CHAPTER 3 TRAFFIC SURVEY AND FORECAST

CHAPTER 3 TRAFFIC SURVEY AND FORECAST

There are approximate traffic forecast, direct demand model and 4 step approach
method in traffic forecast. The Consultant forecasted the future traffic with past
trend extension method of approximate traffic forecast because the project area
is small (only one intersection), project period is short and the survey data of OD
(Origin-Destination) for each traffic zones was insufficient. The traffic forecast
for each direction on the most concentrated traffic time of 2031 was forecasted
with present condition.

3.1 Traffic Forecasting Method

There are approximate traffic forecast, direct demand model and 4 step approach
method in traffic forecast. Approximate traffic forecast is used for the small area
or when the collect of data is difficult and it has past trend extension method and
demand flexibility method. Direct demand model and 4 step approach method
are used for accurate forecast in large scaled area.
The project area is small (only one intersection) and the survey data of traffic
pattern and OD (Origin-Destination) for each traffic zone was insufficient, so the
Consultant applied future traffic with past trend extension method of
approximate traffic forecast.
Based on the colleting result of the traffic demand forecast case for UB city, 4
step approach method was used in Detailed engineering design of road from
Yarmag bridge to Bayanzurh in Ulaanbaatar city", so reviewed it first.

3.1.1 Review the demand in Detailed engineering design of road from Yarmag
bridge to Bayanzurh in Ulaanbaatar city"

3-1

CHAPTER 3 TRAFFIC SURVEY AND FORECAST

4 step approach method dividing the forecasted OD (Origin-Destination) volume
after organizing the road network under the reflection of the social-economic
index forecast and related plans was applied.

- Present O/D settlement: Settlement by the calibration process which repeatedly

distributes the O/D which was forecasted based on the detailed regional
population data on the present road network.
- Network settlement: The feasible planned road network on present road
network was reflected.
- Future O/D settlement: Settlement by calibration after the multiply of the
growth rate on the already settled present O/D traffic volume.
<Figure 3-1> 4 step approach method

3-2

CHAPTER 3 TRAFFIC SURVEY AND FORECAST

Ulaanbaatar city is organized with six Districts such as Sukhbaatar, Khan-Uul,
Bayangol, Bayanzurkh, Songino Khairkhan and Chingeltei. Each Dirstict is
organized 14~25 Khoroo, and there are totally 120 Khorooes. East 4 road
intersection which is the project area is included in the Bayanzurkh District.

<Table 3-1> UB Districts in Study Area

S. No.

Name of District

No. of Blocks (Khoroos)

Bayangol

20

Chingeltei

19

Sukhbaatar

18

Bayanzurkh

24

Khan Uul

14

Songino Khairkhan

25

Total
Source: Data from Ulaanbaatar city government

<Figure 3-2> Section map of traffic zone

3-3

120

CHAPTER 3 TRAFFIC SURVEY AND FORECAST

Based on the review in the allocated traffic volume of Detailed engineering design

of road from Yarmag bridge to Bayanzurh in Ulaanbaatar city", there is big

difference in the project route with the OD and allocated traffic volume to
downtown because the project route is passing through the southern outer area
of UB city. The traffic volume of south-north direction of East 4 Road
Intersection in 2031 (Target year) was forecasted as below 1,000 vehicles per
hour. So, the use of the 4 step approach method and traffic data of Detailed
engineering design of road from Yarmag bridge to Bayanzurh in Ulaanbaatar
city" is insufficient.

3.1.2 Traffic forecast using past trend extension method

Traffic volume increasing rate was established as 1.35% after review of the past
traffic survey data of UB city and the bus terminal traffic data of The Study on
UB city Master Plan and Urban Development Program (JICA, 2006) and the
traffic data which the Consultant surveyed for the same area at 2008 was also
reviewed.

