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Naturalgas,energysecurity,andtheEuropeanUnion
Formorethanaweek,muchoftheEuropeanUnionhasbeeninthemidstofaheatingemergency
causedbythenaturalgasdisputebetweenRussiaandUkraine.Manycommentatorssomeusing
languagereminiscentoftheColdWarquestionthewisdomoftheEUsrelianceonRussiannatural
gasforitsenergysecurity.
WhatappearstohavebeenforgottenbythesecommentatorsisthatthroughoutmuchoftheCold
War,theEU(ortheEuropeanEconomicCommunityasitwasthencalled)reliedonnaturalgasfrom
theSovietUnion.RegardlessofthetensionsbetweenEastandWest,thenaturalgasflowedbecause
ofasimple,symbioticrelationship:theEECneededthenaturalgasandcouldpayforit,whilethe
SovietUnionhadthenaturalgasandneededthehardcash.
ThisrelationshiplastedlongafterthefalloftheBerlinWallandtheeventualcollapseoftheSoviet
Union,withonemajorexception:thetransitpipelinescarryingRussiangasnowpassedthrough
countriesthatwerenolongerunderthecontrolorinfluenceoftheSovietUnion.Inthecaseof
Ukraine,aformerSovietrepublicwithtwomajornaturalgaspipelinescarryingthebulkofthe
Russiannaturalgas,thingschangedlittleuntiltheOrangeRevolutioninlate2004,whenthepro
RussianpresidentYanukovychwasreplacedbytheprowesternpresidentYushchenkoinearly2005.
Withinayear,theRussianenergygiant,Gazprom,wasthreateningtoturnoffthenaturalgasto
Ukrainebecauseofacontractualdispute.Fortunately,inJanuary2006,therewaslittledisruptionto
EUsuppliesofnaturalgas.
NaturalgashasrapidlybecomethefuelofchoiceintheEUitsusagehasdoubledoverthepast30
yearsandnowmeetsaboutonequarteroftheEUsprimaryenergyneeds.Thereareanumberof
reasonsforthis,includingtheenlargementoftheEUandthepushfornaturalgasasareplacement
forcoalforelectricalgenerationaswellasforprocessandspaceheating.
TheEUsheatingemergencywillrequirebothshorttermandlongtermsolutions.Intheshortterm,
everythingmustbedonetoresumetheflowofnaturalgasfromRussia:agreementsonpaperand
threatstosueGazpromandNaftogaz(Ukrainespipelinecompany)willdolittleastheycanbe
ignored.OnepossiblesolutionwillseetheEUpayingallorpartofUkrainesoutstandingdebtto
GazpromandpossiblysubsidizingUkrainiannaturalgasconsumptionuntilsomelongtermsolution
isfound.
AnylongtermsolutionwillrequiretheEUtoconsiderhowtoimproveitsenergysecurityandto
addressthefactthatRussiannaturalgasmeetsabout22percentoftheEUsnaturalgasdemands.
Oneoftheessentialcomponentsinimprovingenergysecurityistheapplicationofenergy
replacementpoliciesthatmustconsidersupply,infrastructure,andaffordability.
IftheEUweretoconsiderRussiaasecuresupplier(andUkrainespipelinestobeinsecure),itwould
benecessarytobuildnewinfrastructure,suchaspipelines,tocarryRussiannaturalgasandbypass
Ukraine.Severalsuchprojectsarealreadyunderway;forexample,onelineundertheBlackSeaand
anotherthroughtheBaltic.Inadditiontopipelines,GazpromcouldbuildLNGliquefactionfacilities
tocarrynaturalgastoexistingLNGgasificationfacilitiesintheEU.
EveniftheEUweretoconsiderRussiaaninsecuresupplier,theywouldbeforcedtorelyonRussian
naturalgasforthesimplereasonthattherearefewothersuppliesthatcanbeaccessed.Production
fromtheEUstwomajornaturalgasproducers,theUKandtheNetherlands,haspeaked,meaning
thatthesesourcesmustalsobereplaced.SubseapipelinesfromNorway,Algeria,andLibyaalready
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existorareplanned,whilemoreLNGfromNigeriawillbeneeded.WhetherRussiaisconsidered
secureornot,anumberoftheEUcountrieswillundoubtedlybuildstoragefacilitiestoholdnatural
gasduringthesummermonthsasameansofhandlingunforeseenshortagesduringthewinter.
Addingnewsupplyandinfrastructuretakesyearsanditsimpactmaybesmall;theplannedNabucco
pipelinefromcentralAsiaandIranavoidsRussiabutisntexpectedtobecompleteduntil2015and
willmeetaboutfivepercentoftheEUsnaturalgasneeds.
TheEUsinvestmentinitsexistingnaturalgasinfrastructuremeansthatitwilldowhateveritcanto
continueusingnaturalgas.Whensuppliesofnaturalgascannolongerbeconsideredsecure,there
willbeaconcertedefforttoreplacenaturalgaswithotherenergysources.Themostlikelychoice
wouldbeelectricitythescaleofthereplacementwouldprobablymeanalargescalenuclear
investmentorevenareturntocoal.Renewablessuchaswindmaymakesimilarcontributionswhen
advancesaremadeinenergystoragetechnology.
Energysecurityisimportanttothewellbeingofanysociety.TheeffectontheEUoflosingaccessto
securesuppliesofnaturalgasamplydemonstratesthisfact.
SubmittedtoGlobeandMail,15January2009.Unpublished

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