From Nomination To Election: Evolution vs. Devolution, Policy vs. Perjorative and Consequences

Re-evaluating and Re-valuing the 2008 Elections:
The Candidates, Issues, Outcomes and Implications

By Dave Livingston. Dave is a management consultant with almost 30 years of experience with analyzing
complex business problems and developing solutions and new businesses. He blogs on public affairs at
his blog Parts, Systems, Structures and Outcomes (http://llinlithgow.com/PtW/ ) where he attempts to
apply that toolkit to current affairs and public policy.
Introduction
This set of essays covers the US Presidential Election from Nomination to Election but takes
two unusual perspectives. First, it is policy-based. What we mean by that is that we lay out an
idealized policy framework in each of the major categories of Foreign Policy, Economic Policy
and Domestic Policy. That framework is then used repeatedly to track the substance of the
candidates statements and positions as they are presented and evolve throughout the
campaign.
Second, it is also psychology-based; and that is perhaps the most important factor to consider.
Most people don’t have the time or resources to dig deeply into policy. It is then up to the
candidates to present a compelling vision of where they wanted to take the country, explain the
specifics in enough detail to be convincing and communicate it well enough to be compelling.
Over the course of the campaign, as we see it evolving, both candidates came in for some
harsh judgments on both sets of evaluation criteria. But there was also a clear evolution as
well. As the campaign proceeded Barry was increasingly clear and substantive while John-boy
was increasingly appealing less and less to substance and more and more to emotion.
Which introduces what is almost a third major dimension of evaluation. To persuade voters, or
to provide leadership in any situation in fact you must speak to both the rational mind and the
emotional mind. If you like you present to the forebrain, the modern mind that’s recently
evolved, and but you sell to the hindbrain, the lizard-brain, which is the oldest and most
emotional part of our psychological makeup. It is also where our deepest emotional reflexes,
values and beliefs reside and, ultimately, where decisions are made. It is, in other words,
where candidates win or loose.
The other major evolution of the campaign was that as John-boy grew increasingly less
substantive his desire to win led him to sell more and more to those emotions, using some of
the most pejorative arguments and labels. In fact the McCain who we long admired became
increasingly hidden by and subservient to the candidate who wanted to win. Apparently at
almost any cost.
In the course of the final months of the campaign the groundwork was laid for our current crisis
of institutional confidence and the metastasis of lizard-brain appeals – in other words the
seeds of the Tea Parties were sown in 2008. And now we’re reaping the harvest. Though not
Economy, Policy and Politics: Navigating the Hurricane + Tsunami
without a lot of “farmers” who are gathering the harvest in pursuit of partisan political
advantage.
Table of Contents
Essays
1. Crossing the Cusp Points: Politics, Policy and a Proposal 3
2. Moral Clarity? Good Intentions, Muddy Proposals, Directional Obscurities 5
3. Foreign Affairs, Security & Iraq: Poseur in Chief? 6
4. Barry Abroad, John-boy Alone: Where's the Beef 8
5. Voice, Leadership, Messages, Realities: Living in a Tough World 10
6. Welcome to Saddleback: the Candidates, Pastor Rick and Some Real Answers 12
7. The Stories the Candidates Aren't Telling Us: Politics as Usual 14
8. Stories They Need to Tell: a Policy Challenge Review 16
9. Politics and Policy: Convention to Consequences 18
10. 911 Memorial: Fix the Problem Don't Repeat the Crash 19
11. Politics and Policy II: Next Convention, Any Consequences? 21
12. Crisis, Debates and Leadership? Yeah, Right. 24
13. Populist Panderings, the Candidates and Real Solutions 26
14. Rope-a-Dope at Hofstra: Handicapping the Debate and Results 28
15. Campaigns, Candidates, Consequences: Some Assessments 31
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June 15, 2008
Crossing the Cusp Points: Politics, Policy and a Proposal

http://llinlithgow.com/PtW/2008/06/crossing_the_cusp_points_polit.html
We seem to be in a bit of a lull while the candidates catch their breaths, maybe rest a tad, re-structure their
organizations and re-positions themselves for the general election. That calm is probably very deceptive and
underneath the surface the duck' s feet are paddling furiously indeed. However there are two giant changes
coming, willy-nilly, whether we want them to or not. And they should represent cusp points in the tone, tenor and
direction of the campaign.
The first is a shift from matters of style and

maneuver to including more matters of substance
and policy. Now that' s not to be too "Pollyanish"
about it all - as we' ve said we' ve already gotten quite
a bit of improvement in this election in ways that
really matter to us. And at the same time it' s still an
election where style and sound-bytes will matter, as
they always do. The extent to which we shift will
depend, in part, on the voters. Are we going to ask
the hard questions or be satisfied with the easy and
good-sounding answers?
There' s some evidence the number and seriousness

of our challenges is indeed forcing some shift. Of
course in the long-run there are two key things to
bear in mind. These issues are substantive, they' re
hear to stay and we' ll have to face them one way or
another. And, no matter who wins, the real world has rhythms, patterns and directions of its'own - no matter what
the rhetoric US Foreign Policy is not likely to shift all that much other than in cosmetics. The graphics is our
proposed template for these matters of substance from renewing key general principles to structural re-
engineering of the governance mechanisms to key policy clusters. Consider it a proposed architecture for the
debates on policy as well as a representation of our best analysis of realities and resolutions.
The second big shift coming is generational. About every 20+ years there is a major shift in political leadership as
one generation succeeds another. In 1960 JFK succeeded DDE as the baton was passed to the youngsters of the
"Greatest Generation" from their elders. When Slick Willy took over from Bush41 it was another generational shift
from the "Greatest" to the Boomers - and a massive attitudinal shift as well. Stop and think about what you think it
was - a worthy topic of exploration. I'
d suggest it was a shift from struggle, duty, obligation and "no free lunch" to
the beneficiaries of that effort who were more concerned about "actualization", self/me and less focused on the
hard work needed to get there. And that' s not to pick on either posture, at least entirely. The attitudes are as much
a product of the environment as the reverse and are more or less appropriate for them. We did, IMHO, loose sight
of what brought us to that pleasant state of being able to focus on our navels and have spent the last several
years being reminded.
Whoever wins this election it is a generational shift again - like we said...these issues will be with us for decades.
It'
s not given to us to avoid them, only how we deal with them. John-boy stands for the last, and in some ways,
the best of the Boomer generation. A genuine war hero, a man of integrity and substance and a demonstrated
maverick who has followed his own thinking and the evidence on most matters of substance. Barry, aside from
both his eloquence and his ability to put the challenges of the time in new and insightful way, is less well known.
But appears to also be a man grounded in his own self. to know what he believes and why and to have both a
good idea of where he wants to take us and what it' ll take to get there. He's certainly shown a solid predilection
behind the scenes for picking good people, seeking out the best advice and advisers, running a well thought out
organization and inventing new ways of doing things. All to the good.
Page 3 of 31
This campaign so far has confounded the pundits right and left because the old shibboleths of which issue works
for which voter group in which state keep getting over-turned. And now that we have the two most atypical, for
their parties, candidates whatever remains of the old thinking will continue to be challenged. Between the return of
serious issues from the frivolities of the last two decades and the aftermath and these changes in the polity we
are facing an inescapable cusp point. Good - it' s about time.
IMHO Barry needs to do three things: 1) translate his future vision into more specific operating principles - note,
not specifics, just guidelines so we can better evaluate him on the big issues. Then 2) convince more voters that
while he's not one of them he gets them. And 3) absorb, not just listen to advice, a more realistic view of what a
tough and ugly world it is. Conversely John-Boy needs to give us something to hang our hats on - that is he needs
to explain what the over-arching vision of his candidacy is. In my mind it'
s not blind change for changes sake to
make us feel good. It is to reform and re-structure those things that aren't working well - change for progress and
performance, based on the best of the past but dealing with the challenges of the future.
At the end of the day the accompanying graphic is my

proposed set of "Fundamental Principles" that
represent my suggestions for how to accomplish
these ends - marrying matters of communication,
leadership, style, substance and specifics into a set of
principles and policies best suited for the times as I
see them. Agree or not - and please feel free - it's not
a bad checklist to use to evaluate the candidates.
More specifically here are the five cusp point policies
that wrap things together and you should use to judge
the candidates.
1. Economy - we're facing the most serious

economic challenges we' ve faced since 1980 and
need regulatory reform, stimulus and long-term
investments to jump-start growth.
2. Energy - it's time for a concerted national effort in a multi-decade long migration to different energy sources.
Which would also help out the Economy.
3. Middle East - Iraq is still a challenge and needs care and attention but a stable ME is the sine qua non of
holding the world system and our economy together.
4. Education - the other side of the coin of creating new sources of economic growth is making sure our
populace is qualified, which it'
s not. And the major obstacle for a new education are the existing institutional
infrastructures which place private interests ahead of innovation, adaptation and the public interest.
5. Regulatory Reform - we actually understand Foreign/Security Policy and the Economy pretty well and have
the mechanisms fairly well developed to accomplish what we want. Our strugglies with Social Policy are really a
new thing in human history - only since the the 1960'
s has any society attempted to re-engineer itself like this. The
intent was good but the mechanisms failed us. We need new ones.
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July 23, 2008
Foreign Affairs, Security & Iraq: Poseur in Chief?

http://llinlithgow.com/PtW/2008/07/foreign_affairs_security_iraq.html
Since the candidates aren' t being as clearly forthcoming with their policy directions as we' d like the next step is to
return to foundations and parse out the details, to some extent, ourselves. And since Barry is just finishing up his
triumphal tour of foreign shores the area of Foreign Affairs and National Security seems like the appropriate place
to start. After the break are a set of collected excerpts that review the national security situation, the broader topic
of US grand strategy with respect to the world and Iraq specifically. Unfortunately for us all his posture on Iraq
seems to be accurately captured in the cartoon - which despite being a couple of weeks old represents the
feedback we' ve been getting on several fronts. Despite what you heard on the news both the Iraqi government
and the commanders on the ground told them the last thing they wanted was a definite timetable. While
supportive of an eventual withdrawal, or at least drawdown, what they' re after is a flexibility to decide in concert
with the evolution of events. Along with a longer term US commitment to Iraqi security, defense and on-going
support. What Col. Austin Bey characterizes as strategic over-watch.
In fact the Surge strategy has been enormously successful and laid the basic foundations for a more durable civil
environment. At the same time the defeat of al-Queda in Iraq (AQI) has had three fundamental consequences.
First it'
s functioned as an enormous rat trap with every nutjob in the region and further being drawn into the
meatgrinder and suffering enormous casualties. Second the unchecked violence deployed by AIQ has resulted in
a major defeat for them in the public mind thruout the ME. And third, though only a far-away glimmer, it raises the
potential for a stable, improving and democratic country sitting in the middle of the world'
s most unstable,
dangerous and strategic geography.
Which btw means Barry' s emphasis on

