TMN150213

THAILANDs TOP LOCAL KNOWLEDGE
Current Market
Thanacharts Morning Note
Market data
Friday, February 13, 2015
Net trade
Close
Net trade (Bt bn)
SET Index
1,613.4
0.5%
Turnover (Bt m)
54,414
-6.8%
Mkt Cap (Bt bn)
15,015
0.5%
Stock Gainers
493
stocks
Stock Losers
387
stocks
SET Index vs MSCI Asia x JP

Prev.
-1M
YTD
Foreign
+1.8
+13.9
+3.5
Retail
-2.1
-22.0
-21.1
Institutes
-0.9
+3.6
+8.9
Proprietary
+1.2
+4.4
+8.6
(index)
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
Jan-14
SET index (LHS)
600
550
500
450
May-14
Market data
BTSs analyst meeting
P.2
More O&M contracts are expected to be awarded in 3Q & early 2016

A joint venture with Sansiri will launch the condo project in May.
SPV with AEON is expected to provide a yield of 8% per year.
Yield play with expected growth cycle from FY18 onward. BUY
Results Comment
BIGC (SELL)
Weak 4Q14 results, in line
LPN (BUY)
Strong 4Q14 results beat us marginally
Sep-14
Jan-15
Market Valuation
COMPANY UPDATE
BTS (BUY)
(index)
650
MSCI Asia x JP ( RHS)
2014F 2015F 2016F
PE (x)
19.0
15.7
13.8
13.9
Norm EPS growth (%)
(6.5)
20.4
EV/EBITDA (x)
11.3
10.0
9.1
2.4
2.2
2.0
P/BV (x)
Yield (%)
2.7
3.1
3.6
ROE (%)
13.5
15.1
15.9
0.7
0.7
0.6
Net D/E (x)
Major Indices
P.3-4
Close
17,972
110.2
0.6%
NASDAQ
4,858
56.4
1.2%
FTSE
6,828
9.9
0.1%
0.5%
Dow Jones
SHCOMP (China)
3,173
15.7
24,422
107.1
0.4%
3,419
-25.4
-0.7%
KOSPI
1,942
-4.1
-0.2%
JCI (Indonesia)
5,343
6.9
0.1%
MSCI Asia
127
1.6
1.3%
MSCI Asia x JP
577
-0.2
0.0%
Hang Seng
FTSSI (Singapore)
Currency /Bond data

Close
Dollar index
94.1
-0.9
-0.9%
Bt/US$
32.6
0.0
-0.1%
-1.1%
100JPY/US$
119.1
-1.3
10Y bond yield (TH)
2.7
0.0
1.5%
10Y treasury yield (US)
2.0
0.0
-1.6%
Commodities
Close
NYMEX (US$/bbl)
51.2
2.4
4.9%
BRENT (ICE) (US$/bbl)
57.1
2.4
4.4%
DUBAI (US$/bbl)
54.8
0.3
0.6%
Baltic Dry Index
540.0
-13.0
-2.4%
GRM (US$/bbl)
Gold (US$/oz)
Coal (BJI)*
10.3
0.3
3%
1,220.7
1.1
0.1%
70.0
2.5
3.7%
(US$/tonne)* (US$ cent/lb)**
HDPE-Naphtha
606.0
-39.0
-6.0%
Ethylene-Naphtha
396.0
-26.5
-6.3%
PX-Naphtha
328.0
23.0
7.5%
BZ-Naphtha
161.0
-21.5
-12%
Steel-HRC
405.0
-17.5
-4.1%
Rubber SICOM TSR20
1,410
8.0
0.6%
Rubber TOCOM
1,830
50.4
2.8%
Raw Sugar**
14.9
0.3
2.0%
White Sugar**
17.7
0.3
1.6%
Source: Thanachart , Bloomberg, Datastream, Banpu

