T1practice 138 PDF

5th International Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) - Engage today to shape tomorrow
Brussels, 27-28 November 2014
ENERGY FORESIGHT, SCENARIOS AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

POLICY IN BRAZIL
Nathaniel Horner1
Antonio de Paula-Oliveira2
Richard Silberglitt1
nhorner@rand.org
aoliveira@cgee.org.br
richard@rand.org
Marcelo Poppe2
Barbara Rocha2
mpoppe@cgee.org.br
bbressan@cgee.org.br
Abstract
Brazil is a leader in renewable energy, but considering policies is critical to maintaining this leadership in
light of its strong dependence on hydropower for electricity, rising energy demand from economic growth,
and need to support the aspirations of a growing middle class. The Center for Strategic Studies and
Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE) is participating in ongoing prospective
studies of technologies to increase energy efficiency and maintain high levels of renewable energy, as
well as of carbon reduction scenarios to mitigate global climate change. This paper will apply scenario
analysis techniques to evaluate the effect of policy and technology development and implementation on
total primary energy consumption, economic efficiency of energy use, and decarbonisation of the fuel mix.
Scenarios of total energy consumption versus GDP growth per unit of energy and level of decarbonisation
from the International Energy Agency and from current Brazilian studies will be compared and developed
into meta-scenarios with policy ramifications. Finally, we will discuss the use of FTA to inform and support
policy decisions using these meta-scenarios.
Keywords: Energy, meta scenarios, policy recommendations
1 Introduction
Through both fortunate geography and fortuitous policy planning, Brazil is a leader in
renewable energy, having one of the least carbon-intensive economies in the world. Brazils
energy system is unique in several ways. First, the country currently gets three-quarters of its
electricity from hydroelectricity. Second, it has made a concerted effort to introduce sugarcanebased biofuels into the transport sectorfirst in the 1970s through ethanol-fueled vehicles, and
more recently (and more successfully) through blending requirements and flex-fuel vehicles,
which now constitute 50% of the passenger fleet.
Nonetheless, change could very well be coming. Rapid demand growth could pressure the
existing electricity supply system, which is already constrained by environmental laws that
makes it more difficult to further exploit hydropower capacity. Brazil experienced widespread
blackouts in 2001 due to low rainfall totals, leading to a surge in construction of natural gas
power plants. Recent discovery of vast deepwater oil reserves off the coast could further hasten
a swing back towards fossil fuels. At the same time, recent policy has created robust growth in
wind farm capacity, which is proving to be a strong renewable resource for Brazil.
The policies Brazil enacts in the near future could have a significant effect on whether the
countrys low-carbon leadership continues. The scenarios studied here aim to provide a better
1
2
RAND Corporation - Washington Office: 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, Virginia 22202-5050, USA
CGEE - Ed. Parque Cidade Corporate, Torre C, 4 andar, Salas 401 A 405, Braslia-DF, CEP 70308-200, Brazil
THEME 1: FTA AND INNOVATION SYSTEMS
-1-
understanding of possible Brazilian futures, as well as a comparison of Brazil to others in the

