Global Change: Facing Risks and Threats to Water Resources (Proc.

of the Sixth World

FRIEND Conference, Fez, Morocco, October 2010). IAHS Publ. 340, 2010.

335

Water scarcity in a tropical country? revisiting the

Colombian water resources
EFRAN DOMNGUEZ1,2, JAIME MORENO3 & YULIA IVANOVA4
1 Departamento de Ecologa y Territorio, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Transversal 4 no. 42-00 Bogot, Colombia
2 CeiBA Complejidad, Bogot, Colombia
e.dominguez@javeriana.edu.co

3 Maestra en Hidrosistemas, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Cra. 7 no. 40-62, Bogot, Colombia
4 Departamento de Ingeniera Ambiental, Cra. 5 no. 21-38, Universidad Central, Bogot, Colombia

Abstract An assessment of the Colombian water resources is presented that uses the water withdrawal and
water availability ratio as an indicator of the anthropogenic pressure on limited water resources. In this work
water availability is defined as the modal value of the annual runoff measured by the Colombian
hydrological network. The environmental water requirements are considered as additional water demand and
a statistical approach is proposed to define their magnitude. The mentioned approach leads to a variation of
the UNESCO water pressure index that is known as the Colombian water scarcity index and allowed to
determine places with heavy anthropogenic pressure over the local water resources in Colombia. Finally, the
scale issues are touched upon and a regional case and a climate change outlook for the scarcity index are
also presented.
Key words Colombian water resources; water scarcity index; water pressure index; water environmental requirements

INTRODUCTION
Rapid population growth, scientific and technical advances, and the inclination to grant a high
welfare level for society, increment the pressure over natural resources, especially on freshwater
resources. The incremental pressure over freshwater resources has encouraged several
international efforts that have led to standard procedures of water resources assessment. As a
major instance of such efforts, the International Hydrological Decade and the International
Hydrological Programme should be mentioned (Suares & Heras, 1968). As an important
contribution to these programmes the World Water Balance was built by the Russian Hydrological
Institute at Saint Petersburg. Therefore the methodology of this until today was meaningful work
promoted as the standard assessment to define the countries water resources (Lvovitch, 1969,
1970; UNESCO, 1971; Kalinin & Shiklomanov, 1974; Korzoun, 1974; Korzun et al., 1978). In
this framework, the water balance approach used to define global water resources is being
supported by UNESCO (UNEP/GRID Arendal, 2008) and at the same time, several regional and
local resolution works were developed (Scarf, 1972; UNESCO & ROSTLAC, 1982; Maidment et
al., 1997; Nicholson et al., 1997; Reed et al., 1997; Thompson, 1999; Australian Goverment,
2009). As a consequence of listed works nowadays, there are two major ways of water resources
assessment: (1) the direct estimation of water resources using data from the hydrological network
having a probabilistic treatment of annual water flows, and (2) an indirect determination through
the long-term water balance equation. More recent works integrate these two methods with some
mathematical model in order to have a more dynamic assessment (Oki et al., 2001; Alcamo et al.,
2003a,b; Viviroli et al., 2009). Regarding possible methods of water resources determination
Shiklomanov (1998b) recommends the use of hydrological network information where available
instead of water balance calculations, and defines the water pressure index as a more appropriate
indicator of the nations water resources (Shiklomanov, 1997, 1998a,c). The water pressure index
represents a water withdrawal and water availability ratio, being the first defined as the potential
annual water requirements for domestic, industrial, agricultural, livestock and other uses (Allen et
al., 1998; Duchon et al., 1991; Gleick, 1996; Lovelace, 2005). The water availability is a complex
notion that as a first approximation can be understood as the annual water volume that flows
through a defined domain (basin, country, region, continent, etc.), in a second approximation water
availability also relates to infrastructure capacity, basins environmental requirements and quality
Copyright 2010 IAHS Press

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Efran Domnguez et al.

issues. In the light of the above-explained framework for water resources assessment, the
Colombian water resources have experienced some kind of evolution. For the first stage, Colombia
established the country water resources as the mean annual water volume that flows through the
nations continental territory. The mean annual runoff for Colombia is 2100 km3 per year. This
enormous amount of water classifies Colombia as a water rich country and around 19701980 it
was a matter of pride for Colombian citizens that used to learn and replicate a world water ranking
where Colombia was fourth after Brazil, Russia and Canada. This apparent water abundance led to
misconduct where saving water and water demand control did not have a leading place in
Colombian development policies. However, water conflicts emerged with the economy expansion
and the term water scarcity became a common word in a tropical country. But, is it possible to
talk about water scarcity in a tropical country like Colombia? This work presents some facts that
explain the emergence of water conflicts in a country with a mean annual runoff of 1840 mm per
year, giving some guidelines to future water management in Colombia.

