March 03, 2015

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Volume 5, Issue I
Daily Exclusive

ORYZA Rice
Newsletter

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USDA Post Estimates India MY 2014-15 Rice

Exports at 9 Million Tons; Down 16% from
Last Year
Mar 02, 2015

USDA Post has estimated India's MY 2014-15 (October - September) rice exports at around 9
million tons (around 5.8 million tons of basmati and 3.2 million tons of non-basmati), down
about 13% from an estimated 10.3 million tons last year due to anticipated decline in supplies
from low production and competition from other rice exporting countries.The Post reports that
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the Government of India is unlikely to impose any export restrictions as feared earlier (due to
late arrival of monsoons and consequent reduction in production) due to high domestic supplies.
In fact, India's exports to Sri Lanka and other traditional markets in Africa and the Middle East
have surged since September 2014. Based on preliminary export figures from official and private
sources, the Post reports that the Indian exports in 2014 have totalled 10.88 million tons and
major export destinations were Saudi Arabia, Iran, Senegal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, U.A.E,
Nigeria, South Africa, and Guinea.
The Post forecasts India's exports in 2015-16 at about 8.5 million tons (around 4.5 million tons
of non-basmati and 4 million tons of basmati) on relative tight exportable supplies.The Post
estimates MY 2014-15 rice production at around 102 million tons (about 89.5 million tons from
kharif and 13 million tons from rabi), down about from an estimated 106.6 million tons in 201314, based on lower yields of kharif (June - December) and less acreage if rabi (November March). Planting for 2015 rabi rice crop as of January 30, 2015 has declined about 17% to
around 1.5 million hectares from about 1.8 million hectares last year. It estimates total paddy
acreage in 2014-15 at around 42.5 million hectares (38.2 million hectares in kharif and 4.3
million hectares in rabi).The Post forecasts MY 2015-16 at around 104 million tons assuming
normal monsoons.
India government procured around 2.774 million tons of rice in kharif Marketing Season (KMS)
2014-15 as of February 16, 2014. The government of India also fixed rice procurement target for
KMS 2014-15 at about 35.109 million tons rice, which include 30.050 million tons from kharif
crop and about 5.059 million tons rice from rabi crop. The Indian government procured about
31.839 million tons of rice during the KMS 2013-14, according to the Agriculture Ministry.
The Post expects the current-year new-crop rice procurement would be sufficient to meet the
government's minimum requirement for its public distribution system and other feeding
programs in 2014-15.Indias rice stocks in the central pool as of February 1, 2014 stood at
around 24.88 million tons (including a milled equivalent of about 17.43 million tons of paddy),
down about 20% from around 31.27 million tons recorded during the same time last year,
according to data from the Food Corporation of India (FCI).However, the Indian rice exporters
are expecting India to export only 8 million tons of rice in 2015 due to increased supplies from
Thailand.

Philippines Plans to Increase Hybrid Rice

Acreage to Achieve Rice Self-Sufficiency
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Mar 02, 2015

The Philippines Department of Agriculture (DA) is planning to increase hybrid rice acreage in
the country in order to achieve self-sufficiency in rice production, according to local sources.The
DA is aiming to plant hybrid rice in around 72,563 hectares by 2014-15 dry season and to more
than double the hybrid rice acreage to around 147,626 hectares by 2015-16 dry season. It has
earmarked a total of about P1.3 billion (around $30.1 million) - around P362.815 million (around
$8.2 million) for 2014-15 dry season, around P229.1 million (around $5.2 million) for 2015 wet
season, around P738.13 million (around $16.7 million) for 2015-16 dry season - for the
development of irrigation facilities as well as to subsidize hybrid rice production in the country.
The Philippines, which aimed to achieve rice self-sufficiency in rice production in 2013 had
missed the target due to two devastating typhoons. The country's 2014 paddy rice output has
increased about 2.87% to around 18.97 million tons (around 11.95 million tons, basis milled)
from around 18.44 million tons (around 11.62 million tons, basis milled) in 2013, according to a
report by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).The PSA is estimating the Philippines to

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produce around 8.55 million tons of paddy rice in the first half-part (January - June) of 2015, up
about 2.02% from around 8.38 million tons produced during the same period in 2014.
USDA estimates Philippines MY 2014-15 (July - June) paddy rice production at around 19.365
million tons (around 12.2 million tons, basis milled), up about 3% from around 18.822 million
tons (around 11.8 million tons, basis milled) produced in the previous year. It estimates
Philippines 2014-15 milled rice imports at around 1.6 million tons, up about 10% from last year.