BRICS3 peer group.
2 Brazilian Energy History and Policy Context

In order to analyse scenarios for the Brazilian energy policy, it is important to understand
how Brazils energy matrix has evolved. Brazils favourable position as a low-carbon leader
results from key policy decisions taken over the past four decades. For example, after the oil
shocks of the 1970s, oil imports were reduced drastically, internal production increased, and fuel
blending mandates brought robust development of sugarcane ethanol, making Brazil selfsufficient in the transport sector.
Figure 1 shows Brazils energy consumption trend (top) and proportional fuel mix (bottom)
since 1970. As an emerging market, Brazil has experienced rapid growth in energy demand.
Since 1990, the countrys energy demand has doubled, reaching nearly 300 Mtoe in 2013, and
has outpaced GDP growth over the period, posting a compound average annual growth rate of
3.1% vs. 2.8% for GDP.
Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa
-2-
Figure 1: Brazil total primary energy consumption energy by source, 1970-2013. Top: consumption growth trend;
dashed line=GDP. Bottom: proportional fuel mix.
To meet this energy demand, Brazils energy sector has faced huge challenges to keep
growing its energy supply. Natural gas, oil, and derivatives account for 80% of energy supply
growth over the last ten years [1]. Nonetheless, renewable energy sources remain a strong
component in the domestic fuel mix, representing 41% of its total in 2013 (down from ~60% in
1970).4 This puts Brazil as one of the least carbon-intensive economies in the world, with a 1.55
tCO2/toe emissions factor versus the 2.37 tCO2/toe world average [1].
The 1988 Brazilian Constitution, enacted after two decades under a military regime,
placed natural resources, including hydraulic energy potential and mineral deposits, under
federal control and defined mandatory bidding processes for concessionaires to gain the right to
4
It should be noted that nearly half of Brazils 1970 energy consumption came from firewood and charcoal, which,
though renewable resources, can have large land-use consequences and is not carbon-neutral if replanting does not
occur. Nowadays only around 10% comes from wood, mostly based on fast-growth forest cultures.
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explore and exploit them, but this bidding process was not implemented until 1995. Seven years
later, the new government elected in 2002 revised the process. Federal control of the energy
sector has allowed Brazil to dictate its energy development. However, the resulting series of
changing legislation and new institutional organizations, while somewhat necessary to respond
to changing events, have created uncertainties for energy market players and investors.
Three main foci of Brazils energy policy have allowed it to maintain this decarbonized
footprint: biomass, hydropower, and energy efficiency. ProAlcool, a national program to increase
the use of sugarcane bioethanol in the national energy supply, was created in 1975 after the first
oil shock. The mandatory use of up to 25% of bioethanol (E25) in the gasoline-bioethanol blend
was a key factor for its market development, and a response to the rising prices of oil. Nowadays
over 90% of the new cars manufactured in Brazil are flex fuel (running indifferently with both E25
or E100) and bioethanol and bio-power from sugarcane accounts for 17% of the country`s
primary energy supply [1].
The increasing proportion of non-renewable supply over the 2000sparticularly from
natural gasis explained both by the lack of favourable meteorological conditions and by
barriers to hydropower expansion. A draught contributed to low reservoir levels and widespread
blackouts in 2001, which prompted construction of gas plants as a hedge against this risk in the
future [2]. Furthermore, about 70% of Brazils hydropower potential is located in the Amazon
region [3], where strict environmental legislation limits exploitation. Nonetheless, the IEA
estimates a further 67 GW of hydropower capacity is available outside of environmentally
sensitive areas and notes that run-of-river plants, rather than dams, may mitigate some
concerns (though such plants have different performance characteristics) [2].
The creation of PROINFA, an incentive program for new renewables in 2002, has
strengthened the development of competitive small hydro, bio-power, photovoltaic, and
principallywind power plants. Brazils next energy bonanza may in fact be wind; though winds
are seasonal, some wind farms regularly record extremely high capacity factors well in excess of
50% [2], [4]. The countrys installed wind capacity increased by 84% last year [4].
Regarding energy efficiency, two national programs were created: PROCEL5 for electricity
in 1985, and CONPET6 for oil and gas in 1991. The establishment of voluntary labelling (in
1986) and awards (in 1993) programs for appliances and equipment was followed by mandatory
minimum performance standards in 2001. Financial resources were provided, mainly by the
utilities, through the energy efficiency obligation introduced in 1998. The main policies
discussed above are summarized in Table 1.
Table 1: Principal Brazilian programs and legislations created since the 1970.
Year
Policy
Focus
1975
Decree 76.593
ProAlcool
Promotion of sugarcane
bioethanol
1980s
Petrobras &
Research Centers
R&D efforts
Deep water oil prospection

& extraction
Impacts and
Consequences
Bioethanol 20% of fuel
mix; Sugarcane 17% of
energy matrix
Self-sufficiency in oil
A Brazilian program for energy conservation created to promote the efficient use of electricity and to reduce costs
and sectorial expenditures for electricity.
6
A Brazilian program created in 1991 by Presidential Decree to promote the development of an anti-wasteful culture
in the use of non-renewable natural resources.
-4-
1988
New Federal
Constitution
1993
Law 8.631
1995/6
1996
1997
1997
1998
Laws 8.987 & 9.074

