Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Table of Contents
Introduction
About India Hedge Fund 2012
Globally hedge funds are an important pillar of the alternative asset management industry and a key
component of a sophisticated investors asset allocation. In India however, this asset class has been
virtually absent, partially because of the focus on long only investing and partially because of the lack of a
clean regulated hedge fund structure. SEBIs proposed AIF regulations however are poised to change this
and give the hedge fund industry a real chance to provide something new to investors and wealth
managers.
No financial asset class can grow without support from the entire ecosystem regulators, wealth
managers and investors and meaningful guidance on how to understand, evaluate and participate in this
asset class. India Hedge Fund 2012: Global Ideas, Local Opportunities is Forefronts small contribution
towards investor education on alternative investments. A focal point of this report is a detailed
breakdown of global hedge fund strategies that will find their way into the Indian markets. We hope this
makes for valuable reference material and great reading!
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Table of Contents
Hedge Fund Strategy Basics .................................................. 4
Evaluating a Hedge Fund ........................................................ 7
Strategy Drilldown .............................................................. 10
Equity Futures ...................................................................................... 11
Equity Options ..................................................................................... 17
Arbitrage .............................................................................................. 21
Commodities and Currencies ............................................................... 26
Multi Asset Class .................................................................................. 28
3|P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Whats Different?
Because of Indias regulatory structure domestic investors have typically seen only long only equities either
through a mutual fund, direct equity or PMS route. These strategies hold only cash equities typically for
the long term. Regardless of the investment process which can vary from bottom up stock picking to
purely system driven, these strategies are long only relative return strategies. Over the long term they
have done very well, and in general buy and hold strategies do well particularly in a growing equity market.
The issue, as many investors are discovering is, is the length of time and starting point. Market timing
when you buy is critical. Investors who bought in December 2007 at the peak of the markets vs.
investors who bought in October 2008 at the absolute low, will have a very different 5 year return on their
portfolios. Standing in December 2011, the annualized five year return on the NIFTY was 3.1%, a
depressing number for long term investors. As for the manager, the best they can do in a long only setting
is outperform the index if the fund declines, their portfolios will decline less than the benchmark.
Contrary to long only managers, hedge fund managers focus on risk adjusted absolute returns the
objective is to increase capital value rather than to beat a benchmark. Globally as a result hedge fund
managers charge performance fees on the absolute returns generated, whereas long only managers
charge only fixed fees. The heavy performance fee component keeps hedge fund manager incentives
aligned to investor incentives.
Hedging and leverage are two key tools used by hedge fund managers to generate positive absolute
returns. Hedging focuses on protecting the portfolio against sharp movements in markets. On the long
side the manager will buy assets that have good long term prospects and on the short side sell assets with
poor prospects. The latter can be implemented with futures and options in the Indian market. Hedging is
essential to keep the absolute return characteristics of the portfolio intact and generate absolute returns in
poor markets.
Since a hedge fund manager focuses on hedged opportunities that are immune to market returns, these
opportunities involve small trading margins. In themselves the small trading margins do not generate
4|P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
5|P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Weight
Return
Risk
Sharpe Ratio
Debt
30%
8%
1%
12.80
Portfolio
100%
15%
19%
0.79
Equities and debt are uncorrelated assets so combining them together in a portfolio yields a portfolio with
lower risk than equities, and higher risk adjusted return than equities. Now assume the client shifts 25% of
his portfolio to two hedge fund strategies for the sake of argument Strategy 1 (Long Short Equities) and
Strategy 2 (Long Short Commodities). Both these strategies deliver a risk adjusted return of 1.0 in the long
term, are uncorrelated to each other as well as to other asset classes like debt, equity and gold. The new
portfolio characteristics are as below.
Weight
Return
Risk
Sharpe Ratio
Equities
52%
18%
27%
0.66
Debt
22%
8%
1%
12.80
Strategy 1
12.5%
14%
14%
1.00
Strategy 2
12.5%
16%
16%
1.00
Portfolio
100%
15%
14%
1.04
By adding two new uncorrelated sources of risk, the overall portfolio risk has fallen from 19% to 14%, and
risk adjusted return has gone up from 0.79 to 1.04. Globally institutions enhance this simple example by
building a portfolio of many uncorrelated strategies, thereby maximizing risk adjusted returns.
