Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
I
Introduction
II
Trends and Pattern of Production
4043
25.0
25
22.8
20
15
III
Sources and Determinants of Growth
in Rice Production
The growth in the production of rice that has occurred during
the past two decades was realised through improvement in yield.
Intensification of the use of modern inputs played a key role in
increased production. The land resources allocated to rice actually
declined over time, particularly during the 1990s and early 2000s.
Between 1975-77 and 19992001, production doubled, yield has
more than doubled, but land area under rice has declined from
25 million acres to 22.8 million acres (see the figure).2 Technological progress occurred not only against the background of
a falling land area under rice but also of a declining real price
of rice and rising labour cost of production.3
Agricultural technology: Irrigation-based seed-fertiliser technology constituted the foundation for growth in rice production in
Bangladesh. HYV seeds, irrigation, and fertilisers were the three
critical elements of the technology package. All technological
indicators demonstrate a robust progress in the diffusion of
modern technology (see the figure ). Irrigation is now provided
to half of the land under rice and two-thirds of the rice area is
planted with modern varieties. Fertiliser application has reached
an average level of 114 kg per acre against only 19.4 kg in the
late 1970s. According to the 1996 Census, 82.6 per cent of all
farmers use fertiliser and 71 per cent of the gross cropped area
is fertilised. Power tiller is not a directly relevant input for
increasing yield, but it is believed to have contributed to the
increase in cropping intensity and expansion of modern varieties
of rice. Increase in the cost of maintaining draft power for
cultivation and sharply increasing wage rates for agricultural
labour have motivated farmers to adopt power tillers.
The 1960s agricultural commission recommended direct public
initiatives for agricultural development. Its recommendations
included development of specific public institutions and policies
to support the spread of modern inputs in agriculture. The era
of burgeoning public intervention in agriculture thus began in
the early 1960s.
A number of key institutions, developed following the agricultural commissions report, contributed to the success in
agriculture. The Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC) was created to (a) supply chemical fertilisers and
pesticides, (b) develop small-scale irrigation systems based on
low-lift pumps and tubewells, (c) supply high-yielding seeds, and
(d) introduce mechanised cultivation in the haor (low-lying,
sparsely populated) areas. The Bangladesh Water Development
Board (BWDB), then known as Water and Power Development
Authority, was created to develop devices for large-scale irrigation,
flood control, and drainage. A system of 13 research institutes,
4044
12.3
10
5
490
1120
0
1
2
Production
2
Area
Panel B
70
67
2
Yield
Kg/acre
120
113.9
60
100
51
50
80
45
40
60
30
40
20
13
12
19.4
10
20
small
0
0
1 2
1 2
1 2
Proportion Proportion Proportion of
of HYV area of irrigated land cultivated
(per cent)
rice area by power tiller
(per cent)
(per cent)
1 2
Fertiliser
(kg/acre)
September 4, 2004
