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HO M E > SM A RT GRI D > DI STRI B U TI O N M A NA GEM ENT SYSTEM S > GI S B O O STS T& D P LA NNI NG FO R A SSET M A NA GEM ENT

GIS BOOSTS T&D PLANNING FOR ASSET

MANAGEMENT

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Jessica C. Noonan and Amy L. Johnson, PacifiCorp | T&D World Magazine

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Oct. 1, 2005
COMMENTS

THE ASSET MANAGEMENT INFRASTRUCTURE

PLANNING ORGANIZATION OF PACIFICORP has
adopted geographic information systems (GIS)-based
spatial-load forecasting for high-growth areas of its service
territory. This method is giving PacifiCorp's long-term
planning efforts a new perspective.

Spatial-load forecasting moves network planning engineers

beyond spreadsheet-based trend analysis into the spatial
analysis capabilities of GIS. It gives geographic answers to the questions: Where will
demand grow, and where is this new growth relative to substation service areas? The
planning department can identify changing end-use patterns, predict future load centers,
identify substation property requirements, and ensure the most defendable and costeffective capital expenditures for substation reinforcement. This new approach has the
potential to improve our relationships with the communities we serve, developing a more
cooperative approach with our customers and improving service delivery. Long-term
forecasting will extend the planning horizon beyond five years, increasing the lead time
given to the permitting and land acquisition departments.

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WHAT IS SPATIAL-LOAD FORECASTING?

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Spatial-load forecasting uses GIS to merge distribution system data with land-use and
development data. The model uses data such as current land use, transportation
infrastructure, mountain slopes and urban centers to forecast the extent, location and
timeline of community development. Every land use is related to a predefined profile of
load on the distribution system. The model then translates the land use into a system-load
forecast, identifying where new load additions are to be expected. This analysis of the
community's projected growth helps target where infrastructure investments should be
directed.

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WHY SPATIAL-LOAD FORECASTING?

Spatial-load forecasting allows PacifiCorp's planning engineers to predict large load
additions to the system years in advance of other methods. Planning engineers typically
use trend analysis to forecast future loads, but they are now able to use the power of GIS
to visualize new load and system additions. It will help them determine where new
infrastructure should be added and inform others who need to know. This approach will
help the company's Property Management Department better acquire real estate, apply
for permits and acquire needed rights-of-way.
Spatial-load forecasting produces a forecast of electric load growth inside a region of the
service territory, suitable as a base for comprehensive transmission and distribution
expansion planning. Forecast results are used to predict future load centers, identify
substation property requirements, prioritize projects and obtain budgeting approval while
tdworld.com/distribution-management-systems/gis-boosts-td-planning-asset-management

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minimizing risk. Spatial-load forecasting also helps to explore the impacts of new
initiatives or localized development events, as well as demonstrates effects to the system
due to end-use changes, conversion from winter-to-summer peaking and community
redevelopment.
Spatial-load forecasting does have limitations. It is not a design package and does not
replace the knowledge and experience of T&D planning engineers. It is primarily used to
complement traditional approaches to system planning to challenge planning
assumptions. Spatial-load forecasting can support the transmission system planning
process but does not predict the routing of transmission lines. Spatial load can forecast
expected load demand in a way that creates productive interaction with the communities
being served.

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APPLICATION AT THE WASATCH FRONT

A greater appreciation of the value of spatial-load forecasting is evident through
PacifiCorp's experience in modeling its Wasatch Front Range. The forecasted area in
Utah comprises approximately 2000 sq miles (5180 sq km) with boundaries that include
56 cities currently served by 133 distribution substations. The area's population has grown
at a rate of 2.6% per year for the last 15 years, which has driven electric load growth. This
growth has been further inflated by conversion from evaporative cooling (EV) systems
(i.e. swamp coolers) to central air conditioning (AC) systems. PacifiCorp's spatial-load
forecast predicted the locations of large load additions due to rapid development, as well
as where AC conversion will likely occur.

