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Social Media &

Lok Sabha Elections


A study finds that Facebook users may be the new
votebank Indian politicians have to now worry about.

ndian democracy is on the cusp of a


revolution led by social media users. At a
very conservative estimate, the fortunes of

contestants seeking election to the next Lok


1

Sabha from not less than 150 constituencies will


be determined by Facebook users making them
the newest Vote Bank with the power to shape
Indian politics.
The inevitability of a three way split of the
popular vote between the ruling UPA, the
principal opposition NDA and the emerging third
front formations increases the relevance of social
media users as a community, rendering unto
them an opportunity like never before to register
their presence.
A study carried out by the independent IRIS
Knowledge Foundation suggests that social
media usage is now sufficiently widespread to
have the power to influence the outcome of the
next elections to the Lok Sabha and consequently
government formation. The research was
conducted with data available in March 2013.
With Facebook emerging as the gorilla in the
social media space, the clout that Facebook users
enjoy is immense. The study has serious
implications, all of it positive, for Indian
democracy, for the way it empowers the citizens.
The study underscores the need for candidates to
chalk out a well thought out social media strategy
for their campaigns to be effective.
The success of social media in general and Facebook in particular in catalysing change will be predicated
on marrying the community which social media is able to create with relevant content to enhance
3

accountability. The relevance of XBRL in achieving this end cannot be emphasised enough as it allows
things to be mixed and matched in a manner hitherto unexplored. This explains the excitement in the USA
about the DATA Act which seeks to mandate the use of data standards such as XBRL. This promises to
usher in what we call c-governance or citizen led governance, the next logical step in the e governance
roadmap of countries worldwide.
1

Elections to the Lok Sabha can be called any time anytime between now and the end of the Parliament's 5 year term on May 31,
2014 by when elections must be completed and a new Lok Sabha constituted.
2

Out of a total of 543 constituencies to which elections will be held

XBRL or eXtensible business reporting language is an XML based information standard which is becoming ubiquitous around
the world. For more info visit www.xbrl.org

www.esocialsciences.com

Why the study


The inspiration for the study is three fold.

rape incident in Delhi. Citizen activism is higher


than ever before and the young in India are

Firstly, given the proximity of elections which

certainly showing a fair amount of restlessness

cannot be more than a year away, we felt it would

and unhappiness at the state of affairs. It is

be the right time to identify broad trends and

unlikely that the voice that the citizenry found

recent events that may impact the elections.

would stay suppressed for long and it would be

There clear factors emerge in this context.

interesting to see if it finds expression through

1. The Indian electorate has never been younger.


Between 2004 and 2009, the voting population
went up from 670 million to 720 million. The
number is expected to increase to 800 million by
the time the country goes to the polls, a greater
number of voters than ever before will be 25
years or younger.

their vote at the hustings. It is significant to note


that online media generally and social media in
general have played a huge role in mobilizing
people for protests. The highest tribute that could
have been paid by way of recognizing this is the
setting up of a social media lab by Mumbai police
to track social media activity to anticipate
possible trouble spots and identify those they see
as trouble makers.
3. India is also rapidly urbanizing which is seen as
a sign of upward mobility. This has serious
consequences for the aspirations of the residents
and the extent to which they would go to realize
their objectives. Anecdotal evidence suggests
that an urbanized population is also an assertive
population, and prepared to take an aggressive
posture, and easily swayed given their access to
not just state controlled media but also alternate
points of view not available to them until now.
Secondly, a report entitled Social Media in India
2012 released by the Internet and Mobile
4

Association of India (IAMAI) in February 2013


throws up interesting findings.
Cartoon in the Romanian political newspaper Aurora, during
the 1926 parliamentary election. The People's' Party and its
shadow partner, the National Liberal Party are represented as
two rats with the caption : The elector's seal -- death to all
sorts of political rats

2. The last 5 years has also seen a greater


expression of disaffection in the government and
the political class by the citizenry who have taken
to the streets to protest. This was seen during the
fast by Anna Hazare, even if the protests did not
last for long. This happened during the infamous

1. The IAMAI report places the number of social


media users in Urban India at 62 Million (Mn) by
December 2012. The same report estimates that
the number of social media users will top 66
4

The Internet and Mobile Association of India [IAMAI]


established in 2004 represents the online and mobile VAS
industry in India. With a membership of 125 Indian and
global companies, IAMAI is working to chart the growth
path for the digital industry in India. Website: www.iamai.in

www.esocialsciences.com

million by June 2013. It is logical therefore that

outstripped Romney's by a mile though a greater

by the time elections to the 16th Lok Sabha are

percentage of Romney followers were talking.

held in mid 2014, the numbers would be even

Obama ran away with the election because he

higher, possibly closer to 80 million if the trend

used analytics to do peer to peer targeting. Which

holds. It is also likely that the 25 million strong

is another source of inspiration for this research.

Indian NRI community who now have voting

For peer to peer targeting to be effective, there

rights would follow elections more closely even if

has to be a critical mass of social media users, the

they are not able to be physically present in India

numbers have to be there. But it is not the number

to be able to cast their vote, they can be a big

of fans or the number of likes and tweets that are

influencer too. After all, they are considerably

going to determine the probability of winning of a

active on social media.

certain candidate but the ability of the candidate


to engage with the electorate, by rising above the

2. What the IAMAI report also highlights is that

media clutter and by trying to get his or her

Facebook is the leading website accessed by all

message across to the voter directly. In today's

social media users, with as many as 97% of them

India, the number of social media users to achieve

registering a presence on Facebook. The study

this end has reached a tipping point. May be not in

also finds that next to e mail, social media usage is

every one of the 543 constituencies but certainly

the biggest reason for people to connect to the

in a significant number of them to warrant the

internet. It is also significant to note that people

conclusion that they have the power to influence

use social media 7 days a week.

elections and therefore government formation.

3. A third factor of significant relevance from the


point of view of this study is the revelation in the
IAMAI report that social media usage is spreading
fast in areas other than the top eight Indian
metros. One third of the social media users, as the
study reveals, are residents of smaller towns with
population of under 500000. Even more
significant is the fact that a quarter of social
media users are residents of towns with a
population less than 200000.
The third factor which prompted the study was
the impact of social media on the US Presidential
elections. In a piece in the MIT Technology
Review5 entitled Facebook: The Real Presidential
swing State, writer David Talbot had predicted
that the outcome of the 2012 campaign could
have less to do with grand vision than online data
analytics and peer to peer voter targeting. As it
turned out, the Obama victory is credited to just
that. Obama's followers on Facebook and Twitter
5

August 15, 2012

Barack Obama

www.esocialsciences.com

The Methodology
The approach to the study is quite

3. When viewed against the backdrop of 419000

straightforward. We kept it simple.

Facebook users in this constituency, it is self


evident that Facebook users wield a tremendous

1. We went by the data published by Facebook on

influence over the fortunes of the candidates in

their website to help advertisers target their


audience better. We culled the data from this

this constituency especially in a tight race.


4. We went through this exercise for each and

page, constituency by constituency, one

every constituency in the country and classified

constituency at a time. For instance, in the case of

them in four ways High Impact, Moderate

the Thane Parliamentary constituency, we found

Impact, Low Impact and No Impact. The data has

that there were over 400000 Facebook users who

been presented in the sheets that follow.

were eligible to vote on the day the data was


pulled out. (On the day we wrote this report, we

5. In our classification, High Impact

found that the number has gone up to over

constituencies are those where the number of

419580.) According to Facebook, these people

Facebook users are more than the margin of

have disclosed that they live in Thane or in Navi

victory of the winner in the last Lok Sabha

Mumbai which is part of the Thane Parliamentary

election, or where Facebook users account for

constituency.

over 10% of the voting population. Our analysis


throws up 160 High Impact Constituencies out of

(Writers note: We are stunned to see that within a


space of just three weeks when the data was first
culled to now when the report is being written up,
as many as 20000 new potential voters would
clamber on to Facebook, this can only accelerate as
elections approach and the noise level on Facebook
attracts new converts)

the total of 543 which will go to the polls.

2. Parallelly, we downloaded data from the

6. The Medium Impact constituencies are those

election commission to find out the number of

where we have assumed that a Facebook user can

registered voters and the actual voter turnout in

influence one other voter who may not be on

the constituency during the last Lok Sabha

Facebook. Constituencies where the total number

elections. We also looked at the margin of victory

of Facebook users is in excess of 5% of the voting

of the winning candidate from the constituency.

population. A total of 67 out of the 543

(In the interest of maintaining consistency, we

constituencies have been identified as being in

ignored data that may have been thrown up in the

this category.

course of any by elections.)


7. The rest of the constituencies have been
Thus, in Thane Parliamentary constituency in

identified as Low Impact Constituencies or No

Maharashtra which we are using as an example

impact constituencies. The corresponding

for this write up, we found that of the 1.8 million

numbers are 60 out of 543 in the Low Impact

registered voters, 750000 showed up to actually

category and the remaining 256 out of 543 as

vote. The winning candidate won by a relatively

being in the No Impact Category.

narrow margin of 49000 votes.


