The Last 2,000 Years

When records of drought for the last two millennia are examined, the major 20th century droughts
appear to be relatively mild in comparison with other droughts that occurred within this time frame.
Even the 16th century drought appears to be fairly modest, when compared to some early periods of
drought. Although there are still a few high resolution (offering data on annual to seasonal scales),
precisely dated (to the calendar year), tree-ring records available that extend back 2,000 years, most
of the paleodrought data that extends back this far are less precisely dated and more coarsely
resolved. These records reflect periods of more frequent drought, or drier overall conditions rather
than single drought events, so it difficult to compare droughts in these records with 20th century
drought events. However, the 20th century can still be evaluated in this context, and we can assess
whether parts of the 20th century or the 20th century as a whole were wetter or drier than in the past
with these records. The studies below illustrate some paledrought records for the past 2,000 years:

The Last 500 Years

A gridded network of tree-ring reconstructions of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the last
300 years has been used to create a set of maps of the spatial pattern of PDSI for each year, back to
AD 1700. This set of maps enables an assessment of the droughts of the 20th century compared to
droughts for the past 300 years. An inspection of the maps shows that droughts similar to the 1950s,
in terms of duration and spatial extent, occurred once or twice a century for the past three centuries
(for example, during the 1860s, 1820s, 1730s). However, there has not been another drought as
extensive and prolonged as the 1930s drought in the past 300 years.
Longer records show strong evidence for a drought that appears to have been more severe in some
areas of central North America than anything we have experienced in the 20th century, including the
1930s drought. Tree-ring records from around North America document episodes of severe drought
during the last half of the 16th century. Drought is reconstructed as far east as Jamestown, Virginia,
where tree rings reflect several extended periods of drought that coincided with the disappearance of
the Roanoke Colonists, and difficult times for the Jamestown colony. These droughts were extremely
severe and lasted for three to six years, a long time for such severe drought conditions to persist in
this region of North America.
Coincident droughts, or the same droughts, are apparent in tree-ring records from Mexico to British
Columbia, and from California to the East Coast (See examples in the graph to the right). Winter and
spring drought conditions appear to have been particularly severe in the Southwestern U.S. and
northwestern Mexico, where this drought appears to have lasted several decades. In other areas,
drought conditions were milder, suggesting drought impacts may have been tempered by seasonal
variations.
For more information on 16th century drought, see Stahle et al., 2000.

Paleoclimatology and Drought

Paleoclimatology is the study of past climate. The word is derived from the Greek root paleo-, which
means ancient, and the term "climate" meaning the weather conditions over an interval of time,
usually several decades. Paleoclimate is climate that existed before humans began collecting
instrumental measurements of weather (e.g., temperature from a thermometer, precipitation from a
rain gauge, sea level pressure from a barometer, wind speed and direction from an anemometer).
Instead of instrumental measurements of weather and climate, paleoclimatologists use natural
environmental (or proxy) records to infer past climate conditions. Paleoclimatology not only includes
the collection of evidence of past climate conditions, but the investigation of the climate processes
underlying these conditions.
For more information regarding Paleoclimatology, please visit NOAA's Paleoclimatology Program's Education and Outreach pages.

How do we reconstruct drought from paleoclimatic data?

