Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
de
Decisiones
usando
Enfoques
Probabilistas
Dr. Pedro Aarn Hernndez valos
C.A.T.I.A.
INTRODUCCIN
C.A.T.I.A.
C.A.T.I.A.
Orgenes
de
la
probabilidad
RAE:
Casualidad,
Caso
Fortuito.
Sin
Rumbo
ni
Orden
Cmo ganar?
C.A.T.I.A.
C.A.T.I.A.
TOMA
DE
DECISIONES
C.A.T.I.A.
C.A.T.I.A.
A la vista de esto y de
lo anterior, esta claro
que la forma ms
segura de conducir es ir
borracho y a gran
velocidad.
C.A.T.I.A.
Qu
carrera
estudiar?
Renunciar
a
un
trabajo?
Estudiar
un
posgrado?
Comprar
un
auto?
Qu
enfermedad
Hene
un
paciente?
Casarse?
Decidir
si
veo
una
pelcula?
Cenar
un
plato
de
cereal?
C.A.T.I.A.
10
Se llama inferencia:
11
Representacin
de
la
Informacin
Informacin
Textual
(libros,
cartas,
texto
digital)
Informacin
Visual
(imgenes,
dibujos,
videos)
Informacin
audiHva
(Seales
de
audio)
Con
el
incremento
exponencial
de
TI,
el
crecimiento
de
la
misma
en
las
3
principales
representaciones
crece
a
pasos
agigantados.
Cmo
discriminamos
informacin
relevante
de
la
que
no
lo
es?
Con
qu
Hpo
de
informacin
tomamos
decisiones?
[Relevante
|
Irrelevante]
C.A.T.I.A.
12
P (A \ B)
P (A|B) =
P (B)
PROBABILIDAD CONDICIONAL
C.A.T.I.A.
13
Obteniendo
probabilidades
va
estadsHca
Nublado?
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
Lluvia?
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
6
= 0.6
10
4
P( Nublado) = = 0.4
10
4
P(Lluvia) = = 0.4
10
6
P( Lluvia) = = 0.6
10
P(Nublado) =
C.A.T.I.A.
P (A \ B)
P (A|B) =
P (B)
P(Nub | Lluvia) =
P(Nub | Lluvia) =
P(Nub | Lluvia) =
P(Nub | Lluvia) =
14
P (A \ B)
P (A|B) =
P (B)
P (A \ B) = P (A|B) P (B)
P(B | A) P(A)
P(A | B) =
P(B)
TEOREMA
DE
BAYES
C.A.T.I.A.
15
3
mquinas,
productos
defectuosos
0.05
0.6
0.95
0.10
0.2
0.90
0.7
0.3
0.93
D
no D
D
P (A|D) ?
no D
D
no D
P. Condicional
P (A|B)
C.A.T.I.A.
16
3
mquinas,
productos
defectuosos
A
B
P(D A)
P(A | D) =
P(D)
Interseccin
P (A \ B) = P (A|B) P (B)
C.A.T.I.A.
17
NAIVE BAYES
C.A.T.I.A.
18
Temp
Humidity
Windy
Class
sunny
hot
high
false
Don't Play
sunny
hot
high
true
Don't Play
overcast
hot
high
false
Play
rainy
mild
high
false
Play
rainy
cool
normal
false
Play
rainy
cool
normal
true
Dont Play
overcast
cool
normal
true
Play
sunny
mild
high
false
Dont Play
sunny
cool
normal
false
Play
rainy
mild
normal
false
Play
sunny
mild
normal
true
Play
overcast
mild
high
true
Play
overcast
hot
normal
false
Play
rainy
mild
high
true
Dont Play
DataSet
C.A.T.I.A.
Outlook
19
Clasicacin
C.A.T.I.A.