Note: * Weekly data
Please note that due to the interest of timeliness, this product was not edited.
BTS Group Holdings Pcl
(BTS TB)
- BUY
Analyst Meeting
Saksid Phadthananarak | Email: saksid.pha@thanachartsec.co.th
BTSs analyst meeting
Key valuation
Y/E Mar (Bt m)
2014
2015F
2016F
2017F
More O&M contracts are expected to be awarded in 3Q & early 2016
Revenue
8,115
6,389
6,298
6,747
A joint venture with Sansiri will launch the condo project in May.
Net profit
12,645
2,282
2,320
2,163
SPV with AEON is expected to provide a yield of 8% per year.
2,013
2,282
2,320
2,163
Yield play with expected growth cycle from FY18 onward. BUY
Norm net profit

Norm EPS (Bt)
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Norm EPS gr (%)
18.5
13.4
1.7
(6.7)
Norm PE (x)
58.9
52.0
51.1
54.8
We joined BTSs analyst meeting yesterday with the following key takeaways.
EV/EBITDA (x)
34.8
41.8
42.1
38.8
P/BV (x)
2.0
2.2
2.5
2.9
Div. yield (%)
6.0
6.1
6.9
7.3
ROE (%)
3.8
4.1
4.6
4.9
(41.4)
(39.3)
(24.0)
(3.5)
Given the governments policy to consider direct negotiation with existing

operators, the management expects the O&M contract for the South Green
Line extension to be awarded to BTS in 4Q15 and the North Green Line
extension in early 2016. The management also expects BTSs targeted lines
Net D/E (%)
Source: Thanachart estimates
to open for bidding this year for LRT, in 3Q15 for Pink Line and in early 2016
for Grey Line.
A joint venture with Sansiri will start to pre-sell its high-rise condominium
project near BTS Mo Chit Station in May 2015 with expected sales value of
Bt5.8bn and equity IRR of 17%. The construction will start in March 2015 and
is expected to be completed in January 2018.
Stock Data
Closing price (Bt)
9.95
Target price (Bt)
11.50
Market Cap (US$ m)
3,627
Avg daily turnover (US$ m)
15.0
12M H/L price (Bt)
10.50/8.05
The management also clarifies more details about its special purpose vehicle
(SPV) with AEON. BTS will hold 51% in the SPV while AEON will hold 49%.
Price Performance
The purpose is to issue AEON Rabbit member cards which includes
(Bt)
BTS Group Holdings
(%)
functions of AEONs personnel loan service and BTSs Rabbit card (an e-
11
Rel to SET Index
10
money system that can be used on the BTS mass transit networks and other
10
retail partners).
1) SPV will get a Bt500m subordinated loan from BTS and AEON while it
will issue Bt4.5bn debentures to have the total funding size of Bt5bn.
BTS will also be a buyer for the debentures.
7
Feb-14
0
(10)
Jun-14
Oct-14
(20)
Feb-15
Sources: Thanachart estimate, Bloomberg
2) Then, SPV will use this money to buy the consumer loan receivables
under co-branded AEON Rabbit member cards from AEON.
3) Then, BTS expects to get a blended yield of 8% a year from the
debentures and its subordinated loan with an increase of rabbit card
users (from 3.5m users at present).
The exchange between BTSs hotel and raw land plots and 35% stake in
NPARK is still under the processes. The purpose of this exchange is to use
NPARK for expanding commercial property business. NPARK will develop
land at Mo Chit and Phayathai for mixed use and manage recurring income
real estate.
Even though we forecast BTSs earnings to be quite flat in FY16-17 due to a

slowdown in property business and lower interest income after high dividend
payment, we still like BTS due to two major reasons. First, it is considered as
a yield play with secured dividend payment of at least Bt7bn in FY15 and
Bt8bn in FY16. Second, it has a strong chance of winning new mass transit
projects in the future given less number of mass transit operators in Thailand,
its cost competitiveness and strong financial status. We then maintain our
BUY recommendation on BTS.
THANACHART SECURITIES
Big C Supercenter Pcl (BIGC TB) - SELL, Price Bt229, TP Bt177
Results Comment
Phannarai Tiyapittayarut | Email: phannarai.von@thanachartsec.co.th
Weak 4Q14 results, in line
BIGC reported weak 4Q14 profit as expected of Bt2.5bn, down