6|P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Target returns
Clients invest for absolute returns so returns are one of the first parameters that should be evaluated. Its
important to understand the level of absolute return the strategy can generate and whether it is
meaningful to you as an investor. Because hedge fund strategies involve small trading margins they can
generate positive absolute returns, but the level of those returns may not be meaningful (for instance,
some arbitrage strategies consistently generate positive absolute returns but often in line with fixed
income rates). Its also important to understand the investment period over which those returns can be
expected because hedge fund strategies vary from very high frequency to much longer term. A poor
understanding of the time horizon only leads to frustration among investors and wealth managers. Finally
its important to understand what the returns will look like in different markets when the strategy will
perform and when it will not. No risk taking strategy is always up, and a prior understanding of when the
strategy doesnt work will make for a much more peaceful experience.
Risk
The importance of understanding risk in hedge fund strategies cannot be overemphasized enough. Risk is
best measured by the annualized standard deviation of the realized returns. As an example, a fixed
deposit has a risk of nearly zero and the NIFTY over 15 years has a realized risk of over 25%. By comparing
the risk of your strategy to asset classes like NIFTY, gold, as well as balance funds / monthly income plans,
you will have a good sense of what to expect as far as monthly and annual returns and drawdown
expectations. Quantitative or systematic managers will be able to give you an assessment of risk from
their backtest and fundamental managers should also be able to give you a target risk number. Hedge
funds often make investments with asymmetric payoffs, hence analyzing worst case drawdowns, value-atrisk and higher moments such as skewness and kurtosis are also important.
Leverage
Leverage and risk go hand in hand but they are not the same thing. A strategy can be very risky but involve
no leverage and vice-versa. Leverage is important to understand because in a leveraged strategy, one can
lose more capital than initially deployed. This will result in margin calls, which if not met can lead to
7|P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
8|P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Tail risk
Tail risk was an alien concept to investors until the financial crisis of 2008 when strategies with heavy tail
risks cost clients a fortune. Tail risk is the risk of a strategy losing large amounts of money when an
extremely unexpected event happens. The probability of the loss is very low but the magnitude is usually
very high. A number of strategies for instance appear innocuous but have large hidden tail risks. For
instance, options writing is a strategy that generates a very innocuous constant return but loses large
amounts of money when the market has a significant directional move. A manager should be asked if
strategies are insulated for tail risk.
Experience
While every strategy can be evaluated on quantitative and qualitative parameters, ultimately a strategy is
run by a manager. More so than other fields, genuine asset management experience in running the
strategy and trading it with client money will distinguish a manager in the long run. Experience will help a
manager focus on measuring risks correctly, giving realistic return expectations, protecting tail risk, and
picking up after a drawdown, which is inevitable in every strategy. Hedge fund experience is also very
different from long only experience because of the important role of risk management and the exotic and
complex nature of the instruments used.
Similarly buy side experience will outperform sell side
experience because hedge fund asset management raises complex issues that are difficult to see on a
brokerage desk.
9|P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Strategy Drilldown
Overview
The list of existing hedge fund strategies are countless and one edition of this publication cannot do justice
to them. What we have attempted to do is to look at the major global hedge fund strategies that could be
applied to the Indian markets in light of the new Alternative Investment Fund regulations. Given the
regulations are yet to take complete shape, we have not attempted to answer what is regulatory
permissible and what is not.
Our goal is to give investors and wealth managers a flavour of what can and may be done. We have also
evaluated these strategies on the basic hedge fund evaluation parameters so that clients and wealth
managers know what to look out for. The classes of strategies covered are:
Strategy
130-30 Equities
Long Short Equities
Short Biased Equities
Directional Equities
Pairs Trading
Managed Futures
Buy-Write Equities
Volatility Trading
Correlation Trading
Black Swan Protection
Cash Futures Arbitrage
Pure Arbitrage
Commodity Arbitrage
Statistical Arbitrage
Event Arbitrage
Long Short Commodities
Long Short Currencies
Tactical Asset Allocation
Asset Allocation
Category
Equity Futures
High
Equities
Med High
Absolute Return
High
Equities
High
Absolute Return
Med
Absolute Return
High
Absolute Return
Equity Options
Med High
Equities
High
Absolute Return
High
Absolute Return
Limited
Insurance
Arbitrage
Low
Fixed Income
Low
Fixed Income
Low
Fixed Income
Med High
Absolute Return
Med High
Absolute Return
Commodities and Currencies
Med High
Absolute Return
Med High
Absolute Return
Multi Class
Med
Absolute Return
Risk
Leverage
Time
Horizon
0.9 1.0
0.0 0.6
-1.0 0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.6 x
1x 2.5x
Max: 2x
Max: 1x
Depends
1x 2.5x
3 yrs.