Outlook
Temp
Humidity
Windy
Class
sunny
cool
high
true
20
Naive Bayes
Outlook
temperature
yes
no
sunny
overcast
rainy
sunny
yes
no
hot
mild
cool
hot
2/9
2/5
high
mild 4/9
2/5
normal
cool 3/9
1/5
2/9 3/5
humidity
3/9 2/5
windy
yes
no
yes
no
High
False
normal
true
3/9 4/5
false
6/9
2/5
6/9 5/5
true
3/9
3/5
play
yes
no
9/14 5/14
C.A.T.I.A.
21
Naive Bayes
(Test)
Outlook
Temp
Humidity
Windy
Class
sunny
cool
high
true
P(Class = yes | Outlook = sunny Temp = cool Humidity = high Windy = true)
P(Class = no | Outlook = sunny Temp = cool Humidity = high Windy = true)
Teorema de Bayes
C.A.T.I.A.
P(B | A) P(A)
P(A | B) =
P(B)
22
Naive Bayes
(Test)
P(Class = yes | Outlook = sunny Temp = cool Humidity = high Windy = true) =
P(Outlook = sunny Temp = cool Humidity = high Windy = true|Class = yes) P(Class = yes)
=
P(Outlook = sunny Temp = cool Humidity = high Windy = true)
P(Outlook = sunny | Class = yes) P(Temp = cool | Class = yes) P(Humidity = high|Class = yes)
P(Windy = true|Class = yes) P(Class = yes)
=
=
P(Outlook = sunny Temp = cool Humidity = high Windy = true)
93 93 93 149
=
P(Outlook = sunny Temp = cool Humidity = high Windy = true)
0, 0053
P(Outlook = sunny Temp = cool Humidity = high Windy = true)
2
9
C.A.T.I.A.
23
Naive Bayes
(Test)
P(Class = no | Outlook = sunny Temp = cool Humidity = high Windy = true) =
P(Outlook = sunny Temp = cool Humidity = high Windy = true | Class = no) P(Class = no)
=
P(Outlook = sunny Temp = cool Humidity = high Windy = true)
P(Outlook = sunny | Class = no) P(Temp = cool | Class = no) P(Humidity = high | Class = no)
3
5
15 54 53 145
=
=
P(Outlook = sunny Temp = cool Humidity = high Windy = true)
C.A.T.I.A.
0,0206
P(Outlook = sunny Temp = cool Humidity = high Windy = true)
24
Naive Bayes
(Test)
P(Class = yes | Outlook = sunny Temp = cool Humidity = high Windy = true) =
0,0053
P(Outlook = sunny Temp = cool Humidity = high Windy = true)
C.A.T.I.A.
0,0206
P(Outlook = sunny Temp = cool Humidity = high Windy = true)
25
Naive Bayes
(Test)
Pyes
0,0053
0,0053
0,0053
P(E)
P(E)
=
=
=
= 20.5%
0,0053 0,0206 0,0053 + 0,0206 0,0259
+
P(E)
P( E )
P( E )
0,0206
P(E)
Pno =
= 79,5%
0,0053 0,0206
+
P(E)
P( E )
C.A.T.I.A.
NO se juega
26
APLICACIONES
C.A.T.I.A.
27
C.A.T.I.A.
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29
Pxel.
Pi + x + el: Picture element. R2
f (r , c) = p
p := tono de color.
r = row, (rengln).
c = column (columna).
C.A.T.I.A.
30
UHlidad de la Convolucin 2D
C.A.T.I.A.
31
Deteccin
de
Bordes
*
Ejemplo
de
Aplicacin
C.A.T.I.A.
32
C.A.T.I.A.
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C.A.T.I.A.
34
*
Ejemplo
de
Aplicacin.
Como
reconocer
Placas
en
un
Automvil?
Cmo
C.A.T.I.A.
OCR
35
36
C.A.T.I.A.
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Vigilancia
Videojuegos
(Kinect)
Recuperacin
3D,
IA.
RobHca
C.A.T.I.A.
38
Seccin
de
Preguntas.
Gracias!!
C.A.T.I.A.
39