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Flying on
demand
2014 2033
003
Introduction
2014, MARKED THE CENTENARY OF COMMERCIAL FLIGHT
OPERATIONS, with the first scheduled flight taking off in January
1914. This airboat service carried passengers, one-by-one, between St
Petersburg and Tampa in Florida. It took 23 minutes and cost five dollars
one way, the equivalent of $116 in 2014 dollars. The same journey took
two hours by boat, 4-12 hours by train or up to 20 hours by road. The
economic benefits of air transport were clear. Thomas Benoist, the
builder of the airboats, said, Someday, people will be crossing oceans
on airliners like they do on steamships today. As a twenty-year forecast
it was not far off the mark! Today, the global airline industry performs
around 32 million commercial flights a year, transporting 3 billion
passengers and 50 million tonnes of freight. Tampa International Airport
handled 17 million passengers in 2013, an incredible evolution in the
relatively short time since this first commercial air service. New, emerging
markets continue to drive impressive growth, their airlines cutting journey
times massively for millions of new travelers.
In the year that has passed since our last forecast, aviation has
continued to deliver growth and prosperity both locally and globally.
ATAG (the Air Transport Action Group) recently assessed the industrys
global economic impact at $2.4 trillion annually, providing employment
for nearly 60 million people. Affordable air transport is not purely a
consequence of economic growth but is one of its great enablers.
The benefits are also clear for millions of passengers flying every day,
with aviation playing a key role in lives which are increasingly driven
by a global society. In our forecast we take the very latest economic
and market data and apply a forecasting methodology developed and
refined over decades to give us an insight into future developments. We
challenge our analysts to consider how factors such as demographics,
trade and tourism flows, oil price, environmental issues and competition
will define our future industry and in turn this helps us define our forecast.
We chose the title Flying on Demand for this years Global Market
Forecast to reflect the fact that for an increasing number of people,
flying is no longer a dream but an expectation. An expectation of the
availability of air transport, an expectation of a satisfying passenger
experience and an expectation of what constitutes value for money.
New and evolving technologies continue to make travel simpler, from the
booking process to the airport experience and of course, on the aircraft
itself. In mature markets flying is now taken for granted, which is not the
case for forecasters and planners helping to ensure that air transport can
continue to fulfil its potential.
We hope that you find the 2014 Global Market Forecast informative and
useful. We seek to improve our analyses continually, and your questions,
challenges and suggestions help us in that aim. Dont forget you can
download our App in several formats from tablet to smartphone. It
complements the forecast and includes more interactive information than
ever before.
As usual this is best read on a long flight. Enjoy !
004
005
01
Executive summary
P.007
Demand by region
P.053
02
Asia-Pacific P.054
Europe P.058
North America P.062
Middle East P.066
Latin America & Caribbean P.070
CIS P.074
Africa P.078
03
04
05
Traffic forecast
06
P.029
Summary
& methodology
Demand for
passenger aircraft
P.041
P.89
07
006
01
Executive
summary
4.7
2014-2033
30,555
% CAGR*
4.5
New freighters
% CAGR
2014-2033
803
Passenger fleet
2014
16,855
2033
34,818
+17,963
2014-2033
31,358
Freighter fleet
2014
1,605
009
2033
2,645
+1,040
2013-2023 2023-2033
2013-2033
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2033
2028
2023
2018
2013
2008
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
