Market Outlook 28-03-2014

Market Outlook
March 28, 2014
Dealers Diary
The Indian Markets are expected to open flat to positive tracking marginally
positive opening in most of the Asian markets.
Domestic Indices
BSE Sensex
0.5
US markets extended losses for the second day and finished lower Thursday, amid
concerns that improving economic indicators might force the Fed to start raising
rates sooner than anticipated. The Labor Department released a report showing
that initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a nearly four-month low to 311,000
in the week ended March 22nd, from the previous week's revised figure of
321,000. Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors released a report
showing that its pending home sales index dropped by 0.8% to 93.9 in February
after edging down by 0.2% to a downwardly revised 94.7 in January. The
Commerce Department also released a report showing an upward revision to
fourth quarter GDP growth.
Nifty
0.6
40
6,642
MID CAP
0.6
42
6,910
Indian markets saw further upside to close at fresh record highs on the back of
robust capital inflows from FIIs on expectations about the likely outcome of general
elections. Data shows that FIIs purchased shares worth nearly `11,700cr thus far in
2014.
Markets Today
SMALL CAP
68
6,917
(82)
9,989
BSE PSU
1.5
91
6,229
BANKEX
0.7
106 14,414
AUTO
0.5
68 13,111
METAL
(0.0)
(2)
9,539
1.3
118
9,389
(0.1)
(9)
8,714
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
OIL & GAS

BSE IT
Global Indices
Dow Jones
(0.0)
NASDAQ
(0.5)
(22)
4,151
FTSE
(0.3)
(17)
6,588
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
INFY
SENSEX
21,992
22,103
22,205
22,317
22,419
6,638
6,677
6,713
119 22,214
1.0
Hang Sang
6,603
(Close)
(0.8)
Nikkei
6,564
(Pts)
BSE HC
The trend deciding level for the day is 22,205 / 6,638 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 22,317 22,419 / 6,677 6,713 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
22,205 / 6,638 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct 22,103
21,992 / 6,603 6,564 levels.
NIFTY
Chg (%)
Straits Times
(5) 16,264
1.0
146 14,623
(0.2)
(53) 21,834
0.6
19
3,162
(0.8)
(17)
2,047
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
0.0
0.0
$53.6
WIT
(1.0)
(0.1)
$12.9
IBN
0.6
0.3
$44.0
HDB
0.8
0.3
$40.4
Shanghai Com
Indian ADR
News Analysis
RBI extends the transitional period for full implementation of Basel III norms to
March 31, 2019
Supreme Court proposes barring CSK from IPL Season 7
Lupin- Acquires a company in Mexico Pharmaceutical
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Net Inflows (March 26, 2014)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
FII
3,959
2,930
1,029
17,212
21,048
700
831
(131)
(3,601)
(7,462)
MFs
FII Derivatives (March 27, 2014)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
6,967
6,227
740
11,483
Stock Futures
12,724
12,439
284
35,070
Gainers / Losers
Gainer
Company
Loser
Price (`)
chg (%)
HDIL
54
8.4
Divis Lab
JPINFRATEC
19
6.0
MRF
National Alum
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
1,340
(3.2)
21,140
(3.2)
39
5.3
Zee Entert
271
(3.0)
IDFC
121
5.3
JSW ENERGY
57
(2.6)
IOB
50
4.9
Ranbaxy Lab
347
(2.3)
www.angelbroking.com
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,669
891
Declines
1,137
590
155
92
Unchanged
Volumes (` cr)
BSE
2,586
NSE
20,420
Market Outlook
March 28, 2014
RBI extends the transitional period for full implementation

of Basel III norms to March 31, 2019
RBI has extended the transitional period for full implementation of Basel III norms
upto March 31, 2019 instead of as on March 31, 2018. As a result the full
implementation of Basel III in India is now closer to internationally agreed date of
January 1, 2019. Also the capital conservation buffer (CCB) scheduled to be
implemented from March 31, 2015 would now begin from March 31, 2016 and
be fully implemented as on March 31, 2019.The Basel III compliant AT1
instruments issued before March 31, 2019 will now have two pre-specified triggers
a lower trigger at CET1 of 5.5% before March 31, 2019, after which this trigger
would be raised to CET1 of 6.125% of RWAs. On the distributable items front RBI
has prescribed that the dividend on common shares and perpetual non-cumulative
preference shares (PNCPS) to be paid out of the current years profit only. The
move to extend Basel III implementation deadline is positive for Banks (especially
PSU banks) as it provides a leeway for Banks already grappled with asset quality
stress.
Revised transitional arrangements
Minimum Capital Ratios
( as a % of RWA)
Minimum Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1)
Capital conservation buffer (CCB)
April 1,
2013
March 31,
2014
March 31,
2015
March 31,
2016
March 31,
2017
March 31,
2018
March 31,
2019
4.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
0.625
1.25
1.875
2.5
Minimum CET1+ CCB
4.5
5.5
6.125
6.75
7.375
Minimum Tier 1 capital
6.5
Minimum Total Capital
Minimum Total Capital +CCB