Law 9.427
Law 9.478
Law 9.478
Law 9.648
Mandatory bidding
processes for natural
energy resources
Tariffs fixation for the
power sector
Normative for
Concessions and
Permissions
Foundation of ANEEL
Electricity Regulatory
Agency
Foundation of ANP Oil ,
Gas and Biofuels
Regulatory Agency
Foundation of CNPE National Council for
Energy Policy
Free market for buying
and selling electricity
2002
Law 10.438
PROINFA promotion of
small hydro, biomass, and
wind
2004
Law 10.847
Creation of EPE Energy

Office
Appropriation of natural
resources by the federal
government
Transparency and costbased prices
Private and public
utilities under public
service regime
Fair rules for both
concessionary and
consumers
Expansion of the fuel
sector and reliability of
products
Inter-ministerial
coordination
Power sector
development and
consolidation
Lower prices: wind US$
55/MWh
Professionalization of
energy sectors planning
3 Methodology
To gain insight into the performance of the Brazilian energy system, we adopt a set of
metrics previously used to analyze the energy sectors of the United States and various countries
in Southeast Asia [5], [6]. First, we examine energy efficiency, the gross domestic product (GDP)
per unit of total primary energy consumption (TPEC), measured in 2013 US dollars per tonne oil
equivalent (toe).
We also look at emissions performance. We define carbonization, C, to be the ratio of
actual carbon emissions from the energy sector to the counterfactual carbon emissions if all
energy use was based on coal:
actual carbon emissions
= carbon emissions normalized to 100% coal =
!! !! !!! !! !!! !!
!! !
where tp, tg, and tc are the emissions factors for petroleum, natural gas, and coal, respectively, in
megatonnes carbon per megatonne oil equivalent (Mt-C/Mtoe), and Ep, Eg, and Ec are the total
primary energy from those same three fuel sources. E in the denominator is the total primary
energy use for the country; note that this term includes primary energy from all sources,
including renewables. Thus, this metric implicitly treats important Brazilian renewable sources
such as hydroelectric and biomass as having an emission factor of zero. This treatment follows
the convention of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in assuming that,
between harvesting and regrowth, annual crops have no net carbon emissions [7]. If biomass
crops result in land-use changes, then this assumption will not hold.
-5-
A country that consumed only energy from coal would have a carbonization of 1.0. We
then define decarbonisation as the inverse of C; therefore, countries with greener energy
systems will have higher decarbonisation (1/C) ratios. The final metric is carbon efficiency, or
GDP per tonne of carbon emitted.
We plot each of these metrics against total primary energy consumption for both historic
trends as well as various future scenarios to (1) get an idea of how productivity changes as
energy use changes and (2) understand if changes in energy consumption lead to changes in
GHG performance.
4 Scenario Definitions
In this analysis, we plot two policy scenarios specific to Brazil against three general energy
scenarios published by the IEA [8], which we describe briefly in this section.
4.1 Brazil Policy Scenarios

We focus on Brazil using new data from the Energy Research Company, EPE, outlining
likely futures under current policies, based on the 10-Year Energy Expansion Plan report [9],
and under adoption of new policies according to the Brazilian Energy Plan PNE 2050 [10].
4.1.1
Current policies scenario

