Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Introduction
Financial Securities and Derivatives
Growing Financial Markets
Derivative Securities
Markets and Trading
Primary and Secondary Markets
Exchanges and OTC Markets
Brokers and Dealers
Trading Stocks at the New York Stock Exchange
Order Placement Strategies
Other Ways of Trading Securities
Execution, Settlement, and Clearance
Scalpers, Day Traders, and Position Traders
Market Microstructure
Defining, Measuring, and Managing Risk
Portfolio Risk
Regulators Classification of Risks
Value-at-Risk
Some Risks that Businesses Face
Summary
Further Information, References, Questions and Problems
Information
References
Questions and Problems
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1.1
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Introduction
The last three decades of the twentieth century have seen an explosion in the number and
kind of derivative securities traded in the global financial markets. A derivative security or a
derivative derives its value from something else: a stock price, a commodity price, an
exchange rate, or even an index. A derivative can reduce riskby providing insurance or, by
enabling a trader to fix a price for a future transaction nowor it can magnify it. Derivatives
provide endless ways of investing and managing wealth.
Zip back to the Sixties. Only a handful of people studied derivatives: there were no
books, and no college or university offered courses on them. The markets were small, located
mostly in the United States and parts of Western Europe. The practitioners included a limited
number of traders in futures markets, and a small number of people in Wall Street firms. The
options market was illiquid and informalcheating charges gave it disrepute. Nobody had
heard about swaps because the first swap deal was negotiated in 1981. Talk of derivatives
didnt add sparkle to cocktail conversation. Brash, young, successful derivatives traders
didnt drive Mercedes and BMWs. These swashbuckling traders who can move millions at
the touch of a computer button didnt exist then. Einstein had developed the theory of
relativity, scientists had probed microbes and split atoms, and astronauts had landed on the
moon, but nobody knew how to price an option.
What a difference three decades have made! Derivative markets have grown by leaps and
bounds and new products are constantly being introduced. The markets have gone global and
derivatives experts are in great demand. Hundreds of academics study derivatives and
thousands of articles have been written on this topic. Colleges and universities offer many
courses on derivatives. Derivative based journals and books have mushroomed. Directly or
indirectly, derivatives now affect the livelihood of millions and plenty of people (including
some academics!) derive a good living from it. Wall Street firms hire Ph.D.s in mathematics,
natural and social sciences to design new derivativesthese folks are admirably called
rocket scientists, suggesting a level of math skill akin to the scientists designing rockets for
the space program (Quants is another name that they go by.) If you know derivatives, then
you know cool stuff, and you are hot. Rhetoric asidederivatives have become an integral
part of the finance curriculum as this knowledge is needed in most finance jobs.
But why these changes? Why have they happened now? We will examine several
probable causes in this chapter. And what are the different kinds of derivatives? How do you
price them? How do you use them? Why would you use them? Well, thats what this book is
1
A security, such as a stock or a bond or an option, gives the holder ownership rights over some assets. It
exists as a paper document or an electronic entry record, and usually trades in an organized market. See
Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (which is available on the internet) for a technically correct, detailed definition
of a security.
2 People often use the term Wall Street firms to mean investment banking companies, many of which have
offices in and around Wall Street in New Yorks financial district. Such firms typically run many lines of
businesses like a) generating financial research for own and client use, b) advising clients on mergers and
acquisitions, c) helping a company go public, b) buying and selling securities and e) designing and selling a
variety of financial products catered to client needs (the last two activities may be called security dealership).
3 In 1993, one of the authors asked a manager at a baby Bell company about the extent of derivatives use in
their billion-dollar pension fund portfolio. When pressed, he acknowledged, We dont understand derivatives
very well and stay away from them. Such ignorance is fast disappearing among the new generation of finance
graduates. Still, in a job interview, a light goes on when derivatives is on your resume.
Chapter 1, Page 3
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about. We will introduce you to the fascinating world of derivativesfutures and forwards,
options, and swaps and their markets. You will learn to price derivatives, to combine them
with other securities to form complex financial instruments, and to break down a complicated
derivative into simpler parts. You will be able to use them in trading strategies and risk
management plans. Through definitions, descriptions, and examples this book will give you a
solid foundation that will serve you well in many finance careers and also prepare you for
further studies on derivatives.
The first three chapters lay the basic foundation of this book by discussing financial
securities and derivatives markets, trading and the traders, risks from derivatives, an
introduction to the major kinds of derivatives, the concepts of arbitrage and interest rates, the
U.S. Government Treasury securities markets, and finally, compounding and discounting of
cash flows using Treasury zero coupon bonds. The later chapters build on this common
foundation to study the three major kinds of derivatives in greater detail.
We begin this chapter with a brief introduction to financial securities and derivatives. The
markets and the trading process come next. Brokers and dealers are those professionals who
earn a living by helping investors trade. They finely balance the risks and returns for survival
charging too much will drive away their customers while charging too little will drive
them out of business. Risks can come from many sourcesin the commissions to charge, the
margins to keep, and the amount of securities to offer at any particular price. When trading
with someone better informed than they arethe brokers and dealers constantly juggle these
risks to survive in ruthlessly competitive markets.
Who are the traders in the derivatives markets? Broadly speaking, they are classified as
hedgers or speculators by their motives as to whether they use derivatives for risk reduction
(hedging) or risk acceptance (speculation). The speculators can be scalpers, day traders or
position traders depending on their trading strategies and how long they hold their trade. We
can add a third category of tradersarbitrageurs who try to find price discrepancies and
extract riskless arbitrage profits by buying low and selling high the mispriced securities.
Much of the derivatives market has grown around hedgers. You may have heard the
expression hedging ones bets. This means taking steps to protect oneself from the wild
swings in some outcome. Sometimes a hedge may come naturally. For example, Figure 1-1
shows a man selling stuff on some tourist spot, perhaps a beach. If he chooses his wares
wisely, say by carrying an assortment of umbrellas and sunglasses, then he has hedged well;
come rain, come shinehe has something to sell. At other times, you may use derivatives to
reduce price risks; or just decide to leave the risk alone. In fact, before allowing a new
futures contract for trading, the federal regulatory body Commodity Futures Trading
Commission carefully checks whether it can be used by hedgers for reducing some preexisting risk. Due to its paramount importance in risk management, we will discuss hedging
in this chapter and throughout the book.
And what about the trading process? Market microstructure is a subfield of finance that
studies this process and how the rules of trading affect price formation. It provides common
sense explanations of many observed phenomena in stock, bond, and derivatives markets.
4
Jarrow and Turnbulls Derivative Securities (2000) picks up where this book ends. Its presentation is
suitable for sophisticated practitioners, advanced MBAs, and the beginning Ph.D.s. If you are interested in
delving deeper for a unified treatment of derivatives on fixed income securities, and the most up-to-date
material used by the major finance companies and market professionals, then we recommend Jarrows
Modeling Fixed Income Securities and Interest Rate Options (2002).
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Although risky by nature, derivatives can do wonders for managing the risk of a
portfolio, which is a collection of securities. You will learn how to do this too. But
derivatives are not all stardust and glitter. There are disturbing, boring, uninteresting
problems that come along with derivativesa contract may be written poorly, a derivative
may show little trading activity, or a clerk may not enter an order correctly. Such problems
are not unique to derivativesthey exist whenever you are trading securities. However,
financial market regulators deeply worry about these risks as well as market risks like default
and adverse price movements. They wrote a report in 1994 that stressed the need for
oversight in risk management. We briefly discuss these risks as well for we will study them
later on in this book.
Nowadays journals, books, booklets, newspapers, magazines, periodicals, as well as
Internet websites carry a wealth of information on derivatives. We list several such sources
for you to explore. As in the later chapters, we end with a collection of problems, and
encourage you to solve them.
FIGURE 1-1
WISELY HEDGEDCOME RAIN, COME SHINE, HE HAS SOMETHING TO SELL
Umbrella
$10
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Umbrella
$10
Sunglass
1.2
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war, terrorist attacks, business cycles, systems meltdown, computer glitches, debt default
by sovereign nations, and imprudent trading by rogue traders and hedge funds. These
problems could easily shake the financial markets to the core. When several things go wrong
at the same time, regulators worry that sustained miseries like the Great Depression of the
nineteen thirties arent far behind.
What do you do in a world where these kind of dangers lurk? You have no choice but to
be proactive. These dangers can make and break your businessthey must be cured,
controlled or endured. With unjaundiced eyes, you should first assess all the risks that can
affect your business and then decide which ones to accept and the ones to control.
Derivatives are an invaluable set of tools for this purpose. The following examples show why
derivatives are useful for risk management in recent times.
The foreign exchange market is the worlds largest financial marketbillions of dollars
worth of currencies trade daily. From the mid nineteen forties up until the early seventies, the
world economy operated under the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange ratesall the
currencies were pegged to the U.S. dollar, while the dollar was pegged to gold at $35 per
ounce. This led to a stable monetary system that served the world well for decades. Problems
arose when gold prices soared. Non U.S. countries converted their currencies into dollars and
bought gold from the U.S. at the cheap price of $35 per ounce, making huge profits. As a
result, the U.S. gold reserves suffered a terrible decline. As all the currencies were pegged to
the dollar, the U.S. could not adjust on its own the dollars exchange rate to alleviate this
imbalance. This situation could not continue indefinitely. Finally, President Nixon abandoned
the Bretton Woods system in 1971.
Currencies now float vis--vis one another in a free market, although their values are
frequently manipulated by the central banks. The floating exchange rates, which are the
values of one currency in terms of others, have become extremely volatile. This increase in
exchange rate volatility has created the huge market for foreign exchange based futures and
forwards, options, and swaps. Foreign exchange based options enable a business to avoid the
possibility of an unfavorable price movement in lieu of a premium, forwards and futures let
them lock in a price for a future transaction, and swaps, like the futures and forwards, allow
them to fix prices for several transactions at later dates.
The central bank of the United States, the Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed), used
monetary policy tools to keep interest rates stable. In 1979, the Fed stopped fixing interest
rates and began targeting money supply growth instead. Moreover, oil shocks and other
supply-side disturbances created double digit inflation rates in the seventies and the eighties,
which in turn led to double digit U.S. interest rates and a wiggling of U.S. interest rates quite
unlike what had been seen before. U.S. interest rates became highly volatile. This created a
need for securities that would eliminate interest rate risks from transactions. As with foreign
currency based derivativesinterest rate based derivatives emerged to help.
5
See Smithson et al (1995) for a discussion of how macroeconomic changes have affected risk management.
The agreement to create a Gold Exchange Standard was signed in 1944 by 44 members of the United
Nations in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, USA. Courses in International Trade and Finance study the pros
and cons of the different exchange rate regimes, the factors holding the exchange rates together, and the
implications of trading policies adopted by nations.
7 Courses in Macroeconomics, Money and Finance, Banking, or Financial Markets and Institutions will help
you understand how the central banks can fine tune the economy using the tools of monetary policy likea)
setting the discount rate, b) fixing the bank reserve requirements, and c) buying and selling of government
bonds (Open Market Operations).
6
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Nowadays, the Fed doesnt pursue any single monetary policy target. They use discretion
rather than clear-cut rules in conducting monetary policy. Nobel Laureate Merton Miller
(1986) has argued that regulations and taxes are the major impulses to financial innovation:
each successful innovation earns an immediate reward for its adopters in the form of tax
money saved. This certainly seems to be the case for foreign currency and interest rate
derivatives.
Volatility increase has also been observed in many other markets. Notably, the inflation
rate and commodity prices have become more prone to fluctuations. Not surprisingly,
demand for derivatives that hedge these risks is also growing. Volatility is disruptive. Often a
business may avoid price uncertainty by accepting a lower price through a derivative contract
we show this in the forward contract example later in this chapter. Derivatives help to
reduce risk, but like other good things in the world, they dont come free. If you want
something, you have to pay for it. In seeking risk reduction, you either pay a premium for the
derivative (as in the case of options) or agree to trade at a bad price (as with futures and
forwards). To summarize, a careful study of derivatives will give you more flexibility in
managing risk and uncertainties, open up new ways of investing, make you more
knowledgeable of finance, and consequently more valuable in your job.
Derivative Securities
Many different securities trade. You are familiar with bonds, which are debts of the issuer,
and stocks, which give investors part ownership in the issuing company. Bonds and stocks
require an initial investment. Most bonds pay back this amount (principal) at maturity. Some
bonds pay interests (coupons) on a regular basis, while others are zero coupon bonds that
pay no interest but are sold at a discount from the principal. The investment in stock is never
repaidas compensation stockholders usually get paid dividends on a quarterly basis. Stock
prices can increase and cause capital gains for the investors. These profits are realized by
selling the stock.
Stocks and bonds are used to create new classes of securities called derivativesand
thats where much of the variety comes in. A derivative security is a financial contract
whose value is derived from one or more underlying variablesthe underlying variable can
be a stock, a bond, another security, a commodity, an index, an interest rate, or even another
derivative security. Forwards and futures, options, and swaps are the basic types of
derivatives. When you combine several types of securities together into one financial
instrument, it usually ends up being a derivative.
To conceptualize, lets define various entities:
a) Real and financial assets are land, buildings, machines, commodities, stocks, bonds, and
foreign currencies, which have tangible values.
b) Notional variables are interest rates, inflation rates, and security indexes that exist as
notions or ideas rather than as tangible assets.
Derivative securities are either created from real assets and securities or by writing
contracts on notional variables. Early derivatives were solely created from financial and real
assets. Even in the nineteen sixties corn was king and agricultural product based futures
composed the nine most actively traded contracts in the U.S.
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As economies become complex, more and more notional variables are devised to
summarize the state of the economy. Just open the Money and Investing Section of the Wall
Street Journal and you will be amazed by the varietythe last five years have seen a boom in
the indexes that are out there. New derivatives based on such notional variables are
constantly being introducedsome survive in the marketplace, some dont. But when they
do survive, they can be very useful for sophisticated risk management techniques.
Zip back to the U.S. in the new millennium. Financial futures are the most popular
futures contracts of the day. The two most active contracts, Eurodollar and U.S. Treasury
bond futures, didnt even exist 30 years back. Corn and soybean based futures have barely
stayed in the top ten list. And what underlies some of the most active contracts? The
underlyings are: crude oil, the S&P 500 index, Treasury bonds, Eurodollars, Euros, Japanese
Yen, Swiss Francsesoteric and fancy stuff, contracts based on which didnt even exist in
the sixties. We can now invest in many kinds of securities with different kinds of payoffs.
This is linked with the economists idea of a complete market in which existing securities
can generate all possible future payoffs. Economists and finance academics applaud the fact
that derivatives help markets become more complete. Moreover, derivatives promote trading
efficiency by allowing investments with low trading costs. Derivatives have become an
integral part of risk management.
Risk management isnt what it used to bebuy a couple of derivatives and pray. It has
become incredibly sophisticated with lots of risks to hedge, plenty of techniques to
implement, and a plethora of derivatives to choose from. Quite understandably, derivatives
now form a sizable chunk of the financial markets. Its easy to speculate with derivatives:
buy them up, make huge one-sided bets and laugh on your way to bank or cry on your way to
bankruptcy. Such nave bets have caused huge losses at firms like Proctor and Gamble and
Barings and have given derivatives a bad rap. A cartoon in the Wall Street Journal showing a
boy begging alms from a well-dressed man, Dad was in Derivatives, aptly portrays the
sentiment. Imprudent risk taking without adequate checks and balances has been the
problem. Derivatives, by allowing high leverage, only made such risk taking easier. People
are uncomfortable with derivatives because they are complex instruments, difficult to
understand, and highly leveraged. Legendary investor Warren Buffett and the famous money
manager Peter Lynch of Fidelity Investments said that options should be outlawed (Lynch,
1989). However, most Fortune 500 companies as well as many smaller firms increasingly use
derivatives (including options) for risk managementa trend that is expected to continue.
Derivatives can be extremely useful for risk reduction or hedging. Derivatives trade in
zero-supply markets, where for each buyer there must be a seller. In fact, when you buy a
derivative for hedging, it is likely that the other side in the transaction (counterparty) is
selling it for speculative reasons or profit motives. Consider a simple example.
8
10
Not only will you find regular stock indexes like the Dow-Jones and the Standard and Poors, but a collection
of indexes like the ones based on technology stocks, pharmaceuticals stocks, Mexican stocks, Utility stocks, and
the Value Line stocks. Moreover, you will find price quotes of derivatives that are based on such indexes.
9 High leverage means that small changes in the underlying assets price can cause large swings in the
derivatives price.
10 At the end of this Chapter, there is a discussion of derivatives usage by the blue chip company, consumer
products giant Proctor and Gamble.
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11
11
It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races, (Mark
Twains The Tragedy of Pudd'nhead Wilson, Hartford, Connecticut: American Publishing Co., 1894)
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A manufacturer of silver jewelry who plans to buy silver in six months can save on
transaction costs by buying silver futures.
An investor who would like to fix a buying price for gold but retain the flexibility of
changing her mind can buy options on gold futures.
A company can transform a fixed interest rate paying loan to a floating interest rate
paying loan through a swap.
An airline can lock fuel costs by entering a commodity swap or by buying oil futures or
forward.
A trader can avoid short selling restrictions on the New York Stock Exchange by easily
taking a sell position in the options or the futures market.
And a wretch can gamble away her inheritance with options.
One of the greatest recognitions for derivatives came in 1997 when Robert Merton and
Myron Scholes were awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics for developing in
1973 the seminal Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) model for option valuation. This formula
is extremely usefuloption traders have it programmed into their calculators and computers.
It has also been applied in other branches of economics and business to study problems like
investment valuation, strategic decision-making, and resource extraction. The BSM model
really started derivatives as an academic field in its own right.
The Black-Scholes-Merton model makes a number of restrictive assumptions.
Subsequent researchers have built more powerful valuation models by relaxing these
assumptions and developing pricing models for other kinds of derivatives. A secondgeneration model that is very popular in both Wall Street and among academics is the HeathJarrow-Morton (HJM) model. It relaxes the constant interest rate assumption of the BSM,
extracts information from the interest rate yield curve and builds that into the pricing model.
HJM can price a whole range of derivatives that could not be priced by the BSMin
particular, it can price interest rate sensitive contracts and long-lived derivatives. Introductory
texts avoid HJM due to its complex mathematics. A unique contribution of this book is a
simple intuitive presentation of the HJM model (see Chapter 15). Science is replete with
examples of todays esoteric notions gaining wide acceptance in tomorrows worldwhat
once belonged to specialists soon belongs to the public. This happened to the BSM model.
Learning HJM will give you an advantage when its of even wider use.
Why develop and study better models? Suppose you trade a variety of securities, many
times a day. If your pricing models are better, you have an edge over your counterparties and
competitors. Over many transactions, you will win on the average. Investment banking firms
and other Wall Street companies have no choice but investing in the best modelsits just
too important for their survival. The same applies to other companiesmaybe a little later.
12
12
Nobel Prizes are not awarded posthumouslyFischer Black, a prime originator of the model, died two years
earlier and thus missed the honor. Three other academicsHarry Markowitz, Merton Miller, and William
Sharpewon the 1990 Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (Nobel
Memorial Prize) for their contributions to Finance. Paul Samuelson, John Hicks, James Tobin, Franco
Modigliani, and Robert Engle are other Nobelists who have done significant work in Finance and related fields.
One of the all time great economists John Maynard Keynes studied the properties of futures prices, the role of
the stock market and speculators, and other finance topics. Finance has not only won great acceptance in every
day business life but has also attracted some of the finest academic minds.
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Before studying powerful models with esoteric mathematics, lets keep an eye on reality
and try to understand the basics of trading and the organization of the financial markets. This
is useful because finance, as a field, focuses on institutional details. Moreover, the different
derivatives markets that we discuss later have similar structures to those discussed here.
1.3
13
Stocks and bonds are also moving towards a certificateless existence; e.g., since January 1983, all U.S.
government securities issued are in book entry form at the Federal Reserve Bank, with the owners getting a
receipt of ownership.
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FIGURE 1-2
TIMELINE FOR A FORWARD CONTRACT
Now (January 1)
|
Intermediate date
|
_______
* Prices are per ounce
Example 1-2 Derivative (forward contract) creation, trading, and maturity (see Figure 1-2)
Today is the 1st of January. You want to enter a gold forward contract that will oblige you
to buy 50 ounces of gold at $300 per ounce on May 15.
Your agent (broker) finds me through my broker. I agree to sell a gold forward contract at
your offered price. I will sell 50 ounces of gold at $300 per ounce on May 15.
No money changes hands between us now. The brokers collect commissions from you
and me for this matching service. Following verification, the transaction gets recorded in
their respective computers. Thus, we created a derivative (forward contract) through
mutual agreement!
If we want, we can close-out our positions by selling our respective side of the trade to
other investors in the same secondary market where it was first created. If we dont closeout our positions, we meet on May 15.
Assume that the prices are per ounce. If gold is worth more than $300 on May 15, the
delivery date, then you win. Say, gold is worth $305then you pay only $300 for gold
thats worth $305 in the spot (cash) market (market for immediate buying and selling).
You make $5 per ounce, or (305-300) 50 = $250 on the contract at my expense.
If gold is worth less than $300, then you lose, for you will be paying $300 for gold thats
worth less in the spot market.
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15
14
Nowadays, most exchanges have parallel running computer systems for handling small orders.
In his first term as Vice President, Al Gore suggested a new set of regulations that would clean the
environment, make the companies efficient, and thus increase the rate of economic growth. Nobel Laureate
Gary Becker of the University of Chicago said in a TV interview that this argument is fallacioushow can you
raise economic growth when you are raising the cost of doing business? Economists however distinguish
between regulation and self-regulation: they understand that regulation is costly, they decry excessive
government regulation as bad, but they think that private entities will produce optimal amounts of selfregulation to attract customers and enhance the reputation of their business.
15
Chapter 1, Page 14
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volume (and a reduction in perceived market risk). Fourth, it can stave off lawsuits from
angry customers who feel cheated.
Along with self-regulation, most exchanges have a system of mediating disputes
(arbitration) that handles problems early in the process and lowers the chances of lawsuits.
While sneaky little problems may avoid detection, the big offenders are often punishedthe
Wall Street Journal regularly reports the names of guilty individuals as well as punishments
meted out by the exchanges.
An OTC (over-the-counter) market has fewer restrictions than an exchange. The
geographically separated traders communicate by phone, telexes, and increasingly by
computers. Sometimes an OTC market may be just like a stock exchangeNASDAQ
(National Association of Securities Dealers Automatic Quote System) offers a market for
many big stocks, but also for vastly more small company stocks.
Any transaction that you and I decide to execute, with or without the help of a broker and
without going through an exchange, will be called an OTC transaction. The contract will be
customized to our liking. For example, if you want to buy a highly customized derivative
which has a 4 years life, derives its value from the price of electricity, and a Wall Street
firm executes it for youthen this is an OTC transaction. OTC markets offer great flexibility
but little protection. The U.S. Treasury securities market is an extremely honorable OTC
market where traders go by the maxim My word is my bond. For many OTC markets, even
Treasury markets, when the going gets tough you run the risk of the counterparty failing to
honor the other side of the contract. In OTC markets, as in life, never forsake the adage
Know your customer. Example 1-3 lists some major U.S. and international exchanges and
OTC markets.
Example 1-3 Major U.S. and international exchanges and OTC markets
Major U.S. exchanges:
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is the major U.S. stock exchange.
The Chicago Board of Trade (CBT or CBOT) and The Chicago Mercantile
Exchange (CME) are major futures exchanges.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) is the major U.S. options exchange.
Most securities that we will encounter in this book trade in one of these four exchanges.
OTC instruments are very usefulmany of our examples use OTC instruments reduced
to their basics. The money market provides risk free interest rates that are vital for moving
funds across time and thus for pricing different derivatives.
Some major international derivatives exchanges:
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Started by Deutsche Brse AG and Swiss Exchange as a joint platform for trading and
clearing derivatives trade, Eurex, which operates very much like an OTC market, is the
worlds largest derivatives exchange.
The Hong Kong Futures Exchange (HKFE).
The London International Financial Futures & Options Exchange (LIFFE).
The March terme d'instruments financiers (MATIF).
The Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX).
The Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE).
The Tokyo International Financial Futures Exchange (TIFFE).
The Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE).
Some major international OTC markets:
Foreign exchange market, a loose telecom network of dealers and brokers, is the
worlds largest and arguably the most important financial market.
The swap market centered in London is a huge OTC market.
We will study many of these markets and securities later in the book.
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FIGURE 1-3
PLACING A TRADE ON THE NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE (NYSE)
Buyers Broker
Big order
Super Dot
(small order)
Floor Broker
Negotiated in
upstairs market
The specialist maintains a limit order book that records orders waiting to be filled.
Based on standing orders as well as what he thinks is a prudent price (he steps in to trade
on his account if he can offer a better price than those in the order book), specialist quotes
a price of $100.00 to $100.10. This means that he is willing to buy stocks from you at
Chapter 1, Page 17
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$100.00 per share (the bid price) and sell stocks to you at $100.10 (the ask price or the
offer price).
Suppose you submit a market order, which gets executed immediately at the best
available price. If nobody else comes to the trading booth with a better price, the
specialist steps in and sells you 100 IBM stocks at the ask price of $100.10 per share.
Market orders are always filled.
16
16
Following a tradition that goes back two centuries, share prices traded in increments of 1/32 nds in the New
York Stock Exchange. For example, a realistic quote for IBM would have been $100 to $100 1/8. To be
competitive with the rest of the world where decimal pricing is the norm and to stave off mounting pressure
from the SEC, the NYSE and other U.S. exchanges recently started quoting stock as well as equity option prices
in one cent increments.
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FIGURE 1-4
A CLASSIFICATION OF SOME ORDER PLACEMENT STRATEGIES
TRADE ORDERS
MARKET ORDER
(Immediate execution)
PRICE DEPENDENT
ORDERS:
Limit order
MIT order
Stop order
Stop limit order
TIME
DEPENDENT
ORDERS:
Time-of-day order
MOC order
FOK order
All or none order
DRT order
COMBINATION
ORDERS:
Spread order
OCO order
Switch order
Scale order
Cancel order
See Duffie (1989) or a practical futures trading book like Bernstein (2000) for a discussion of many different
order placement strategies.
Chapter 1, Page 19
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$100.10, especially if you are placing a small order. Market order is also the simplest way
to buy other securities such as futures and options.
Orders may depend on a specified price
When a seer was asked about the direction of the market, he replied, market will
fluctuate. Sometimes you may get a better price by waiting. You can try this by placing
a limit order that must be executed at the stated or a better price, or not executed at all.
You must specify whether this would be a day order or a good-till-canceled order: an
unfilled day order automatically cancels at the day end while a good-till-canceled
(GTC) order stays indefinitely open in specialists order book until you knock it off.
Suppose you place a limit buy order at $99.00. If stock price fluctuates and your
trade goes through, then you have made $1.10 price improvement. But you also run the
risk that the stock may rally and the order may never be filled. A limit buy order at $95.00
may give a much better price but has a much higher chance of not being filled.
Even if IBM touches $99.00, your limit order may not be filled. This occurs when there
are many outstanding limit orders at $99.00 and the price moves up before your order
gets filled. If you really want to trade at a price of $99.00 or something close, place a
market-if-touched (MIT) order. It becomes a market order after a trade occurs at your
specified price $99.00.
Suppose you want to buy IBM if you think a rally would develop. For example, you may
place a stop order to buy (or buy stop order) IBM at $101.00, which is above the
current prices $100.00 to $100.10. This becomes a market order as soon as a bid or an
offer or a trade price for IBM hits $101.00 or higher. One fact needs clarification: limit
and stop orders have very different purposes. Note that while limit buy orders are placed
below going prices, a buy stop order is placed above. The motive behind this seemingly
contradictory instruction of buying at a higher price clears up if you understand the
reason behind.
The opposite of a buy stop is a stop-loss order (or a sell stop order) that is placed
below current market prices. Suppose that IBM has a big run-up after you buy and it
settles at $120.00. You may like to lock in your gainbenefit from a rally but cut down
losses if the price suddenly sinks. Place a stop order to sell IBM if the price falls below
$118. Should IBM rise further, you will profit more; if it falls, you can protect a big
chunk of your earlier profits by selling the stock at $118.
Another possibility is placing a buy stop-limit order. Suppose you place a stop-limit
order to buy IBM stock at $101.00, which is above the current prices. This order becomes
a limit buy order as soon as a bid, or an offer or a trade price hits $101.00 or higher.
This has the risk of never being filled. For example, if the market pierces $101 and
immediately shoots up, then your broker will be unable to buy at $101.00 or a lower
price.
You may also specify separate stop and limit prices. Due to their complex nature,
many exchanges do not accept stop-limit orders.
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FIGURE 1-5
SOME ORDER PLACEMENT STRATEGIES
101.00 (Note: a
buy stop is a buy
order placed
above ask)
Chapter 1, Page 21
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end (your potential counterparties know that you are trying to escape before the barn door
gets bolted), MOC is also called murder on close order!
A fill-or-kill order (FOK order) must be immediately filled or it is canceled. Dont
place them too far from the current pricesit is unlikely to go through and will only
irritate your broker. Expert traders sometimes use them to test the strength or weakness of
the market.
An all or none order must be executed in full. Suppose you place a limit order to buy
3,000 shares of YBM. A trader is willing to sell you only 1,000 shares. Normally, the
limit order will go through and you will get a partial execution. Someone else may sell
you the remaining 2,000 shares at your price or those may never be filled. With an all or
none order, your broker must get 3,000 shares to match your 3,000 buys. Otherwise, this
limit order will not go through.
A discretionary order (or market-not-held or disregard tape, DRT order) is a market
order but the filling broker may delay it in an attempt to get a better price. This can be
useful for executing large trades, as it gives the broker more leeway to do a better job.
Chapter 1, Page 22
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impact of your trade will lead to partial fulfillment, you may place a scale order to buy 10
contracts at $299.80, 10 at $300.00, 10 at $300.20, and 10 at $300.40.
A cancel order or a straight cancel order completely cancels a previous order. A cancel
replace order replaces an existing order with a new one.
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FIGURE 1-4
EXECUTION, CLEARING, AND SETTLEMENT IN THE STOCK MARKET
A) EXECUTION
Seller
Buyer
Broker
Broker
Agree on trade
Exchange-traded options and futures are handled through a more complex process. A
trade is executed and settled, but someone has to guarantee that the traders will honor their
transaction. This is where the clearinghouse steps in. It guarantees each contract and acts as a
seller to every buyer as well as a buyer to every seller. The clearinghouse charges a fee for
this service and protects itself by requiring margins from traders. Traders dont have to worry
about default risk anymore. They can focus on trading strategies without worrying about
possible snags in contract performance.
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Market Microstructure
What determines the bid-ask spread? Market microstructure tries to find answers to this
question. This literature studies the trading process itself and determines how the rules of
trading affect price formation. We can think of three factors determining the bid-ask spreada) Order processing costs. There are the physical costs of trading like seat costs,
accounting and computer costs, exchange fees, security deposits (margins), taxes, etc. As
real as your income taxes, these costs are necessary to trade.
b) Inventory theory of trading suggests that the dealer adjusts the bid-ask spread to
maintain an optimal inventory.
Example: A dealer quotes $100.00 to $100.50 for a stock but still finds that his inventory
is rapidly growing. Everybody is selling to the dealer. He should first lower the bid price
from $100.00 to $99.50 so that the sell orders fall and the inventory size stabilizes and he
can lower the ask price to make the stock more attractive to the customers. On the other
hand, if the inventory is shrinking, the dealer should first raise the ask price from $100.50
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and then raise the bid so that customer buying falls and a more reasonable inventory gets
built up.
c) Information theory of trading assumes that some economic agents are better informed
about financial markets than others are. This theory suggests that there are two types of
traders: (1) the informed traders who have special information and trade strategically
and (2) the uninformed traders who dont have such information but trade to convert
assets to cash or to rebalance their portfolio. These traders trade with one another and
also with the dealer. Two kinds of gains and losses come from trading securities: (1)
market gains or losses due to rise or fall in the market and (2) trading gains or losses
due to information costs. Investors often think that they are brilliant in picking stocks,
when it may only be a market gain. Only the informed traders make trading gains. The
uninformed traders make trading losses. The dealer always loses when trading with an
informed trader, who knows when to buy or when to sell or when not to trade. To protect
himself from the informed trader, the dealer (1) maintains a bid-ask spread, and (2) offers
to trade only a limited amount at the posted bid and ask prices. The dealer can widen the
spread to make it harder for the informed trader to make money. The dealer recoups
losses by trading with the uninformed traders. Uninformed traders include those who read
the Wall Street Journal and think that they are making informed tradesin reality, that
information has long been built into the prices. The more uninformed are the trades, the
happier is the dealerhe can actually lower the bid-ask spread.
Bottomline: On average, (1) the dealer makes zero profit (normal profit in economics
parlance), (2) the informed traders make positive profits, and (3) the uninformed traders
make negative profits. The dealer acts as a conduit through which funds flow from the
uninformed to the informed trader.
18
18
Gambler, a Kenny Rogers song illustrates this strategy well, You got to know when to hold them, you got
to know when to fold them, you got to know when to walk away, you got to know when to run.
19 For an overview of insider trading laws and prosecution around the world, see Bhattacharya and Daouk, "The
World Price of Insider Trading", Journal of Finance, 2002, vol 57, p 75-108. http://ssrn.com/abstract=200914
Chapter 1, Page 26
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If the markets are efficient and security prices reflect underlying information, then
why do people trade? Perhaps to earn a normal return consistent with the risk-return
tradeoff. Or, perhaps people have different information and thus different beliefs about
what the price should be. Remember again Mark Twains famous quote that differences
in opinion makes a horse race. When somebody gets too enthusiastic about an
investment prospect, finance academics sometimes caution, Do you think you know
more than the market?
d) Direction of trade carries information, so does trade size. Buy orders will put upward
pressure on prices. Large buy orders will move the price up.
Example: Suppose you are a dealer for a small stock in the NASDAQ. No analyst follows
the company and nobody is interested in the stock. An average of 300 shares trades each
day. Suppose you suddenly see a buy order for 10,000 shares on the NASDAQ system.
You will immediately infer that good things are happening to the company. So, you raise
both your bid and ask prices.
e) Informed traders make markets illiquid. Liquidity, a desirable feature of securities
markets, is hard to define. Its the ease with which an asset can be converted to cash and
vice-versa. In a liquid market, trades take place around existing prices, many limit orders
exist above and below the current price, small orders have little price impact, and orders
come rapidly to the market when an order imbalance causes prices to change. In liquid
markets, the spread is small. In contrast, informed traders take innocence away from
the market by placing surefire trades. When trading with the informed, the dealer loses
out on average. He has no option but to widen the spread and make the market more
illiquid.
f) Due to insider trading restrictions, the informed traders operate less in the stock markets
and more in the loosely regulated derivatives markets.
Example: When the options market opened in the U.S., stock-trading volume fell as many
traders moved to the options market. Competition as well as the departure of informed
trading tightened the spread in stock prices.
These concepts are quite relevant for analyzing securities, explaining markets, and
understanding trader behavior. They make you ponder about economic behavior in financial
markets and how to protect yourself from trading losses. But these arent the only risks that
traders face. We next discuss portfolio risk (as we define in finance) and the six major classes
of risks that the market regulators are concerned about.
1.4
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Risk is an elusive conceptits hard to define. While dictionaries typically define risk as
something bad that can happen; in modern finance it often means the fluctuation possibilities
of a variable, or default chances on a debt. In finance and business, risk can be defined and
measured in many ways, none of them completely satisfactory. But it does not hurt to try.
20
Portfolio Risk
One of the first things that you learn in finance is a much quoted pearl of wisdom: if you
expect higher returns, then you have to accept higher risks. Whether investing in a single
security or a string of assets that make up a portfolio, the return you expect to earn goes hand
in hand with the risks to which you are exposed. This portfolio risk, which is measured by
the standard deviation of returns, can be broken into two parts: (1) nondiversifiable risk that
comes from market wide sources, and (2) diversifiable risk that is unique to the security and
can be eliminated by careful diversification. Pioneering works by Harry Markowitz, William
Sharpe, John Lintner and others gave us the Capital Asset Pricing Model, the alphas and the
betas, concepts admired by market professionals and finance academics alike. But these
arent the only risks that concern the market regulators.
Websters New American Dictionary (1995) defines risk as Exposure to possible loss or injury. The
American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language defines risk as (1) the possibility of suffering harm or
loss, or, (2) the variability of returns from an investment, or, (3) the chance of nonpayment of a debt.
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Operations risk is the risk that a loss results from human error or deficiencies in systems
or control.
Legal risk is the risk that contracts are unenforceable or inadequately documented.
Credit risk evaluation is a subject of advanced research. Studying and managing market
risk, as we have emphasized before, is the subject of this book. Liquidity risk is a real
problem for tradersthey choose markets where they can easily buy and sell securities. We
have already discussed what makes markets illiquid. We assume away settlement risk in this
booka system of margins (security deposits) kept by investors and guaranteeing of
contracts by the exchanges eliminates such risk. In later chapters we will discuss how these
work in specific derivative markets. Operations risk is a reality one has to live withit can
be reduced by appropriate checks and balances. Legal risk isnt a problem for exchange
traded contracts, however, its a real problem in OTC markets. This topic is best left to courts
and studied in law schools!
In their jargon-laded report, the regulators cited the need for appropriate oversight of
derivatives trading operations by boards of directors and senior management, and the need
for comprehensive internal control and audit procedures. They also urged national regulators
to ensure that firms and banks operate on a basis of prudent risk limits, sound measurement
procedures and information systems, continuous risk monitoring and frequent management
reporting.
21
22
Value-at-Risk
While most of these issues are beyond the scope of this book, let us briefly talk about a
recent development in risk monitoring that has achieved wide adoption. This technique
known as Value at risk (VaR), was pioneered by Dennis Weatherstone, former chairman of
the Wall Street firm J.P. Morgan. He wanted a short daily report summarizing the companys
global risk exposure and an estimate of potential losses over the next 24 hours. VaR provides
this measure. VaR using historical price observations statistically generates a statement like,
We are 99% confident that we will not lose more than $X million in the next 10 days.
Regulators now require all banks to report VaR, which helps them determine whether the
bank is keeping enough capital to offset the risks its exposed to. As with any innovation,
VaR has drawn the fancy and criticism of finance academics as well as practitioners. A single
number that measures something as elusive as risk has both protractors and detractorssee
Jorion (1996) for a good introduction to VaR.
A major criticism of VaR is that it neglects individual risk sources and takes a blackbox
approach to risk management. Let us now examine some major kinds of risks that may affect
businesses.
21
Companies like the Moodys and the Standard and Poor assess the credit risk of a company or a security
offering by assigning a credit rating. The highest rated issues and companies have the lowest chances of default
a default being defined as missing out or delaying on a single scheduled payment. HJM model provides a
way of taking such credit ratings and building them in the pricing model (Jarrow and Turnbull, 2000)
22 Jorion (2001) discusses how industry handles these risks.
Chapter 1, Page 29
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P&G monitors derivative positions using techniques including market value, sensitivity
analysis and value at risk (VaR) modeling.
P&G uses interest rate swaps to hedge underlying debt obligations and enters into certain
currency interest rate swaps to hedge Company's foreign net investments.
P&G manufactures and sells its products in many countries. It mainly uses forwards and
options to manage the volatility associated with foreign currency purchases of materials
and other assets and liabilities created in the normal course of business (corporate policy
limits how much it can hedge).
P&G buys forwards and options to protect royalties and income from international
operations. It trades foreign currency swaps to hedge some intercompany financing
transactions.
P&G uses futures, options, and swaps to manage price volatility of raw materials.
P&G manages credit risk by not keeping all eggs in the same basketit spreads out the
risk by trading derivatives with a diversity of creditworthy counterparties.
P&Gs overall currency and interest rate exposures are such that the Company is 95%
confident that fluctuations in these variables (provided they dont deviate from their
historical behavior) would not materially affect its financial statements. P&G neither
expects significant risk from commodity hedging activity, nor from credit risk exposure.
How do we go about understanding and controlling these risks? Read on, for that is a
major purpose of this book.
Chapter 1, Page 31
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INSERT 1-1
DERIVATIVES USE BY CONSUMER PRODUCTS GIANT
PROCTOR & GAMBLE COMPANY
23
23
These excerpts are taken from the Financial Review Section as well as Note 6 on Risk Management
Activities in the Form 10-K filed on 12 September 2001 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission by
P&G This can be found by going to SECs website http://www.sec.gov/, clicking on Search for Company
Filings, typing in Procter & Gamble, and eventually clicking on 10-K filed on 12 September 2001.
Chapter 1, Page 32
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CREDIT RISK
Credit risk arising from the inability of a counterparty to meet the terms of the Company's
financial instrument contracts is generally limited to the amounts, if any, by which the
counterparty's obligations exceed the obligations of the Company. It is the Company's policy
to enter into financial instruments with a diversity of creditworthy counterparties. Therefore,
the Company does not expect to incur material credit losses on its risk management or other
financial instruments.
1.5
Summary
Derivatives are financial securities that derive their value from something else. A host of
factors has led to a surge in demand as well as a supply of derivatives in todays financial
markets.
In todays interconnected world, risks coming from different sources can make or break
businesses. Derivatives can both magnify risk (leverage and gambling) or reduce risk
(hedging). While gambling with derivatives remains common, most use derivatives to
remove some unwanted risk affecting their trade.
Stocks and bonds first trade in primary markets before hitting the secondary markets.
Derivatives on the other hand take birth, live, and die in secondary markets like an
exchange or an OTC market.
Exchanges have central locations where buyers and sellers gather to trade. Over-thecounter markets are diffused networks of buyers and sellers, brought together by
telecommunication connections.
Brokers match buyers and sellers and earn commissions for this service. Dealers trade on
their own account and survive by posting a bid-ask spread. The spread helps the dealer
defray order processing costs, maintain an optimum inventory, and protect herself when
trading with someone better informed than she is.
Hedgers use derivatives for risk reduction and the speculators accept risk with profit
expectations. Speculators can be further distinguished as scalpers, day traders, and
position traders on the basis of their trading strategies and how long they hold on to their
trades.
Along with market risk, the regulators are concerned about other sources of risk like
credit risk, liquidity risk, settlement risk, operations risk, and legal risk. Though
unglamorous, these factors can eat away profits and hamper the running of smooth
functioning derivatives markets.
1.6
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Information
You can find plenty of information on derivatives in academic journals, practitioner journals,
textbooks, scholarly books, research reports, newspapers, magazines, Internet websites, etc.
The top refereed finance journals like Journal of Derivatives, The Journal of Finance,
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Journal of Financial Engineering,
Journal of Fixed Income, Journal of Futures Markets, Mathematical Finance, The
Review of Financial Studies, and Review of Derivatives Research, regularly publish
articles on derivatives. You will also find studies on derivatives in journals like
European Financial Management, Financial Analysts Journal, and Financial
Management.
The bibliography at the end of this book contains books on derivatives and peppers the
list with brief comments.
Brokerage and investment banking firms like Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, J.P.
Morgan, and Salomon Smith Barney regularly bring out research reports on derivatives.
The Wall Street Journal, Investors Daily and several other business newspapers and
magazines frequently write about derivatives. Risk magazine has excellent research
articles as well as practitioners insights on derivatives.
A wealth of information is available on the Internetexchanges, government agencies,
companies and many other entities disseminate information through their websites. The
homepages for exchanges have market data, educational material, promotional materials,
and other relevant information. Type in an entity name or a keyword in a search engine
like Yahoo, and the websites will come popping up. Search engines also list interesting
websites under headings like Business, Finance, and Investing.
24
References
Jarrow, R. A., and S. Turnbull, 2000. Derivative Securities, 2nd edition. South Western
Publishing: Cincinnati, Ohio.
Jarrow, R., 2002. Modelling Fixed Income Securities and Interest Rate Options, 2nd edition.
Stanford University Press: Stanford, California.
Jorion, P., 1996. Value at Risk: The New Benchmark for Controlling Market Risk. Irwin
Professional Publishing.
24
Just as FDA (Food and Drug Administration) puts new medicines through rigorous clinical trials before
approval (so that you can think: That stuff must be safe, otherwise they would not have approved it), refereed
journals follow a process that tries to fairly evaluate research, making it safe for further consumption. The
authors send their paper to the editor of the journal, who removes the authors names from the article and sends
it to a scholar who acts as the referee. The editors decision to publish the paper heavily depends on the referees
report. In spite of flaws, this system of peer evaluation is the most objective system of judging the merits of
academic work.
Chapter 1, Page 35
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Jorion, P., 2001. Financial Risk Manager handbook 2001-2002. GARP. John Wiley & Sons,
New York, New York.
Miller, M., 1986. Financial Innovation: The Last Twenty Years and the Next. Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis 21, 459-471.
Smithson, C. W., C. W. Smith, Jr., and D. S. Wilford, 1995. Managing Financial Risk. Irwin
Professional Publishing, Burr Ridge, Illinois.
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charge higher commissions, but allow customers to place trades in many different ways.
They also give personal advice and research reports. Well, everything has its price.
We define different order types, which can be used to trade stocks, bonds, futures, and
options. Unless specified, an order is placed as a day order, which, if not executed, cancels at
the end of the trading day. Or, you can instruct the broker to place it as a good-till-canceled
order (GTC order), which stays in the limit order book (a book where orders pending
execution are recorded) until cancelled.
Come up with examples for each of the following using YBM as the security traded, the
quoted share price being $100.00 to $100.10.
a) Odd lot trading is when the stocks are not traded in round lots (multiples of 100 shares).
b) A market order (MKT order) gets immediately executed at the best available price.
c) A limit order must be executed at a stated price or one thats more favorable (give
examples of limit-buy as well as limit-sell orders).
d) A stop order or a stop-loss order (STOP order) becomes a market order after a certain
price is reached. A stop-loss sell order is placed at a price lower than the current price, while
a start-gain order is placed at a price higher than the current price
e) A market-if-touched order (MIT order) requests execution at the best available price after a
trade occurs at the price shown on the order or at a better price.
f) A discretionary order (or market-not-held or disregard tape, DRT order) is a market order
but the filling broker can delay it in an attempt to get a better price.
g) A time-of-day order specifies execution at a specific time or interval of time.
h) A fill-or-kill order or a quick order (FOK order) must be immediately filled or its
canceled.
i) An all or none order must be executed in full.
13. It has been observed in many countries that when options exchange opened, the volume
fell in the stock exchange but so did the average stocks spread. Explain such a phenomena
using market microstructure insights.
14. When the international regulators in their 1994 report defined risk, what definition of risk
did they have in mind? How does this compare with the risk definition you learned when
studying the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and other tenets of modern portfolio
theory?
Multiple Choice Question
Circle the correct answer in each of the following questions
15. Traders with superior information are most likely to trade in
a) stock market
b) bond market
c) options market
d) money market
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