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L.
SULLIVAN
Indiana Universitv
ROBERT
E. O'CONNOR
1256
1972
1257
1
2The individual voter cannot arrive at this conclusion unless he has first familiarized himself with the
issue positions of the candidates and the later roll-call
behavior of the winners. We know that the possession
of this information is the exception rather than the
An exception to this statement is found in Jeff rule. If, however, a district (or an entire political sysFishel, "Party, Ideology, and the Congressional Chaltem) has in the recent past offered little choice, it may
lenger," American Political Science Review, 63 (Debecome part of the collective attitude of the citizenry
cember, 1969), 1213-1232.
that all attempts to gather this type of information are
'John L. Sullivan, "Linkage Models of the, Powasted.
litical System," Public Opinion and Political Attitudes:
`Richard Rose and Harve Mossawir, "Voting and
A Reader, ed. Alan R. Wilcox, forthcoming.
Elections: A Functional Analysis," Political Studies,
'See, among others, David B. Truman, The Con15 (June, 1967), 173-201.
gressional Party (New York: Wiley, 1959); Julius
"See Appendix A for the questionnaire, roll calls,
Turner, Party and Constituency: Pressures on Congress
and scaling. Congressional Quar-terly was able to ob(Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press,
tain a 100 per cent response rate by making ample use
1951); and Duncan MacRae, Dimensions of Congresof telephone followups. In several cases, aides annional Voting (Berkeley: University of California
swered the questions, but presumably they gave the
Press, 1958).
same answers the candidate would have given. If the
"Fishel, p. 1221.
incumbent was absent for a roll call, he was asked
"Sullivan, Part V.
how he would have voted had he been present.
1258
Vol. 66
Freq.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
69
19
28
31
21
24
28
41
%
16
4
6
7
5
6
6
9
Score
Freq.
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
40
46
35
21
14
9
5
3
1
9
11
8
5
3
2
1
1
0
99
435
Mean = 5.9
Median= 6
to satisfythe
ing how much choice is sufficient
thirdlinkage condition.Does the election offer
the electoratea chance to affectpolicy outputs
in a significantmanner? Our approach to the
problem is to examine aggregate differences
among the candidates. This determineswhether
or not the election of one aggregateset of candidates over anotherset would have made any
differencesin the balance of power in Congress. Would the most liberal Congress which
could have been elected, in the aggregate,be
fromthe most conservativeConquite different
gress which mighthave been chosen?
Table 3 presentsthe attitudedistributionsof
five hypotheticalCongresses and of the real
90th Congress on the foreignpolicy questions.
The most liberal and most conservativehypotheticalCongresses are composed of the candidates having the lower or higherscore, respectively,foreach districton the foreignpolicy attitudescale.17
In each case, the most liberal and most conservative Congresses are based on the scores within the
I
Freq.
%,
Score
Freq.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
61
5
20
18
19
31
36
48
14
1
5
4
4
7
8
11
8
9
10
Il
12
13
14
15
16
42
56
43
24
14
9
5
3
1
435
%:J
10
13
10
6
3
2
1
1
0
100
Mean =6.5
Median = 7
1972
1259
Unchallenged
Winners&
2 liberal
3 moderate-liberal
4 moderate
5 mod.-conservative
6 conservative
31
51
177
104
72
45
60
173
71
86
Mean
Median
435
4.3
4
435
4.2
4
Score**
Winners
Losers
N
Most
Democratic* Republican*
NNNN
Most
Most
Liberal
Conservative
58
76
224
49
28
18
35
126
126
130
73
91
203
48
20
3
20
147
127
138
435
3. 8
4
435
4.7
5
435
3.7
4
435
4.9
5
* "Most Democratic" Congress includes Democrats plus unchallenged Republicans; "Most Republican"
Congressincludes Republicans plus unchallengedDemocrats.