4% y-y but up 60% q-q on seasonality impact. 2014 profit
came in line with our estimates at Bt7.2bn, up a slight by 4% yy.
4Q14 results turned to a negative growth y-y due mainly to

falling gross margin by 144bp y-y to 16.9% due to
extraordinary high margin in 4Q13. Besides this, SSS growth
in 4Q14 recovered slower than expected at 0.5% despite low
base effect given -4.7% SSS in 4Q13.
Yr-end Dec (Bt m )

Revenue
Gross profit
SG&A
Operating profit
EBITDA
Other income
Interest expense
Profit before tax
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
30,851
29,204
31,141
29,692
31,807
5,651
3,888
4,737
4,230
5,369
5,326
5,352
5,556
5,519
5,366
3,587
1,841
2,586
2,228
3,327
4,547
2,800
3,576
3,251
4,232
3,262
3,305
3,405
3,516
3,324
280
224
220
211
210
3,307
1,617
2,366
2,016
3,117
669
331
448
402
(27)
(25)
(3)
(3)
Net profit
0
2,635
Norm alized profit
2,635
Income tax
Equity & invest. income
Minority interests
Extraordinary items
EPS (Bt)
Normalized EPS (Bt)
3.19
24,796
49
(7)
100
9,982
11,005
30
(7)
99
13,860
15,451
(5)
100
13,550
14,736
na
(1)
(25)
93
866
821
Other expense
2,037
(41)
(17)
na
na
(111)
(4)
(3)
(5)
Minority interests
na
na
71
(15)
(23)
0
1,256
0
1,889
0
1,570
0
2,519
na
Net profit
60
(4)
100
7,235
8,124
1,256
1,889
1,570
2,519
Norm alized profit
60
(4)
100
7,235
8,124
60
(4)
100
8.77
9.85
60
(4)
100
8.77
9.85
4Q14
1.52
2.29
1.90
3.05
3.05
7,175
2,351
5,034
2,117
11,414
323
206
196
225
228
Inventory
9,535
11,600
10,226
11,691
11,552
Other current assets
4,749
5,960
4,385
5,562
4,536
Investment
16,285
16,540
16,592
16,333
16,188
Fixed assets
26,195
26,115
25,928
26,695
26,043
Other assets
32,903
33,003
32,841
31,914
32,819
97,164
95,776
95,203
94,537
102,778
7,675
8,445
7,675
7,675
26,998
24,043
24,588
2,483
2,516
2,380
18,650
17,975
4,320
4,499
19
22
(consolidated)
EPS (Bt)
Normalized EPS (Bt)
Financial Ratios
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
1.6
2.7
3.8
2.7
3.1
Operating profit grow th
29.3
(8.9)
15.3
31.4
(7.2)
EBITDA grow th
23.7
(3.2)
14.4
25.2
(6.9)
Norm profit grow th
40.5
(10.1)
20.4
14.3
(4.4)
Norm EPS grow th
40.5
(10.1)
20.4
14.3
(4.4)
Gross margin
18.3
13.3
15.2
14.2
16.9
Operating margin
11.6
6.3
8.3
7.5
10.5
10,675
EBITDA margin
14.7
9.6
11.5
10.9
13.3
22,571
28,864
Norm net margin
8.5
4.3
6.1
5.3
7.9
2,160
2,563
17,975
17,975
13,975
D/E (x)
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
4,512
4,510
4,555
Net D/E (x)
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.3
13
16
21
16.2
12.5
16.3
15.4
20.1
37,019
38,275
38,060
39,630
42,126
(12,237)
(14,166)
(10,655)
(17,083)
26,325
26,420
25,650
25,650
24,650
24,069
Extraordinary items
4Q13
(17,139)
19,150
21,793
10,184
Cash & equivalent
Net debt
18,225
96
1,756
4Q14
Total debt
95
9,116
3Q14
Shareholders' equity
(5)
(3)
97
2Q14
Working capital
21,065
27
100
1Q14
Minority interest
2015F
140,533
(6)
4Q13
Other liabilities
2014
121,845
(14)
Yr-end Dec (Bt m )
L-T debt
Other income
% 2014F
95
55
Balance Sheet
Other current liabilities
Operating profit
EBITDA
y-y%
3
43
1.90
A/C payable
Gross profit
SG&A
12M as
q-q%
7
Income tax
2.29
S-T debt
Incom e Statem ent