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The spatial-load forecast consists of six main steps to the model setup. The following
briefly discusses these steps and the hurdles the GIS and engineering team encountered
while working on the project:
1. Determining the load classes

The initial step is to determine the load classes to be represented. The foundation of the
spatial-load forecast is a representation of the study region according to current land
use; however, to represent the regional load, land use is actually defined by its
consumer load class. A load class distinguishes customers based on energy
consumption, defined in kilowatts per acre and a unitized daily load curve. For
example, a typical land-use classification might be medium-density residential, and
the representative load class or customer class would be medium-density residential
with EV or medium-density residential with AC.

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This classification system allows representation of land uses according to their typical
load profile and also allows changing end-use analysis. Load classes were selected
through analysis of substation SCADA data. The eight load-bearing classes used were:

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Medium-density residential with EV

Low-density residential

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Several additional nonload-bearing classes also were used to identify vacant available
lands, federal nondevelopable lands and municipal service areas not served by
PacifiCorp distribution.
2. Data resources and the land-use model

The land-use model represents current land use and development in the Wasatch
Front. Key to the land-use model is reproducing the current land use in the area, as
well as indicating the current development environment. In many cases, this is done
using zoning regulations that restrict or encourage particular load classes or that
restrict or encourage land-use-type development in certain regions. It is also
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GIS BOOSTS T&D PLANNING FOR ASSET MANAGEMENT | Distribution Management Systems content from TDWorld

important to model the land that is currently (or soon will be available) for
development. For example, it is possible that land currently considered nonvacant as
part of a large multi-acre parcel may be divided later into multiple vacant residential
parcels.
Initially, each of the individual cities were contacted to obtain current land-use
information. Unfortunately, many of the communities included in the study area did
not maintain accurate enough information to be useful in the land-use model. As part
of PacifiCorp's Real Estate Management GIS environment, parcel and ownership data
is collected from each of the counties served. Assessor data was also requested from
the counties. This allowed each individual parcel to be classified into a load class
according to its assessed land use. When assessor data was insufficient, current aerial
photographs were used.
Gathering information from city and county planners was critical in identifying
known developments and coordinating with master plans. Spending time with local
planners provided insight not otherwise available.
Cooling system conversions

The primary concern in the current Wasatch Front development environment is the
conversion of older homes from EV systems to centralized AC. This conversion is
generating a significant increase of the system electrical load. Therefore, it was
important to model this conversion in addition to new development.
Many assessors maintain a residential housing characteristic regarding AC. However,
the information is only collected when a home is reassessed. Additional data was used
in cases where an AC characteristic was not available, including square footage, year
built and total value. Homes built after 1995 with a square footage greater than 2000
or a total value greater than $150,000 were assumed to have central AC. These homes
were placed in the medium-density residential AC class. All other residential parcels
were placed in the medium-density residential evaporative cooling class.
It was important to simulate the end-use conversion in the residential class to show
the gradual increase in load growth, which is occurring independent of land
development.

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Additional development parameters

Much of the low-density residential and rural lands of the Wasatch Front will become
available for higher-density residential and commercial development in the future. It
was important to model the predicted conversion of these lands by incorporating them
into a redevelopment model as well. Those areas classified as low-density
residential/rural were coded to allow for redevelopment into any of the load classes.

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Future land-use drivers

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An activity center map, locating regions of employment or commercial activity was

used as a factor in the model to encourage residential and commercial growth in
locations that planners labeled as high-growth regions.
At this stage of the model it became evident that multiple growth scenarios would be
helpful. Running the forecast to show results of development scenarios allowed
investigation of the investment needs that may be required if a proposed event occurs.
Using these growth scenarios, the company was able to investigate the impacts due to
major development activities and proposed transportation corridors, both of which
substantially affect load distribution in the study area.
3. Load curve development

The load profiles or load curves represent the average daily patterns and usage of
energy as a function of time for a particular load class. This is used to build a load
model from the represented land use. Planners must accommodate peak load
conditions; consequently, planners need to know how loads behave during the system
peak. The first step in developing the load curves was determining the system peak
day. Next, hourly data was extracted from the company's system control and data
acquisition (SCADA) system for selected distribution feeders that were representative
of each load class. The final curves were presented to the company's metering group
for verification.
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4. Calibration

Calibration is the process of matching the model's calculated load for the base year to
the actual load on the system and substations. The goal is to achieve the best possible
match for the entire system and individual substations, both in magnitude and shape.
Matching the magnitude is only a first-order test, but matching the shape ensures the
correct type of load has been assigned to each area.
The actual 24-hour-per-unit load curves for each selected substation were obtained
from SCADA for the 2003 system peak day. The calculated 24-hour load curves
require three inputs: land-use acreage by load class, per-unit load curves for each load
class and load multipliers (kilowatts per acre by load class). The only adjustable
parameter input to the calibration process was the load multiplier. This value was
adjusted within maximum and minimum set bounds until an indication of success
was met. Success was measured by the total load difference at the time of peak, time
of system peak, average percent difference for substation peaks and time of substation
peaks.