Afghanistan as the "central front" is an
error of judgment of monumental
proportions, as pointed out by no less
than the Washington Post on its'
editorial page. His posturing and
manipulation of the press coverage -
preventing all active coverage and
interviews and presenting somewhat
distorted views of what he was getting
as feedback, can at best be described
as disingenuous and self-serving. As
Lord Keynes put it, "when the facts
change I change my mind. What do you
do, sir?"
Which is not to say that Iraq was, by any

means well-executed. But we did
succeed in adopting and adapting in
"orderly, proficient, military manner" to quote GSY T. Highway. Which leads to broader questions of what did we
learn and how do we apply those lessons worldwide for a more open and inclusive US Foreign Policy. Earlier
we' d argued (Brave New World: Non-Flatness, History and Challenges, Peace, Stability and Prosperity: the
Nature of Good Government) that the central principle of US FP ought to be constructive engagement with the
world to establish a new world system based on a stable int' l regime that asked for support from major
stakeholders in line with the benefits they receive. And one that also recognizes that failed states are in no one'
s
interest.
Page 5 of 31
With those governing principles in mind the lesson for strategic development of our FP capabilities include a more
balanced emphasis on bringing to bear all our capabilities in an integrated whole, which is NOT well-received
among the bureaucratic turf-mice. It also includes using those TBD capacities in our specific strategies, the
example given here being Pakistan. And finally it means putting more emphasis on soft power and public
diplomacy. An integrated perspective we' ve tried to represent in the accompanying graphic.
Yet at the end of the day this requires vision, leadership, integrity and honesty as opposed to pursuit of narrow
and partisan political advantage. Take a look at the readings below - where we' ve deliberately and typically
passed on the more polemical and biased sources in favor of the informed and balanced. After you skim them - or
better, clicked thru and read a few - make up your own minds regarding whether Barry was a) being
disingenuous, b) right, c) flexible and d) public-spirited. On the whole my interpretation of these reports does not
lead to a favorable conclusion.
Page 6 of 31
The Democrats fought the surge with every maneuver and

ounce of energy they could muster, including pejorative attacks
on our commanders and distortions. Notice that they' ve been
notably silent since around Oct. Given their position that we'
d
screwed up it would seem to me civic responsibility called for
fixing the problem...not trying to make it as much worse as
possible.
So how would you like to evaluate things ? The final excerpt on

Iraq outlines a strategic alternative that serves all our goals and
applies these lessons. And Sen. Obama would achieve a new
stature in my mind if he' d carp the diem and adopt some version.
Instead he seems to be doing his level best to come out even
more mis-guided than when he went in. Very sad for a reasonable, rational man who could have been one of the
great leaders of our time.
July 26, 2008
Barry Abroad, John-boy Alone: Where's the Beef

http://llinlithgow.com/PtW/2008/07/barry_abroad_johnboy_alone_whe.html
Well "Brian", I mean Barry, has had his triumphal tour

of Jerusalem and points around and between, at least
according to some of the coverage. What's rapidly
becoming street mythology. And Johnboy was so
lonely and abandoned. It’s probably worth your while
to skim the excerpted readings, including the URLs to a
very wide range of articles, from a wide range of
source. You might be rather surprised - even the Der
Spiegel reporter had some notes of hesitancy while the
various Brits were properly applauding as well-spoken
PR gesture but spent their last paragraphs on "so what".
Listened to a panel on Rose last night and that was
essentially there conclusion as well.
Just to make you feel better here: http://www.cagle.com/news/ObamaMedia/main.asp

And to wrap some perspectives - the number of folks who're poking fun at a no substance trip is pretty
universal. They also take some pretty good shots at the media.
If I were making the business decision as to where to spend my resources running a network I'd have
done the same thing. Judging from the widespread so what reactions (the cartoons divide into media,
foreign trip and so forth categories rather than being a single topic) the foreign trip isn't actually doing
him any good. Johnboy should have sussed that out ahead of time, not gotten his nose out of joint in any
case and certainly not thrown a hissy fit. He really needs to get his act together. This is actually kinda of
funny if you've the right sense of humor.
Page 7 of 31
The "Golden Child" master of visionary rhetoric has the best, most well-crafted organization operating
with panache, discipline and elan'. (Look that up sometime back when it was official Fr. military
doctrine for infantry tactices - hint: see trench warfare, machine gun,...) but can't tell us what he really
wants to do nor explain who he is. On the other hand the tough-as-nails (literally, I understand they still
get a few coming up ocassionaly) fighter pilot can't get organized enough to start a bar fight and can't
write a cohesive enough ops order to get everybody marching together. And he's not having any better
luck explaining what's he's all about either.
Below are three softclip excerpts and plus URLs for a sampling of judgments about his foray abroad. If I
could summarize it would be:
1) those who haven't heard him before but were enchanted are potentially enamored of
his vision,
2) those who have heard him repeatedly repeat, "where's the beef", and
3) McCain remains within reach. Beyond that the careful control of the message, the
suppression of tough press questioning, the posturing (as several commentators note,
including several of the so-called liberal, biased media - e.g. Andrea Mitchell) isn't
encouraging.
Nor has the impact, once any euphoria aside from the true believers wears off, likely to be as uplifting as
he hoped. On the other hand it's certainly not the disaster it could have been. As a further summary:
1) Americans still don't have a grip on who or what he is while they are more comfortable
with Johnboy,
2) Barry will have to come out form behind his shell and show us who he truly his -
something he's incredibly uncomfortable with,
3) real substance needs to be forthcoming,
4) in his background he's demonstrated he's an inquiring mind ready to listen carefully to
anyone of substance, to be nuanced and hard-headed/handed when he perceives it as
necessary,
5) his unwillingness to change his mind as the result of that listening and a pronounced
difficulty in admitting he's wrong (the Surge being the primary example) and
6) his total reliance on the "brave new world" euphoria of the early '90s instead of
translating that into realpolitik. At least in his speechifying.
This is his election to loose IMHO and he might manage if he doesn't quit relying on feel-good
rhetoric.Consider: Real Clear Politics poll summary.
Page 8 of 31
So...WHERE's THE BEEF?
July 30, 2008
Voice, Leadership, Messages, Realities:

Living in a Tough World
http://llinlithgow.com/PtW/2008/07/voice_leadership_messages_real.html
The latest Real Clear Politics poll has it like this: Barry 46.3, John-boy 43.7,
Difference 2.6(B). Not much of a gap and one that' s narrowing, even after
the triumphal world tour. We' ll have to see how things play out of course.
Every "objective" indicator from dislike of Bush, to the state of the economy,
to accelerating voter anxiety about the future to the successes in Iraq would
favor Barry. What' s going on here ? Well some of, if not most of it, is the dilemmas and lack of clarity we already
discussed (Moral Clarity ? Good Intentions, Muddy Proposals, Directional Obscurities). And the cartoon, puts it in
perspective. A caveat - while the cartoonist probably intended to take a shot at Barry IMHO it applies to John-boy
as well, just differently.
My bottom line is this - we have a pretty clear grip on the major policy challenges, both here on the blog in some
depth and analytical fashion and among the general public. Who may be less analytical but has a darn good
grasp of what the real challenges are. Where the
rub's turning into pain and how serious it is. What we
don' t have a clear grip on is what either candidate is
proposing to do about it. Let me wrap a couple of
pictures around that, just for fun, illustration and to riff
off of.
Policy Directions
First, just as a reminder and to frame the discussion, here's how we see the major policy challenges. And our
recommendations for strategic directions to follow to dealing with them - basic or fundamental principles if you
will. Now the categories and descriptions got built up out of the way things work - reality as best we can judge -
and the way people end up thinking about these things, even when it' s not so crisp. The directional
recommendations are what our analysis suggests offer the best and most workable objectives to pursue at a high
level. But of course the devil'
s in the details.
Candidate Evaluation
So how' re the candidates doing against the

blueprint ? And how will/are people judging
them? The next picture we put together to try
and frame those question from a couple of
direction. As the last post discussed (Rational
Voters, Public Choice, Economics and Futures)
nobody' s got the time or resources to do
detailed evaluations on all the issues and
alternatives, the candidates and their non-
existent proposals. So we all tend to the next
best thing - judging on Vision, Leadership and
Policy Principles. More or less - and it'
s not a
bad way to go. If you combine that list with the
policy principles blueprint you might end up with
something like this. And apply it to the two
candidates you might end up with the two-color
Page 9 of 31
triangles. Which aren'