(Bt m )
Revenue
575
1.52
Total assets
It announced dividend payment of Bt2.62/share (1.1% yield),

paying at 30% minimum payout, XD on 17 April and payment
date is 7 May 2015.
Interest expense
Profit before tax
3.19
A/C receivable
Reiterate SELL to Bt177 TP as its high 2015F PE of 23x

doesnt justify 12% EPS growth in 2015-16F each.
4Q13
Other expense
Due to weak economy last year, it slowed down new launches

in 2014 to four hypermarkets, seven Big C Markets, 51 Mini Big
Cs and 20 Pure drugstores.
(consolidated)
Incom e Statem ent
2014 profit grew by 4% y-y, in line with sales growth which was
driven by new expansion rather than SSS growth. In 2014, SSS
dropped by 1% (-1.5% including calendar effect).
20,616
23,533
13,236
(%)
Sales grow th
Interest coverage (x)
4.1
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
Effective tax rate
20.2
20.5
18.9
19.9
18.5
ROA
ROE
12.3
6.1
8.9
7.5
11.1
29.5
13.3
19.8
16.2
24.7
Interest rate
So urces: Co mpany data, Thanachart estimates
L.P.N. Development Pcl (LPN TB) - BUY, Price Bt20.9, TP Bt25.0
Results Comment
Phannarai Tiyapittayarut | Email: phannarai.von@thanachartsec.co.th
Strong 4Q14 results beat us marginally
LPN announced strong 4Q14 profit of Bt743m, up 34% y-y and

32% q-q, the best quarterly results of last year, as wed
expected.
2014 profit beat our estimate by 4% on stronger-than-expected
gross margin and other income in 4Q14.
4Q14 real estate sales were in line at Bt4.2bn, mainly from

three new projects that were completed and started
transferring in the quarter Lumpini SeaView Jomtien (Bt1.3bn
project value, 37% sold, 29% transferred), Lumpini Ville OnnutPattanakarn (Bt1.9bn, 51% sold, 44% transferred) and Lumpini
Place Udon-Posri (Bt2.1bn, 72% sold, 53% transferred).
Yr-end Dec (Bt m )

Revenue
Gross profit
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
4,110
2,502
2,502
3,539
4,323
1,198
811
808
1,119
1,425
509
365
367
423
524
SG&A
Operating profit
EBITDA
689
446
441
696
Other income rose to Bt52m. We suspect there were revenues

from shop sales to some shop tenants.
(consolidated)
Incom e Statem ent
Gross margin on real estate sales improved both y-y and q-q to
33.3% in 4Q14 (versus 29.5% in 4Q13 and 31.7% in 3Q14),
driven by the high margin from the project in Udon Thani,
Lumpini Place Udon-Posri.
900
Maintain BUY with a Bt25.0 TP. LPN announced higher-thanexpected 2014 DPS of Bt0.8/share, with a 58% payout ratio.
The interim dividend of Bt0.54/share from the 2H14
performance is scheduled to be paid on 10 April with the XD
date on 24 Feb 2015.
Incom e Statem ent

(Bt m )
Revenue
Gross profit
SG&A
Operating profit
EBITDA
12M as
q-q%
22
y-y%
5
% 2014F
101
2014
12,867
2015F
17,024
27
19
102
4,163
5,682
24
103
1,679
2,094
29
31
101
2,483
3,588
29
30
101
2,522
3,628
444
192
217
93
55
na
698
455
451
706
910
18
22
10
52
Other expense
Other expense
Interest expense
Profit before tax
55
101
91
21
35
704
445
462
702
946
Interest expense
Profit before tax
35
35
103
2,555
3,607
Income tax
150
94
95
141
204
Income tax
45
36
103
534
758
na
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)
0
554
0
351
0
367
0
561
0
743
Other income

Minority interests
Extraordinary items
Net profit
Norm alized profit
Other income

