Boeing Commercial Airplanes July 2014

Boeing Commercial Airplanes
July 2014
The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and are to be used for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or
guarantee of performance.
Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
July 2014
Twenty-year traffic and

product forecast
All regions of the world
169 airlines / groups
63 traffic flows
All jets 30 seats and above

No turbo props
No business jets
Freighters
Scheduled and
nonscheduled flying
Product
strategy
Long-range
business plan
Suppliers and
airline customers
Fleet consists of all jet aircraft with at least 90 seats

10,000
Accurate
Actual
8,000
6,000
Conservative
Medium-term
2004 CMO
Forecast
4,000
2,000
Under-forecasted
single-aisles
2004-2013
20,000
Over-forecasted large
and regional jets
Long-term
16,000
12,000
8,000
Actual
1994 CMO
Forecast
4,000
0
1994-2013
SOURCES: CMO 1994, CMO 2004, ASCEND
Agenda
Whats trending in aviation?

20-year traffic and airplane forecast
Product strategy & development
Whats trending in aviation?
Strong, resilient,
growing market
expected to continue
Passengers flying
where they want
when they want
Single-aisle is fastest
growing, most
dynamic segment
4,000 new markets
Low cost carrier will

continue fast growth
Versatility drives
growth
>75% of recent deliveries

and orders in medium-size
space
Single-aisle backlog and forecast

Large S-A
Versatile and flexible for
expansion and frequency

79%
Efficient across market
76%
70-75%
Order backlog
since 2010
Future
demand
spectrum with lower risk

Market focus will remain in
this size space (737 MAX 8)
Small S-A
2010-2013
deliveries
Average number of seats last 15 years

Flexibility
More markets
More frequency
Passenger
preference
170
737 MAX 8
160
2,000-3,000 nmi
150
seats
Efficiency
Unit cost
Fuel per seat
LCC growth
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
SOURCE: Ascend, single-aisle airplanes excluding regional jets and prop aircraft, all stage lengths
2012
2014
20-year traffic and airplane forecast

reca
Market
liberalization
Airplane
capabilities
Economic
growth
Infrastructure
Current
Market
Outlook
2014-2033
Airline
strategies &
business
models
Emerging
markets
Fuel
price
High
speed
rail
Environment
Resilient, growing market expected to continue

RPKs (trillions)
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
4 recessions
2 financial crises
2 Gulf wars
1 oil shock
1 near pandemic (SARS)
9/11
2.0
1.0
RPKs = Revenue Passenger Kilometers

SOURCE: ICAO scheduled traffic
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
0.0
Macroeconomics
Trade
GDP level
GDP per capita
Labor force
Value of service
Network structure
Infrastructure
Business model
Type of service
Regulatory environment
Demand
2013 to 2033
World
economy
(GDP)
Number
of airline
passengers
Airline
traffic
(RPK)
Cargo
traffic
(RTK)
3.2%
4.2%
5.0%
4.7%
World
2.5
2.0
Air Travel
Growth
Frequency
Growth
Nonstop
Markets
1.5
1.0
0.5
SOURCE: August OAG

Index 1993=1.00
Average
Airplane
Size
787 Dreamliner opening new markets around

the world
As of June 30, 2014
Current new nonstop routes flown with the 787:

Delhi-Birmingham
Delhi-Melbourne
Delhi-Sydney
Denver-Tokyo
(AI)
(AI)
(AI)
(UA)
Houston-Lagos
Tokyo-San Diego
Tokyo-Boston
Tokyo-Helsinki
(UA)
(JL)
(JL)
(JL)
Tokyo-San Jose
Addis Ababa-Dulles
Oslo-Bangkok
Stockholm-New York
Stockholm
Oslo
(NH)
(ET)
(DY)
(DY)
Stockholm-Fort Lauderdale
Stockholm-Bangkok
Oslo-New York
Oslo-Fort Lauderdale
London-Austin
(DY)
(DY)
(DY)
(DY)
(BA)
Helsinki
Copenhagen
San Francisco
Birmingham
Denver
Boston
London
New York
San Jose
Oakland
Washington
Austin
Los Angeles
Orlando
San Diego
Houston Fort Lauderdale
Delhi
Lagos
Addis Ababa
Chengdu
Bangkok
Tokyo
Announced
In operation
787
Operators:
Sydney
Melbourne
Theyve been telling it for 15 years and still nothing
SOURCE: Airbus Annual Press Conference, 13 January 2014

Top 25 long-haul airports
2000
2014
+58%
+60%
+46%
-2%
304
Capacity
SOURCE: Industry schedules
Frequency
Cities served
299
Seats per flight
Airplane deliveries: 36,770
Market value: $5.2T
2014 - 2033
2014 - 2033
30,000
3,000
25,680
25,000
20,000
2,000
15,000
1,500
10,000
1,000
5,000
0
4,520
2,490
Regional
jets
7%
Singleaisle
70%
$2,560B
2,500
3,460
620
Small
Medium
Large
wide-body wide-body wide-body
12%
9%
2%
500
0
$1,140B $1,160B
$240B
$100B
Regional
jets
2%
Singleaisle
49%
Small
Medium
Large
wide-body wide-body wide-body
22%
22%
5%
Units
45,000
42,180
40,000
35,000
30,000
21,270
Growth
58%
25,000
36,770
20,910
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2013
15,500
Replacement
42%
5,410
Retained fleet
2033
Annual GDP growth, 2013 2033

South
Asia
6.5
China
6.2
Southeast
Asia
4.7
Africa
4.7
Asia
Pacific
4.4
Latin
America
3.9
Middle
East
3.8
CIS
3.3
World
3.2
Oceania
2.7
North
America
Europe
Northeast
Asia
2.5
1.9
1.5
SOURCE: IHS Economics