Thailand Rice Sellers Lower Some of Their

Quotes; Vietnam Rice Sellers Increase Some
of Their Quotes
Mar 02, 2015

Thailand rice sellers lowered their quotes for parboiled rice by about $5 per ton to around $400 $410 per ton today. Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for 25% broken rice by about $5
per ton to around $345 - $355 per ton. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly
unchanged.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton, about $40 per ton premium on
Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $365 - $375 per ton. India 5% rice is quoted at around $390 $400 per ton, about $55 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice quoted at around $335 - $345 per
ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is quoted at around $365 - $375 per ton, about $20 per ton premium on
Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $345- $355 per ton, up about $5per ton from Friday. India
25% rice is quoted at around $355 - $365, about $50 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice
quoted at around $305 - $315 per ton.
Parboiled Rice

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Thailand parboiled rice is quoted at around $400 - $410 per ton, down about $5 per ton from
Friday. India parboiled rice is quoted at around $385 - $395 per ton, on par with Pakistan
parboiled rice quoted at around $385 - $395 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $10 per ton
premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton.
India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $280 - $290 per ton, about $5 per ton premium on
Pakistan broken sortexed rice quoted at around $275 - $285 per ton.

Vietnam Begins Stockpiling of 2015 WinterSpring Crop

Mar 02, 2015

Businesses have started purchasing and stockpiling of

one million tons of the winter-spring crop in
Vietnam's Mekong Delta on March 1, 2015and will
continue till April 15, 2015, in line with the
government's directions to control price falls during
the harvest season, according to local sources.
According to data from the General Statistics Office
(GSO) in Vietnam, the Mekong Delta accounts for
more than half of the country's total rice production.
The government will assist the businesses with 100% soft loans for four months to buy rice
under the program. This is the sixth consecutive year that the government of Vietnam has
approved the rice stockpiling program during the harvest time of the country's largest winterspring crop. The government usually approves the stockpiling plan in the Mekong Delta region
during the harvest time of the winter-spring crop to stop price falls due to increasing supplies.
However, the program had not been a success because of the reluctance of the businesses to
procure rice. Most of them do not have adequate storage facilities, according to local
sources. Even this year, there are doubts if the program would be successful in controlling price
falls.

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The Vietnam Food Association (VFA) has set targets for the businesses to procure about 250,000
tons in An Giang province and about 175,000 tons in Can Tho province. Targets in other
provinces are relatively small according to local sources.Local rice prices have slightly increased
by around VND200-300 per kilogram (around $9-$14 per ton) to around VND4,200-4,600 per
kilogram (around $197-$215 per ton) from around VND4,000-4,300 per kilogram (around $187$201 per ton) a fortnight ago due to the stockpiling program.
Last week, Vietnam won contract to supply 300,000 tons of rice to the Philippines. The contract
is expected to push up the export prices of Vietnam rice, which have been dipping due to
increased supplies and reduced export demand. Export prices of 5% broken rice, 15% broken
rice and 25% broken rice varieties declined to around $370 per ton, $355 per ton and $345 per
ton respectively from around $385 per ton, $370 per ton and $355 per ton from the beginning of
this year.

