World Population, Economic Growth, and Energy Demand, 1990-2100: A Review of Projections

Author(s): Bernard Gilland

Source: Population and Development Review, Vol. 21, No. 3 (Sep., 1995), pp. 507-539
Published by: Population Council
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World Population,
Economic Growth,
and EnergyDemand,
1990-2100: A Review
of Projections
BERNARD

GILLAND

THE PURPOSE OF THIS ARTICLEis to assess some currentprojections of world

population,economicproduct,energyconsumption,carbondioxideemisThe focusand main

sion,and atmosphericcarbondioxideconcentration.
of projectionsmade
referencepoint of the discussionwill be clarification
by the WorldEnergyCouncil (WEC).1 These projectionsare describedin
World(WEC 1993).
Tomorrow's
detailin the reportEnergyfor
The Introductionof the WEC reportstates:'The year 2020 was sethat
forthisCommission,but,recognising
lectedas the main time-horizon
some majorenergyissuesare likelyto come to a head afterthisdate,possibilitiesout to the year 2100 were also considered."Four energyprojectionsfor2020 are given,threeofwhichare extendedto 2100. The report
mentionsthat "manyotherCases could have been considered,with rapThe
idlydiminishingreturns-especiallythose withlong time-horizons."
projectionsfor2020 and one
presentarticledevelopsfoursupplementary
additionalscenariofor2100.
The WEC projectionsare given in termsof primaryenergy,or the
(coal, oil, and
thermalenergyreleasedby the combustionofhydrocarbons
of
energyis
primary
The
unit
naturalgas) and carbohydrates(biomass).
the metricton (tonne) of oil equivalent(toe), equal to 42 gigajoules(GJ).
(A gigajouleequals a billionjoules; a megajoule equals a millionjoules.)
The primaryequivalentof a given amount of nonfossil(hydro,nuclear,
is the amountof thermalenergythatwould be needed to
etc.) electricity
of38.46
powerplantoperatingat an efficiency
generateitin a fossil-fueled
percent(assumed to be the worldaverage). One kilowatthour (kWh, or
is thuscountedas equivalentto 2.60
3.6 megajoules)ofnonfossilelectricity
(TWh) ofnonfossil
kWh (9.36 MJ) ofprimaryenergy.One terawatt-hour
is equal to 0.223 milliontoe (Mtoe) ofprimaryenergy.
electricity
POPULATION

AND DEVELOPMENT

REVIEW

21, NO. 3 (SEPTEMBER

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1995)

507

508

POPULATION,

GROWTH,

AND

ENERGY

Smilhas criticizedthisprocedureon two counts,althoughhe accepts

thatthereis no satisfactory
alternative(Smil 1994). First,the assumedefficiencyshouldbe adjustedannuallywiththe changingefficiency
ofthermal generatingstations.But the efficiency
risein the period 1990-2020 is
unlikelyto be more than a few percentagepoints,as almostall thermal
plantsbuiltafter1980-and manybuiltearlier-will stillbe in servicein
2020, and steam turbineplantsare likelyto remainthe dominanttype.
Second, the procedure"disadvantages"countrieswith a high per capita
hydroelectricity
production(Norway,Sweden,Canada), because itinflates
theirenergyconsumptionin termsofoil equivalent,makingthemappear
less energy-efficient.
But thisapplies onlyto comparisonsbetween countries;at higherlevelsofaggregation(WesternEurope,NorthAmerica)the
effectis small.
The followinggroupingsoftheworld'scountriesare used:
The UN classification
-More developedcountries(MDCs): UnitedStates,Canada, Europe,Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Japan, Australia,and New
Zealand;
-Less developedcountries(LDCs): All othercountries.
The WEC primaryclassification
-Organization forEconomicCooperationand Development(OECD) (excludingMexico,admittedin April1994);
-Central and EasternEurope (CEE) and CIS;
-Developing countries(DCs).
The difference
between the WEC developingcountrycategoryand
the UN less developed countrycategoryis thatthe formerexcludes Turkey,which is a memberof OECD. Both the UN and the WEC classificationscould be improved:Hong Kong,Israel,Singapore,South Korea, and
Taiwan are industrialized
countries;Turkeyand the CentralAsian republics of the CIS (Kazakhstan,Kirgizistan,
Tadjikistan,Turkmenistan,and
Uzbekistan)are developingcountries.However,theseare minordefectsthat
do notaffect
theutility
oftheclassifications
forpreparing
globalprojections.
The WEC secondaryclassification
-North America(Canada and the UnitedStates);
-Latin Americaand the Caribbean;
-Western Europe (includingTurkey);
-Central and EasternEurope;
-CIS (includingall republicsofthe formerSovietUnion);

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BERNARD

509

GILLAND

-Middle East and NorthAfrica;

-Sub-Saharan Africa;
-Pacific (includingJapan,Australia,and New Zealand);
-South Asia.
as the PaThis classification
"cutsacross"the primaryclassification,
cificregionincludesthreeOECD members,the othercountriesof the regionbeingDCs.
The WEC energyprojections
have been computedforeach ofthe nine
and theworld.
forthethreemajorgroupings
regions,
and theresults
aggregated
Population
Populationplays no directpartin calculatingthe energydemand projectionsoftheWEC, because futureenergydemandis consideredto be a function of an assumed rate of economicgrowthand an assumed rate of decline of energyintensity.(The energyintensity
of a countryis itsprimary
energyconsumptiondividedby itsgrossdomesticproduct.)Nevertheless,
it is necessaryto adopt a populationprojectionin orderto make projectionsforGDP per capita,theprincipalindicatoroftheaveragelevel ofeconomicdevelopmentin a countryor region,and to make comparisonsbetweencountriesin termsofenergyconsumptionper capita.
The WEC uses the 1990 UN "medium"projection,accordingto which
the world populationwill increasefrom5,292 millionin 1990 to 8,092
millionin 2020. The 1992 revisionoftheUN "medium"projectionis 8,050
millionin 2020 (UnitedNations1993). The 1992 UN "high,""medium,"
and "low" projectionsforthe MDCs, the LDCs, and the worldin 2020 are
givenin Table 1.
The WEC reporttabulates"high,""medium,"and "low" projections
forworldpopulationin the period1990-2100. The projectionsare shown
in Figure1, togetherwiththecorresponding
variantsoftheUN long-range
projections(UnitedNations1992).
The UN "low" projectionis much lower than the "low" projection
adoptedby theWEC. It is based on the assumptionthattheglobalaverage
TABLE 1 Estimated population in 1990 and
projected population in 2020 (millions)
2020
Region

1990

High

Medium

Low

MDC
LDC

1,211
4,084

1,465
7,033

1,387
6,663

1,295
6,286

World

5,295

8,498

8,050

7,581

SOURCE: UN 1993.

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510

POPULATION,

GROWTH,

AND ENERGY

FIGURE 1 World population projections 1990-2100

High:WEC

20

High: UN

15-

WEC

/Medium:

'co

Medium: UN

10

WEC

/DLow:

10

Low: UN

2000

2020

2050

2075

2100

Year
SOURCES: WEC 1993; UN 1992, 1993

fertility
ratewilldeclineto 1.70 birthsperwoman in 2100-05. Thisimplies
thatat least one-thirdof all women will eitherbe childlessor have only
one child.Fertility
ratesbelow 1.7 alreadyprevailin a numberof OECD
in the former
countries,includingGermany,Italy,and Spain,and fertility
0.75 in the
East Germanyreachedan unprecedentedlow ofapproximately
itmaybe consideredhighly
first
halfof 1993 (Eberstadt1994). Nevertheless,
rate-3.4 in 1985-90-will be
unlikelythat the world average fertility
century.
halvedby the end ofthetwenty-first
The WEC 'high" variant-a worldpopulationof20 billionin 2100cannotbe ruledout,but would be practicallycertainto involvea decline
percapita,and wouldprobin worldaveragefoodand energyconsumptions
ably involve populationstabilizationvia risingmortalityin many countries.However,thiswould be disputedbythosewho believethateconomic
growthand technologicaladvance can overcomethenaturalresourceconstraintsthatsuch a globalpopulationsize would impose.
Cogent argumentshave been advanced on both sides of the world
population-naturalresourcesdebate.Those who hold thatresourcesmust
sooneror laterconstrainpopulationgrowthpointout that:
[M]odernWesterncivilisationcontainsexceptionallystrongand variedinproblem
hibitionsagainstfacingtheidea thata seriouspopulation-resources
materialismgrewnaturallyout ofthe vast
can and does exist.An optimistic