t entirely fair but heah, what'
d you expect for free graphics.
But aren't entirely inaccurate either - Barry is a lot stronger on the Vision thing but sure seems to fade out fast on
anything below that. On the other hand John-boy gets to down to brass tacks on a few things where he' s
comfortable (his paint scheme should have been spottier for sure) but sure fades fast when trying to explain how
he sees it all tying together. If Barry is running on eloquence John-boy' s running on true-grit and track record and
both might just be running on empty.
As Good As It Gets??? Where's Ronnie When You Need Him?
That' s a complaint, not a diagnosis and not a treatment for sure but it may be as good as it gets. Going back to
the "Policy Principles" chart we're in a world where there are major structural changes in every category. It'
sa
brave new, multi-polar world where peace and love haven' t broken out but there are major rising powers who
need to be incorporated constructively into some new system. Meanwhile we' re experiencing major structural
shifts in the economy which is making people legitimately anxious about future growth prospects. And it' s also
leading to major pressures on society that are making people less comfortable with the old American verities. The
only good news IOHO is that the culture wars have been back-burnered as the seriousness of these challenges
mount up.
The last time we faced a range and depth of problems this severe was in 1980 when we had an imploding
economy, a failing foreign policy that was losing the Cold War and a mounting backlash against the failed social
engineering of the '
60s and the associated libertinism attacking our core historic values. And Ronnie managed to
step forward, calm everybody down by offering a vision for the future and specific action plans that did address
many of these problems. In a small way he shared Lincoln' s abilities in finding simple explanations for complex
problems and converting them into convincing stories. But also for the record he was badly wrong about much of
his economics and we' re still living with the consequences. On the other hand there was a lot he was right about;
for example he and Volcker broke the back of inflation and restored a growing economy though supply-side
turned out to be voodoo economics indeed.
In other words he had a VOICE - he could tell us straight out what he thought was going on and what we
ought to do about it, in a way we could understand and find convincing...or not.
Voice and Leadership
And therein lies the problem - neither of the candidates has found their VOICES as yet. They haven't come up
with simple, clear and compelling explanations of who they are, what they stand for, what they think we
should do and how we should go about. That' s it in a nutshell.
But let'
s set the record straight. The scope and seriousness of the problems we face now are not anything like the
ones Reagan faced and those were nothing in comparison to what we faced at prior major turning points in the
history of the Republic. So let's everyone get a grip - we got thru those. Maybe not with style and grace but overall
not ineffectively either. We'
ll muddle thru these somehow as well - if nothing else by definition. The question then
becomes will we like the outcome?
Part of the problem is that for a long time politicians have been successful telling us what the think we want to
hear because we haven' t insisted on hearing painful truths. Well the fact of the matter is that the world is what it is
and we' re in a better position, now and for decades than almost any other entity. But there are serious challenges.
The one of most concern is the economy and there aren' t any magic answers, there especially. Most of the
problems we face with regard to the Economy, and the associated problems with Energy and Education are the
result of deep structural flaws that have been accumulating for decades. They are addressable....just not quickly,
easily or cheaply. So?
The bottomline of the bottomlines is that the central challenge is the short- and long-term
economic issues. And neither candidate has demonstrated any comfort, competence or
Page 10 of 31
command there. Despite, at least in Barry's case, having as fine a composite team of business leaders and
economists at his disposal as any I' ve ever known to be assembled. And John-boy' s on the whole ain'
t to bad
either. But that'
s in a nutshell - they need to find their VOICES on the Economy and we're running out of time.
And with only a little over three months left this may indeed be as good as it gets.
August 18, 2008
Welcome to Saddleback: the Candidates, Pastor Rick and Some

Real Answers
http://llinlithgow.com/PtW/2008/08/welcom_to_saddlback_the_candid.html
Pastor Rick Warren, of Saddleback Church and the "Purpose Driven Life" has done us all a great service by
creating, hosting and running a candid, serious and probing set of interviews with Barry and John-boy. Or given
how it played out perhaps we should say, Sen. Obama and McCain. Everyone comported themselves with great
dignity, forthrightness, integrity, honesty and spoke well. Despite what you may have heard the reach and range
of the questions is such that you really need to watch this for yourself. In aid of that goal after the break you' ll find
URL pointers to both the CNN online video clips as well as C-SPAN' s; and a pointer to a full transcript as well.
You' ll also find some related readings excerpts associated with their related URLs, if you want to click on through
and read the whole thing. We didn' t grab everything but did try and grab a representative sample who seem to be
reasonably accurate and useful, in our judgment at any rate. Even where we didn' t entirely agree with the
assessments on either side of the analysis.
Pastor Rick did a superb job and, in our opinion, a serious public service for the nation. You are not likely to hear
anything better in this campaign. In fact he set the tone, as well as defined some critical aspirational principles
we'd like to see return to the center of our public square.
1. We believe in the separation of Church and State. We do not believe in the seperation of Faith
and Politics because Faith is a worldview that should help determine your choices.
2. We need to learn to disagree without demonizing each other. We need to return Civility to
Public Discourse.
Bottomline you need to watch these - if you' re going to vote there is, we think, no better use of your time.
Particularly since the general consensus - while not grossly inaccurate - filters out too much, doesn' t catch the
implications and misses to much of the deeper character because too many of the commentators didn' t
understand what they were hearing on several levels. You might also want to check out some of the vidclips of
Pastor Rich - who agree or not, share his faith or not - is both eloquent, thoughtful and experienced in the
ugliness of the real world. His efforts here should change for the better many of the negative impressions bandied
about in the MSM and commentariat about Faith-Holders, evangelicals in particular. Beyond that if you have a
view of them as simple-minded, monolithic and incurably benighted at least know your opponent better. You might
be surprised.
The "consensus" seems to be that John-boy was direct, forceful and impressive. He was certainly better here
than in any other venue we' ve heard him. And that Barry was subtle, nuanced and careful. At a superficial surface
level that'
s probably accurate. But doesn' t begin to go far enough, though some of the excerpts provide examples
that are fairly accurate. Let me offer up my key impressions.
1. First off these are both impressive people - principled, intelligent, and wanting the best for their country. At the
end of the day I ended up liking and admiring them both and would be privileged to have them as friends,
colleagues or comrades. On our historical scale solid B players. Bear in mind the list of A players is pretty short,
Page 11 of 31
e.g. George, Abe, Teddy and so forth. It'

s grading on the curve and it'
s a tough curve. But then it darn well should
be, shouldn'
t it?
2. The differences of nuance verses directness that everybody has commented and concluded on misses a
fundamental and critical point. John McCain is of a generation and upbringing where clear, even simple,
fundamentals were what you acquired, grew up with and developed over your lifetime. Barrack Obama is a child
of a different, more complex, more diverse age and upbringing. One perhaps more accurately reflective of the
world we must find our way in. Yet neither is right or wrong in and of themselves. In fact you need to be sensitive
to complexity but able to decide, act and carry thru on fundamental core principles. Which man bests suits the
times is for you to judge, but if you'
re honest, hard to do because we need a balance of both.
In case the commenters completely missed the backstory here and, therefore, how it'
s likely to play out among
different voter groups depending on what they'
re sensitive too.
3. The initial questions were on character, specifically tell me about a major choice you had, a moral failure of
yours and a touch, morally challenging decision. And who would be your go-to counselors. Barry' s answers were
of a thoughtful, civilized person. His advisers - his wife, grandmother and so forth. John-boy's were Gen.
Petraeus, Meg Whitman and John Lewis, a great, black civil rights leader who almost died from it.
The most telling differences probably lay in the "tell us a tough choice". Frankly Barry's escapes me - some
personal trivia. John-boy' s was to stay in prison and continue to be tortured. Asked to answer the equivalent
question on a tough leadership decision Barry answered, "when John and I worked together on campaign finance
reform". McCain' s was when I bucked the most respected Republican president of the time, Ronald Reagan, on
his Lebanon decision because he was wrong; and even though it could have destroyed my career which was just
starting.
Barry'
s a nice guy but John'
s beliefs come from having lived thru the fire and paid full ferry toll for them.
4. On the other hand John-boy' s stump speech tirade that fundamental Islamic radicalism is the major crisis of our
time was out of place and, after several thousand words of analysis, and much research, beyond plain wrong. It' s
merely one of many, not the most important though perhaps the most immediate. China and the BRICs, Russia' s
primitive revanchism, and a serious economic downturn are in fact more serious, urgent and consequential.
5. Speaking of which not much was said directly to the economics issues though it was dealt with in passing via
taxes and "who' s rich". Barry'
s answer was a policy wonks while John-boy' s was wishy-washy, ill-thought and ill-
expressed. In the larger scheme neither candidate has come up with comprehensive, workable or sensible
economic policy proposals. This will be the single most important issue after January and neither seems to have a
grasp.
6. As a final note, pro or con, all the commenters seem to feel that John-boy was in a home-court audience while
Barry was dealing with a potentially unfriendly crowd. Perhaps - and while John catered to their core interests he
wasn' t very expressive or insightful on matters of faith. That may be the private person. Barry on the other hand
did get several rounds of heartfelt applause - these are not Oral Robert' s "Moral Majority". More back to the
"Social Gospel" of Christians doing good. And that should NOT be under-estimated. MUCH more importantly
Barry displayed a comfortable familiarity with Scripture and a more than surface reading. He' d clearly read,
understood, internalized and was acting on Scripture. And these people would recognize that. Yet another major
point that no talking head or commentariat appartchik got.
Bottomline - well to tell the truth I'

m still not sure. As an old rock climber we used to have an interesting test.
Would you let this guy hold the other end of the rope if you were on lead ? Understanding that the guy on lead
had a many feet freefall if he slipped and your life depended on the guy on the safety rope being willing to take
some serious pain to arrest you. John-boy would without a doubt. Barry...well I' m not sure.
On the other hand John-boy might damm well get you climbing directly up some damm face you had not business
being on or didn' t even need to climb. With Barry you could sit down and work thru the alternatives, pick the right
climb, avoide it altogether and maybe go shoot some hoops and have a brew.
Page 12 of 31
August 21, 2008
The Stories the Candidates Aren't Telling Us: Politics as Usual

http://llinlithgow.com/PtW/2008/08/the_stores_the_candidates_aren.html
After the break you' ll find a rather large collection of political readings excerpts that trace out the evolution of the
campaign. If you click on the blue title it' s a URL in disguise and will take you to the on-line original, presuming it' s
still available. But just skimming them tells an interesting and powerful story about a hiatus that' s moving/moved
thru three stages; and into which the readings are organized. First there was continued puzzlement and confusion
as to what the candidates stood and stand for. Next was them wrestling with their campaigns, messages, staffs,
tactics and key messages in the "lull" prior to the
convention when things will really kick off and more
people will start paying attention. Third is the most recent
period as the answers gell out to these field experiments
but unfortunately they aren' t going to be what we' d like -
at least on this blog. More unfortunately the "wrong"
answers are working.
Where'
s My Gettysburg Speech?
Strangely enough several of the last posts are actually

mutually reinforcing. Some readers may have wondered
what the post on stories and values (Stories We Tell
Ourselves: Values, Culture and Change) had to do with
geo-politics and current affairs. But in fact it'
s the stories
that the candidates tell us that help us understand them,
whether or not they will be the best representative of our
interests, and good leaders for the broader welfare of the
country.
At the end of July we put up a post that walked thru this