Phase-in of all deductions from
CET 1 (in %)
9.625
10.25
10.875
11.5
20
40
60
80
100
100
100
Source: RBI
Supreme Court proposes barring CSK from IPL Season 7

Supreme Court (SC) has made a proposal to Board of Control of Cricket in India
(BCCI) to bar India Cements IPL franchisee Chennai Super Kings (CSK) from
participating in the IPLs season 7 expected to begin on April 16th. The court made
this proposal yesterday while hearing a case on match fixing and betting which
have taken place during the past IPL seasons. The court had in its proposal to
BCCI asked whether CSK and another franchisee of IPL Rajasthan Royals could be
barred from taking part in IPL till this case on match fixing is over. The SC also
proposed to pass an order barring India Cements officials from getting involved
with the functioning of BCCI. SC is expected to pass an interim order on the case
today after getting the reply from BCCI. We maintain a Neutral Rating on India
Cements.
Market Outlook
March 28, 2014
Lupin- Acquires a company in Mexico Pharmaceutical

Lupin announced the acquisition of 100 % equity stake in Laboratorios Grin, S.A.
De C.V. (Grin), Mexico. The acquisition marks Lupins foray into the high growth
Mexican and the larger Latin American pharmaceuticals market. Mexico is one of
the fastest growing pharmaceutical markets in the world valued at over US
$13.5bn and growing at 9 10% annually. Incorporated in 1955, Grin is a
specialty pharmaceutical company engaged in the development, manufacturing &
commercialization of branded ophthalmic products. Grin is a leading ophthalmic
player and a trusted brand in Mexico. Laboratorios Grin recorded revenues of
approximately $28mn in CY2013 and has over 275 employees. The acquisition
will provide a lot of synergies to the company and add to its ophthalmic pipeline.
We remain neutral on the stock.
Economic and Political News
RBI rate hike to push cos over default cliff: India Ratings
Coal scam: Court fixes May 2 for consideration on charge sheet
Maharashtra remittances grow 12% from last year, cross US$1bn
'Chindia' still vibrant idea: Jairam Ramesh
Corporate News
Coal India sees production growing 6.7% next fiscal

Fortis gets into aggresive expansion mode
Infotech Enterprises to change name to Cyient Ltd
Reliance MediaWorks delisting exit price fixed at `61 per share
L&T wins housing contracts worth `1,981cr
NTPC plans to import 15mn tonnes of coal in FY2015
ONGC non-tax dole to govt touching `50,000cr this year
Sadbhav Eng bags `212cr highways project in Rajasthan
Shriram City's `200cr NCD to open on April 16
Wipro expands footprint in Scotland
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Market Outlook
March 28, 2014
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
March 28, 2014

April 1, 2014
April 3, 2014
April 4, 2014
April 8, 2014
3:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
3:00PM
UK
1:25PM
April 15, 2014
April 16, 2014
Mar F
(9.30)
--
4Q F
2.70
2.70
Germany PMI Manufacturing
Value
Mar F
53.80
--
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Mar
50.20
50.10
11:00AM
India
RBI Repo rate
Apr 1
8.00
8.00
11:00AM
India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
Apr 1
4.00
4.00
11:00AM
India
RBI Reverse Repo rate
Apr 1
7.00
7.00
1:25PM
Germany Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Mar
(14.00)
--
2:00PM
UK
Value
Mar
56.90
--
1:25PM
Germany PMI Services
Value
Mar F
54.00
--
5:15PM
Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
Apr 3
0.25
--
6:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Mar
175.00
190.00
6:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
Mar
6.70
6.60
2:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Feb
2.90
--
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Mar
(17.10)
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Mar
(3.70)
--
% Change
Mar
(18.10)
--
% Ratio
Apr 10
0.50
0.50
Mar
2.00
--
April 10, 2014
April 11, 2014
Value
% Change
GDP (YoY)
PMI Manufacturing
China
Exports YoY%
4:30PM
UK
BOE Announces rates
7:00AM
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
5:30PM
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Feb
0.10
--
2:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Mar
1.70
--
6:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Mar
0.10
--
12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Mar
4.68
--
2:00PM
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Mar
(34.60)
--
6:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Mar
1,018.00
--
6:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Mar
907.00
--
2:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
Mar F
0.70
--
6:45PM
US
Industrial Production
Mar
0.62
--
7:30AM
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Mar
9.70
--
% Change
1Q
7.70
--
Million
Mar
4.60
--
Thousands
Mar
440.00
--
S.A./ 1985=100
Apr
82.30
--
Apr 30
0.25
--
7:30AM
China
Real GDP (YoY)
April 22, 2014
7:30PM
US
Existing home sales
April 23, 2014
7:30PM
US
New home sales
April 29, 2014
7:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
April 30, 2014
11:30PM
US
FOMC rate decision
May 15, 2014
11:30AM
Germany GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
1Q P
1.30
--
2:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
1Q A
0.30
--
5:30PM
India
% Change
1Q
4.70
--
May 30, 2014
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Qtrly GDP YoY%
Market Outlook
March 28, 2014
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
4.0
8.7
6.5
5.8
0.4
(0.2)
(1.0)
(1.2) (1.3)
7.1
7.0
7.5
7.2
Mfg. PMI
Jan-14
Services PMI
58.0
6.4
5.9
4.6
Dec-13
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