The current policy scenario is based on the PDE 2023 [9], a ten-year energy expansion
plan, which forecasts changes to the energy sector through the year 2023 based on current
policies.
In liquid fuels, the scenario anticipates that Brazil will be one of the major world producers
and exporters of oil in ten years, producing 5 million barrels per day (bpd) and exporting 1.5
million bpd. The oil from offshore pre-salt basins will make the country a major producer and
exporter by 2023.
The growing demand for fuel by Otto cycle vehicles (4.1% annually) still leads to a
significant increase in the supply of hydrous ethanol fuel at an average rate of 7.6% per year.
Thus, domestic ethanol production is expected to grow from the current 28 billion litres to 48
billion litres in 2023. Natural gas increases net production to 134 million m3/day by 2023, a gain
of 150% over 2013 levels.
Brazils share of renewables in the fuel mix is expected to continue at around 42%, a level
well above the world average of 13% and the OECD country average of 9%. Despite the loss of
relative share of hydropower from 67% in 2014 to 60% in 2023, it is still expected that a
significant expansion of more than 28 000 MW of generation capacity will occur over this
timeframe.
The scenario also anticipates growth in other renewables as a result of recent policies.
Most significantly, a six-fold increase in wind farms capacity to 22,400 MW by 2023 is expected.
At this level, wind will comprise 11.5% of the installed generation capacity, reflecting the
competitiveness of this source in the decennial horizon. Furthermore, solar energy will reach
3500 MWaround 2% of the total installed capacity.
Finally, the scenario includes the expansion of 7500 MW thermoelectric power plants over
the last five years of the horizon in order to meet the growing electricity demand. Nevertheless,
the participation of non-renewable sources in the energy matrix is expected to fall from 17% in
2014 to 16% in 2023.
-6-
4.1.2
New policies scenario

The new policies scenario is based on the Brazilian Energy Plan, PNE 2050 [10]. In the
period 2013-2050, it is estimated that the total Brazilian energy demand will increase slightly
more than double compared to the base year, with emphasis on the advancement of natural gas
and electricity and the decline in consumption of oil and firewood/charcoal as shown in Table 2.
Table 2: Brazilian energy projections for demand within the context of new policies
2014
NON-RENEWABLE ENERGY
Petroleum and oil products
Natural gas
2020
%
38.60
%
42.20
2030
2040
%
42.3
41.7
2050
%
39.4
11.70
9.90
10.3
10.8
11.2
Coal and coke
6.40
4.60
4.5
4.4
4.1
Uranium (U308)
1.30
13.60
16.70
18.1
20.1
23.1
8.60
6.60
5.4
4.7
4.5
15.40
17.70
16.8
15.8
15.2
4.50
2.30
2.6
2.5
2.5
311.98
353.00
460.00
549.00
605.00
RENEWABLE ENERGY
Hydroelectric and electricity
Firewood and charcoal
Sugar cane products
Others
TOTAL (MTOE)
These results reflect the growing penetration of natural gas in the Brazilian fuel mix,
displacing the consumption of petroleum in industry and households (fuel oil and LPG, mainly).
The drop in the share of oil is also due to the penetration of biofuels in the transport sector,
particularly ethanol in individual transport vehicles. Firewood and charcoal also decline, resulting
from the substitution of coal in the steel industry and substitution of LPG and natural gas in the
residential sector. Other energy sources contributed marginally in the long run.
In terms of transport, the scenario includes ethanol-gasoline blend mandates of 18-25%
ethanol and voluntary fuel efficiency labelling for passenger light-duty vehicles. The mandatory
blend of biodiesel will also increase from the present day level of 5%.
With these projections in mind, the new policies scenario expects a 36% reduction in GHG
emissions compared with business-as-usual by 2020. The policy drivers for this reduction
include further implementation of the measures in the National Plan for Energy Efficiency, such
as the Brazilian Labelling Programme, the Energy Conservation Program, and the Energy
Efficiency Program, under which the utilities must spend >0.5% of their total revenue in energy
efficiency and >0.5% in R&D.
4.2 ETP Scenarios

The IEA World Energy Outlook publishes three future scenarios looking ahead through
2035: the current policies scenario, which extrapolates current trends forward in a business as
usual case; the new policies scenario, which includes adoption of pledges and other policies
currently under consideration; and the 450 scenario, which demonstrates what it would take to
have a 50% chance of limiting average global temperature increase to 2C long-term [11].
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The IEA published three similar scenarios corresponding to global temperature increases
of 6C, 4C, and 2C with a time horizon of 2050 in Energy Technology Perspectives report [8].
We refer to these as the ETP-6, ETP-4, and ETP-2, and they are broadly consistent with the
WEO current policies, new policies, and 450 scenarios, respectively [8]. For this analysis, we
use the ETP scenarios with the longer time horizon.
These scenarios report primary energy use by fuel type in five-year increments for various
countries and regions of interest. The main differences among the scenarios are the rate of
energy use increase (through efficiency gains) and CO2 emissions rates (through
decarbonisation). Though it is conceivable for GDP growth among different energy scenarios,
the ETP and WEO scenarios assume the same GDP growth in each case.
We use the ETP scenarios to compare Brazils possible future energy systems with those
of other countries.
4.3 U.S. EIA Scenarios