8. The detailed list is provided in the Appendices.

www.esocialsciences.com

Limitations and caveats


1. Our approach can be dismissed for being

analysis, we have culled data only by the name of

simple to the point of being simplistic. We have

the constituency and deliberately neglected to

used the number of Facebook users as an

include other places in the vicinity which too may

indication of the clout of social media instead of

have some number of Facebook users. Thus it

analyzing their behaviour to see if they are really

would be fair to say that the number of Facebook

active and showing signs of wanting to make an

users in each constituency is understated. We

impact. However, we feel that this criticism may

will produce an updated version of the study in

not hold as the mere presence on Facebook

late 2013 with more refined data which includes

allows users access to alternate sources of

as many places in a constituency as we can

information and divergent points of view. Also

possibly identify.

Facebook users, even when passive, turn out to be


listeners and there is enough evidence to suggest

4. Another reason for the understatement is what

that when the time for action arrives, they may act

we call the contiguous effect. For example,

in ways that could surprise everyone by the

Jadavpur and Diamond Harbour are both Lok

unexpected nature of their reaction. Hence the

Sabha constituencies in the vicinity of Kolkata.

numbers are certainly a reasonable basis to form

While data for each of these places throws up a

conclusion. Without a doubt, a critical mass

small number of Facebook users, the fact that

exists.

Jadavpur borders the Kolkata Dakshin


constituency and is part of Greater Kolkata means

2. We acknowledge that we may have understated

that the right number to take into consideration

the impact of social media by not considering

would be the aggregate number for Kolkata. Ditto

other social media networks such as Twitter to

in the case of Diamond Harbor. Now, both of these

cite just one. If we had considered data from other

constituencies, are classified as Low or no Impact

social media and added that too, the sphere of

constituencies which cannot be correct but in the

influence of social media would be that much

absence of more detailed data, we will stick to this

greater. The IAMAI finding that over 97% social

classification for now.

media users are on Facebook gave us the


justification to confine this research to Facebook

5. The simple arithmetic approach to identifying

alone.

the constituencies as high, medium and low


impact does not factor in voter behaviour on

3. Even so, the impact of Facebook is understated

account of any possible anti incumbency effect or

in this study. A simple example will drive home

political realignments. In any event, since the

this point. Consider a constituency called Durg in

purpose of the study is limited to assessing

the state of Chattisgarh. According to the latest

whether Facebook users will at all have an impact

Facebook data, the number of social media users

if they so choose, we feel that the answer to this

in Durg who are potential voters by virtue of

question is obvious.

being residents of Durg and on account of being


more than 18 years old is 24780. (At the time we
culled the data, the number was 24320). Now
consider this. The industrial town of Bhilai is part
of the Durg constituency and boasts of 104220
people who make the electoral cut. In all of our

www.esocialsciences.com

Implications of the study for Contestants


1. No contestant can afford to ignore social media
in the next Lok Sabha election. Just as they have
budgets for traditional media spend and on the
ground activity, it is important that they have a
specific budget for social media activity.
2. When one sees the wins of the Congress and the
BJP in the last Lok Sabha elections, we find that 75
of the 206 seats won (36%) by the Congress and
43 of the 144 seats (30%) where they finished
second are counted among the High Impact
constituencies. In the case of the BJP, we find that
44 of the 116 seats (37%) they won and 50 of the
110 seats (46%) they lost fall in the high Impact
category. A well thought out social media
campaign will not only be about retaining
previously won seats but also about wresting
new seats. While there can be no two views on the
fact that social media usage is a largely urban
phenomenon, a rapidly urbanising India with
even small towns reporting a fairly active social
media usage offers pointers to how campaign
focus may need to be in order to gain new wins
while retaining the existing seats.

aggregate data about those that they seek to elect


but making such data available in a granular form
could well trigger a different response from the
voter than ever before. For instance, we wonder
how a voter would react when faced with the
choice of electing an MP whose attendance record
in parliament is dismal or whose election
affidavit shows that his personal fortune has
increased manifold over the last 5 years or whose
comments display a huge level of insensitivity
towards women.

3. Unlike traditional campaigning which is


mandatorily required to come to a close 48 hours
before the polls, it is unlikely that the Election
Commission will be able to legislate and enforce
silence on social media networks as it would be
tantamount to stifling the voice of the people.
Which means that any development even in the
hours of polling can potentially influence voter
behaviour as the information will spread like wild
fire. What this also means is that savvy candidates
can harness the power of social media to unleash
a guerilla campaign on their opponents without
giving them the time to respond. We may see
some candidates take a hit and run strategy.
4. We believe that by mashing up this data with
social indicators of a constituency and personal
attributes of contestants, democracy will win. It is
one thing to share with a voting population,

www.esocialsciences.com

Long run impact


The impact of social media on elections

This possibility is already reflected in legislative

worldwide will be enhanced even further as

proposals in the United States. Last April, the U.S.

governments adopt open data policies that is,

House of Representatives passed the Digital

requirements for important government

Accountability and Transparency Act, or DATA

information to be published online, in non-

Act, which would have required all U.S.

proprietary formats such as XBRL that open it up

government spending information to be

to search and analysis tools. Open data principles

published in an open format like XBRL at

also dictate that when governments publish a

permanent web addresses, with an explicit

particular piece of information be it a spending

requirement for the information to be made

detail, a regulatory filing, proposed legislation, a

available to be freely shared by the public, such

judicial opinion, or almost anything else they

as by social media. Further action on the DATA

use stable Web addresses, known as Persistent

Act is expected in the U.S. Congress in the spring

Uniform Resource Locators (PURLs), as much as

of 2013. The Data Transparency Coalition, a U.S.

possible. PURLs allow the information to be

trade association of technology firms, has

shared easily via Facebook and other social

become the primary private-sector advocate for

networks. Facebook users can instantly share a

the DATA Act and similar legislation. One of the

PURL with all their friends, and those users can

Coalition's policy goals is to make all government

share it in turn with their own friends, because a

information shareable via Facebook and other

PURL functions as a permanent link to the

social networks. Here in India, IRIS Knowledge

information. The combination of stable

Foundation, the publishers of this study are

publication via PURLs, easy analysis thanks to

seeking to do the same.

XBRL and other formats, and wide dispersion via


Facebook sharing promises to make the online
democratic conversation more sophisticated and
more relevant than ever before.

www.esocialsciences.com

APPENDIX
Appendix 1:
High Impact Constituencies

State

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Arunachal Pradesh
Assam
Assam
Assam
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Chandigarh
Chattisgarh
Chattisgarh
Chattisgarh
Chattisgarh
Dadra & Nagar Haveli
Goa
Goa
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat

Hyderabad
Visakhapatnam
Vijayawada
Guntur
Rajahmundry
Kakinada
Tirupati
Nellore
Karimnagar
Narasaraopet
Chittoor
Arunachal West
Dibrugarh
Silchar
Tezpur
Pataliputra
Patna Sahib
Muzaffarpur
Buxar
Chandigarh
Raipur
Bilaspur
Korba
Durg
Dadar & Nagar Haveli
North Goa
South Goa
Surat
Rajkot
Bhavnagar
Jamnagar
Kheda
Valsad
Panchmahal
Junagadh
Bharuch
Banaskantha
Anand
Mahesana
Sabarkantha
Patan
Surendranagar
Ahmedabad East
Ahmedabad West

Asaduddin Owaisi
Daggubati Purandeswari
Lagadapati Raja Gopal
Rayapati Sambasiva Rao
Aruna Kumar Vundavalli
M.M.Pallamraju
Chinta Mohan
Mekapati Rajamohan Reddy
Ponnam Prabhakar
Modugula Venugopala Reddy
Naramalli Sivaprasad
Takam Sanjoy
Paban Singh Ghatowar
Kabindra Purkayastha
Joseph Toppo
Ranjan Prasad Yadav
Shatrughan Sinha
Captain Jai Narayan Prasad Nishad
Jagada Nand Singh
Pawan Kumar Bansal
Ramesh Bais
Dilip Singh Judev
Charan Das Mahant
Saroj Pandey
Patel Natubhai Gomanbhai
Shripad Yesso Naik
Cosme Francisco Caitano Sardinha
Shrimati Darshana Vikram Jardosh
Kuvarjibhai Mohanbhai Bavalia
Rajendrasinh Ghanshyamsinh Rana (Rajubhai Rana)
Ahir Vikrambhai Arjanbhai Madam
Dinsha Patel
Kishanbhai Vestabhai Patel
Chauhan Prabhatsinh Pratapsinh
Solanki Dinubhai Boghabhai
Mansukhbhai Dhanjibhai Vasava
Gadhvi Mukeshkumar Bheiravdanji
Solanki Bharatbhai Madhavsinh
Patel Jayshreeben Kanubhai
Chauhan Mahendrasinh
Jagdish Thakor
Koli Patel Somabhai Gandalal
Harin Pathak
Dr. Solanki Kiritbhai Premajibhai