charges were nominal, but over time farmers had to bear most
of the operation costs. This small-scale, mechanised irrigation
under public initiative could cover only about 5 per cent (out
of 15 per cent total land under irrigation) by 1985. The largescale irrigation and water control development (undertaken by
WDB) has not, even today, covered more than 2 per cent of total
irrigated area, even though such projects received the bulk of
the public funds for agriculture and rural development [Public
Expenditure Review, Ahmed 2002]. Such projects are located
mostly in the central, north-eastern, and coastal districts; as a result,
modern agricultural technology still remains in a rudimentary
Table 1: Production of Rice and Wheat, 1980/812001/02
(Production in 000 tonnes, Population in Millions)
Years
1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/2000
2000/01
2001/02
Growth rate (per cent)
1980/812001/02
Growth rate
1989/902001/02
Rice
Wheat
13,880
13,629
14,215
14,509
14,623
15,038
15,406
15,413
15,544
17,856
17,852
18,252
18,341
18,041
16,833
17,687
18,882
18,862
19,905
23,067
25,086
26,032
1,092
967
1,095
1,211
1,464
1,042
1,091
1,048
1,021
890
1,004
1,065
1,176
1,131
1,245
1,369
1,454
1,803
1,908
1,840
1,673
1,850
14,972
14,596
15,310
15,720
16,087
16,080
16,497
16,461
16,565
18,746
18,856
19,317
19,519
19,172
18,078
19,056
20,336
20,665
21,813
24,907
26,759
27,882
92.7
93.4
92.9
92.3
90.9
93.5
93.4
93.6
93.8
93.5
94.7
94.5
94.0
94.1
93.1
92.8
92.9
91.3
91.3
92.6
93.7
93.4
89.9
91.9
93.9
96.0
98.1
100.3
102.5
104.7
106.8
108.9
111.0
113.0
115.0
117.0
119.0
121.0
123.0
125.0
127.0
129.0
131.0
133.0
166.5
158.8
163.0
163.8
164.0
160.3
161.0
157.2
155.1
172.1
169.9
170.9
169.7
163.9
151.9
157.5
165.3
165.3
171.8
193.1
204.3
209.6
3.0
3.2
3.0
1.1
3.1
6.1
3.3
1.6
Time
Remark
1978-83
1982-83
1982-84
1987
1992
1995
1980-82
1983-85
1988
1989
1989
1990
1997
Vigorous response
Modest response
New private seed farms and nurseries are mushrooming
4045
Boro
Aus
Mala (BR-2)
Boro
Aus
Biplab (BR-3)
Boro
Aus
Brishail (BR-4)*
Aman
Aman
Dolabhog (BR-5)*
Aman
BR-6
Boro
Aus
Bri Balam (BR-7)
Boro
Aus
Asha (BR-8)
Boro
Aus
Suphaja (BR-9)
Boro
Aus
Progoti (BR-10)
Aman
Mukta (BR-11)
Aman
Moyna (BR-12)
Boro
Aus
Gazi (BR-14)
Boro
Aus
Mohini (BR-15)
Boro
Aus
Shahi Balam (BR-16) Boro
Aus
Hashi (BR-17)
Boro
Shahjalal (BR-18)
Boro
Mangal (BR-19)
Boro
Niamat (BR-21)
Aus
Kiron (BR-22)
Aman
Dishari (BR-23)
Aman
Naya Pajam (BR-25) Aman
Shraboni (BR-26)
Aus
BR-27
Aus
BR-28
Boro
BR-29
Boro
BR-30 to BR-34
Aman
BR-35, BR-36
Boro
BR-37 to BR-39
Aman
Yield
(tonnes/
acres)
150
coarse
1.5
120
short
1.1
160
medium
1.5
125
fine, white
1.1
170
medium
1.8
130
coarse, white
1.1
145
coarse, white
1.1
145
medium, coarse 1.4
150
small, aromatic 0.85
140
long, fine
1.2
110
1.0
155
long, fine
1.2
130
160
medium
1.6
125
coarse
1.4
155
long
1.6
120
medium
1.4
150
medium, fine
1.8
145
medium, coarse 1.8
170
medium
1.5
130
coarse
1.2
160
medium
1.6
120
coarse
1.4
165
medium
1.5
125
fine
1.4
165
long fine
1.6
130
1.4
155
medium
1.7
170
coarse
1.6
170
medium
1.7
110
coarse
0.8
150
short, coarse
1.4
150
long, fine
1.5
135
short, coarse
1.2
115
fine, long
1.1
115
medium
1.1
140
coarse
1.4
160
medium, fine
2.1
120-145 medium
1.4
140-155 short ,coarse
1.4
122-140 fine
1.4
Note: * photo-sensitive.
Source: BRRI (2000), Dhaner Chash, Gazipur, Bangladesh.
