I

PROJECT TITLE

Accurate Prediction of Safe Life of Buried Pipelines

II

AIMS AND BACKGROUND

This research will derive a new theory for the accurate prediction of the safe life of buried infrastructure, using metal
water pipes as an example. It will integrate material deterioration, soil mechanics, fracture mechanics and timedependent reliability theory into a methodology to analyse the behaviour and failure mechanisms of buried metal
pipes subjected to simultaneous internal deterioration and external loads, including environmental loads. The
proposed research will advance the knowledge in deterioration science and failure theory and provide a sustainable
solution to the intelligent management of the vast asset of buried pipelines in the world. It will bring about
economical, environmental and social benefits both nationally and internationally.
The problem
The life expectancy of buried metal pipelines, such as cast iron pipes, can exceed 100 years [1] but the average age of
failed pipes is much shorter than the estimated life expectancy. For example, the average age of failed water pipes is
only 47 years in the US and Canada [2]. It is noted that buried metal pipes are more prone to failure, defined as
collapse or burst, than ever before. Long service, coupled with aging, deterioration and damage of buried pipes,
exacerbates the situation. For example, it is reported in the UK and Canada that the failure rate of buried pipes is 39
breaks per 100 km per annum [3, 4]. The Australian National Water Commission [5] also reported that water mains
suffer from 20 breaks per 100 km per annum on average and the cost on replacement of failed pipes has increased by
10% annually since 2006.
Examples of the most recent pipe bursts that can be classified as catastrophic to the public are: (i) the sudden burst of
a 200 mm ductile iron water main in the CBD of Adelaide, resulting in chaos and heavy traffic disruption during peak
hours on 23 July 2012, and substantial financial consequences (reported in the newspaper Adelaide Now); (ii) the
sudden collapse of a 760 mm cast iron main in Cleveland, US in March 2008, which had been operating without
problems since its installation in 1880 and after cement lining in 1996 [6]; and (iii) the sudden bursting of a 686 mm
steel water main on 3 December, 2012 in Landsborough Road, Leicester, UK, which damaged about 50 properties,
closed roads for a day and resulted in the loss of water supply of 5,000 houses for several hours (reported on BBC
News).
It is apparent that pipe failures are a global problem with severe consequences and disruptions. These failures can
occur without any warning. The fact that they are buried underground makes the problem worse. The reoccurrence of
pipe failures with this nature has exposed the inadequacy and/or inaccuracy of current theories used for the prediction
of the failures of buried pipes.
One lesson from these sudden failures of buried pipes is that the first principles of pipe behaviour in its lifespan and
the mechanisms of pipe failure under multiple influencing factors need to be understood at a fundamental level, and
that the time-variant uncertain nature of both the pipe behaviour and influencing factors needs to be accounted for
more accurately. It also highlights the urgent need to develop a new theory, based on a new approach with a clear
understanding of pipe behaviour, interaction with soil, all possible failure modes and advanced predictive methods.
Without such a new approach, it is impossible to effectively prevent future unexpected failures. This is a serious
scientific challenge that demands considerable intellectual capability. The purpose of the proposed research is to
develop a new theory with such a new approach.
Various attempts have been made to develop a theory for service life prediction of buried pipes [7-16], as have been
critically reviewed by the CIs. For example, Rajani and Makar [8] developed an empirical model that relates tensile
strength of cast iron pipes with defect size and geometry through a stress intensity factor. Sadiq et al.[9] used Monte
Carlo simulation for risk assessment of cast iron water mains. Rajani and Abdel-Akher [10] used mechanistic models
and finite element method to estimate the safety factor of old cast iron pipes. Chiodo and Ruggieri [11] developed a
procedure to determine the fracture toughness of pipes with circumferential surface cracks. Moore et al.[12]
investigated the soilpipe interaction of buried cement pipes.
In Australia, numerous research projects related to buried pipes have also been carried out. For example, Moglia et
al.[13] used an empirical model to predict the failure rates of cast iron pipes. Deghan et al.[14] developed a new