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 1: High Impact Constituencies

State

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Haryana
Haryana
Haryana
Haryana
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Jammu & Kashmir
Jammu & Kashmir
Jammu & Kashmir
Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Maharashtra

Gurgaon
Faridabad
Ambala
Sirsa
Hisar
Mandi
Kangra
Srinagar
Jammu
Anantnag
Udhampur
Ranchi
Jamshedpur
Dhanbad
Singhbhum
Mysore
Dakshina Kannada
Gulbarga
Bellary
Davanagere
Udupi Chikmagalur
Tumkur
Uttara Kannada
Bangalore Rural
Bangalore North
Bangalore Central
Bangalore South
Thiruvananthapuram
Ernakulam
Palakkad
Kottayam
Thrissur
Alappuzha
Kollam
Malappuram
Kozhikode
Kannur
Indore
Bhopal
Gwalior
Jabalpur
Ujjain
Rewa
Satna
Dewas
Dhar
Pune
Nagpur

Inderjit Singh
Avtar Singh Bhadana
Selja
Ashok Tanwar
Bhajan Lal S/O Kheraj
Virbhadra Singh
Dr. Rajan Sushant
Farooq Abdullah
Madan Lal Sharma
Mirza Mehboob Beg
Ch. Lal Singh
Subodh Kant Sahay
Arjun Munda
Pashupati Nath Singh
Madhu Kora
Adagur H Vishwanath
Nalin Kumar Kateel
Mallikarjun Kharge
J. Shantha
G.M. Siddeswara
D.V.Sadananda Gowda
G.S. Basavaraj
Anantkumar Hegde
H.D.Kumaraswamy
D. B. Chandre Gowda
P. C. Mohan
Ananth Kumar
Shashi Tharoor
Prof. K V Thomas
M.B. Rajesh
Jose K.Mani (Karingozheckal)
P C Chacko
K.C Venugopal
N.Peethambarakurup
E. Ahamed
M.K. Raghavan
K. Sudhakaran
Sumitra Mahajan (Tai)
Kailash Joshi
Yashodhara Raje Scindia
Rakesh Singh
Guddu Premchand
Deoraj Singh Patel
Ganesh Singh
Sajjan Singh Verma
Gajendra Singh Rajukhedi
Kalmadi Suresh
Muttemwar Vilasrao Baburaoji

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 1: High Impact Constituencies

State

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
NCT OF Delhi
NCT OF Delhi
NCT OF Delhi
NCT OF Delhi
NCT OF Delhi
NCT OF Delhi
NCT OF Delhi
Orissa
Punjab
Punjab
Punjab
Punjab
Punjab
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu

Aurangabad
Nashik
Thane
Kolhapur
Kalyan
Latur
Dhule
Sangli
Amravati
Jalna
Ahmadnagar
Osmanabad
Chandrapur
Mumbai North
Mumbai North West
Mumbai North East
Mumbai North Central
Mumbai South Central
Mumbai South
Chandni Chowk
North East Delhi
East Delhi
New Delhi
North West Delhi
West Delhi
South Delhi
Sambalpur
Ludhiana
Amritsar
Hoshiarpur
Patiala
Gurdaspur
Jaipur
Jodhpur
Kota
Bikaner
Tonk-Sawai Madhopur
Coimbatore
Salem
Tirunelveli
Erode
Madurai
Viluppuram
Virudhunagar
Kancheepuram
Sivaganga
Chennai North
Chennai South

Chandrakant Khaire
Sameer Bhujbal
Dr.Sanjeev Ganesh Naik
Sadashivrao Dadoba Mandlik
Anand Prakash Paranjape
Awale Jaywant Gangaram
Sonawane Pratap Narayanrao
Pratik Prakashbapu Patil
Adsul Anandrao Vithoba
Danve Raosaheb Dadarao
Gandhi Dilipkumar Mansukhlal
Patil Padamsinha Bajirao
Ahir Hansaraj Gangaram
Sanjay Brijkishorlal Nirupam
Ad.Kamat Gurudas Vasant
Sanjay Dina Patil
Dutt Priya Sunil
Eknath M. Gaikwad
Deora Milind Murli
Kapil Sibal
Jai Prakash Agarwal
Sandeep Dikshit
Ajay Makan
Krishna Tirath
Mahabal Mishra
Ramesh Kumar
Amarnath Pradhan
Manish Tewari
Navjot Singh Sidhu
Santosh Chowdhary
Preneet Kaur
Partap Singh Bajwa
Mahesh Joshi
Chandresh Kumari
Ijyaraj Singh
Arjun Ram Meghwal
Namo Narain
Natarajan.P.R.
Semmalai S
Ramasubbu S
Ganeshamurthi.A.
Alagiri M.K
Anandan M
Manicka Tagore
Viswanathan.P
Chidambaram P
Elangovan T.K.S
Rajendran C

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 1: High Impact Constituencies

State

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Tamil Nadu
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal

Chennai Central
Lucknow
Kanpur
Gautam Buddh Nagar
Allahabad
Varanasi
Agra
Ghaziabad
Meerut
Bareilly
Aligarh
Moradabad
Muzaffarnagar
Chandauli
Kheri
Almora
Howrah
Balurghat
Kolkata Dakshin
Kolkata Uttar

Dayanidhi Maran
Lal Ji Tandon
Sri Prakash Jaiswal
Surendra Singh Nagar
Kunwar Rewati Raman Singh Alias Mani Ji
Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi
Dr. Ramshankar
Rajnath Singh
Rajendra Agarwal
Praveen Singh Aron
Raj Kumari Chauhan
Mohammed Azharuddin
Kadir Rana
Ramkishun
Zafar Ali Naqvi
Pradeep Tamta
Ambica Banerjee
Prasanta Kumar Majumdar
Mamata Banerjee
Sudip Bandyopadhyay

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 2: Moderate Impact Constituencies

State

Constituency

Sitting MP

Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Assam
Assam
Assam
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Daman & Diu
Gujarat
Gujarat
Haryana
Haryana
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Meghalaya
Meghalaya
Mizoram
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Puducherry
Punjab
Punjab
Rajasthan
Rajasthan

Warangal
Kurnool
Eluru
Anantapur
Srikakulam
Machilipatnam
Gauhati
Jorhat
Karimganj
Bhagalpur
Katihar
Darbhanga
Madhubani
Daman & Diu
Vadodara
Gandhinagar
Karnal
Bhiwani-Mahendragarh
Rohtak
Shimla
Belgaum
Bijapur
Shimoga
Raichur
Mandya
Kasaragod
Ratlam
Shahdol
Mandsour
Solapur
Nanded
Akola
Jalgaon
Ratnagiri - Sindhudurg
Bhiwandi
Palghar
Shillong
Tura
Mizoram
Bhubaneswar
Berhampur
Balasore
Sundargarh
Puducherry
Sangrur
Ferozpur
Udaipur
Ajmer

Rajaiah Siricilla
Kotla Jaya Surya Prakash Reddy
Kavuri Sambasiva Rao
Anantha Venkata Rami Reddy
Killi Krupa Rani
Konakalla Narayana Rao
Bijoya Chakravarty
Bijoy Krishna Handique
Lalit Mohan Suklabaidya
Syed Shahnawaz Hussain
Nikhil Kumar Choudhary
Kirti Azad
Hukmadeo Narayan Yadav
Lalubhai Patel
Balkrishna Khanderao Shukla (Balu Shukla)
L.K.Advani
Arvind Kumar Sharma
Shruti Choudhry
Deepender Singh
Virender Kashyap
Angadi Suresh Channabasappa
Ramesh Chandappa Jigajinagi
B.Y. Raghavendra
Pakkirappa.S.
N Cheluvaraya Swamy @ Swamygowda
P Karunakaran
Kantilal Bhuria
Rajesh Nandini Singh
Meenakshi Natrajan
Shinde Sushilkumar Sambhajirao
Khatgaonkar Patil Bhaskarrao Bapurao
Dhotre Sanjay Shamrao
A.T. Nana Patil
Dr.Nilesh Narayan Rane
Taware Suresh Kashinath
Jadhav Baliram Sukur
Vincent H Pala
Agatha K. Sangma
C.L.Ruala
Prasanna Kumar Patasani
Sidhant Mohapatra
Srikant Kumar Jena
Hemanand Biswal
Narayanasamy
Vijay Inder Singla
Sher Singh Ghubaya
Raghuvir Singh Meena
Sachin Pilot

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 2: Moderate Impact Constituencies

State

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal

Churu
Vellore
Kanniyakumari
Cuddalore
Tiruchirappalli
Karur
Gorakhpur
Jhansi
Saharanpur
Rampur
Azamgarh
Sitapur
Faizabad
Bijnor
Fatehpur Sikri
Mirzapur
Burdwan - Durgapur
Asansol
Purulia

