Infill/Residential Development

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• Market trends and vital signs
• Fourth annual Tour de Fort Worth
• Profile in Success 2009
• 2009 predictions scorecard
• Conclusions and predictions for 2010 2
 2009
National Home prices in decline, but not as fast…

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S&P/ Case Shiller Home Price Index
Rank City 2009 Change (%)
1. Denver -0.1%
2. Dallas -0.6%
3. San Diego -2.4%
4. San Francisco -2.6%
5. Boston, Washington -2.8%
6. Cleveland -3.5%
7. Los Angeles -6.3%
8. Charlotte -7.0%
9. New York -7.7%
10. Atlanta -8.1%
11. Minneapolis -8.4%
12. Portland -9.9%
13. Chicago -10.1%
14. Seattle -12.4%
15. Miami -14.0%
16. Detroit -15.1%
17. Tampa -15.2%
18. Phoenix -18.1%
19. Las Vegas -26.6% 4
 National Home Sales
Existing Home Sales New Home Sales
1,500
6,500
After bottoming in Jan ‘09 at 329K,
1,400
new home sales recover; slight
1,300 moderation in Sept. as tax credit
6,000 Existing home
stimulus wanes
sales climb to 1,200
4.890 million 1,100
5,500 annual rate in Sep

Annual Units in 000's

Annual Units in 000's

1,000

900
5,000
800

700 402,000
4,500 600

500
4,000 400

300

3,500 200

100

3,000 0

APR
OCT

OCT

OCT

OCT
JAN 06
JAN 05

JAN 07

JAN 08

JAN 09
APR

APR

APR

APR
JUL

JUL

JUL

JUL

JUL
OCT

OCT

OCT

OCT

APR
JUL
JAN 05
APR

JAN 06
APR

JAN 07
APR

JAN 08
APR

JAN 09
JUL

JUL

JUL

JUL

Sources: US Census Bureau, NAR, NAHB

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 National New Housing Starts

Seasonally Adjusted U.S. Annual Start Rates

2000
1900 Peak:1.823mm
% Decline (peak to trough)
1800
National -81%
1700
1600
DFW - 74%
1500
1400
1300
Starts in (000's)

1200
1100
1000
900
800
700 501K units
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
J
J

J
J

J
J

J
J

J
J
F
F

A
S

A
S

A
S

A
S

A
S
N

M
M

D
O

D
O

D
O

M
Jan '05

Jan '06

Jan '07

Jan '08

Jan '09
Single-Family Detached Only
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census (in ‘000s) Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
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 Foreclosures
• Tarrant foreclosure rate
rises to .44%

• Texas ranks 28th in

nation at .32%

• U.S. rate is .73% (from

.13% in 2005)

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 DFW Unemployment Trend
Market Drivers
DFW Unemployment Rate
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Unemployment Rates – Sep ‘09

8 DFW: 8.3% Texas: 8.3%
US: 9.5%
7

2
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 09

Not Seasonally Adjusted

Source: TWC - LAUS 8
 Job Growth / Unemployment
Fort Worth / Arlington MSA
(Metropolitan Statistical Area)

Nov. ’08 Nov. ‘09

• Total Civilian Workforce: 1,045,100 1,081,500

• Total Employed: 988,800 995,400

• Unemployment rate: 5.4% 8%

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 Interest Rates

Source: Freddie Mac October 29, 2009

30YR : 5.03%
15YR : 4.46%
1YR ARM : 4.57%

Mortgage Rates
30-Yr Fixed Rate Outlook, Mortgage Bankers Association
Conforming Rates: 10/13/09 Forecast 10
 Rate

Dow
Jones
Savings
Household
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0

-3.0
-2.0
-1.0

-4.0
Jan-00
Mar-00
May-00
Jul-00
Sep-00
Nov-00
Jan-01
Mar-01
May-01
Jul-01
Sep-01
Nov-01
Jan-02
Mar-02
May-02
Jul-02
Sep-02
Nov-02
Jan-03
Mar-03
May-03
Jul-03
Sep-03
Nov-03
Jan-04
Mar-04
May-04
Jul-04
Sep-04
Nov-04
Jan-05
Mar-05
May-05
• Consumer is saving again

Jul-05
Sep-05
Nov-05
• Equity market has rebounded

Jan-06
Mar-06
May-06
Jul-06
Sep-06
Positive Economic Trends

Nov-06
Jan-07
Mar-07
May-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
11
Sources: NAHB, Conference Board, Dow Jones
 Consumer Confidence
The Sindlinger Survey of Household Money Supply

1. How is your household income today vs. 6 months

ago?
2. Do you expect your household income to be the
same or greater in six months?
3. In your place of employment, do you expect there to
be the same number or more jobs in six months?
4. Do you expect your local business conditions in the
next six months to be the same or better?