4046
Year
of
Release
1970
1971
1975
1975
1976
1977
1977
1978
1978
1980
1980
1983
1983
1983
1983
1985
1985
1985
1986
1988
1988
1992
1993
1994
1994
1994
1994-95
1998
1998
The Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), in collaboration with the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), has
been very successful in developing varieties of rice that yield
about double the rate of local varieties and suit different
agroclimatic zones, except coastal areas (Table 3). The farmers
of Bangladesh are growing these varieties in two-thirds of the
countrys rice areas.
Beside these varieties, application of chemical fertilisers, irrigation water, plant protection measures, and improved cultural
practices has raised total factor productivity in rice cultivation.
The question is how to demonstrate objectively a measure of
contribution of research and technology.
Economists have attempted to measure this contribution through
estimation of total factor productivity (TFP), which is defined
as a residual after deducting the factor costs from product revenue
[Solow 1957]. This approach is controversial [see Felipe (1999)
and Fagerberg (1994) for the nature of controversies]. However,
September 4, 2004
showed that small farmers sell 56 per cent of their gross production
compared with 66 per cent by large farmers [HES survey 1995/
96, IFPRI 1993]. Obviously, small farmers have become more
commercial now than in the past, selling as well as buying rice
as a business proposition as opposed to subsistence considerations.
In the 1960s generally and in remote areas even in recent
years interlinked markets of credit and rice were thriving in
an exploitative relation. Traders used to advance credit at sowing
time on the promise of delivery of rice by farmers at harvest time.
The terms were so exploitative that farmers received a price much
lower than the market price. These linkages of credit and paddy
markets have evaporated where infrastructural development has
progressed, as has happened in most areas of Bangladesh [Murshid
1999].
Market integration: Economists consider the test of market
integration as a reliable evidence of competitiveness and efficiency in marketing. In a system of spatially integrated markets,
any shock in one place will immediately be transmitted to other
places, creating forces for adjustment in all markets even though
the shock originated in one place. Similar truth would prevail
in an inter-temporal integration of markets. Through a serious
modelling exercise with rice prices during the 1980s, Goletti
(1994) demonstrated that the rice market of Bangladesh was
moderately integrated. Prices in some remote areas were still not
reacting sufficiently to changes in central markets. In 1998,
another study by Baulch et al (1998) shows that wholesale
markets for both rice and wheat are spatially integrated, with over
80 per cent of price changes transmitted between pairs of markets
within two weeks. Marketing cost per mile per tonne has declined
sharply. In the past, transport cost within a small area of market
was as high as transport costs now from one end of the country
to another. Therefore, if a comparison of a per tonne transportation cost now is found equal to the past transportation cost
within a fragmented market, it should not be wrongly concluded
that cost has not declined. This decline would be detected only
when cost per tonne is normalised for distance and then compared.
Condition for market entry: The rapid development of rice trade
with India as soon as the market was liberalised in 1994 is a
testimony to the ease of entry in market [Murshid 2001]. One
significant hurdle to entry into the market is credit. The credit
hurdle to entry into the wholesale market is particularly serious.
However, without real-world experience in trade, it may not be
possible for a party to begin wholesale trade in rice only because
he has access to capital. Upward movement is the normal route
rather than lateral entry. This process makes the credit constraint
less of an absolute constraint.
Table 4: Annual Growth Rates in Rice Revenue, Input Costs,
and Total Factor Productivity
Items
Based on current prices
Value of output (revenue)
Value of input costs
TFP
Based on constant prices
prices*
Value of output
Value of input costs
TFP
1975-76 to
1986-87
1987-88 to
1997-98
1975-76 to
1997-98
10.71
9.52
1.19
3.72
2.86
0.86
7.22
6.19
1.03
2.91
2.12
0.79
4.02
2.65
1.37
3.51
2.41
1.10
4047
IV
Agricultural Diversification and Comparative
Advantage of Rice
Nowadays agricultural diversification is a topical issue in
policies for agricultural development. Theoretical rationales for
diversification are founded as a protection against risk. However,
self-sufficiency in staple production is often pursued to avoid
food insecurity. Should Bangladesh continue to strive for rice
self-sufficiency or a surplus, even if it can accelerate overall farm
income and agricultural growth by producing more high-value
agricultural products than rice?