Ram Singh Kaswan


Abdul Rahman
Helen Davidson J
Alagiri S
Kumar.P
Thambidurai.M
Adityanath
Pradeep Kumar Jain (Aditya)
Jagdish Singh Rana
Jaya Prada Nahata
Ramakant Yadav
Kaisar Jahan
Nirmal Khatri
Sanjay Singh Chauhan
Seema Upadhyay
Bal Kumar Patel
Sk. Saidul Haque
Bansa Gopal Chowdhury
Narahari Mahato

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 3:
Low / No Impact Constituencies

State

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Andaman & Nicobar Islands


Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Arunachal Pradesh
Assam
Assam
Assam
Assam
Assam
Assam
Assam
Assam
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar

Andaman & Nicobar Islands


Nizamabad
Vizianagaram
Ongole
Mahbubnagar
Medak
Malkajgiri
Chelvella
Aruku
Adilabad
Peddapalle
Zahirabad
Secundrabad
Nagarkurnool
Nalgonda
Bhongir
Mahabubabad
Khammam
Anakapalli
Amalapuram
Narsapuram
Bapatla
Nandyal
Hindupur
Kadapa
Rajampet
Arunachal East
Lakhimpur
Barpeta
Autonomous District
Kaliabor
Dhubri
Kokrajhar
Mangaldoi
Nowgong
Gaya
Siwan
Valmiki Nagar
Ujiarpur
Karakat
Paschim Champaran
Purvi Champaran
Sheohar
Sitamarhi
Jhanjharpur
Supaul

Shri. Bishnu Pada Ray


Madhu Yaskhi Goud
Jhansi Lakshmi Botcha
Magunta Srinivasulu Reddy
K. Chandrasekhar Rao
Vijaya Shanthi .M
Sarvey Sathyanarayana
Jaipal Reddy Sudini
Kishore Chandra Suryanarayana Deo Vyricherla
Rathod Ramesh
Dr.G.Vivekanand
Suresh Kumar Shetkar
Anjan Kumar Yadav M
Dr. Manda Jagannath
Gutha Sukender Reddy
Komatireddy Raj Gopal Reddy
P. Balram
Nama Nageswara Rao
Sabbam Hari
G.V.Harsha Kumar
Bapiraju Kanumuru
Panabaka Lakshmi
S.P.Y.Reddy
Kristappa Nimmala
Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy
Annayyagari Sai Prathap
Ninong Ering
Ranee Narah
Ismail Hussain
Biren Singh Engti
Dip Gogoi
Badruddin Ajmal
Sansuma Khunggur Bwiswmuthiary
Ramen Deka
Rajen Gohain
Hari Manjhi
Om Prakash Yadav
Baidyanath Prasad Mahto
Aswamedh Devi
Mahabali Singh
Dr. Sanjay Jaiswal
Radha Mohan Singh
Rama Devi
Arjun Roy
Mangani Lal Mandal
Vishwa Mohan Kumar

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 3:
Low / No Impact Constituencies

State

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Bihar
Chattisgarh
Chattisgarh
Chattisgarh
Chattisgarh
Chattisgarh
Chattisgarh
Chattisgarh
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Gujarat
Haryana
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Jammu & Kashmir
Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Jharkhand

Araria
Kishanganj
Purnia
Madhepura
Vaishali
Gopalganj
Maharajganj
Saran
Hajipur
Samastipur
Begusarai
Khagaria
Banka
Munger
Nalanda
Arrah
Sasaram
Jahanabad
Aurangabad
Nawada
Jamui
Raigarh
Sarguja
Janjgir-Champa
Rajnandgaon
Mahasamund
Bastar
Kanker
Amreli
Porbandar
Bardoli
Kachchh
Dahod
Chhota Udaipur
Navsari
Kurukshetra
Sonipat
Hamirpur
Ladakh
Baramulla
Hazaribagh
Godda
Dumka
Rajmahal
Chatra
Kodarma
Giridih
Khunti

Pradeep Kumar Singh


Mohammad Asrarul Haque
Uday Singh Alias Pappu Singh
Sharad Yadav
Raghuvansh Prasad Singh
Purnmasi Ram
Uma Shanaker Singh
Lalu Prasad
Ram Sundar Das
Maheshwar Hazari
Dr. Monazir Hassan
Dinesh Chandra Yadav
Digvijay Singh
Rajiv Ranjan Singh Alias Lalan Singh
Kaushalendra Kumar
Meena Singh
Meira Kumar
Jagdish Sharma
Sushil Kumar Singh
Bhola Singh
Bhudeo Choudhary
Vishnu Deo Sai
Murarilal Singh
Shrimati Kamla Devi Patle
Madhusudan Yadav
Chandulal Sahu (Chandu Bhaiya)
Baliram Kashyap
Sohan Potai
Kachhadia Naranbhai
Radadiya Vitthalbhai Hansrajbhai
Chaudhari Tusharbhai Amrasinhbhai
Jat Poonamben Veljibhai
Dr. Prabha Kishor Taviad
Rathwa Ramsingbhai Patalbhai
C. R. Patil
Naveen Jindal
Jitender Singh
Anurag Singh Thakur
Hassan Khan
Sharief Ud Din Shariq
Yashwant Sinha
Nishikant Dubey
Shibu Soren
Devidhan Besra
Inder Singh Namdhari
Babulal Marandi
Ravindra Kumar Pandey
Karia Munda

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 3:
Low / No Impact Constituencies

State

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Karnataka
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Lakshadweep
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra

Lohardaga
Palamau
Bidar
Bagalkot
Dharwad
Chamarajanagar
Chikkodi
Koppal
Haveri
Hassan
Chitradurga
Chikkballapur
Kolar
Mavelikkara
Vadakara
Alathur
Chalakudy
Pathanamthitta
Attingal
Wayanad
Ponnani
Idukki
Lakshadweep
Sagar
Hoshangabad
Khandwa
Balaghat
Khargone
Morena
Bhind
Guna
Tikamgarh
Damoh
Khajuraho
Sidhi
Mandla
Chhindwara
Vidisha
Rajgarh
Betul
Yavatmal-Washim
Parbhani
Wardha
Maval
Nandurbar
Raver
Buldhana
Ramtek

Sudarshan Bhagat
Kameshwar Baitha
N.Dharam Singh
Gaddigoudar P.C.
Pralhad Joshi
R.Dhruvanarayana
Katti Ramesh Vishwanath
Shivaramagouda Shivanagouda
Udasi Shivkumar Chanabasappa
H. D. Devegowda
Janardhana Swamy
M.Veerappa Moily
K.H.Muniyappa
Kodikkunnil Suresh
Mullappally Ramachandran
P.K Biju
K.P. Dhanapalan
Anto Antony Punnathaniyil
Adv. A Sampath
M.I. Shanavas
E.T. Muhammed Basheer
Adv. P.T Thomas
Hamdullah Sayeed
Bhupendra Singh
Uday Pratap Singh
Arun Subhashchandra Yadav
K. D. Deshmukh
Makansingh Solanki (Babuji)
Narendra Singh Tomar
Ashok Argal
Jyotiraditya Madhavrao Scindia
Virendra Kumar
Shivraj Bhaiya
Jeetendra Singh Bundela
Govind Prasad Mishra
Basori Singh Masram
Kamal Nath
Sushma Swaraj
Narayansingh Amlabe
Jyoti Dhurve
Bhavana Gawali (Patil)
Adv. Dudhgaonkar Ganeshrao Nagorao
Datta Meghe
Babar Gajanan Dharmshi
Gavit Manikrao Hodlya
Haribhau Madhav Jawale
Jadhav Prataprao Ganpatrao
Wasnik Mukul Balkrishna

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 3:
Low / No Impact Constituencies

State

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
Manipur
Manipur
Nagaland
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Orissa
Punjab
Punjab
Punjab
Punjab
Punjab
Punjab
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan

Bhandara - Gondiya
Gadchiroli-Chimur
Hingoli
Dindori
Raigad
Baramati
Shirur
Shirdi
Beed
Madha
Satara
Hatkanangle
Inner Manipur
Outer Manipur
Nagaland
Cuttack
Bargarh
Keonjhar
Mayurbhanj
Bhadrak
Jajpur
Dhenkanal
Bolangir
Kalahandi
Nabarangpur
Kandhamal
Kendrapara
Jagatsinghpur
Puri
Aska
Koraput
Faridkot
Fatehgarh Sahib
Khadoor Sahib
Anandpur Sahib
Jalandhar
Bathinda
Bhilwara
Ganganagar
Sikar
Jhunjhunu
Chittorgarh
Jaipur Rural
Alwar
Bharatpur
Karauli-Dholpur
Dausa
Nagaur

