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  • Abundance Within Planetary Boundaries

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    gm2240
    715 vues77 pages
    by Professor Dr Johan Rockström, Executive Director of Stockholm Resilience Centre. About the lecture: Three recent scientific insights define our future in the 21st century, and reformulate the way we define sustainable development and our opportunities for meeting human needs in this crucial year when the global community will set a new post 2015 agenda and a new climate change agreement. We have (1) become our own geological epoch, the Anthropocene, where humanity constitutes the largest force of change on the planet, (2) we now face rapidly rising risks of inducing tipping points that could disrupt the Earth system and modern civilisations with it, and (3) the fundamental insight that the Holocene, our “Edens garden” of environmental stability over past 10,700 years is our unique and desired planetary state, defining our biophysical safe operating space. Combining these three scientific insights with our ethical responsibility of sharing equitably the remaining ecological space on Earth and respecting the right to development for all citizens, means that the world must develop within a safe and just operating space of a stable and resilient planet. Interestingly, this is not only humanity’s new grand challenge but also a grand opportunity.

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    by Professor Dr Johan Rockström, Executive Director of Stockholm Resilience Centre. About the lecture: Three recent scientific insights define our future in the 21st century, and reformulate the way we define sustainable development and our opportunities for meeting human needs in this crucial year when the global community will set a new post 2015 agenda and a new climate change agreement. We have (1) become our own geological epoch, the Anthropocene, where humanity constitutes the largest force of change on the planet, (2) we now face rapidly rising risks of inducing tipping points that could disrupt the Earth system and modern civilisations with it, and (3) the fundamental insight that the Holocene, our “Edens garden” of environmental stability over past 10,700 years is our unique and desired planetary state, defining our biophysical safe operating space. Combining these three scientific insights with our ethical responsibility of sharing equitably the remaining ecological space on Earth and respecting the right to development for all citizens, means that the world must develop within a safe and just operating space of a stable and resilient planet. Interestingly, this is not only humanity’s new grand challenge but also a grand opportunity.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    715 vues77 pages

    Abundance Within Planetary Boundaries

    Transféré par

    gm2240
    by Professor Dr Johan Rockström, Executive Director of Stockholm Resilience Centre. About the lecture: Three recent scientific insights define our future in the 21st century, and reformulate the way we define sustainable development and our opportunities for meeting human needs in this crucial year when the global community will set a new post 2015 agenda and a new climate change agreement. We have (1) become our own geological epoch, the Anthropocene, where humanity constitutes the largest force of change on the planet, (2) we now face rapidly rising risks of inducing tipping points that could disrupt the Earth system and modern civilisations with it, and (3) the fundamental insight that the Holocene, our “Edens garden” of environmental stability over past 10,700 years is our unique and desired planetary state, defining our biophysical safe operating space. Combining these three scientific insights with our ethical responsibility of sharing equitably the remaining ecological space on Earth and respecting the right to development for all citizens, means that the world must develop within a safe and just operating space of a stable and resilient planet. Interestingly, this is not only humanity’s new grand challenge but also a grand opportunity.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Téléchargez comme PDF, TXT ou lisez en ligne sur Scribd
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    sur 77

    Abundance within Planetary

    Boundaries

    IIASA
    12th March 2015

    Prof. Johan Rockstrm

    Stockholm Resilience Centre


    Photo: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

    43

    - 6 - 910
    2

    Photos: Mattias Klum

    The New Global Context


    Welcome to the Anthropocene
    Rising risks of tipping points
    Holocene our desired state of the Planet

    Great transformation to world prosperity on a stable


    and resilient planet

    Abundance within Planetary


    Boundaries

    Living in a world characterised by: super wicked


    problems

    World Economic Forum (WEF), Global Risks Report 2013


    Helbing, D. (2013)
    Globally networked risks and how to respond. Nature.

    Syria drought and the civil war

    An EAT perspective on the Great Acceleration

    Revised great acceleration figures generously provided by: Will Steffen, Wendy Broadgate, Lisa Deutsch, Owen Gaffney and Cornelia Ludwig, in prep (2014).
    Other Data Sources: Bach J.F., (2002). World Cancer Research Fund American Institute for Cancer Research, FAOstat, Land Commodities Research. Photo: atelierfood.se

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Earth System Impacts

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia

    GREAT ACCELERATION

    CO2 concentration
    Biodiversity loss
    Land degradation
    Water use
    O3 depletion
    ...

    1750

    1800

    1850

    1900

    1950

    2000

    2050

    Rising Global Risks

    Might the Earth System move


    to a new state?
    This would pose a severe
    challenge to
    contemporary civilization.
    Possibly a collapse?

    IPCC Projections
    2100 AD

    4
    3

    Global Temperature (C)

    Now
    0

    Source: IGBP.net

    2001

    2007

    2013

    Risks related to agreed global goal of 450 ppm

    Probability of
    Exceedance

    7%
    1,6%

    Average Global Temp rise at Equilibrium (C)

    Global Challenges Foundation

    45

    Photo: Mattias Klum

    Melt of Greenland ice


    shelf

    Boreal forest dieback

    Arctic sea-ice loss

    Permafrost and tundra


    loss?

    Atlantic deep water


    formation

    Boreal forest dieback

    Climate change induced


    ozone hole?

    Indian monsoon
    chaotic multistability

    Dieback of Amazon
    rainforest

    Change in ENSO
    amplitude of frequency
    Instability of
    West Antarctic ice shelf

    Sahara greening

    West African monsoon


    shift
    Changes in Antarctic
    bottom water formation?

    Global Tipping Elements

    Two giants colliding

    Photo: N. Wijkmark/Azote

    Are we leaving Edens


    Garden?

    The Holocene - Humankinds 10 000 years of grace

    Stockholm Resilience Centre and Rockstrm and others, Ecology and Society 2009:14

    Photo: Michael A. Stecker

    Human Prosperity within


    Safe Operating Space of
    Planetary Boundaries

    Planetary Boundaries
    A safe operating space for humanity

    Steffen et al Science 16 January 2015

    Global CO2 Emissions & Distribution (GtC)


    OCEAN
    S

    365 (335-395)

    ATMOSPHERE

    155 (125-185)

    TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS
    545 (230-250)
    240 (230-250)

    180 (100-260)

    150 (60-240)

    Pre-industrial
    Preindustrial

    1950

    1950

    1970

    1970

    1990

    1990

    Current
    Current

    A new direction: People and Planet

    Setting the agenda on Sustainable Development Goals

    The future of energy: an accelerating challenge


    IIASA & IEA, Global Energy Assessment Report (2012)

    Photo: commons.wikimedia.com

    Answering the challenge: green energy


    IIASA & IEA, Global Energy Assessment Report (2012)

    Solar PV installations leading countries

    Wind power in leading countries

    Photo: GreenGo Energy A/S

    New collaborations for global sustainability

    WBCSD, World Resources Institute & SRC

    Growth Without Limits

    Limits to Growth

    Growth within Limits


    Abundance within Planetary Boundaries

    Social Tipping Point?

    The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration

    Will Steffen, Wendy Broadgate, Lisa Deutsch ,Owen Gaffney and Cornelia Ludwig
    2015 Anthropocene Review
    Based on Steffen et al. (2004) Global Change and the Earth System

    More information

    www.igbp.net
    www.stockholmresilience.org
    www.futureearth.info
    www.globaia.org
    www.anthropocene.info

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