60.0
4.8
Nov-13
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
(%)
7.0
Sep-13
May-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
(2.5)
Oct-13
(1.8)
(3.0)
Feb-13
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
(2.0)
Aug-13
4.5 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.8 4.7
8.0
0.1
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
56.0
5.2
5.1
4.7
54.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

Exports yoy growth
(%)
18.0
15.0
12.0
9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0
(3.0)
(6.0)
(9.0)
(12.0)
(15.0)
(18.0)
(21.0)
Nov-12
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
44.0
Jul-13
46.0
0.0
Jun-13
48.0
1.0
May-13
50.0
2.0
Apr-13
3.0
Dec-12
52.0
4.0
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
Imports yoy growth
Repo rate
(%)
9.00
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
3.00
Apr-13
5.0
0.6
Jul-13
7.0
1.0
Source: CSO, Angel Research
6.0
1.5
2.0
7.6
2.7
2.6
Jun-13
8.2
3.5
3.0
9.6
9.1
1QFY11
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Market Outlook
March 28, 2014
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
2.6
Japan
0.8
France
Germany 1.3
2.6
USA
2.7
UK
Thailand
5.1
Malaysia
5.7
Indonesia
2.0
South
Africa
7.7
China
4.7
India
Brazil
Russia 1.2
1.0
1.9
2.0
0.6
3.0
Exhibit 2: 2014 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
1.2
Japan
1.0
France
USA
UK
Thailand
Malaysia
Indonesia
Germany 1.4
2.6
2.9
South
Africa
1.9
7.3
China
5.2
5.1
India
4.9
3.0
Russia
5.5
2.5
1.0
Brazil
2.0
Source: IMF, Angel Research
16.4
12.5
13.0
15.7
13.1
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germany
13.7
15.0
Indonesia
Japan
12.8
South
Africa
13.7
7.9
China
France
14.5
India
Russia 1.8
Brazil
(x)
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
10.1
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
Market Outlook
March 28, 2014
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY14E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
165
3,207
1,696
1,983
14.9
14.9
7.7
8.8
21.4
18.7
4.4
3.8
22.4
21.9
2.0
1.7
United Phosphorus
Buy
184
250
7,891
10,091
11,302
16.5
16.5
19.2
22.5
9.6
8.2
1.5
1.3
17.0
17.2
0.9
0.8
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
386
440
6,598
3,445
3,945
16.6
16.4
22.3
24.1
17.3
16.0
4.8
3.8
31.1
26.3
1.8
1.5
Apollo Tyres
Neutral
155
7,835
13,395
14,352
13.3
13.0
17.0
17.9
9.2
8.7
1.9
1.6
22.7
19.8
0.7
0.7
Ashok Leyland
Accumulate
Automotive Axle#
Neutral
Bajaj Auto
Buy
Bharat Forge
Accumulate
Bosch India*
Auto & Auto Ancillary
23
22
6,000
10,007
11,873
1.0
5.0
(2.0)
(0.5)
2.3
2.4
(12.9)
(3.4)
0.7
0.6
361
545
739
984
9.4
10.4
15.5
29.8
23.3
12.1
1.9
1.7
8.3
15.0
0.8
0.6
2,039
2,450
58,992
20,418
23,659
20.8
20.3
116.3
135.8
17.5
15.0
6.1
4.9
38.1
35.9
2.4
2.0
401
470
9,327
6,339
6,593
17.0
17.3
17.6
20.9
22.7
19.2
3.7
3.2
17.2
18.0
1.7
1.6
Neutral
10,465
32,859
9,933
11,582
16.1
16.7
339.9
416.6
30.8
25.1
4.6
4.0
15.0
16.0
2.9
2.4
CEAT
Neutral
438
1,576
5,391
6,019
11.7
11.5
72.0
81.1
6.1
5.4
1.6
1.2
29.7
25.7
0.4
0.4
Exide Industries
Accumulate
117
131
9,958
5,730
6,508
13.6
14.3
5.6
6.8
20.8
17.3
2.7
2.4
13.4
14.5
1.4
1.2
FAG Bearings*
Accumulate
1,831
2,000
3,043
1,646
1,967
14.2
15.2
95.1
122.1
19.3
15.0
2.7
2.3
14.9
16.5
1.6
1.3
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
2,177
2,400
43,467
25,494
27,912
13.9
14.4
104.4
145.4
20.9
15.0
7.6
6.1
39.0
45.1
1.5
1.4
JK Tyre
Neutral
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy

Maruti
Accumulate
Motherson Sumi
Buy
Subros
Accumulate
Tata Motors
Buy
TVS Motor
Neutral
177
725
7,128
7,852
11.3
11.2
62.4
67.6
2.8
2.6
0.6
0.5
25.0
21.8
0.4
0.4
959
1,210
59,070
38,927
43,784
12.9
12.6
61.8
66.7
15.5
14.4
3.3
2.8
22.7
20.7
1.3
1.1
1,938
2,080
58,530
44,203
51,105
12.1
11.6
96.9
108.6
20.0
17.8
2.8
2.4
14.7
14.4
1.1
0.9
236
274
20,846
30,650
35,181
9.4
9.7
10.0
13.6
23.7
17.5
6.7
5.1
32.6
33.2
0.8
0.6
165
1,139
1,296
10.3
10.3
1.6
2.5
17.2
10.8
0.6
0.6
3.3
5.2
0.4
0.4
108,100 237,145 270,911
15.0
14.7
48.7
52.8
8.2
7.6
2.5
1.9
34.8
28.0
0.5
0.5
8,882
5.8
6.2
5.0
6.7
19.2
14.2
3.2
2.7
18.0
21.0
0.5
0.4
28
28
401
460
95
4,523
7,814
Capital Goods
BGR Energy
Accumulate
112
120
806
3,883
3,987
11.5
10.7
23.1
22.6
4.8
4.9
0.6
0.6
23.6
18.9
0.5
0.4
BHEL
Neutral
195
47,765
41,082
36,844
12.2
10.8
15.2
11.6
12.9
16.9
2.2
2.0
17.8
12.4
1.0
1.2
Blue Star
Neutral
198
1,776
2,941
3,099
3.4
4.2
6.0
9.3
33.0
21.3
4.1
3.6
12.9
18.0
0.7
0.7
Crompton Greaves
Accumulate
160
180
10,015
13,246
14,863
5.2
6.6
4.6
7.7
35.0
20.7
2.7
2.5
8.0
12.5
0.9
0.8
KEC International
Buy
66
78
1,706
7,709
8,507
6.2
7.0
4.7
7.3
14.1
9.1
1.4
1.2
15.3
15.3
0.4
0.4
Thermax
Accumulate
751
820
8,951
5,284
6,241
9.1
9.8
25.1
31.8
29.9
23.6
4.3
3.8
15.2
17.2
1.6
1.4
Cement
ACC
Buy
1,294
1,485
24,292
11,169
12,303
14.9
15.2
46.5
58.1
27.8
22.3
3.1
2.9
11.5
13.5
1.9
1.7
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
186
28,815
9,176
10,067
18.3
21.5
6.6
8.3
28.2
22.4
3.0
2.8
11.2
13.1
2.6
2.3
India Cements
Neutral
54
1,650
4,480
5,235
10.5
11.7
0.4
4.1
124.2
13.1
0.5
0.5
0.4
3.6
0.9
0.7
Market Outlook
March 28, 2014
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Cement
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
108
127
1,273
1,968
2,353
14.0
15.2
7.1
9.1
15.2
11.9
1.0
0.9
6.5
7.8
0.8
1.3
Ramco Cements
Buy
202
229
4,811
3,699
4,378
16.4
18.4
6.0
11.6
33.5
17.4
1.9
1.8
5.9
10.6
2.0
1.7
Shree Cement^
Neutral
5,354
18,653
5,741
6,648
23.7
23.9
208.0
270.3
25.7
19.8
4.2
3.5
17.4
19.3
2.9
2.4
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,987
54,481
19,983
23,360
18.2
18.1
67.3
75.8
29.5
26.2
3.3
2.9
11.5
11.8
2.7
2.6
114
156
2,810
7,273
7,970
30.4
30.4
24.3
28.4
4.7
4.0
0.6
0.5
12.2
12.9
2.6
2.6
48
10,663
13,509
15,701
25.8
26.9
0.1
2.1
480.5
22.9
0.8
0.8
0.2
3.5
2.7
2.4
1,275
1,435
118,200
66,667
74,669
10.0
10.0
46.9
52.0
27.2
24.5
3.7
3.4
14.2
14.5
1.9
1.7
Construction
ITNL
Buy
Jaiprakash Asso.
Neutral
Larsen & Toubro
Accumulate
Nagarjuna Const.
Buy
34
38
872
6,032
6,520
7.5
7.6
1.4
1.9
24.3
17.9
0.4
0.3
1.4
2.0
0.5
0.5
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
91
105
1,377
2,465
2,827
10.6
10.6
5.7
6.8
15.9
13.4
1.5
1.4
9.9
10.8
0.9
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
107
125
530
5,924
6,457
10.1
10.4
13.1
19.1
8.2
5.6
0.4
0.4
4.9
6.7
0.5
0.5
Axis Bank
Buy
1,430
1,827
67,163
18,955
21,663
3.4
3.4
128.0
148.2
11.2
9.7
1.8
1.6
16.9
17.2
Bank of Baroda
Accumulate
679
706
29,157
16,255
18,016
2.1
2.2
105.8
121.9
6.4
5.6
0.9
0.8
13.4
13.8
Bank of India
Buy
209
251
13,404
15,082
16,656
2.2
2.1
45.8
56.2
4.6
3.7
0.6
0.5
12.1
13.2
Canara Bank
Buy
246
285
11,359
12,414
13,429
2.0
2.0
49.7
53.6
5.0
4.6
0.5
0.5
9.6
9.5
Dena Bank
Buy
57
66
2,688
3,402
3,591
2.3
2.4
9.4
14.5
6.1
4.0
0.5
0.4
8.1
10.9
Federal Bank
Accumulate
92
103
7,874
2,838
3,135
3.0
3.0
8.9
10.1
10.4
9.1
1.1
1.0
11.4
11.9
HDFC
Accumulate
867
938
135,234
8,153
9,631
3.4
3.4
35.2
41.5
24.6
20.9
4.8
4.4
28.3
28.6
HDFC Bank
Accumulate
746
859
178,969
26,614
32,019
4.4
4.4
35.8
45.3
20.9
16.5
4.2
3.5
21.6
22.9
ICICI Bank
Buy
1,257
1,574
145,144
26,609
30,636
3.2
3.3
84.1
96.9
15.0
13.0
2.0
1.8
15.0
15.4
IDBI Bank
Accumulate
62
66
9,864
8,924
9,735
1.9
1.9
6.4
13.7
9.6
4.5
0.5
0.4
5.0
9.6
J & K Bank
Accumulate
1,494
1,636
7,241
3,086
3,481
3.7
3.9
245.9
232.9
6.1
6.4
1.3
1.1
22.4
18.2
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
227
286
11,448
2,166
2,567
2.4
2.4
26.4
30.3
8.6
7.5
1.6
1.4
19.0
18.9
Punjab Natl.Bank
Accumulate