We also use two scenarios from the United States Energy Information Administration
(EIA) as a means of putting the ETP scenarios in context. The EIA issues an annual report with
results from the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that can run many different
scenarios for the U.S. energy sector. We show the Reference Case, which is representative of
current policies, and the GHG25 scenario, which represents unspecified policies resulting in a
carbon price of $25/t-CO2 beginning in 2015 and rising 5% annually, from the 2014 report [12].
5 Results and Discussion

Brazils trend and future scenarios for each of the three metrics of interest are shown in
Figure 2. We observe that Brazils energy efficiency, decarbonisation, and carbon efficiency
have remainedon averagegenerally stagnant over the past four decades. In fact, the more
recent trend over the past five years is retrograde, with decreases in all three metrics.
To better understand the decarbonisation rate, we recall the fuel mix proportions in Figure
1, showing that even though the energy demand has quintupled since 1970, the ratio of
renewable to non-renewable sources has flipped from 60%/40% to 40%/60%. Consequently, the
decarbonisation index has gradually declined.
We also noted in Figure 1 that energy consumption has outpaced GDP growth, leading to
the gradual decrease in energy efficiency since 1980 seen in Figure 2. Lack of growth in energy
efficiency is expected for an emerging economy, as the focus is on growth rather than efficiency.
As an example, Brazil has been involved in electrification projects for isolated populations over
the last 20 years, a policy that would be expected to initially add to energy consumption more
than GDP.
Of course, a large factor may simply be that Brazil started out with an efficient,
decarbonized energy system and focused its policies on maintaining it rather than driving
towards even greater improvements, balancing economic growth with energy development.
Indeed, a comparison with peer countries (Figure 3) verifies that Brazil remains a leader in all
three metrics. Its decarbonziation, in particular, is remarkable: under the ETP-6 and ETP-4
scenarios, none of the other countries will achieve Brazils present-day decarbonisation rating by
the year 2050. This decarbonisation is due to the large proportion of hydropower electricity
generation and early emphasis on biofuels. Furthermore, Brazil has the potential to improve its
performance even more despite continuing increases in overall energy use, whereas gains in
-8-
other countries (e.g., the U.S., China, and South Africa) are more dependent on flattening or
even decreasing energy consumption.
How realistic are such gains? The declining energy usage for some countries shown in the
ETP-2 scenario seems to be extremely optimisticparticularly with respect to declining energy
useso we benchmarked these scenarios against two U.S. EIA scenarios for the United States,
shown in Figure 4 [12]. The EIA reference case roughly tracks the ETP-6 case with respect to
energy and carbon efficiency but is closer to the ETP-4 scenario with respect to decarbonisation.
The GHG25 casewhich is the most aggressively green scenario reported by the EIAfalls
between ETP-6 and ETP-4 in energy efficiency tracks ETP-4 in carbon efficiency, and falls
between ETP-4 and ETP-2 with respect to decarbonisation. Importantly, none of the EIA
scenarios show the decrease in energy consumption implied by the ETP-2 scenario, and the
high levels attained on all three metrics in this scenario remain well out of reach in the GHG25
scenario. Certain aspects of ETP-4, on the other hand, do look reasonable.
While performing similar benchmarking for other countries is beyond the scope of this
paper, the U.S. results provide some basis for considering the ETP-2 scenario to be
aggressively optimistic. Our future work for Brazil involves looking at specific policy scenarios to
see if doubling the countrys decarbonisation measure by 2050 is within the realm of possibility.
-9-
Figure 2: Brazil energy system metrics, historic and future scenarios.
- 10 -
Figure 3: Brazil and peer country energy systems in future scenarios
- 11 -
Figure 4: U.S. and China energy systems in future scenarios
- 12 -
One useful tool for scenario analysis is the definition of meta-scenarioscreation of a set
of more generic, but uniquely identified, possible futures based on ranges of the various
published scenarios. Meta-scenarios help the discussion avoid getting bogged down in the
details of scenario-specific assumptions while preserving the general characteristics of various
possible future states of the system.
For Brazil, we define three meta-scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), which roughly
corresponds to current policies; A Greener Brazil, in which new policies are adopted to break the
stagnation and begin further decarbonizing the energy system; and Global Sustainability, in
which Brazil participates in aggressive worldwide efforts to limit temperature increase. We
present the three meta-scenarios, juxtaposed with the specific scenarios presented above, in
Figure 5.
The benefit of a meta-scenario approach is seen in the fact that the various individual
scenarios in cross boundaries of the more generic scenarios; for instance, in energy efficiency,
both ETP-6 and ETP-4 seem to point toward A Greener Brazil, but in decarbonisation the former
is more aligned with BAU. These individual differences may result from specific assumptions
within each individual scenario, but examining them in concert allows us to identify key
catalystsincluding policy decisionsthat will define the pathway ultimately taken. We discuss
these pathways in the next section.
Figure 5: Decarbonization in Brazil meta-scenarios. Black lines represent individual published scenarios for Brazil;
coloured regions indicate meta-scenarios.
- 13 -
6 Policy Implications
We noted above that Brazils energy system is remarkable. However, deviating from BAU
is dependent upon making further policy choices to support decarbonisation. While our analysis
comparing the WEO scenarios with detailed scenarios specific to the U.S. indicated that Global
Sustainability scenarios may be outside the bounds of most current policy forecasts, the fact
remains that some degree of further decarbonisation of Brazils energy system is possible.
Based on commonalities among the scenarios examined, moving away from BAU towards A
Greener Brazil depends on implementing policies supporting:
Continued hydropower development, most of which will be run-of-river technology