Minority interests
na
na
185
na
Net profit
32
34
104
2,021
2,850
Norm alized profit
32
34
104
2,021
2,850
32
34
104
1.37
1.93
32
34
104
1.37
1.93
4Q14
Extraordinary items
554
351
367
561
743
0.38
0.24
0.25
0.38
0.50
0.38
0.24
0.25
0.38
0.50
Yr-end Dec (Bt m )
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
(%)
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
Cash & equivalent
1,192
1,849
916
796
1,047
Sales grow th
(40.9)
1.2
(41.8)
2.2
5.2
130
123
142
100
232
Operating profit grow th
(56.5)
2.3
(56.5)
(9.8)
30.7
11,203
10,606
12,491
16,727
11,522
EBITDA grow th
(56.1)
2.4
(56.0)
(9.7)
30.4
3,500
4,729
3,237
5,023
Norm profit grow th
(53.7)
(2.6)
(54.2)
(8.7)
34.1
Norm EPS grow th
(53.7)
(2.6)
(54.2)
(8.7)
34.1
Fixed assets
238
236
234
232
208
Other assets
1,158
1,276
1,329
1,356
1,752
Gross margin
29.2
32.4
32.3
31.6
33.0
17.8
17.6
19.7
20.8
EPS (Bt)
Normalized EPS (Bt)
(consolidated)
Balance Sheet
A/C receivable
Inventory
Other current assets
Investment
EPS (Bt)
Normalized EPS (Bt)
Financial Ratios
17,420
18,818
18,349
19,211
19,784
Operating margin
16.8
S-T debt
5,148
6,011
5,757
5,488
4,986
EBITDA margin
17.0
18.2
18.0
19.9
21.1
A/C payable
2,101
3,115
2,176
2,430
2,359
Norm net margin
13.5
14.0
14.7
15.9
17.2
231
293
128
104
253
D/E (x)
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
Net D/E (x)
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.5
228.4
49.6
313.9
178.1
148.0
Total assets
Other current liabilities

L-T debt
140
95
613
1,328
1,583
Other liabilities
174
182
187
195
194
9,626
9,121
9,488
9,665
10,408
Minority interest
Shareholders' equity
Interest coverage (x)

Interest rate
0.2
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.4
21.2
20.6
20.1
21.5
Working capital
9,232
7,614
10,458
14,397
9,394
Effective tax rate
21.3
Total debt
5,289
6,106
6,370
6,816
6,569
7.7
7.9
11.9
15.2
4,097
4,258
5,454
6,020
5,522
ROA
ROE
13.0
Net debt
23.7
15.0
15.8
23.4
29.6
So urces: Co mpany data, Thanachart estimates
NEWS CLIPPING
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insufficient evidence as the investigation is still incomplete.
PM urges rail links to resorts : Private sector invited to joint investment. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-
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cha has tasked agencies to do a feasibility study on building a high-speed rail network linking Bangkok
and popular tourism destinations with joint investment from the private sector.
Thai firms encouraged to step up Japan investment : Japan is seeking to attract more Thai
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investment through the recent accord signed during the visit of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha.
Chamber: Decide on policy now : Businesses have urged the government to make up its mind quickly
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on an energy policy, saying a delayed decision will affect their cost management, production efficiency
and competitiveness.
CDC backs reform safeguards : Constitution drafters have put forward a proposal that a national
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committee be set up to oversee implementation of national reforms after the new constitution is
promulgated.
Work on BoI-approved SME projects expected to start in second half of 2015 : The board of
The Nation
Investment said that most small and medium-sized projects approved by the BoI last year were expected
to start their construction process in the second half of this year and the BoI was maintaining its target of
approving projects valued at Bt350 billion this year.
TCC urges quick resolution of 21st petroleum concession round : A seminar hosted by the Thai
The Nation
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bidding for gas and oil exploration quickly, otherwise the delay in locking in energy sources would lead to
higher fuel prices as well as risk energy security.
CIMB Thai stuck with high cost-to-income ratio for now, CEO says : CIMB THAI Bank has
The Nation
acknowledged that it might not be able to improve its cost-to-income ratio in the near future as it has put
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Norling named new DTAC CEO : Total Access Communication (DTAC) yesterday named Lars-Ake
The Nation
Norling as its new chief executive officer, effective April 1, 2015.
Up to 60% of Modernine TV shows to be produced in-house : After the departure of two long-time
The Nation
strategic content providers, MCOT is revamping its strategy to produce in-house up to 60 per cent of all
programming to retain its market share and advertising revenue.
Group Lease looks to high margins in CLMV after sales rebound in Q4 : After posting an impressive
The Nation
turnaround in the last quarter of 2014, Group Lease is pushing ahead with an aggressive expansion plan
to capture the fast-growing and high-margin motorcycle-leasing markets in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar
and Vietnam (CLMV).
Market data
Close
SET Index
1,613.4
8.3
0.5%
SET50 Index
1,070.5
5.9
0.6%
SET100 Index
2,378.6
13.8
0.6%
779.3
8.0
1.0%
MAI Index
PRICE CHANGE - MOST ACTIVE