Patel Praful Manoharbhai


Kowase Marotrao Sainuji
Subhash Bapurao Wankhede
Chavan Harishchandra Deoram
Anant Geete
Supriya Sule
Adhalrao Shivaji Dattatray
Wakchaure Bhausaheb Rajaram
Munde Gopinathrao Pandurang
Pawar Sharadchandra Govindrao
Bhonsle Shrimant Chh. Udyanraje Pratapsinhmaharaj
Shetti Raju Alias Devappa Anna
Dr. Thokchom Meinya
Thangso Baite
C.M. Chang
Bhartruhari Mahtab
Sanjay Bhoi
Yashbant Narayan Singh Laguri
Laxman Tudu
Arjun Charan Sethi
Mohan Jena
Tathagata Satpathy
Kalikesh Narayan Singh Deo
Bhakta Charan Das
Pradeep Kumar Majhi
Rudramadhab Ray
Baijayant Panda
Bibhu Prasad Tarai
Pinaki Misra
Nityananda Pradhan
Jayaram Pangi
Paramjit Kaur Gulshan
Sukhdev Singh
Dr. Rattan Singh Ajnala
Ravneet Singh
Mohinder Singh Kaypee
Harsimrat Kaur Badal
Dr. C. P. Joshi
Bharat Ram Meghwal
Mahadev Singh
Sheesh Ram Ola
(Dr.)Girija Vyas
Lal Chand Kataria
Jitendra Singh
Ratan Singh
Khiladi Lal Bairwa
Kirodi Lal
Dr. Jyoti Mirdha

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 3:
Low / No Impact Constituencies

State

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Sikkim
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tripura
Tripura
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh

Pali
Barmer
Jalore
Banswara
Rajsamand
Jhalawar-Baran
Sikkim
Thanjavur
Dindigul
Thoothukkudi
Namakkal
Theni
Arani
Kallakurichi
Tiruppur
Thiruvallur
Sriperumbudur
Arakkonam
Krishnagiri
Dharmapuri
Tiruvannamalai
Nilgiris
Pollachi
Perambalur
Chidambaram
Mayiladuthurai
Nagapattinam
Ramanathapuram
Tenkasi
Tripura West
Tripura East
Mathura
Jaunpur
Deoria
Shahjahanpur
Etawah
Pratapgarh
Kushi Nagar
Farrukhabad
Gonda
Bahraich
Sambhal
Ballia
Badaun
Nagina
Dhaurahra
Bhadohi
Kairana

Badri Ram Jakhar


Harish Choudhary
Devji Patel
Tarachand Bhagora
Gopal Singh
Dushyant Singh
Prem Das Rai
Palanimanickam.S.S
Chitthan N S V
Jeyadurai.S.R
Gandhiselvan.S
Aaron Rashid.J.M
Krishnasswamy M
Sankar Adhi
Sivasami C
Venugopal.P
Baalu T R
Jagathrakshakan
Sugavanam. E.G.
Thamaraiselvan. R
Venugopal.D
Raja A
Sugumar.K
Napoleon,D.
Thirumaavalavan, Thol
Maniyan O.S.
Vijayan A K S
Sivakumar @ J.K. Ritheesh. K
Lingam P
Khagen Das
Baju Ban Riyan
Jayant Chaudhary
Dhananjay Singh
Gorakh Prasad Jaiswal
Mithlesh
Premdas
Rajkumari Ratna Singh
Ku. Ratanjeet Pratap Narayan Singh
Salman Khursheed
Beni Prasad Verma
Kamal Kishor
Dr. Shafiqur Rahman Barq
Neeraj Shekhar
Dharmendra Yadav
Yashvir Singh
Kunwar Jitin Prasad
Gorakhnath
Tabassum Begum

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 3:
Low / No Impact Constituencies

State

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
Uttarakhand
Uttarakhand
Uttarakhand
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal

Amroha
Baghpat
Bulandshahr
Hathras
Firozabad
Mainpuri
Etah
Aonla
Pilibhit
Hardoi
Misrikh
Unnao
Mohanlalganj
Rae Bareli
Amethi
Sultanpur
Kannauj
Akbarpur
Jalaun
Hamirpur
Banda
Fatehpur
Kaushambi
Phulpur
Barabanki
Ambedkar Nagar
Kaiserganj
Shrawasti
Domariyaganj
Basti
Sant Kabir Nagar
Maharajganj
Bansgaon
Lalganj
Ghosi
Salempur
Machhlishahr
Ghazipur
Robertsganj
Tehri Garhwal
Garhwal
Nainital-Udhamsingh Nagar
Hardwar
Cooch Behar
Ranaghat
Bangaon
Joynagar
Ghatal

Devendra Nagpal
Ajit Singh
Kamlesh
Sarika Singh
Akhilesh Yadav
Mulayam Singh Yadav
Kalyan Singh R O Madholi
Menka Gandhi
Feroze Varun Gandhi
Usha Verma
Ashok Kumar Rawat
Annutandon
Sushila Saroj
Sonia Gandhi
Rahul Gandhi
Dr.Sanjay Singh
Akhilesh Yadav
Rajaram Pal
Ghansyam Anuragi
Vijay Bahadur Singh
R. K. Singh Patel
Rakesh Sachan
Shailendra Kumar
Kapil Muni Karwariya
P.L.Punia
Rakesh Pandey
Brijbhushan Sharan Singh
Vinay Kumar Alias Vinnu
Jagdambika Pal
Arvind Kumar Chaudhary
Bhisma Shankar Alias Kushal Tiwari
Harsh Vardhan
Kamlesh Paswan
Dr. Baliram
Dara Singh Chauhan
Ramashankar Rajbhar
Tufani Saroj
Radhey Mohan Singh
Pakauri Lal
Vijay Bahuguna
Satpal Maharaj
K.C. Singh Baba
Harish Rawat
Nripendra Nath Roy
Sucharu Ranjan Haldar
Gobinda Chandra Naskar
Dr. Tarun Mondal
Gurudas Dasgupta

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 3:
Low / No Impact Constituencies

State

Constituency

Winner in 2009

West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal

Alipurduars
Jalpaiguri
Darjeeling
Raiganj
Maldaha Uttar
Maldaha Dakshin
Jangipur
Baharampur
Murshidabad
Krishnanagar
Barrackpore
Dum Dum
Barasat
Basirhat
Mathurapur
Diamond Harbour
Jadavpur
Uluberia
Srerampur
Hooghly
Arambagh
Tamluk
Kanthi
Jhargram
Medinipur
Bankura
Bishnupur
Bardhaman Purba
Bolpur
Birbhum

Manohar Tirkey
Mahendra Kumar Roy
Jaswant Singh
Deepa Dasmunsi
Mausam Noor
Abu Hasem Khan Choudhury
Pranab Mukherjee
Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury
Abdul Mannan Hossain
Tapas Paul
Dinesh Trivedi
Sougata Ray
Kakali Ghosh Dastidar
Sk. Nurul Islam
Choudhury Mohan Jatua
Somendra Nath Mitra
Kabir Suman
Sultan Ahmed
Kalyan Banerjee
Dr. Ratna De (Nag)
Malik Sakti Mohan
Adhikari Suvendu
Adhikari Sisir Kumar
Pulin Bihari Baske
Prabodh Panda
Acharia Basudeb
Susmita Bauri
Anup Kumar Saha
Doctor Ram Chandra Dome
Satabdi Roy

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 4: State wise data

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Impact

Andaman & Nicobar Islands


Andaman & Nicobar Islands

Shri. Bishnu Pada Ray

No Impact

Asaduddin Owaisi
Daggubati Purandeswari
Lagadapati Raja Gopal
Rayapati Sambasiva Rao
Aruna Kumar Vundavalli
M.M.Pallamraju
Chinta Mohan
Mekapati Rajamohan Reddy
Ponnam Prabhakar
Modugula Venugopala Reddy
Naramalli Sivaprasad
Madhu Yaskhi Goud
Jhansi Lakshmi Botcha
Magunta Srinivasulu Reddy
K. Chandrasekhar Rao
Vijaya Shanthi .M
Rajaiah Siricilla
Kotla Jaya Surya Prakash Reddy
Kavuri Sambasiva Rao
Anantha Venkata Rami Reddy
Killi Krupa Rani
Konakalla Narayana Rao
Sarvey Sathyanarayana
Jaipal Reddy Sudini
Kishore Chandra Suryanarayana Deo Vyricherla
Rathod Ramesh
Dr.G.Vivekanand
Suresh Kumar Shetkar
Anjan Kumar Yadav M
Dr. Manda Jagannath
Gutha Sukender Reddy
Komatireddy Raj Gopal Reddy
P. Balram
Nama Nageswara Rao
Sabbam Hari
G.V.Harsha Kumar
Bapiraju Kanumuru
Panabaka Lakshmi
S.P.Y.Reddy
Kristappa Nimmala
Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy
Annayyagari Sai Prathap