nonparametric technique for failure prediction of different classes of pipes. Gould et al.[15] undertook an exploratory
statistical analysis to investigate the effect of climate on the failure rate of water pipes. Melchers [16] proposed a bimodal model to simulate the multi-phase corrosion of grey cast iron with underlying uniform corrosion and the
subsequent pitting corrosion in marine and atmospheric environments.
Preliminary studies have also been undertaken by the Lead CI Li. Mohebbi and Li (CI) [17] investigated the corrosion
of cast iron pipes and found that pipe corrosion is dominated by pitting corrosion which can change the mode of pipe
failure due to stress concentration. Li (CI) and Yang [3] then developed a method to determine the stress intensity
factor K for pipes with surface cracks and subjected to service loads. In applying fracture mechanics to reliability
analysis of buried pipes [18], Mohebbi and Li (CI) also found that soil movement can significantly affect the stress
field in the pipe. This issue will be addressed in this research.
A comprehensive survey of the published research (see VI References), including that from websites of funding
bodies, e.g., ARC, NSF (US), EPSRC (UK), NRC (Canada), suggests that for most metal pipes, e.g., cast iron pipes,
research has focused more on single failure mode, e.g., by strength, than on multiple modes of failure, e.g., by
strength or fracture. However, observations of pipe failures, either from the field or from laboratories, show that
many metal pipes, especially cast iron pipes, can fail by different modes, e.g., by fracture [10, 19], which is of brittle
nature, i.e., sudden failures as cited above.
The survey also suggests that, in investigating pipe behaviour and failures, most current research has not considered
either or both of: (i) the microbial corrosion of the pipe which causes local damage and stress concentration and may
affect the properties of pipe materials, such as fracture toughness; and (ii) the re-distribution of stress field due to soil
movement which affects the failure mode of buried pipes. In terms of approach, most current research has not used
either or both of: (iii) prototype tests on pipes buried in soil to verify theoretical models; and (iv) the advanced timedependent reliability method to account for the time-variant uncertain nature of both the contributing factors (causes),
and the behaviour and failure mode (effects) of the pipe. These are the sources of inadequacy and inaccuracy of
current theories used for predicting pipe failures and pose serious scientific challenges for the proposed research in
deriving a new theory.
The solution
The proposed research will meet these scientific challenges with original and innovative solutions that address the
problems that hinder the accurate prediction of the safe life of buried pipelines. The specific objectives of the
proposed research are as follows:
1) the development of a rational stochastic model for metal corrosion that incorporates microbial corrosion in soil
environments;
2) the investigation of the effects of soil movement caused by climate change and other environmental loads on the
stress field in buried pipes;
3) the exploration of the effects of corrosion and other chemical agents on metal properties, in particular its fracture
toughness; and
4) the derivation of a new time-dependent reliability solution to account for the time-variant uncertain nature of both
the contributing factors and the behaviour and failure mode of the pipe.
III

RESEARCH PROJECT

The Significance
Most stakeholders of pipe infrastructure, in particular, the industry and public, have recognised the severe
consequences of pipe failures and there is on-going application-focused research funded by industry, e.g., Water
Service Association of Australia and Water Research Foundation (US). However, due to the lack of innovation in the
theory used for predicting the failure of buried pipes, reoccurrence of these disasters has not been prevented. This
innovation is scientifically challenging and intellectually demanding. As such it requires a new approach and a
concerted effort from the research community to examine the fundamental science that underpins any applications.
The scientific significance of the proposed research is in advancing the knowledge of deterioration science of
materials (metal) and the failure theory of infrastructure (buried pipeline), incorporating metal corrosion, soil
mechanics, fracture mechanics, and time-dependent reliability methods as demonstrated below.

Stress is a fundamental measure of the behaviour of built infrastructure. For the example of fracture mechanics, a
stress intensity factor K is used as the measure of pipe behaviour [20]:

K (t ) = 2 r f ( , t )

