Environmental and Water Resources Engineering Section (EWRE)

and
Urban Water Research Group (UWRG)

Advanced modelling forecast and emergency

management of urban pluvial floods
February 8th, 2010

Prof. edo Maksimovi

(c.maksimovic@imperial.ac.uk)

Acknowlwdgements
Duan Prodanovi

Joo. Leito
Jaena Ryu
S. Boonya-aroonet
Lipen Wang
Nuno Simes
Susana Ochoa-Rodriguez
Danielle Skilton

Types of Urban flooding

Types of urban flooding :

Pluvial -> Originating from rivers

Coastal -> primarily tidal surges and
waves

Ground water flooding, slow and lasting
and finally

Pluvial (Surface) Flooding

covered by this lecture

Receiving
water
Catchment
boundary

Urban flooding happens September 2010 -Korea

2. Advances in surface runoff

modelling

Separate foul and

surface water drainage

Surface
flow

Inlet

Outfall

Industrial

Sanitary

Treatment
plant

Treated water

3. Pluvial flood modelling

State-of-the-art
MODELLING OF URBAN FLOODING;
BREAKTHROUGH
OR RECYCLING OF OUTDATED CONCEPTS?

Virtual reality in modelling

This was state of the art for years

Virtual reservoir
in the city
centre

Piezometric line

Pond delineation and link with network

1
2

Legend:

Subcatchment
3

Depression
Flooded area

5
6

1
Total rain
Flow in the sewer
Overflow from depression

Surface runoff
Effective rain
Outflow to the surface

2
3

Developments for interactions

Interactions of the
overland and sewer
flow during flood
period

Dual drainage model concepts

Approaches in surface flooding analysis:
Distributed modelling (surface only)
Interaction physically based surface runoff
with flow in sewers
Approximate surface delineation or
Spatial approximation dependent on DTM/
land use
Dual drainage concept
Effective rainfall

Bi-directional
interaction

Surface
component
Sub-surface
component

Sewer flow

AOFD approach:
Automatic Overland Flow
Delineation
AOFD methodology
Pond 3
(ii)

(i)
Pond 2
Manholes

(v)

Pond 4
(vii)

(iv)

(iii)

Manholes

(vi)

Pond 1

30 July 2002
1800 hours

(DEM), not filtered, 3D view

(DTM) 3D view

Tasks
Ponds (storage nodes)
Flow pathways (surface links)
Pathways geometry (drainage capacity)
Link surface system to subsurface
system (interface)
Contributing areas for sewer and surface
ponds (catchment delineation)
Generate input files for simulation model

Developments for the major system

Surface pathway network
Catchment boundary
The image cannot be display ed. Your computer may not hav e enough memory to open the image, or the image may hav e been corrupted. Restart y our computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, y ou may hav e to delete the image and then insert it again.

Z [m]

2.
Surface
Surface
pathways
pathways

V=f(Z)

Pond
Pond

Pond
Pond
overspill
overspill
2.
Pond
Pond
Pond
X [m]

3. Out
Out of
of

catchment
catchment

Pond
Pond

Pathways drainage capacity

Estimate shape of open channels

Pond or
node

DTM grid

1
2
3
4

Pond or
node

Cowes, Isle of Wight

Catchment area = 2.8 sq.km

LiDAR DTM(+buildings) 1x1m (reduced 4x4m)
Drainage network: 570 manholes + 576 pipes

Analysis of ponds
4088 ponds found

Removal of small ponds

Surface network

Rainfall and Flood Prediction

In flood forecast situations, one of the critical
aspects is the period of time available between
the acquisition of data, such as rainfall, and the
results obtained by hydraulic simulations.
AIM: predict in 15 minutes the flood magnitude
and extension that might occur for the following
3 hours.
Short term rainfall forecast
Runoff surface flood (our focus)

Short term rainfall prediction

Two approaches:
Use of raingauge network data
prediction

for rainfall

Integrated techniques over multiple scales for

short-term rainfall prediction

25

Via interpolation techniques, it is possible to synthesise

radar images based upon a network of raingauges

IDW

Kriging

A blend of interpolation techniques and time-series

forecasting

Spatial Rainfall
prediction based upon
raingauge only network
Predicted
Observed

42 Raingauge Stations in Great

London => rainfall rates available
every 30 min between
06/06/2006 and 19/10/2009