RPKs, billions
Added traffic
2014-2033
2013 traffic
Annual
growth %
6.3%
Within Asia Pacific*
6.6%
Within China
2.3%
Within North America
3.5%
Within Europe
7.4%
Middle East - Asia Pacific
5.3%
Europe - Asia Pacific

North Atlantic
3.1%
Within Latin America
6.9%
4.3%
Trans-Pacific
4.5%
Within/to CIS
4.7%
North America - Latin America
4.9%
Europe - Latin America
4.9%
Africa - Europe
0
*Does NOT include travel within China
World
Average
Growth:
5.0%
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
New airplane deliveries by region
Market value by region
20142033
20142033
Region
Airplanes
Asia Pacific
Europe
North America
Middle East
Latin America
C.I.S.
Africa
World Total
13,460
7,450
7,550
2,950
2,950
1,330
1,080
36,770
Region
3%
8% 3%
37%
8%
36,770
21%
20%
Asia Pacific
Europe
North America
Middle East
Latin America
C.I.S.
Africa
$B
2,020
1,040
870
640
340
150
140
World Total $5,200B
3%
7% 3%
12%
39%
$5.2T
17%
20%
RTKs = Revenue Tonne Kilometers

250
RTKs (billions)
200
150
100
50
0
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
100%
Delivery units
Share of fleet
80%
Large production
60%
Wide-body conversions
40%
Medium wide-body production
20%
Standard-body conversions
0%
590
>80 tonnes
40-120 tonnes
40-80 tonnes
<45 tonnes
2013
Freighters
1,690
2033
Freighters
2,730
2,170
370
250
2014 to 2033
Freighters
960
New freighter deliveries: 840
Market value: $240 billion
20142033
20142033
700
590
Market value
Airplane units
600
250
500
400
250
300
200
$190B
150
100
200
100
0
$50B
50
0
Large
>80 tonnes
70%
Medium
40-80 tonnes
30%
Standard
<45 tonnes
$0B
Large
>80 tonnes
79%
Medium
40-80 tonnes
21%
Standard
<45 tonnes
Product strategy & development

More value to our customers in all markets

Efficiency designed-in from the start
Environmental performance
Passenger experience
Long-range, fast, reliable
Low operating cost
Operational commonality
Standardization
374
350
Backlog ($B)
374
747
777
319
Large
2%
295
300
256
SingleAisle 737
46%
Model
250
TwinAisle
52%
787
200
767
150
Leasing,
Gov't &
BBJ
100
ME,
Central
&
S. Asia
Region
50
Europe
&
Russia
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
1Q14
North
America
L.
America
& Africa
Asia
Pacific
China,
East &
SE Asia
Superior value, efficient market coverage

Future Boeing
Current Boeing
500
500
747-8
747-8
450
450
777-9X
400
400
777-300ER
Seats
350
Seats
777-8X
350
787-10
777-200ER
300
787-9
250
787-8
767-300ER
300
787-9
787-8
200
200
737-900ER
737 MAX 9
737-800
737 MAX 8
150
150
737-700
100
250
737 MAX 7
100
Superior value, efficient market coverage

600
550
Future Boeing
Airbus
600
A380
550
500
500
747-8
450
777-9X
Seats
400
350
777-8X
A350-1000
400
350
787-10
300
A350-900
250
A330-300
A350-800
A330-200
300
787-9
787-8
200
150
100
250
200
A321neo
737 MAX 9
A320neo
737 MAX 8
A319neo
737 MAX 7
150
100
Seats
450
Things to remember
Strong, growing market being driven by customers flying where they want,
when they want
Single-aisle -- fastest growing and most dynamic segment -- fueling forecast
With the most comprehensive widebody lineup in the industry, Boeing will be
able to meet customers needs now and in the future
For more information, please visit our CMO website:

http://www.boeing.com/cmo
You can also visit my blog, Randys Journal:

http://boeingblogs.com/randy/

Boeing Commercial Airplanes July 2014

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Boeing Commercial Airplanes July 2014

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Boeing Commercial Airplanes

Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Twenty-year traffic and

All jets 30 seats and above

Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Fleet consists of all jet aircraft with at least 90 seats

Whats trending in aviation?

Whats trending in aviation?

Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.

4,000 new markets

Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Low cost carrier will

>75% of recent deliveries

Single-aisle backlog and forecast

Versatile and flexible for

expansion and frequency

Efficient across market

spectrum with lower risk

Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Average number of seats last 15 years

20-year traffic and airplane forecast

Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Resilient, growing market expected to continue

RPKs = Revenue Passenger Kilometers

Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.

SOURCE: August OAG

787 Dreamliner opening new markets around

Current new nonstop routes flown with the 787:

Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Theyve been telling it for 15 years and still nothing

SOURCE: Airbus Annual Press Conference, 13 January 2014

Top 25 long-haul airports

Seats per flight

Airplane deliveries: 36,770

Market value: $5.2T

Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Annual GDP growth, 2013 2033

SOURCE: IHS Economics

Within Asia Pacific*

Within North America

Middle East - Asia Pacific

Europe - Asia Pacific

Within Latin America

North America - Latin America

Europe - Latin America

New airplane deliveries by region

Market value by region

Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.

World Total $5,200B

RTKs = Revenue Tonne Kilometers

Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Medium wide-body production

Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.

New freighter deliveries: 840

Market value: $240 billion

Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Product strategy & development

More value to our customers in all markets

Long-range, fast, reliable

Low operating cost