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3 263278
doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9957.2011.02241.x
June 2012
263..278
by
CARL GWIN
Graziadio School of Business and Management, Pepperdine University
and
DAVID D. VanHOOSE
Hankamer School of Business, Baylor University
This paper investigates the relationship between firm mark-ups and inflation. In sectors of the economy with industries characterized by flexible
prices and sticky wages, mark-ups should respond positively to inflation.
Industry mark-ups in sectors with both flexible prices and flexible wages
theoretically may rise or fall in response to an increase in the price level.
Mark-ups of industries in sectors of the economy in which prices are
sticky should respond negatively to inflation, with an absolutely larger
negative response occurring in sticky-price industries with flexible wages.
Empirical analysis of US industries provides support for nearly all of
these theoretical predictions.
Introduction
How does inflation affect firms profits? Most theories of the inflationprofits
relationship have focused on effects inflation has on the dispersion of product
prices across firms and resulting effects on firm mark-ups. Bnabou (1988,
1992a) and Diamond (1993) suggest that inflation induces consumers to
search for old sticker prices, which increases price dispersion but reduces
market power, thereby resulting in lower mark-ups. In support of this argument, Bnabou (1992b) provides evidence in favor of an inverse relationship
between inflation and mark-ups in the US retail trade sector. Kaskarelis
(1993) likewise concludes inflation and mark-ups are negatively related in the
UK manufacturing sector. Nevertheless, in the context of a monopolistic
competition model, Wu and Zhang (2001) reach a contrary conclusion: inflation decreases the number of firms in an industry and reduces relative firm
size, which leads to higher mark-ups. Van Hoomissen (1988) and Tommasi
(1994) conclude that inflation reduces the information that current prices
provide about future prices, and Tommasi provides empirical support that
inflation thereby results in higher mark-ups. Gwin and Taylor (2004) offer
evidence showing that these differing conclusions about the inflationprofits
263
264
265
266
wages are fixed in the near term in some sectors of the economy but product
prices are not, then an increase in the economy-wide price level generates
qualitatively the same impact on revenues as experienced in a FP/FW sector.
In a flexible-price/sticky-wage (FP/SW) sector, however, employment
increases, but the nominal wage rate does not, so the rise in the wage bill can
be more subdued. As shown in the Appendix, firms profit shares respond
positively to inflation in a FP/SW sector if labor supply is sufficiently inelastic
and the output elasticity with respect to labor is sufficiently large. Estimated
labor supply elasticities typically range between 0.1 and 0.5, suggesting that
this configuration of elasticities likely prevails and that mark-ups should be
positively related to inflation in a FP/SW sector.
In many industries, prices are posted in company price lists, in catalogs,
on websites and so on, and firms face menu costs of changing prices. The
macroeconomic implications of the price stickiness that results if a large share
of industries adjust prices sluggishly have been explored in considerable detail
in the recent literature (see, for instance, Gali and Gertler, 1999; Sbordone,
2002; Woodford, 2003). Estimates derived from macroeconomic data often
suggest that average US and European price-adjustment intervals exceed a
year, although Gwin and VanHoose (2008a) offer evidence indicating that
such estimates likely are overstated. Furthermore, Bils and Klenow (2004)
find that prices of about half of 123 categories of consumer goods and
services adjust within four or five months. In addition, Gwin and VanHoose
(2008b) provide evidence derived from US industry-level data that on average
firms in industries accounting for at least a third of total sales adjust their
prices in less than two quarters. Thus, product price stickiness appears not to
be as widespread as commonly presumed in the macroeconomics literature.
Nevertheless, considerable evidence suggests that short-term product price
stickiness exists in a significant portion of US industries.
In industries in which product prices are rigid but nominal wages are
not, when a rise in the economy-wide price level boosts nominal demand for
the sectors output, the failure of prices to increase will tend to restrain the
resulting rise in revenues. In a SP/FW sector, however, there will be upward
pressure on both wages and employment. Consequently, growth in the wage
bill will outstrip the increase in revenues, leading to the prediction that profits
will unambiguously decline in a SP/FW sector.