18 mo.
3 yrs.
1-2 yrs.
18 mo.
18 mo.
0.6 1.0
0.0
0.0
Negative
1x - 2x
1x 1.5x
1x 1.5x
Max: 1x
3 yrs.
18 mo.
18 mo.
3 yrs.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Max: 2x
Depends
Max: 2x
Depends
Max: 1x
3-6 mo.
3-6 mo.
3-6 mo.
18 mo.
18 mo.
0.0
0.0
1x 1.5x
2x 5x
18 mo.
18 mo.
0.0 0.5
1x 2x
18 mo.
Beta
10 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Equity Futures
130-30 Equities
Characteristic
Description
Strategy
Description
A mutual fund is limited to holding no more than 10% in a single stock and not taking
net short positions in stocks. 130/30 Equity relaxes these constraints by allowing
managers to invest more than 10% in high conviction ideas and create additional
alpha by shorting stocks that they are bearish on.
If a long-only manager has skill in beating his benchmark, then giving him more
freedom to express his views on high conviction ideas and short side ideas should
lead to higher outperformance.
Long: Single stock futures or cash equities
Short: Single stock futures
Long a diversified portfolio of fundamentally strong stocks, short stocks that are
overvalued or that have weak fundamentals.
0.9 1.0
Cash management is important especially if a large portion of the portfolios long
positions are held in cash equities.
Rising equity markets (in absolute terms) and when the managers stock and sector
picks are correct (relative to the benchmark).
Falling equity markets (in absolute terms) and when the managers stock and sector
picks go wrong (relative to the benchmark).
Equity like product for moderate to aggressive clients.
Fits into the equity portion of a clients asset allocation along with mutual funds.
Economic
Rationale
Assets Held
Sample
Position
Target Beta
Unique Risks
Performs
Well In...
Performs
Poorly In...
Client Profile
Asset
Allocation
Trading
Frequency
Is the strategy
opportunistic?
Leverage
Taken
Risk / Return
Profile
Investment
Horizon
Points to
consider
Portfolios are rebalanced at least once a month to coincide with the futures roll.
Since the portfolio views are of an intermediate term, portfolios will be similar
month-to-month.
No
Gross Leverage = 1.6x
Has a similar risk / return profile to the NIFTY or a traditional diversified equity
mutual fund. Should aim to outperform the benchmark over long periods.
3 Years
The managers stock picking ability and cash management are important.
11 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Equity Futures
Long Short Equities / Equity Market Neutral
Characteristic
Description
Strategy
Description
Long a portfolio of stocks that are undervalued and/or have strong fundamentals and
short a portfolio of stocks that are overvalued and/or have weak fundamentals.
Focuses purely on a managers stock selection and sector rotation abilities rather
than mixing it with market beta like in a long-only mutual fund.
Undervalued stocks with strong fundamentals will outperform overvalued stocks
with weak fundamentals over a market cycle.
Long: Single stock futures or cash equities.
Short side: Single stock futures or index futures/options to hedge the equity beta.
Rank PSU Banks based on their Price / Book ratios. Take long positions in banks with
low Price / Book values and short positions in banks with high Price / Book values.
Long-Short Equity portfolios are often run with a long-equity bias (i.e. Beta between
0 and 0.6). Equity market neutral is a special case of Long-Short Equities where the
manager targets a beta of 0 at all times.
The strategy presents operational risks because managing a book of 40+ futures
positions can be challenging if the managers systems are not up to par.
In fundamental driven markets, when there are flights to quality stocks and during
earnings if the positions are related to fundamental factors.
In speculative or junk led rallies. The strategy will also do poorly if there is a rapid
shift in a companys fundamental prospects.
Moderate (low-leverage) to aggressive (high-leverage) clients
Absolute return allocation.
Economic
Rationale
Assets Held
Sample
Position
Target Beta
Unique Risks
Performs
Well In...
Performs
Poorly In...
Client Profile
Asset
Allocation
Trading
Frequency
Is the strategy
opportunistic?
Leverage
Taken
Risk / Return
Profile
Investment
Horizon
Points to
consider
Portfolios are rebalanced at least once a month to coincide with the futures roll.
Since the views are intermediate term, portfolios are similar month-to-month.
No.