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 Consumer Confidence
80

DFW Texas U.S.

75

Texas: 49.2
70 DFW: 53.3
9/11/01
US : 48.3
65

60

55

50

DFW, U.S. and Texas show

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improvement in 3Q09

40
Jan-00

Jan-02

Jan-04

Jan-06

Jan-08
May-01

May-03

May-05

May-07

May-09
Sep-04

Sep-06

Sep-08
Sep-00

Sep-02

Source: Sindlinger 1985=100

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 FW New Home Vital Signs
FW ’06 FW ’07 FW ’08 FW ’09

$ Vol. Starts (Billions) $2.93 $1.96 $1.40 $0.93

Median Home Price $172K $179K $187K $185K

Annual Starts 17,007 10,952 7,502 5,062

FV Home Inventory 4,648 3,194 2,422 1,637

Months Supply (1) 3.4 2.7 3.1 2.9

Vacant Lots 34,053 35,745 33,837 31,081
Months Supply (2) 24 39.2 54.1 73.7

Lots Under Development 13,212 6,728 2,952 2,612

(1) 2.5 mos. is considered equilibrium

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(2) 24 mos. is considered equilibrium
 MLS Average Days on Market
(Fort Worth)
Price Range 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

$0 - $250,000 68 74 73 81 78 75

$250,000 - $500,000 85 94 78 80 95 102

$500,000 - $750,000 117 112 144 99 122 116

$750,000 - $1 million 110 179 146 110 133 118

Over $1 million 168 127 179 152 197 199

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Source: NTREIS
 MLS Sales Price % of List Price
(Fort Worth)
Price Range 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

$0 - $250,000 98% 98% 97% 97% 97% 91%

$250,000 - $500,000 95% 96% 96% 96% 96% 91%

$500,000 - $750,000 96% 95% 97% 96% 96% 97%

$750,000 - $1 million 92% 94% 94% 95% 95% 97%

Over $1 million 90% 91% 94% 90% 95% 88%

Source: 16
NTREIS
 FW Resale Market in 2009

• Median home price of $113,200 drops 3.2%

• MLS home sales drop 12.9%

Source: Texas A&M Real Estate

Center 17
FW MLS Home Sales Over $1 Million

2003 6 Sales
2004 13 Sales
2005 12 Sales
2006 16 Sales
2007 26 Sales
2008 18 Sales
2009 17 Sales

Source: MLS
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 Signs of life…

• Interest rates at historic lows but inching upward

• Equity market rebound restores confidence
• Consumer confidence trending upward– DFW well ahead of
national trend
• Affordability is way up
• Natural gas rebounds

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 Challenges to Recovery
• Foreclosures add low priced inventory to the market,
particularly outside the loop

• Tightened lending parameters and regulation will

continue to restrain demand, particularly in the condo
market

• Job losses as unemployment escalates

• Frugality is now fashionable

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Downtown Projects

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 Villa De Leon
Tom Struhs

• 23 luxury condos

• 5 units sold

• $412/sf avg.

• $630’s to $1.5 million

• Construction completed
October ’09 22
 Pecan Place
Tom Struhs

• 28 townhomes

• 15 sold

• $185 to $210/sf

• $320’s to $500’s

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 Palisades
InCap

• 40 townhomes

• 31 sold

• $140’s per SF

• $290’s to $500’s

• 4 sales in December’09

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 Le Bijou
OmniAmerican Bank

• 14 townhomes

• 6 sold

• $1.825 million

• $615k to $825k

• $197 to 205/SF
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1301 Throckmorton
Omni Corporation
• 84 units
• $500/sf avg.
• $399K to $2.6 million
• 15 sold, 5 reservations

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Wood Partners

• 228 condos

• 227 sold

• $244 to $285/sf

• $150’s to $400’s

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 The Neil P

M C Smith Investments

• 57 condos

• 32 sold (+9)

• $170-$250/sf

• $210’s to $400,000

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 Westview

Centex Homes

• 50 condos finished

• 41 sold

• 820 sf to 1400 sf

• $190’s to $230’s

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The Westside

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 Townhouses at So7

Hughes Development, L.P.

• 43 townhouses
completed in the mid
$400’s
• 34 sold, 9 available
• $165 - $225/sf
• $410’s to $660’s

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 ArtHouse at So7
Hughes Development, L.P.
• 54 condominiums complete: 28 up from 13 sold
• 11 Gallery Homes complete: 9 up from 8 sold
• $190 - $250/sf
• $200’s to $420’s

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 The Stayton
Hughes Development, L.P.