High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact

Andhra Pradesh
Hyderabad
Visakhapatnam
Vijayawada
Guntur
Rajahmundry
Kakinada
Tirupati
Nellore
Karimnagar
Narasaraopet
Chittoor
Nizamabad
Vizianagaram
Ongole
Mahbubnagar
Medak
Warangal
Kurnool
Eluru
Anantapur
Srikakulam
Machilipatnam
Malkajgiri
Chelvella
Aruku
Adilabad
Peddapalle
Zahirabad
Secundrabad
Nagarkurnool
Nalgonda
Bhongir
Mahabubabad
Khammam
Anakapalli
Amalapuram
Narsapuram
Bapatla
Nandyal
Hindupur
Kadapa
Rajampet

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 4: State wise data

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Impact

Takam Sanjoy
Ninong Ering

High Impact
Low Impact

Paban Singh Ghatowar


Kabindra Purkayastha
Joseph Toppo
Ranee Narah
Ismail Hussain
Bijoya Chakravarty
Bijoy Krishna Handique
Lalit Mohan Suklabaidya
Biren Singh Engti
Dip Gogoi
Badruddin Ajmal
Sansuma Khunggur Bwiswmuthiary
Ramen Deka
Rajen Gohain

High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact

Ranjan Prasad Yadav


Shatrughan Sinha
Captain Jai Narayan Prasad Nishad
Jagada Nand Singh
Hari Manjhi
Om Prakash Yadav
Syed Shahnawaz Hussain
Nikhil Kumar Choudhary
Kirti Azad
Hukmadeo Narayan Yadav
Baidyanath Prasad Mahto
Aswamedh Devi
Mahabali Singh
Dr. Sanjay Jaiswal
Radha Mohan Singh
Rama Devi
Arjun Roy
Mangani Lal Mandal
Vishwa Mohan Kumar
Pradeep Kumar Singh
Mohammad Asrarul Haque
Uday Singh Alias Pappu Singh
Sharad Yadav
Raghuvansh Prasad Singh
Purnmasi Ram
Uma Shanaker Singh
Lalu Prasad

High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact

Arunachal Pradesh
Arunachal West
Arunachal East

Assam
Dibrugarh
Silchar
Tezpur
Lakhimpur
Barpeta
Gauhati
Jorhat
Karimganj
Autonomous District
Kaliabor
Dhubri
Kokrajhar
Mangaldoi
Nowgong

Bihar
Pataliputra
Patna Sahib
Muzaffarpur
Buxar
Gaya
Siwan
Bhagalpur
Katihar
Darbhanga
Madhubani
Valmiki Nagar
Ujiarpur
Karakat
Paschim Champaran
Purvi Champaran
Sheohar
Sitamarhi
Jhanjharpur
Supaul
Araria
Kishanganj
Purnia
Madhepura
Vaishali
Gopalganj
Maharajganj
Saran

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 4: State wise data

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Impact

Hajipur
Samastipur
Begusarai
Khagaria
Banka
Munger
Nalanda
Arrah
Sasaram
Jahanabad
Aurangabad
Nawada
Jamui

Ram Sundar Das


Maheshwar Hazari
Dr. Monazir Hassan
Dinesh Chandra Yadav
Digvijay Singh
Rajiv Ranjan Singh Alias Lalan Singh
Kaushalendra Kumar
Meena Singh
Meira Kumar
Jagdish Sharma
Sushil Kumar Singh
Bhola Singh
Bhudeo Choudhary

No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact

Pawan Kumar Bansal

High Impact

Ramesh Bais
Dilip Singh Judev
Charan Das Mahant
Saroj Pandey
Vishnu Deo Sai
Murarilal Singh
Shrimati Kamla Devi Patle
Madhusudan Yadav
Chandulal Sahu (Chandu Bhaiya)
Baliram Kashyap
Sohan Potai

High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact

Patel Natubhai Gomanbhai

High Impact

Lalubhai Patel

Medium impact

Shripad Yesso Naik


Cosme Francisco Caitano Sardinha

High Impact
High Impact

Shrimati Darshana Vikram Jardosh


Kuvarjibhai Mohanbhai Bavalia
Rajendrasinh Ghanshyamsinh Rana (Rajubhai Rana)
Ahir Vikrambhai Arjanbhai Madam
Dinsha Patel
Kishanbhai Vestabhai Patel
Chauhan Prabhatsinh Pratapsinh
Solanki Dinubhai Boghabhai

High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact

Chandigarh
Chandigarh

Chattisgarh
Raipur
Bilaspur
Korba
Durg
Raigarh
Sarguja
Janjgir-Champa
Rajnandgaon
Mahasamund
Bastar
Kanker

Dadra & Nagar Haveli


Dadar & Nagar Haveli

Daman & Diu


Daman & Diu

Goa
North Goa
South Goa

Gujarat
Surat
Rajkot
Bhavnagar
Jamnagar
Kheda
Valsad
Panchmahal
Junagadh

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 4: State wise data

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Impact

Bharuch
Banaskantha
Anand
Mahesana
Sabarkantha
Patan
Surendranagar
Ahmedabad East
Ahmedabad West
Amreli
Porbandar
Vadodara
Gandhinagar
Bardoli
Kachchh
Dahod
Chhota Udaipur
Navsari

Mansukhbhai Dhanjibhai Vasava


Gadhvi Mukeshkumar Bheiravdanji
Solanki Bharatbhai Madhavsinh
Patel Jayshreeben Kanubhai
Chauhan Mahendrasinh
Jagdish Thakor
Koli Patel Somabhai Gandalal
Harin Pathak
Dr. Solanki Kiritbhai Premajibhai
Kachhadia Naranbhai
Radadiya Vitthalbhai Hansrajbhai
Balkrishna Khanderao Shukla (Balu Shukla)
L.K.Advani
Chaudhari Tusharbhai Amrasinhbhai
Jat Poonamben Veljibhai
Dr. Prabha Kishor Taviad
Rathwa Ramsingbhai Patalbhai
C. R. Patil

High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact

Inderjit Singh
Avtar Singh Bhadana
Selja
Ashok Tanwar
Bhajan Lal S/O Kheraj
Naveen Jindal
Arvind Kumar Sharma
Shruti Choudhry
Deepender Singh
Jitender Singh

High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium Impact
No Impact

Virbhadra Singh
Dr. Rajan Sushant
Anurag Singh Thakur
Virender Kashyap

High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact

Farooq Abdullah
Madan Lal Sharma
Mirza Mehboob Beg
Ch. Lal Singh
Hassan Khan
Sharief Ud Din Shariq

High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
No Impact

Subodh Kant Sahay


Arjun Munda

High Impact
High Impact

Haryana
Gurgaon
Faridabad
Ambala
Sirsa
Hisar
Kurukshetra
Karnal
Bhiwani-Mahendragarh
Rohtak
Sonipat

Himachal Pradesh
Mandi
Kangra
Hamirpur
Shimla

Jammu & Kashmir


Srinagar
Jammu
Anantnag
Udhampur
Ladakh
Baramulla

Jharkhand
Ranchi
Jamshedpur

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 4: State wise data

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Impact

Dhanbad
Hazaribagh
Godda
Dumka
Singhbhum
Rajmahal
Chatra
Kodarma
Giridih
Khunti
Lohardaga
Palamau

Pashupati Nath Singh


Yashwant Sinha
Nishikant Dubey
Shibu Soren
Madhu Kora
Devidhan Besra
Inder Singh Namdhari
Babulal Marandi
Ravindra Kumar Pandey
Karia Munda
Sudarshan Bhagat
Kameshwar Baitha

High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
High impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact

Adagur H Vishwanath
Nalin Kumar Kateel
Mallikarjun Kharge
J. Shantha
G.M. Siddeswara
D.V.Sadananda Gowda
G.S. Basavaraj
Anantkumar Hegde
H.D.Kumaraswamy
D. B. Chandre Gowda
P. C. Mohan
Ananth Kumar
N.Dharam Singh
Gaddigoudar P.C.
Pralhad Joshi
R.Dhruvanarayana
Angadi Suresh Channabasappa
Ramesh Chandappa Jigajinagi
B.Y. Raghavendra
Pakkirappa.S.
N Cheluvaraya Swamy @ Swamygowda
Katti Ramesh Vishwanath
Shivaramagouda Shivanagouda
Udasi Shivkumar Chanabasappa
H. D. Devegowda
Janardhana Swamy
M.Veerappa Moily
K.H.Muniyappa

High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact

Shashi Tharoor
Prof. K V Thomas
M.B. Rajesh
Jose K.Mani (Karingozheckal)
P C Chacko

High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact

Karnataka
Mysore
Dakshina Kannada
Gulbarga
Bellary
Davanagere
Udupi Chikmagalur
Tumkur
Uttara Kannada
Bangalore Rural
Bangalore North
Bangalore Central
Bangalore South
Bidar
Bagalkot
Dharwad
Chamarajanagar
Belgaum
Bijapur
Shimoga
Raichur
Mandya
Chikkodi
Koppal
Haveri
Hassan
Chitradurga
Chikkballapur
Kolar