0
1973
008
010
Traffic
>
double
Pax fleet
>
double
Demand
for 31,358
New pax
& freight
aircraft
Value
of demand
$4.6 trillion
2014 - 2033
NEW DELIVERIES
31,358
Source: Airbus
24,000
37,463
20,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
+3.8%
16,000
19,003
Growth
12,000
per annum
New
aircraft
31,358
18,460
15,000
8,000
4,000
12,355
Replaced
10,000
5,000
6,105
Stay in service
& converted
Beginning 2014
Passenger aircraft 100 seats, Freighter aircraft 10 tonnes
2033
Single-aisle
Small
twin-aisle
Intermediate
twin-aisle
Very Large
Aircraft
% units
70%
16%
9%
5%
% value
45%
26%
18%
11%
Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
011
2014-2023
Africa
2024-2033
2014-2033
Share of 2014-2033
new deliveries
459
514
973
3%
5,107
7,146
12,253
39%
620
598
1,218
4%
Europe
3,135
3,032
6,167
20%
Latin America
1,011
1,252
2,263
7%
Middle East
1,039
1,109
2,148
7%
North America
2,816
2,717
5,533
18%
452
351
803
2%
14,639
16,719
31,358
100%
Asia/Pacific
CIS
Freighters
World
30,555
New
deliveries
803
31,358
Asia/Pacific
Alone to take
39%
deliveries
N.America/
Europe
38%
deliveries
Converted
1,555
Freighter
Fleet
Remarketed
& stay
in service
4,263
1,555
Pax aircraft
Converted to
freighters
11,037
Pax aircraft
Replaced by
more
Eco-efficient
types
11,037
Retired
1,318
12,355
Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
013
02
Demand
for air travel
017
Economic growth
Increasing urbanisation
Expanding middle class
Rise in migration, tourism
and international students
History
INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS EXPECTED TO REACH
1.6 BILLION PEOPLE BY 2020
Source: World Tourism Organization, Airbus
Forecast
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
0
1995
016
018
019
80%
70%
Other
North America
Asia-Pacific
60%
50%
6
5
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Rural
Urban
2013
2023
7,100
7,900
33%
2033
8,500
48%
63%
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
World Population
5,375
Urban share
x 2.3
3,740
2033
775
3,675
40%
35%
2,356
30%
25%
2013
20%
15%
2023
596
2,186
x 3.8
446
10%
967
5%
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0%
264
261
252
679
697
673
021
Network
development
150
100
50
Middle East
LCC
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
1997
200
1996
1995
Others
Operating flights
Evolution of monthly number of flights, 1996-2013
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0
1998
1,400,000
1997
1996
020
022
42
0.8 M
94%
AVIATION
MEGA-CITIES
DAILY PASSENGERS:
to/from/via 42 cities
91
2.2 M
99%
AVIATION
MEGA-CITIES
DAILY PASSENGERS:
to/from/via 91 cities
023
025
Productivity up,
Environmental impact down
In the last 30 years:
Airport movements up nearly 2.5 times
Airport connectivity almost doubled
Average offered seats per aircraft heading
towards 200, aircraft are getting bigger!
Offered ASKs per aircraft have more
than doubled
x 2.4 x1.8
AIRPORT
CONNECTIVITY
MOVEMENT
PER AIRPORT
Is there a limit to productivity
improvements?
Still some margin regarding airport use
AIRPORT MOVEMENTS
AIRPORT CONNECTIVITY
20,000
14
18,000
12
16,000
10
14,000
12,000
10,000
x 2.4
8,000
x 1.8
6,000
4,000
2
2,000
0
2013
2010
2007
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
2013
2010
2007
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
0
1980
024
027
Since 2000:
Average fuel per passenger per trip
is down 31%
Therefore CO2 is also down 31%
FUEL CONSUMPTION
120
250
100
200
+ 43%
150
- 31%
80
60
100
40
50
20
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2000
2013
2010
2007
C02 EMISSIONS
- 31%
250
200
150
100
50
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0
2001
+ 111%
2000
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
2001
0
1980
026
03
Traffic
forecast
030
Passenger
traffic
forecast
A
n average growth rate of
9.8% per year will make
Domestic India the
7th largest flow by 2033,
and the fastest growing
domestic flow in
our forecast.