Records of rainfall (or other variables that reflect drought, such as changes in lake salinity, vegetation,
or evidence of blowing sand) are preserved in tree-rings, buried in the sediments of sand dunes and
lakes, contained within historical documents, and preserved in archaeological remains. These
recorders of climate are called proxy climate data - that is they substitute for rain gauges and other
instrumental recorders of drought. By analyzing records taken from these proxy sources of
paleodrought data, scientists can extend our records of drought far beyond the 100-year record
provided by instruments.
To reconstruct drought or drought-related variables from environmental proxy data, the proxy data are
calibrated with the instrumental record to determine how well the natural record estimates the climate
record. The mathematical relationship between the proxy data and the climate record is defined, then
used to produce a model. The model is then used to reconstruct the instrumental record from the
proxy record for the length of the proxy.
How does paleoclimatic data help us understand drought?
Proxy records from tree rings, lake and dune sediments, historical records, and archaeological
remains have all provided information about past droughts in the United States. Each record provides
a piece of the puzzle, and together, they provide a more complete history than any one proxy would.
Historical records, such as diaries and newspaper accounts, can provide detailed information about
droughts for the last two hundred (mid-western and western U.S.) or three hundred (eastern U.S.)
years. Tree-ring records can extend back 300 years in most areas, and thousands of years in some
regions. In trees that are sensitive to drought conditions, tree rings provide a record of drought for
each year of the tree's growth. For records longer than those provided by trees and historical
accounts (and for regions where we may not find trees and/or historical accounts), scientists turn to
sediments from dunes and lakes.
Lake sediments, if the cores of the sediments are sampled at very frequent intervals, can provide
information about variations occurring at frequencies less than a decade in length. Lake level
fluctuations can be recorded as geologic bath tub rings as beach material sediments are deposited
either high (further from the center under wetter conditions) or lower (closer to the center under drier
conditions) within a basin as the water depth and thus lake level changes in response to drought.
Droughts can increase the salinity of lakes, changing the species of small, lake-dwelling organisms
that occur within a lake.
Pollen grains get washed or blown into lakes and accumulate in sediments. Different types of pollen in
lake sediments reflect the vegetation around the lake and the climate conditions that are favorable for
that vegetation. So, a change in the type of pollen found in sediments from, for example, an
abundance of grass pollen to an abundance of sage pollen, can indicate a change from wet to dry
conditions.
Records of more extreme environmental changes can be found by investigating the layers within sand
dunes. The sand layers are interspersed among layers of soil material produced under wetter
conditions, between the times when the sand dune was active. For a soil layer to develop, the climate
needs to be wet for an extended period of time, so these layers reflect slower, longer-lasting changes.
Taken together, these different proxies record variations in drought conditions on the order of single
seasons to decadal and century-scale changes, providing scientists with the information about both
rapid and slow changes, and short and long periods of drought. These records are needed to put
individual droughts in perspective, as well as to characterize droughts of the 20th century.

20th Century Drought

The Dust Bowl Drought
The Dust Bowl drought was a natural disaster that severely affected much of the United States during
the 1930s. The drought came in three waves, 1934, 1936, and 1939-40, but some regions of the High

Plains experienced drought conditions for as many as eight years. The "dust bowl" effect was caused
by sustained drought conditions compounded by years of land management practices that left topsoil
susceptible to the forces of the wind. The soil, depleted of moisture, was lifted by the wind into great
clouds of dust and sand which were so thick they concealed the sun for several days at a time. They
were referred to as" black blizzards".
The agricultural and economic damage devastated residents of the Great Plains. The Dust Bowl
drought worsened the already severe economic crises that many Great Plains farmers faced. In the
early 1930s, many farmers were trying to recover from economic losses suffered during the Great
Depression. To compensate for these losses, they began to increase their crop yields. High
production drove prices down, forcing farmers to keep increasing their production to pay for both their
equipment and their land. When the drought hit, farmers could no longer produce enough crops to pay
off loans or even pay for essential needs. Even with Federal emergency aid, many Great Plains
farmers could not withstand the economic crisis of the drought. Many farmers were forced off of their
land, with one in ten farms changing possession at the peak of the farm transfers.
In the aftermath of the Dust Bowl, it was clear that many factors contributed to the severe impact of
this drought. A better understanding of the interactions between the natural elements (climate, plants,
and soil) and human-related elements (agricultural practices, economics, and social conditions)of the
Great Plains was needed. Lessons were learned, and because of this drought, farmers adopted new
cultivation methods to help control soil erosion in dry land ecosystems. Subsequent droughts in this
region have had less impact due to these cultivation practices.