Oryza Overnight Recap Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Begin the Week on a Positive
Note as Other Grains Provide Price Support
Mar 02, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery are currently listed 5.5 cents per cwt (about $1 per
ton) higher at $10.800 per cwt (about $238 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The
other grains are seen moving higher this morning: soybeans are currently seen about 0.3%
higher, wheat is listed about 0.1% higher and corn is currently noted about 0.1% higher.U.S.
stocks traded mildly higher on Monday as investors digested Chinese economic news and
awaited U.S. manufacturing data. ISM Manufacturing for February and construction spending
data are due at 10 a.m. ET.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.35% on
Saturday as deteriorating economic conditions forced the central bank to shorten the time gap
between policy moves. In the United States, personal income increased of 0.3%, while personal
spending fell 0.2% in January. Asian markets were trading higher Monday following the move to
stimulate the world's second largest economy. In Europe, stocks turned lower with oil prices.
Earlier, investors cheered data showing that deflation in the euro zone eased in February while
the rate of unemployment fell in January.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 36 points, or 0.20%, to 18,168. The S&P 500
gained 2 points, or 0.10%, to 2,106, with consumer discretionary leading six sectors higher and
energy the greatest laggard. The Nasdaq traded up 13 points, or 0.27%, to 4,976. Gold is
currently trading about 0.1% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 1.1% lower, and the U.S.
dollar is currently trading about 0.1% lower at 8:00am Chicago time.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Pull Back from Session Highs as
Bearish Grains Weigh on Prices
Mar 02, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery settled 5 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) higher at
$10.795 per cwt (about $238 per ton). Rough rice futures showed impressive strength throughout
the session, rallying to within 10 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) of psychological resistance
noted at $11.000 per cwt (about $243 per ton) during mid-day trading. However, during
afternoon trading the market backed off of session highs as bearishness from a steep selloff in the
other grains weighed on rice prices.
Todays market action is seen as a positive development and could trigger additional followthrough buying in coming sessions. The other grains came under renewed selling pressure and
saw closing prices well off of session highs noted during morning trading; Soybeans closed
about 1.7% lower at $10.1375 per bushel; wheat finished about 2.5% lower at $5.0000 per
bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.3% lower at $3.8800 per bushel.U.S. stocks gained on
Monday, with the Nasdaq briefly touching the psychologically important level of 5,000 and the
Dow reached a new intraday record as investors cheered U.S. economic data and an interest rate
cut in China.
The Nasdaq Composite last hit 5,000 during the tech bubble peak in March 2000. The index
tumbled in the months following to land at 1,108.49 in October 2002. The Nasdaq has only
closed above 5,000 twice, once on March 9, 2000, and once on March 10, 2000. The Dow Jones
industrial average also rose more than 100 points to set a new intraday record of 18,260.31
following mostly encouraging U.S. economic reports. In economic news, the U.S. manufacturing
sector had its best gains since October, according to Markit's final Manufacturing Purchasing
Managers' Index that rose to 55.1 in February from 53.9 in January. ISM Manufacturing for
February was 52.9, its slowest pace in 13 months. Construction spending fell 1.1% in January.

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Personal income increased of 0.3%, while personal spending fell 0.2% in January. The People's
Bank of China (PBOC) cut benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.35% on Saturday as
deteriorating economic conditions forced the central bank to shorten the time gap between policy
moves. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 126 points, or 0.70%, to 18,259. The S&P
500 gained 8 points, or 0.40%, to 2,112, with consumer discretionary leading seven sectors
higher and utilities the greatest laggard. The Nasdaq rose 27 points, or 0.56%, to 4,990. Gold is
trading about 0.2% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.7% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen
trading about 0.1% higher at about 1:00pm Chicago time.Friday, there were 1,062 contracts
traded, down from 1,908 contracts traded on Thursday. Open interest the number of contracts
outstanding on Friday increased by 56 contracts to 9,264.

India Rice Exporters Foresee 20% Decline in

2015 Exports Due to Competition from
Thailand
Mar 02, 2015

Indian rice exporters are expecting 2015 rice exports to decline by about 20% to around 8 million
tons (about 5 million tons of non-basmati and about
3 million tons of basmati) from around 10 million
tons in 2014 due to competition from cheaper
supplies from Thailand, which is planning to sell
about 10 million tons of rice this year from its
stockpiles, according to Reuters.Some exporters
expressed fear the government of Thailand may
resort to lowering of prices to sell the old rice in its
stockpiles.
They reminded that the Thai government sold 5% broken rice from old stocks at around $236$378 per ton in the latest tender compared to the market price of around $405. On the other hand,
export prices of India 5% rice currently stand at around $395 per ton.Reuters quoted some Thai
exporters as saying that the value of old rice depreciates and s always lower than the new rice.
Thailand is planning to auction about one million tons of rice on March 5, 2015. The government
sold about 500,000 tons of rice of the one million tons auctioned earlier this year.
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Some Indian exporters have expressed concern that lower exports would lead to higher stocks
and ultimately affect prices. India's basmati rice exports and prices have already been suffering
due to a temporary ban in rice imports by Iran, India's major basmati rice importer.Indias rice
stocks in the central pool as of February 1, 2014 stood at around 24.88 million tons (including a
milled equivalent of about 17.43 million tons of paddy), about 80% more than the required
buffer and strategic reserve norms of around 13.8 million tons for this time of the year, according
to data from the Food Corporation of India (FCI).USDA estimates India to export around 8.7
million tons of rice in 2015, down about 14% from an estimated 10.15 million tons exported in
2014.