question of voice in some detail and found that neither
candidate had found their voices as yet. (Voice, Leadership, Messages, Realities: Living in a Tough World) Voice
in the sense of being able to tell us, as the great poets and artists did, how to make sense of things, that capture
the essence of complex things and present them in graspable terms, and convince us that there lies a workable
approach and a person to trust.
If you don' t think stories are critically important to changing things we urge you to consult the career of '
ol Abe,
who told better stories that cut to the heart of complex issues better than almost anyone else in US history. If you
don' t believe us read the Gettysburg address - a few short lines that captured the heart of what this country is
about, why we are a democracy, needed to be a union and the ultimate value of the ultimate sacrifices. Four
huge, complex ideas compressed to their most basic essence. Of course there are some modern leaders who do
relatively well - meaningful eloquence is still around. Try this if you don't believe it: MLK: "I Have a Dream".
Let's hope they find their voices because, as recent events are making clearer by the day, it's an ugly, complex
and scary world. The good news is that we' ve learned this are honest, well-intentioned and principled men who
have the best interests of the country at heart. (Welcome to Saddleback: the Candidates, Pastor Rick and Some
Real Answers) Though their personalities and approaches are vastly different even though, again strangely, on
many issues their policy differences are small when put under a microscope. For example on Energy, Off-shore
Drilling, the Environment or - when you parse thru - on Iraq ! Of course there are others where the differences are
very pronounced. As best we can tell :).
So in lieu of a "gettysburg" on the major policy issues what we' re getting is what they seem to be able to do
instead. Which is a return to old-school politics - though still with more civility than any of the last four elections
Page 13 of 31
IOHO. And sadly, sounds bytes, buzzwords, simple-minded explanations, obfustication and (modest) distortion
and attack ads are working. Shame on US !!
Campaign Status
In the readings you' ll find URL pointers to several poll

analysis articles as well as two publicly available
NBC/WSJ polls for July and this month. The story' s
pretty much the same - it' s still open-ended, the picture
isn' t as clear as it could/should be, but things are
beginning to swing in Johnboy' s favor more than a
little. Peggy Noonan has a very prescient column in
which she anticipates this groundshift without being
able to pin it down - more kudos to her for taking a shot
when she couldn' t be crisp. But on those poll results things are indeed beginning to really run neck-n-neck. As this
chart from Real Clear Politics will make clear. Barry' s not finding his voice and Johnboy'
s finding an alternative.
Given that Barry' s got a tougher problem being Mr.
Nuance he' d better get it in gear.
Electoral Votes
That being said Barry has proven to be one of the best

political strategists and tactical operators, as well as a
really effective CEO/organizer that we' ve seen in
decades. Which is another way of saying he' s putting his
money in the right places, the right ways with the right
people, tools and messages (as distinct from "Voice").
Put a third way he may be far ahead on Electoral
College votes. Your first response will likely be red vs
blue state again but there' s a couple of things to
remember. When you break it down in detail it actually
turns out to be urban vs suburb/rural. The next thing to
remember is that there' s a lot of "battleground states"
that could cause big shifts - hence the leaning and toss-
up rankings.
Electoral College II
And the third thing to recall is that they don'

t partition EC
votes out based on proportions of votes. This is actually
a very....very good thing though it may seem harsh.
What it does is force a decision and ensure a clear-cut
result. As it happens that' s a major factor contributing to
the stability of the US election system rather than the
swoop, swirl, shifting alliances and shaky ground you
end up with in a lot of Parliamentary systems; e.g.
France, Italy, Spain, Israel, usw. The Brits seem to be
the only folks who' ve managed to turn a parliamentary
system into a stable 2-party one but then they invented it
really and have been practicing for a millennia. Anyway
enough beating around - if we force (or RCP does) a
clear choice based on things right now the results are very....very interesting.
Page 14 of 31
August 23, 2008
Stories They Need to Tell: a Policy Challenge Review

http://llinlithgow.com/PtW/2008/08/stories_they_need_to_tell_a_po.html
It'
s all well and good to talk about how the campaign is going, how the candidates need to find their voices, what
good men they were revealed to be and so
on. But as the last couple of weeks have
revealed it' s still a serious, challenging and
ugly world out there. As it happens both the
latest NYT/CBS and WSJ/NBC polls come
to similar conclusions: 1) you guys are nice
guys but you' re in a deadlock because b)
you haven' t made yourselves clear about
what c) the major issues are in ways that
are convincing.
To quote from the NYT story excerpted after

the break:
"Senators Barack Obama and John

McCain are heading into their conventions
neck and neck in the presidential race, with
voters focused overwhelmingly on economic
issues but convinced that the candidates
are not paying enough attention to their
priorities, according to the latest New York
Times/CBS News poll. Slim majorities said
neither candidate had made clear what he would do as president..."
What we' d like to do here - likely in two parts - is use some relatively recent stories and columns combined with
various work of ours to summarize the major policy challenges in Domestic and Foreign Affairs. As we had into
the conventions this isn' t a bad list. Moreover because it' s been sorted and categorized according to the structure
we' ve used before in how things are related and what needs to be concentrated on, in what order but in a
balanced fashion, you can go into the upcoming weeks with your own checklist of evaluation criteria. Or at least a
way of developing one.
Here' s my own personal

model/blueprint of what the major
issues are, how they cluster and
what the key relationships are.
Starting at the top this is indeed a
time for change but the question is
what changes? My suggestion is
that the top-level changes required
re-recovery of core civic values and
virtues that combine self-
responsibility with proper public
policy (civilized adulthood?). And
that we need to re-think some/many
of the governing mechanisms that
have subsidized the capturing of the
political processes by partisans and
special interests.
Page 15 of 31
If you won' t change the mechanisms you can, as my dad used to say, "wish in one hand and xxx in the other.
which' ll get full ?"
Strangely enough the concerns, anxieties and attitudes of many seem to mirror that. We then sort the major "line-
item" talking points into major clusters - the ones where we need a coherent, comprehensive, workable and
realistic set of policy principles because they are critically important. How do we relate to the world and manage
those relationships ? What should we do, and can we do about our deteriorating economic situation ? "What do
we need to do to arrest, recovery and move forward domestically ? You' ll find the readings below grouped into
rough correspondence. In addition we' ve gone back and combed thru a bunch of the prior postings in each areas
that took deep dives and listed them as well.
While we' re going to pick up Foreign Affairs in a future post and concentrate on Economic and Domestic ones
here let'
s offer up a brief strawman.
Foreign Affairs: while normally this is the single most critical area, and will always be vitally important, the
weight may be shifting. In any case Iraq is coming under control though it will need a sustained commitment.
Afghanistan is at a similar point that Iraq was a couple of years ago but the most immediately dangerous problem
is Pakistan which may be imploding before our eye. Meanwhile Russia' s behavior has indicted the hidden
presumptions that a "New World Order" of international cooperation was built on. However IOHO they are neither
strong enough nor resilient enough to be a serious long-term threat and are containable. The most serious, if not
urgent, long-term policy issue is our relationship with China. And then India. With whom we should still be able to
re-architect a viable, stable and peaceful world system if we' re willing. Despite Russia.
Economy: this is the single most important challenge because it is the bedrock foundation of everything else,
the least understood, the most badly explained and the one where both candidates are failing to deliver a clear,
comprehensible view. And the one where we' re in the most immediate, intermediate and long-term trouble. The
good news is that all of the problems are addressable and perhaps fixable, if not in months. In fact they will
require sustained effort over years, perhaps decades. The most immediate one of which is the on-coming
recession coupled with the need to re-structure the financial system and re-vamp our regulatory framework. Next
up is improving the infrastructure of the economy which can also serve as an intermediate term stimulus program
that pays for itself in the long-run. In the long-run we need to find new sources of innovation and growth which
suggest serious investments in R&D, pilot programs and most especially in Energy and Bio-sciences. Again a
place where the return on investment is potentially phenomenal.
Domestic Policy: there are a lot of things that need work from Social Security to Healthcare. Again they are
all, without exception, addressable and many reasonable proposals have been put forward that would resolve a
lot of the difficulties. The single most important one and perhaps the most intractable is Education. Which,
demonstratably, is the most critical domestic element of our future prosperity in this changing world, the area
where we' ve known change is needed and where all our own evil demons have gotten in our way the most. But,
as they used to say in the Foreign Legion, "March or Die". Or in our case "Adapt or Fall Behind".
September 01, 2008
Politics and Policy: Convention to Consequences

http://llinlithgow.com/PtW/2008/09/politics_and_policy_convention.html
Let's catch up a little bit on the political and policy news. After the break we' ve clustered some readings excerpts
that look at the Democratic Convention, some other political news and some major policy issues. Make no
mistake the Democrats had a remarkable convention. Actually it was going to be remarkable in one way or
another for several reasons. Fortunately for all of us it turned out remarkably positive on many fronts. Headed into
the convention there were major problems in bringing the Hillary supporters back into the party, in establishing the
credibility of Barry with the voters as a guy who, if he clearly wasn' t one of them, understood their problems, in
Page 16 of 31
moving from the cerebral and ethereal to the practical, pragmatic and substantive and in energizing the party and
larger public.
On the whole there was no commentator who felt that any one of those could be accomplished, at least well. And
certainly not all of them And early in the convention, especially after Hillary's speech - as the excerpts show - it
looked like the problems were getting worse with Hillary damming with faint praise and setting herself up to catch
the standard after it fell and position for 2012 ! The level of bitterness was apparently severe or worse. Instead,
starting with Michelle Obama' s speech there was a careful crafted convention that moved from strength to
strength. The Clintons and their supporters were brought into the fold - Bill made a great speech if not a heartfelt
one and one always has to wonder at the sincerity. And Teddy main a real old-fashioned barn-burner which was a
tribute to his courage and dedication as well as the shibboleths of the Democratic past.
But the real keys were what had to be extraordinarily well-crafted, coordinated and delivered speeches by
Michelle, Joe Biden and Barry. Early on the key strategic themes were established and worked and worked. Until
we get to Barry' s speech. Now a political speech, especially at a convention, is largely supposed to be emotive.
And this one was but it was also substantive. If you compare Barry' s speech to our prior assessment of key policy
priorities he literally ticked them off right down our list. In what we think is the right priority order and with the sub-
points being pretty much the right ones, whether it was the economy, energy, domestic policy or foreign policy.
We' ll try and dig into in more detail but his only real problem is that the initiatives he's proposing aren' t affordable
without increased deficits. On the other hand, and holding his feet to the fire on those isn' t a fair test at a
convention, one can still legitimately argue for the ROI. The return on investment - these are all the right major
strategic initiatives and if we want to fix those problems it makes sense to borrow the funds to make the capital
investment for the sake of future, long-term growth and social well-being.
So take a gander. Better yet listen to the speeches. As it happens C-Span not only has them all online but put
them over on YouTube and I put together a playlist for you.
Page 17 of 31
September 14, 2008
911 Memorial: Fix the Problem Don't Repeat the Crash