If both product prices and nominal wages are sticky, then increases in
both revenues and costs that a price-level increase generates by raising
nominal product demands operate through quantity adjustments in product
and labor markets. In such a sticky-price/sticky-wage (SP/SW) sector, therefore, the predicted direction of the profit response to inflation depends primarily on relative responses of levels of output and employment. The basic
model in the Appendix indicates that, as long as the elasticity of output with
respect to labor is bounded below unity, the wage-bill response will eclipse the
revenue response, so that profits in a SP/SW sector will decrease. If the output
2011 The Authors
The Manchester School 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester
267
To accomplish our first task of classifying industries as sticky- or flexibleprice industries and sticky- or flexible-wage industries, we implement an
empirical model based on the exposition of Woodford (2003, p. 225), which
in turn is based on the analysis provided by Erceg et al. (2000). In general,
Woodford argues for relating wage inflation to the output gap, the negative
percentage deviation of real wage from steady state and expected future wage
inflation. Woodford also suggests that it is theoretically appropriate to relate
price inflation to the output gap, the negative percentage deviation of real
wage from steady state and expected future price inflation. Nevertheless, he
likens his model of price inflation to the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
(NKPC) model of Gali and Gertler (1999), which relates price inflation to a
measure of real marginal cost and to expected future inflation, an approach
we use because, as discussed below, we are able to construct industry-level
measures of real marginal cost.
Thus, for purpose of classifying industries as flexible/sticky-price and
flexible/sticky-wage industries, we consider the estimation equations
(1)
dpt = p + p st + Et [ dpt +1 ]
(2)
where dwt is contemporaneous wage inflation; GAP is the output gap calculated as the quadratically detrended log of real GDP; wt 1 + CPIt 1 wt 1 is, to
accommodate the timing of wage adjustment in the relatively high-frequency
2011 The Authors
The Manchester School 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester
268
Pt
VCt
AVCt Qt
= Pt
= AVCt
Rt
Pt Qt
269
270
NAICS
Subsector description
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
6
0
7
1
1
0
2
1
5
0
0
2
0
0
7
3
0
1
5
4
6
2
1
1
2
3
0
4
0
1
11
4
1
1
2
1
2
3
1
1
3
1
2
0
10
3
3
0
0
0
0
2
1
5
5
7
2
10
4
3
3
2
0
2
1
11
13
16
7
2
2
12
0
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
7
3
6
5
1
7
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
76
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
30
1
1
1
1
3
1
2
2
0
123
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
63
FP/SW, flexible price/sticky wage; FP/FW, flexible price/flexible wage; SP/SW, sticky price/sticky wage;
SP/FW, sticky price/flexible wage.
271
Table 2
Summary Statistics for eP and ew
Sector
Flexible price
Sticky price
Flexible wage
Sticky wage
Variable
Count
Median
Mean
Std dev.
Minimum
Maximum
ep
t statistics
ep
t statistics
ew
t statistics
ew
t statistics
150
0.0955
2.99
-0.001
-0.065
-0.1275
-2.515
-0.0085
-0.175
0.2018
4.39
-0.009
-0.18
-0.1822
-2.87
-0.0022
-0.112
0.2405
5.94
0.0323
1.78
0.1824
1.80
0.035
1.04
0.025
0.75
-0.192
-8.89
-1.293
-10.98
-0.054
-4.96
0.944
55.5
0.024
6.67
-0.055
-0.66
0.12
2.75
142
148
144
MARGIN i ,t = + t + yt Y + tT + D j t J + i ,t
(3)
j =1
272
have the lowest, negative responses of mark-ups to inflation. The other two
groups, flexible price/flexible wage and sticky price/sticky wage, would fall
somewhere in between.
Table 3 shows the results of a fixed-effects panel regression based on
equation (3). The excluded dummy is sticky price/flexible wage, which is the
industry group hypothesized to have the lowest response of mark-up to
inflation.
The results displayed in Table 3 provide support for our hypotheses. As
predicted in hypothesis (i), mark-ups in flexible price/sticky wage industries
do exhibit a positive and significant response to inflation (0.270 - 0.173 =
0.097). For flexible price/flexible wage industries, there is no conclusive result
on the response of mark-ups to the level of inflation, which is consistent with
the theoretically ambiguous hypothesis (ii)s prediction regarding the impact
of inflation on profit shares of firms in such industries.