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BERNARD

511

GILLAND

19th-century
successesin bothtechnologicaland geographicexpansion.This
materialism
permeatedequallystrongly
theMarxist-Communist,
theliberalcapitalistand the social-democratic
politicalcreeds.(Politicaland Economic
Planning1955: 307)

Most of those who take thisview would probablyagree with GeorgescuRoegenthatexponentialeconomicgrowthis a "historical
interludecaused
by a unique mineralogical
bonanza" (Georgescu-Roegen1979: 97).
A recentrestatement
of the oppositeview is givenby the civilengineerJohnBreen:
Almost200 yearsago, Malthus,in his "Essay on the Principleof Population",predicteda dire futurebecause he believed growthin food supplies
would be rapidlyout-pacedby a geometricgrowthin population.Withtwo
centuries'hindsight,we know thatMalthuserredseriouslybecause he did
not foreseethe technologicalprogressand ingenuityof a scientific
agriculture.In his foodproductionestimatehe was a PrisoneroftheFamiliar. Today,
thereis similarconcernoverenergyresources.(Breen 1994: 71)

Breen'sstatementis correctas faras itgoes. As agronomistL. T. Evans has

stated,"itis the interactions
and unforeseensynergisms
not onlybetween
[plant]breedingand agronomy,but betweenall the disciplines,thathave
keptMalthusat bay" (Evans 1993: 389). Above all, Malthusfailedto foresee the synergism
betweenchemicalengineeringand plantbreeding,that
is, chemicalnitrogenfixationand the breedingof cerealvarietiesresponsiveto highlevelsoffertilizer
application.
Atone extremeis the ecologists'view thata "quasi-perpetual"demographicand economicequilibriumis necessaryifa globalcatastropheis to
be averted(Hardin1994). At the otherextremeis the view ofthe African
Academyof Sciences (1993) thatthe potentialfor"transforming"
the resourcesavailable to humanityis not necessarilyfinite,so thatno limitcan
be assignedto demographicor economicgrowth;thisrepresentsa touching expressionof faithin the power of science and technologyfromthe
continentin whichtheseforceshave had the least impact.An intermediate view is more plausible:physicallimitsto growthexist,but theyare
elasticand can be forcedupwardby applyingincreasingtechno-economic
pressure.The questionthenarises:Is itreasonableto assumethatthepressure can be increasedindefinitely?
The answer mustbe no, because it is
practicallycertainthat the conditionsnecessaryto maintaineconomic
Theirdisappearancemaybe broughtabout
growthwillnotlastindefinitely.
in
orbyculturalchangesthatprompt
environment
bychanges theterrestrial
ento otherobjectives.Anotherpossibility,
societiesto givehigherpriority
visagedby Fred Hoyle (1963), is global organizationalbreakdownoccasionedby overpopulation.

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512

POPULATION,

GROWTH,

AND

ENERGY

UnitedNationsdemographershave computeda projectionbased on

the assumptionthatthe fertility
ratein each major regionwill remainat
the 1985-90 level. The resultof constantfertility
combinedwith a slow
but steadyincreasein the expectationof lifeat birthwould be a world
populationof 21 billionin 2050, 109 billionin 2100, and 694 billionin
2150. "To many,these data would show veryclearlythatit is impossible
forworldfertility
levels to remainat currentlevels fora long timein the
future,particularly
under assumptionsof continuingmortalityimprovement" (UnitedNations1992: 22). If thisgrowthratecontinued,it would
resultin a populationdensityon the world'sland surfaceequal to thatof
Manhattan (30,000 per square kilometer)by 2200, and "standingroom
only"(4 personsper square meter)by 2330.
The WEC reportpointsout that"populationforecasting
has longbeen
a hazardousbusiness,and the past two centuriesare litteredwitherroneous forecasts.But most of the errorshave been due to underestimating
populationgrowth"(WEC 1993: 44). As a strikingexample,the English
socialphilosopherMichaelRobertsthoughtthat"[w]ithina centuryor so,
theworld'spopulationwillalmostcertainlybe stabilizedat somethinglike
threethousandmillions,whichis the utmostthatthe earthis likelyto be
able to feed" (Roberts1951: 138). Roberts'serrorarose fromhis ecologicallyinspiredbeliefthatchemicalfertilizers
cannotincreasecropyieldson
a sustainablebasis. In addition,he failedto accountforthe difference
betweenaverageper capitafoodconsumptionin 1948 and the consumption
level thatwould lowerpopulationgrowthto zerobecause ofrisingmortality.Even had therebeen no Green Revolution,world populationcould
stillhave increasedto at least4 billionbeforestabilizing.
Accordingto the WEC report,"Official
projectionsof global populationcould easilybe out by 10% by 2020, and 30% (perhapseven 50%) by
2100" (WEC 1993: 83). Nevertheless,
a long-rangeglobal projectioncan
be surprisingly
accurate:The 1957 UN 'medium"projectionforworldpopulation in 2000 was 6,267 million(UN 1958); the 1992 revisionis 6,228
million(UN 1993).
It is reasonableto concludethatthe UN and WorldEnergyCouncil
"medium"projectionsforworldpopulationare morelikelythan theirrespective"high"or "low"variants,even thoughtheyare based on thehighly
in all countrieswillbe at replacement
implausibleassumptionthatfertility
level long beforethe end of the twenty-first
century.Overestimatesfor
some regionswillprobablybe balancedby underestimates
forothers.

Economic growth
The underlyingeconomic assumptionsof the WEC projectionsand the
supplementary
projectionspresentedhere are thateconomicgrowthwill
continuein all majorregionsthroughout
thetwenty-first
century;thateco-

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BERNARD

513

GILLAND

FIGURE 2 Annual increasein grossdomesticproduct

(GDP) per capita and in population: Estimatesfor
1980-90and projectionsfor1990-2020,by world region
5

Pacific

/South

Asia

Western

0,

NorthAmerica

?E

*C~~EroenrladEsenErp\

0 Centraland EasternEurope

*LatinAmerica

0 Estimatedaverage 1980-90
a' Projectedaverage 1990-2020: cases B, B1, C
1

-2
0

and NorthAfricas
Sub-Saharan Afric

1
2
Annual increase in population (percent)

SOURCE: WEC 1993

nomic growthratesin the less developed countrieswill exceed those in

themoredevelopedcountries;and thateconomicgrowthrateswillexceed
populationgrowthratesin all regions.It is, of course,possiblethatthese
assumptionswillnot hold,but to make otherassumptionswould stipulate
reversalsof the trendsince the 1950s. Furthermore,
arbitrary
it would be
naive to assumethatthepeople ofanycountry,even thewealthiest,would
willinglyacceptan annual reductionin purchasingpower simplybecause
a reductionmaybe forcedupon themat some indeterminate
futuretime.
Even thosewho acceptthateconomicequilibriumor declineis inevitable
sooneror laterwould presumablypreferit to be later.
Figure2 shows ratesof growthof grossdomesticproduct(GDP) per
capita and populationin each of the nine WEC regionsin 1980-90, and
thecorresponding
WEC Case B, B1, and C projectionsfor1990-2020. (Case
B is thebase case or referencescenario.)
For a givenrateof GDP growth,the rateofgrowthof GDP per capita
will obviouslyvaryinverselywith the rate of populationgrowth.It does

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514

POPULATION,

GROWTH,

AND ENERGY

not follow,however,thatgrowthof GDP per capitawould necessarilybe

acceleratedby a decreasein the rateof populationgrowth.Nevertheless,
based on a varietyof economicarguments,it is commonlyexpectedthat
thereis a negativecorrelation
betweengrowthofGDP percapitaand populationgrowth.As Figure2 shows,the correlationis negative,but it is not
veryhigh.Furthermore,
forreasonsthathave notbeen elucidated,thenegativecorrelationdidnot appearuntilthe 1980s.
The WEC assumesthatthe 1990-2020rateofGDP growthin theMDCs
will be 2.4 percent.Two values are adopted forthe LDCs: 5.6 percentin
Case A (the "high"variant)and 4.6 percentin Cases B, B1, and C. I will
supplementthesevalues by "high"and "low" variantsforthe MDCs and a
"low" variantfortheLDCs.
It is reasonableto adopt 2.8 percentand 2.0 percentforthe "high"
and "low" MDC rates,and 3.6 percentforthe "low" LDC rate.Economist
GeorgeStolnitzholds thatthereare "mountingindicationsthatthe third
quarterof thiscenturywill turnout to have been a one-time,relatively
'golden' age ofproductivity
uptrends,incomeadvances,and foreigntrade
expansionsin many developedand newly developingnations,"and that
"numerousunrepayablethirdworlddebtsituations'have an unfavorable
effect
on prospectsforprivatesectorcapitalflowsto themostcapital-starved
partsof the world (Stolnitz1992: 178). If such evaluationsprove to be
correct,GDP growthratescouldbe even lowerthanthe "low" values given
above.
The OECD Secretariatconsidersan averageeconomicgrowthratein
the range2.5-3.0 percentas the mostlikelyscenarioforthe OECD countriesin the period 1995-2000, and contendsthata growthrateexceeding
2.5 percentis necessaryifa reductionin unemployment
is to be achieved
(OECD 1994).