(1)


where r and are geometric parameters and t is time. In determining K, the scientific challenge is accurate modelling
of local pitting corrosion since it causes damage (cracking) and hence affects the correction function f (, t). Although
corrosion of metal has been widely researched, little has been done in the proposed complex yet real environment of
soil. Furthermore, one of the important mechanisms of corrosion that is most relevant to buried pipes, microbial
corrosion, has not been considered due to the complexity of the underground environment. Another challenge is the
effect of soil movement, in particular climate change-induced fluctuation of saturation of soil since it causes stress redistribution and cyclic changes with time, and hence affects the stress field . The widely projected climate change
is also expected to create extreme storm events and changes to the underground water table by altering rainfall
patterns and sea level [21], which will lead to soil movement and resultant changes to the stress-fields exerted on
buried pipes.
The very nature of the randomness and time variance of all related factors should be taken into account in accurately
predicting failures of buried pipes. As such it is more appropriate to use a time-dependent reliability method. With
this method, the probability of pipe failure by fracture (for example) as a function of time can be expressed as
follows:

(2)

where Kc is the fracture toughness. The scientific challenge here is to derive a solution to Eq.(2) so that the timedependent reliability method can be used. However, this is extremely intellectually demanding since Eq.(2)
represents a typical outcrossing problem in reliability theory. Since Rice developed a general formula for outcrossing
problems in the 1940s [22] (known as the Rice formula) very few solutions have been derived. No analytical solution
to Eq.(2) exists when its terms and variables (e.g., K, ) are non-stationary and non-Gaussian stochastic processes as
could be the case for buried pipes.

p f (t ) = P[ K (t ) K c ]

Also in Eq.(2), the fracture toughness Kc is widely treated as constant but it has been suggested [23] that corrosion and
other chemical agents in soil can affect the fracture toughness of metal, which would make Kc time-dependent and
affect the failure mode of the pipe. Scientific evidence for, and subsequent modelling of, the effect of corrosion and
other chemical agents on fracture toughness Kc is another innovative feature of the proposed research which will
advance the knowledge in deterioration science and failure theory.
The Innovation and Originality
With the above identified knowledge gaps, the proposed research will focus on the following innovations:
1) a new model of metal corrosion that is developed from an understanding of the chemical physics in soil
environments;
2) stochastic modelling of the effects of soil movement on pipe behaviour and failure that incorporates climate
change and other environmental loads;
3) production of scientific evidence for, and stochastic modelling of, the effects of corrosion and other chemical
agents on material properties, in particular fracture toughness.
4) prototype tests on pipes buried in soil and subjected to corrosion and external loads; and
5) a new analytical solution to Eq.(2) for non-stationary non-Gaussian stochastic processes.
The research program designed to achieve these innovations is detailed in Methodology.
It is acknowledged that considerable research has been undertaken related to buried metal pipes as reviewed above
(see VI References) but this research is very different from others (whilst fully recognising their values) in the
following perspectives:
1) in its aim, i.e., to derive a new theory for the accurate prediction of the safe service life of buried pipes;
2) in its approach, i.e., to examine the fundamentals of material and structural behaviour and failure mechanisms and
consider the time-variant uncertain nature of all factors involved;