Hypothesis (iii)s key prediction that mark-ups in sticky price/flexible
wage industries should respond negatively to inflation is supported by the
negative and significant coefficient on the omitted SP/FW sector (-0.173).
There is support for the additional prediction that mark-ups in sticky price/
flexible wage industries should exhibit a smaller response to inflation than in
sticky price/sticky wage industries. These mark-ups, however, exhibit slightly
positive responses to inflation (0.180 - 0.173 = 0.007), which is at odds with
the theoretically predicted negative response.
Table 3
Industry Mark-up Response to Actual Inflation
Fixed-effects panel regression, equation (3)
Dependent variable: Gross margin
Inflation, all commodities PPI
Percentage change in real GDP
Time index
Interaction of inflation and dummy for flexible price/sticky wage industries
Interaction of inflation and dummy for flexible price/flexible wage industries
Interaction of inflation and dummy for sticky price/sticky wage industries
Constant
Observations
Number of NAICS industries
R-squared
Absolute value of t statistics in parentheses.
*Significant at 5 per cent; **significant at 1 per cent.
2011 The Authors
The Manchester School 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester
-0.173
(2.39)*
0.098
(1.63)
0.030
(26.58)**
0.270
(2.80)**
0.110
(0.91)
0.180
(2.07)*
24.870
(117.38)**
39952
292
0.02
273
Table 4
Industry Mark-up Response to Actual Inflation
Fixed-effects panel regression, equation (3)
CBO measure of output gap
Dependent variable: Gross margin
Inflation, all commodities PPI
Percentage change in real GDP
Time index
Interaction of inflation and dummy for flexible price/sticky wage industries
Interaction of inflation and dummy for flexible price/flexible wage industries
Interaction of inflation and dummy for sticky price/sticky wage industries
Constant
Observations
Number of NAICS industries
R-squared
Absolute value of t statistics in parentheses.
*Significant at 5 per cent; **significant at 1 per cent.
2011 The Authors
The Manchester School 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester
-0.328
(4.84)**
0.098
(1.63)
0.030
(26.62)**
0.574
(5.90)**
0.100
(0.94)
0.435
(5.17)**
24.864
(117.42)**
39,952
292
0.02
274
group, however, the single-equation estimation yields a negative and statistically significant estimated negative effect of inflation on the mark-up.
Although this result potentially could arise empirically since the theoretical
prediction is ambiguous, it contrasts with the statistically and economically
insignificant positive effects reported in Tables 3 and 4. Thus, we obtain
inconclusive overall results regarding the inflationmark-up relationship for
flexible price/flexible wage industries.
Overall, we find conclusive support for the hypothesized positive
response of mark-ups to inflation in industries with flexible prices and sticky
wages and predicted negative response of mark-ups to inflation in industries
with sticky prices and flexible wages. We obtain inconclusive or quantitatively small estimated responses of mark-ups to inflation for industries in
which both prices and wages are flexible or in which prices and wages are
sticky.
Conclusion
275
On net, the results are generally supportive of our overall hypothesis that
the relative flexibility or stickiness of product prices and wages play fundamental roles in determining the responses of firms mark-ups to inflation. Our
results indicate that mark-ups respond positively to inflation in industries
with flexible product prices and sticky wages and negatively to inflation in
industries with sticky prices and flexible wages. Responses are either inconclusive or muted in industries either with both sticky prices and sticky wages
or with both flexible prices and flexible wages.
Left unresolved by our analysis is the set of factors that ultimately
determine relative degrees of price and wage stickiness. Attempting to identify these determinants would be a useful agenda for future research.
Appendix
This appendix outlines a theoretical framework based on the models developed in
Duca and VanHoose (2000, 2001), which in turn extend and combine Ball (1988),
Duca (1987) and Duca and VanHoose (1991). There are numerous sectors in the
economy, indexed i, which are distributed uniformly along a unit interval. To preserve
tractability of the analysis, however, we follow Ball (1988) by assuming that within
each sector the numerous firms face a pool of immobile workers in perfectly competitive labor markets. Identical, price-taking firms within each sector produce an identical good. This good is differentiated from the goods produced by firms in other
sectors. The output produced by a given firm in sector i is given by
yi = li
0 < <1
(A1)
where yi is the log of output and li is the log of employment at firm i. The demand for
the output of a firm in sector i as a share of aggregate output is
yi y = i ( pi p )
(A2)
1
0
y= m p
(A3)
where we simplify by normalizing velocity at unity so that the log of velocity equals
zero. Henceforth, we also normalize the money stock at unity as well, so that m = 0.