2013-2033
4.7%
73%
PER ANNUM
GROWTH DESPITE
MULTIPLE CRISES OVER
THE LAST TEN YEARS
Financial Crisis
SARS
9/11
Asian Crisis
Gulf Crisis
Oil Crisis
Oil Crisis
5.0
73%
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
2013
2008
2003
1998
1993
1983
1978
1973
1968
1963
0.0
031
7.0%
7.2%
7.6%
7.8%
7.9%
8.2%
7.0%
7.8%
8.3%
7.4%
7.6%
8.0%
8.6%
8.4%
7.5%
7.5%
9.5%
PRC - Russia
CIS - PRC
8.4%
8.9%
9.5%
500
_
Billions RPK
Billions RPK
Domestic India
PRC - USA
Domestic Brazil
Domestic India
Domestic USA
Domestic PRC
032
Global Market Forecast
2,000
1,500
1,000
033
400
300
200
100
034
% SHARE OF
2013 WORLD RPK
Asia-Pacific
1,000
2013 traffic
2,000
3,000
4,000
2012-2033 traffic
20-YEAR
CAGR
% SHARE OF
2033 WORLD RPK
5,000
Europe
North America
Middle East
8%
7.1% 13%
Latin America
5% 5.4% 6%
CIS
4% 5.4% 5%
Africa
3% 4.7% 3%
035
036
14
AdvancedAdvanced CAGR
EmergingAdvanced CAGR
2.6%
12
EmergingEmerging CAGR
5.0%
6.8%
10
28%
Advanced-Advanced
34%
6
Advanced-Emerging
42%
4
33%
38%
Emerging-Emerging
25%
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
037
GMF 2013
GMF 2014
2012-2032
+4.6%/year
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
2012-2032
+4.3%/year
10,000
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
038
039
04
Demand
for passenger
aircraft
043
Demand for
passenger
aircraft
The fleet will double to 34,800 aircraft
75% of operations are below 1,300nm for
single-aisle, 4,800nm for Twin-Aisle,
and 5,900nm for VLAs
Each segment has discrete areas of operation in
terms of range, but clearly there is some overlap
Average seats per single aisle flight increasing from
~130 in 1993 to ~155 in 2013
A focus for larger aircraft at Aviation Mega-cities
20 %
OF TWIN-AISLES
OPERATE
LESS THAN
2,000 NM
044
SINGLE-AISLE SEATS
+14%
DENSIFICATION OF SINGLE-AISLE AIRCRAFT
160
155
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
1993
1998
2008
2013
045
046
047
Regional
Twin-aisle
Single-aisle
VLA
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
6,800
6,600
6,400
6,200
6,000
5,800
5,600
5,400
5,200
5,000
4,800
4,600
4,400
4,200
4,000
3,800
3,400
3,200
3,000
2,800
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
400
200
0%
048
A380
From/To/Between AMC
Between secondary cities
777-300/300ER
787
747-400/8
777-200/200ER/
-200LR
767
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
A330
049
050
NORTH AMERICA
7% 61%
32%
EUROPE
14%
1% 85%
13%
3% 79%
18%
2% 85%
ASIA PACIFIC
MIDDLE EAST
LCCs
10%
16%
1% 89%
29%
5% 66%
38%
46%
AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
20%
22%
1% 79%
3% 75%
OTHERS*
23%
2% 75%
New deliveries
30,555 aircraft
1,228
SA
7,256
TA
22,071
VLA
Fleet evolution
Market value
6,547
17,963
Growth
10%
3,713
3,364
2,439 2,514
1,219
100
1,405
125
150
US$ 2.1
trillion
175
210
250
300
US$ 1.9
trillion
350
898
400
1,228
16,855
VLA
US$ 0.4
trillion
12,592
4,263
Beginning
2014
2033
Replaced
Stay in service
& remarketed
43%
47%
051
05
Demand
by region
054
AsiaPacific
Asia-Pacific will lead world
economic growth, both in
real GDP with an average of
4.6% per year and in trade
with an average of 5.7% per
year. GDP is an important
driver of aviation growth.
Over 50% of the new
routes will connect with
Asia-Pacific.
Emerging markets, such
as Africa and the CIS,
are also set for more
connectivity with AsiaPacific, with nearly 20%
of new routes to the region
coming from these regions.
Seats and flights offered by
the LCCs have increased
dramatically since 2000.
The fact that the seats
offered has out-paced flight
growth, means that the
average aircraft capacity
utilised by LCCs has grown
more than 50% over that
period.
Domestic and intraregional flying set to grow
faster than inter-regional
traffic; 6.2% per annum vs
5.2%. Although both are well
above the global average for
20 year traffic growth at 4.7%
CAGR.