Change 1 Day (%)
Change 1 Week (%)
IRPC
TPIPL
BANPU
IRPC
TPIPL
CSS
BGH
Economic data
Current
-1M
-3M
JAS
Saving Rate (%)
0.50
0.50
0.50
INTUCH
ADVANC
KBANK
Fixed Deposit - 3M (%)
1.13
1.13
1.13
TUF
Fixed Deposit - 1Y (%)
1.75
1.75
1.75
KT B
TRUE
Govt Bond Yield 1Y (%)
2.00
1.97
2.06
PTT
PT TEP
Govt Bond Yield 10Y (%)
2.70
2.57
3.00
KBANK
PT T
Treasury Yield 10Y (%)
1.98
1.80
2.31
CSS
IFEC
Policy Rate (%)

VIX Index
2.00
2.00
2.00
15.34
16.66
12.62
0.25
0.24
0.23
TED Spread (%)
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Thai BMA
SET Forward PE Band
(index)
25x
2,500
10
Change 1Month (%)
(10)
IFEC
IFEC
JAS
ITD
TRUE
TRUE
PTT
PTT
ITD
PTTEP
PTTEP
KT B
18x
KT B
BBL
ADVANC
ADVANC
KBANK
SCB
14x
10x
1,000
SCB
500
10
15
20
KBANK
(10)
7x
(5)
Change Year-To-Date (%)
22x
2,000
1,500
(5)
10
20
30
(20)
20
40
60
SECTOR CHANGE
2016F
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
2014F
Change 1 Day (%)
SET PE Discount to MSCI Asia x JP
(x)
10
8
6
4
2
0
(2)
(4)
(6)
(8)
Jan-03
+2 STD = 6.3x
+1 STD = 3.3x
ETRON
PET RO
HELTH
HELTH
AUTO
PROP
ICT
CONMAT
ENERG
ETRON
PROP
AUTO
SET
TRANS
COMM
FOOD
PET RO
SET
BANK
ICT
FOOD
COMM
CONMAT
MEDIA
MEDIA
BANK
TRANS
ENERG
Average = 0.3x
(1)
-1 STD = -2.8x
-2 STD = -5.8x
Change 1 Week (%)
Change 1 Month (%)
Jan-09
Jan-12
Jan-15
PETRO
HELTH
CONMAT
CONMAT
ENERG
ETRON
MEDIA
Source: Bloomberg
PET RO
HELTH
Jan-06
(2)
ENERG
PROP
PROP
ETRON
TRANS
SET
SET
BANK
BANK
TRANS
MEDIA
ICT
ICT
AUTO
AUTO
FOOD
COMM
FOOD
COMM
(5)
10
15
10
15
20
Source: Bloomberg
REGIONAL MARKET PERFORMANCE
REGIONAL FUND FLOWS
Change 1 Day (%)
Change 1 Day (-1D)
Change 1 Week (%)
(US$ m)
Nikkei
Nikkei
Nasdaq
Nasdaq
S&P500
S&P500
India
Indonesia
Dow Jones
China
Thailand
Philippines
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
(50)
(100 )
386
269
74
Asia-6
China
Dow Jones
S.Kor ea
Singapore
Hang Seng
Thailand
55
Taiwan Indone sia Thailan d
22
Phil ip.
19
India
(53)
Kor ea
Change 1 Week (-1W)