Leverage can be varied based on a clients risk profile. A long-short portfolio with
gross leverage of 1x has an annualized risk of 5% (similar to an aggressive monthly
income plan). A portfolio with gross leverage of 2.5x has an annualized risk of 12.5%
(similar to a balanced fund).
Should deliver 15%-20% with leverage over an 18 month period regardless of what
the NIFTY does. The strategy could be down in a given month or quarter.
18 months.
Investment process, portfolio construction and implementation are very important
points to consider when evaluating an equity long-short manager.
12 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Equity Futures
Short Biased Equities
Characteristic
Description
Strategy
Description
Economic
Rationale
Assets Held
Sample
Position
Target Beta
Unique Risks
Performs
Well In...
Performs
Poorly In...
Client Profile
Asset
Allocation
Trading
Frequency
Is the strategy
opportunistic?
Leverage
Taken
Risk / Return
Profile
Investment
Horizon
Points to
consider
The market is structurally biased to be long equities. The strategy attempts to profit
from companies that are overvalued, highly levered, have large pledged promoter
holdings, faulty accounting, weak management or unsound business models.
Single stock options and futures, index futures.
Short a diversified portfolio of stocks, long NIFTY futures.
-1.0 to 0.
Cash management is important because futures positions could suffer mark-tomarket losses if stocks remain irrationally priced longer than expected. Stocks could
also be propped up by unscrupulous management.
Bear markets, rising interest rate environments and when liquidity is tight.
Bull markets and speculative rallies.
Aggressive clients.
Equity allocation.
Monthly or whenever there are market opportunities.
Partially Segments of the market are always overvalued but stock specific
opportunities appear from time to time.
Max Gross Leverage = 2x
Similar to a short NIFTY position.
3 years.
The managers forensic accounting, stock picking ability and cash management are
important.
13 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Equity Futures
Directional Equities
Characteristic
Description
Strategy
Description
Economic
Rationale
Assets Held
Sample
Position
Target Beta
Unique Risks
Performs
Well In...
Performs
Poorly In...
Client Profile
Asset
Allocation
Trading
Frequency
Is the strategy
opportunistic?
Leverage
Taken
Risk / Return
Profile
Investment
Horizon
Points to
consider
The long-term beta of the strategy will be 0 but the strategy will have either long or
short market exposure at any given point in time.
Monitoring leverage is important because the strategy takes naked positions on the
market. The strategy has an element of tail risk because the market can move sharply
and suddenly against the managers position. Stop-losses are critical.
Trending markets. Reversal strategies will do well in range-bound markets.
Range-bound markets or markets with sharp trend reversals. Reversal strategies will
do poorly in trending markets or if there is a structural shift in a market.
Aggressive clients.
Absolute return allocation.
Weekly or more frequently.
Partially the portfolio can hold small or no positions if the manager does not have a
directional view.
Leverage will vary with the strength of the managers view. Leverage should typically
be less than 1x given the volatility of the strategy. A portfolio targeting an annualized
volatility of 10% will target an average gross leverage of 0.4x.
The returns of a directional trading strategy will be lumpy because it takes different
amounts of risk at different points in time. Statistically speaking the distribution of
returns will be fat-tailed or have a high kurtosis.
1 2 years.
This is a high-risk, high-return strategy.
14 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Equity Futures
Pairs Trading
Characteristic
Description
Strategy
Description
Economic
Rationale
When the prices of two highly correlated stocks diverge, a pairs trading strategy
attempts to profit from their convergence.
Highly correlated stocks that are in the same sector and have similar businesses must
move together. Prices can diverge temporarily because of demand/supply
imbalances but they must converge back eventually.
Single stock futures.
Long HEROMOTOCO and Short BAJAJ-AUTO in the ratio of 1.3:1
Assets Held
Sample
Position
Target Beta
Unique Risks
Performs
Well In...
Performs
Poorly In...
Client Profile
Asset
Allocation
Trading
Frequency
Is the strategy
opportunistic?
Leverage
Taken
Risk / Return
Profile
Investment
Horizon
Points to
consider
Zero.
Pairs Trading is exposed to event risk because the correlation between two stocks
can breakdown if one of them undergoes a structural change due to a change in
business, management or regulation.
Benign markets and when the correlations between stocks are stable.
Periods when there is stock specific news, event risk and when correlations break
down.
Moderate risk clients.
Absolute return allocation.
As and when opportunities arise. Positions are rolled monthly.
Yes.
Depends on the number of pairs.