NEW DELIVERIES
12,253
38% 62%
REPLACEMENT
FOR GROWTH
34%
055
056
Results
RPK traffic growth from/to
Asia-Pacific by region
20232033
In 2014
5,083
Beginning
2014
* Passenger aircraft 100 seats
** 2013-2033 CAGR
057
058
Europe
Europe will represent 20%
of the world economy
by 2033.
Air traffic in Europe,
expressed in ASKs,
is 15% larger than
the peak pre-crisis
in 2007/2008.
Today, 45% of all seats
offered within Europe
are on an LCC flight
and there have been
significant increases in LCC
traffic to/from other regions
such as CIS, Northern Africa
and the Middle East.
Today, there are more
than 50 million monthly
passengers connecting
to long-haul flights.
For major international
carriers in Europe, these
represent the core short
haul market.
While the majority of the
growth has come from
the short-haul market,
which has grown by 75%
in the last ten years; the
long-haul market has also
seen impressive growth of
45% over the same period.
Today, nearly 50% of all
long-haul flights connect
with Europe and over 50%
of long-haul seats offered
connect to the region.
For the next 20 years,
long-haul passenger
traffic will grow slightly faster
than short-haul traffic
(3.9% per year vs 3.8%.)
NEW DELIVERIES
6,167
49% 51%
REPLACEMENT
FOR GROWTH
79%
059
060
Results
061
062
063
North
America
US real GDP growth is forecast to
average 2.5% per year in the 20132033 period. By 2033, North America
will still account for 22% of the global
economy (in real terms).
Origin and destination (O&D) traffic
to/from North America to grow at an
average of 3.4% for the next 20 years.
The annual retirement trend of
passenger aircraft (>=100 seats)
in North America is on an upward
trajectory, with a 10-year CAGR
of 6.8%.
The Federal Aviation Administration
(FAA) estimates that airport
congestion and delays cost the
economy $22 billion in 2012, which
could escalate to $63 billion in 2040.
One tactic, which is helping to alleviate
some of the effects today is the use of
larger aircraft.
Inter-regional flying set to grow
significantly faster than domestic or
intra-region operations, CAGR of 4.2%
vs 1.9%.
NEW DELIVERIES
5,533
65 35
%
REPLACEMENT
FOR GROWTH
85%
064
Results
065
066
NEW DELIVERIES
2,
1
48
20 80
%
REPLACEMENT
Middle East
The Middle East has
become a major centre
for air transport, one of
growing global importance.
The share of passenger
aircraft in the world
operated by the regions
carriers has doubled in
10 years. This has occurred
even with the global fleet
of wide-body aircraft
growing 24%.
It is the only region in the
world where the wide-body
fleet is larger than the
single-aisle fleet.
FOR GROWTH
62%
067
068
Results
069
070
Latin America
& Caribbean
The regions real GDP
growth is expected to
average 3.9% per year in
the 2013-2033 period, above
world average of 3.2%, and
helping to stimulate air travel.
In countries such as Chile,
Brazil and Colombia,
the propensity to travel
is expected to reach the
levels currently observed
in many more mature
economies by 2033.
Traffic within the region
is expected to be prominent
over the next 20 years,
representing 35% of total
RPKs in 2033, from 30% in
2013.
Two of the top twenty
largest traffic flows, are
international traffic flows
connecting to the region:
Western Europe - South
America, with an expected
annual growth of 4.6% and
South America - USA, with
an average annual expansion
of 5.2%.
There has been strong
growth in domestic
markets, even beyond the
two largest markets, Brazil
and Mexico. For example,
over the last ten years a
double digit annual growth
rate in Chile was matched by
Colombia and Peru.
NEW DELIVERIES
2,263
33% 67%
REPLACEMENT
FOR GROWTH
79%
071
072
Results
RPK traffic growth from/to
Latin America by region
073
074
075
NEW DELIVERIES
CIS
The Commonwealth of Independent States
(CIS) is one of the largest regions in the world,
departing from St Petersburg in Russia, it
would take almost 9 hours flying to reach its
eastern most city.