Kerala
Thiruvananthapuram
Ernakulam
Palakkad
Kottayam
Thrissur

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 4: State wise data

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Impact

Alappuzha
Kollam
Malappuram
Kozhikode
Kannur
Mavelikkara
Kasaragod
Vadakara
Alathur
Chalakudy
Pathanamthitta
Attingal
Wayanad
Ponnani
Idukki

K.C Venugopal
N.Peethambarakurup
E. Ahamed
M.K. Raghavan
K. Sudhakaran
Kodikkunnil Suresh
P Karunakaran
Mullappally Ramachandran
P.K Biju
K.P. Dhanapalan
Anto Antony Punnathaniyil
Adv. A Sampath
M.I. Shanavas
E.T. Muhammed Basheer
Adv. P.T Thomas

High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact

Hamdullah Sayeed

No Impact

Sumitra Mahajan (Tai)


Kailash Joshi
Yashodhara Raje Scindia
Rakesh Singh
Guddu Premchand
Deoraj Singh Patel
Ganesh Singh
Sajjan Singh Verma
Gajendra Singh Rajukhedi
Bhupendra Singh
Uday Pratap Singh
Arun Subhashchandra Yadav
K. D. Deshmukh
Makansingh Solanki (Babuji)
Kantilal Bhuria
Rajesh Nandini Singh
Meenakshi Natrajan
Narendra Singh Tomar
Ashok Argal
Jyotiraditya Madhavrao Scindia
Virendra Kumar
Shivraj Bhaiya
Jeetendra Singh Bundela
Govind Prasad Mishra
Basori Singh Masram
Kamal Nath
Sushma Swaraj
Narayansingh Amlabe

High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact

Lakshadweep
Lakshadweep

Madhya Pradesh
Indore
Bhopal
Gwalior
Jabalpur
Ujjain
Rewa
Satna
Dewas
Dhar
Sagar
Hoshangabad
Khandwa
Balaghat
Khargone
Ratlam
Shahdol
Mandsour
Morena
Bhind
Guna
Tikamgarh
Damoh
Khajuraho
Sidhi
Mandla
Chhindwara
Vidisha
Rajgarh

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 4: State wise data

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Impact

Betul

Jyoti Dhurve

No Impact

Kalmadi Suresh
Muttemwar Vilasrao Baburaoji
Chandrakant Khaire
Sameer Bhujbal
Dr.Sanjeev Ganesh Naik
Sadashivrao Dadoba Mandlik
Anand Prakash Paranjape
Awale Jaywant Gangaram
Sonawane Pratap Narayanrao
Pratik Prakashbapu Patil
Adsul Anandrao Vithoba
Danve Raosaheb Dadarao
Gandhi Dilipkumar Mansukhlal
Patil Padamsinha Bajirao
Ahir Hansaraj Gangaram
Sanjay Brijkishorlal Nirupam
Ad.Kamat Gurudas Vasant
Sanjay Dina Patil
Dutt Priya Sunil
Eknath M. Gaikwad
Deora Milind Murli
Bhavana Gawali (Patil)
Adv. Dudhgaonkar Ganeshrao Nagorao
Datta Meghe
Shinde Sushilkumar Sambhajirao
Khatgaonkar Patil Bhaskarrao Bapurao
Dhotre Sanjay Shamrao
A.T. Nana Patil
Dr.Nilesh Narayan Rane
Taware Suresh Kashinath
Jadhav Baliram Sukur
Babar Gajanan Dharmshi
Gavit Manikrao Hodlya
Haribhau Madhav Jawale
Jadhav Prataprao Ganpatrao
Wasnik Mukul Balkrishna
Patel Praful Manoharbhai
Kowase Marotrao Sainuji
Subhash Bapurao Wankhede
Chavan Harishchandra Deoram
Anant Geete
Supriya Sule
Adhalrao Shivaji Dattatray
Wakchaure Bhausaheb Rajaram
Munde Gopinathrao Pandurang

High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact

Maharashtra
Pune
Nagpur
Aurangabad
Nashik
Thane
Kolhapur
Kalyan
Latur
Dhule
Sangli
Amravati
Jalna
Ahmadnagar
Osmanabad
Chandrapur
Mumbai North
Mumbai North West
Mumbai North East
Mumbai North Central
Mumbai South Central
Mumbai South
Yavatmal-Washim
Parbhani
Wardha
Solapur
Nanded
Akola
Jalgaon
Ratnagiri - Sindhudurg
Bhiwandi
Palghar
Maval
Nandurbar
Raver
Buldhana
Ramtek
Bhandara - Gondiya
Gadchiroli-Chimur
Hingoli
Dindori
Raigad
Baramati
Shirur
Shirdi
Beed

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 4: State wise data

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Impact

Madha
Satara
Hatkanangle

Pawar Sharadchandra Govindrao


Bhonsle Shrimant Chh. Udyanraje Pratapsinhmaharaj
Shetti Raju Alias Devappa Anna

No Impact
No Impact
No Impact

Dr. Thokchom Meinya


Thangso Baite

No Impact
No Impact

Vincent H Pala
Agatha K. Sangma

Medium impact
Medium impact

C.L.Ruala

Medium impact

C.M. Chang

No Impact

Kapil Sibal
Jai Prakash Agarwal
Sandeep Dikshit
Ajay Makan
Krishna Tirath
Mahabal Mishra
Ramesh Kumar

High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact

Amarnath Pradhan
Bhartruhari Mahtab
Prasanna Kumar Patasani
Sidhant Mohapatra
Srikant Kumar Jena
Hemanand Biswal
Sanjay Bhoi
Yashbant Narayan Singh Laguri
Laxman Tudu
Arjun Charan Sethi
Mohan Jena
Tathagata Satpathy
Kalikesh Narayan Singh Deo
Bhakta Charan Das
Pradeep Kumar Majhi
Rudramadhab Ray
Baijayant Panda
Bibhu Prasad Tarai
Pinaki Misra

High Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact

Manipur
Inner Manipur
Outer Manipur

Meghalaya
Shillong
Tura

Mizoram
Mizoram

Nagaland
Nagaland

NCT OF Delhi
Chandni Chowk
North East Delhi
East Delhi
New Delhi
North West Delhi
West Delhi
South Delhi

Orissa
Sambalpur
Cuttack
Bhubaneswar
Berhampur
Balasore
Sundargarh
Bargarh
Keonjhar
Mayurbhanj
Bhadrak
Jajpur
Dhenkanal
Bolangir
Kalahandi
Nabarangpur
Kandhamal
Kendrapara
Jagatsinghpur
Puri

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 4: State wise data

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Impact

Aska
Koraput

Nityananda Pradhan
Jayaram Pangi

No Impact
No Impact

Narayanasamy

Medium impact

Manish Tewari
Navjot Singh Sidhu
Santosh Chowdhary
Preneet Kaur
Partap Singh Bajwa
Paramjit Kaur Gulshan
Sukhdev Singh
Vijay Inder Singla
Sher Singh Ghubaya
Dr. Rattan Singh Ajnala
Ravneet Singh
Mohinder Singh Kaypee
Harsimrat Kaur Badal

High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact

Mahesh Joshi
Chandresh Kumari
Ijyaraj Singh
Arjun Ram Meghwal
Namo Narain
Dr. C. P. Joshi
Bharat Ram Meghwal
Mahadev Singh
Sheesh Ram Ola
(Dr.)Girija Vyas
Raghuvir Singh Meena
Sachin Pilot
Ram Singh Kaswan
Lal Chand Kataria
Jitendra Singh
Ratan Singh
Khiladi Lal Bairwa
Kirodi Lal
Dr. Jyoti Mirdha
Badri Ram Jakhar
Harish Choudhary
Devji Patel
Tarachand Bhagora
Gopal Singh
Dushyant Singh

High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact

Puducherry
Puducherry

Punjab
Ludhiana
Amritsar
Hoshiarpur
Patiala
Gurdaspur
Faridkot
Fatehgarh Sahib
Sangrur
Ferozpur
Khadoor Sahib
Anandpur Sahib
Jalandhar
Bathinda

Rajasthan
Jaipur
Jodhpur
Kota
Bikaner
Tonk-Sawai Madhopur
Bhilwara
Ganganagar
Sikar
Jhunjhunu
Chittorgarh
Udaipur
Ajmer
Churu
Jaipur Rural
Alwar
Bharatpur
Karauli-Dholpur
Dausa
Nagaur
Pali
Barmer
Jalore
Banswara
Rajsamand
Jhalawar-Baran

www.esocialsciences.com

Appendix 4: State wise data

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Impact

Prem Das Rai

No Impact

Natarajan.P.R.
Semmalai S
Ramasubbu S
Ganeshamurthi.A.
Alagiri M.K
Anandan M
Manicka Tagore
Viswanathan.P
Chidambaram P
Elangovan T.K.S
Rajendran C
Dayanidhi Maran
Palanimanickam.S.S
Chitthan N S V
Jeyadurai.S.R
Gandhiselvan.S
Aaron Rashid.J.M
Abdul Rahman
Helen Davidson J
Alagiri S
Kumar.P
Thambidurai.M
Krishnasswamy M
Sankar Adhi
Sivasami C
Venugopal.P
Baalu T R
Jagathrakshakan
Sugavanam. E.G.
Thamaraiselvan. R
Venugopal.D
Raja A
Sugumar.K
Napoleon,D.
Thirumaavalavan, Thol
Maniyan O.S.
Vijayan A K S
Sivakumar @ J.K. Ritheesh. K
Lingam P