** See Appendix A for a clarificationof scale scores by issue area.
1260
Vol. 66
Score**
2 liberal
3 moderate-liberal
4 moderate
5 mod.-conservative
6 conservative
Mean
Median
Unchallenged
Most
Most
Most
Most
Winners
N
Winners&
Losers
Democratic*
N
Republican*
N
Liberal
N
Conservative
N
201
15
110
17
92
162
65
103
16
89
257
36
64
6
72
106
44
149
27
109
272
32
59
6
66
92
48
154
27
114
435
435
435
435
435
435
3.5
4
3.5
3
3.1
2
4.0
4
3.0
2
4.0
4
Most
Conservative
N
7
25
64
132
207
130
160
67
33
45
6
26
61
128
214
435
435
435
435
6.6
6
10.5
11
6.5
6
10.5
11
Winners&
Losers
79
81
43
70
162
57
105
85
90
98
129
161
64
28
53
435
435
8.7
10
8.3
8
4 liberal
5-6 moderate-liberal
7-9 moderate
10-11 mod.-conservative
12 conservative
Mean
Median
Most
Liberal
N
Most
Winners
N
Most
Democratic* Republican*
N
N
1972
1261
If the most liberal Congress had been Taken at face value, this conclusion does seem
elected, therewould have been only 78 conser- to resolve the problem: there is no predictable
vatives or moderate conservatives,while 290 relationship.Yet under the appropriatecondimemberswould have favored most of the lib- tions, he implies, there ought to be a strong
eral items of social legislation. If the liberals positive relationship.Wicker goes on to invenhad been able to obtain the supportof slightly tory the kinds of factors--personaland situamore than half of the moderateliberals,a clear tional-that determinethe strengthof the relaliberal majoritywould have resulted. On the tionshipbetweenverbal attitudesand overt beother hand, if the most conservativeCongress havior. Personal factorsinclude other attitudes
had been elected, there would have been only relevantto the observed behavior: competing
32 liberals or moderate liberals, leading to a motives;verbal, intellectual,and social abilities;
clear conservativemajoritywith the supportof and activitylevels. Situational factors include
only a small numberof the 128 moderate con- the degree of privacy, normativeprescriptions
servatives.The median domesticscale score for of behavior, alternative behaviors available,
the mostliberalCongress is 6 (toward the mod- specificity of attitude objects, unforeseen
erate end of the moderate-liberalcategory); for events, and consequences of the act, expected
the most conservativeCongress it is 11 (toward or actual.21 Without attemptinga complete
the conservativeend of the moderate-conserva- enumeration, we will suggest the effects of
tive category). This is a meaningfuldifference some of these variables in the presentresearch.
because different
electoral outcomes implymaThe fact that we are comparing actual bejoritysupportfor different
policies.
havior withbehavioral intentionsof high specificity,ratherthan with general attitudestoward
Attitudesand Behavior
the attitudeobject in question,enhances the reWe have been talkingabout attitudestoward lationship between the two differenttypes of
public policy. It must be emphasized,however, measurements. For example, competing mothat our measures for nonincumbentsconsist tives in this case could easily include the conentirelyof responses to a questionnaire and flictbetweenattitudetowardcivil rightsand the
representwhat are conventionallyreferredto as desire to get re-elected.If questioned about his
verbal attitudes,while our measures for incum- attitude toward civil rights, a representative
bents consistpartiallyof actual roll-callbehav- may have indicated a positive response yet
ior. The questionnaire asked the nonincum- voted against a civil rightsbill because he felt
bentsif theysupportedcertainprogramswhich that his constituencyopposed it and would not
had been voted on in the previousCongress. As re-elect him if he voted for it. This conflict
a result,the attitude-behavior
distinctionshould should be lessened because the questionnaire
be at a minimum,but it would be riskyto as- did not ask the challengerswhetheror not they
sume, without a thorough empirical examina- favored civil rights,but, rather whether they
tion, that the questionnairedata and the roll- would have supported (voted for) a particular
call data are comparable.'9
civil rights bill. Presumably, they considered
The general question of the relationshipbe- these conflictingmotives in the same manner
tween verbal attitudesand overt behavior has they would have if actually faced with the benever been adequately resolved. In a review of havioral decision. Undoubtedly there is slipmore than 32 studies,Wicker concluded:
page, since some candidates may not have been
Taken as a whole,thesestudiessuggestthat it is aware of all the conflictingmotivestheywould
more likelythatattitudeswill be un- encounterif theyactuallyhad to make a behavconsiderably
relatedor only slightlyrelatedto overtbehaviors ioral decision. The point is that the slippage
than that attitudeswill be closely relatedto ac- should be minimal as compared to less behavtions. Product-moment
re- iorallyspecificattitudes.