http://llinlithgow.com/PtW/2008/09/911_memorial_fix_the_problem_d.html
I was of several minds about whether or not to tackle

this and put it off but in my mind real respect for the
victims of 911 is to do something about it. Not have
another maudlin remembrance and go back and re-
create the disaster all over again for the same reasons.
So in that spirit we're going to start with 911 and re-
treat it as the wake-up call it was and then point out
that much of the substance of he 911 commission
report has yet to be enacted, let alone implemented.
But it'
s not just the changes in security, defense and
foreign policy that the Commission called for that are in
dire straits as the result of the same fundamental flaws.
And are coming home to roost (look up ROC on
Wikipedia for how big these birds are going to be). So
in addition to talking a bit about continuing failures
related to 911 we' re going to tackle, briefly, two other major breakdowns that result from the same policy-making
dysfunctions. One of the things I like about political cartoons is that whether you agree or disagree they're a good
indicator of the feelings, attitudes and spread of same. The opening cartoon is sadly funny but not right on in my
book. In fact it's got a couple of major flaws.
Were you ever in a small town, neighborhood, city what

have you that had a "Deadman' s Corner"? You know the
place where the preponderance of accidents seemed to
happen. Now there was always some reasonable
explanation for each accident: drugged out teenagers,
bad storm, road repairs, whatever. But somehow that one
corner always got 60+% of the serious accidents. And
nobody bothered to ask why - that is what design flaw
was causing the accidents to happen in the same spot.
That's called a "systemic risk" - that is there'

s a flaw in the
fundamental operation of the whole system - after all
drunks, teenagers, storms and repairs are part of life. And
there wasn' t a rash of accidents all up and down the rest
of the highway - just CRASH CORNER! Well we' re in the
process of re-creating and re-experience a slew of
crashes in several different areas and all due to the same systemic flaws. Which to my mind is perfectly captured
by the next political cartoon - the only one I've found that is truly respectful of the 911 dead because it doesn'
t
deny the source of the problem. Our own unwillingness to face reality.
Page 18 of 31
2nd Failure Source: Institutional Breakdown
Now after the break we back up that assertion with a series of

readings excerpts on National Security, the collapse of the
Frannie twins (btw - in case you don't follow the news last
weekend the two biggest financial institutions were taken over
by the government. And this weekend Lehman Brothers is
headed for bankruptcy, Merrill has been bought by Bank of
America, Washington Mutual and AIG insurance aren' t in
much better shape), and on energy policy. In each case we
find the second major systemic flaw - and the same one. Now
in each of the readings sections we've not only listed some key
excerpts in these areas but also the pointer to a prior post of
ours that provides background context.
So for 911 and Security policy there' s a prior collection, for the
Frannie breakdown a couple of our economic/market posts
from this weekend that may be a little technogeeky but.... and
our post on a national energy policy for that. Now if you click
on the Twin Towers picture where you actually go is a 2004
panel discussion at the Kennedy School on the aftermath of
911 and it's not a pretty picture. Just in case that doesn' t work
the pointer is repeated below along with an easy to use, read and understand version of the 911 report in
graphics form by Slate. Which is unfortunately no longer free online - you have to buy a copy.
Some Teaser Points

Notice we didn' t characterize the second major fundamental breakdown. Rather we' re hoping you' ll reach a
similar conclusion to ours in your own words and thoughts by watching the KSG vidclip (the whole thing is 90 min
but the first 30 min are the panel). The first two pointers after the break btw are to two earlier posts of ours laying
out all the machinery in detail that will give you a very complete and thorough diagnostic toolkit. As well as some
approaches to fixing it. But let me see if we can get your dandruff up with a few summary points.
1. 911 was the result of a sustained period of ignoring the world as it is and treating terrorism as a police problem
instead of a security problem but has it'
s real roots in the self-righteous emasculation of the intelligence agencies
by the Church Commission in the ' 70s. In other words we created terrible long-term problems for ourselves by
making short-term feel good decisions that had terrible long-term consequences. Wow, deja vu'all over again
Pogo. By the way, in passing, the two Senators who took the lead on breaking some of the post-' 04 legislative
logjams were named Liebermann and McCain.
2. Our problems with the insolvency of Frannie aren' t like nobody wasn'
t trying to fix the problem. In fact, as you'
ll
read, George Bush, Alan Greenspan and a host of others tried to start a major re-structuring of the Bloated Twins
but were stopped dead by their lobbying clout with Congress. Guess who the four largest recipients of their
political contributions was....read it for yourself.
3. Energy policy is a great irony. Was just chatting with my neighbor and telling him that back in my days as a
resource economist every single proposal on the table right now was on the table then. And btw we actually have,
believe it or not, a National Energy Policy and it' s a pretty good one. Just not implemented. Guess what - it too
was one of the earliest policy initiatives of President Bush and couldn' t make it thru the Congressional barriers
and special interests lobbying (that' s another hint btw). Here's another with an example: Having Fun, Doing Good,
Making Sausage: Goodtime Charlie'
s War
Now we're not holding up a brief for any party or politician here. At the end of the Clinton Administration Larry
Summers took a serious pass at the Frannie Twins too. And got as far as Uncle Alan and George W. And for the
same reasons. Like we pointed out in the last post policy makers and politicians often have a much better idea of
Page 19 of 31
what needs to be done than we know, or give them credit for. They just can'
t sell it no matter how hard they try.Oil
and Other System Shocks: Beyond Iraq & Georgia
At least until the dire consequences that you' ve been warned about are so serious and painful that you'
re willing
to do the hard stuff. You see the third major barrier is us - we're the ones that refuse to buy in and
instead go with the snake oil salesmen. As the record proves over and over again.
So if you'
re truly interested in change don'
t buy the snake oil - take the real medicine, eat right, loose weight and
exercise. Or face the penalties.
September 06, 2008
Politics and Policy II: Next Convention, Any Consequences?

http://llinlithgow.com/PtW/2008/09/politics_and_policy_ii_next_co.html
Well now that we' re past the Republican convention it' s time to try our
first pass summary and interpretations. Like the Democratic
conventions there were many things that surprised me, only this time
not as positively on the whole. There are at least three clusters of
things being woven together at any convention. First, there' s the
political business to be done. In Denver the challenge was to bring
everybody together, bridge the Billary gap and get everybody
energized and marching together. McCain had a similar and longer-
standing challenge with the far right so-called base (it wouldn' t be the
base if it hadn't been pandered to for years by a politics of divisiveness;
nor would the Republicans have lost their grip on the center as they
have).
Second the candidate and the key speech makers have to establish
the themes, key messages, elements of substance and lines of policy
and strategy on which they' re going to attempt to close to the finish. In 2004 the Dims convention was dismal at
this, represented by the long, disjointed, dis-organized and incoherent speech of the candidate. It went downhill
from their. This time both candidates, conventions and parties did enormously better. The Democrats did superbly
IMHO while the Republicans did so so at best for reasons we' ll get into. If you want to check out my summary
take from the D' s try this: Politics and Policy: Convention to Consequences.
The third thing, building on the line of policy and strategy development is that the candidates have to establish
enough substance to their policies to move from arm-waving to serious issues. It' s in this area that the D
convention was enormously surprising to me - first how well the basic themes were introduced and coordinated in
one giant weaving across all the speakers, Hillary but not Bill excepted. But no matter, by the end she was under
control, her partisans were in the tent and she and her bitterness became irrelevant. Especially after Gov. Palin
spoke and proved that breaking the glass ceiling don' t require chips on both shoulders and knee-spikes. Now in
the prior post we referred you to our YouTube playlist for the D' s with the comment that you really need to listen
yourself. That playlist selected the key speeches that I thought were and are worth your time; they' re all excellent.
The RCon speeches are now also in a YouTube playlist courtesy of C-Span. This time though I can' t recommend
listening to them all, and that gets to the heart of the matter.
Reflections and Observations
In no particular order but as they occur to me here are some observations, buttressed by the readings you' ll find
after the break, which are divided into two groups. Political analysis (with several David Brooks columns - one of
which is the single worst I've ever seen him write using very clever sophomoric humor to parody Barry' s speech
Page 20 of 31
and the rest of which meet his usual exceptional standards of writing, insight and wisdom. One can take his
terrible Barry column as a bad day and confirmation of my argument that the substance of the speech was
outstanding; and therefore scary to a conservative).
1. The three best speeches were Palin' s, Johnboy' s and Joe's.

Palin's in fact was funny as the dickens and well worth your
time to listen to as the collection of one-liners delivered with
humor and without malice are a refreshing change all around.
They' re also dead on zingers that will eventually have to be
answered. The attacks on Palin prior to the speech were,
IMHO, greatly out of line and are going to backfire. The people
making them are too narrow in their grasp of what they rest of
America is like.
There' s a whole post here on cultural differences from

somebody who grew up in the West and lives in the Northeast
but trust me - a women who can clean her catch and dress her
kill while still being charming, cute, intelligent and forceful is a
tribute to our society. Not an indictment of it - and the left-
wingers who' ve reversed five decades of feminist rhetoric when
confronted with a women who really does do it all do nothing
but embarrass and indict themselves. Fortunately Joe Biden and Barry are class acts and stood up in her
defense. A new chapter in Hofstadter' s book on fanatics is being written for the posthumous new edition.
2. Similarly Johnboy and the the other speakers showed a great deal of class in praising their opponents as
opposed to the last twelve years of demonization. A refreshing change, long overdue and getting to the heart of
what we need to do to move forward (Pastor Rick' s points about tolerance and civic responsibilities). They struck
me as very sincere but in point of fact who cares - as long as they act that way that works for me. Outstanding.
We' re lucky in general to have these people - all four of them. And the Rips in particular are lucky to have
Johnboy without whom they would be deservedly in the wilderness.
3. Personally I couldn' t listen to many of the other speeches - political hackmanship with no style, grace or foward-
looking substance. Giuliani and Romney in particular made backward looking partisan speeches, which we know
they don't really believe in from their own candidacies (though in Mitt' s case who knows what he believes in). But
they spoke to the heart of the traditional Rip, as opposed to Reps, concerns. This was Newt the Grinch' s partisan
polemics at it'
s propagandistic worst. And is fully captured in the ideologies embedded in the Rip platform. The
gap between what Johnboy' s been saying and the ideological purity of that platform and those speeches is wider
than the gap between John and reality or Barry. In fact on many of his key points he, Gov. Barracuda and Joe L.
sounded remarkably like their opponents.
4. Particularly when they started talking about representing America, not a party. And critiquing the Ripoffs for
eight years of corruption and malfeasance. Below in the readings you' ll find several pieces related to that,
including the one on Jack the Ripper' s (many puns intended) most recent sentencing hearings at which he
expressed great remorse. Meanwhile of course penning his memoirs blaming it all on everybody else - talk about
your self-centered, self-serving, cynical opportunist !
Brief Policy Observations
You won' t find much if any of that in the commentariat' s discussions - hence the need to listen for yourselves. But
what' s maybe an hour - you' ll spend more time than that making up your next grocery list. As you listen bear in
mind what we' ve been saying about the layers of meaning - conventions are the time to introduce policy directions
and themes, not detailed proposals. But if you listen reasonably, but not too much so, carefully you' ll hear a lot to
like and agree with in Johnboy' s speech. In fact the differences between him and Barry on key issues is pretty
narrow. He started with different priorities and was really light, i.e. non-existent, on the economy. And not as
Page 21 of 31
comprehensive, organized and substantive as Barry. (Barry'