The answer to this question warrants a correct assessment of
the comparative advantage of rice vis--vis other agricultural
products. At least three recent studies have examined the comparative advantage of various crops in Bangladesh agriculture
[Mahmud et al 1994, Goletti 1994; Shahabuddin 2000]. Before
the results of these studies are discussed, a few cautionary notes
should be sounded regarding empirical studies of comparative
advantage. The concept of comparative advantage is simple, but
the difficulties of using it as a guide for real-world decisions
are enormous, mainly because of the dynamic environment,
difficulties with analysis at the margin in place of at the average,
and the problem of appropriate opportunity cost. In a dynamic
world, particularly with dynamism of agricultural technology, it
is hard to be certain about the superiority of one crop over another
within a long-term context. Similarly, finding the exact opportunity cost of not growing a crop in favour of another is difficult.
Because of these problems, a role for judgment, based on
strong hunches, remains wide open. Furthermore, that time has
a cost is seldom taken into account in comparison of crops. For
example, when the economic profitability of rice is compared
with that of sugar cane, the fact that time taken in growing sugar
cane is twice the duration of growing rice is not factored in the
analysis. Two rice crops can be harvested from the land during
the time taken for harvesting a sugar cane crop. With
these cautionary notes, let us now look at the results of studies
mentioned here.
The results are presented in Table 7. This is a summary table
that includes results in an abridged form. Net financial return
is calculated by valuing output and input at actual market prices.
Net economic return is calculated with output and tradable input
valued at world prices. In this case, import parity or export parity
world prices are used based on the judgment of whether the
product is exportable or importable. Domestic resource cost
(DRC) bears the usual meaning, indicating how much domestic
resource cost is involved in earning a dollar. A DRC of 0.60
4048
Foodgrains
Net production/capita (kg)
146.4
Total supply/capita (kg)
159.0
Share of production in supply (per cent)
92.1
Proportion of private market supply
in total supply (per cent)
87.8
Food gap1 (per cent)
+11.6
2
Consumption/capita (kg)
159.0
Consumption/capita3 (kg)
166.7
(Household Expenditure Survey)
(1981/82)
Rice
Net production/capita (kg)
136.2
Total supply/capita (kg)
135.4
Share of production in supply (per cent) 100.0
Proportion of private market
supply (per cent)
96.3
Food gap1 (per cent)
+12.8
Consumption/capita2 (kg)
135.4
Consumption/capita3 (kg)
145.3
(Household Expenditure Survey)
(1981/82)
Wheat
Net production/capita (kg)
10.3
Total supply/capita (kg)
23.6
Share of production in supply (per cent)
43.6
Proportion of private market
supply (per cent)
39.0
Food gap1 (per cent)
+12.6
Consumption/capita2 (kg)
23.6
Consumption/capita3 (kg)
21.4
(Household Surveys)
Average
1991-92 to 1999-2000 to
1992-93
2000-01
153.3
165.8
92.5
178.8
194.4
92.0
91.8
92.5
+7.5
6.9
165.8
194.4
185.8
179.0
(1991/92) (1999/2000)
142.5
144.8
98.4
164.1
169.6
96.8
97.1
95.9
+6.4
8.2
144.5
169.6
172.6
168.6
(1991/92) (1999/2000)
8.9
21.6
41.2
12.2
24.8
49.1
52.7
+24.1
21.6
13.2
69.2
+3.9
12.2
10.4
23
77
601
107
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
September 4, 2004
production (say, B). A and B compete for resources and the one
with lower DRC wins the competition. It is, therefore, necessary
to ensure that the products are competing with one another.