correlationcoefficients
latingthe two kindsof responsesare rarelyabove
Or consider activitylevel. The attitude-be.30, and oftenare nearzero.20
havior relationshipis hypothesizedto be considerablystrongerfor the active as opposed to
1' Miller and Stokes, "Constituency Influence in Conthe more apathetic individual. Certainly the
gress," p. 48, report correlations between the true
opinion of Congressmen (as measured by a questioncandidates in the 1966 congressionalelections
naire) and their roll-call behavior of 0.75 among those
active to produce a strongrewere sufficiently
who felt their attitudes were expressed in their roll
between attitudeand behavior vis-alationship
calls, but only 0.04 among those who felt that they
vis the major issues of the day.
were not.
It seems, therefore,that although the ques"'Allan W. Wicker, "Attitudes versus Actions: The
Relationship of Verbal and Overt Behavioral Responses
tionnaireand roll-calldata are not isomorphic,
to Attitude Objects,"
(Autumn, 1969), 65.
Journal of Social
Issues,
25
"Wicker,
pp. 67-74.
1262
Vol. 66
3
4
Postelection 5
6
Roll-Call
7
Scale
Position 8
9
Totals
1
0
00
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Totals
0
0
1
0
1
0
4
1
0
0
1
3
2
3
2
0
1
0
3
1
12
0
1
1
1
3
1
31
7
1
3
2
10
4
52
10
19
38
79
gamma= .48
Somer's d1y=.37
3
4
Postelection 5
Roll-Call 6
7
Scale
8
Position
9
Totals
Totals
63
11
3
1
1
0
0
16
3
0
0
0
0
0
46
6
8
2
3
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
5
1
5
2
2
1
6
0
1
0
1
3
4
9
0
1
5
1
20
15
102
131
24
21
8
29
20
119
79
19
66
22
18
144
352*
gamma = .86
Somer's dxy= .72
* Among the 356 incumbentwinners,therewere no postelectiondata forfour: both Younger (R-Calif.) and
Fogarty (D-R.T.) had died, Powell (D-N.Y.) was excluded fromthe House, and McCormack (D-Mass.), as
Speaker, did not vote.
1972
1263
tic issues. Table 7 illustratesthe relationshipbeTable 9. RelationshipBetweenScale Scores on PreElection Attitudesand Postelection Roll-Call
tween the incumbents'roll-callbehavior before
Behavior: Nonincumbents,
Open Housing
the election and theirpostelectionbehavior on
the same issues.23 The relationship is very
Pre-electionAttitudeScale Scores
strong for the incumbents,while it is moder1
2
3
Totals
ately strongfor the nonincumbents.This difference requires a note of caution regardingthe
Postelection 1
15
7
7
29
assumptionof strictcomparabilityof the quesRoll-Call
2
0
0
1
1
tionnaireand pre-electionroll-calldata, at least Scale Scores 3
4
6
39
49
on domesticwelfareissues. But clearlythe relationship,when compared with Wicker's dismal
19
Totals
13
47
79
conclusion, is considerably stronger than his
gamma= .80
upperlimitof .30.
Generally the winners voted as our pre- Somer's dxy=.58
election scores indicated they would. Among
23 Gamma is strongerthan Sommer's
d, because it
ignoresall ties. It considersonly the concordantand
discordantpairs, while Somer's d, is penalized for
everycase in which the dependentvariable varies but
the independentvariable does not vary. The actual
theoreticalrelationshipsof Tables 7-10 are probably
overestimated
of gammabecause if two
by the strength
cases are tied on one variable but not on the other,
theyoughtnot to be ignoredunless the theorypredicts
that this should happen. This is not the case here.
Conversely,Somer's d probably underestimatesthe
relationshipbecause some of the cases which lower
Somer's dy, cases whichdifferon the dependentvariable but noton the independentvariable,do so because
of measurement
error.Two nonincumbents
whose preelectionscores are 8 on domesticissues mightbe expected to differin postelectionbehavior because the
intermediate
option is not so easily taken on roll calls
as it is on questionnaires,
and theirreasonsforhedging
on one issue in the pre-electionquestionnairemay be
quite different,
leading to a different
postelectionrollcall decision.Somer's d~.,is included,however,to illustratethe range of values obtained,dependingon the
methodof handlingties. Somer's d, was selectedover
den,which is reduced by cases which vary on the independentbut not the dependentvariable,because of
the natureof the two different
kinds of measurement.
The questionnaireallowed more options than a roll
-all, in that abstentionon a roll call is more difficult
than selectingthe intermediateoption on a questioniaire. Therefore,the situationof variationon the independentvariablecoupled withties on the dependent
variableis slightlymorelikelyto occur thanis variation
on the dependentvariable coupled with ties on the
independentvariable.
Score
3 liberal
4-5 moderate-liberal
6 moderate
7-8 moderate-conservative
9 conservative
Mean
Median
138
49
Totals
63
171
Postelection 1
Roll-Call 2
ScaleScores 3
169
3
9
3
1
0
25
5
137
197
9
146
431
Totals
181
167
352
10
6.3
7
gamma= .97
Somer's dy =.78
1264
N
226
10
195
431
Mean
Median
1.9
I
Tables 9 and 10 present the relationships between pre-election and postelection measures
on open housing for nonincumbents and incumbents, respectively. Again, the measures of
association for the incumbents are higher, although they are also very high for the nonincumbents. This finding indicates a very strong
link between attitudes and behavior, and comparability of the pre-election measures in the
area of civil rights. The inferences about civil
rights policy in the section on hypothetical
Congresses seem to be supported. Generalizing
the strength of the attitude-behavior relationship to those nonincumbents who lost, one can
readily see that they would have voted as their
attitudes indicated they would.
Unlike the shifts on domestic welfare, the
shifts on civil rights were sufficient to affect
policy. Fifteen nonincumbents shifted in the
liberal direction, ten in the conservative direction; the figures for the incumbents are 33 vs.
12. As Table 11 illustrates, this shift resulted in
a balance of power favoring the liberals (i.e.,
the bill passed). When compared to the balance
of power predicted before the election (winners
column and marginal, Table 4; pre-election attitudes, Tables 9 and 10) this change represents
a shift from the moderate position. A shift on
civil rights was to be expected, as this was a
roll-call vote with only abstention representing
a middle alternative. Therefore we have the
paradoxical situation in which pre-election attitude is a better predictor of roll-call behavior
on civil rights than on domestic welfare issues,
yet the fewer civil rights crossovers result in a
new balance of power. This result is entirely
due to the precarious balance of power on civil
rights issues, plus the events, such as the assassination of Dr. Martin Luther King, which influenced the passage of the Open Housing Act
of 1968.
Summary and Discussion
This paper essentially presents three simple
Vol. 66
findings: (1) that the electorate in the aggregate was offered a substantively significant
choice in the Congressional election of 1966,
(2) that winning candidates in that election
generallyvoted as theirpre-electionissue positions predicted, and (3) that the Democratic
candidates were almost invariablymore liberal
Republican competitors.
than theirintradistrict
These simple empirical findingshave broad
implicationsfor democratictheory.Concerning
the linkage question, the data suggest that the
relativelyweak linkage between public opinion
and policy outputs is neither a result of the
party system'sfailureto provide choices on issue positionsnor of the system'sprovidingoral
choices later ignored in roll-call behavior. The
voters could have established a strong overall
linkage.
The findingsalso fuel the discussion about
voter rationality.In all three cases, the most
liberal Congress is very similarto the Congress
composed of Democrats and unchallenged Republicans. Similarly, the most conservative
Congress resemblesthe most Republican Congress. Only 19 of the Republican candidates
were more liberal than theirDemocratic opponents on the overall scale, even though they
may have been more liberal than many Democratic candidates in other districts.This finding
has interestingimplications in light of studies
which have bemoaned the electorate's supposedly limitedawareness of public affairsand the
limited extent of policy-orientedvoting. If a
voter in 1966 wanted to vote conservatively,he
only had to know that the Republican partyis
generally more conservative than the Democratic partyin order to cast his ballot correctly
in light of his values. If our findingsmay be
generalized to other elections, party may be
said to provide a valid cue for the policy-oriented voter who does not have a thorough
awareness of the issues or the policy positions
of the candidates.
If informational costs for policy-oriented
voters are so low, why did Miller and Stokes
fail to findstronglinkagesbetweenpublic opinion and public policy? Perhaps one answer lies
in the way rationalityhas been defined,namely
in terms of a liberal-conservativescale on national issues. Although we have found that
Congressionalcandidates' attitudesdo scale unidimensionallyalong a liberal-conservativedimension,there is littleevidence that mass attitudes fall along the same continuum.This suggests not that mass attitudesare in some way
irrationalbut that candidates' attitudesare tc
some extent inconsistentwith the attitudesot
many voters. For example, a voter may be
1972
Another factor weakening the linkage between public opinion and public policy is the
large number of safe districtswhere the challengerhas no realisticchance of winning.27Us-
21
Michael J. Shapiro, "Rational Political Man: A
Synthesis of Economic and Social-Psychological Perspectives," American Political Science Review, 63
(December, 1969), 1106-1119.
"Steven R. Brown and Richard W. Taylor, "Objectivity and Subjectivity in Concept Formation: Problems of Perspective, Partition, and Frames of Reference," paper delivered at the sixty-sixthannual meeting
of the American Political Science Association, Los
Angeles, California, September, 1970.
21 Miller and Stokes, p. 50, report correlations between constituency majority and congressional roll-call
votes of 0.4, and between district majority and nonincumbent candidate attitudes of -0.4, in the social welfare policy domain. This suggests that within the confines of the amount and kind of choice presented, the
masses are indeed selecting those elites whose attitudes
are most congruent with their own. The fact that the
congruency is not higher may be due primarily to the
differing attitudinal structures of elites and nonelites.
I7lf the electorate votes primarily on the basis of
party identification and if these identifications are unevenly distributed within a large percentage of districts, the result is a lack of intradistrict competition.
If this uneven distribution of identifications reflects an
equally uneven distribution of opinions and preferences on issues, then linkage could occur without a
choice of candidates who differin their issue positions.
Therefore the optimal amount of choice in each district would depend on its internal distribution of
opinion. Since data of this nature are not available, this
analysis has focused on the systemic, rather than district,consequences of choice. From this framework, the
more choice, the greater the opportunity for the electorate as a whole to exercise control over policy.
1265
1266
Vol. 66
ForeignPolicy
Score
liberal
moderate-liberal
moderate
mod.-conservative
conservative
Mean
Median
N
most
liberal
N
most
conservative
CivilRights
N
most
liberal
DomesticIssues
N
most
conservative
N
most
liberal
N
most
conservative
36
62
187
90
60
26
42
169
114
84
220
11
106
12
86
181
20
116
24
94
88
104
42
52
149
73
66
41
84
171
435
435
435
435
435
435
4.2
4
4.4
4
3.4
2
3.6
4
8.3
8
9.0
10
receiving scores of five and seven. Both the response sets to which we have assigned a score
of six do lie between the same combinations,
yet we are unable to compare these sets with
each other in terms of liberalism-conservatism.
The best alternative seems to be to equate their
scores on our scale in spite of the fact that the
sets are not intuitively equal. This weakness
in measurement is a consequence of the crudity
of the data.
Because we were interested in the concept of
choice at a general level we desired an overall
measure of choice, not just choice by issue
areas. Therefore the scales of each issue area
were combined into a generalized liberalismconservatism scale. Since it consists of all eight
items, it runs from 8 to 24. The reliability
(split-half)- coefficient, corrected by the Spearman-Brown formula, is 0.91. As for item validity, the average item-whole correlation is 0.74,
well over twice the minimum possible itemwhole correlation. The range is from 0.64 to
0.85. Since there were so few items, we retained all of them. If we had had more items
from which to choose, we could have increased
Table A-1. Domestic Welfare
Scores and ResponseSets
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
4-L
3-L,
3-L,
2-L,
2-L,
2-C,
2-C,
3-C,
4-C
1-0
1-C or 2-L, 2-0
1-0, 1-C or 1-L, 3-0
2-C or 4-0 or 1-L, 2-0, 1-C
1-0, 1-L or 1-C, 3-0
2-0 or 3-C, 1-L
1-0
1972
1267
3. No
1. Yes
2. Other
the average item-wholecorrelationby throwing
out the less valid items. In view of this fact,
Incumbents: H.R. 14765, Civil Rights Act. Deplus the past failureof items to scale across isfeated August 9, 1966, 190-222. Vote of memsue areas, the magnitudeof these validityand
ber on motion to delete Title IV (open housreliabilitycoefficients
is surprising.
ing).
Variation in the amount of choice per dis2. Absent
3. Yea
1. Nay
trict could possibly be a function of the extremenessof the responses.If the incumbentin III. Domestic Welfare
pressuresfromthe
a district is either extremely liberal or ex- A. INFLATION: If inflationary
Viet Nam war absolutely require corrective
tremelyconservative,thereis a chance for that
federal action, would you: (Asked of incumdistrictto have a very high degree of choice.
bents and challengers.)
On the other hand, if the incumbentis a mod1. Oppose cuts in domestic spending as an
erate, thereis no opportunityfor an extremely
anti-inflationarymeasure.
high amount of choice. But since the correla2. Other
tion between extremityof scale position and
3. Support cuts in domestic spending as an
choice is only 0.06, this explanation of variaanti-inflationmeasure.
tion in choice is vitiated.
B.
POVERTY:
1. Oppose cuts
2. Other
3. Favor cuts
2. Other
3. No.
Incumbents: H.R. 14921, Supplemental Appropriations. Passed May. 10, 1966, 192188. Vote of member on amendment to
provide $20 million in rent supplement
contractual authority.
1. Yea
2. Absent. 3. Nay
b) Teacher Corps: Do you support the federally financed Teacher Corps to improve
school education in slums and other impoverished areas, proposed by the Johnson
Administrationand firstauthorized in 1965?
(Asked of challengers only.)
1. Support
2. Other
3. Oppose
2. Absent
3. Oppose
2. Other
3. Oppose
1268
D.
2.- Absent
3. Nay
LABOR
2. Other
3. Oppose
2. Absent
3. Nay
b) Minimum wage: Do you favor the Johnson Administrationproposal to extend minimum wage laws to millions of additional
workers and increase the minimum wage to
$1.60 by the end of the decade?
1. Favor
2. Other
3. Oppose
Incumbents: H.R. 13712, Minimum Wage
Amendments. Passed May 26, 1966, 205194. Vote of member on amendment to delay for one additional year, until February
1, 1969, the second stage of the minimum
wage increase from $1.40 to $1.60 an hour
for workers covered under existing law.
1. Nay
2. Absent
3. Yea
c) Unemployment Compensation: Do you favor the proposals of the Johnson Administration, backed by organized labor, to establish federal standards for unemployment
compensation benefitsthe states must pay,
and to widen coverage of the program?
(Asked of all candidates. The bill referred
to, H.R. 8282, did not survive to the rollcall stage.)
1. Favor
2. Other
3. Oppose
Vol. 66
2. Absent
B.
POVERTY:
C.
GREAT
3. Yea
2. Absent
3. Yea
SOCIETY:
2. Absent
3. Yea
b) Teacher Corps: H.R. 10943, Teacher Education. Defeated June 27, 1967, 146-257.
Vote of member on motion to recommitthe
bill with instructionsto strike the teacher
corps provisions.
1. Nay
2. Absent
3. Yea
2. Absent
3. Yea