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Investment required: $6
billion over six years
Desired project outcome:
Would help GEs health-care
unit grow at least twice as fast
as the broader economy.
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GE s Point of View:
Would there be enough demand for their products to
justify the investment required in new facilities and
marketing?
What would be the potential financial risk if the actual
demand is far less than its forecast or adoption of
technology is too slow?
If everything goes as planned, how long does it take to
recover the initial investment?
Principle:
How fast can I recover my initial investment?
Method:
Based on the cumulative cash flow (or
accounting profit)
Screening Guideline:
If the payback period is less than or equal to
some specified payback period, the project
would be considered for further analysis.
Weakness:
Does not consider the time value of money
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Example 1
Pizza-in-a-Hurry operates a pizza delivery, they use,
two eight year-old vehicles for delivery, both of which
are large, consume a great deal of gas and are starting
to cost a lot to repair. The owner, Ray, is thinking of
replacing one of the cars with a smaller, three-year-old
car that his sister-in-law is selling for $8000. Ray
figures he can
save $3000, $2000, and $1500 per year for the next
three years and $1000 per year for the following two
years by purchasing the smaller car. What is the payback
period for this decision?
-$1000
-$2783
+200
+1200
+200
+1200
+1200
+1200
+1200
+1200
+1200
+1200
+1200
+1200
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$1200
$200
$200
0
3
Years
$1000
2.5 years
Payback period
1500
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
0
6
Years (n)
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Cost ($)
Uniform Annual
Benefit
($)
Atlas Scale
2000
450
100
Tom Thumb
3000
600
700
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$45,000
$35,000
$45,000
$25,000
$35,000
$15,000
0
1
Years
$85,000
Cash Flow
-$85,000
Cost of Funds
(15%)*
Cumulative
Cash Flow
-$85,000
15,000
-$85,000(0.15) = -$12,750
-82,750
25,000
-$82,750(0.15) = -12,413
-70,163
35,000
-$70,163(0.15) = -10,524
-45,687
45,000
-$45,687(0.15) =-6,853
-7,540
45,000
-$7,540(0.15) = -1,131
36,329
35,000
$36,329(0.15) = 5,449
76,778
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Machine 2
First cost($)
12,000
8,000
Annual NCF($)
3,000
1,000(years 1-5)
3,000(years 6-14)
14
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Inflow
0
1
2
Outflow
PW(i)inflow
5
Net surplus
PW(i) > 0
PW(i)outflow
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inflow
$24,400
0
1
$55,760
$27,340
2
outflow
$75,000
10
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10
$1,000
$4,211
11
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NFW is based on the equivalent worth of all cash inflows and outflows at the
end of the study period at an interest rate that is generally the MARR.
$55,760
$27,340
2
$75,000
Project life
12
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13
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14
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15
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A
0
P = CE(i)
Given: i = 10%, N =
Find: P or CE (10%)
$2,000
$1,000
0
10
P = CE (10%) = ?
16
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$2,000
$1,000
0
10
P = CE (10%) = ?
17
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Years
15
30
45
60
$500,000
$500,000
$500,000
$500,000
0
$50,000
$2,000,000
Solution:
Construction Cost
P1 = $2,000,000
Maintenance Costs
P2 = $50,000/0.05 = $1,000,000
Renovation Costs
P3 = $500,000(P/F, 5%, 15)
+ $500,000(P/F, 5%, 30)
+ $500,000(P/F, 5%, 45)
+ $500,000(P/F, 5%, 60)
.
= {$500,000(A/F, 5%, 15)}/0.05
= $463,423
Total Present Worth
P = P1 + P2 + P3 = $3,463,423
18
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15
$500,000
30
$500,000
45
60
$500,000 $500,000
19