3) in its creativity, i.e., theoretical analysis coupled with a comprehensive and well planned laboratory study to
understand pipe behaviour and failure mechanisms; and
4) in its methodology, i.e., the integration of materials deterioration, soil mechanics, fracture mechanics and
reliability theory.
With these features, the originality of the proposed research is very clear.
Advancing Knowledge
With these innovations and originality, the outcomes of the proposed research will advance knowledge in the
following scientific fields:
1) Corrosion Science that will be enriched by a better understanding of the microbial corrosion of buried metals;
2) Soil Mechanics that will be supplemented with the effect of soil movement on buried infrastructure;
3) Fracture Mechanics that will be extended to the effect of corrosion and soil movement on stress intensity factor
and fracture toughness;
4) Experimental methods that will include prototype tests of pipes buried in soil with corrosion and external loads;
and
5) Reliability theory that will be enhanced with more analytical solutions to time-dependent problems.
The Methodology
To achieve the proposed aims and objectives the following work packages (WP) have been designed and integrated
with a feasible action plan, cost-effective budget and clear timeline for delivery. A combination of analytical,
numerical and experimental methods will be employed to execute the designed WPs.
WP1 Test on corrosion
Whilst there have been many studies on corrosion of metals, one important factor often missed is microbial induced
corrosion. Furthermore, the relationship between the corrosion depth/rate and pipe failure by fracture or strength has
not been well understood. Previous work [17] undertaken by CI Li and his colleagues has shown that localised or
pitting corrosion is the dominant mechanism in corrosion of cast iron pipes. It has also been observed that the
microstructure of cast iron has a significant influence on corrosion depth. It is hypothesised that this may be the
reason for the recent unexpected failures observed in water pipes. Experiments proposed here will address these gaps
in knowledge.
Based on the CIs (Li and Setunge) previous research in corrosion and their comprehensive review of research
literature, an experiment has been designed to examine the effect of the key contributing factors on corrosion and the
resultant corrosion depth: (i) pH; (ii) temperature; (iii) microstructure of the metal; (iv) presence of bacteria; (v)
chemical composition of the exposed soils; and (vi) loads applied on the buried pipes. Only external corrosion will be
investigated in this research.
Three types of metal will be selected: (i) cast iron; (ii) ductile iron; and (iii) steel, since they have diversified
mechanical and microstructure properties with different proportions of graphite, pearlite, ferrite and cementite.
Specimens used in the tests will be a section of real pipe of 150 mm in diameter (e.g., DN150) with a length of 500
mm and supported on stainless steel wedges. Corrosion will be induced in an environmental chamber simulating the
real service environment encountered underground, covering: (i) three chemical compositions of soil: sodic, sulphate
rich, and saline soils; (ii) different types of microbial, e.g., sulphate reducing bacteria, iron-oxidizing bacteria, and
contents, e.g., 104-105 cells per gram, using the approach adopted by Hasan and Setunge (CI) [24]; and (iii) tensile
stress on the pipe surface equal to the typical stresses induced by soil movement to be estimated in WP3.
Corrosion will be accelerated by increasing the concentration of the corrosive agents in the surrounding environment
at three levels: e.g., if the actual environment is pH of 6, the tests will be conducted at pH of 5, 4 and 3 so that the
corrosion at pH of 6 can be extrapolated. Similarly three levels of temperature will be used. The activity of anaerobic
bacteria in changing the pH and temperature of the environment will also be accelerated, as observed in Hasan and
Setunge (CI) [24]. Based on this experience it is estimated that significant pitting corrosion can occur in 2 years.
The number of tests will be determined by a factorial method adopted in Dignan and Li (CI) [25]. The key data
produced is the corrosion depth, which will be measured using electrochemical measurement of polarisation

resistance of the pipe length, a pitting gauge and mass loss. The tests will run until the failure of the pipes, estimated
to occur in 2 years, so that the failure mode can be observed.
Identifying and examining the main contributing factors to corrosion depth and the cause/effect relation for pipe
failure is the innovative outcome of this WP.
WP2 Development of corrosion model
The corrosion progression will be analysed and characterised, and models for corrosion depth will be developed as a
function of contributing factors and time, based on laboratory experiments. It is rational to model the corrosion effect
as a stochastic process, due to a large degree of uncertainty of both the corrosion process and its contributing factors,
and to be consistent with the advanced time-dependent reliability methods (see WP6), as follows:

c(E, t ) = cm (E, t ) c (E)

(3)

where c(E, t) is the corrosion depth on the pipe wall; the vector E is the contributing factor as identified in WP1 and
t is time. In Eq.(3), cm(E, t) is the mean value function of corrosion depth and c(E) is the variation function
accounting for all random characteristics of the corrosion process and its contributing factors. Mathematical
regression will be readily employed to derive the mean function cm(E, t) with the data produced in WP1. The
variation function c(E) will be derived from the classic theory of statistics and Monte Carlo simulation techniques.
Experience in related corrosion research [3, 17, 18, 24, 26] has shown that models based purely on collected data, without
significant theoretical inputs and understanding of the underlying corrosion science and mechanics, are unlikely to be
of much use in prediction. The model to be developed in this research will be based on corrosion science and
chemical physics observed from experiments in real world service conditions to be simulated and controlled in the
laboratory.
Developing a stochastic model for metal corrosion in soil environments, considering the time-variant uncertain nature
of all factors involved, is the innovative outcome of this WP.
WP3 Study on effects of soil movement on stress field in pipes
In addition to service loads, environmental loads can also lead to soil movement which significantly affects pipe
behaviour and can result in its failure. For example, long droughts result in a decrease of soil saturation and an
increase of soil suction and cause contractive deformation of soils. On the other hand, rainfall causes an increase of
soil saturation and a decrease of soil suction, which may lead to either swelling or wetting collapse of soils. Widely
expected climate change will alter the existing rainfall/evaporation pattern, temperature cycle, and the current
underground water level, and change environmental loads further in the long term. Buried pipes will deform as a
consequence of soil movement, leading to a re-distribution of the stress field in the pipes, as shown in Fig.1.
Several climate parameters influencing water table
and soil moisture were established in a recent project
completed by CI Setunge [26]. These climate
parameters will be integrated into a recently
developed hydro-mechanical interactive constitutive
model [27] for soils by CI Zhou to predict soil
movement in different climate scenarios. The
predicted soil movement will then be inputted as
known displacement boundary conditions into a
commercial finite element program, e.g., ABAQUS,
to simulate the stress field in the pipe under both
environmental and service loads. The resultant stress
will be modelled as a stochastic process in the same
form as Eq.(3) because soil parameters and loads are
treated as time variant random variables.