s speech was a policy wonk like me'
s ideal political
speech). Nonetheless...
1. Johnboy started with foreign policy, building off a very candid and revealing discussion of his personal history,
as you' d expect. But when you parse it out the differences between him and Barry on Iraq are now, as the result
of the Surge and COIN tactical innovations, very narrow. Both are for withdrawal with a permanent long-term
presence, both want to move on and so forth. In case you didn' t know btw Pakistan is in the process of putting
Bhutto's widower into the Presidency so that he can restore the kleptocracy that brought down the last civilian
governments. Anyway Barry and Johnboy are just about on the same page with regard to Russia and Johnboy
went out of his way to emphasis the importance he places on "softpower" and diplomacy. (Iraq Resartus
(Readings): Stability, Progress and Will, Brave New World: Non-Flatness, History and
Challenges)
2. While John was more than a little disingenuous on many of the policy issues regarding his opponent - in fact in
most of the places where he accused Barry of something it not only wasn' t true but was contradicted. But again
you have to listen to both speeches.
• Energy - actually both are for a balanced national energy policy aiming at long-term
independence using offshore drilling, alternative source, coal and nuclear as well as the green
stuff. You can tick down our list of a balanced energy strategy and find they both hit every point
with reasonably proper weightings. They both even used the same $700B can't be exported
quote! (In Search of a Nat'lEnergy Policy: Check the Mirror Pogo)
• Education - more agreement in not despite John's accusations to the contrary. In fact nearly
identical upto and including Barry's use of the line that bad teachers need to find another line of
work which John then turned around and re-used.(Readings(Education): the Single Most Important
Domestic Policy Issue)
• Healthcare - you won't belive how close the both are to the same policy and how close that closet
policy is to what the majority of knowledable experts and economists think it should be.
Fortunately there's a great blog post we've listed that walks you thru that.
3. Economy - well one of Barry' s great strengths, both in terms of putting it first, listing out all the components and
coming up with a resonable set of recommendations. Johnboy was very weak here overall and passed over it too
lightly. This will be and is the central issue in this election. BtW - in case you missed it Fannie and Freddie
(Frannie) are having a major rescue mounted this weekend before their collapse takes Western Civilization into a
new dark age (not really kidding in any way about this - see the link the readings). (A Little Off-Topic: the Credit Crisis, the
Economy & You) Barry proposed major re-thinkings of our regulatory infrastructure which is vital. He also linked his
efforts to grow the economy to long-term energy and other innovation investments.
Strangely enough their recommendations for how to deal with trade adjustments and globalization were identical.
That is we can' t escape a global economy but we can help people find new jobs - in fact Johnboy' s detailed
program (his most) wouldn' t have sounded too out of place from Robert Reich a few years back. Amazing. And
correct. In fact, whether you believe it or not, they both support market economies, institutional reform and helping
the winners compensate the losers while investing in future jobs thru innovation, technology and education.
(Standing Corrected: Education 2nd Avoiding Economic Collapse 1rst, Readings (Economy): It
Really is the Economy, Stupid Frog)
This is, collectively, the most rational discussion of economic policy by politicians in a major, in fact THE, forum
I'
ve heard in my lifetime.
Page 22 of 31
October 08, 2008
Crisis, Debates and Leadership? Yeah, Right.

http://llinlithgow.com/PtW/2008/10/crisis_debates_and_leadership.html
The good news, such as it is, about the sudden

explosion of the credit and economic crisis is that we' re
getting to watch both our prospective leaders in a tough
situation. Make no mistake this is a real 3a.m. call and
how they' ve both responded to it tells us a lot. And then
we have the debates, which are much less revealing but
in that lack of revelation also might have something to
say. After the break you' ll find a bunch of skimmable
excerpts that trace out the last couple of weeks and the
candidates reactions, some discussions of the debates
and a couple of carefully selected assessments of last
night's in the context of the crisis.
On the whole these are not shining moments for either

candidate, neither is doing too badly but, on-balance,
Barry has played a more careful and successful game.
Wile Johnboy badly wrong-footed himself with his grandstanding and what appears to be tone-deafness. We' ll get
to our specific handicapping of last night in a bit but to understand the situation take a look at "Meet the Press'"
survey of the Electoral Map and it's sudden huge shifts in Barry' s favor. Now Real Clear Politics (RCP National
Average) has Barry over JB by 49 to 44 and In-Trade puts his odds at 73%.
The key here is not so much that 5pt lead as it is the electoral shift. For an excellent discussion of the background
context this Rose panel discussion, supposedly focused on the VP debate, has more to say about the situation
and the candidates and is one of the better ones. Between those and our prior post (Calm Down: the Fat Lady
Ain'
t Sung, Yet.) the argument that JB has wrong-footed himself seems to be covered beyond a need for more
detail; and the readings will reinforce the assertion.
Assessing the Debate

Given all that going into last night' s debate Barry had to not make any major mistakes while JB needed to come
up with something new. First goal achieved, second stillborn. But neither stepped up and really either took any
chances nor offerred a compelling assessment of the situation or a convincing path forward. That said, on the
whole - and you had to listen carefully - Barry did offer up a correct strategic economic plan or plans, JB offered
up one tactical but workable suggestion but still doesn' t get how serious this is and with regard to Economics and
the crisis I have to give it to Barry.
In judging the debate there are three major strands being woven together all at once and you have to filter out two
of them. The first is that politics is a matter of the heart, not the head. You may have a technically correct
understanding and recommendation but if you can' t explain and sell it then de nada; it doesn't matter. (Marketing
Elephant Pills: Struggling to Explain the Rescue) On the other hand you can focus on just the selling and forget
the substance. Which is all too often what our politics has been in the last twenty years. What politicians know or
they aren't in the game is that first you start with the appeal to the lizard-brain with the right labels and use that to
present your program. Given that' s what most people judge by instead of substance and analysis it' s as natural an
outcome as breathing. The third thing politicians do is try to slap a label on their opponent and get them
associated with bad thoughts and both candidates played that hand over and over again. My own opinion is
enough already, we heard you, it' s not convincing and it's certainly not useful. And judging from some of the polls
Page 23 of 31
and interviews that'

s a general reaction. The problem is it'
s not general enough and people do buy into those
labels.
Once you filter things out what you' re left with is the hints of substance. Ironically once you do that, and something
we've mentioned before, both candidates are closer to each other and a pragmatic and progressive middle than
they can afford to admit. For example on Energy both are essentially saying we need a concerted national effort
that includes all the options in a balanced fashion, from coal and nuclear to wind and solar.
On Healthcare they' re actually both pretty close and market-oriented - we've come a long way from Billarycare II
and an even longer way from not being on the agenda. Interestingly enough McCain' s healthcare proposal is the
most radical and addresses one of the biggest problems which is because it' s paid for by tax-free dollars by
employers it' s subsidized, restricted to only those working for big companies and not portable. By bringing it out in
front of the tax barrier all those are addressed, nobody gets hurt and it's a darn sensible financing mechanism.
BtW with the proposed tax credit the net effect for most folks is no different than they have but it's enormously
more flexible. In the long-run I' ll bet some version of JB'
s plan gets adopted insofar as financing goes - it just
makes too much sense and is too workable.
They still have some serious divergences on foreign affairs and in this area more than anything Barry scares me.
You don' t in fact announce to the world that you' re going to attack Pakistan. JB has a much better command of
the terrain on a tactical level - that is in specific problems where he' s worked he has mastery. But he has no
overall framework - which is a major weakness. When you parse it all out, again, despite the labeling and
perjorations the differences are smaller than they were and close to realities. My biggest worry about Barry here is
his blunt refusal to backdown on the Surge by hearkening back to the original decision. Hindsight is great but we
are where we are. What would you do in the circumstances?
Which leaves the economic crisis as the main differentiator IMHO. And there JB came up with one solid tactical
proposal, buy down mortgages and make the banks and owners eat some losses, which I consider sensible,
workable and necessary. BtW it' s also in my own seven-point economic blueprint among s.t. emergency fixes
along with major strategic initiatives: Readings (Economy): It Really is the Economy, Stupid Frog I strongly suggest you
review as a checklist for last night's debate.
You need to be real clear about this despite both candidates dodging and loosing my respect and indicting their
credibility. If we get the wheels of credit turning we've still got a major Housing problem and an organic downturn
that'
s worsening by the day. And it' s been visible for months. The candidate who came out and said that and
explained it so that people got it would be the one you want. Of course if you' re not sure and botch the
explanation that' d just panic the sheeple over the cliff and make the situation worse. Maybe playing safeball isn'
t
such a bad idea after all, eh?
The bottomline is that Barry marched right down my list while JB was still arm-waving about tax cuts and how he'
d
fix things. Not serious. Even less serious and much more dangerous were his candidates for Treasury Secretary.
If you read nothing else read Perlstein's assessment and that article.
Bon Appetit'
Page 24 of 31
October 14, 2008
Populist Panderings, the Candidates and Real Solutions