WATER RESOURCES INDICATORS AND THE SCALE PROBLEM

When analysing and comparing water resources the space and time averaging of surface runoff as
indicator of countries water availability led to hidden water conflict in the countries studied. As a
result of global water resource appraisals Colombia, and the whole continent, were shown not to
have water-related problems (e.g. see http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/globalmaps/01_
TRWR_CAP.pdf). Unless a detailed study is carried out, including not only the water availability
but also some indicator of the water withdrawal at the continental level, the continents water
conflict emerges. In this case the per capita water availability (PWA = V /N with V as the mean
annual water volume (m3/year) and N as the country population) used as a water resources index
can show some countries in Latin America with water constraints (see for illustration
http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/regions/lac/latamerfigs5.htm). But, even at such a scale
Colombia remains a no-trouble country because of the long term temporal aggregation of such an
assessment. Only scaling up the temporal resolution of the PWA analysis to a yearly basis allows
to detect the decreasing trend of PWA for Colombia fixing a water issue that has to be studied
deeper (Fig. 1). In order to have an index able to detect local water conflicts in Colombia the ratio
of abstraction to availability Rws must to be used. This index is also known as the Water Pressure
Index and relates to the Total Annual Abstraction (W) Domestic, Industrial, Livestock, and
Agricultural to the annual water availability (Q).
Rws = W / Q

Fig. 1 Per capita water availability in Colombia.

(1)

Water scarcity in a tropical country? revisiting the Colombian water resources

337

Usually Q represents the gross water availability and does not consider any environmental or
quality constraints. Q also ignores the level of the country infrastructure capacity. Thus the
Colombian Water Scarcity Index (WSI) is proposed to close this gap.

COLOMBIAN WATER SCARCITY INDEX

The WSI is the total annual abstraction to the annual net water availability (Qn) ratio (WSI = W /
Qn). Here, Qn can be treated as: Qn = Q(1 Rlf Rv), where Rlf is a reduction factor to consider the
critical flow that has to remain in the river to support the ecosystems health. Rv is a reduction
factor that accounts for flows variability as a source of risk that can restrict the abstraction target
producing water supply failures. This reduction is in fact related to the coefficient of variation of
mean annual flows (Cv = Q / Q ). For this water scarcity index, Q is represented by the modal
discharge Q0 instead of the long term mean value. Rlf is defined as: Rlf = Q0 / Qmin, 97.5%. Here, Qmin,
97.5% is the annual low flow discharge with an exceedence probability of 97.5%. At the same time
an annual low flow discharge is the averaged value of the daily discharges that are smaller than
70% of registered daily flows for a given year, so a time series of annual Qmin should be extracted
from daily data in order to calculate Qmin, 97.5% for a certain hydrological station. Following the
work of Xeflide & Ophori (2009) the vulnerability of a system can be presented as a function of
the coefficient of variation for annual mean discharges (R2 = 0.73, p-value<0.05) then an expert
recommendation for Rv is proposed (Table 1). The water scarcity index uses the same classification
of the water pressure index being a WSI<0.1 (10%) considered as low water scarcity that does
not imply meaningful water resource pressure. A WSI between 0.1 and 0.2 (10 20%) represents a
moderate water scarcity and reflects a situation where water availability can be considered as a
constraint factor for development. With a WSI of 0.2-0.4 (20-40%) water regulation should be
implemented and a medium water scarcity established. For greater than 0.4 (40%) WSI values
the water scarcity is high and strong regulation of water withdrawal and water demand must be
developed.
Table 1 Variability reduction as a function of the coefficient of variation.
Cv
00.2
0.20.3
0.30.4
0.40.6
>0.6

Rv
0.15
0.25
0.35
0.40
0.50

The water scarcity index requires a rigorous probabilistic analysis of the annual mean and low
flow discharge series. That follows the next steps: (1) randomness of mean and minimal annual
discharges flows is revised; (2) if randomness is accepted with a certain confidence level (e.g. =
0.5) for >90% of tested series stationarity is tested too. The series homogeneity is evaluated at least
for the expected value and for the variance; (3) a theoretic probabilistic model should be fitted,
revising the concordance hypothesis at the confidence level of = 0.05 passing two of three possible
fit tests (Kolmogorov , Pearson 2 and Smirnov 2). Also a mean absolute relative error
(MARE) of <10% should be required for the theoretic curve fit. (4) The required probabilistic
characteristic of runoff can be mapped in order to provide information for ungauged basins.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
In order to calculate the water scarcity index WSI a probabilistic analysis for 351 discharges series
was performed. This analysis showed that in the 87% of cases the hypothesis about series