Each ofthethreeGDP growthratescan be combinedwitheach ofthe

threepopulationgrowthratesto givenine variantsforgrowthof GDP per
capitain theMDCs and ninein theLDCs. Theseare shownin Figure3. For
the combinationLH-HL (low populationgrowthand highGDP growthin
the MDCs, the reversein the LDCs), the ratioof GDP per capita in the
MDCs to thatin the LDCs-approximately7 in 1990 accordingto WEC
data-would rise to 9 in 2020; forthe combinationHL-LH it would declineto 3. The middlecombination,MM-MM, would resultin a declineto
5. A GDP growthrate of 3.6 percentin the LDCs and 2.4 percentin the
MDCs would leave the ratiounchanged(assumingthe same population
growthvariantforboth).
Energy intensity
Energyintensity(El) is definedas primaryenergyconsumption(PEC) per
unitofgrossdomesticproduct.FuturePEC in a regionis estimatedby the

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FIGURE 3 Projected annual increasesin GDP per capita under

alternativeassumptionsas to the rate of population growth
and the rate of growth in GDP: MDCs and LDCs, 1990-2020.

Also shown are 1980-90estimatedvalues of these variablesfor

threecountrygroupings.

LDCs
4

3-

3
MDCs

~~MDCs:

GDP growth4.6%

*
QOECD 1980-90

a.
O

GDP growth5.6%

GDP growth2.8%

._

GDP growth2.4%

GDP growth3.6%
LDCs 1980-90

GDP growth2.0%

*CEE/CIS 1980-90

1
Annual increase in population (percent)

SOURCES:WEC 1993;UN 1993;text

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516

POPULATION,

GROWTH,

AND ENERGY

FIGURE 4 Annual increase in primaryenergy

consumption(PEC) and in GDP: Estimatesfor1980-90
and projectionsfor1990-2020,by world region
Middle East and NorthAfrica

6
South As

H~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Latin America

Sub-Saharan Africa

1Western
H

I'.4x

Europe
NorthAmrenca

0
0 Estimatedaverage 1980-90

-1

-2

* Centraland
EasternEurope

Projectedaverage 1990-2020: Case B

IIII
2

Annual increase in GDP (percent)

SOURCE: WEC 1993

WEC on the basis ofan assumedrateof GDP growthand an assumedrate

ofchangeofEl. For example,ifthe GDP growthrateis 2.4 percentand the
rateofchangein El is -2.0 percent,thePEC growthrateis
1.024 _ 1 =.0039,
1.020
or 0.39 percent.
ofenergydemand(EED)
An alternativemethodis to use theelasticity
insteadoftherateofchangein El. EED is definedas theratioofPEC growth
to GDP growth.For example,ifthe GDP growthrateis 2.4 percentand the
EED is 0.16, thePEC growthrateis 0.024 X0.16 = 0.0038, or 0.38 percent.
PEC and GDP growthratesin 1980-90 in each of the nine WEC regions,and the Case B projectionsfor1990-2020, are shownin Figure4.
The GDP growthrate,the PEC growthrate,the rateof change in El,
the values of any two deterand the EED are by definitioninterrelated;

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BERNARD

517

GILLAND

FIGURE 5 Average annual rates of increase in GDP and in primary

energyconsumption(PEC), and isoquants forspecifiedvalues of the
rate of change in energyintensity(El) and of the elasticityof energy
demand (EED): Estimatesfor 1980-90and projectionsfor1990-2020
under alternativescenarios
Rate of change in EI (percent)
0

EED = 1.0
v

Estimatedaverage 1980-90, world regions

U 1990-2020: LDCs

A,E,E1!
A

*LDCs

1990-2020: OECD and CEE/CIS

-2

i1!

U~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~

ILl~

~~~~~~~~~D

-1: 'r'V

E:

ll:

IOECD

2
3
4
Annual increasein GDP (percent)

NOTE:Scenarios
A,B, B 1,and C stipulated
bytheWorldEnergy
Council
SOURCES:WEC 1993andauthor'scalculations;
see discussion
in text.

minethe values ofthe remainingtwo (exceptthata zero rateofchangein

EI impliesan EED of 1.0 and is compatiblewithany value of GDP or PEG
growth).Valuesofthefourparameters
foreach ofthethreeprimary
country
groupsin 1980-90 are shownin Figure5. The fourWEC scenariosfor19902020 are also shown;the OECD and CEE/CIShave been combinedto form
one group.
Case A is based on rapideconomicgrowthin the developingcountries.Case B assumesa moderaterateofGDP growth.Case B 1 is based on
a lowerrateofEl declinein the CEE/CISand the LDCs. Case C is the "eco-

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518

POPULATION,

GROWTH,

AND ENERGY

logicallydriven"scenario,in which veryhigh ratesof El decline are assumedin all regions.

Risingoil and naturalgas priceswould acceleratethe rateof decline
in El or slow therateofGDP growthin theimporting
countries.The InternationalEnergyAgencypredictsthatthepriceofcrudepetroleum(in constantdollars)will risefromUS$17 per barrel(bbl) in 1995 to $28/bblin
2010 (IEA 1994). The InstitutFrancaisdu Petrolepredictedin 1993 that
the extractioncost fromland-basedrigswill declinefrom$8/bblto $6 in
the long term;fromoffshore
rigsfrom$12 to $8; fromdeep-sea rigsfrom
$30 to $ 15. Oil pricescan risewhileextraction
costsfallbecause theformer
are determinedby supplyand demand.Tax revenuesfromthe sale ofpetroleumproductsin the oil-importing
MDCs now greatlyexceed the cost
oftheproducts;forexample,thepriceofgasolineat fillingstationsin Denmarkis eighttimesthe importcost includingfreight.
This situationmay
lead to efforts
by producersto secure a largershare of the pricepaid by
consumers,and thusto a risein prices.
The WEC scenariosneed to be supplementedby a low-growthscenarioin whichthe GDP growthratesin the OECD/CEE/CISand the developingcountriesare 2.0 percentand 3.6 percentrespectively,
and a highgrowthscenarioin whichthegrowthratesare 2.8 percentand 5.6 percent
respectively.
Theyare shownas scenariosD, D1, E, and El in Figure5. For
scenariosD and E, ratesofenergyintensity
declineequal to thoseofB and
A respectively
have been assumed. For scenariosDl and El, elasticityof
energydemand values equal to those of scenariosB and A respectively
have been assumed.
Energy consumption in 2020
The WEC and thesupplementary
projectionsforprimaryenergyconsumptionin 2020 are shownin Figure6. Theyhave been calculatedbyapplying
the assumed ratesof changein grossdomesticproductand energyintensityto the 1990 primaryenergyconsumption,also shownin the figure.
The International
AtomicEnergyAgency(IAEA) has published"high"
and "low" projectionsforprimaryenergyconsumptionin the years2000,
2005, 2010, and 2015 (IAEA 1993). The projectionsare based on "a compromiseamongthenationalprojectionssuppliedby each countryfora recent OECD/NEA study,the indicatorsof developmentpublishedby the
WorldBank in itsWorldDevelopmentReportof 1992, and the estimates
ofenergy,electricity,
and nuclearpowergrowthcontinuouslycarriedout
by theInternationalAtomicEnergyAgency"(p. 6). The projectionscan be
extrapolatedto 2020 by assumingthatthe 2010-15 trendcontinueslinearly.The "high"projectionfor2020 is then 14.0 gigatonsof oil equivalent (Gtoe), the "low" 12.5 Gtoe.The mean ofthetwo figures,13.25 Gtoe,
is close to the WEC Case B figureof 13.4 Gtoe.The IAEA projectionsex-

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519

GILLAND

BERNARD

FIGURE 6 Primaryenergyconsumption(PEC) in gigatons

of oil equivalent (Gtoe): Estimatesfor1990and projected
figuresin 2020 under alternativescenarios,by world
regions
20
18-

10.3
10.3
~~~~~~~~~~~10.3

16
8.9
146.8

12

5.7

51
r06.1

2.9

~6

lo

5,9~~~~~~~~~~~i

202 -

sso

2
0

D
1990

Dl1

Bi1

El

2020-

NOTE: Scenarios A, B, B 1, and C stipulatedby the World EnergyCouncil

SOURCES: WEC 1993 and author's calculations;see discussionin text

clude noncommercialfuels,but use a highervalue forworldoil consumpbetweenthebasetionthanthe value adoptedby theWEC; the difference
yearPECs is small.
The IAEA does not give separateprojectionsforthe OECD countries
or forthe MDCs, but the mean ofthe extrapolatedIAEA 'high" and 'low"
projectionsforNorthAmerica,WesternEurope,and CEE/CISis 5.9 Gtoe,
identicalwiththeWEC Case B projectionfortheseregions.
In an earlierarticle,I developed a projectionforworld energyconsumptionin 2020 (Gilland 1988). The projectionincludes fossilfuels,
but excludesbiomass.The underlynuclearenergy,and hydroelectricity,
ingassumptionsincludeGDP growthratesof2.0 percentin the MDCs, 4.0
percentin China,and 3.0 percentin all othercountries.A value of 1.2 for
elasticityof energydemandin the LDCs (excludingChina) was used. The
resultwas an energyconsumptionof 13.15 Gtoe,withthe MDCs accountingfor7.67 Gtoe.