680
758
24,621
20,760
23,179
3.4
3.4
99.1
145.6
6.9
4.7
0.8
0.7
10.9
14.4
South Ind.Bank
Buy
22
27
3,010
1,773
1,954
2.7
2.6
3.9
4.0
5.7
5.6
1.0
0.9
17.0
15.3
St Bk of India
Buy
1,768
2,035
132,009
67,630
76,248
3.1
3.1
138.8
221.5
12.7
8.0
1.3
1.1
9.8
13.8
UCO Bank
Buy
69
80
6,996
7,241
8,008
3.0
3.0
18.6
20.6
3.7
3.4
0.8
0.6
17.8
17.2
Union Bank
Buy
120
139
7,532
10,669
11,798
2.4
2.3
24.3
35.1
4.9
3.4
0.5
0.4
9.3
12.1
Yes Bank
Buy
402
457
14,487
4,405
5,222
2.7
2.9
44.9
50.0
9.0
8.0
2.0
1.7
24.9
22.7
Neutral
528
50,641
12,473
14,581
15.8
16.0
13.2
15.7
40.0
33.7
12.3
9.8
33.7
32.4
3.9
3.3
Financials
FMCG
Asian Paints
Market Outlook
March 28, 2014
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
OPM(%)
FY14E
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FMCG
Britannia
Accumulate
834
945
10,000
6,470
7,339
8.9
9.2
33.7
40.1
24.8
20.8
10.8
7.8
51.5
43.4
1.5
1.3
Colgate
Neutral
1,363
18,538
3,588
4,165
17.6
17.7
37.2
43.5
36.6
31.4
32.1
26.7
94.9
92.9
4.9
4.2
Dabur India
Neutral
177
30,927
7,074
8,135
16.8
17.1
5.3
6.3
33.4
28.2
11.7
9.3
39.0
36.8
4.3
3.7
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
4,298
18,074
3,603
4,259
13.8
16.6
119.6
149.8
35.9
28.7
11.1
8.9
33.8
34.3
4.6
3.8
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
760
25,862
7,801
9,094
15.0
15.5
23.0
28.4
33.0
26.8
6.6
5.5
23.1
23.7
3.5
2.9
HUL
Neutral
590
127,696
27,612
30,844
13.9
13.7
16.9
18.2
34.9
32.5
32.0
23.6
109.8
83.7
4.5
4.0
ITC
Accumulate
359
382
285,260
32,945
38,295
36.3
36.9
11.0
12.8
32.6
28.0
10.6
8.6
35.4
34.0
8.5
7.2
Marico
Buy
207
254
13,330
4,738
5,406
15.8
15.6
7.4
8.6
28.1
24.1
5.5
4.6
21.6
20.8
2.8
2.4
Nestle*
Neutral
4,758
45,876
9,190
10,590
21.9
22.5
119.1
146.4
40.0
32.5
19.3
14.1
55.0
50.2
5.0
4.3
Tata Global
Neutral
143
8,828
7,761
8,615
9.6
10.5
6.8
9.2
21.1
15.5
2.2
2.1
10.4
10.3
1.1
1.0
1,397
1,510
97,699
33,340
37,907
25.8
24.8
86.0
95.8
16.2
14.6
5.0
3.8
31.1
26.8
2.7
2.2
145
4,342
2,297
2,727
22.7
22.8
12.6
14.2
11.5
10.2
2.9
2.4
25.6
24.5
1.8
1.5
3,245
3,570
186,320
50,545
57,612
27.2
26.4
184.8
213.3
17.6
15.2
3.7
3.1
21.7
20.5
3.1
2.6
IT
HCL Tech^
Accumulate
Hexaware*
Neutral
Infosys
Accumulate
Infotech Enterprises
Neutral
320
3,581
2,203
2,559
19.3
19.1
26.0
29.4
12.3
10.9
2.3
2.0
18.6
17.9
1.3
1.0
KPIT Cummins
Neutral
160
3,105
2,692
3,050
15.7
16.6
12.8
16.3
12.5
9.8
2.2
1.8
19.5
19.7
1.1
0.9
Mindtree
Buy
1,332
1,620
5,545
3,020
3,513
19.8
19.9
109.2
125.2
12.2
10.6
3.1
2.4
26.1
23.2
1.6
1.3
Mphasis&
Accumulate
400
455
8,412
6,666
7,134
18.0
18.4
39.7
45.3
10.1
8.8
1.5
1.3
14.8
14.6
0.9
0.7
NIIT
Neutral
26
434
984
1,066
7.1
7.0
2.0
4.0
13.0
6.6
0.7
0.6
5.1
9.4
0.2
0.1
Persistent
Neutral
1,076
4,302
1,674
1,971
25.8
26.2
63.8
79.7
16.9
13.5
3.4
2.8
20.3
20.5
2.2
1.7
TCS
Buy
2,098
2,470
411,010
82,169
97,331
30.8
30.2
96.6
114.6
21.7
18.3
8.9
7.3
41.2
40.1
5.0
4.1
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
1,816
1,955
42,405
18,775
21,671
22.3
22.5
126.8
134.8
14.3
13.5
4.6
3.5
29.5
25.7
2.1
1.7
Wipro
Buy
545
660
134,484
43,764
50,307
22.7
23.7
31.4
37.8
17.4
14.5
4.0
3.2
22.5
22.2
2.7
2.2
D B Corp
Accumulate
309
350
5,666
1,876
2,086
27.1
27.7
16.8
19.2
18.4
16.1
5.5
4.6
27.1
25.8
3.0
2.6
HT Media
Buy
90
105
2,097
2,174
2,353
14.3
14.9
8.9
9.6
10.2
9.4
1.3
1.2
12.3
11.8
0.6
0.4
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
101
120
3,341
1,692
1,867
21.9
23.7
7.7
8.1
13.0
12.5
3.0
2.7
24.8
23.0
2.0
1.8
Sun TV Network
Accumulate
391
420
15,426
2,287
2,580
68.3
69.7
19.5
23.2
20.1
16.9
4.9
4.3
25.8
27.4
6.4
5.5
Coal India
Accumulate
280
313
177,079
67,779
74,606
28.2
30.0
23.7
26.4
11.8
10.6
4.6
4.0
34.4
40.1
1.7
1.5
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
15
18
516
1,976
2,017
14.4
15.3
1.2
2.1
12.1
7.1
0.1
0.1
0.7
3.2
0.8
0.6
GMDC
Buy
127
150
4,042
1,332
1,681
46.5
50.7
13.2
18.0
9.6
7.1
1.5
1.3
16.1
19.2
2.7
2.0
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
March 28, 2014
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Metals & Mining

