(PUBLIC REVIEW DRAFT) AACE International Recommended Practice No.

55R-09

ANALYZING S-CURVES
TCM Framework: 10.1 Project Performance Assessment

March 29, 2010

PURPOSE
This recommended practice (RP) for analyzing S-curves is intended to serve as a guideline, not to
establish a standard. As a recommended practice of AACE International, analyzing S-curves provides
guidelines for stakeholders of a project to evaluate the current status and trends of a project in a simple
graphical format.
S-curves are usually developed by a project scheduler or cost engineer and can be applied on a variety of
project types. The product is generally used as a project management and/or total cost management
(TCM) tool for graphic representation of project performance.
The RP provides descriptions of S-curves with the intent to improve understanding and communication
among project participants and stakeholders when preparing and analyzing graphics based upon project
schedule information. The RP describes different types of S-curves that may be generated from a
schedule provided the proper information is loaded into the schedule and the status of the information is
maintained throughout the duration of the project.
OVERVIEW
An S-curve is a graphic display of cumulative costs, labor hours, progress, or other quantities plotted
against time. The term derives from S-like shape of the curve, flatter at beginning and end and steeper in
middle, which is typical of most complex projects. Most projects start slow, accelerate throughout the
majority of the work and then slow down again near the end as productivity declines and work runs out.
The term S-curve can also be used to indicate an S shaped chart resulting from a cumulative likelihood
distribution. In this function, an S-curve is a tool of quantitative risk analysis which project management
would use to determine the possible dangers of any given course of action.
S-Curves are also called, cumulative distribution charts, velocity diagrams, and SPLOTS (S-plots.)
RECOMMENDED PRACTICE
AACE recommends that schedulers and other project team members develop and use S-curves to plan,
monitor, analyze, forecast and control project progress. Project managers should request that project
controls personnel produce and use this graphical technique as a tool for briefing stakeholders on project
status and trends in a quick and intuitive manner.
DEVELOPING S-CURVES
Prior to developing an S-curve, a project baseline schedule needs to be developed. The baseline
schedule should employ best scheduling practices (i.e. documentation of scheduling basis, start, finish,
no open ends, minimal constraints, a defined critical path, etc.). The baseline schedule should also
contain cost and/or quantity data information if that type of S-curve is desired. The S-curve produced from
the baseline early dates is often referred to as the target S-curve which reflects projected or planned
progress on the project if all tasks are completed on their original early finish dates. This curve represents
the best progress or productivity that can be expected.

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Common S-Curves:
A variety of S-curves exist, the most common being man hours versus time, and costs versus time. The
time unit used is typically monthly to coincide with normal monthly project statusing. Weekly and even
daily time units are also used. The smaller the time unit between readings, the smoother the S-curve
will be and easier to use for forecasting trends.
After creating a baseline schedule, a baseline S-curve should be generated. Baseline S-curves provide
the basis on which to compare a project's actual status to its planned progress. There are two types of
comparisons that can be developed (for simplicity sake figure 1 and 2 below reference hours but, just as
easily could be replaced with costs):

Figure 1 Target Plan Man Hours vs. Actual Man Hours Expenditure

Figure 2 Target Plan Man Hours vs. Earned Man Hours (Based on Plan)
The two comparisons can be combined with a target or earned vs. actual comparison which can provide
insight as to manpower and financial resources required to complete the project.
Schedules with status applied to them are called updated schedules. One can produce the same type of
S-curves as produced with the baseline schedule to track actual progress and to forecast upcoming
progress. S-curves produced from update schedules are typically similar but different than those
produced from the baseline schedule.
The baseline schedule provides target progress and man hours. The update schedule provides earned
progress and earned planned man hours. Payrolls or other man hour reports provide actual man hours
expenditures.

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Updated project schedules and payrolls/timecards provide the actual data that is then compared to the
baseline S-curves. This allows the progress of a project to be monitored and quickly reveals any
divergence from the baseline schedule. S-curves may also be used to depict project growth, slippage,
and progress.
S-Curves with Early and Late Dates:
Most scheduling software can provide the information that calculates the cost and/or quantity data in the
schedule over the both the early dates (forward pass of the schedule) and the late dates (backward pass
of the schedule). These are sometimes referred to as banana curves. The two curves will typically only
overlap at the beginning and end of the project. The envelope produced by these two curves represents
the range of possibilities that the project can expect if it is to be delivered on time.
This information can then easily be put in a graphical format as shown in figure 3 below:

Figure 3 Typical S-Curve with Early and Late Dates

Quantity S-Curve:
Another common useful type of S-curve found in the manufacturing and construction industries is the
quantity S-curve. It uses the production schedule and graphs the quantity versus schedule time. Here the
quantity information loaded into the baseline schedule which is tracked along with actual quantities. This
allows the progress of a project to be monitored, and quickly reveal any divergence from the baseline
schedule. These production S-curves may also be used to depict project growth, slippage, and progress
to date.

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Figure 4 Quantity Output S-Curve

PROGRESSING S-CURVES
Once the baseline S-curve is graphed and actual progress status information is obtained for the project,
the actual progress can be graphed along with the baseline or target S-curve.
The progress S-curve with the baseline/target S-curve provides stakeholders with information on
variances and trends. Earned value and performance information may also be generated and displayed
on the common S-curve graph. The variances in cost/quantity and schedule can readily be seen and by
analyzing the results relative to the baseline/target S-curve, forecasts can be made of anticipated
variations at completion.
ANALYSIS
S-curves based upon actual data can be used to monitor the project as its progresses and comparison of
actual progress to the projected S-curve helps to determine whether the project will be completed within
the time and budget limitations. There are several methods of analyzing the S-curve.
The three methods will be discussed in this RP are applying actual data, applying earned value and
applying earned schedule to the S-curve. The analysis method used may depend on complexity of the
project and contractual requirements.
S-Curve Analysis Applying Actual data:
The easiest S-curve analysis method to use is applying actual data to the S-curve. This provides an easily
understood view of project status. Below are two examples of actual data applied to S-curves along with a
brief analysis for the curve.