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5. Growth rates

There are two circumstances that cause load growth: new customers and the
consumption growth of existing customers. In the former case, new customers are
responsible for the steep section of an area's S curve. In the latter case, consumption
growth drives the flatter sections of the S curve. Both types of growth had to be
incorporated in the model to accurately simulate load growth and changing patterns.

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6. Factors, urban poles and preferences

Any spatial-load forecast uses a model to simulate the effects of real-world factors to
systematically determine the extent and timeline of community development.
Forecasts use the theories of urban planning to predict the most likely locations of new
land development. To achieve this, the model's growth simulation was based on userdetermined factors that tend to influence a region's growth. Factors include
transportation infrastructure, locations of employment and commercial centers,
barriers to development and general land-use attractors or detractors.

The factors and development influences are mathematically combined to develop

suitability maps for each of the load classes. The suitability maps are used to match load
classes to their most suitable growth areas. For each forecasted year's growth, the model
uses the highest ranked locations on the suitability maps to assign new growth to that
particular area. The end result for each year of the forecast was a new land-use map
showing the predicted growth in the region.
INTERPRETING THE RESULTS

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After the model had been run for each of the forecast years, the new total land-use
calculations were broken down by substation boundary to determine the new growth
within each substation's service area. Acreage totals for each substation were then
converted to megawatt additions. To better understand the systemwide results, the
substations were grouped into significant zones according to the planning organization's
load flow base cases. The purpose of a spatial-load forecast is to forecast regional load.
However, that forecast is of little value without a measure of the impact the projected
load will have on the planned and existing infrastructure. Due to the enormous
complexity of the entire Wasatch Front electrical system, new infrastructure
requirements were evaluated on a purely quantitative level for the distribution
transformer level only. Results were analyzed to quantify needed additional capacity by
zone according to projected load additions. The results predicted capacity requirements in
30-MVA blocks, corresponding to transformer banks in substations. The results were
weather adjusted to look at extreme weather demands. Each zone was analyzed to a
standard utilization threshold, and infrastructure enhancement needs were forecasted for
each study year.
DELIVERING THE BENEFITS
Last-minute property acquisitions for new facilities can be fraught with conflict, resulting
in delays in the siting process. In high-growth regions, acquisition costs are lower when a
parcel is secured earlier. If the planning group can anticipate future load centers and
equipment utilization issues years in advance, property can be purchased earlier, at a
lower price and in a manner that can be incorporated into the local government's master
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planning process.
The principal benefit of PacifiCorp's spatial-forecasting approach is improved
communication. More insightful communication occurs between T&D planning
engineers, utility real estate agents and city planners. Spatial-load forecasting creates
more flexibility within the distribution system planning process. It helps identify future
load centers and changing end-use patterns.
Identifying substation property requirements earlier ensures the most defensible and costeffective capital expenditures for substation reinforcement. GIS is revolutionizing the
ways in which PacifiCorp can visualize and track the changing load patterns throughout
its service territory, and provides a basis for comprehensive transmission and distribution
planning.
Jessica C. Noonan is a GIS specialist at PacifiCorp, where she has prepared spatial-load
forecasts for the Wasatch Front, Central Oregon and Medford, Oregon, areas. Noonan
holds a master's degree in geographic information sciences from the University of Denver
and a bachelor's degree in environmental geoscience from Boston College.
jessica.noonan@pacificorp.com
Amy L. Johnson joined PacifiCorp as a planning engineer in 2002, after graduating
with a BS degree in electrical engineering from the University of Washington. She
provided the engineering data and analysis for the Wasatch Front spatial-load forecast.
amy.johnson@pacificorp.com
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