The 1950s Drought

Fueled by post-war economic stability and technological advancement, the 1950s represented a time
of growth and prosperity for many Americans. While much of the country celebrated a resurgence of
well-being, many residents of the Great Plains and southwestern United States were suffering. During
the 1950s, the Great Plains and the southwestern U.S. withstood a five-year drought, and in three of
these years, drought conditions stretched coast to coast. The drought was first felt in the
southwestern U.S. in 1950 and spread to Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska by 1953. By 1954, the
drought encompassed a ten-state area reaching from the mid-west to the Great Plains, and
southward into New Mexico. The area from the Texas panhandle to central and eastern Colorado,
western Kansas and central Nebraska experienced severe drought conditions. The drought
maintained a stronghold in the Great Plains, reaching a peak in 1956. The drought subsided in most
areas with the spring rains of 1957.
The 1950s drought was characterized by both low rainfall amounts and excessively high
temperatures. Texas rainfall dropped by 40% between 1949-1951 and by 1953, 75% of Texas
recorded below normal rainfall amounts. Excessive temperatures heated up cities like Dallas where
temperatures exceeded 100F on 52 days in the summer of 1953. Kansas experienced severe
drought conditions during much of the five-year period, and recorded a negative Palmer Drought
Severity Index from 1952 until March 1957, reaching a record low in September of 1956.
A drought of this magnitude creates severe social and economic repercussions and this was definitely
the case in the southern Great Plains region. The drought devastated the region's agriculture. Crop
yields in some areas dropped as much as 50%. Excessive temperatures and low rainfall scorched
grasslands typically used for grazing. With grass scarce, hay prices became too costly, forcing some
ranchers to feed their cattle a mixture of prickly pear cactus and molasses. By the time the drought
subsided in 1957, many counties across the region were declared federal drought disaster areas,
including 244 of the 254 counties in Texas.

The 1987 - 1989 Drought

The three-year drought of the late 1980s (1987-1989) covered 36% of the United States at its peak.
Compared to the Dust Bowl drought, which covered 70% during its worst year, this does not seem

significant. However, the 1980s drought was not only the costliest in U.S. history, but also the most
expensive natural disaster of any kind to affect the U.S. (Riebsame et al. 1991). Combining the losses
in energy, water, ecosystems and agriculture, the total cost of the three-year drought was estimated at
$39 billion. Drought-related losses in western Canada exceeded $1.8
billion dollars in 1988 alone.
The drought, beginning along the west coast and extending into the northwestern U.S., had its
greatest impact in the northern Great Plains. By 1988, the drought intensified over the northern Great
Plains and spread across much of the eastern half of the United States. This drought affected much of
the nation's primary corn and soybean growing areas, where total precipitation for April through June
of 1988 was even lower than during the Dust Bowl. The drought also encompassed the upper
Mississippi River Basin where low river levels caused major problems for barge navigation. The
summer of 1988 is well known for the extensive forest fires that burned across western North
America, including the catastrophic Yellowstone fire. In addition to dry conditions, heat waves during
the summer of 1988 broke long-standing temperature records in many midwestern and northeastern
metropolitan areas.
The 1987-89 drought was the first widespread persistent drought since the 1950s and undoubtedly
took people by surprise. Many had not experienced the 1950s drought and others had forgotten about
the harsh realities of drought. The financial costs of this drought were an indication that many parts
the country are now more vulnerable to drought than ever before. This increased vulnerability was
due in part to farming on marginally arable lands and pumping of ground water to the point of
depletion. Although surplus grain and federal assistance programs offset the impacts of the 1987-89
drought, these types of assistance programs would be less feasible during a lengthier drought.

Another Dust Bowl?

What is the likelihood of another Dust Bowl-scale drought in the future? No one is yet able to
scientifically predict multi-year or decadal droughts, but the paleoclimatic record can tell us how
frequently droughts such as the 1930s Dust Bowl occurred in the past or if droughts of this magnitude
are indeed a rare event. If such droughts occurred with some regularity in the past, then we should
expect them to occur in the future.