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Figure 5 Quantity Output S-Curve

The above S-Curve suggests that since the actual data is below the planned value the project is behind
schedule. Any given actual quantity figure is only reached later than it was planned to be. Conversely, if
the actual data line was above the planned line, the graphic would indicate the project is currently tracking
ahead of schedule.

Figure 6 Early/Late Date S-Curve with Actual Progress

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In the above example, the actual data is plotted along with the early and late date information from the
schedule. The analysis of this graph indicates that as long as the actual data falls between the early and
late dates and the forecasted completion is on or before the end date, the project is in good standing.
This plot does not guarantee project success; it only indicates that the actual work appears to be within
planned boundaries.
S-Curve Analysis Earned Value:
Another common method of analysis of the S-curve for a project is with earned value. Earned value
management is a method of integrating scope, schedule, and resources into a discrete set of numbers
and then objectively measuring the project performance and progress using these values. Below are two
examples of applying actual and earned data to S-curves along with a brief analysis of the curve.

Figure 7 Earned Value S-Curve

In figure 7 above, the planned line is the performance baseline from the schedule and is considered the
primary S-curve being analyzed. The figure above shows the project currently anticipates an early finish
but with additional costs or quantities from the performance baseline. This information should be
evaluated with the project stakeholders to determine if this is the best course for the project.
Figure 8 depicts a hypothetical situation where a known problem and its projected impact are being
considered.

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Figure 8 Earned Value S-Curve

In the above graph, the planned line is the performance baseline from the schedule and is considered
the primary S-curve being analyzed. The graph above shows the project currently anticipates a cost or
quantity overrun, together with possible corrective action(s) as well as finishing beyond the original
planned finish date. The reason for the delay and forecast overrun should be brought to the project
stakeholders to determine the best course of action for the project.
S-Curve Analysis Earned Schedule:
The concept of earned schedule is one where earned value is converted to progress in time along the
projected baseline progress curve. This computation indicates what the date should be if earned progress
were proceeding exactly according to plan. The comparison of the earned progress date and the status
date will reveal how many days the project is behind or ahead.

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Figure 9 Earned Schedule S-Curve

The planned line is the performance baseline from the schedule and is considered the primary S-curve
being analyzed. The time variance between the planned and earned determines the forecasted
completion date for the project.
S-Curve Analysis Cautions:
It is possible for S-curve information to mislead the reader instead of being instructive. For example, if the
project is tracking costs and has pre-ordered several high ticket items, then the cost S-curve will show
excellent progress regardless of the current status of the critical work. In another example, poor
productivity will also show a high cost S-curve while schedule progress will be lower than expected.
Progress S-curves indicate cumulative progress of all work, not just critical work. The project may be
behind due to over-emphasis on non-critical work at the expense of the critical work and still show
excellent S-curve progress.
The S-curve by itself and without any other project information (project status narrative, detail schedule
analysis, etc.) may provide a false view of the project. But used in conjunction with other sound project
controls practices, S-curves can provide project stakeholders quick and meaningful indications of the
overall progress of the project.
SUMMARY
There are several different methods to generate and analyze an S-curve for a project. The complexity of
the project, the project contract structure and value of the project are just a few factors in determining the
best type of S-curve that can be utilized on a particular project. The S-curve together with a CPM
schedule is a tool that may be used by the stakeholders to status, evaluate and forecast the project.
CONTRIBUTORS
Jeff Goodman, PSP (Author)
Timothy T. Calvey, PE PSP
Dennis R. Hanks, PE CCE
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Donald F. McDonald, Jr. PE CCE PSP

Hannah E. Schumacher, PSP
Ronald M. Winter PSP
James G. Zack, Jr., CFCC
REFERENCES
1. Hollmann, John K., PE CCE, Editor, Total Cost Management Framework: An Integrated Approach to
Portfolio, Program and Project Management, AACE International, Morgantown, WV, 2006.
2. AACE International Recommended Practice 10S-90, Cost Engineering Terminology, AACE
International, Morgantown, WV, (latest revision).
3. Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK
Guide), 4th Edition, Project Management Institute, Newtown Square, PA, 2008
4. Kerzner, Harold, Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling,
10th Edition, Wiley, Hoboken, NJ, 2009
5. OBrien, James J., Plotnick, Fredric L., CPM in Construction Management, 6th Edition, McGraw-Hill,
New York, NY, 2006
6. Hutchings, Jonathan F., CPM Construction Schedulers Manual, McGraw-Hill, New York, NY, 1996
7. Lipke, Walter H. and Kym Henderson, Earned Schedule: An Emerging Enhancement to Earned Value
Management, CrossTalk - The Journal of Defense Software Engineering, Hill AFB, UT, November
2006
8. Midori Media, The Mysterious S Curve, PROJECTmagazine, 2003
9. AACE International Recommended Practice 38R-06, Documenting the Schedule Basis, AACE
International, Morgantown, WV, (latest revision).

Copyright 2010 AACE International, Inc.

AACE International Recommended Practices