Ground
Surface
pipe
Datum

pipe

Scenario 1: Initial state (after installation)

Evaporation

Datum

Rainfall
Ground
Surface

pipe
Datum

Soil shrinkage

pipe

Soil expansion

Datum

Scenario 2: Real world service state (under environmental loads)

Fig.1 Pipe deformation due to soil movement

Simulating the stress field in buried pipes under
various service and environmental loads and
developing a stochastic model of the stress is the innovative outcome of this WP.

WP4 Examination of corrosion effect on fracture toughness

Corrosion and other chemical agents can lead to a reduction in the fracture toughness of metals. For example,
corrosion reactions can generate hydrogen leading to embrittlement of metals. This has not been explored by other
researchers. It is hypothesised that this may be another reason for recent unexpected sudden, i.e., brittle, failures
observed in water pipes. Experiments proposed here will address these gaps in knowledge.
The same specimens as those of WP1 will be used in the experiment. After different degrees of corrosion, as
measured by corrosion depth, tests will be conducted on their fracture toughness according to ASTM-E1820-01. A
microscopic investigation to determine changes in the microstruture of the metals during the corrosion process and at
different degrees of corrosion will also be conducted. The investigation will provide an understanding of how
corrosion changes the properties of the material. The experience and skills of CIs Li and Setunge in corrosion related
tests will ensure the success of the tests.
Once the change of fracture toughness of the selected metals as a function of corrosion depth is established, a
stochastic model in the same form as Eq. (3) will be developed. The model for fracture toughness as a function of
corrosion depth will be the first to be developed in this research field.
The outcome of this WP will be of far-reaching significance to material and structural deterioration, opening new
areas of research on how corrosion affects material properties and furthering the knowledge of deterioration science.
WP5 Test on prototype buried pipe
If theoretical models are to be of use, they must be calibrated against data obtained under real service conditions.
Experiments have been designed to verify the results predicted by the models to be developed in this research. A
prototype pipe 4 meter long of the same materials as those in WP1 and with diameters of 100 mm, 150 mm and 250
mm (since about 80 - 85% pipe population are small pipes, i.e., <300 mm in diameter [2]) will be buried in
unsaturated collapsible/expansive soil in a rectangular box of 3m (L) x 1.5m (W) x 2.5m (H). Fig. 2 shows the
concept of the prototype test in which a loop pumping system will be used to provide controlled internal water
pressure (flow) as per the service load rating of the pipe.
The corrosion of the pipe will be induced in the same manner as detailed in WP1. Vertical service load will be
simulated with precast concrete weights supplemented by lead blocks. Horizontal service load will be applied using
hydraulic jacks. Rainfall will be simulated by water spray and water table in the soil will be controlled by a reservoir.
Suction transducers (tensiometers) will be installed to measure soil suction and a neutron moisture gauge will be
employed to measure soil moisture.
Section 1-1

1
Water sprayer

Water sprayer

Water sprayer

External loads

Water flow in

Water flow out

Buried pipe

Buried pipe
Soil

Water level

Reservoir

Watertable
Soil box

Watertable
Soil box

Fig. 2 Schematic of prototype test of buried pipe

Key data produced is the pipe stress induced by the combined action of corrosion, service and environmental loads
and soil movement, as well as deformation and related responses of the pipe. These will be measured by
circumferential and longitudinal strain gauges attached to the pipe. In the designed testing conditions, loading
surcharge, temperature cycles and drying/wetting paths will be controlled manually to simulate the real service
conditions. The tests will run until the failure of the specimen pipes in the same manner as that in WP1 so that the
failure mode can be observed.
The prototype test described here is the first in this research field, which further confirms the innovation and
originality of the proposed research.