Hind. Zinc
Buy
121
163
51,063
12,863
13,835
54.3
52.4
16.3
17.2
7.4
7.0
1.4
1.2
19.7
17.9
1.8
1.3
Hindalco
Neutral
125
25,849
89,198 101,309
8.6
8.9
10.8
13.5
11.6
9.2
0.7
0.6
5.8
6.9
0.8
0.7
JSW Steel
Neutral
996
24,074
46,117
48,969
19.5
19.5
86.6
98.0
11.5
10.2
1.4
1.3
12.2
13.0
1.0
0.9
MOIL
Neutral
244
4,095
1,036
1,064
44.8
44.0
26.0
28.4
9.4
8.6
1.3
1.2
16.4
14.6
1.6
1.6
Nalco
Accumulate
37
41
9,446
6,655
7,094
13.2
14.3
2.5
2.8
14.9
13.1
0.8
0.7
5.2
5.8
0.6
0.6
NMDC
Buy
135
165
53,484
11,372
12,198
67.4
66.8
16.3
17.2
8.3
7.9
1.8
1.7
21.9
22.1
2.8
2.6
SAIL
Reduce
63
56
26,185
45,080
52,477
9.0
11.5
3.9
6.3
16.2
10.0
0.6
0.6
6.1
6.1
1.1
1.1
Sesa Sterlite
Buy
182
204
54,090
66,982
72,995
34.1
33.8
18.1
20.5
10.1
8.9
0.5
0.5
7.0
5.8
1.2
1.0
Tata Steel
Buy
374
455
36,353 157,382 169,140
9.9
10.2
37.5
45.4
10.0
8.2
1.0
0.9
10.3
11.4
0.6
0.6
Cairn India
Buy
332
384
63,335
19,470
19,621
73.0
63.4
63.4
61.9
5.2
5.4
1.1
0.9
23.1
19.0
2.1
1.7
GAIL
Neutral
373
47,365
60,768
66,123
12.5
11.4
34.9
34.7
10.7
10.8
1.7
1.5
17.1
15.0
0.8
0.7
ONGC
Accumulate
325
365
278,182 183,197 199,862
31.2
34.7
31.2
36.8
10.4
8.8
1.6
1.5
16.6
17.5
1.3
1.1
Petronet LNG
Neutral
134
43,463
4.2
4.4
9.7
10.7
13.9
12.5
2.0
1.8
15.3
15.0
0.4
0.3
Reliance Industries
Buy
890
1,017
287,704 448,345 494,295
7.3
7.0
74.0
79.5
12.0
11.2
1.3
1.2
11.5
11.2
0.6
0.6
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
289
5,443
1,736
2,008
17.1
18.9
10.5
13.8
27.5
20.9
8.4
6.4
34.4
34.7
3.2
2.7
Aurobindo Pharma
Accumulate
532
581
15,506
7,718
11,296
26.0
14.0
46.7
32.3
11.4
16.5
3.9
3.2
41.5
21.3
2.4
1.8
Aventis*
Neutral
2,886
6,647
1,682
1,917
15.6
15.6
94.8
104.7
30.5
27.6
4.4
3.6
16.1
17.6
3.3
2.7
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
989
20,249
7,123
8,367
15.5
15.7
37.3
44.7
26.5
22.1
5.6
4.6
22.9
22.9
3.1
2.7
Cipla
Buy
387
496
31,073
9,706
11,400
20.6
21.0
18.5
23.6
20.9
16.4
3.0
2.6
15.4
17.0
3.0
2.5
Dr Reddy's
Accumulate
2,636
3,008
44,823
13,617
15,590
24.8
24.3
144.4
161.6
18.3
16.3
4.7
3.8
29.2
25.7
3.5
2.9
Dishman Pharma
Buy
83
117
668
1,331
1,464
22.5
22.4
12.9
14.6
6.4
5.7
0.6
0.5
9.5
9.9
1.2
1.0
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,547
21,577
2,538
2,640
19.9
19.7
59.0
54.5
43.2
46.7
10.8
11.0
25.0
23.4
7.8
7.5
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
132
1,219
747
906
15.3
16.0
5.9
8.1
22.4
16.3
2.7
2.4
12.5
15.4
1.9
1.6
Ipca labs
Accumulate
821
886
10,363
3,296
4,087
23.5
23.5
42.8
52.7
19.2
15.6
5.1
3.9
30.1
28.4
3.3
2.7
Lupin
Neutral
937
41,995
11,813
14,377
23.8
23.8
39.9
48.8
23.5
19.2
6.2
4.8
29.8
28.1
3.7
3.0
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
355
15,036
13,261
10,651
6.6
8.4
14.3
15.2
24.8
23.3
3.2
2.8
13.8
12.8
1.2
1.4
Sun Pharma
Neutral
566
117,307
14,510
16,450
44.0
42.0
26.6
25.2
21.3
22.5
7.3
5.7
36.4
28.4
7.9
6.7
Oil & Gas
10,054
37,312
Pharmaceuticals
Power
GIPCL
Neutral
65
976
1,339
1,402
31.2
29.8
10.2
11.1
6.3
5.8
0.6
0.5
9.2
9.4
0.9
0.6
NTPC
Neutral
115
94,823
73,564
78,676
24.7
23.7
13.1
