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Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
3 mos moving
average forecast
---------8.00
7.67
8.33
9.67
11.33
12.00
Error
---------0.00
2.33
2.67
3.33
0.67
----
|Error|
---------0.00
2.33
2.67
3.33
0.67
----
1.8
Weighted 3 mos
moving average
forecast
---------7.7
7.7
8.8
10.1
11.8
Error
---------0.3
2.3
2.2
2.9
0.2
----
|Error|
---------0.3
2.3
2.2
2.9
0.2
----
1.58
Weighted Moving Average is good according to above calculation
Gas Demand
800
725
600
500
625
690
810
935
1200
1100
1-alphs =
0.7
Exp Forecast
800.00
800.00
777.50
724.25
656.98
647.38
660.17
705.12
774.08
901.86
961.30
Error
----75.00
-177.50
-224.25
-31.98
42.62
149.83
229.88
425.92
198.14
abs(Error)
---75.00
177.50
224.25
31.98
42.62
149.83
229.88
425.92
198.14
Fund Price
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
57 3/4
54 1/4
55 1/8
58 1/8
53 3/8
51 1/8
56 1/4
59 5/8
62 1/4
59 1/4
62 3/8
58
58 1/8
62 3/4
64 3/4
66 1/8
68 3/4
65 1/2
69 7/8
70 1/4
3 mos moving
average forecast
---------55 5/7
55 5/6
55 5/9
54 1/5
53 4/7
55 2/3
59 3/8
60 3/8
61 2/7
59 7/8
59 1/2
59 5/8
61 7/8
64 5/9
66 5/9
66 4/5
68
68 5/9
abs(Error)
---------2.42
2.46
4.42
2.04
6.04
6.58
0.13
2.00
3.29
1.75
3.25
5.13
4.25
4.21
1.04
3.08
2.21
----
a.
b.
c.
d.
Weighted 3 mos
moving average
forecast
---------55 1/8
56 5/6
55
52 1/2
54 3/7
57 3/4
60 6/7
60 1/5
61 3/7
59 4/9
58 1/2
60 8/9
63 1/2
65 3/8
67 5/9
66 5/9
68 4/9
69 2/3
1-alpha =
0.6
abs(Error)
---------3
3 4/9
3 6/7
3 3/4
5 1/5
4 1/2
1 5/8
2 1/5
3 3/7
1 1/3
4 1/4
3 6/7
2 5/8
3 3/8
2 1/9
3 1/3
1 4/5
----
57
57
56
55
56
55
53
54
56
58
59
60
59
58
60
62
63
65
65
67
68
Exp Forecast
3/4
3/4
1/3
6/7
7/9
2/5
5/7
5/7
2/3
8/9
3/8
3/7
8/9
4/9
1/6
3/4
3/4
2/3
1/3
1/2
abs(Error)
---3 1/2
1 2/9
2 1/4
3 2/5
4 2/7
2 5/9
4 8/9
5 4/7
1/3
3 1/3
2 3/8
1 2/7
3 5/6
4 2/7
4
5
1/4
4 2/9
2 8/9
----
3.19
3.15
3.13
Exponentially Smoothed forcast has good result than other option. It should be suggestable model for
Err:512
57 3/4
Independent
variable x
Dependent variable
y
Monthly
Construction
Permits
Monthly Carpet
Sales (1,000 yd.)
17
25
8
7
14
7
45
19
28
28
9
14
10
12
15
9
24
21
20
29
Regression Equatio
Regression Equatio
y=a+bx
If 30 construction p
What is expected c
Correlation Coeffici
orrelation Coefficient
0.43
7.75
20.70
0.75
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Ave. Temp
(degrees)
68
70
73
79
77
82
85
90
85
92
90
95
80
75
Regression equation
Regression equation
Correlation Coefficie
Coefficient of Deter
If average 85 deg w
What is expected ic
Equation
Problem 6
Coefficient of Determination
In the above problem, Coffecient of determination is .78. It means 78% data of x and y are
3.82
-176.89
orrelation Coefficient
0.88
oefficient of Determination
0.78