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Abstract
Reservoir simulation to predict production performance requires two steps: one is history-matching, and the other is
uncertainty quantification in forecasting. In the process of
history-matching, rock relative permeability curves are often
altered to reproduce production data. However, guidelines
for changing the shape of the curves have not been clearly
established. The aim of this paper is to clarify the possible
influence of relative permeabilities on reservoir simulation
using the uncertainty envelope.
We propose a method for adjusting the shape of relative
permeability curves during history-matching at the coarse
scale, using the Neighbourhood Approximation algorithm
and B-spline parameterisation. After generating multiple
history-matched models, we quantify the uncertainty envelope
in a Bayesian framework. Our approach aims at encapsulating
sub-grid heterogeneity in multi-phase functions directly in the
coarse-scale model, and predicting uncertainty. In this sense,
the framework differs from conventional procedures which
perturb fine-scale features, upscale the models and evaluate
each performance. In addition, B-spline parameterisation is
flexible allowing the capture of local features in the relative
permeability curves. The results of synthetic cases showed
that the lack of knowledge of the subgrid permeability and the
insufficient production data provoked a substantial amount of
uncertainty in reservoir performance forecasting.
Introduction
SPE 94140
well.
The approach proposed in this paper aims at encapsulating
sub-grid heterogeneity in multi-phase functions directly at the
coarse-scale, and predicting uncertainty. The proposed framework also aims at avoiding those problems in the conventional
approaches discussed above which perturb fine-scale features,
upscale the models and evaluate each performance.
Furthermore, during the process of history-matching, rock
relative permeability curves are often altered to reproduce production data, although guidelines for changing the shape of the
curves have not been clearly established. In this paper, we employ B-spline functions to parameterise relative permeabilities
and try to clarify their influence on the uncertainty estimation.
B-spline parameterisation is flexible allowing the capture of
local features in the relative permeability curves, [9, 10, 11, 12].
We use a synthetic fine-scale model, which is small enough
to conduct flow simulations, and we assume that this is the
"truth". After generating multiple history-matched models, we
quantify the uncertainty envelope in a Bayesian framework.
We compare the pseudofunctions as the representative of
the truth with the relative permeabilities estimated using the
history-matching procedure, at the coarse-scale. This comparison allows us to examine how reasonable the estimation of
relative permeabilities is, in terms of encapsulating small-scale
heterogeneity.
Theory for History-Matching and Uncertainty Quantification
Bayesian Inference. Bayesian inference, [13], can be described by the following equation in the context of historymatching.
prob(m|o) = R
prob(o|m) prob(m)
prob(o|m) prob(m) dm
(1)
R
R R
R
where dm =
. . . dm1 dm2 . . . dmNm
for m = (m1 , m2 , . . . , mNm ). The vector m represents a set of
parameters which describes a reservoir model and the vector
o represents a set of observed data in the reservoir. Here, the
probability of the vector means the joint probability for all
components in the vector. The term prob(m) in Equation (1) is
the prior probability which represents our state of knowledge
about the model before making an observation, and the posterior probability prob(m|o) represents our state of knowledge
about model after making an observation. The likelihood
function, prob(o|m), is the probability that an observation is
correct given the model. This function is used to update the
prior probability. It implies how we should change the state
of knowledge of prob(m) as a result of making an observation
prob(o|m). The denominator in the right-hand side is referred
as the normalisation constant, since the sum of the posterior
SPE 94140
= S or = 0.2,
(2)
(3)
(4)
We use the oil rate and injector BHP as history data. To create a more realistic case, we added uncorrelated random noise
to the fine-scale data in the following way. We drew a set of random numbers rnd from a normal distribution, rnd N(0, 1),
and defined Observed Oil Rate and Observed Injector BHP:
(5)
(6)
The main task of this paper is to estimate relative permeabilities at the coarse scale through history-matching rather
than varying parameters at the fine scale. The correlation
length of the truth model is less than half of a coarse-scale
SPE 94140
N
Y
22q
22p
k=1
Here q0 and p0 represent the simulated oil rate and BHP respectively, and q and p represent the observed oil rate and BHP respectively. The subscript k = 1, 2, . . . , N represents the time
step. N is the total number of the time series data. As above,
q and p are the standard deviations of the data errors. Accordingly, the measure of misfit, M, as an object function can
be given in the least square sense by the following equation.
M=
N
X
(qk q0k )2
22q
k=1
(pk p0k )2
.
22p
(8)
n
X
cij N 4j (S w ) for i = o, w,
(9)
j=1
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Conclusion
SPE 94140
11. Subbey, S., Monfared, H., Christie, M. and Sambridge, M.: Quantifying Uncertainty in Flow Functions Derived from SCAL Data:
USS Relative Permeability and Capillary Pressure, Transport in
Porous Media (2005) accepted for publication.
32. Williams, G.J.J., Mansfield, M., MacDonald, D.G. and Bush, M.D.:
Top-Down Reservoir Modelling, paper SPE 89974 presented at
the 2004 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Houston, September 26-29.
12. Watson, A.T., Richmond, P.C., Kerig, P.D. and Tao, T.M.: A
Regression-Based Method for Estimating Relative Permeabilities
From Displacement Experiments, SPERE (August 1988) 3, 953.