WP6 Derivation of solution to probability of failure

The safe service life of buried pipes will be predicted based on risk assessment of pipe collapse (i.e., probability of
failure assuming the same consequences). The probability of pipe collapse will be determined using advanced timedependent reliability theory [28], as expressed in Eq. (2) and outlined in Fig. 3, in which R is the structural capacity
(e.g., strength or fracture toughness), S is the load effect (e.g., stress or stress intensity factor), fR(r|t=ta) is probability
density function for R at time ta, fS(s|t=ta) is probability density function for S at time ta, and tL is the life time. Eq. (2)
represents a typical outcrossing problem (the stochastic
R,S
process crosses out of a defined safe domain) to which the
Time-dependent reliability problem
Rice Formula is the general solution. The Rice Formula
consists of two parts: (i) the probability of failure at time
fR(r | t = ta)
zero, which can be solved using existing methods [28], e.g.,
fR(r | t = tb)
first order reliability (FOR) method, and (ii) the outcrossing
rate as a function of time, to which there is no existing
analytical solution when the stochastic processes are nonfS(s | t = ta)
stationary and non-Gaussian. In this research the
outcrossing rate will be derived based on the concept of first
passage probability and stochastic process theory.
S(t)

The probability of pipe collapse can be predicted using

Eq.(2) for the selected group of pipes under a variety of
environmental, service and ground conditions during their
whole service life. The safe service life for the selected
pipes can be determined for an acceptable risk due to the
nature of the time-variance of this method.

0 ta

fS(r | t = tb)

Typical load effect

tb

tL

Trace S(t)

Fig. 3 Method used for risk prediction

The derivation of a solution to the outcrossing rate under the combined action of corrosion, soil movement and
damage events is another innovative outcome of the proposed research, contributing to time-dependent reliability
theory, which is also applicable to many other engineering problems.
WP7 Integration of developed models and solution
All models and solutions developed and/or derived will be integrated into a theory with detailed descriptions and
derivations. An algorithm will be developed and coded into a user-friendly computer programme as a tool to
implement all computations of risk of pipe collapse under a variety of environmental, service and ground conditions.
With this tool, a quantitative risk classification can be produced for a given pipeline system. This research capability
will cement CIs leading position in the world in this research field.
Plan for the Proposed Research
The actions and timeline for the proposed research are planned as follows.
Tasks

12

Months
18
24

30

36

WP1-Test on corrosion
WP2- Development of corrosion model
WP3-Study on effects of soil movement on stress field in pipes
WP4-Examination of corrosion effect on fracture toughness
WP5-Test on prototype buried pipe
WP6-Derivation of solution to probability of failure
WP7- Integration of developed models and solution
Funds are requested from the ARC primarily for employment of a full time Research Assistant and a half time
Technician mainly for laboratory work whilst CIs focus on theoretical development of the proposed research.
National Research Priorities and Priority Goals
The outcomes will advance the knowledge in the complex deterioration of buried pipelines and their failure
mechanisms, with clear understanding of corrosion of pipes, fracture of corroded pipes, soil pipe interaction
incorporating climate change and time-variant uncertainty of all factors using the theory of reliability. Based on this

knowledge accurate prediction of pipe failures and its safe life can be achieved. This advanced knowledge will
subsequently bring about technological innovations, e.g., reliability-based intelligent management of buried pipelines,
innovative remedial measures of deteriorated pipelines, guidelines on design of new pipelines and development of
new pipe materials. These innovative technologies will sharpen the competitive edge of Australian industry
internationally. Therefore the proposed research aligns very well with the national research priority of Frontier
Technologies for Building and Transforming Australian Industries specifically under the goal of Frontier
technologies.
Economic, Environmental and Social Benefits
In addition to scientific innovation and advancing knowledge, the outcomes of the proposed research will enhance the
sustainability of buried infrastructure by pro-active and intelligent management based on frontier technologies. This
will create far-reaching benefits to the Australian and international community. The economic, environmental and
social benefits will be derived from:
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)