http://llinlithgow.com/PtW/2008/10/populist_panderings_the_candid.html
Well the last of the debates are tonight and THE focal issue, as it
should be, is the state of the economy. In our last post (Wobble
Wheels Wakeup: Crisis, Response, Policy, Execution) we
discussed the situation beyond the various worldwide rescue and
re-vitalization efforts. In particular a key point we' ll re-iterate is that
once we get the wheels bolted back on the wagon we need to
keep careening down a rather icy mountain sloped. A serious
recession is pretty much in the cards and locked-in. The only real
debate is how deep and how long; and this one is likely to be
longer and deeper than anything many folks have seen for a long
time.
One of the "interesting" anecdotes making the rounds in the
financial community is that all the advisers aren' t getting any
phone calls ! It would seem that people are so shell-shocked that
they're still trapped in the 1,000-yard stare syndrome. For my own
part the contacts from family, friends and network more than
reinforces that. We saw a more than generational collapse in the
markets all collapsed into basically week. They come by their shock very....very honestly.
We had to talk a bunch of folks out of selling their existing portfolios on Mon. open - which meant they would have
missed the run up that mostly recovered the worst day from last week. We' re far from out of the woods yet. In the
readings the first one, finally, puts the emphasis where it needs to be - all these worldwide interventions are NOT
quick fixes. Now we' ve been talking up the economy as THE central issue in this election for months (WRFest
20Jan08(Economics): Oops...Recession Ahead,The Coming Economic Crisis,Standing
Corrected: Education 2nd Avoiding Economic Collapse 1rst) and outlined our sketch of a multi-faceted
program that moves beyond arresting the immediate problems to looking at what needs to be done next and then
beyond that. Which we thought we' d review here a little more.
Comprehensive & Strategic Economic Program
Given all that what should we be doing - and therefore what should be looking for in tonight' s debate. Well two
things. One as close to this outline as possible and two minimal populist pandering, bearing in mind "nobody can
handle the truth". That said in both his acceptance speech and the last debate Barry basically walked right down
our reccy' s while Johnboy appears to be improvising as he goes and throwing out one offs - not an integrated
program. You might/ought/should invest the time to listen to this interview very carefully - from the guy who' s
called it for three years now!
Nouriel Roubini, New York University, Economics Professor Nouriel Roubini, an economist who
predicted the depth and magnitude of the current financial situation before the decline of Bear Sterns,
discusses the indicators he saw and his recommendations for stemming the financial downturn.
Step 1: Get Credit Flowing Again - we've been discussing this almost exclusively for the last several
posts. While it'
s still very early days yet we think that the basic elements are in place and being acted on as
rapidly as possible.
Step 2: "FIX" Housing - we're not going to get the economy back on it's feet while Housing continues to
drag so much. At the same time too many people bought too many houses for unsupportable prices with funny
Page 25 of 31
money. Until prices come down significantly MORE it won' t start self-correcting. In other words we need for the
homeowners and the lenders to take another 15% haircut, write it off and re-negotiate the loans to something
more sensible. And it'
ll need a serious institutional framework.
Step 3: Major Fiscal Stimulus - the last so-called recovery was put together on the Housing ATM and was
pumping $500-700B/year into the economy at least. The economy will fall into a major serious recession unless
we stimulate it and that stimulus needs to be of the same order of magnitude. This also needs to be quick,
targeted and temporary - not another political boondoggle (fat chance I know but....). Tax cuts won' t do it. On the
other hand the impact on the deficit is irrelevant for a lot of reasons (still be low as a % of GDP, worse w/o
stimulus). Things like extended unemployment benefits, more rebates, and direct spending programs fit the bill.
Lots of very...y good economists like Larry Summers have tabled excellent proposals (btw - Barry' s econ team is
non-pareil and Larry' s on it. See below).
Step 4: Infrastructure Investment -the US has let it's electrical, waterway and transportation
infrastructures deteriorate to the point of...well never mind. A massive decade long infrastructure rebuilding
project would see us get new electrical grids, new highways and transportation systems and possibly new power
plants and alternative energy supplies. This would have the benefit of providing enormous fiscal stimulus, i.e.
creating jobs and making a major long-term investment for things we know how to do. BtW - major sidebar. The
long boom of the ' 80s and ' 90s was primarily built around two things. Supply side is utter nonsense. Reagan got it
going the old-fashioned way with deficit spending and Clinton got lucky and also cut the defense budget. Bingo,
that's it.
Step 5: Strategic Investment (Energy, Biosystems, Materials) - we need new industries and we
need to get off of our oil dependencies. There'
s things we can do in each and both. For example by increasing
conservation as well as mandating enormously higher mileage thru better materials and engineering we could get
a huge jump for the next ten years. Then we need to build new power plants, particularly nuclear, we need to
open up our own offshore deepwater to oil exploration and we need more refineries. That all together takes us
into the next decade. Beyond that we need some major alternatives - and don' t believe '
em. We don' t have the
knowledge or technology do magic yet. For example we should really be heavily emphasizing coal but need major
new technology not the Rube Goldberg fixes running around. So a concerted national effort (does the word
Manhattan Project ring any bells) to create major new energy sources and technologies would stimulate the
economy, create new industries and provide us several paths to the future.
Combine that we major parallel investments in new life sciences and materials, both because they offer the best
hopes for the Next Big Things and because they are synergistic with energy investments. For example if we pie-
in-the-sky about Fusion we need the new materials for the reactor vessels. Or new lightweight composites for
high-temperature turbines. Similarly new bio-sciences offer up their own benefits not least of which is designed
alternative energy crops as well as way to control and manage environmental problems. The real beauty of this is
that it doesn'
t take a lot now because it'
s all at early
stages.
Step 6 - Education Investment: the decline in

average income is due more to natural evolutionary
shifts in the kinds of labor demanded by an
increasingly technical economy. When the US
Economy really started on its'accelerated path after
the turn of the 19thC few know that a key ingredient
was the widespread development of high-schools and
the resultant upgrading of the skills and knowledge of
the population. Education is the co-dependent
imperative along with creating new industries IMHO.
(Readings(Education): the Single Most Important Domestic Policy
Issue)
Page 26 of 31
So there you have it in a nutshell :) A complete now to futures strategic economic policy recommendation. Believe
it or not it'
s at least a decent strawman based on reality, the ways things actually work instead of fantasies and
offers some real benefits. Test it against the candidates if you like. The results might be interesting ! The guy you
want to vote for is the one that comes closet to ticking off this strategic agenda, doesn't offer up utter unsinn
(German for nonsense and Supply Side III more than qualifies), has the best team and sounds like he' s got a
better grasp. We highly recommend you at least skim the readings to get a feel for how they stack up therein. And
also to help you decide on where you think economic policy lies on the importance spectrum. We happen to think
it is the sine qua non and will dominate the next Presidential term and outweigh almost any other issue short of a
major shooting war.
October 20, 2008
Rope-a-Dope at Hofstra: Handicapping the Debate and Results

http://llinlithgow.com/PtW/2008/10/ropeadope_at_hofstra_handicapp.html
Well now that the debates are so far behind us, the punditocracy has weighed in and we' ve had a chance to
contemplate the results let'
s weigh and assess them. At this point we' ve really and truly had a better chance to
evaluate these two candidates than any others. Starting with the Saddleback Interviews - which were very
revealing - and moving on thru three different and excellent debates. The last of which was the best as a debate
IOHO and that of many others. Most importantly we' ve had a chance to see the candidates and how they perform
with a real 0300 wake-up call. And for a final touch-me-up the candidates mutual roast speeches from the Al
Smith dinner are online and widely accessible. In some ways the best part of the campaign and revealing of
whole other sides of both.
Debate/Campaign Handicapping
In terms of judging the debates we laid out our filtering

process in a prior post (Crisis, Debates and Leadership
? Yeah, Right.) and haven' t seen any reason to change
either the filters or the conclusions. Briefly there's three-
parts - appeals to the lizard-brain (the hindbrain) or more
nicely put the heart, matters of substance and policy and
distortionate mis-labeling of the opponents position. Of
which both candidates are guilty. For example Barry and
his team have mis-represented Johnboy' s healthcare
proposals and tried to stick him with the Bush label.
More damagingly Johnboy and his time have tried the
"terrorist" label and built a pretty negative set of
campaign ads around that, ACORN and other severe
mis-representations. For example on Acorn alone - you
can register all the Micky Mice you want but to vote the
person in question has to show up at the poll and
present a valid Mouse id.
Think about that for a minute - calling that a major threat

to democracy, especially when at best it' s less than a
2% error rate, is beyond distortionate. Worse to spend
precious debate time whining about being abused and then within 90 sec. continuing on into these pejorative and
distorted attacks is not appealing to many. As the polls show. Especially when there are serious matters of
substance to be dealt with. All of this is reflected in an update version of an earlier chart showing our summary
judgment of the two candidates. What we' ve seen from Barry is a calm and cool head in crisis, an ability to explain
things and vastly increased substance that' s largely correct. Though JB has at least two proposals (mortgage
write-downs, healthcare) we' d like to see implemented. In contrast JB hasn' t fixed his problems but has worsened
Page 27 of 31
them - less and less on framing and explaining and more and more emotional attacks that'
re ungrounded and
pejorative. Combined with a very erratic performance in the crisis.
Matters of Substance
Speaking of which we carefully outlined what we feel is the

required integrated economic policy program and basically
heard it walked down in detail by Barry. Overall we' ve
actually heard more substance in this campaign that' s pretty
much aligned with our take on what strategic policy should
be than we' ve heard in a very long time. Just to remind you -
when we focus on serious matters and not the lizard-brain -
our take on policy is summarized in the accompanying
blueprint.
The really good news is that with regard to Energy,