12.8
8.8
9.0
1.1
1.0
12.7
11.6
2.0
2.0
Market Outlook
March 28, 2014
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Buy
364
478
1,487
888
1,002
27.0
29.9
33.9
42.1
10.7
8.7
1.1
1.0
9.9
11.2
2.3
2.0
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
299
119,422
86,199
94,347
32.1
32.5
7.2
14.1
41.3
21.2
2.2
2.0
5.4
9.7
2.1
1.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
135
44,927
26,232
28,312
31.3
31.6
5.6
6.9
24.0
19.7
2.8
2.4
11.4
12.2
2.1
1.9
Rcom
Neutral
122
25,150
21,818
24,183
33.0
33.7
3.6
5.9
33.7
20.7
0.7
0.7
2.2
3.4
2.9
2.5
Real Estate
MLIFE
Telecom
zOthers
Abbott India*
Accumulate
1,725
1,779
3,666
1,996
2,184
12.3
11.9
80.1
84.7
21.6
20.4
4.2
3.6
20.2
19.0
1.5
1.4
Bajaj Electricals
Neutral
283
2,825
3,991
4,713
3.7
6.6
3.9
16.1
73.4
17.6
3.8
3.3
5.2
18.6
0.7
0.6
Cera Sanitaryware
Neutral
879
1,113
647
836
13.5
11.6
40.4
51.1
21.8
17.2
5.0
4.0
25.4
25.6
1.7
1.3
Cravatex
Neutral
259
67
248
284
6.5
7.3
27.2
38.2
9.6
6.8
1.5
1.3
15.7
18.5
0.4
0.4
Finolex Cables
Neutral
113
1,735
2,439
2,756
9.5
10.1
11.4
12.1
10.0
9.4
1.6
1.4
16.1
14.7
0.6
0.5
Goodyear India*
Accumulate
422
472
973
1,667
1,777
9.5
10.1
45.2
51.1
9.3
8.3
1.9
1.6
22.5
21.4
0.4
0.3
Hitachi
Sell
Honeywell Automation* Neutral
175
142
476
1,080
1,199
8.9
9.1
8.5
14.2
20.6
12.3
1.9
1.6
9.4
14.2
0.6
0.5
2,867
2,535
1,805
1,927
7.0
7.1
106.0
114.6
27.1
25.0
2.9
2.7
11.4
11.1
1.3
1.2
IFB Agro
Buy
171
249
154
504
580
10.6
11.2
32.6
39.9
5.2
4.3
0.8
0.7
17.3
17.8
0.2
0.1
Jyothy Laboratories
Accumulate
197
213
3,558
1,244
1,523
13.6
13.9
5.6
9.3
35.3
21.2
3.3
2.9
11.2
14.4
3.0
2.3
MRF
Neutral
21,827
9,257
13,240
14,229
13.9
13.8 2,061.1 2,269.5
10.6
9.6
2.1
1.7
21.4
19.3
0.7
0.7
Page Industries
Neutral
6,473
7,220
1,162
1,428
19.8
19.8
137.2
168.7
47.2
38.4
24.5
17.5
60.2
53.2
6.3
5.1
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
292
1,754
1,125
1,300
11.3
12.0
9.5
12.8
30.6
22.8
6.8
5.5
24.3
26.6
1.7
1.5
Siyaram Silk Mills
Accumulate
280
315
262
1,216
1,396
10.7
10.9
63.9
78.7
4.4
3.6
0.7
0.6
17.6
18.5
0.4
0.4
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
475
835
1,172
1,290
7.2
7.2
32.0
35.1
14.8
13.5
1.6
1.4
11.2
11.2
0.7
0.7
TAJ GVK
Buy
61
108
382
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
7.7
6.7
1.0
0.9
13.9
14.4
1.6
1.3
Tata Sponge Iron
Neutral
470
724
735
836
14.7
16.2
50.1
63.5
9.4
7.4
1.0
0.9
11.5
13.2
0.5
0.4
Tree House
Buy
248
313
922
154
206
54.1
54.0
12.1
16.3
20.5
15.3
2.5
2.2
12.0
14.3
5.7
4.1
TVS Srichakra
Neutral
299
229
1,628
1,781
6.6
6.6
44.1
51.5
6.8
5.8
1.2
1.0
18.3
18.4
0.2
0.2
Vesuvius India*
Neutral
463
940
600
638
20.1
19.4
35.7
36.6
13.0
12.7
2.3
2.0
19.4
17.1
1.4
1.2
HSIL
Neutral
127
840
1,638
1,814
14.9
15.0
8.5
10.6
15.0
12.0
0.8
0.7
5.0
6.1
1.0
0.9
M M Forgings
Buy
107
131
129
412
469
18.1
18.1
22.9
26.8
4.7
4.0
0.7
0.6
15.2
15.8
0.6
0.5
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on March 27, 2014
Market Outlook
March 28, 2014
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Market Outlook 28-03-2014