rather than dams;
Reduced reliance on road transport for freight, implying the need for investments in
Brazils underdeveloped transport infrastructure;
Increased use of biofuels in transport; and,
Increases in energy efficiency programs.
Moving further, towards Global Sustainability, requires more aggressive policies in the
above areas in addition to CO2 pricingnot only in Brazil, but elsewhere.
Examination of meta-scenarios allows us to develop signposts to determine which path is
currently being trod and warning of potential roadblocks. A few barriers to further
decarbonisation of Brazils energy system are:
Limited access to capital. Investments in hydropower projects, wind farms, and

transport infrastructure require construction capital. Another recession, or the
inability to bring in foreign investment, could make it more difficult to complete
these projects.
Inexpensive domestic fossil fuels. Competition from inexpensive domestic oil and
gas may make it more difficult for the government to justify higher fuel-blending
mandates for biofuels as well as put pressure on other renewables. While
deepwater extraction poses technical challenges, the shale gas boom in the U.S.
has shown how quickly access to fossil fuels can change the energy picture. The
Global Sustainability case involves reductions in petroleum use on the order of
10% in Brazil and 30% globally, which will not happen if gasoline remains a
competitive vehicle fuel.
However, the desire to support a strong domestic sugarcane industry may
counterbalance the push to use new oil production domestically. Brazils policies
which determine how the offshore pre-salt basins are developed and where the
products are sold will be important.
Droughts and climate change. The electricity crisis of 2001 demonstrated how
dependent Brazils electricity grid is on rainfall. Run-of-river hydroelectric plants
likely the dominant type to be installed in the futureare even more highly
dependent on rainfall. Any climate changes that reduce river and reservoirs levels
will force the use of back up thermal power plants.
Higher sugar prices. An increase in sugar prices could increase the price of ethanol
and minimize its share in the gasoline blend. Further, since much of the Brazilian
fleet consists of flex-fuel vehicles, and consumers can switch rather seamlessly
- 14 -
between the fuels, demand for ethanol would be expected to have positive crossprice-elasticity with gasoline.
Lack of a carbon price. The Global Sustainability case seems to require that a
carbon price be implemented in many countries within the next few years.
Brazils current policy trajectory (BAU) seems to be one of continued stagnation in