Education and Healthcare all those are truly on the table,
have received serious and constructive proposals and, by-n-
large, the candidates have converged on workable centrist
positions. Oddly enough their positions on Iraq have also, for
all practical purposes converged as well, though you have to
listen between the lines of the distortions.
Our biggest remaining hesitancy about Barry is his continuing refusal to backdown on the surge combined with
his populist panderings on international trade policy. Yet when you listen carefully to Debate #1 both candidates
are closer to each other, believe it or not, than either is to any other candidate or anything that the rest of the
world thinks they' re going to see. The biggest differences are in Economic policy where JB keeps retreating to old
shibboleths of Supply Side III and slogans and mottoes instead of substance. Barry on the other hand not only
has outlined an integrated program but has gathered a beyond All-Star to Hall of Fame level advisory team and is
both listening to and guiding them. Given our views that Economic policy is the single most important issue cluster
facing us that almost overwhelmingly indicates support for him. (Populist Panderings, the Candidates and Real
Solutions)
Selling Substance to the Hindbrain
You can' t lead if you can'

t sell your solutions.
On the other hand you can' t accomplish
anything if your solutions are wrong-headed
either. So the trick is to balance out emotional
appeals with matters of substance while also
maintaining your political support AND
garnering support from new constituencies. A
difficult but necessary balancing act. We' ve
tried to capture and represent it with the
accompanying chart. See what you think.
The bottom of the chart shows the distribution

of voters by the long-term representation of
their views. We have about 13% who are
strong D' s and R' s but the vast majority of the
population is more centrist. Unfortunately for
many years the parties have campaigned and
tried to govern from their "bases", i.e. the
extremes. Which has the terrible consequence of replacing constructive policy with hindbrain appeals. Now the
vertical chart shows the distribution of how most folks make decisions - and since most don'
t have time to wade
Page 28 of 31
thru the details they decide with their (our) hearts. Though as the balance of idiotocracy punditry shows knowing a
lot hasn' t stopped a lot of commentators from hearing what they want to hear instead of helping us figure out
what' s really going on. On balance we think Barry has done a better job of synthesizing the heart and the head
and migrating toward the center while JB has retreated to some darker place in the heart.
In the readings section you' ll find three endorsements, of sorts for Barry that are startling in their own way. The
first is David Brooks'character appreciation. Read the excerpt because otherwise you won' t believe it. Next is the
Washington Post' s endorsement which is as fair and balanced an assessment as we' ve seen anyplace. And
finally there's Colin Powell'
s endorsement this weekend. The excerpt doesn' t begin to do him justice - click on thru
and listen to his Meet the Press interview. Hard-nosed, balanced and heartfelt. This is a man of integrity, honor
and ideals.
The last half of the readings are selected stories on key policy issues - match them against our blueprint if you
would on the one hand. And on the other against the issues the candidates have or haven' t addressed.
November 04, 2008
Campaigns, Candidates, Consequences: Some Assessments

http://llinlithgow.com/PtW/2008/11/campaigns_candidates_consequen.html
By and large in terms of evaluating the candidates and their positions as well as their behaviors we stand by the
two previous posts. (Populist Panderings, the Candidates and Real Solutions, Rope-a-Dope at Hofstra:
Handicapping the Debate and Results) So much so that from certain perspectives we have nothing to add
excepts some reflections and assessments. In our reflections we have two major learnings to share, three
strategic assessments and a final conclusion. Which we' ll preface by sharing a couple of anecdotes. A friend of
our recently accused us of gradually slipping over into being a closet Barry supporter while another suggested
that if we keep taking a dispassionate stance and attempting to be both balanced and nuanced the nutjobs would
hunt us down. C' est la vie. For the record we think we'
ve been following the data where it leads.
Two Key Learnings
1. First off we'

ve been surprised by the dominance of the hindbrain in most decision-making in this election, even
among our friends and acquaintances. Our second anecdote is a barside conversation with a lovely young lady
who somewhat more than in her cups confessed that she found Barry to be the embodiment of evil. More than a
tad extreme in our humble opinion and factually wrong from the point of view of her interests - Barry's proposed
tax cuts would work more to her benefit than Johnboy' s if they prove feasible which they won'
t. And his economic
strategies are pretty dead on with our checklists of the short-, intermediate and long-term requirements backed up
by a better team than any seen since Lord Keynes architected the post-war world at Bretton Woods.
2. Our second big learning was the extent to which these guys are actually both very self-aware, reflective and
haven' t missed anything (the last post gave the URL addresses for their Smith Dinner roasts which prove that
point). Complementing that observation is that one that it takes a crisis to force change - we' ve known what to do
about Healthcare, Energy, Education, et.al. and etc. for decades but couldn' t get the necessary political support
while all the grasshoppers partied on. (Oil and Other System Shocks: Beyond Iraq & Georgia,911 Memorial: Fix
the Problem Don' t Repeat the Crash). It'
s truly time for some substantive changes but it' s not entirely clear that
the voters either grasp reality, are aware of how hard this is going to be and neither candidate has laid it out so it'
s
graspable.
Page 29 of 31
Three Observations
1. First off appeals to the hind (or lizard) brain

have dominated the political discourse with
extensive perjoration by both sides but much
more so on Johnboy' s part. We've learned,
the hard way, that it's necessary first to sell
the heart, i.e. appeal to the emotions, before
persuading the forebrain thru reason. On the
whole, again IOHO, Barry has done a much
better job of speaking both to the center and
injecting substantive content into the
discussion. While Johnboy has waffled from
one tactic du jour to another, never settling on
a clear theme, messages or even tactics.
Which would tell us that certain requisites for
leadership are lacking in the man who' s
running on his leadership capacities.
2. The voters as a whole continue to be

extremely uncomfortable with Barry; he' s never managed to connect with them on an emotional level as best we
judge it. Part of this is his clear, cool, cerebral style and personality. A bigger part, we think, is that he represents
a major generational change and his nuanced, pluralistic approach to things is more consistent with the style of
the younger generation and its'sensibilities while JB' s style attempts to be more certain, blunt and straight-
forward. We think this lack of connection, not the race issue, is the real lingering doubt in voter' s minds. On the
other hand JB has run such a terrible, ill-organized and badly led campaign with a terrible organizational
execution that he hasn' t had to step forward. In an odd way he' s been free to play the strategic offense and the
tactical defense. JB has never established a strategy and has, as said, waffled on tactics du jour.
3. As a result of which we haven' t seen much truth-telling in this campaign. Some...but not a lot. But people are
definitely running scared. How that plays out will determine who wins - and the economic rescue fiasco pretty well
destroyed JB' s credibility - not to mention the fact that his general discussions of the most serious problems we
face has been backward-looking, simple-minded and un-resonate with the voters.
A Final Reflection
At the end of the day you man up and make the best choice you can based on the available data. We consider it
strangely and strongly ironic that those in our network who' re die-hard McCain supporters have watched him fail
to get organized, fail to establish a clear leadership position and violate his own ethical standards; or at least
permit his campaign to do so.
The choice may turn out to be wrong - even badly so - but since push comes to shove right now the data drive us
to make our best choice and then deal with the consequences. What we' ve attempted to do in these posts is filter
out the emotionally appealing labels each has tried to stick on the other, call foul when the perjoration gets
excessive and focus on what each is saying of some substance. And we' ve attempted to do so by laying out
things so you can do your own analysis.
But choices must be made...and lived with. So, and on balance, we' ll be supporting Barry this time around. With
all the downside risks that his naiveté in foreign policy and the pronounced weaknesses of the Dimowackic FP
bench are more than offset by the depth and breadth of his economic policies.
Normally our weightings are 50% Foreign Policy, 30% Economic Policy and 20% Domestic. In these
circumstances our weightings are 30%, 60% and 10%. First keep the economy turning over - it is after all
the sine qua non of everything else.
Page 30 of 31
Good luck to us all! We' re entering a brave new world where the Grasshopper'
s of the '
90s are now going to have
be paid for by us all turning into hard-working ants. So be it.
After the break there's a very extensive and deeply informative collection of excerpts - if you haven'
t already
decided or are prepared to weigh things in the balanced we highly recommend them. And, looking beyond
tomorrow to the real consequences, we recommend them even more. One way/weigh or another it' ll be shaping
our collective futures at the cusp point of a critical election.
Page 31 of 31

From Nomination To Election: Evolution vs. Devolution, Policy vs. Perjorative and Consequences

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From Nomination To Election: Evolution vs. Devolution, Policy vs. Perjorative and Consequences

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Re-evaluating and Re-valuing the 2008 Elections:

The Candidates, Issues, Outcomes and Implications

2. Moral Clarity? Good Intentions, Muddy Proposals, Directional Obscurities 5

3. Foreign Affairs, Security & Iraq: Poseur in Chief? 6

4. Barry Abroad, John-boy Alone: Where's the Beef 8

5. Voice, Leadership, Messages, Realities: Living in a Tough World 10

7. The Stories the Candidates Aren't Telling Us: Politics as Usual 14

8. Stories They Need to Tell: a Policy Challenge Review 16

9. Politics and Policy: Convention to Consequences 18

11. Politics and Policy II: Next Convention, Any Consequences? 21

12. Crisis, Debates and Leadership? Yeah, Right. 24

13. Populist Panderings, the Candidates and Real Solutions 26

14. Rope-a-Dope at Hofstra: Handicapping the Debate and Results 28

15. Campaigns, Candidates, Consequences: Some Assessments 31

June 15, 2008

Crossing the Cusp Points: Politics, Policy and a Proposal

The first is a shift from matters of style and

There' s some evidence the number and seriousness

At the end of the day the accompanying graphic is my

1. Economy - we're facing the most serious

July 23, 2008

Foreign Affairs, Security & Iraq: Poseur in Chief?

Which btw means Barry' s emphasis on

Which is not to say that Iraq was, by any

The Democrats fought the surge with every maneuver and

So how would you like to evaluate things ? The final excerpt on

July 26, 2008

Barry Abroad, John-boy Alone: Where's the Beef

Well "Brian", I mean Barry, has had his triumphal tour

Just to make you feel better here: http://www.cagle.com/news/ObamaMedia/main.asp

3) real substance needs to be forthcoming,

So...WHERE's THE BEEF?

July 30, 2008

Voice, Leadership, Messages, Realities:

So how' re the candidates doing against the

triangles. Which aren'

As Good As It Gets??? Where's Ronnie When You Need Him?

Voice and Leadership

August 18, 2008

Welcome to Saddleback: the Candidates, Pastor Rick and Some

e.g. George, Abe, Teddy and so forth. It'

Bottomline - well to tell the truth I'

August 21, 2008

The Stories the Candidates Aren't Telling Us: Politics as Usual

Strangely enough several of the last posts are actually

At the end of July we put up a post that walked thru this

In the readings you' ll find URL pointers to several poll

That being said Barry has proven to be one of the best

And the third thing to recall is that they don'

August 23, 2008

Stories They Need to Tell: a Policy Challenge Review

To quote from the NYT story excerpted after

"Senators Barack Obama and John

Here' s my own personal

September 01, 2008

Politics and Policy: Convention to Consequences

September 14, 2008

911 Memorial: Fix the Problem Don't Repeat the Crash

I was of several minds about whether or not to tackle

Were you ever in a small town, neighborhood, city what

That's called a "systemic risk" - that is there'

2nd Failure Source: Institutional Breakdown

Now after the break we back up that assertion with a series of