Over the last decade, traffic to/from/within CIS
has grown on average 11% a year in terms of
ASKs, twice as fast as the world average
of 5.1%.
In 2013, traffic growth reached 7.0%,
dramatically outpacing economic activity,
aviations traditional driver for growth.
An easing of visa procedures helped, stimulate
the number of arrivals in CIS countries, which
have increased 50% over the last 10 years.
Traffic growth will be above the World average,
with strong growth in inter-regional traffic at a
6.2% CAGR.
The share of older less efficient eastern built
aircraft in the fleet, above 100 seats, has
reduced in 10 years from 86% in 2003 to only
12% today.
1,218
THE MAJORITY WILL
BE FOR GROWTH
85%
WILL BE SINGLE-AISLES
132%
2,044
TO
AIRCRAFT
076
Results
1,036
20 year new
deliveries
1,218
077
078
Africa
Africas biggest asset
is people, its population
is set to grow to 1.7 billion
by 2033.
Strengthening
entrepreneurship, travel
and tourism, regional
integration are often listed
as just a few of the drivers of
sustainable growth in Africa.
Over the 2013-2033 period,
Africa is forecast to reach
similar economic growth
as Asia-Pacific, with
average real GDP growth
of 4.6% per year or trade
growth of 5.5% per year.
In terms of air traffic, intraregional development also
represents a huge potential
for air transport in Africa,
as the share of intra-regional
passenger traffic is well
below observed levels in
Asia-Pacific, the Americas
or Europe.
At just an 8% share of intraregional traffic, the low cost
model could play a bigger
role in Africas aviation
future.
More growth expected on
domestic and intra-regional
flying than inter-regionally,
6.1% vs 5.5% CAGR.
NEW DELIVERIES
973
8%
REPLACEMENT
92%
FOR GROWTH
75%
WILL BE SINGLE-AISLES
146%
BY 2033
079
080
Results
081
06
Demand
for freighters
084
085
Freight
forecast
2014
977
775
452
337
170
67
North America
Middle East
Latin America
303
49 86
162
74
Asia-Pacific
Africa
4.5
798
% CAGR*
New freighters
Conversions
1,500
Demand fundamentals
remain strong in the long
term. Global trade is forecast
to develop at 4.3% per year
for the next 20 years.
Freight market dynamics
have changed however.
In recent years, changing
practices in inventory
management, available
capacity and pricing from
other modes, such as ships,
has had an effect.
1,145
1,000
414
612
1,555
Converted
601
500
731
803
New build
212
Fleet to
almost
Double
0
Mid-Size
30t < payload < 80t
389
Large
payload < 80t
Small
10t < payload < 30t
086
087
07
Summary &
methodology
090
091
Summary
of results
NEW PASSENGER AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION
Africa
AsiaPacific
Single-Aisle
734
Small
Twin-Aisle
Africa
AsiaPacific
Small
39
311
81
82
86
612
4,953
Mid-size
23
116
22
123
37
24
386
731
199
2,303
Large
10
73
13
27
16
73
212
341
35
1,228
TOTAL
72
500
42
231
119
46
545
1,555
2,148
5,533
30,555
CIS
Europe
8,066
1,036
4,895
1,784
826
4,730
22,071
158
2,510
132
754
349
481
569
Intermediate
Twin-Aisle
54
1,055
25
368
102
500
Very Large
Aircraft
27
622
25
150
28
973
12,253
1,218
6,167
2,263
TOTAL
Small
Mid-size
72
13
36
30
29
229
Large
147
10
50
65
12
219
23
86
31
94
TOTAL
Europe
Europe
Africa
CIS
CIS
Africa
AsiaPacific
Single-Aisle
734
414
Small
Twin-Aisle
109
389
338
803
Europe
8,066
1,036
4,895
1,784
826
4,730
22,071
162
2,535
134
763
356
486
709
5,145
Intermediate
Twin-Aisle
57
1,147
39
410
125
543
320
2,641
Very Large
Aircraft
32
724
32
185
29
387
112
1,501
985
12,472
1,241
6,253
2,294
2,242
5,871
31,358
TOTAL
CIS
092
093
market.forecast@airbus.com
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