33. Lee, S.H., Malallah, A., Datta-Gupta, A. and Higdon, D.: Multiscale Data Integration Using Markov Random Fields, SPEREE
(February 2002) , 68.
34. Tran, T.T., Wen, X.H. and Behrens, R.A.: Efficient Conditioning
of 3D Fine-Scale Reservoir Model to Multiphase Production Data
Using Streamline-Based Coarse-Scale Inversion and Geostatistical
Downscaling, SPEJ (December 2001) 6, 364.
35. Yoon, S. et al.: A Multiscale Approach to Production-Data Integration Using Streamline Models, SPEJ (June 2001) , 182.
36. Press, W.H., Teukolsky, S.A., Vetterling, W.T. and Flannery, B.P.:
Numerical Recipes in C, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
second edition (1992).
37. Ding, Y.: Scaling-up in the Vicinity of Wells in Heterogeneous
Field, paper SPE 29137 presented at the 1995 SPE Symposium on
Reservoir Simulation, San Antonio, February 12-15.
38. Durlofsky, L.J., Milliken, W.J. and Bernath, A.: Scaleup in the
Near-Well Region, SPEJ (March 2000) 5, 110.
24. Buckley, S.E. and Leverett, M.C.: Mechanism of Fluid Displacement in Sands, Trans. AIME (March 1942) 146, 107.
25. Barker, J.W. and Dupouy, P.: An Analysis of Dynamic Pseudorelative Permeability Methods for Oil-Water Flows, Petroleum
Geoscience (1999) 5, 385.
26. Barker, J.W. and Thibeau, S.: A Critical Review of the Use of
Pseudorelative Permeabilities for Upscaling, SPERE (May 1997)
12, 138.
27. Schumaker, L.L.: Spline Functions: Basic Theory, J. Wiley & Sons,
Inc., New York (1981).
28. Chierici, G.L.: Novel Relations for Drainage and Imbibition Relative Permeability, SPEJ (June 1984) , 275.
29. Firoozabadi, A. and Aziz, K.: Relative Permeability From Centrifuge Data, paper SPE 15059 presented at the 1986 SPE California Regional Meeting, Oakland, April 2-4.
30. Kyte, J.R. and Berry, D.W.: New Pseudo Functions to Control Numerical Dispersion, SPEJ (August 1975) 5, 269.
31. Pickup, G.E. et al.: Multi-stage Upscaling: Selection of Suitable
Methods, Transport in Porous Media (2005) 58, 191.
SPE 94140
coj max.
cwj min.
cwj max.
1
2
3
4
5
6
1.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.4
0.7
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.2
Frequency
Basis No., j
1212.29
260.08
190.64
138.35
35.07
0.1
0.0
1
10
1000
100
Permeability (mD)
10000
1375
550
450
Y (m)
350
250
150
Cell 5 (Producer)
Cell 4
50
Cell 3
0
0 X (m) 275
Cell 2
Cell 1 (Injector)
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1.2
Basis 1
Basis 2
Basis 3
Basis 4
Basis 5
Basis 6
400
Fine
Coarse Rock Curve
Coarse Pseudos
300
200
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
100
0.2
0.3
0.4
1000
2000
Time [days]
3000
0.5
Sw
0.7
0.6
0.8
4000
Figure 4: Oil Rate: Note that the curves of the fine-scale model and the
coarse-scale model with pseudofunctions are superimposed.
1.6
Pseudos
Rock Curve
Krw Min.
Kro Min.
Krw Max.
Kro Max.
1.4
460
Fine
Coarse Rock Curve
Coarse Pseudos
Relative Permeability
1.2
450
440
0.8
0.6
0.4
430
0.2
420
1000
2000
Time [days]
3000
4000
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Sw
0.6
0.7
0.8
10
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5000
400
Truth
Observed
Optimised
4000
300
Misfit
3000
2000
100
1000
2000
4000
Model Index
1.4
8000
6000
1000
2000
Time [days]
3000
4000
460
Rock Curve
Pseudos Cell2
Pseudos Cell3
Optimised
1.2
Truth
Observed
Optimised
450
Relative Permeability
200
0.8
0.6
0.4
440
430
0.2
420
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Sw
0.6
0.7
0.8
1000
2000
Time [days]
3000
4000
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11
400
Truth
Observed
P10
Mean
P90
0.5 1.0
0.0
Parameter 2
0.5 1.0
0.0
Parameter 3
0.5 1.0
0.0
Parameter 4
300
0.5 1.0
0.0
Parameter 1
200
100
0.5 1.0
0.0
Parameter 5
0.5 1.0
0.0
Parameter 6
0.5 1.0
0.0
Parameter 7
0.5 1.0
0.0
Parameter 8
1000
2000
Time [days]
3000
4000
1.4
Pseudos Cell2
Pseudos Cell3
P10
Mean
P90
1.2
Truth
Observed
P10
Mean
P90
450
Relative Permeability
460
0.8
0.6
0.4
440
430
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Sw
0.6
0.7
0.8
420
1000
2000
Time [days]
3000
4000