MARKETBEAT

RETAIL SNAPSHOT
THE NETHERLANDS

Q4 2014

A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication

Fiscal consolidation continues to limit GDP

growth, with the economy estimated to
have expanded by a modest 0.7% in 2014.
Domestic demand is picking up, although
progress is being hampered by low real
income growth and difficulties in obtaining credit. On a positive
note, the unemployment rate fell to 8% in November, down from
8.6% at the start of 2014.

OCCUPIER FOCUS

Some sectors within the retail market are suffering, resulting in

some bankruptcies for larger and small-scaled retailers.
Nevertheless, the occupational market recorded several notable
transactions from expanding international retailers in Q4, with
demand steadily improving across all prime sectors. The prime
high street and luxury retail segments are performing particularly
well, with new entrants mainly targeting opportunities in
Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague and Utrecht. There is also
good appetite from Southern European operators, who are
targeting space in prime locations in various top-20 cities.
Overall availability has been rising steadily across the country,
with the vacancy rate now around 7%. There are some
differences between regions and sub-sectors, with retail
warehouses, for example, seeing higher vacancy rates than high
streets. Furthermore, district shopping centres are facing high
competition from inner city retail destinations, with these central
locations most favoured by consumers due to shopping
experience, leisure and facilities such as restaurants and cafs.

INVESTMENT FOCUS

OUTLOOK

The outlook for the retail sector is relatively positive, with prime
locations expected to attract high levels of occupational and
investment demand in 2015. Confidence surveys and other shortterm indicators suggest that the Dutch economy is moving into a
stronger recovery phase, with all components of GDP, except
the public sector, contributing to growth.

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Prime Rents:

Some stabilisation in prime rents expected,

with declines in second tier locations.

Prime Yields:

No significant changes expected.

Supply:

Tighter supply in core locations, with supply

rising further in secondary markets.

Demand:

Occupational and investment demand to

remain stable over the short term.

PRIME RETAIL RENTS DECEMBER 2014

HIGH STREET SHOPS
Amsterdam

SQ.M/YR
2,900

US$
SQ.FT/YR
326

Rotterdam

1,700

191

-5.6

0.0

The Hague

1,350

152

-6.9

-0.4

Utrecht

1,600

180

0.0

2.0

Maastricht

1,600

180

0.0

0.0

Eindhoven
RETAIL PARKS

1,300

SQ.M/YR
145

146
US$
SQ.FT/YR
16.3

-10.3

Amsterdam

GROWTH %
1YR 5YR CAGR
0.0
4.7

-1.5
GROWTH %
1YR 5YR CAGR
7.4
1.4

PRIME RETAIL YIELDS DECEMBER 2014

HIGH STREET SHOPS
(FIGURES ARE GROSS, %)

CURRENT
QUARTER
4.10

LAST
QUARTER
4.10

LAST
YEAR
4.50

HIGH
5.25

10 YEAR
LOW
4.00

Rotterdam

4.75

4.75

5.00

5.70

4.75

The Hague

5.00

5.00

5.10

6.00

4.75

Utrecht

5.00

5.00

5.10

6.00

4.75

Maastricht

5.00

5.00

5.10

5.65

4.75

5.00
CURRENT
QUARTER
7.60

5.00
LAST
QUARTER
7.60

5.10
LAST
YEAR
7.60

6.25

4.75
10 YEAR
LOW
6.00

Amsterdam

Eindhoven
RETAIL PARKS
(FIGURES ARE GROSS, %)
Amsterdam

HIGH
7.75

With respect to the yield data provided, in light of the lack of recent comparable market evidence in many areas of
Europe and the changing nature of the market and the costs implicit in any transaction, such as financing, these are very
much a guide only to indicate the approximate trend and direction of prime initial yield levels and should not be used
as a comparable for any particular property or transaction without regard to the specifics of the property.

RECENT PERFORMANCE
6.00%

25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%

5.50%
5.00%
4.50%
4.00%
3.50%
3.00%
Dec-04

Dec-06

Yield - Prime
Rental Growth - Prime

Dec-08

Dec-10

Dec-12

Rental growth (y/y)

Total retail investment volumes were 545 mn in Q4, bringing

the total volumes for 2014 to 1.5 bn significantly higher than
the annual volume of 490 mn for 2013. Activity was boosted by
several large shopping centre portfolio transactions, with good
demand being seen from core and opportunistic investors. Prime
yields were unchanged across all retail sub-sectors over the
quarter. Indeed, volumes would have been higher but for the lack
of large prime opportunities on the market, with the majority of
recent deals mainly smaller sub-10 million transactions.

MARKET OUTLOOK

Yields

OVERVIEW

Dec-14

Yield - Country Average

Rental Growth - Country Average

Source: Cushman & Wakefield

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