decarbonisationalbeit one in which the country remains a world leader in green energywhile
efficiency gains eventually take hold as the country becomes more developed. However, new
policies supporting more hydroelectric development, increased ethanol blending mandates, and
energy efficiency, coupled with infrastructure investment leading to structural changes in the
transport sector, can lead to further gains aligned with A Greener Brazil. Comparison with other
benchmarks indicates that the Global Sustainability scenario will be extremely challenging to
attain, requiring significant policy intervention.
In future work, we plan to examine more specific policy scenarios for Brazil, placing them
within the context of the meta-scenario framework we have described.
7 References
[1]
[2]
EPE, Brazilian Energy Balance 2014 Year 2013, Rio de Janeiro.

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and International Energy Agency, Brazil Energy
Outlook, in World energy outlook 2013, Paris: OECD/IEA, 2013, pp. 301417.
[3] EPE, Brazilian Energy Plan 2030, Rio de Janeiro, 2007.
[4] A. Spatuzza, Brazil wind capacity factor at 50%, Recharge, 21-Oct-2014. [Online]. Available:
http://www.rechargenews.com/wind/1380860/Brazil-wind-capacity-factor-at-50. [Accessed: 10-Nov-2014].
[5] R. Silberglitt, A. Hove, and P. Shulman, Analysis of US energy scenarios, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, vol.
70, no. 4, pp. 297315, May 2003.
[6] R. Silberglitt and S. Kimmel, Energy Scenarios for Southeast Asia, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, In press
2013.
[7] IPCC, Frequently Asked Questions: Q2-10, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Task Force on
National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, 2014. [Online]. Available: http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/faq/faq.html.
[Accessed: 08-Nov-2014].
[8] IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives 2014: Harnessing Electricitys Potential, 2014.
[9] EPE, Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan 2023, Rio de Janeiro, 2014.
[10] EPE, Studies of Energy Demand, Rio de Janeiro, Technical Note, 2014.
[11] Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and International Energy Agency, World energy
outlook 2013. Paris: OECD/IEA, 2013.
[12] EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC, Apr. 2014.
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5th International Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) - Engage today to shape tomorrow

Brussels, 27-28 November 2014

ENERGY FORESIGHT, SCENARIOS AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

THEME 1: FTA AND INNOVATION SYSTEMS

understanding of possible Brazilian futures, as well as a comparison of Brazil to others in the

2 Brazilian Energy History and Policy Context

Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa

THEME 1: FTA AND INNOVATION SYSTEMS

THEME 1: FTA AND INNOVATION SYSTEMS

Deep water oil prospection

THEME 1: FTA AND INNOVATION SYSTEMS

Laws 8.987 & 9.074

Creation of EPE Energy

= carbon emissions normalized to 100% coal =

THEME 1: FTA AND INNOVATION SYSTEMS

4.1 Brazil Policy Scenarios

Current policies scenario

New policies scenario

Coal and coke

4.2 ETP Scenarios

THEME 1: FTA AND INNOVATION SYSTEMS

4.3 U.S. EIA Scenarios

5 Results and Discussion

THEME 1: FTA AND INNOVATION SYSTEMS

THEME 1: FTA AND INNOVATION SYSTEMS

Figure 2: Brazil energy system metrics, historic and future scenarios.

THEME 1: FTA AND INNOVATION SYSTEMS

Figure 3: Brazil and peer country energy systems in future scenarios

THEME 1: FTA AND INNOVATION SYSTEMS

Figure 4: U.S. and China energy systems in future scenarios

THEME 1: FTA AND INNOVATION SYSTEMS

THEME 1: FTA AND INNOVATION SYSTEMS

Continued hydropower development, most of which will be run-of-river technology

Increased use of biofuels in transport; and,

Increases in energy efficiency programs.

Limited access to capital. Investments in hydropower projects, wind farms, and

THEME 1: FTA AND INNOVATION SYSTEMS

Brazils current policy trajectory (BAU) seems to be one of continued stagnation in

EPE, Brazilian Energy Balance 2014 Year 2013, Rio de Janeiro.

THEME 1: FTA AND INNOVATION SYSTEMS

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