A single pair trade position can have 75% of the volatility of the equity market. But a
portfolio of 5 pairs will have an annualized standard deviation of 8%-10% (similar to
the volatility of a portfolio of 1/3rd equities, 1/3rd gold and 1/3rd debt).
18 months.
Risk management including stop-losses and a qualitative filter to identify structural
breaks are important. How the hedge ratios are determined whether on a valueneutral, beta-neutral or volatility-neutral basis are also important.
15 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Equity Futures
Managed Futures
Characteristic
Description
Strategy
Description
Economic
Rationale
Long stocks with positive price momentum, short stocks with negative price
momentum. The strategy can also be applied to commodities and currencies.
Individual stocks display price momentum because of sustained buying or selling, a
tendency for investors to hold on to losers and sell winners too early and the
tendency for market participants to under react to market news.
Single stock futures.
Long stocks that have risen in the last 3 months, short stocks that have fallen in the
last 3 months.
Zero. The strategy could have positive or negative market exposure at any point in
time.
In India, managed futures runs the risk of being the last man holding if a stock is
being manipulated.
Trending markets and in periods of volatility.
Assets Held
Sample
Position
Target Beta
Unique Risks
Performs
Well In...
Performs
Poorly In...
Client Profile
Asset
Allocation
Trading
Frequency
Is the strategy
opportunistic?
Leverage
Taken
Risk / Return
Profile
Investment
Horizon
Points to
consider
16 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Equity Options
Buy-Write Equities
Characteristic
Description
Strategy
Description
Economic
Rationale
Assets Held
Sample
Position
Target Beta
Unique Risks
Performs
Well In...
Performs
Poorly In...
Client Profile
Asset
Allocation
Trading
Frequency
Is the strategy
opportunistic?
Leverage
Taken
Risk / Return
Profile
Investment
Horizon
Points to
consider
Selling out-of-the-money index call options generates income that helps a long-only
manager outperform his benchmark.
Cash Equities, Index Call Options.
Long a diversified portfolio of stocks, short NIFTY call options.
0.6 1.0.
Cash management is important because short call option positions could suffer markto-market losses.
Moderate bull markets and when implied volatilities are high.
Falling equity markets (in absolute terms), in sudden market rallies (relative to the
benchmark) and when the managers stock and sector picks go wrong (relative to the
benchmark).
Moderate to aggressive clients.
Equity portion of a clients asset allocation along with traditional mutual funds.
The cash equity portion of the portfolio is rebalanced whenever there is a change in
the managers view. The index options are rolled monthly.
No.
Max Gross Leverage = 2x but lower levels of leverage can also be taken.
Buy-Write Equity has a similar risk / return profile to the NIFTY or a traditional
diversified equity mutual fund.
3 years.
The managers stock picking ability and cash management are important.
17 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Equity Options
Volatility Trading
Characteristic
Description
Strategy
Description
Sell options when implied volatility is high. Buy options when implied volatility is low.
The strategy could also sell options on stocks with high volatility and buy options on
stocks with low volatility.
Markets go through periods of high and low volatility with volatility often reverting to
its average. Implied volatility also tends to be higher than realized volatility. Longdated options are often bought by structured product investors who are insensitive
to the implied volatility at which they are purchased.
Index and single stock options. Index and single stock futures for delta-hedging.
Short NIFTY 5400 April 2012 Call Options, Short NIFTY 5400 April 2012 Put Options.
Economic
Rationale
Assets Held
Sample
Position
Target Beta
Unique Risks
Performs
Well In...
Performs
Poorly In...
Client Profile
Asset
Allocation
Trading
Frequency
Is the strategy
opportunistic?
Leverage
Taken
Risk / Return
Profile
Investment
Horizon
Points to
consider
Zero beta to the NIFTY. Volatility trading has an asymmetric risk-return profile so
betas might not be an appropriate risk metric.
Short volatility strategies are exposed to severe tail risk they make a small amount
of money most of the time and lose a large amount occasionally. The cost of deltahedging an options book can eat away at the differences between implied volatilities
and realized volatilities. The strategy is exposed to gap risk i.e. the market can
move in jumps leaving positions unhedged causing it to lose money.
Calm market environments. Short volatility strategies do well when realized volatility
is lower than implied volatilities.
Volatile market environments.
Aggressive clients.
Absolute return allocation.
Daily.
Partially volatility trading often has a short gamma (selling short-dated options)
bias but positions can be taken based on market opportunities.
Leverage can be varied judiciously based on a clients risk profile (1x to 2.5x is
reasonable).