A number of specific conclusions can be drawn from the results
presented in Table 7, without serious risk of going wrong because
of inherent uncertainty:
In case of rice, aman (except broadcast aman) varieties do have
superiority over boro and aus, but rice crops of the three seasons
Table 7: Financial and Economic Profitability, and Domestic
Resource Costs of Crops,1996/971998/99
Crop
Rice
Boro HYV
Boro local
Aman
HYV
HYV
HYV
Pajam
Local
Local
Technique
Net
Financial
Return
(tk/ha)
irrigated
irrigated
7,299
3,953
18,172
9,245
7,254
3,758
0.70
0.93
1.12
1.40
irrigated
9,782
rainfed
11,216
all
10,459
all
8,528
transplanted
rainfed
4,250
broadcast
rainfed
2,735
19,682
20,490
19,970
17,413
9,090
10,069
9,644
7,863
0.62
0.59
0.61
0.67
0.96
0.91
0.93
1.03
10,105
4,003
1.04
1.57
7,374
2,583
1.55
1.40
14,325
25,150
0.61
5,494
3,831
3,410
13,918
10,638
10,763
5,308
3,710
3,428
0.73
0.81
0.82
1.13
1.27
1.30
2,819
3,254
2,804
18,665
11,391
6,466
6,101
16,886
11,140
92,425
0.90
0.91
0.55
0.69
0.20
44,081
25,726
25,726
4,235
1,361
3,542
33,323
18,575
5,795
2,747
6,463
597
0.81
1.11
2.14
3.20
3.9
1.91
9,715
(H) 0.43
(L) 0.54
(H) 0.44
(L) 0.55
1.64
0.57
86,322
0.25
Aromatic
fine1
rainfed
Aus
HYV
irrigated
HYV
rainfed
HYV
all
Non-rice crops
Wheat
irrigated
Wheat
non-irrigated
Jute (tossa) rainfed
Cotton
rainfed
Tobacco
irrigated
Sugar cane
Sugar
modern
irrigated
Sugar
non-irrigated
Gur-making non-irrigated
Mustard oil non-irrigated
Sesame oil non-irrigated
Linseed oil non-irrigated
Masur
(pulse)
non-irrigated
Gram
non-irrigated
Chili (dry)
Onion
non-irrigated
traditional
non-irrigated 97,482
HYV potato
Fresh
Fresh
Chilled
Local potato
(fresh)
Brinjal
Brinjal
Radish
Cucumber
Beans
Tomato
Cabbage
Note:
Net Economic
Domestic Resource
Return (tk/ha)
(DRC)
Cost
Import
Export
Import
Export
Parity
Parity
Parity
Parity
7,826
0.56
irrigated
rainfed
irrigated
52,636
49,036
49,140
194,815
183,469
120,926
29,130
26,701
0.17
0.18
0.31
0.61
0.63
rainfed
modern
irrigated
non-irrigated
non-irrigated
traditional
traditional
modern
modern
12,388
71,876
3,944
0.32
0.56
322,014
239,561
351,669
194,865
207,248
553,940
498,056
0.10
0.11
0.07
0.11
0.12
0.05
0.05
53,206
39,666
13,572
26,213
27,177
93,730
42,638
prices.
Source: Shahabuddin and Dorosh (2002).
hardly compete with one another. Boro competes with wheat and
it has a comparative advantage over wheat. In general, importsubstitution strategy for rice that governments have been following for long, does seem to have solid economic foundations. Rice
does not fare well when considered for export, except for fine,
aromatic varieties, which have substantial comparative advantage
in terms of DRC. When these fine varieties are examined through
world price and in competition with basmati and jasmine rice,
their export potential is vindicated reasonably well [Goletti 1994].
The large gap in import parity and export parity prices warrants
a further examination. Is it because of quality differences or lack
of rigorous grades and standards?
Bangladesh seems to enjoy a fabulous comparative advantage
in case of vegetables. It has a remarkable comparative advantage
in case of jute (tossa), tobacco, and potato. Although production of vegetables and potato has been growing the fastest
among crops, jute and tobacco production is stagnant. Entry
into world market of vegetables and internal management
problems as well as competition from synthetics in case of jute,
have prevented the apparent comparative advantage to translate
into reality.