improved serviceability of pipeline systems based on better understanding of the pipe behaviour;
better planning for pipeline systems based on accurate prediction of safe service life;
updated guidelines for intelligent management of pipe assets based on developed models and methods;
preventing environmental pollution and flooding based on accurate prediction of pipe failures;
preventing disruption of the daily life of the public based on accurate prediction of failures and mitigation
measures;
6) potential savings based on preventing premature and avoidable failures of pipes (see Value for Money); and
7) creating a culture of pro-active and intelligent management of pipe infrastructure through research and
innovation.
Value for Money
The proposed research will produce good value for money. Whilst the savings from prevention of unexpected
collapses of buried infrastructure are difficult to evaluate (but are at least hundreds of millions of dollars), savings
from capital expenditure on buried pipes can be estimated. For example, the annual cost for the replacement of failed
pipes is estimated at $115 million, increasing by 10% annually [2]. This cost is ultimately borne by the public, i.e.,
taxpayers. If these failures could be predicted more accurately, using the developed models and methodology, so that
5% of the pipes could serve for one more year (which is a conservative estimate), the potential annual savings are
$5.75 million. Funds requested for the proposed research to create this benefit are only $314K, i.e. about 5% of one
years savings. This is a significant cost/benefit ratio.
IV

RESEARCH ENVIRONMENT

Research Strategy and Directions at RMIT

As a well-established university of technology and design, RMIT focuses on solving critical global problems with
smart technological solutions. This project directly aligns with RMITs strategic plan where smart technology
solutions, sustainability and climate change and the future of cities are key interdisciplinary research topics endorsed
and supported by the university. RMIT has identified sustainable systems as one of key research areas. The outcomes
of the proposed research will be a fundamental understanding of the failure of buried metal pipelines leading to the
development of tools and technologies for reducing the economic, environmental and social impacts caused by
unexpected failure of buried infrastructure, and enhancing the sustainability of buried infrastructure systems. The
strong support of the proposed research by RMIT is demonstrated by the cash contribution of $156,139 to support a
PhD studentship directly working on the proposed research and other costs on experiments and disseminations.
Adequacy of the Research Environment in the School
The research will be conducted in the School of Civil, Environmental and Chemical Engineering at RMIT. CI Li is
the Head of School and CI Setunge is the Head of the Civil Engineering Discipline. The Civil Engineering
laboratories are well equipped for the proposed experimental program, together with the environmental and chemical
laboratories within the School. Each year the university spends about $700,000 on capital equipment for the School.
This has allowed the School to develop cutting edge facilities in material durability testing, including a large
environmental chamber, two smaller chambers, fully equipped corrosion tanks with salt spray, electrodes, loop