3.2 Present condition of traffic

The present traffic conditions such as geometric structure, traffic volume,
walkers volume, traffic sign time, etc were investigated and analyzed and were
used as the basic data for alternative design establishment and selection.
3.2.1 Traffic Survey
Traffic surveys of traffic index such the number of lanes, lane operation, traffic
sign operation, etc to check the accurate traffic conditions of East 4 road
intersection have been implemented Oct. 2008.
<Table 3-2> Traffic Survey Item
3-4

CHAPTER 3 TRAFFIC SURVEY AND FORECAST

Item

Contents

Geometry

Number of Lanes, lane operation, Road width

Traffic Volume

The vehicle types were classified as five (motor car, micro bus,
general bus, small truck and large truck) and the traffic volume
by time and direction was investigated.

Pedestrian Volume
Signal Operation

Traffic volume of one hour on each fifteen minute from each

direction
Traffic signal phase, and cycle length and location of traffic
signal

<Figure 3-3> Survey Site

3.2.2 Geometry
The Consultant investigated the road alignment, number of lanes and width of
each intersection approach, width of sidewalk and location of the bus stop to
check the traffic features of East 4 roads intersection.

<Figure 3-4> Unsignalized Intersection of Westbound Approach

3-5

CHAPTER 3 TRAFFIC SURVEY AND FORECAST

<Figure 3-5> Bus Stop and Pedestrian Cross at Eastbound Approach

3-6

CHAPTER 3 TRAFFIC SURVEY AND FORECAST

<Figure 3-6> Geometry

3-7

CHAPTER 3 TRAFFIC SURVEY AND FORECAST

3.2.3 Traffic Volume
1) Total volume on the intersection
Based on the traffic survey on the East 4 roads intersection for 14 hours, it
was found that the total volume on the intersection was increased quickly
after 08:00 and continued until after 20:00. The most concentrated traffic jam
time was from 09:00 to 10:00 and the traffic volume was 6,239 pcu/hr. The
traffic rates by vehicle type were investigated to be motor car 77%, bus 16%
and truck 7%.
<Figure 3-7> Intersection Hourly Volume
7,000
6,000

Vehicles(pcu/hr)

5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000

19-20

18-19

17-18

16-17

15-16

14-15

13-14

12-13

11-12

10-11

9-10

8-9

7-8

6-7

Time

<Figure 3-8> Volume Ratio by Vehicle Classification

GeneralBUS
3%

Truck
7%

GeneralBUS
4%

MicroBUS
13%

Truck
5%

MicroBUS
18%

Auto
73%

Auto
77%

<14-hrs Volume>
3-8

<Peak Hour Volume>

CHAPTER 3 TRAFFIC SURVEY AND FORECAST

2) Traffic volume by direction
The traffic volume by direction from 09:00 to 10:00 which was the most
concentrated traffic jam time among 14 hours of survey is as below.
<Figure 3-9> Traffic volume by each direction
14-hrs Volume

Peak Hour Volume

<Figure 3-10> Peak Hour Traffic volume and vehicle type rate for each
approach
2000
1800

Volume(veh/hr)

1600
1400
1200
Truck
GeneralBUS
MicroBUS
Auto

1000
800
600
400
200
0

SB

WB

NB

Approach

3-9

EB

CHAPTER 3 TRAFFIC SURVEY AND FORECAST

3) Delay and LOS analysis
The result of the calculation for the delay on the intersection by Synchro is
116.8sec/veh, LOS F. The service level for all approach to the intersection is F and
the delay from all approach was reported, and the delay especially occurred mainly
on left turn traffic system.
The delay will be relieved due to the signal time increase according to the
installment of overpass on the left turn of east-west direction. The left turn lane
increase is needed for the left turn of south-north direction.
<Table 3-3> Analysis result of intersection traffic movement
Approach

East Bound

West Bound

North Bound

South Bound

3-10

Movement

Volume
(pcu/hr)

Movement
Delay
(sec/veh)

Left Turn

265

246.4

Through

865

89.9

Right Turn

288

9.2

Left Turn

495

212.0

Through

997

149.6

Right Turn

415

15.8

Left Turn

393

152.4

Through

765

71.9

Right Turn

237

20.2

Left Turn

428

192.4

Through

907

129.2

Right Turn

184

17.5

Approach
Delay
(sec/veh),
LOS

Intersection
Delay
(sec/veh),
LOS

102.8
(F)

136.7
(F)
116.8
(F)
85.8
(F)

133.5
(F)