In a sector in which both product prices and nominal wages adjust flexibly and
are determined in spot markets, a typical firms revenues in this sector are Ri = YiPi,
and its wage bill is given by Bi = WiLi, where upper-case variables denote the antilogs
of the variables in equations (A1), (A2) and (A3). Maximizing profits yields the labor
demand function (in log form) for a firm in sector i (with the intercept suppressed
because it plays no role in our subsequent analysis):
lid =
(wi pi )
1
(A4)
276
(A5)
where again we suppress the intercept term. Hence, firms within a sector value the real
wage in terms of the sectoral price, pi, received for their output, while workers who
purchase goods across all sectors value the real wage in terms of the aggregate price
level, p. When the nominal wage is flexible and adjusts to satisfy (A4) and (A5)
simultaneously, its equilibrium value is
wi* = pi*
( pi* p )
(1 ) + 1
(A6)
where an asterisk denotes the solution for a spot-market value. Substituting equation (A6) into either (A5) or (A4) then yields equilibrium employment in a sector with
a spot labor market:
li* =
( pi* p )
(1 ) + 1
(A7)
which implies from equation (A1) that output equals yi* = li*. In this FP/FW sector,
the log of revenues is ri* = yi* + pi* , and the log of the wage bill is bi* = li* + wi*. Substituting into these expressions and differentiating with respect to p indicates that revenues rise more (less) than proportionately in relation to the wage bill in response to
an increase in the price level for a >(<) 0.5.
To examine the response of profits to inflation in flexible-price sectors of
the economy that exhibit short-term nominal wage rigidities, we assume that, at
a firm in a FP/SW sector, the nominal wage is fixed at a value w i . Hence, the labor
supply relationship in equation (A5) becomes irrelevant, with the labor demand
function in equation (A4) determining employment (in terms of the sectoral price) at
this fixed wage and output following immediately via equation (A1). Substituting
this output level into (A2) yields an expression for the market-clearing sectoral
price:
p i =
(1 ) ( i 1) p w i
(1 ) i
(A8)
where the ~ denotes the solution in this sticky-wage sector. Substituting equation (A8) and the fixed nominal wage w i into (A4) yields the following expression for
employment:
(1 ) ( i 1) p w i
li =
(1 )[(1 ) i ]
(A9)
where again the output solution for this flexible-price/sticky-wage case follows directly
from equation (A1). After using the above to compute the log of revenues, ri = yi + p i ,
and the log of the wage bill, bi = li + w i , and differentiating with respect to p indicates
that ri p > bi p as long as aei > 1 - a, which is satisfied for a very wide range of
parameter values for which product demands are relatively elastic and the output
elasticity with respect to labor is relatively close to unity. Thus, the model predicts that
profits in FP/SW sectors generally increase as a result of a rise in the economy-wide
price level.
2011 The Authors
The Manchester School 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester
277
yi = ( i 1) p i pi
(A10)
with an overbar denoting the solution for a sticky-price sector, with the quantity of
labor the firm employs to produce this output following directly from equation (A1).
Combining this quantity of labor demanded with the labor supply function equation (A5) yields the market-clearing wage rate:
wi =
( i 1 + ) p i pi
(A11)
Using these solutions in expressions for the log of revenues, ri = yi + pi , and the log of
the wage bill, bi = li + wi , differentiating with respect to p unambiguously yields
ri p < bi p for a SP/FW sector in this basic model of price-taking agents.
Finally, if both the sectoral wage rate and price are sticky, fixed at values w i and
p i in the short-run horizon relevant for the model, then the output solution is
analogous to equation (A10)except with a ^ applying in this caseand the
employment solution follows from equation (A1). It is straightforward in this case to
show that ri p < bi p as long as a, the elasticity of output with respect to labor, is
bounded within the unit interval, in which case employment and the wage bill ultimately are more responsive to an increase in the price level than output and revenues.
Thus, the model predicts that an increase in the overall price level unambiguously
reduces profits in SP/SW sectors.
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