High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact

Khagen Das
Baju Ban Riyan

Low Impact
No Impact

Sikkim
Sikkim

Tamil Nadu
Coimbatore
Salem
Tirunelveli
Erode
Madurai
Viluppuram
Virudhunagar
Kancheepuram
Sivaganga
Chennai North
Chennai South
Chennai Central
Thanjavur
Dindigul
Thoothukkudi
Namakkal
Theni
Vellore
Kanniyakumari
Cuddalore
Tiruchirappalli
Karur
Arani
Kallakurichi
Tiruppur
Thiruvallur
Sriperumbudur
Arakkonam
Krishnagiri
Dharmapuri
Tiruvannamalai
Nilgiris
Pollachi
Perambalur
Chidambaram
Mayiladuthurai
Nagapattinam
Ramanathapuram
Tenkasi

Tripura
Tripura West
Tripura East

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Appendix 4: State wise data

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Impact

Lal Ji Tandon
Sri Prakash Jaiswal
Surendra Singh Nagar
Kunwar Rewati Raman Singh Alias Mani Ji
Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi
Dr. Ramshankar
Rajnath Singh
Rajendra Agarwal
Praveen Singh Aron
Raj Kumari Chauhan
Mohammed Azharuddin
Kadir Rana
Ramkishun
Zafar Ali Naqvi
Jayant Chaudhary
Dhananjay Singh
Gorakh Prasad Jaiswal
Mithlesh
Premdas
Rajkumari Ratna Singh
Ku. Ratanjeet Pratap Narayan Singh
Salman Khursheed
Beni Prasad Verma
Kamal Kishor
Dr. Shafiqur Rahman Barq
Neeraj Shekhar
Dharmendra Yadav
Adityanath
Pradeep Kumar Jain (Aditya)
Jagdish Singh Rana
Jaya Prada Nahata
Ramakant Yadav
Kaisar Jahan
Nirmal Khatri
Sanjay Singh Chauhan
Seema Upadhyay
Bal Kumar Patel
Yashvir Singh
Kunwar Jitin Prasad
Gorakhnath
Tabassum Begum
Devendra Nagpal
Ajit Singh
Kamlesh
Sarika Singh
Akhilesh Yadav
Mulayam Singh Yadav

High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact

Uttar Pradesh
Lucknow
Kanpur
Gautam Buddh Nagar
Allahabad
Varanasi
Agra
Ghaziabad
Meerut
Bareilly
Aligarh
Moradabad
Muzaffarnagar
Chandauli
Kheri
Mathura
Jaunpur
Deoria
Shahjahanpur
Etawah
Pratapgarh
Kushi Nagar
Farrukhabad
Gonda
Bahraich
Sambhal
Ballia
Badaun
Gorakhpur
Jhansi
Saharanpur
Rampur
Azamgarh
Sitapur
Faizabad
Bijnor
Fatehpur Sikri
Mirzapur
Nagina
Dhaurahra
Bhadohi
Kairana
Amroha
Baghpat
Bulandshahr
Hathras
Firozabad
Mainpuri

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Appendix 4: State wise data

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Impact

Etah
Aonla
Pilibhit
Hardoi
Misrikh
Unnao
Mohanlalganj
Rae Bareli
Amethi
Sultanpur
Kannauj
Akbarpur
Jalaun
Hamirpur
Banda
Fatehpur
Kaushambi
Phulpur
Barabanki
Ambedkar Nagar
Kaiserganj
Shrawasti
Domariyaganj
Basti
Sant Kabir Nagar
Maharajganj
Bansgaon
Lalganj
Ghosi
Salempur
Machhlishahr
Ghazipur
Robertsganj

Kalyan Singh R O Madholi


Menka Gandhi
Feroze Varun Gandhi
Usha Verma
Ashok Kumar Rawat
Annutandon
Sushila Saroj
Sonia Gandhi
Rahul Gandhi
Dr.Sanjay Singh
Akhilesh Yadav
Rajaram Pal
Ghansyam Anuragi
Vijay Bahadur Singh
R. K. Singh Patel
Rakesh Sachan
Shailendra Kumar
Kapil Muni Karwariya
P.L.Punia
Rakesh Pandey
Brijbhushan Sharan Singh
Vinay Kumar Alias Vinnu
Jagdambika Pal
Arvind Kumar Chaudhary
Bhisma Shankar Alias Kushal Tiwari
Harsh Vardhan
Kamlesh Paswan
Dr. Baliram
Dara Singh Chauhan
Ramashankar Rajbhar
Tufani Saroj
Radhey Mohan Singh
Pakauri Lal

No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact

Pradeep Tamta
Vijay Bahuguna
Satpal Maharaj
K.C. Singh Baba
Harish Rawat

High Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact

Ambica Banerjee
Prasanta Kumar Majumdar
Mamata Banerjee
Sudip Bandyopadhyay
Nripendra Nath Roy
Sk. Saidul Haque
Bansa Gopal Chowdhury

High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
High Impact
Low Impact
Medium impact
Medium impact

Uttarakhand
Almora
Tehri Garhwal
Garhwal
Nainital-Udhamsingh Nagar
Hardwar

West Bengal
Howrah
Balurghat
Kolkata Dakshin
Kolkata Uttar
Cooch Behar
Burdwan - Durgapur
Asansol

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Appendix 4: State wise data

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Impact

Purulia
Ranaghat
Bangaon
Joynagar
Ghatal
Alipurduars
Jalpaiguri
Darjeeling
Raiganj
Maldaha Uttar
Maldaha Dakshin
Jangipur
Baharampur
Murshidabad
Krishnanagar
Barrackpore
Dum Dum
Barasat
Basirhat
Mathurapur
Diamond Harbour
Jadavpur
Uluberia
Srerampur
Hooghly
Arambagh
Tamluk
Kanthi
Jhargram
Medinipur
Bankura
Bishnupur
Bardhaman Purba
Bolpur
Birbhum

Narahari Mahato
Sucharu Ranjan Haldar
Gobinda Chandra Naskar
Dr. Tarun Mondal
Gurudas Dasgupta
Manohar Tirkey
Mahendra Kumar Roy
Jaswant Singh
Deepa Dasmunsi
Mausam Noor
Abu Hasem Khan Choudhury
Pranab Mukherjee
Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury
Abdul Mannan Hossain
Tapas Paul
Dinesh Trivedi
Sougata Ray
Kakali Ghosh Dastidar
Sk. Nurul Islam
Choudhury Mohan Jatua
Somendra Nath Mitra
Kabir Suman
Sultan Ahmed
Kalyan Banerjee
Dr. Ratna De (Nag)
Malik Sakti Mohan
Adhikari Suvendu
Adhikari Sisir Kumar
Pulin Bihari Baske
Prabodh Panda
Acharia Basudeb
Susmita Bauri
Anup Kumar Saha
Doctor Ram Chandra Dome
Satabdi Roy

Medium impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact
No Impact

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Appendix 5: Party wise impact


PARTY
INC
BJP
SP
BSP
JD(U)
AITC
DMK
CPM
BJD
SHS
ADMK
NCP
TDP
RLD
CPI
RJD
SAD
JD(S)
JKN
AIFB
JMM
MUL
RSP
TRS
AGP
AIMIM
AUDF
BOPF
BVA
HJCBL
JVM
KEC(M)
MDMK
NPF
SDF
SWP
VCK

HIGH
75
44
2
4
2
3
3
2
3
3
4
2

IMPACT LEVEL
MEDIUM
LOW
28
18
2
3

27
11
4
3

2
3
2

3
1
1
2

2
1
1
1

1
1
2

1
1

1
1

1
1

NO
76
43
15
11
18
16
10
10
11
6
4
4
3
3
4
3
2
1
1
1
1
1

2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

TOTAL
206
116
23
21
20
19
18
16
14
11
9
9
6
5
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

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used in this study only for reference representation.
This study has been carried out by the IRIS Knowledge Foundation based on data available publicly on the Facebook website by
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form has been obtained from any other group, corporate, political or otherwise.
The data on Facebook keeps changing from time to time and hence the inferences may also vary. No efforts have been spared to
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An updated version of the study will be produced closer to the date of the elections.
The team that carried out this study includes Parag Pilankar, Nitasha Rana, Mayur Narvekar, under the guidance of S
Swaminathan. The Foundation is grateful to Dr. S. Chandrasekhar, Associate Professor, IGIDR and Dr. Subho Ray, President, IAMAI
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study. Such errors, if any, are regretted.
Please feel free to write to the Foundation with your comments about the study. All comments may be forwarded to
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