Volatility trading should target 15-20% over a 12-18 month period.
18 months.
Strong risk management, experience pricing options and skill in delta hedging are
important for volatility trading.
18 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Equity Options
Correlation Trading
Characteristic
Description
Strategy
Description
Economic
Rationale
Assets Held
Sell index options, buy single stock options in the same proportion as the index.
Sample
Position
Target Beta
Unique Risks
Performs
Well In...
Performs
Poorly In...
Client Profile
Asset
Allocation
Trading
Frequency
Is the strategy
opportunistic?
Leverage
Taken
Risk / Return
Profile
Investment
Horizon
Points to
consider
Index options are often overpriced compared to single stock options i.e. the implied
correlation of stocks when pricing index options is higher than the actual correlation.
NIFTY options, Bank NIFTY options and single stock options. Index and single stock
futures for delta-hedging.
Short NIFTY 5400 April 2012 Call Options, Short NIFTY 5400 April 2012 Put Options.
Buy at-the-money calls and puts on NIFTY stocks in the same proportion as they
appear in the index.
Zero beta to the NIFTY. Asymmetric risk-return profile so beta may not be relevant.
Short correlation strategies are exposed to tail risk because all stocks move together
in a market crash or sharp market rally. The cost of delta-hedging an options book
can eat away at the differences between implied correlations and realized
correlations. The strategy is exposed to basis risk if the single stock options cannot be
bought in the same proportion as the stocks in the index. Single stock options can be
illiquid. The strategy is exposed to gap risk i.e. the market can move in jumps
leaving positions unhedged causing it to lose money.
Periods when volatility is low and when actual correlations are lower than those
implied by option prices i.e. the performance of stocks is disperse.
Volatile market environments and when stocks move together i.e. realized
correlation is high.
Aggressive clients.
Absolute Return Allocation.
Daily.
Partially correlation trading often has a short correlation and short gamma bias but
positions can be taken based on market opportunities.
Leverage can be varied judiciously based on a clients risk profile. (1x to 2.5x is
reasonable).
Correlation trading should target 15-20% over a 12-18 month period.
18 months.
Strong risk management, experience pricing options and skill in delta hedging are
important for correlation trading.
19 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Equity Options
Black Swan Protection
Characteristic
Description
Strategy
Description
Economic
Rationale
Assets Held
Sample
Position
Target Beta
Unique Risks
Performs
Well In...
Performs
Poorly In...
Client Profile
Asset
Allocation
Trading
Frequency
Is the strategy
opportunistic?
Leverage
Taken
Risk / Return
Profile
Investment
Horizon
Points to
consider
Extreme events and market crashes happen more frequently than expected. This is a
strategy to protect an investors portfolio against large drawdowns.
NIFTY put options.
Buy NIFTY 4500 December 2012 put options.
Negative beta to the NIFTY. The strategy has an asymmetric risk-return profile so
betas might not be an appropriate risk metric.
The strategy loses money most of the time, hence client expectations have to be
managed carefully. Out of the money options are illiquid and difficult to exit. Long
option positions could expire in-the-money leading to an additional STT expense.
Periods of high volatility and in market crashes and panics.
Calm market environments and bull markets.
For patient investors of all risk tolerances.
The strategy is an insurance against a clients equity mutual fund and direct equity
holdings. It is belongs to a category by itself.
Monthly or whenever there are market opportunities.
No.
Maximum gross leverage = 1x. Typically leverage will be a lot lower because most of
the time the options will expire out of the money leading to the client losing money.
Black Swan Protection is an insurance strategy. Losses are limited to the option
premium paid. Gains are not capped but are infrequent.
3 years.
Patience and managing client expectations are key.
20 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Arbitrage
Cash Futures Arbitrage
Characteristic
Description
Strategy
Description
Economic
Rationale
Profiting from differences between the cash and futures prices of the same security.
Assets Held
Sample
Position
Target Beta
Unique Risks
Performs
Well In...
Performs
Poorly In...
Client Profile
Asset
Allocation
Trading
Frequency
Is the strategy
opportunistic?
Leverage
Taken
Risk / Return
Profile
Investment
Horizon
Points to
consider
Typically: Future Price = Cash Price x (1 + Short Term Interest Rate). However, the
futures price can occasionally trade at a premium to the price implied by short term
interest rates because of demand/supply imbalances.
Long: Cash Equities. Short: Single Stock Futures.
Buy Pantaloon in the cash market, Sell Pantaloon April 2012 futures.