pumps, fully automated 500kN capacity creep rigs, 3000 kN servo controlled compression testing and 1000 kN
tensile testing capability and repeat load automated triaxial testing rig. The School also has developed a pipe testing
chamber, where flow rate can be changed to induce differential stresses. The School has direct access to SEM, XRD
and EDAX equipment for corrosion and microstructural analysis through the School of Applied Science of RMIT.
With the support of University, the School has recently recruited two senior academic staff (one professor and one
associate professor) in Civil Engineering to increase its research activities and profile. In 2012, the School invested in
20 postgraduate research scholarships and the equivalent of four Research Fellowships to enhance its research
outputs. Of 18 academics in the Discipline of Civil Engineering, there is a Fellow of ATSE, 2 professors, 4 associate
professors and 2 DECRA recipients (one is CI Zhou). The Discipline typically attracts around $1million in research
funds per year.
Capability of the Research Team
CIs Li, Setunge and Zhou are members of the infrastructure research group, which is a strategically supported area of
recognized research strength within the School. CI Lis research expertise includes time-dependent reliability theory
and corrosion and its effect on structural deterioration. From 2003 to 2011, Li worked in the UK where he was
awarded four EPSRC (ARC equivalent) grants, among other national and industry grants. In one of EPSRC projects
(GR/R28348), he led a multidisciplinary research team to develop a quantitative maintenance strategy for coastal
structures, which involved 5 academic investigators, 1 research fellow, 3 research students and 4 industrial
collaborators. The final assessment for the completed project is (EPSRC letter of 25/11/2005): (i) Research Quality
Internationally leading; (ii) Research Planning and Practice Internationally leading; and (iii) Communications of
Research Outputs Outstanding. In the recent UKs Research Assessment Exercise in 2008 (RAE2008), CI Lis
research outputs in materials and structural deterioration and service life prediction were rated 4-star, i.e., the world
leading (the highest rating).
CI Setunge has established expertise in infrastructure management covering bridges, buildings, seaports and sewers
with four current research grants including an ARC Linkage grant and an NCCARF grant in this area. She has
developed accelerated testing of materials in the RMIT Civil Engineering laboratory where she has simulated
microbial corrosion of concrete septic tanks, corrosion of steel reinforcement and time effects on concrete. CI
Setunge has developed two integrated systems for deterioration prediction and cost optimisation of council buildings
and predicting effects of climate change on seaport structures.
CI Zhou was awarded a PhD degree in 2011. He successfully won a competitive ARC Discovery Early Career
Researcher Award (DECRA) in 2012 (one of three in RMIT). CI Zhou has made a significant contribution to the
research field by developing constitutive models for various geotechnical engineering materials (e.g., unsaturated
soils) and corresponding finite element algorithms to solve engineering problems.
The details of the CIs research record are in Section F.
Communication and Engagement
The outputs of this research will be communicated through publications in peer-reviewed international journals and
international conferences and their proceedings. The target for journal publications is 6 papers per year. Target
journals include Corrosion Science, Geotechnique, ASCE Journal of Materials in Civil Engineering and ASCE
Journal of Engineering Mechanics. Target conferences include the: 19th International Corrosion Congress in 2014;
20th European Conference on Fracture in 2015; 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and
Probability in Civil Engineering in 2015; 24thInternational Congress of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics in 2016;
ASCE Pipelines Conference in 2016; and 37th International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical
Engineering in 2016. The outputs will also be communicated through a series of workshops and events with the target
audience being pipeline sector. Publicity materials, e.g. brochures, posters, articles, etc. will be produced and
disseminated either by print or on the Internet.
V

ROLE OF PERSONNEL

The research team has complementary expertise that is ideally suited to the accomplishment of the proposed aims and
objectives. CI Li will devote 20% of his time to the project and be responsible for the delivery of the proposed
research as planned, providing overall leadership and guidance for the project based on his expertise and experience.

He will specifically work on model development as detailed in WPs 2 to 4 and on the derivation of analytical
solutions as detailed in WP 6. CI Setunge will contribute 20% of her time on the design and development of the
corrosion experiments (WP1), fracture toughness tests (WP4) and prototype tests (WP5). She will also be responsible
for the development of the corrosion model (WP2) and the integrated tool (WP7) combining the outcomes of WPs 2
to 6. CI Zhou will contribute 20% of his time to developing stochastic hydro-mechanical constitutive model for soils
and implementing this model into FEM codes to predict soil movement and qualify the stress field of the pipes
(WP3). He will also participate in determining soil parameters for prototype testing of buried pipes (WP5).
The Research Assistant will be full-time employed specifically for laboratory work (WPs 1, 4 and 5) where he/she
will be engaged in corrosion monitoring, downloading data from the data logger and verifying accuracy under the
guidance of the CIs, fracture testing and prototype testing of the pipe as described under Methodology. The
Technician is employed full time for the first year and 0.5 part time for the second year, specifically for developing
testing rigs, fabrication of corrosion tanks, fracture test specimens and the setting up of monitoring equipment. A
Research Student, fully funded by RMIT University, will primarily focus on research into pipe corrosion and
predictive modelling of the corrosion process under different influencing parameters. He/she will conduct the
comprehensive experimental study to understand the corrosion process and influencing parameters.
VI
[1]
[2]
[3]
[4]
[5]
[6]
[7]
[8]
[9]
[10]
[11]
[12]
[13]
[14]
[15]
[16]
[17]
[18]
[19]
[20]
[21]
[22]
[23]
[24]
[25]
[26]
[27]
[28]

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