CHAPTER 3 TRAFFIC SURVEY AND FORECAST

3.2.4 Pedestrian Volume
The Consultant surveyed the volume of pedestrians crossing the intersection and
the volume of pedestrians on the sidewalk of Peace Avenue. LOS of Pedestrian
Crossing is C (moderate condition) and LOS of Sidewalk is A (good
condition).
<Figure 3-11> Survey points for pedestrian volume

<Table 3-4> Pedestrian volume and LOS

Pedestrian Volume
(person/15min)

Location

Pedestrian
Crossing

Effective Green Time Pedestrian Delay

for Pedestrian (sec)
(sec/person)

LOS

148

34

26.3

19

31

28.3

25

34

26.3

25

31

28.3

Pedestrian Volume
(person/15min)

Effective Length
of Sidewalk(m)

Flow Rate
(person/min/m)

LOS

179

2.0

6.0

23

2.0

0.8

157

2.0

5.2

27

2.0

0.9

Location

Sidewalk

3-11

CHAPTER 3 TRAFFIC SURVEY AND FORECAST

3.2.5 Traffic Signal Operation

The signal for east 4 road intersection is operating as pre-timed signal on 110
second cycle length. The design review of signal time connected with ITS will
be needed because there is the ITS plan to change the signal controller unit for
the intersection which is under examination of the design proposal.
<Figure 3-12> Traffic signal location

4
2

2
2

2
4

2
2
3

2
4

2
2
2

4
3

<Table 3-5> Signal Operation

Phase and Signal Time
1

15(3)

3-12

31(3)

24(3)

28(3)

Signal Operation
Cycle

110
(sec)

Phase Scheme : Dual Ring

Phase Sequence : Leading Left Turn
Cycle Length : 110 sec
Number of Phases : 4
Overlap Phase : No

CHAPTER 3 TRAFFIC SURVEY AND FORECAST

3.3 Traffic forecast of the intersection in 2031

Daily volume of the East 4 road intersection of UB city is forecasted as 101,168
pcu/14hrs in 2031 which is the target year. The forecasted Peak
Hour(09:00~10:00) volume is converted as directional volume based on the
traffic rate of survey of Oct. 2008.

<Table 3-6> Forecasted hourly traffic volume in 2031

Time

Volume Ratio

2031 Hourly Volume

(pcu/hr)

06:00~07:00

714

0.0096

972

07:00~08:00

2,939

0.0396

4,001

08:00~09:00

5,767

0.0776

7,851

09:00~10:00

6,239

0.0840

8,494

10:00~11:00

6,136

0.0826

8,354

11:00~12:00

6,118

0.0823

8,329

12:00~13:00

6,172

0.0831

8,403

13:00~14:00

5,995

0.0807

8,162

14:00~15:00

5,860

0.0789

7,978

15:00~16:00

5,865

0.0789

7,985

16:00~17:00

5,811

0.0782

7,911

17:00~18:00

5,685

0.0765

7,740

18:00~19:00

5,439

0.0732

7,405

19:00~20:00

5,570

0.0750

7,583

74,310

1.0000

101,168

Total

3-13

2008 Hourly Volume

(pcu/hr)

CHAPTER 3 TRAFFIC SURVEY AND FORECAST

The allocated traffic volume is calculated for each movement of approach to the
intersection by traffic forecast. The present traffic rate is applied for the traffic
rate of the movement. The peak hour is settled as 09:00~10:00 for A.M. based
on present traffic volume.

<Table 3-7> Intersection Volume in 2031

Movement

SB

WB

NB

EB

Total

AM Peak Hour(09:00~10:00)
Volume
(pcu/hr)

RT

251

0.0296

TH

1,235

0.1454

LT

583

0.0686

RT

565

0.0665

TH

1,356

0.1596

LT

674

0.0794

RT

323

0.0380

TH

1,041

0.1226

LT

535

0.0630

RT

392

0.0462

TH

1,178

0.1387

LT

361

0.0425

8,494

1.0000

NB : North Bound, SB : South Bound, EB : East Bound, WB : West Bound

LT : Left Turn, TH : Through, RT : Right Turn

3-14

Ratio