Ghana Receives $145 Million Grant from

World Bank and USAID to Develop Rice
Sector
Mar 02, 2015

The government of Ghana has received

a grant of about $145 million - $100
million from World Bank and $45
million from the United States Agency
for International Development - for the
development and commercialization of
the country's rice sector, according to
local sources.The country's Food and
Agriculture Minister was quoted as
saying that the government would use
the grant to develop the rice value
chain in order to boost rice production
and reduce imports. Speaking at the Ghana Commercial Agriculture Project (GCAP) Investor
Conference in Tamale, he noted that the grant would be specifically used to implement the
GCAP projects in the Accra Plains and the Savannah Accelerated Development Authority
(SADA) zones.
The government is reportedly inviting investors to invest in commercial rice production in
certain areas such as the Nasia-Nabogo valley in the Savelugu/Nanton Municipality of the
Northern Region, for the next five years and is planning to support them with improved irrigation
facilities. However, it wants the investors to integrate the entire rice value chain from
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smallholder farmers to the end customer for the next five years. The government also sought
investors' support in the design and construction of irrigation facilities.Ghana produces only 30%
of its annual consumption needs of around one million tons and imports the rest. The government
is currently planning to increase rice production by about 20% per annum over the next four
years to make the country self-sufficient in rice and subsequently ban rice imports.
According to the USDA, Ghanas rice production is estimated at about 330,000 tons (milled
basis) in MY 2014-15 (October - September). The U.S. agency expects Ghana to import 620,000
tons of rice during the year to meet consumption needs of around one million tons of rice.

What Does the 2015-16 Budget Mean for

Indian Rice Sector?
Mar 01, 2015

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India's rice sector can definitely cheer about few aspects such an extended rural credit limit, an
introduction of National Unified Agricultural Market and special focus on micro-irrigation and
watershed programs, highlighted in the 2015-16 Budget, but a few of new measures, such as
cutting down the Central Government's share in agriculture sector by about 10.4% to around
Rs.28,050 crore (around $4.5 billion) from around Rs.31,322 crore (around $5 billion) last year
and asking the State governments to fill in the gap is something that seems to be worrisome,
according to some analysts.
The government's plan to increase the agriculture credit target by Rs.50,000 crore (around $8
billion) to around Rs.8.5 lakh crore (around $137 billion) for the 2015-16 fiscal year (April March) is expected to enhance liquidity to a higher number of rice farmers. In order to support
small and marginal farmers, the government has also allocated Rs.25,000 crore (around $4
billion) to the Rural Infrastructure Development Fund set up the National Bank for Agriculture
and Rural Development (NABARD), Rs.15,000 (around $2.4 billion) towards long-term rural
credit fund, Rs.45,000 crore (around $7.3 billion) for short-term cooperative rural credit
refinance fund and Rs.15,000 crore (around $4 billion) for short-term Regional Rural Banks
(RRB) refinance fund.
Currently farmers can avail crop loans up to Rs.3 lakh at an interest rate of 7%. However, the
effective rate of interest to farmers who pay loans at right time comes to only 4%. The
government proposed to support various projects such as Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana
(scheme to support organic farming) and Pradhanmantri Gram Sinchai Yojana (scheme to
support micro-irrigation) to address the development of soil and water resources. It allocated
Rs.5,300 crore to support micro-irrigation, watershed development and the Pradhan Mantri
Krishi Sinchai Yojana (scheme to improve the quality of soil and quantity of water). These
schemes are expected to help rice farmers in maintaining good soil health and deciding over the
right use of fertilizers. In the 2014-15 budget, a soil health card was launched to help farmers
improve soil fertility on a sustainable basis.The proposal of the creation of a National
Agriculture Market is expected to provide rice farmers with higher incomes. The government
proposed to eventually increase irrigation area, improve irrigation facilities as well as promote
agro-based industries to help farmers get higher farm incomes.On the subsidies front, the
government proposed to revamp the existing food grain subsidy regime and increase the
beneficiaries of direct transfer of benefits to about 10.3 crore from the existing 1 crore.However,
the Central government has proposed to reduce its share under irrigation and other centrally
sponsored schemes such as the Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY) and the National Food
Security Mission (NFSM) by nearly Rs.5,500 crore (around $8.89 billion) and has asked state
governments to fill in this gap through increased tax devolutions awarded to them recently.
Analysts are doubtful how this transition works and whether it would provide desired results.

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