Zero.
In a sharp rally the portfolio might run out of cash due to mark-to-market losses on
futures. This might force the manager to unwind positions before arbitrage spreads
have converged. If the futures position cannot be rolled over and the cash positions
cannot be exited, portfolio can be left with a directional exposure to a given stock.
Periods when rates on non-deliverable currency forwards are high because the cost
of FIIs hedging their arbitrage books becomes expensive. The strategy also does well
when stocks hit their FII ownership limits or when short term interest rates are high.
Periods when NDF spreads are low, when there are no frictions between the cash
and futures market or when short term interest rates are low.
Conservative clients.
Fixed income allocation.
Monthly or whenever there are opportunities.
Partially positions taken whenever there are arbitrage opportunities available.
Futures positions can be rolled monthly to continue to generate debt like returns.
Maximum possible gross leverage (Cash + Futures)= 2x. Gross leverage will likely be
lower because a cash buffer has to be maintained for initial margin and mark-tomarket losses on the futures positions.
Cash-futures arbitrage is an interest generating strategy that has the risk / return
profile of a liquid fund.
3-6 months.
Cash management, portfolio concentration and trading implementation is important.
21 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Arbitrage
Pure Arbitrage
Characteristic
Description
Strategy
Description
Economic
Rationale
Assets Held
Sample
Position
Attempts to profit from differences between the price of the same stock in different
markets or the price of a security and its synthetic.
The law of one price states that in an efficient market, all identical goods will have
the same price. Any deviations will be immediately arbitraged.
Cash Equities, Index and Stock Futures.
Exchange Arbitrage: Buy a stock on NSE and instantly sell it for a higher price on BSE.
Futures-Futures Arbitrage: Buy NIFTY, Sell MINIFTY in the ratio 2:5
Index-Constituent Arbitrage: Buy Bank NIFTY Futures, Sell the Bank NIFTY
constituents in the futures market in proportion to their weights in the index
Put-Call Parity Arbitrage: Buy NIFTY futures, Sell a NIFTY call, Buy a NIFTY put.
Zero.
The strategy has execution risk because of latency between the decision price and
the price at which trades get filled. Exchange Arbitrage has settlement risk because
trades between the NSE and BSE are not net settled. Index-Constituent Arbitrage has
basis risk if you cannot trade the constituents in the exact same proportion as they
appear in the index. Put-Call Parity Arbitrage has settlement risk if the options expire
in the money leading to an additional STT expense.
Periods when intra-day volatility is high or when markets are segmented.
Target Beta
Unique Risks
Performs
Well In...
Performs
Poorly In...
Client Profile
Asset
Allocation
Trading
Frequency
Is the strategy
opportunistic?
Leverage
Taken
Risk / Return
Profile
Investment
Horizon
Points to
consider
22 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Arbitrage
Commodity Spot Futures Arbitrage
Characteristic
Description
Strategy
Description
Economic
Rationale
Profit from differences between the spot and futures prices of the same commodity.
Assets Held
Sample
Position
Target Beta
Unique Risks
Performs
Well In...
Performs
Poorly In...
Client Profile
Asset
Allocation
Trading
Frequency
Is the strategy
opportunistic?
Leverage
Taken
Risk / Return
Profile
Investment
Horizon
Points to
consider
Typically: Future Price = (Cash Price + Cost of Storage) x (1 + Short Term Interest Rate
Convenience Yield). However, the futures price can occasionally trade at a premium
to the price implied by short term interest rates and storage costs because of
demand/supply imbalances between the spot and futures market.
Long: Physical commodities.
Short: Commodity futures.
Buy spot silver and sell MCX Silver July 2012 futures.
Zero.
In a rally the portfolio might run out of cash due to mark-to-market losses. Positions
might have to be unwound before arbitrage spreads have converged. If futures
position cannot be rolled and the physical commodity positions cannot be delivered
at expiry, portfolio can be left with a directional exposure. In the case of perishable
commodities there is also a risk of the physical commodity degrading in quality.
Periods when term interest rates are high, there is strong demand for the futures or
when there is a seasonal variation in the demand/supply for a commodity.
Periods when short term interest rates are low and when the demand/supply for a
commodity in the spot and futures market are in sync and predictable.
Conservative clients.
Fixed income allocation.
Monthly or whenever there are opportunities.
Partially positions taken whenever there are arbitrage opportunities available.
Futures positions can be rolled monthly to continue to generate debt like returns.