• Continuous care retirement community

(Go go, slow go, no go…)
• 200 units, 150 units presold
• completion in mid 2011

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 Parkside
Hughes Development, L.P.
• 71 luxury apartments for lease
• $1.60 per foot rents
• Originally intended condos– developer calls audible as market
conditions change

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Montgomery Plaza
Marquis Group

• 240 luxury residences

• 178 contracts

• $250-$300+/sf

• $210’s to $1.45
million

• Construction
completed May ‘09 35
JaGee Holdings
• 34 condominiums
• No sales
• $350’s/sf
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Corner Store Lofts • 5 loft units over corner market
7-eleven
JaGee Holdings • $230/sf
• No sales, One leased
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 HILLTOP
Village Homes, L.P.
• 10 townhouses
• 8 sold
• $175 to $190/sf
• $450’s - $500’s

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 Lower Monticello
Village Homes, L.P.

• 7 homes in the $380’s to $420’s

• $160 to $180/sf

• 2 sold

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 Chamberlain Heights
HGC
Development

• 23 townhouses
• 16 sold
• 6 units leased
• Approx. $185/sf

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 Idlewild
Village Homes, L.P.

• 18 home sites from

$270’s to $450’s

• 9 home sites remaining

• $900’s to $1.75 million

• 7 homes sold and

completed or underway

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 Luxury Apartment Surge

• West 7th 350 units 65% leased

• So 7 Parkside 71 units now leasing
• Lincoln @ Trinity Bluff 70 units 30% leased
• Lincoln Park @Trinity Bluff 299 units 50% leased
• Colonial Park
and Gallery 1701 425 units 88% leased

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Southwest Fort Worth

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 Park Hill Place
Village Homes, L.P.
• 4 homes sold; 1 spec available
• 11 home sites available
• 18 homes from $550’s to $1.5 million

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 Riverhills
Edwards Ranch

Trinity Works
• Phase 1
• 64 large lots (avg. ½
acre)
• 29 lots sold
• $250,000 to
$1.75 million
• 9 completed houses
• 6 under construction

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 Montserrat
• 2009 Lot Sales: 4 from $200k to $500k
• 2009 Home Sales: 9 homes from $499k to $3.1 million

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 Profile in Success: 2 0 0 9
Antares Homes
Ron Formby, President

• Closed 193 houses in 2009–

best year ever!

• First time buyer market in

North FW, Crowley, Burleson
• Value and flexibility

• Advancing where Big Nat’l

builders have retreated
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 ’09 Predictions Report Card
1. A great year for buyers – eager sellers and low interest rates.
A strong buyers’ market will remain through the end of 2009.
Yes
2. Weakening job market and foreclosures will put increased
downward pressure on prices. Suburban markets are most
vulnerable.
Yes
3. Inner-city neighborhoods will hold their own.
Yes
4. Urban projects downtown and near westside will outperform
2008.
No
5. Low gas prices will dampen the high-end ($1 million plus)
market, but it will remain stable.
Yes
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 2010 Predictions
• Fort Worth home sales will increase moderately, exceeding
2009 by 15%

• We will continue to see a strong buyers’ market through the

end of 2010 as excess urban inventory and tighter lending
restrictions absorb / curb demand

• FW home prices will see moderate decline (less than 5%

aggregate)

• Conforming mortgage rates will rise 2% by October 1, bringing

much needed urgency to the market

• Buoyed by improved natural gas prices, $1million+ home sales

will increase by 25% over 2009 49
 Special thanks to:
• Martha Williams Williams Trew
• Marshall Boyd Williams Trew
• Warren Beam Balanced Systems
• Tom Struhs Struhs Development
• Ted Wilson Residential Strategies
• Cassie Gibson Residential Strategies
• Cue Lipscomb BMC Mortgage
• Phillip Poole Townsite Development
• Ken Schaumburg Schaumburg Architects
• Richard Garvey JaGee Holdings, LLP
• Jim Harris James R Harris Company
• Justin Welborn James R. Harris Company
• John Giordano HGC Development
• Paul Paine Fort Worth South
• Isaac Manning Trinity Works
• Tyler Arbogast Trinity Works
• Mary Margaret Davis Texas and Pacific Lofts
• Vicki Schoch Williams Trew
• Jason Centex Homes
• Mike Reilly Reilly Brothers Property Company
• Michael Dike Village Homes
• Sydney Eckersley Village Homes
• Seth Fowler Village Homes
• Janet Bishop Village Homes
• Jorg Mast Hughes Development
• Reece Pettigrew JaGee Holdings, LLP
• Ron Formby Antares Homes

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