Interpolation with Kriging Method

SVM-based sub-hourly rainfall forecasting

Expected vs prediction

Expected vs 1st prediction

4

3.5

4
3
2

Series2

2.5

Series1

Series3

1.5
1

0.5

1st frequency (expected vs prediction)

Expected vs 1st prediction

3.5

1.2

3
1

2.5
0.8
0.6

Series2

Series3

1.5

0.4

0.2

0.5

0
1

10

11

12

Series2
Series1
Series3

Cascade-Based Rainfall Downscaling

Cascade-based downscaling techniques

km

10

3
0

km

2D + time rainfall downscaling (also known as string

of beads methodology)

RAIN EVENT 1st - 3rd OCTOBER 2010

Two consecutive events

Missing radar
data

Complete data from 3 raingauges in Redbridge (+ level gauges)

Radar data only for first/smaller event
Total Rainfall (mm)

RAINFALL CUMMULATIVE
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0:00:00

12:00:00

0:00:00

12:00:00

0:00:00

12:00:00

Time (minutes)
Starting time corresponds to 00:00:00 hours of Friday 1st of October 2010

Beal HS

Chadwell Heath

Ursuline HS

0:00:00

Cummulative Rainfall (mm)

RAIN EVENT 17th 18th JANUARY 2011

35
30
25
20
15

Two consecutive events

10
5

Complete data from 2 raingauges in

Redbridge (+ level gauges)

0
12:00:00 00:00:00 12:00:00 00:00:00 12:00:00 00:00:00 12:00:00 00:00:00 12:00:00 00:00:00
18/01/11
19/01/11
16/01/11 17/01/11

Time
Data shown: 13:00:00 15/01/2011 to 14:00:00 20/01/2011
Beal_HS_Cummulative

Radar data only for first event

Ursuline HS

WATER DEPTH

1400

Comparison Nimrod vs. Raingauges

1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

12:00:00 0:00:00 12:00:00 0:00:00 12:00:00 0:00:00 12:00:00 0:00:00 12:00:00 0:00:00
16/01/2011

17/01/2011

18/01/2011

19/01/2011

Cummulative Rainfall (mm)

Water Depth (mm)

1600

18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
04:48:00

Ursuline_HS_Raingauge
Ursuline_HS_Nimrod
Beal_HS_Raingauge
Beal_HS_Nimrod
06:00:00

07:12:00

08:24:00

09:36:00

Time (minutes)
Valentine Open Channel

Valentine Sewer

Cranbrook Sewer

Roding River

Time
17th January 2011

10:48:00

12:00:00

Integrated rainfall techniques over multiple

scales for short-term rainfall prediction
NOWCASTING

Short term flood prediction

Decrease of Hydraulic Simulation time
Both techniques allow to have very
detailed networks in vulnerable areas
and less detailed in other parts.
The 1D/1D is much faster than 1D/2D
models
Physical based models have the
advantage of being adjustable to future
changes in the area

Model Assembly
Rain and level gauges
trigger alarms (and provide
boundary conditions)

Short term rainfall

forecast
Short term flood
forecast
Emergency management
(alarm-awareness raising
and event management)

Pre - processing:
Primary Layers
(Field data)
Parameters affecting infiltration
(suitability categories)
Fuzzy Sets membership function
(0 - 255 standardisation)
Layers positively correlated with suitability

4. Simulate Source
Control application in
accordance with the
Characteristics of the
Simulation Model

5. Simulation output
to assess the effect
of s.c. application
POST PROCESSING

Reduction in

max H for 10T

Blue Green Corridors

and interaction with SUDS and
floods

Blue-Green Corridors
Catchment wide development, creating
connections between natural areas of habitat
along river corridors and green spaces with
urban flood management
Integration of sustainable drainage systems into
urban development
This provides surface water flood risk reduction
as well as enhanced aesthetics and amenity
provision

Problem Areas

Potential Blue-Green Components

CONCLUSION
Modelling and forecasting of
Urban Pluvial Flooding:
ART TO BE MASTERED

Thank you!
Prof. edo Maksimovi
c.maksimovic@imperial.ac.uk