In general, sugar cane also appears to have no comparative
advantage, even though the absolute amount of financial return
is large. It should be borne in mind that a sugar cane crop should
be compared with the sum of two rice crops; this normalisation
for time makes the case of sugar cane further weak.
Like sugar cane, edible oils from oilseeds do not have comparative advantage in the crop sector of Bangladesh. Growing
something else and importing cheap edible oils from world
market would seem to be a rational policy.
Pulses do have some comparative strengths particularly as
import-substitution activity. Recently, pulses have gained some
strength through adoption of improved varieties. This has caused
some growth in production of pulses in recent years.
The picture of comparative advantage presented here reflects
the existing technology. Technological innovation has been
significant in cereal production; non-cereal crops have not got
similar public research investment. As the country strives for
diversification, larger flows of research innovation, including
import of technology, should be a strategic new direction of
public policy.
V
Future of Rice in Bangladesh
The discussion on the future prospects for rice can best be
conducted in the context of projections. Projections of the future
are generally based on past experiences of demand-and-supply
forces, and making a judgment as to how these forces will shape
up in the future. Such exercises are inherently speculative but
nevertheless educative in guiding policies.
On technical potential of production, a study conducted by the
World Bank in 1998 examined specific technical actions needed
to increase rice production. Excluding hybrid rice and super rice,
the remaining feasible options were simulated for probable area
under each of the actions. Then a weighted average (using
proportions of areas as weights) increase in production was
estimated [Ahmed 2001]. This estimation implies an increase of
44 per cent in production between 1997/98 and 2010, which
translates into an annual growth of 3.2 per cent in rice production.
In terms of policies, these actions would mean a continuation
4049
of the current technological thrust with increased focus on slowgrowing districts, as well as research.
On the consumption potential for rice, its already high level
in Bangladesh diet limits the scope for expansion. About 76 per
cent of the calorific value in the diet is derived from rice.
Bangladesh has the distinction of sharing with Mynamar the
status of highest per capita rice consumption in the world [Pingali
et al 1997]. Already, the income elasticity of demand for rice
has approached zero (positive for the poor and negative for the
rich). Diet diversification, urbanisation, and increase in per capita
income have been contributing to sluggish growth in per capita
rice consumption. Analysis of household expenditures shows
that, adjusting for differences in income and prices between urban
and rural consumers, rural consumption levels still remain 16
per cent higher than urban consumers [Ahmed 2001], and
urbanisation has been increasing rapidly in Bangladesh. Household expenditure surveys from 1980/81 through 1999/2000 (such
surveys are not conducted every year) show an increasing trend
in per capita consumption during the 1980s, but a declining trend
in the 1990s (Appendix Table 3). These indicators are suggestive
of a demand for rice in the future depending primarily on population
growth. Let us now turn to some projections of rice in Bangladesh.
Two recent projections are shown in Table 8. The excess demand
column in the table gives the quantities of surplus and deficit;
the positive numbers represent deficits and the negatives represent surplus. The projection in Ahmed (2001) reflects an
increase in rice production ranging from 28.4 to 53 per cent by
2010 whereas the Dorosh et al projection reflects an increase
ranging from 19 to 46.5 per cent by 2020. Differences in projection of both production and demand between the two do appear
to reflect optimistic and pessimistic assumptions. This has resulted in a picture of demand-supply balance in the two studies,
dominated by deficit in Dorosh et al and surplus in Ahmed (2001).
The deficits occur in a price-endogenous model of Dorosh et al
through adjustment in prices. Real prices rise in the Dorosh et al
model by a rate ranging from 5 to 35 per cent in various scenarios.