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Market Outlook

March 28, 2014

OIL & GAS

Net Inflows (March 26, 2014)

FII Derivatives (March 27, 2014)

RBI extends the transitional period for full implementation

Minimum CET1+ CCB

Minimum Tier 1 capital

Minimum Total Capital

Minimum Total Capital +CCB

Supreme Court proposes barring CSK from IPL Season 7

Lupin- Acquires a company in Mexico Pharmaceutical

Economic and Political News

Coal India sees production growing 6.7% next fiscal

Country Event Description

March 28, 2014

Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence

April 15, 2014

April 16, 2014

Germany PMI Manufacturing

RBI Repo rate

RBI Cash Reserve ratio

RBI Reverse Repo rate

Germany Unemployment change (000's)

Germany PMI Services

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

Industrial Production (YoY)

April 10, 2014

April 11, 2014

BOE Announces rates

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Industrial Production YoY

Consumer price index (mom)

Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%

Jobless claims change

Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

Industrial Production (YoY)

Real GDP (YoY)

April 22, 2014

Existing home sales

April 23, 2014

New home sales

April 29, 2014

April 30, 2014

FOMC rate decision

May 15, 2014

Germany GDP nsa (YoY)

Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)

May 30, 2014

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Qtrly GDP YoY%

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

4.5 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.8 4.7

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Imports yoy growth

Reverse Repo rate

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research