Maximum possible gross leverage = 2x. Gross leverage will likely be lower because a
cash buffer has to be maintained for initial margin and mark-to-market losses.
Interest generating strategy that has the risk / return profile of a liquid fund.
3-6 months.
Cash management, physical storage and trading implementation is important. Avoid
politically sensitive commodities. The FMC can halt trading in a commodity.
23 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Arbitrage
Statistical Arbitrage / High Frequency Trading
Characteristic
Description
Strategy
Description
Economic
Rationale
Assets Held
Sample
Position
Target Beta
Unique Risks
Performs
Well In...
Performs
Poorly In...
Client Profile
Asset
Allocation
Trading
Frequency
Is the strategy
opportunistic?
Leverage
Taken
Risk / Return
Profile
Investment
Horizon
Points to
consider
24 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Arbitrage
Event Arbitrage
Characteristic
Description
Strategy
Description
Economic
Rationale
Profit from corporate events such as FPOs, buybacks, delistings and mergers.
Assets Held
Sample
Position
Target Beta
Unique
Risks
Performs
Well In...
Performs
Poorly In...
Client Profile
Asset Allocation
Trading
Frequency
Is the strategy
opportunistic?
Leverage
Taken
Risk / Return
Profile
Investment
Horizon
Points to
consider
25 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Description
Strategy
Description
Economic
Rationale
Assets Held
Sample
Position
Target Beta
Long commodities that have are undervalued and/or have strong fundamentals and
short commodities that are overvalued and/or have weak fundamentals.
Commodities for which demand is strong or supply is scarce will outperform
commodities for which demand is weak or supply is abundant.
MCX Futures, NCDEX Futures.
Rank commodities based on their inventory levels. Long commodities that have
falling inventories and short commodities that have rising inventories.
Zero beta to the NIFTY, Gold, Oil, Copper or any individual commodity. Portfolios
could have directional exposure to commodities at a given point in time.
Agricultural commodities can be politically sensitive. Illiquid markets could be frozen
in an upper or lower circuit for a number of days. The FMC or exchanges could raise
margins forcing levered positions to be cut. Futures positions might not be able to be
rolled over leading to delivery of physical commodities. The cost of carry can be very
high due to commodities being in extreme contango. Net Rupee Exposure can leave
the portfolio exposed to fluctuations in the USD-INR exchange rate because the
prices of many commodities are determined in US Dollars.
Fundamental driven markets.
Unique
Risks
Performs
Well In...
Performs
Poorly In...
Client Profile
Asset
Allocation
Trading
Frequency
Is the strategy
opportunistic?
Leverage
Taken
Risk / Return
Profile
Investment
Horizon
Points to
consider
26 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Description
Strategy
Description
Economic
Rationale
Assets Held
Sample
Position
Target Beta
Unique Risks
Performs
Well In...
Performs
Poorly In...
Client Profile
Asset
Allocation
Trading
Frequency
Is the strategy
opportunistic?
Leverage
Taken
Risk / Return
Profile
Investment
Horizon
Points to
consider
Zero beta to the NIFTY. Can be managed with a net INR exposure or INR-neutral.
Portfolios with a net INR exposure will be exposed to flows between emerging and
developed markets and sudden flights to safety. Central banks could intervene in
currency markets. Currencies could deviate from PPP for a long periods of time.
Calm market environments for carry based strategies (long high rate currencies,
short low rate currencies). Macro/momentum strategies do well in volatile markets.
Carry strategies do poorly when volatility is high. Momentum strategies do poorly in
range bound markets.
Moderate (low-leverage) to Aggressive (high-leverage) clients.
Absolute return allocation.
Weekly.
No.
Leverage can be varied judiciously based on a clients risk profile. A long-short
currency portfolio with gross leverage = 2x has an annualized standard deviation of
10%.
Should look to deliver 15%-20% with leverage over a 12-18 month period regardless
of what the NIFTY does. Could be down in a given month or quarter.
18 months.
Past experience trading currencies, an understanding of fixed income and risk
management are important for a currency strategy.
27 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Description
Strategy
Description
Economic
Rationale
Assets Held
Sample
Position
Target Beta
Unique Risks
Performs
Well In...
Performs
Poorly In...
Client Profile
Asset
Allocation
Trading
Frequency
Is the strategy
opportunistic?
Leverage
Taken
Risk / Return
Profile
Investment
Horizon
Points to
consider
28 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
29 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
31 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
33 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
34 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
35 | P a g e
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT