US$1bn)
Mid/Small Caps (<US$1bn)
Buy
>15%
>25%
Hold
5-15%
5-25%
Sell
<5%
<5%
Hold
27%
0%
Sell
13%
0%
Other Disclosures
This report has been issued by ARSSBL which is a SEBI regulated entity, and which is in full compliance with all rules and regulations as are applicable to its
functioning and governance. The investors should note that ARSSBL is one of the companies comprising within ANAND RATHI group, and ANAND RATHI as a
group consists of various companies which may include (but is not limited to) its subsidiaries, its affiliates, its group companies who may hold positions, views,
stakes and may service the companies covered in this report independent of ARSSBL. Investors are cautioned to be aware that there could arise a potential
conflict of interest in the views held by ARSSBL and other companies of Anand Rathi who maybe affiliated, connected or catering to the companies mentioned in
the Research Report; even though, ARSSBL and Anand Rathi are fully complaint with all procedural and operational regulatory requirements. Thus, investors
should not use this as a sole basis for making their investment decision and should consider the recommendations mentioned in the Research Report bearing in
mind the aforementioned.
Further, the information herein has been obtained from various sources which we believe is reliable, and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures
or other derivatives related to such securities (hereinafter referred to as Related Investments). ARSSBL and/or Anand Rathi may trade for their own accounts as
market maker / jobber and/or arbitrageur in any securities of the companies mentioned in the Research Report or in related investments, and may be on taking a
different position from the ones which haven been taken by the public orders. ARSSBL and/or Anand Rathi and its affiliates, directors, officers, and employees may
have a long or short position in any securities of the companies mentioned in the Research Report or in Related Investments. ARSSBL and/or Anand Rathi, may
from time to time, perform investment banking, investment management, financial advisory or any other services not explicitly mentioned herein, or solicit
investment banking or other business from, any entity and/or company mentioned in this Research Report; however, the same shall have no bearing whatsoever
on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the other
companies of Anand Rathi, even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest.
Furthermore, this Research Report is prepared for private circulation and use only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation
and the specific financial needs or objectives of any specific person who may receive this Research Report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the
appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this Research Report, and, should understand that
statements regarding future prospects may or may not be realized, and we can not guarantee the same as analysis and valuation is a tool to enable investors to
make investment decisions but, is not an exact and/or a precise science. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that
each security's price or value may rise or fall. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Foreign currency rates of exchange may
adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investments mentioned in this report.
Appendix
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this Research Report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the research
analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. The research analysts are bound by
stringent internal regulations and also legal and statutory requirements of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (hereinafter SEBI) and the analysts compensation are completely
delinked from all the other companies and/or entities of Anand Rathi, and have no bearing whatsoever on any recommendation that they have given in the Research Report.
The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of Anand Rathi Research have received compensation based upon various factors,
including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors, firm revenues and overall investment banking revenues.
Anand Rathi Ratings Definitions
Analysts ratings and the corresponding expected returns take into account our definitions of Large Caps (>US$1bn) and Mid/Small Caps (<US$1bn) as described in the Ratings Table
below:
Ratings Guide
Large Caps (>US$1bn)
Mid/Small Caps (<US$1bn)
Buy
>15%
>25%
Hold
5-15%
5-25%
Sell
<5%
<5%
Hold
27%
0%
Sell
13%
0%
Other Disclosures
This report has been issued by ARSSBL which is a SEBI regulated entity, and which is in full compliance with all rules and regulations as are applicable to its functioning and governance.
The investors should note that ARSSBL is one of the companies comprising within ANAND RATHI group, and ANAND RATHI as a group consists of various companies which may
include (but is not limited to) its subsidiaries, its affiliates, its group companies who may hold positions, views, stakes and may service the companies covered in this report independent of
ARSSBL. Investors are cautioned to be aware that there could arise a potential conflict of interest in the views held by ARSSBL and other companies of Anand Rathi who maybe affiliated,
connected or catering to the companies mentioned in the Research Report; even though, ARSSBL and Anand Rathi are fully complaint with all procedural and operational regulatory
requirements. Thus, investors should not use this as a sole basis for making their investment decision and should consider the recommendations mentioned in the Research Report
bearing in mind the aforementioned.
Further, the information herein has been obtained from various sources which we believe is reliable, and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor
any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities
(hereinafter referred to as Related Investments). ARSSBL and/or Anand Rathi may trade for their own accounts as market maker / jobber and/or arbitrageur in any securities of the
companies mentioned in the Research Report or in related investments, and may be on taking a different position from the ones which haven been taken by the public orders. ARSSBL
and/or Anand Rathi and its affiliates, directors, officers, and employees may have a long or short position in any securities of the companies mentioned in the Research Report or in
Related Investments. ARSSBL and/or Anand Rathi, may from time to time, perform investment banking, investment management, financial advisory or any other services not explicitly
mentioned herein, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any entity and/or company mentioned in this Research Report; however, the same shall have no bearing
whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the other companies of
Anand Rathi, even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest.
Furthermore, this Research Report is prepared for private circulation and use only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the specific
financial needs or objectives of any specific person who may receive this Research Report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any
securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this Research Report, and, should understand that statements regarding future prospects may or may not be realized,
and we can not guarantee the same as analysis and valuation is a tool to enable investors to make investment decisions but, is not an exact and/or a precise science. Investors should
note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security's price or value may rise or fall. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investments mentioned in this report.
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