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randomness is not rejected with a significance level = 0.05. With the same significance level the
series homogeneity in mean and variance was accepted for 86 and 85%, respectively. The fitting
process considered Normal, Log-Normal, Weibull and Gamma distributions for annual mean and
low flow discharges. The results showed, for the series of annual mean and low flow discharges,
the -distribution can be considered the best fit theoretic density curve (Domnguez et al., 2009).
For 70% of cases the MARE of fitted -distribution was <10%.
From fitted distribution modal discharges Q0 and discharges with and exceedence probability of
97.5% (Q97.5%) were derived and then mapped as surface runoff in order to provide information for
ungauged basins with a standard GIS interpolation procedure that produced the maps for the most
common hydrological situation ( Fig. 2) and for a low water availability year (Fig. 3). The latest map
in some way reflects the conditions that can take place during an El Nio phenomena for the zones
where El Nio produces runoff deficit in Colombia (Andean Region, Caribbean Region, Norte de
Santander, and the north Pacific region). The interpolation analysis showed a MARE for runoff
determination in ungauged areas of 30%. Nevertheless values of 5070% can be reached for zones
with very low density of hydrological network. To obtain the net water availability described,
reductions were applied. On average the total reduction applied (Rlf + Rv) was close to 50% of the
gross water availability; this amount of total reduction agrees well with the values reported for the
water environmental requirements for tropical countries (Smakhtin et al., 2004). According to this
work the maintenance of 50% of the streamflows allows a high level of ecosystem conservation,
preserving the river in almost natural conditions. A 30% water availability reduction will lead to a
satisfactory ecosystem condition.
For all Colombian municipalities potential values of total annual water abstraction were
derived, showing that for the country the potential annual water withdrawal can reach 13 000
million m3. The potential water abstraction is presented in the water demand map ( Fig. 4). In this
information framework we found that the water scarcity index reveals the water conflicts inside
Colombia better than the water indexes presented. The proposed scarcity index shows scarcity
conditions in regions with low water availability but high water requirements (Fig. 5). These
conditions become stronger for low flow years like years affected by the El Nio Phenomena (Fig.
6). Nevertheless, we found that the country has the required potential to cover water

Fig. 2 Annual surface runoff modal values [mm/year] (1970-2005).

Water scarcity in a tropical country? revisiting the Colombian water resources

Fig. 3 Annual Surface Runoff [mm/year] with exceedence probability of 97.5% (1970-2005).

Fig. 4 Potential annual water demand by municipalities in millions of cubic metres (2004).

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Fig. 5 Water scarcity index for modal water availability.

Fig. 6 Water scarcity index for low water availability conditions.

demands, even preserving a considerable amount of water to conserve the ecosystems health in
satisfactory conditions. To meet this goal and future water requirements new policies must be
established to manage the level of water withdrawals, to preserve the existing water availability
and to increase the country water management infrastructure.

Water scarcity in a tropical country? revisiting the Colombian water resources

341

CONCLUSIONS
The total water abstraction to net water availability ratio (the Water Scarcity Index) seems to be a
good indicator of the state of water resources for different countries. This index is able to delineate
regions with potential water conflicts, even for tropical countries where annual water availability is
greater than the world average water availability at several times. Nevertheless, the water scarcity
index uses information sources from hydrological and administrative domains. Such a situation
leads to a contradiction when defining the space scope for the studies because water demand
information is commonly defined over administrative entities, and hydrological information comes
from hydrological networks that works over basin domains which are not enough dense to define
the surface runoff for municipalities. The water availability reductions proposed here are entirely
statistically defined and perhaps provide an objective way to be established. Nevertheless there
could be another thematic defined methodologies that could be assimilated for the same goal (e.g.
habitat and economic water constraints estimations). The advantage of the proposed method to
define the total reduction of water availability is that it can be easily integrated with probabilistic
method for hydrological scenarios building under climate change conditions (Domnguez, 2007),
introducing the scarcity index as an integrated indicator to define the effects of climate change
process. Regarding the above-established water demandwater availability relationship as a final
point, it is concluded that water scarcity is possible even in tropical countries, but at the same time
it is necessary to conclude that there are integral solutions to deal with it. Three key points are
envisaged in order to handle with this apparent scarcity: (1) water demand control; (2) water
availability preservation, and (3) water management infrastructure development. Command and
control policies and economic tools seem to be necessary for steering the addressed key points. In
addition cultural shift must also be promoted.

Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge the support of the Colombian Institute for
Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Research IDEAM (http://www.ideam.gov.co) who
has provided the hydrological information required in this research.

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