Change in
Productiona
(Per Cent)
Change in
Pricea
(Per Cent)
Excess Demand
(000 tonnes)
2.77
+0.40
5.05
2.33
0.00
0.00
0.72
+1.52
+2.67
1980-81
1981-82
1982-83
1983-84
1984-85
1985-86
1986-87
1987-88
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-2000
2000-01
Net
Production
(1)
Public
Import
(2)
12,492
12,266
12,793
13,058
13,161
13,534
13,865
13,872
13,990
16,070
16,067
16,427
16,507
16,237
15,150
15,918
16,976
16,976
17,915
20,760
22,577
84
144
317
179
695
37
258
590
61
300
11
39
20
0
230
491
19
92
488
5
32
Private
Import
(3)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
74
584
650
15
993
2,660
428
529
Domestic
Procurement
(4)
841
290
168
266
133
219
138
288
366
918
723
939
233
150
247
353
513
430
616
942
1,058
Public
Open Sale
(5)
Total Public
Distribution
(6)
Market
Supply
(7)
Non-market
Supply
(8)
Total
Supply
(9)
40
35
31
25
21
10
15
5
167
16
74
274
7
172
156
404
0
163
10
0
0
514
472
496
403
399
372
495
468
690
675
971
759
476
350
329
593
687
529
530
876
949
11,691
12,011
12,656
12,817
13,049
13,325
13,742
13,589
13,791
15,168
15,418
15,762
16,281
16,333
15,643
16,619
16,478
17,702
19,969
20,246
22,048
474
437
465
378
378
362
480
463
523
659
897
485
469
178
173
189
687
366
520
876
949
12,165
12,448
13,121
13,195
13,427
13,687
14,222
14,052
14,314
15,827
16,315
16,247
16,750
16,511
15,816
16,808
17,165
18,068
20,489
21,122
22,997
Total Per
capita Supply
(10)
135.3
135.5
139.7
137.5
136.9
136.9
139.4
134.2
134.0
145.3
147.0
143.8
145.7
141.1
132.9
138.9
139.6
144.5
161.3
163.7
175.5
Sources: Computed from data in (a) Dorosh et al (2003), and (b) Ahmed et al (2000).
4050
September 4, 2004
VI
Conclusions
Bangladesh has achieved remarkable success in attaining near
self-sufficiency in rice production, a strategic staple for the
country. The growth in rice production from 1980/81 through
2001/02 has exceeded the growth in population. The increase
in rice production has occurred through intensive use of modern
technology and under the adverse conditions of falling real rice
prices, sharply rising agricultural wage rates, and declining
availability of land for cultivation. Inputs relating to seed-fertiliserirrigation technology and their productivity have been the major
source of growth. Liberalisation of the import of agricultural
equipment (shallow tubewell engines and power tillers), particularly the removal of restrictions on import conditioned by public
specification of standards, resulted in a flood of supplies of cheap
equipment. Farmers responded enthusiastically to adopt these
machines. Competition in fertiliser distribution has kept stable
supply at market price.
Liberalisation and privatisation of the input market have not
always been an unmixed blessing. Production of fertilisers is still
in the public sector and public monitoring of factory-gate
Rice
Wheat
Total
145.31
150.23
162.02
161.22
172.57
169.47
168.56
21.43
23.40
18.87
21.21
13.25
12.30
10.42
166.74
173.64
180.89
182.43
185.82
181.77
178.98
1980-81
1981-82
1982-83
1983-84
1984-85
1985-86
1986-87
1987-88
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-2000
2000-01
Net
Production
(1)
983
870
986
1,090
1,318
938
982
943
919
801
904
959
1,058
1,018
1,121
1,232
1,309
1,623
1,717
1,656
1,506
Public
Import
(2)
Private
Import
(3)
992
1,111
1,527
1,877
1,898
1,163
1,509
2,327
2,077
1,234
1,566
1,524
810
654
1,325
1,093
712
706
1,604
865
447
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
355
238
430
200
222
142
805
806
534
Domestic
Procurement
(4)
176
13
24
0
216
130
50
87
50
42
60
77
0
16
30
69
102
187
137
25
30
Public
Open Sale
(5)
0
10
0
20
0
20
25
15
125
31
14
1
65
124
70
0
0
0
4
0
0
Total Public
Distribution
(6)
1,,028
1,595
1,439
1,648
2,163
1,169
1,625
2,035
2,251
1,489
1,401
1,586
597
1,026
1,244
1,202
1,422
1,092
1,603
1,024
958
Market
Supply
(7)
807
867
962
1,110
1,102
828
957
871
994
790
858
883
1,478
1,364
1,591
1,363
1,429
1,578
2,389
2,437
2,010
Non-market
Supply
(8)
Total
Supply
(9)
1,028
1,585
1,439
1,628
2,163
1,149
1,600
2,020
2,126
1,458
1,387
1,585
532
902
1,174
1,202
1,422
1,092
1,599
1,024
958
1,835
2,452
2,401
2,738
3,265
1,977
2,557
2,891
3,120
2,248
2,245
2,468
2,010
2,266
2,765
2,565
2,851
2,670
3,988
3,461
2,968
Total Per
capita Supply
(10)
20.4
26.7
25.6
28.5
33.3
19.7
25.0
27.6
29.2
20.6
20.2
21.8
21.5
19.4
23.2
21.2
23.2
21.4
31.4
26.8
22.7
Source: Computed from data in (a) Dorosh et al (2003), and (b) Ahmed et al (2000).
4051
Notes
1 During 1989/90 through 2000/01, growth rate in rice production was 3.1
per cent and that of agriculture was 3.3 per cent per annum. Rice and
fish sub-sectors were the most dynamic in the agricultural growth of
Bangladesh.
2 In terms of annual rate of change, production increased at 3.0 per cent,
yield at 3.5 per cent, but land area under rice declined by 0.31 per cent.
3 The index of real rice price (nominal price deflated by inflation index)
declined from 100 in 1980/81 to 68.8 in 2001/02. The index of real wage
rate of agricultural labour (nominal wage deflated by nominal rice price)
increased from 100 in 1980/81 to 191.6 in 2001/02.
4 Bangladesh may rank below India, Pakistan, or Sri Lanka in terms of
rural electrification, but Bangladeshs policy of according highest priority
to electrification of rural growth centres in the rural electrification programme
was a key factor in causing rural processing and industrialisation to
develop fast.
5 At the risk of comparing the incomparable, a comparison with India is
made. The total subsidy on fertilisers, irrigation, and power supplied to
agriculture amounted to 8.72 per cent of agricultural GDP in India in
1999/2000, increasing from 2.11 per cent in 1982/83 [Gulati and Narayanan
2003]. In Bangladesh, subsidy on fertiliser and irrigation was only about
1-2 per cent of agricultural GDP in 1983/84, which declined to about
0.32 per cent in 1997/98 but increased again in 2003 to about 0.96 per
cent. The extent of subsidy to power used in Bangladesh agriculture is
unknown.
References
Ahmed, Raisuddin (1983): Agricultural Price Policies Under Natural
Constraints: The Case of Bangladesh, Research Report 12, IFPRI.
(2001): Retrospects and Prospects of the Rice Economy of Bangladesh,
University Press, Dhaka.
(2002): Public Expenditure and Rural Development, Study Report for
the Asian Development Bank, International Food Policy Research Institute
(IFPRI), Washington, DC.
Ahmed, Raisuddin, Steven Haggblade and Tawfiq-e-Elahi Chowdhury (eds)
(2000): Out of the Shadow of Famine: Evolving Food Markets and Food
Policy in Bangladesh, The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore
and London.
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics: Statistical Yearbook, various years, Dhaka.
(1996): Census of Agriculture, Dhaka.
(1983-84): Census of Agriculture.
BRRI (2000): Adhunik Dhaner Chaash (Cultivation of Modern Rice),
4052
September 4, 2004