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520

POPULATION,

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I now investigatethe sources of the projectedenergysupply.The

breakdownof worldprimaryenergyconsumptionin 1990, by sources,is
givenin Table 2. The followingsectionsdiscusstheWEC estimatesforeach
energysource.The projectionsforPEC by sourcesare shownin Figure7.
Renewable energy
The WEC considersrenewableenergysourcesunderthreeheadings:
1 Hydroelectricity.
2 Traditionalbiomass(fuelwood,cropresidues,dung).
3 "New" renewables(alcohol,bagasse,biogas,geothermal,smallhydro,solar,wind,and ocean thermal).
The projectedcontributions
oftheseclassesofenergysourceto PEC in 2020
are shownin Table 3.
In Case B, consideredthemostlikelyoutcome,renewableenergywill
provide2.8 Gtoe. Withhighertotalenergydemand (Cases A and B 1), it
will provide3.1 Gtoe; withstronggovernmentsupportfor"new" renewable sources,it will also provide3.1 Gtoe because the contributions
from
hydroand traditionalsourcesare assumed to be lower than in the other
Cases.
Aftermorethan 100 yearsofdevelopment,hydropowerreachedthe
annual level of0.46 Gtoe.After40 yearsofdevelopment,nuclearreached
0.44 Gtoe.It is therefore
ofthe new
unlikelythatthe annual contribution
TABLE 2 Worldprimaryenergyconsumption:
Milliontons of oil equivalent (Mtoe), 1990
Energysource
Fossil fuels
Oil
Coal and lignite
Naturalgas

6,810
2,773
2,319
1,718

Renewableenergy
"Traditional"biomass
Large hydroelectric
plants

"Modem"biomass
Smallhydroelectric
plants

1,560
930
464

120
20

Solar

12

Wind

Geothermal

12

Nuclear energy
Total primaryenergy
SOURCE: WEC 1993.

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441
8,811

BERNARD

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GILLAND

FIGURE 7 Primary energy consumption (PEC) in

gigatons of oil equivalent (Gtoe): Estimates for 1990
and projected figures in 2020 under alternative
scenarios, by source of energy
20
18

7 New renewables
6 Traditionalbiomass

5 Hydro

16

4 Nuclear
3 Coal

14 -

2 Natural gas

12
10
8

4~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~4
34

4~~~~~~~~~~~"'
2
0
1990

DlI

202

BI

El1

NOTE: Scenarios A, B, Bi, and C stipulatedby the World EnergyCouncil

SOURCES: WEC 1993; text

renewables will increase from 0.16 to 1.35 Gtoe in 30 years. The Case B
estimate forthe new renewables-0.54 Gtoe-is much more plausible.
Nuclear energy
The contribution of nuclear energy in 2020 is estimated by the WEC at
0.98 Gtoe in Cases A and B 1, 0.79 Gtoe in Case B, and 0.69 Gtoe in Case C.
As total electricityconsumption in Case B is 23,000 TWh (5.13 Gtoe),
nuclear energy is projected to provide 15 percent of world electricityin
2020, compared with 17 percent in 1990.
The WEC projections fornuclear energy can be compared with those
of the InternationalAtomic EnergyAgency. By extrapolatingthe IAEA projections for2015 on the assumption that the 2010-15 trend continues linearly, we obtain a "high" estimate of 0.91 Gtoe and a "low" estimate of
0.52 Gtoe for 2020. The "high" estimate reflects"a moderate revival of
nuclear power development that could occur in light of a more compre-

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522

POPULATION,

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TABLE 3 Projections for nonfossil energy

consumption in 2020 under 8 different
scenarios: Gigatons of oil equivalent (Gtoe)
Energysource

BI

Hydroelectricity
Traditionalbiomass
New renewables
Nuclear

1.00
1.32
0.81
0.98

0.99
1.32
0.81
0.98

0.92
1.32
0.54
0.79

0.66
1.06
1.35
0.69

Total

4.11

4.10

3.57

3.76

El

DI

Hydroelectricity
Traditionalbiomass
New renewables
Nuclear

1.0
1.3
0.8
1.0

1.0
1.3
0.8
1.0

0.9
1.3
0.3
0.8

0.9
1.3
0.3
0.8

Total

4.1

4.1

3.3

3.3

SOURCE: WEC 1993; fora descriptionof the scenariossee text.

hensiveassessmentof the macroeconomicand environmentalimpactsof

the different
optionsavailable forelectricity
generation";the "low" estimate reflects"a continuationofthepresenttrendofnuclearpower developmentstagnationdue to publicoppositionand slowlyincreasingelectricitydemand in OECD countries,institutional
and socio-politicaltransition
in Centraland EasternEuropeand lack offundingavailabilityin developingcountries"(IAEA 1993: 6).
It has been arguedthatthe "publicopposition"to nuclearenergyhas
been createdand maintainedby groupswhose motivesare primarily
pocamlitical:"Firstand foremost,
the underlyingthrustofthe anti-nuclear
paignis not about energy;itis about enmityto technology,
industry,
profitsand freeenterprise.Nuclearpower is the ideal surrogatetargetsought
It is vulout by the coercivecollectivists
of the intellectualestablishment.
and menacing,and
nerableto scarecampaignspresentingit as mysterious
opposing it makes people appear moral-above all to themselves"
(Beckmann1989). But government
policyin theformerSovietUnionwas
cannotarriveat a consenstrongly
pro-nuclear;even coercivecollectivists
sus on thisissue.
The oppositionto nuclearpower plantsis ostensiblybased on three
assumptions:
1 Nuclearreactorsare unsafein operation:To thisit mustbe replied
thatthe risksare farlowerthanmanythatare acceptedwithoutquestion.
A. Scargill,presidentoftheNationalUnionofMineworkers(UK), statedat
a publicinquirythathe would be reconciledto nuclearenergyifit could
be provedthatnot one personwould everbe killedby the use of nuclear

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BERNARD

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GILLAND

power (Fremlin1989: 300). Thisis a remarkablestatementfroma representativeof an industrythatcoststhe lives of 11,000 minersper year in
accidentsworldwide(ILO 1995). To demand zero riskis to demand the
cessationofall humanactivity.
2 Nuclearreactorsproduceradioactivewastethatcannotbe disposed
ofsafely:A politicalsolutionforthepermanentdisposalofhigh-levelwaste
will have to be found,as severalthousandtons of it existand cannotbe
Once a solutionhas been found,disposstoredin steel tanksindefinitely.
ingofadditionalamountsshouldpresentno specialproblem.The problem
is basicallyone ofovercomingtheNIMBY (Notin My Back Yard) syndrome
The technicalproblem
when designatinga locationfora waste depository.
was solvedlong ago.
3 The plutoniumin the spentfuelfromnuclearreactorscan be extractedand used fornuclearweapons; the greaterthe numberof reactors,
To producea plutothe greaterthe riskofnuclearweapons proliferation:
niumbomb requiresnot onlya reactor,but also a nuclearfuelreprocessing plant and a supplyof spentfuelthathas been prematurelyremoved
froma reactor,thatis, removedbeforemore than a small fractionof the
to nonfissileisotopes
fissileplutonium (Pu-239) has been transformed
(mainlyPu-240). The riskofweapons-gradeplutoniumbeingproducedin
Treatyis minimizedbyinternational
contravention
oftheNon-Proliferation
inspectionof nuclearinstallations.But even the closingdown of all reacresourcesfrom
torscouldnotpreventa countrywithadequate engineering
buildinga uranium(U-235) bomb ifit wishedto do so. All thatis necessaryis a supplyof naturaluranium (which contains0.7 percentU-235)
and an isotope-separating
plant.Each of the fiveopenlynuclearweapons
nuclearpowerplantwas combomblongbeforeitsfirst
statestesteditsfirst
missioned.
The WEC takes a more optimisticview of the futureof nuclear endriven"
ergyin themediumtermthandoes theIAEA;even the"ecologically
Case C is based on a highernuclear contributionthan the extrapolated
IAEA "low" projection.
Fossil fuels

projectionsforcoal, oil, and naturalgas

The WEC and the supplementary
in
in
2020
are
Table 4. It can be seen thatthe Case A
shown
consumption
projectionsforoil and naturalgas are consideredto be close to the practical limit.
The verylargeincreasesin coal consumptionassumedin Cases A, E,
and El make theseprojectionsimplausible.A continuationofthe 1982-89
trendto 2020 would resultin a coal consumptionof 3.6 Gtoe. Coal consumptionpeaked at 2.26 Gtoe in 1989 and declinedto 2.15 Gtoe in 1994
(BP 1995).

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POPULATION,

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TABLE 4 Projections for fossil energy

consumption in 2020 under 8 different

scenarios:Gigatonsof oil equivalent (Gtoe)

Energy source

3.8
4.5
3.6

3.0
3.8
3.0

2.1
2.9
2;5

13.1

11.9

9.8

7.5

El

DI

2.6
3.5
2.8

2.0
3.0
2.7

8.9

7.7

Coal
Oil

4.85
4.6

Natural gas

3.65

Total

Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Total

5.95
4.6
3.65
14.2

BI

5.05
4.6
3.65
13.3

SOURCE: WEC 1993; fora descriptionofthe scenariossee text.

Energy consumption in 2100

The WEC

report includes

illustrative

extensions

of Cases

A, B, and C to the

year 2100. The energy sources are classed in four groups: fossil fuels, nuclear,

hydroelectricityand traditionalbiomass, and new renewables. The projections for 2100 are shown in Figure 8, together with an extension of Case
D. To assess the plausibilityof the WEC projections, I consider the developable potentials of each of the four categories of energy source in the
period up to 2100.
Fossil fuels
The WEC gives the proved reserves of coal and lignitein 1990 as 606 Gtoe,
and of oil and natural gas as 245 Gtoe. The correspondingfiguresfor"ultimately recoverable resources" are 3,400 and 1,000 Gtoe respectively.
The maximum estimate forthe recoverable reserves of oil and natural gas is 1,000 Gtoe. The cumulative consumption of oil and natural gas
fromthe sinkingof the firstoil wells in 1857 up to 1990 is estimated at 126
Gtoe (WEC 1993). The total amount that will be recovered from 1857 to
the exhaustion of the reserves will thereforebe taken as 1,126 Gtoe. By
assuming that the consumption curve will be symmetricalabout its peak,
that is, that the cumulative consumption will be 563 Gtoe prior to reaching the peak and 563 Gtoe fromthe peak to the exhaustion of the reserves,
oil and natural gas consumption can be extrapolated to 2100. These extrapolations are shown in Figure 9. (Case C is not shown, as it is assumed
in that projection that consumption reaches zero before the reserves are
exhausted.)

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BERNARD

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GILLAND

FIGURE 8 Projected global primary energy consumption

(PEC) in gigatons of oil equivalent (Gtoe) by source in 2100
according to alternative scenarios
45
40
10.1
35

30

2.9
8.6

25

~~~~~~~~~~~4212.2

20
15

2.0

New
renewables

4.0

Hydroand
trad.biomass 10.0

9.2

4.0
Nuclear

10

16.8

4.8
5

sLX~~I
=13?
10.0

Fossil fuels

2.2

1.

0~~~~~~3

LX

SOURCE: WEC 1993; see discussionin text

It is clear fromFigure9 thatoil and naturalgas consumptioncannot

be expectedto exceed 6 Gtoe in 2100. (If exploitationof the 400 Gtoe of
shale oil-included in the 1,000 Gtoeestimate-provesuneconomicor environmentally
unacceptable,consumptionwould be considerablylower.)
It is difficult
to believethatcoal and lignitewillprovidemuchmorethan 5
Gtoe (7 billiontons of coal equivalent)in 2100, althoughFrischhas projected 6.5 Gtoe in 2060 (Frisch1986). A plausible-and fairlyoptimisticestimateforfossilfuelconsumptionin 2100 is 10 Gtoe,of which roughly
halfis providedbycoal and lignite.Thisis close to the extensionofCase B,
and is incorporatedin the extensionofCase D.
Nuclearenergy
The maximumrate of completionof nuclearpower plantsworldwidein
the nextfewdecades is unlikelyto exceed 60 GWe ofelectricalgenerating
capacityper year. (The Frenchaveragein 1982-92 was 4 GWe per year;
the world'snuclearconstruction
capabilitycan be estimatedat roughly15
timesthat of France.) The designservicelifeof a reactoris currently40

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526

POPULATION,

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AND ENERGY

FIGURE 9 Estimated global consumption of oil

and natural gas in gigatons of oil equivalent
(Gtoe), 1900-90, and projections for 1990-2100
10

8_~~~~~~~~.

. ...,

A1

0
2

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

SOURCE: See discussionin text

years,but the targetservicelifeof the next generationof reactors,under

developmentby Framatomeand Siemens,is 60 years.Ifit is assumedthat
the servicelifewill rise to 60 yearsand thereafter
remainat thatfigure,
and thatthe construction
rateaverages60 GWe per year,the maximum
nucleargeneratingcapacityattainablein 2100 would be 3,600 GWe.
A powerplantof 1 GWe generatingcapacity,operatingat a load-factorof 75 percent(typicalfornuclearplants),produces6.57 TWh of electo 1.46 Mtoe ofprimaryenergy.A nuclear
tricity
peryear.Thiscorresponds
capacityof 3,600 GWe would thusprovide5.3 Gtoeper year.
Because of uraniumsupplylimits,a rapidlyincreasingproportionof
the reactorsbuiltafterworldnuclearcapacitypasses 1,000 GWe willhave
to be fastbreederreactors(FBRs), which can produce at least 50 times
(theoretically,
up to 100 times)as much energyfroma given amount of
The construction
cost per MWe of
naturaluraniumas thermalreactors.2
of
a
thermal
an FBR is much higherthan that
reactor;althoughthe cost
betweenthetwo reactortypes
willdiminish,an appreciablecostdifference
willremain.
FourFBRsare in operationin theformerSovietUnion,twoin France,
in theRussianFederation.A
and one in Japan;two are underconstruction

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B ERNARD GILLAND

prototypeFBR is at the designstagein India,and China has announcedits

intentionto constructan experimentalFBR (IAEA 1994). The BritishprototypeFBR was shut down in 1994 after19 yearsof operation.The German FBR is to be dismantledafterthe governmentof North RhineWestphaliarefusedto issue an operatingpermitforpoliticalreasons.Plans
forthe ClinchRiver(Tennessee)FBR were abandonedin the 1980s.
Ifthe fusionof deuteriumand lithiumnuclei can be made to yielda
net energygain,fusionreactorswillbecomefeasible.It is unlikelythatthe
deploymentof fusionreactorscan be sufficiently
rapid to make the fast
breederreactorsuperfluous,but it is possiblethatfusionreactorswill be
used forconverting
uranium-238to plutonium-239forfuelingthermalreactors,further
reducingtheneed forFBRs.
The International
Thermonuclear
Experimental
Reactor(ITER)project,
launched in 1988, is aimed at demonstrating
the feasibility
of controlled
nuclearfusion.It is intendedto producea designfora reactorcapable of
sustainingfusionin a magnetically
confineddeuterium-tritium
plasma for
1,000 seconds. If the reactoris eventuallybuilt,it may be followedby a
commercialprototypearound 2025 (Butler 1994). If ITER fails,funding
forfusionresearch-currently
at $1.5 billionper year-will be drastically
reduced(Butler1994).
In thispresentation
I willtakethemaximumachievablenucleargeneratingcapacityin 2100 as 2,500 GWe, corresponding
to 3.7 Gtoe of primaryenergy.The nuclearcontributions
in Cases A and B mustbe consideredhighlyunrealistic.3
Hydroelectricity
and traditional
biomass
The energydissipatedannuallybytheworld'sriversis approximately
80,000
TWh. About 15 percentof it could be harnessed;the developablehydropower potentialof 12,000 TWh correspondsto 2.7 Gtoe per year (WEC
1977). Althoughitis practically
certainthatthe entirepotentialwillnever
be developed,betweenhalfand two-thirds
willlikelybe developedby2 100.4
The theoreticalmaximumsustainableproductionof the world'sforestshas been estimatedat 5.4 billiontonsofdrywood peryear(Windhorst
1979). Thiscorresponds
to 2.2 Gtoeperyear.Burningcropresidues(chiefly
straw)as fuelcould ultimately
providean additional1 to 1.5 Gtoeperyear.
The totalproductionof thisgroupof energysourcesis thusveryunlikelyto exceed the Case C figureof4.8 Gtoein 2100. The Case B figureof
4.2 Gtoeis moreplausible.
New renewableenergysources
The theoreticalpotentialofsolarenergy,thatis,the conversionto electricityofsolarradiationincidenton the Earth'ssurface,is fargreaterthanthe

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POPULATION,

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potentialsofall theotherenergysourcesin thiscategorycombined(Nitsch

1994). As thisarticleis not a comprehensivereviewof energytechnologies,the discussionof new renewableenergysourcesis confinedto solar
energy.
The areas suitableforsolar power plantsare level, stonydesertsin
thearidtropics.These areas total1.9 millionsquare kilometers,
two-thirds
ofthemin NorthAfricaand the MiddleEast (Nitsch1994). The mean insolationin thearidtropicsis 250 W/m2;theglobalaverageis 160 W/m2.
Solar chimneyscould be used to collectenergyon verylargeareas. A
solarchimneyconsistsofa circulararrayofglasspanels witha chimneyat
the center.The air underthe panels is heatedby the sun (the greenhouse
effect)and flowsfromthe peripheryto the centerand up the chimney,in
whichwindturbinesare installed.Withdoubleglazingand a chimney1,500
meters(m) high,an efficiency
of2.4 percentis attainable(Schlaich 1994).
An installation5 km in diameterwould producean averagepower of 120
megawatts(MW), or 0.23 Mtoe per year.
If the solar energyincidenton the entire1.9 millionkm2were convertedat 2.4 percentefficiency,
productionof solar electricity
would be
100,000 TWh,or 22 Gtoe ofprimaryenergy.Usinga different
methodof
calculation,Nitschestimatesthe solarpotentialat 20 Gtoe (Nitsch1994).
Ifsolarchimneyswere the sole typeofconversioninstallation,
itwould be
necessaryto double-glazean area almostthreetimesthe size ofTexas and
to build 100,000 chimneys,each almostfourtimesthe heightofthebuildingsofthe New YorkWorldTradeCenter.Clearlythisis a taskthatwould
have to extendoverseveralhundredyears.
A solarchimneywith 14,000 m2ofpanels and a 200 m chimneywas
builtin Spain,operatedfrom1983 to 1989, and subsequentlydismantled.
Its average power was 5 kW, in agreementwith the calculated value
(Schlaich 1994).
The WEC considersthat"solarsystemsare notas well adaptedto concentratedurban uses as more disperseduses, and attemptsto overcome
thisproblemwithhuge parabolicmirrorsand solar chimneys(whichare
not the main thrustof recentdevelopmentsor currentprospects)should
be avoided" (WEC 1993: 96).
The prospectforsolar chimneysis not bright,and large-scalesolar
powerproduction,ifitbecomesfeasible,is almostcertainto be based on a
different
principlefromthe one describedabove. One possibilityis the
unaeroelectrictower,inventedby PhillipCarlsonin 1965 and currently
der investigation
at the Israel Instituteof Technology.Whereas the solar
chimneygeneratesan upward flowof heated air, the aeroelectrictower
generatesa downwardflowofcooled air.The air is cooled by the evaporation of seawater,pumped to the top of the tower,and sprayedthrough
atomizers.It has been calculatedthata tower1,000 m highand 500 m in
diameterwould producean averagepowerof450 MW. As the heat ofva-

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529

B ERNARD GILLAND

porizationof waterat 300 C is 675 kWh per metricton, and the overall
efficiency
is 0.9 percent,the net electricaloutputwould be 6 kWhper cubic meterof water,and the annual waterconsumptionof a 450 MW in650 millioncubicmeters.If the capital
stallationwould be approximately
producedwould
costofsuch an installationwere $1 billion,the electricity
cost3 centsper kWh (excludingthe costofpumpingwaterfromthe sea to
the base of the plant and of pumpingbrine fromthe plant to the sea).
Whetherthisoptimisticevaluationis realisticremainsto be seen. A pilot
plantmaybe in operationby 1997 (Zaslavsky1994).
generationis the
Anotherpossibilityforlarge-scalesolar electricity
troughcollectorpowerplant,in whichsolarradiationis concentratedon a
tube located at the focusof a seriesof parabolicmirrors.The tube transto a boiler,whichsupplies
portsa fluid,the heat fromwhichis transferred
steamto a turbine.Severalplantsofthistypehave been builtin southern
California;thelargesthas a collectingarea of464,000 m2and a peak power
of 80 MWe. Because the peak power is available onlyfrom8 am to 4 pm
frommid-Aprilto mid-August,
solarheat is supplementedby naturalgas.
The annual average outputis 29MWe, of which naturalgas provides25
outputof410 kWh/M2
correspondsto
percent.The annual solarelectricity
a conversionefficiency
of approximately17 percent.The costper kWh is
Anaround 10 cents,almost double that of fossilor nuclear electricity.
othertypeof solar thermalplantis the power tower,in whichsun-tracking mirrors(heliostats)concentratesolar radiationon a receiverlocated
in the same way as in the
atop a tower.The heat is convertedto electricity
parabolictroughplant.A 10 MWe power towerwas builtin California's
Mojave Desertin 1982. It was closed down in 1988 aftersix yearsof operationas a researchproject.The construction
cost per installedkilowatt
was $14,000, almostfivetimesthatofthe 80 MWe parabolictroughplant
builtin the Mojave in 1989.
is an alternative
Photovoltaicconversionofsolarenergyto electricity
to the thermalconversioninstallationsdescribedabove. When a cell containinga thindiscofcrystalline
siliconis exposedto sunlight,a directcurofapproxirentofup to one voltis generatedwitha conversionefficiency
mately20 percent.Arraysofphotovoltaiccellscan be connectedto forma
to a high-voltagealterpowerplant,the directcurrentbeingtransformed
natingcurrent.The cells are expensive,however,and the rateof cost declinehas not been as rapidas expected.Cells thatincorporatea thinlayer
of 10 percent
of amorphoussiliconare much cheaper,and an efficiency
are
has recentlybeen achieved.Amorphoussiliconcells of thisefficiency
scheduledto go into commercialproductionin 1995; the US Department
of Energypredictsthattheywill lower the cost of photovoltaicelectricity
to 12 to 16 centsperkWh,lessthanhalfthecurrentprice(Beardsley1994).
A planned 100 MW amorphoussiliconcell powerplantin Nevada maybe
in operationby 2005.

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POPULATION,

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The currentworlddemandforincreasedphotovoltaicgeneratingcapacityis 70 MW per year,or one forty-thousandth

ofworldelectricalgeneratingcapacity.The relatively
shortservicelifeofphotovoltaiccells-about
20 years-will have to be increasedconsiderably
iftheyare everto makea
significant
contribution
to worldenergyproduction.
A major disadvantageof the large-scalegenerationof solar electricity-photovoltaicas wellas thermal-withoutfossil-fuel
backupis theneed
forenergystorage.The methodusuallyenvisaged-conversionofelectricityto hydrogenby electrolysis
and reconversionto electricity
by fuelcells
or gas turbines-is extremelyexpensiveand mayneverbecome economical (Gilland1990).
The ultimatehigh-technology
solarenergysystemis thepower satellite,firstsuggestedby P. E. Glaserin 1968. It consistsofan arrayofphotovoltaiccellsassembledin space and placedin geosynchronous
orbit(a circle
witha radiusof 42,165 km in the plane of the equator), so thatit is stationaryrelativeto any pointon Earth.The electricaloutputof the cellsis
convertedto microwaves,which are beamed to Earth,collectedby a receiver(rectifying
antenna),and reconvertedto electricity.
As the cells aloverfive
waysfacethe sun,theywould receive1,370W/m2continuously,
timesthe mean insolationat the Earth'ssurfacein the arid tropics.The
power outputwould be uninterrupted
formostof the year,but when the
Earthis at or near an equinox it eclipsesa geosynchronoussatelliteonce
perday; theperiodofeclipseattainsa maximumof70 minutesat theequinox. A 5 GWe satellitewouldhave a massofat least30,000tons.As a space
shuttlehas a maximumpayload of 26 tons to low orbit(up to 400 km
fromEarth), and a single flightto and fromorbit costs $420 million
(Robertson1995), thecostoftransporting
thesatellitecomponentsto geosynchronousorbitwould exceed $500 billion,and the costofthe electricitywould exceed one dollarper kWh.
is likelyto remainhigherthanthe
Because thecostofsolarelectricity
costof nuclearor hydroelectricity
fora long timeto come, the rateof deploymentofsolarpowerplantswillprobablybe slow.
A reasonableestimateforenergyproductionfromthe new renewable sources in 2100 is 2 Gtoe, thatis, fourtimesthe Case B figurefor
2020. The estimatesfor2100 in Cases A, B, and C are based on unrealistic
"exponential"thinking.
The EPA projection
The US Environmental
Protection
Agency(EPA) has projectedworldenergy
to2100,usinga methodsimilarto thatoftheWEC (EPA 1990).
consumption
The EPA projectionis based on threeassumptions:
1 The year-2100populationsoftheMDCs and LDCs (as thesegroups
ofcountriesare currently
defined)willbe 1.5 and 9.0 billionrespectively.

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BERNARD

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GILLAND

2 GDP per capita in the MDCs and LDCs will increaseat 2 percent
and 3 percentper yearrespectively
to $100,000 and $25,000 respectively
(in 1988 dollars).
3 Energyintensityin the MDCs and LDCs will decline at approximately1.4 percentand 1.6 percentper yearrespectively
to 4 MJ/$in both
groupsofcountries.
The projectedenergyconsumptionis 36 Gtoe,in fairlygood agreementwiththe 33 GtoeoftheWEC Case B extension.The sensitivity
ofthe
projectionto variationsin theassumptionscan be shownby using 1.5 percent and 2.5 percentforthe GDP per capita growthrates,which reduces
the projectedenergyconsumptionto 20 Gtoe,in agreementwiththe extensionsofCases C and D.

Carbondioxideandclimate
The concentrationof carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphereincreased
fromapproximately
280 partspermillionbyvolume (ppm) in 1750 to 354
ppmin 1990, and is now increasingat 1.6 ppmper year.A risingCO2 concentrationwill have climaticeffects,
includinga risein globalmean temperatureand mean sea level,but the magnitudesof the effectsare highly
uncertain.As CO2emissionfromfossilfuelcombustionis theprincipalcause
ofthe risein atmosphericCO2concentration,
thereis widespreadconcern
about theincreasinguse offossilenergy.
Atmospheric
CO2 concentration
in 1900-90 and the WEC illustrative
scenariosfor1990-2100 are shownin Figure10. The relationship
between
the CO2 concentrationin 2100 and the rise in global mean temperature
(relativeto 1990), computedat the requestofthe WEC byT. M. L. Wigley
and M. HulmeoftheClimateResearchUnitoftheUniversity
ofEastAnglia,
usingthe MAGICC climatemodel,is shown in Figure11. Thereis a wide
marginofuncertainty
foreach scenarioregarding
boththe CO2concentrationand the risein globalmean temperature.
in CO2 conThe uncertainty
centrationarisesfromthe uncertainty
in the futureairbornefraction,the
fractionofthe CO2emissionthatremainsin the atmosphere.
The assumed airbornefractionforeach scenariois not statedin the
WEC report,but can be calculatedfromthe data given.For Case B, the
cumulativecarbon emissionin 1990-2100 is 1,180 Gt. The atmospheric
CO2concentration
is projectedto riseby262 ppm.As 1 ppmofatmospheric
CO2 has a carboncontentof2.128 Gt,the CO2 risecorrespondsto an additional 558 Gt of carbonin the atmosphere.5
The assumed mean airborne
fractionis thus 558/1,180,or 0.47, whichagreescloselywithhistoricalestimates.
The temperaturerisespredictedby the MAGICC and otherclimate
modelsare purelytheoretical;no temperature
changethatcan be ascribed
to risingCO2 concentration
has yetbeen observed.6A studyof27,000 tem-

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532

POPULATION,

GROWTH,

AND ENERGY

FIGURE 10 Atmosphericcarbondioxide
concentration,1900-90,and projected concentrations
under alternative assumptions for 1990-2100
800

708

700

617

600

536*

*> 500

.469

. 1~~~~~~~~~~494
1 6

400

300

I-354

-339I
L_326

317
311

200

1900

1950

I
2000
Year

2050

2100

SOURCES: 1900-90: DatabaseoftheHadley CentreforClimatePredictionand

Research(Bracknell,
England); 2050 and 2100: WorldEnergyCouncil.

peratureprofilesover40 years,reportedin January1993, showed no evidence of surfacewarmingin the ArcticOcean and a significant
temperature decrease in the westernpart of the ocean between 1950 and 1990
(Allaby1994).
Figure 12 shows quinquennial average surfaceair temperaturesin
Denmarkforthe period 1875-1994. The data are based on severaldaily

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BERNARD

533

GILLAND

FIGURE 11 Projectionsforatmosphericcarbon
dioxide concentrationin 2100 under alternative
assumptionsand estimatedhigh,medium,and low
values of correspondingglobal mean temperature
rise for1990-2100
4

3
0
0
1-4

,.A

B
22

C~~C-

400

700
500
600
AtmosphericC02concentrationin 2100 (ppm)

800

SOURCE:WEC 1993

variareadingsat about 30 observationstations.The patternoftemperature

tionis similarto thatforthe NorthernHemisphere.It remainsto be seen
whethertherelatively
observedin 1990-94 are a shorthightemperatures
termdeviationor the precursorof a warmerperiod;it would be rash to
ascribeitprematurely
to thegreenhouseeffect.7
DuringtheEuropeanheat

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534

POPULATION,

GROWTH,

AND ENERGY

FIGURE 12 Quinquennial average surfaceair

temperatures in Denmark, 1875-79 to 1990-94
9.0

8.5

8.00

7.5-

7.0-

I
1950

6.5
1875

1900

1925

I
1975

2000

Year
SOURCE: Database of the Danish MeteorologicalInstitute

wave of July1994, Klaus Topfer,then GermanMinisterof the Environment,announced thatthe greenhouseeffecthad arrived.Per StigM0ller,
commented:"It
facetiously
a formerDanish Ministerofthe Environment,
afterMidsummerEve, as the weatherhad
musthave arrivedimmediately
been unusuallycold untilthen" (M0ller 1995). Topferwas subsequently
informedthatJulyhad been equallywarmin 1794, 1797, and 1834.

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BERNARD

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GILLAND

The WEC reportincludesan extractfrom"Climatechange 1992: The

supplementary
reportto the IPCC scientific
assessment,"which mentions
increasingevidenceofa coolingeffect
due to sulfateaerosols(airborneparticles).Thishas subsequentlybeen confirmed:"In all probability,
aerosols
primarily
composedofsulfates,themselvesthe resultofcommercialactivity,enhancetheabilityoftheatmosphereto reflect
sunlightback intospace
beforeitcan reachtheplanet'ssurfaceand participatein thewarmingprocess" (Charlsonand Wigley1994).
Anthropogenic
sulfuremission,mainlyin the formofsulfurdioxide,
is estimatedby the WEC at 65 milliontonsin 1990. It is about double the
emissionfromnaturalsources,mainlydimethylsulfidefrommarinephytoplankton.About halfthe amount of sulfurgases in the atmosphereis
eitherwashed out by rain or reactswith plants,soil, and seawater; the
remainderis oxidizedto aerosolparticles.The anthropogenicsulfuremission in 2020 is projectedat 98 milliontonsin Case A, 88 milliont in Case
B 1, 66 milliont in Case B, and 43 milliont in Case C.
Analysisof ice coresbored in Greenlandand Antarcticashows that
temperaturefluctuations
in atmoare highlycorrelatedwithfluctuations
sphericCO2 concentration.
But the temperature
risesoccurshortlybefore
the CO2 rises,showingthat,ifthe two are causallyconnected,the former
cause the latter.The explanationis thatthe oceans containlargeamounts
of CO2; when the ocean temperaturerises,the solubilityof CO2 declines,
and CO2is releasedto theatmosphere.
The changein attitudeto man-madechangesin theenvironment(by
focusingon anticipateddetrimentalinsteadof beneficialeffects)is strikinglyillustratedby contrasting
currentconcernabout the greenhouseeffectwiththe suggestionof biochemistHarrisonBrown,thata triplingof
the atmosphericCO2 concentration
would allow a doublingofworldfood
production(Brown 1954: 142). Brown consideredthe absorptionof CO2
by the oceans to be a "seriouslimitation,"goingas faras to suggestthat
CO2fromfossilfuelcombustionbe supplementedbyheatinglimestone.
Rises in mean sea level by 2100 were also estimatedby using the
MAGICC climatemodel. The resultswere risesof 48, 42, and 33 cm for
Cases A, B, and C respectively.
is givenforCase B only:a
The uncertainty
minimumof 12 and a maximumof81 cm.
The estimatedrisesin CO2 concentration,
global mean temperature,
and mean sea level by 2100 forCase D are obviouslyslightlylower than
thoseforCase B.
The judgmentof the WEC: "Readersare leftto draw theirown conclusionsas to the severityof the challengethe world may face,and the
extentofabatementand adaptationmeasuresthatmaybe demanded"(WEC
1993: 310). The WEC would have done betterto emphasizethatthe basis
fordrawingconclusionson the severityofthechallengeis stillinadequate.

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536

POPULATION,

GROWTH,

AND ENERGY

Conclusions
The considerationsadvanced in thisarticlepointto the followingconclusions:
1 The UN 'medium" populationprojectionis plausibleforthe period
up to 2020.
2 Plausiblescenariosforworldprimaryenergyconsumptionin the
year2020 are WEC Case B (13.4 Gtoe)and thesupplementary
Case D (11.0
Gtoe).Forcomparison,
worldenergyconsumption
in 1990 was 8.8 Gtoe.
3 The rangesof uncertainty
in populationand energyforthe year
2100 are enormous.Nevertheless,
it is difficult
to see how primaryenergy
consumptionin thatyearcan exceed 20 Gtoe,whichwillprobablybe just
sufficient
to maintainthe global averageat 1.7 tons of oil equivalentper
capita. One way of attainingthislevel of consumptionis a 50 percentincrease (relativeto 1990) in fossilfuelproduction,combinedwith a doublingof traditionalbiomassproduction,a quadruplingof hydroelectricity
production,a ninefold increase in nuclear energyproduction,and a
twelvefoldincreasein new renewableenergyproduction.
4 The atmosphericCO2 concentration
in 2100 willprobablybe somewhat lowerthanthe 617 ppm oftheWEC Case B extension,but is almost
certainto exceed the469 ppmoftheWEC Case C extension.(The conceninducesuntrationin 1990 was 355 ppm.) Iftheincreasein concentration
favorableclimatechanges,theyshouldbe regardedas partofthepriceto be
in theaffluent
paidforthefossilenergybonanzathathas culminated
society.

Notes
1 The WorldEnergyCouncil,foundedin
1924,is a nongovernmental,
nonpoliticalorganizationwith nationalcommitteesin 99
countries.Its objectiveis 'to promotethe
sustainablesupplyand use ofenergyforthe
greatestbenefitofall.' It holdsa WorldEnergyConferencetriennially;
the 15thConference was held in Madrid in 1992, and the
16thwillbe heldin Tokyoin 1995.The WEC
Commissionresponsibleforthe reportwas
formedin 1990,and thereportwas published
in September1993; over 500 people fromall
in itspreparation.
fivecontinents
participated
2 World reactorcapacityat the end of
1994 was 340 GWe; an additional39 GWe
was underconstruction.
Fuelinga pressurizedwaterreactor(the
dominantreactortype) of 1 GWe generat-

ingcapacity,operatingat a load factorof 75

percent,requires 149 tons of natural uranium per year on the "once through'fuel
spentfuel.
cycle,i.e., withoutreprocessing
Operatingreactorswitha totalcapacity
of 1,000 GWe for 60 years on this basis
would thusrequire9 milliontonsofnatural
uranium. "Known" uranium resources
amountto 3.7 milliontons,and "undiscovered' resourcesare estimatedat 13 million
tons (WEC 1993: 91).
Uranium (in the form of uranyl tricarbonate)is presentin seawaterat a concentrationof 3 parts per billion; the total
amountexceeds4 billiontons.However,the
of large-scaleextractionis highly
feasibility
costestimatesvaryfromseveral
problematic;
hundredto severalthousanddollarsper kg

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BERNARD

537

GILLAND

ofuranium.The currentpriceofnaturalura- and inlandseas are 230,000km3and 2.5 milniumisapproximately

$60 perkg;an increase lion km2respectively.
of$1,000perkgwouldraisethecostofnudear
5 The figure2.128 is derivedas follows:
electricity
producedon the "once through'
Mass
oftheatmosphere= 5.136 millionGt
cycleby 2.3 centsperkWh.
The only certainmethod of extending MolecularweightofCO2= 44
uraniumresourcesis large-scaledeployment Mean molecularweightofair = 28.96
of breederreactors.Whereas a pressurized Mass of 1 ppm CO2 = 5.136(44/28.96)=
waterreactorfissionslessthan900 kgofma7.803 Gt
terialper year,i.e., 0.6 percentofthe natuAtomic
weightofcarbon= 12
ral uraniumrequiredto providethe fuel,a
breedercan use up to 60 percentofthenatu- Carboncontentof 1 ppm CO2 = 7.803(12/
raluraniumbyconverting
U-238 in a 'blan- 44)= 2.128 Gt.
ket"surroundingthe reactorto plutonium6 The European Climate SupportNet239. However,theplutoniumin theblanket work (the coordinatingorgan of the Eurois weapons-grade.It would thereforeprob- pean meteorologicalinstitutes)presenteda
ablybe necessaryto confineplantsthatre- reportat the UnitedNationsClimateConprocessbreederblanketmaterialto a small ventionin Berlin,March-April1995. The
numberof locations under internationally reportconcludedthattheobservedtemperaagreedsupervision.
ture changes in Europe and the NorthAt3 Goeller and Weinberg envisaged a lantic from 1951 to 1990 are within the
worldof 10 billionpeople in which energy rangeofnaturalvariation,and thatanthrodemandwould be metby 15,000breederre- pogenicclimatechangeis expectedto be deactors,each of 2 GWe. The totalproduction tectable"in the courseof the next century,
ofthermalenergywould be 75 terawatts,
or butprobablynotbefore2010, 2020, or 2030"
56 Gtoe per year (Goeller and Weinberg (Schuurmanset al. 1995).
1976). The authorsdid not statewhen they
The HadleyCentreforClimatePrediction
consideredthisenergysystemcould be de- and Research(Bracknell,England)also preployed,but threeyearslaterGoellerwrote senteda reportat theBerlinconference.The
that 75 TW 'would require an enormous Hadleyglobalclimatemodel,whichtakesthe
endeavorbut would not,in our opinion,be effect
ofaerosolsintoaccount,indicatesa rise
impossible,
givena centuryormorein which in mean temperatureof 0.20C per decade
to accomplishit." He added that"a twelve- from1990 to 2050 on the assumptionthat
foldincreasein 150 yearsrepresentsan av- the total equivalentatmosphericCO2 conofall greenhousegases (CO2,CH4,
erage annual growthrate of only 1.7 per centration
cent" (Goeller 1979: 155). Arguably,thisis N20, CFCs) increasesat 1 percentper year
a good exampleofhow "exponential"think- from1990 onward (Hadley 1995). No asingleads to tenuousconclusions.
sumptionsweremade concerningthe distri4 The annual flowof the world'srivers butionof the incrementalradiativeforcing
(39,000 km3), falling through the mean amongthegreenhousegases,but iftheforcheightof the continents(excludingAntarc- ingfromatmosphericCO2increasein 1990tica) above sea level (738 m), dissipates 2050 is assumedto constitute72 percentof
78,000 TWh. In 1988, worldhydroelectric- the total forcingin the same period (as in
ityproductionwas 2,100 TWh.The volume the 1995 IPCC scenario), then the atmowould increaseat
of water impounded in reservoirsabove sphericCO2concentration
and
reach 545 ppmv
0.72
year,
percent
per
resdamswas 5,500 km3,and thearea ofthe
ervoirswas approximately350,000 km2.If in 2050. The Hadley scenariois thus comhydroelectricity
productionwere increased parableto WEC Case A.
to 12,000 TWh per year,the reservoirvol7 "Long recordsshow that,at least in
ume and area would be roughly30,000 km3 Centraland NorthernEurope, the present
Forcompari- warmperiodin Europeis at about the same
and 2 millionkm2respectively.
son,thevolumeand area oftheworld'slakes level as measured200 yearsago" (Schuur-

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538

POPULATION,

mans et al. 1995). The temperature at

Hohenpeissenberg,
a 988-meterpeak in Bavaria,has been monitoredsince 1781. The
temperature
risesince1890 was precededby
a declineofequal magnitude,whichstarted
around 1800 (Laut 1995). The declinemust

GROWTH,

AND ENERGY

have been precededby a rise greaterthan

thatin the twentiethcentury,as temperaturesin Europe in the 1690s are knownto
have been the lowestin the past thousand
and Neumann 1981).
years(Lindgre'n

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