(US$ m)
Philippines
India
Taiwan
Taiwan
Indonesia
S.Kor ea
2,000
1,854
1,500
1,191
1,000
MSCI Asia x JP
Malaysia
Malaysia
MSCI Asia x JP
Singapore
Hang Seng
(1)
341
500
181
107
0
(2)
(1)
(500 )
Asia-6
Change 1 Month (%)
317
Taiwan Indone sia
Kor ea
Thailan d
Phil ip.
784
386
112
(283)
India
Change 1 Month (-1M)
(US$ m)
Nikkei
Th ailand
Th ailand
Philippines
India
India
Philippines
Hang Se ng
Nasdaq
Nikkei
S&P500
Nasdaq
Ta iwa n
MSCI Asia x JP
Indonesia
Indonesia
Singapore
Ta iwa n
Malaysia
S.Korea
Dow Jon es
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
(1,000)
(2,000)
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
(1,000)
(2,000)
Dow Jon es
China
China
(4 )
(2 )
(667)
Taiwan
India
Phil ip.
Indone sia Thailan d
Kor ea
(US$ m)
S&P500
Hang Se ng
2,466
Change Year-To-Date (YTD)
Malaysia
MSCI Asia x JP
3,629
Asia-6
Singapore
S.Korea
6,711
(5 )
10
6,715
3,629
2,471
784
386
112
(667)
Asia-6
Taiwan
India
Phil ip. Indone sia Thailan d
Kor ea
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
General Disclaimers And Disclosures:

This report is prepared and issued by Thanachart Securities Public Company Limited (TNS) as a resource only for clients of TNS,
Thanachart Capital Public Company Limited (TCAP) and its group companies. Copyright Thanachart Securities Public Company
Limited. All rights reserved. The report may not be reproduced in whole or in part or delivered to other persons without our written
consent.
This report is prepared by analysts who are employed by the research department of TNS. While the information is from sources
believed to be reliable, neither the information nor the forecasts shall be taken as a representation or warranty for which TNS or
TCAP or its group companies or any of their employees incur any responsibility. This report is provided to you for informational
purposes only and it is not, and is not to be construed as, an offer or an invitation to make an offer to sell or buy any securities.
Neither TNS, TCAP nor its group companies accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use
of this report or its contents.
The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable. However, TNS,
TCAP and its group companies make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to their accuracy or completeness.
Expressions of opinion herein are subject to change without notice. The use of any information, forecasts and opinions contained in
this report shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
TNS, TCAP and its group companies perform and seek to perform business with companies covered in this report. TNS, TCAP, its
group companies, their employees and directors may have positions and financial interest in securities mentioned in this report. TNS,
TCAP or its group companies may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or
other business from, any entity mentioned in this report. Therefore, investors should be aware of conflict of interest that may affect the
objectivity of this report.
Recommendation Structure:
Recommendations are based on absolute upside or downside, which is the difference between the target price and the current
market price. If the upside is 10% or more, the recommendation is BUY. If the downside is 10% or more, the recommendation is
SELL. For stocks where the upside or downside is less than 10%, the recommendation is HOLD. Unless otherwise specified, these
recommendations are set with a 12-month horizon. Thus, it is possible that future price volatility may cause a temporary mismatch
between upside/downside for a stock based on the market price and the formal recommendation.
For sectors, we look at two areas, ie, the sector outlook and the sector weighting. For the sector outlook, an arrow pointing up, or the
word Positive, is used when we see the industry trend improving. An arrow pointing down, or the word Negative, is used when we
see the industry trend deteriorating. A double-tipped horizontal arrow, or the word Unchanged, is used when the industry trend does
not look as if it will alter. The industry trend view is our top-down perspective on the industry rather than a bottom-up interpretation
from the stocks we cover. An Overweight sector weighting is used when we have BUYs on majority of the stocks under our
coverage by market cap. Underweight is used when we have SELLs on majority of the stocks we cover by market cap. Neutral is
used when there are relatively equal weightings of BUYs and SELLs.
Thanachart Securities Pcl.

Research Team
28 Floor, Siam Tower Unit A1
989 Rama 1, Pathumwan Road, Bangkok 10330
Tel: 662 - 617 4900
Email: thanachart.res@thanachartsec.co.th
Supanna Suwankird
Energy, Utilities
Siriporn Arunothai
Ad Hoc Research, Healthcare
supanna.suw@thanachartsec.co.th
siriporn.aru@thanachartsec.co.th
Sarachada Sornsong
Financial, Telecom
Saksid Phadthananarak
Construction, Transportation
Noppadol Piriyawut
Senior Technical Analyst
sarachada.sor@thanachartsec.co.th
saksid.pha@thanachartsec.co.th
noppadol.pri@thanachartsec.co.th
Phannarai Tiyapittayarut
Property, Retail
Kalvalee Thongsomaung
Food, Hotel, Media
Adisak Phupiphathirungul, CFA

Retail Market Strategy
phannarai.von@thanachartsec.co.th
kalvalee.tho@thanachartsec.co.th
adisak.phu@thanachartsec.co.th
Ittikorn Thepmani
Insurance
Rata Limsuthiwanpoom
Assistant Analyst
Chalida Tantriyanont
Assistant Analyst
ittikorn.the@thanachartsec.co.th
Rata.Lim@thanachartsec.co.th
chalida.tan@thanachartsec.co.th
Pimpaka Nichgaroon, CFA

Head of Research
Economics & Strategy
pimpaka.nic@thanachartsec.co.th

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THAILANDs TOP LOCAL KNOWLEDGE

Thanacharts Morning Note

Friday, February 13, 2015

Net trade (Bt bn)

Mkt Cap (Bt bn)

SET Index vs MSCI Asia x JP

SET index (LHS)

BTSs analyst meeting

More O&M contracts are expected to be awarded in 3Q & early 2016

Weak 4Q14 results, in line

Strong 4Q14 results beat us marginally

MSCI Asia x JP ( RHS)

2014F 2015F 2016F

Norm EPS growth (%)

Net D/E (x)

Currency /Bond data

10Y bond yield (TH)

10Y treasury yield (US)

BRENT (ICE) (US$/bbl)

Baltic Dry Index

Rubber SICOM TSR20

Source: Thanachart , Bloomberg, Datastream, Banpu

THAILANDs TOP LOCAL KNOWLEDGE

BTS Group Holdings Pcl

Friday, February 13, 2015

Saksid Phadthananarak | Email: saksid.pha@thanachartsec.co.th

BTSs analyst meeting

More O&M contracts are expected to be awarded in 3Q & early 2016

SPV with AEON is expected to provide a yield of 8% per year.

Norm net profit

Norm EPS gr (%)

Div. yield (%)

Given the governments policy to consider direct negotiation with existing

Net D/E (%)

Source: Thanachart estimates

Target price (Bt)

Market Cap (US$ m)

Avg daily turnover (US$ m)

12M H/L price (Bt)

The purpose is to issue AEON Rabbit member cards which includes

BTS Group Holdings

Rel to SET Index

Sources: Thanachart estimate, Bloomberg

Even though we forecast BTSs earnings to be quite flat in FY16-17 due to a

THAILANDs TOP LOCAL KNOWLEDGE

Friday, February 13, 2015

Big C Supercenter Pcl (BIGC TB) - SELL, Price Bt229, TP Bt177

Phannarai Tiyapittayarut | Email: phannarai.von@thanachartsec.co.th

Weak 4Q14 results, in line

BIGC reported weak 4Q14 profit as expected of Bt2.5bn, down

4Q14 results turned to a negative growth y-y due mainly to

Yr-end Dec (Bt m )

Norm alized profit

Equity & invest. income

Norm alized profit

Other current assets

Operating profit grow th

Norm profit grow th

Norm EPS grow th

Norm net margin

Net D/E (x)

Cash & equivalent

Yr-end Dec (Bt m )

Other current liabilities